[Standard] Final Fantasy VII Mafia - Mafia Wins D4

[Lizabeth]

Nyn, what do you think of Csarmi at this point?

[Lizabeth]

oh i forgot i multiquoted that first post. Cory. I am not a wolf. You need to start checking into someone else. Unless Clov was merciful and there's only 2 wolves (which I wouldn't bet a bent penny on)

k i'm going to bed...but just wanted to bring this forward since it seemed to get lost before.

 

Kat can you explain by what you meant by the bold? Why would cory sussing someone else other than you be dependent on there being more than one wolf?

[csarmi]

 

Interesting.

 

So what about Pray?

 

What about him?

 

 

Is he a wolf you think?

 

Also wanted to see if Kat switches to him seeing she has no traction on me.

[csarmi]

Just realized I made an assumption about the setup

 

Hah my assumption is Cory was an SK.

[csarmi]

Csarmi, what's your current lynch preference list?

 

Never lynching Nyn.

 

Can't read the rest of you. Probably (from most likely to be wolf from least likely)

 

Kat

Pral

Liz

 

But I really just don't have that much. Skimmed through the game first day. Read through a game once on second day. Got to half of day one yesterday-ish plus did some ISO'ing. I'm sure I'd need much more to formulate opinions that are actually relevant.

[csarmi]

 

Oh me and Pral.

 

Well certainly not me. Pral seems unlikely.

 

Why is Liz and Nyn villagers? 

Why am we not villagers?

 

 

I dunno. The way I see this game is that you need to find villagers. Go out and clear people. Due to being uninformed, villagers tend to do all sort of things that spew them town.

 

Well the way I work when I actually do work y'see.

[csarmi]

 

 

Salami, did you finish catching up?

 

Nope. And I don't think I will. Lost what little motivation I had, should be obvious why.

 

Sorry.

 

Whether you're town or scum, this is unfair.

 

Regardless of your alignment, you should expect to be suspected. Being questioned and suspected isn't an excuse to not try.

 

 

Umm what? Being (or not being) suspected has nothing to do with my WIM. You're misreading the reason.

[csarmi]

 

 

 

Oh me and Pral.

 

Well certainly not me. Pral seems unlikely.

 

Why is Liz and Nyn villagers? 

 

Explain

 

 

he looked okay, that's all

 

Same question to you - how many scum do you think are left in this game?

 

 

one

[csarmi]

 

 

That's where my thoughts were yesterday as well.

 

But how many other scum do you think are in play right now?

 

 

Likely one more. I think 3-8 starting combination would be quite overpowered for scum. 

Plus there was an extra kill D1. Either a 3p or an additional kill for scum. I would think the latter with 2-9 starting.

 

Okay. As I was thinking about it, I realized that there were two potentially negative utility roles on town side  and a weakish investigative role as well, so 9-2 probably does make more sense than 3-8

 

Okay, back to catching up.

 

 

Not sure how much setup talk helps here. But there is a famous setup that has tracker+jailkeeper and 5 villagers vs 2 wolves. Forgot the name and my google skills are low today.

 

This could be some sort of modification. 

[csarmi]

Nyn and Cory are both pretty much consensus town and therefore in my mind would have been more dangerous if I were scum. 

 

This line of thought (trying to figure out who the wolves killed and why) tends to hurt more than help. Wolves do all sort of crazy things and they have more information than us. For instance, it's very possible that Sooh has used her role cop action on BFG on N1.

 

(also BFG was the most consensus town)

[csarmi]

 

Just realized I made an assumption about the setup

 

Hah my assumption is Cory was an SK.

 

 

^^ just a pet theory but I sooo wish it was true :)

[csarmi]

 

Kat is one of those who I tend to always scum read, so she does tend to end up in my POE regardless. 

Your approach is very different from mine, and I still don't feel like you've given me an explanation regarding your progression on me and the EOD of D1 in general. 

Csarmi is down in POE basically because he was defending me, and then it felt like he needed to give people an opening or permission to vote me.

I guess I can see where this is coming from, since I was pushing Darthe and he ended up town. In my defense though, his D1 looked like nothing I would expect there at the end, and his white knighting Ironeyes before the claim just looked off to me.

 

I agree that Kat needs to be looked at more closely, but she's never around on the weekends. With Liz idk. She's such an unfamiliar player to me, and I don't know if her D1 was just her norm or whatever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What does bother me however is that after the Ironeyes claim she goes after saying how Darthe knew Ironeyes was a villager. Well how did she know? TMI?

No, if you remember I said there were two possible reasons why Darthe would be town reading Ironeyes:

1. Fellow wolf, wanting to keep the lynch off

2. Knowing he was a villager and wanting to keep his hands clean. 

 

I thought, ok, well even if Ironeyes is a villager, Scum!Darthe had his reasons to want to keep the lynch off of him, or at least not implicate himself in it. That's what I was alluding to.

