75% is 75% (fmpov). that's the rand percentage. it's an open set-up.

 

even if it were closed, that ratio is still typically in the high 60s to mid 70s in the vast majority of games. if you are a villager, the majority of other players are also villagers. the game is literally about an informed minority vs an uninformed majority.

 

how that taints my reads as a concept baffles me. 

You should just ignore the 75% is what I'm trying to say.

Everyone should start at 0 and as the game goes on they fall or rise however they may.

It's how I do things. Maybe I shouldn't try to force that on you though, you seem successful enough doing your own thing.

Just forget it. :P

 

Nolder, you lack imagination. Everyone still start at null in my book, since I get to define what "null" means. 

This is completely irrelevant to the game in any way, but fwiw, 75% is 0 - since you can't really "go into the negatives".  Cory saying somebody is 76% likely to be town isn't a super good thing; it means they're barely above the rand.  It would be equivalent to a 1 or 2, I guess, if you're doing it that way.

Unless you really are saying you shouldn't trust anyone and should be prepared to kill everyone, in which case lolred

I skimmed Clov´s posts. I can still see a possible connection between Clov and Ben. 

 

Does Clov usually post this much when he is mafia? 

More or less.  I died D4 as mafia in Key's 90's music with 310 posts (and was barely around).  I was, I believe, fifth in post count at the time.  Cory ran Mario Karts Wii, and I survived until endgame (D2) as scum; I was third and had 365 posts.  In my more recent offsite games, I finished an 8 player game third with 170 (BFG was town and finished second with 190) and did terrible, terrible things in a multi-factional game where I finished 2nd (to my scum partner) with 400.  

My post count is tied solely to my availability, not my alignment.

DJ

Sooh

 

LZM

Niniel

 

Ugh trying to order a list and ???

 

No real read on Nolder, dice or Ley, I ~like what Marsh posted but need more, I think sk could be town, but it's one of the hardest reads I've ever made, I'm not sensing any agony in Corys game yet, you're you and Ben is fluffy. Cory actually summed up my thoughts on Ben quite well

 

Okay.  I'm with you on a lot of that and have already said what I have to say about Ben/SK.  Please explain LZM to me, because you're the third person I'm at least remotely comfortable with who has said he's a townread and I don't understand what the hell I'm missing.  

And it doesn't bother you that corys read on you initially was 'town because you're making the reads you'd make as town?' Or words to that affect?

 

If that's what he had said, absolutely.  But it wasn't.

 

Cory can you talk through your read on Chris? 

 

I think he'd be making the reads he's made as a villager, liked some of his back and forth with me earlier, no issue with any of his content

 

Admittedly doesn't mean much

 

Cory can you talk through your read on Chris? 

 

I think he'd be making the reads he's made as a villager, liked some of his back and forth with me earlier, no issue with any of his content

 

Admittedly doesn't mean much

 

[unvote]

A FORMAL INVITATION

 

Cory, Nolder & LedZep invite you all cordially to join the Gentled Ben Wagon of Friendship and Tolerance™

 

Will take place at the "Tainted Minds" gallery at The Black Tower. It will begin with drinks & appetizers, followed by a formal lunching ceremony.

[v]Gentled Ben[/v]

I'm just here for the free apps.

I don't think either of you have done anything you couldn't do as scum, but although that makes me paranoid it doesn't make you scum

 

And so far I ~haven't felt the things I tend to when Chris is scum, so it could be that this is town! Chris and it's just been so long since we've been t/t I don't recognise it

Chris is playing a mafia game confirmed.

 

 

So I guess I'm not willing to vote SK.

 

I don't have any strong reasons to not lynch Ben, but the push on him feels wrong

 

But I don't really know where else to go

 

I don't trust Cory or Chris atm, but I'm not sure how much of that is caught up in paranoia

Who are you open to lynching?

I don't know?

 

Who is completely off the table for today?

So I guess I'm not willing to vote SK.

 

I don't have any strong reasons to not lynch Ben, but the push on him feels wrong

 

But I don't really know where else to go

 

I don't trust Cory or Chris atm, but I'm not sure how much of that is caught up in paranoia

Who are you open to lynching?

SK plays utr as mafia. His reads were logical and thought through and he dropped his thread presence when he was town read and gained credit for the AJ lynch. As town he's more willing to take risks.

Marsh may have a point about tone/attitude, its something I'm not brilliant at reading, but his mental position this game is 'doesn't care how he's read' which seems town for him (admittedly based of very few games mostly half read)

 

If he's mafia then he's basically acting in a way to screw with "meta", and based off the mafia QT in SS I'm not sure he'd do that when playing logically gets him town read by most people

 

So what reminds you of the games he was scum?

 

Ignoring meta what about his game this time makes sense as scum?

 

1) I'm not meta reading him.

2) What about his game this time makes sense as town?  The best argument I can make for him being town, independently, is that he spent the first half of the phase essentially trolling when he was more serious as mafia.  I don't know him.  I don't pretend to know him.  But as a rule, I subscribe to the theory that if you're going to be trolly and worthless (in the sense of not contributing anything) as town, you're probably willing to do the same as mafia.

Do I think he's tried being helpful?  No.

Do I feel he's made a genuine effort to understand others, or be understood?  No.

Do I think the weigh of his content justifies a town read?  No.

Do I believe HE believes what he's writing?  Could go either way.

I don't know if you're trying to make a point, ask a pointed question, or asking a genuine question.  I'm going to answer as if it's a genuine question - really, not a lot.  From what I can tell from skimming his ISO in your game, and what I know from Parable when I was still in, he wasn't around a whole lot.  There wasn't a ton of in depth content where it seemed like he was really making an effort to figure people out.  I don't feel he's done a whole hell of a lot of it here.

There does seem to be much less directness in this game than his previous games?  There was some of the "grand fluff" (for lack of a better term...not saying the posts were fluff...they were game related but...airy?  IDK), but it seemed less common.

 

 

Chris have you seen SK play before?

Literally, yes. He was mafia with us in Mafia Parable with you/me, where neither he nor I were really active, and I pretended to try to pay attention to your game.

So what about this game reminds you of that?

 

???

His interaction with SK is actually not what made me move off of him yesterday.  It was his approach to several other people, namely Cory.

 

 

[v]Gentled Ben[/v]

 

What else are you thinking right now?

 

Indeed, and why the vote on me? If it's to get a reaction, why not someone who does not already have a vote on them? 

 

I feel like Sooh, Nolder, and Clovdyx are solving the most right now. I don't know what to make of Sooh's read on Clovdyx, as I have a town feel for both of them, so I understand Nolder wanting to analyze the set up, but that's also a good place for a wolf to hide early on. Still, I feel like they are all pretty town. LZM feels right to me, but he hasn't posted much yet. Pending more content from SK, no one really seems scummy to me yet, but I don't like Cory popping in and dropping a second vote on me like that. Despite a few pages now, I do not have any solid reads, but I will OMGUS Cory for now.

 

[unvote]

[v]Cory[/v]

I realize it's entirely possible he gave out those reads as scum because he figured the three of us would be unlikely to get traction, but I felt good about Sooh and was warming up to Nolder.  I know I'm town.  Beyond that, I thought he called out Cory for something I certainly understand a newer, inexperienced player finding off.  I didn't really say anything to/about Ben prior to voting him.  Cory hadn't.  Now Ben has two votes and, presumably, no idea why.  That read like genuine confusion.  

He had a small discussion with Sooh about her peek on me, and questioned me about where I was voting when I said that SK was claiming scum.  Both came across as trying to generally understand the game, rather than just looking like he was interested.  

 

 

[v]Gentled Ben[/v]

 

What else are you thinking right now?

 

Indeed, and why the vote on me? If it's to get a reaction, why not someone who does not already have a vote on them? 

 

I feel like Sooh, Nolder, and Clovdyx are solving the most right now. I don't know what to make of Sooh's read on Clovdyx, as I have a town feel for both of them, so I understand Nolder wanting to analyze the set up, but that's also a good place for a wolf to hide early on. Still, I feel like they are all pretty town. LZM feels right to me, but he hasn't posted much yet. Pending more content from SK, no one really seems scummy to me yet, but I don't like Cory popping in and dropping a second vote on me like that. Despite a few pages now, I do not have any solid reads, but I will OMGUS Cory for now.

 

[unvote]

[v]Cory[/v]

 

 

Chris have you seen SK play before?

 

Literally, yes.  He was mafia with us in Mafia Parable with you/me, where neither he nor I were really active, and I pretended to try to pay attention to your game. 

 

Coincidentally, so was Ben.

Chris have you seen SK play before?

Literally, yes.  He was mafia with us in Mafia Parable with you/me, where neither he nor I were really active, and I pretended to try to pay attention to your game. 

 

IE - Ben does not care about this game, the reads he is making this game, or figuring the game out in any real observable way compared to how he has approached making reads as a villager in previous games. But he's acting like he cares, ie his posts suggest he's involved and his presentation is collected.

 

GFD.  Am I actually going to have to read a town game of his?

 

IE - Ben does not care about this game, the reads he is making this game, or figuring the game out in any real observable way compared to how he has approached making reads as a villager in previous games. But he's acting like he cares, ie his posts suggest he's involved and his presentation is collected.

GFD.  Am I actually going to have to read a town game of his?

I think he's proportionally more likely to be a villager than Ben

 

I think Ben is like > 30% likely to be a villager and SK is a hard 62%. You can see my problem in a numeric sense.