 

Why did you follow Darthe's suggestion to vote Ironeyes instead of him?

 

Because I thought they were both wolves, so it didn't matter atp.

 

 

Okay, thanks.

 

What are your current reads right now? Top town and top scum.

 

I have Nyn and BFG as my top town. Towards the bottom I have Kat, you and Csarmi.

 

I have explained Nyn and BFG before. 

Kat is one of those who I tend to always scum read, so she does tend to end up in my POE regardless. 

Your approach is very different from mine, and I still don't feel like you've given me an explanation regarding your progression on me and the EOD of D1 in general. 

Csarmi is down in POE basically because he was defending me, and then it felt like he needed to give people an opening or permission to vote me.

These are pretty much the only post that Sooh actively references Kat.

The first one is a vague remark that she needs to look at kat closely.

The second is a statement that she needs to look at her closely.

In the third, she had kat as the lowest and the reason being she always finds her scummy.

 

IMO, The last two posts doesn't sound like a wolf-townie push. It is quite weak in itself.

 

What do others think - does this sound w/w or w/v?

 

 

I'm pretty sure Sooh/Kat had some interaction D1. Why leaving that out? Probably more relevant too as Sooh must have been in anti-spew mode D2. She was going down and she must have known it.

[csarmi]

Give me names of the people who thought she was scum. Who SAID "i think sooh's scum" and hadn't voted for her. 2 of the votes on her at day end were on me. regardless of where Cory voted at the end, there was a nice chunk that he was on me. 

 

It doesn't really matter. You think i'm scum. I'm not and you are wrong and you will see. Honestly with how you are acting i don't know if you've really just convinced yourself that much or if you are scum and trying to push a mislynch. IF there are 2 scum left, and I think it's entirely possible then maybe you are simply trying to get a mislynch and if that happens and scum gets a kill tonight that's pretty much the end of the game. with only 4 left. Think on that. 

 

There are 5 players alive right now. If there's two wolves living and we mislynch, we lose period. No night.

[csarmi]

hmm with just five players alive I only need to find one more villager

 

may just continue reading this on my way to work

[csarmi]

@Pral - what do you think of Cory's alignment right now and why?

[csarmi]

 

 

Nyn - I feel like she's similar to the hydra game we just played together. She points out things and follows up on things that she points out, and she has that level of sass I expect from her. I feel very good about her rn.

 

BFG - I probably feel the most comfortable with her besides Nyn so far. I think she's inquisitive and asking questions around the board. 

 

Darthe - He seems fine this game so far. Sort of skirting the middle of the line a little. I think I'm leaning town, with a slight tinfoil that he might be similar to the VS game where he wasn't showing much interest. I just don't know if staying around and forcing other people to attempt to read him with little information and being the center of attention = not showing interest, so that's why I have him as town for now.

 

Cory - I know he's super busy these days, but I find it a bit odd how there hasn't been more critical questions. I know he sometimes takes a while to warm up, so he's not in my lynch pool today, though he's right about that whole big expectations thing. I just feel that even as a wolf he would try harder, if that makes sense? 

 

Liz - I have no experience with Liz. From memory during the beginning of the game I felt her questions were kind of reachy, but we do seem to have a very different approach to the game as a whole. I'm cautiously optimistic that her line of questioning will actually lead to good things for town and not just be a way to place doubt in people's heads about different slots. 

 

Alanna - I dislike intensely the pushes to lynch Csarmi. I would always wait for mod intervention on that slot if he hadn't showed up. I also had slight pings over the Alanna/Darthe interactions like I mentioned before. My confidence in reading Alanna has never been very high, but I still think she's being scummy this game. 

 

I don't have a clear memory on the rest, so I'll have to go back and read now.

 

I have absolutely no idea what Darthe is doing right now, but it seems to be designed to take the pressure of Ironeyes and onto *whoever*.

 

[v]Darthe[/v]

 

 

 

 

Town darthe needs to warm up, get heated somehow. Wolf darthe is already there.

 

[v] sooh [/v]

if voting me because im pulling from marsh, why not just vote marsh?

 

I sure can if you prefer.

 

[v]Ironeyes[/v]

 

I think this progression is just TWTBAW. I mean literally no wolf would do this.

 

I kind of agree with Csarmi on this. I don't see this progression to come from a wolf. I mean, Sooh plays her game quite safe as wolf. This is unlikely in that aspect.

 

Okay. First of all, this quote summarizes my thoughts on Sooh D1. I still believe this makes sense (even though it turned out to be wrong).

 

 

Looking at Sooh's posts.

 

It is unlikely Sooh and Csarmi are w/w. The interaction between them is quite mundane. Neither a push not suport. She takes help of Csarmi's argument to support herself. If they were wolf together, she would have been more careful of those links and the effect she was looking for is more to take a support of townie's argument to save herself.

 

 

Cory Wtf is with Sooh Darthe progression? Also what do you think about Darthe?

Csarmi seems to have problem relaying independent thought this EOD. Constantly asking opinions.

 

 

 

Please explain to me how > pushing someone > having them claim PR > backing off saying you don't want to lynch an uncc'd PR is something only a villager can do

 

Please explain how Sooh reversing her read on Darthe after Ironeyes claimed and the wagons became pretty much Laine (who I was fighting as a wagon the entire day) and Darthe / Sooh was something she would only do as a villager

She reversed her read before Ironeyes claimed.

 

Exactly!

 

 

 

first I thought the two posts above kind of contradict one another but on a second thought they don't. So it seems this post is pointless.

 

 

So under your consideration Sooh would be more likely to avoid interactions with a scummate? Are you familiar with her scum meta? Because I asked earlier if someone was.

Well, I did play with her as scum in your game. She will have interactions with scummate, but it would be focused - either try to buddy or try to throw suspicions. In contrast, csarmi interactions looks simple and instantaneous.

 

and so is this

[Pralaya]

I'm pretty sure Sooh/Kat had some interaction D1. Why leaving that out? Probably more relevant too as Sooh must have been in anti-spew mode D2. She was going down and she must have known it.

My search showed me only these. Don't recollect any other interaction

[Pralaya]

@Pral - what do you think of Cory's alignment right now and why?

Town or 3p, not scum.

[Pralaya]

[v]kat[/v]

 

I am confident of nyn and csarmi being town. The only slots that I think could be wolf are kat or liz. Liz has been posting good and I don't really think she is wolf.

[csarmi]

My gut says Pral is trying to solve and is a villager. His posts feel good to me.

 

But I can't chase away the feeling that he could do all this as a wolf.

 

Going after Cory for credit? Sure.

Defending Sooh cause teammate? Certainly.

Finding a mislynch instead of Sooh? Now THAT he didn't really try I mean he did go after Kat. When did he do that? After or before BFG/me?

Clearing me for credit? Of course.

 

This isn't enough for me.

 

---

 

Nyn just did that sort of Nyn-posting that I associate with her villager game. When her posts make perfect sense to me and I can follow her line of thought, she's a villager.

 

---

 

I doN't feel qualified to judge Liz and Kat. I mean I can try but I have no meta, I don't know them at all and have no idea what they'd post and when and how. I can distinguish them by now.

 

Gun to my head Liz is a villager and Kat is a wolf.

 

I think I felt the opposite way earlier?

 

Goes to show how useful my reads are in that respect.

 

.........

 

I think I'll be back after lucnh once I've finished this project I'm working on.

[csarmi]

@Kat

 

Why aren't you voting?

[csarmi]

 

I'm pretty sure Sooh/Kat had some interaction D1. Why leaving that out? Probably more relevant too as Sooh must have been in anti-spew mode D2. She was going down and she must have known it.

My search showed me only these. Don't recollect any other interaction

 

I think Nyn quoted earlier. Or maybe Liz.

 

Lemme check.

[csarmi]

 

Alanna gets serious early as town, but I'm pretty sure she did as mafia in her PerC game, so not sure that by itself means much

 

I don't recall her having 'difficulty' with the joke phase of the game but she does relax a little later on this game

 

 

Alanna, can you expand on your 'if Cory carries on as he is and lynchee a wolf you'll lock him in as town' thought?

Idk, it's just something I've noticed as a scum sign recently, but of course the individual person's meta comes into play. I just never felt I had a good grasp on Alanna, and I feel like I'm scum reading her every game, so idk. It just stood out to me, especially with the "What does my being serious early tell you about my alignment" to Ironeyes. (Too lazy to look up actual quote)

 

 

I have one decent reason to think Kat could be town, but I need to check it against her mafia games :p

I'd love to hear when you've checked.

 

 

 

Bfg I didn't address Cory/darthe because darthe will always seem wolf to me because of the way he plays (belligerent, "all-knowing", uncompromising) and Cory will always appear town because of the way he gets so invested in the game. I'm horrible at reading both so I will comment very little on either, especially early unless they do something crazy.

Bold: I do hope you point out what you see, because even though you might not be able to reach conclusions on them it might help the rest of us some.

 

@Pral - this post and around these pages in particular. How does Sooh treat Kat and vica versa? Do they make sense to you as W/W? Would they make sense to you as W/V?

[csarmi]

One more post to tie Nyn.

[Nynaeve]

Kinky