 

I really don't like any of Ben's posts and I've seen a few villager games where he's way more apt and thoughtful. Probably the most involved posts he's made this game were talking about his gun purchase. His reads are careless, responsive and have very little depth. Posts like #228 are filled with busy work but there's no background thinking to it besides a minimal re-purposing on his read on Sooh.

 

Bold - I don't see it.  I think we're probably going to have to agree to disagree about Ben (though fwiw I'm feeling less sure about him just because I have a decent sized group I do feel confident on).  I'm by no means prepared to say that Ben is definitely town.  But I wasn't sure about him early, he didn't react in a way I thought was scummy when people started looking at him, and tbh I have no problem with him taking that specific stance on SK when you consider how SK has played this game.  Once it was clarified that SK wasn't saying what Ben thought he was saying, Ben moved off.  No problem with that, either.

The only thing I have positive to say about SK is who is pushing him.  Prior to this morning when Iron started looking good, he was very much in my lynch pool, as are Leyrann and Dice.  The fact three of the people I'm feeling the "worst" about are all on one person doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence.  

I'm amending my "would rather lynch Ben than SK but wouldn't fight for SK" to "would vastly prefer to lynch Ben over SK, and will probably make that known as we approach EoD"

 

GLGL friends

Is this still about Ben or about SK?

Alternatively, is there a reason NOT to lynch SK?

 

Ben, do you want to lynch Cory?

 

I would be WTL Cory.

 

Also I got ninja'd five times while writing this post, I'm gonna post first then read.

 

1) Why?

2) Who are you NOT willing to lynch?

I didn't want to date you anyways, Iron.

It's...fine.  Really.  It's...it's not a big deal.  

After his argument with SK, I have zero interest in lynching Iron today.  

Rand was scummy. He wasn't scum, but he was scummy. In the same situation, I'd do exactly the same thing.

You are scummy. You may not be scum, but I'm still going for to try and lynch you.

Ignoring a really stupid TMI argument (that I don't believe is TMI), I think this is basically a perfect response.  Combined with everything else he said, I would wager very heavily on him being town.  Outside of BFG and maybe Sooh, he's my most confident read at this point.

 

 

I actually quite like what Marsh has done with his time, not sure I can read him from it, but I appreciate it <3

Same. I didn't like most of his early content, but he's been fine today

It's what happens when there's no longer a cute girl taking up 98% of my attention and relegating the game to the other 2%

 

Like there aren't cute girls in this game to take up your attention?

I'll refrain from saying anything I will be harassed into regretting later.  Again.

And ok, why did you want your vote on Ben at that time? I know you haven't pushed for it

Because he wasn't somebody I particularly trusted at the time for <reasons> and had been around recently so was worth kicking the tires on.

Where :( = why are you consolidating votes almost a day and a half before deadline

I don't expect you to believe this - because let's be honest, it's me - but I genuinely thought deadline was yesterday afternoon instead of today when I voted and expected the game to be mostly quiet yesterday (because, well, I've played mafia on DM before).

But tbf if I had known we had a day and a half, instead of several hours, I probably still would have moved it.  I didn't have a better candidate than him at the time, I didn't think Ben was the right place to be, and I didn't imagine I'd get any fun information by throwing another YOLO vote when I expected most of my question marks to be inactive.

 

 

[V]SK[/v]

 

This is actually less about him and more not wanting to vote Ben (n0 town). Outside of him, my Do Not Lynch pool is probably Niniel, BFG, DJ, and Sooh in that order. Maybe throw in Nolder if I'm feeling froggy

found it. like 10 pages ago on page 20/21

Chris, why did you start(?) the train on ben?

 

If by "starting the train", you mean voting him - because it's where I wanted my vote at that specific moment.  If you mean actually advocated for his lynch and urged people to move there...well, you can pretty clearly see that never happened.

 

 

[V]SK[/v]

 

This is actually less about him and more not wanting to vote Ben (n0 town). Outside of him, my Do Not Lynch pool is probably Niniel, BFG, DJ, and Sooh in that order. Maybe throw in Nolder if I'm feeling froggy

found it. like 10 pages ago on page 20/21

Chris :(

 

 

The question is "can we do better?"

A question I aim to answer

We have seven or so hours left and people are active, so a shift is possible for sure. I'm not particularly inclined to move my vote though. SK's posts here read a lot like those in Suicide Squad, which is my main motivation for wanting to lynch him. Resolving all the confusion is a bonus. 

 

How does he compare to WoT Kids?

The question is "can we do better?"

A question I aim to answer

I'm not thrilled about being on a train that's comprised entirely of my null reads, but I still would rather go with SK over a 50/50 on Ben.  

I think I would be lying if I said this isn't at least partly driven by not liking how SK has approached today.