[Basic] Pirates of the Caribbean (Curse of the Black Pearl) Game Thread - D2

[monstrman]

That doesn't make any sense and is also not how this game works

 

I'll let you in on a secret

 

 

all villagers suck pretty badly and your chance of having any two random people both be wolves even if you're a villager and even with confidence in reads is still exactly the chance of any two random people being wolves together. Which is nowhere near 50%, because people are only wolves 30% of the time to begin with. The statistic you are looking for is below 30% regardless of the confidence in your reads

 

[monstrman]

This game really does have both no focus and it also feels like no one ever playing at the same time

 

Village is going to have a hard time winning under these conditions

[monstrman]

Which brings me back to my day 1 post

 

"Lol d1 (and consequently d2 and most likely d3) wolfteams

[Darthe]

25% wolves actually, so 12.5% of being right at random if you state the names of two wolves.

[Believer]

That doesn't make any sense and is also not how this game works

 

I'll let you in on a secret

 

 

all villagers suck pretty badly and your chance of having any two random people both be wolves even if you're a villager and even with confidence in reads is still exactly the chance of any two random people being wolves together. Which is nowhere near 50%, because people are only wolves 30% of the time to begin with. The statistic you are looking for is below 30% regardless of the confidence in your reads

 

 

Fixed your spoiler for you.

 

I'm not sure how you think, to be honest.

I don't pick two random people, I pick two people who I think have a high percentage chance of being scum. Mafia is a game of probability, if we went purely by math and the setup we wouldn't be having this conversation, we'd all be rolling dice and voting for the outcome.

Of course math wouldn't say that anyone has a higher percent chance of being scum, but that's what we're trying to deduce with our minds.

 

You vote for someone if you think that it's +EV, aka a high percentage of being correct.

 

 

Saying "all villagers suck" is also a pretty bad statement, for obvious reasons.

[Believer]

25% wolves actually, so 12.5% of being right at random if you state the names of two wolves.

If only it was random.

[monstrman]

It's not a bad statement

 

It's a true statement

 

Villagersinbow are playing a game of probability. Even considering accuracy of reads it can only increase your chances of being correct by so much

 

Even the best villagers are wrong a lot. I fail to see how that's a bad statement.

[monstrman]

If only villagers were right 100% of the time

 

Oh that's right. They're not. because all villagers have a degree of bad reads due to the probabilistic and uninformed nature of being a villager

[Nynaeve]

Savvy Vote Count

 

Believer (2): manbat, Darthe

Darthe (1): Believer

 

Waiting for the opportune moment (8): The rest of you lot.

 

 

With 11 players alive, it take 6 to lynch.

[Darthe]

Luckily you have a near confirmed darthe who prob wont be NKd because wolves need to cop hunt, so we have that going for us.

 

We do need a wolf lynch today. If not nol then believe makes sense to me and idk where the sus should go

[Believer]

It's not a bad statement

 

It's a true statement

 

Villagersinbow are playing a game of probability. Even considering accuracy of reads it can only increase your chances of being correct by so much

 

Even the best villagers are wrong a lot. I fail to see how that's a bad statement.

This is gonna lead in to a meta-discussion of how we determine how good something is, which is pointless.

 

I'm just gonna say that I think that bad vs good is measured in comparison to eachother, not as a standalone performance. If the average person is correct 10% of the time and another player is accurate 20% of the time, then that player is good.

[Darthe]

 

Even the best villagers are wrong a lot. I fail to see how that's a bad statement.

Idk about uou but this gets used against me a lot

[monstrman]

You're arguing semantics at this point

 

I never said there's no such thing as a good player

 

I said even the good players are bad

[Believer]

Luckily you have a near confirmed darthe who prob wont be NKd because wolves need to cop hunt, so we have that going for us.

 

We do need a wolf lynch today. If not nol then believe makes sense to me and idk where the sus should go

Tell me more how you're confirmed.

[monstrman]

You proved it yourself with your own theory that yes, 20% is better than 10

 

But guess what 20% is still 20%

[Believer]

You're arguing semantics at this point

 

I never said there's no such thing as a good player

 

I said even the good players are bad

You really can't complain about semantics when you picked the least important sentence in my entire post and made an argument about it.

 

Good players are sometimes wrong so therefore they suck? Concede the point instead of arguing for the losing side.

[Believer]

You proved it yourself with your own theory that yes, 20% is better than 10

 

But guess what 20% is still 20%

If the average is 10%, then 20% is good, it doesn't suck.

[monstrman]

Good players are wrong a lot

 

So yes

 

They suck

 

Sorry, you're wrong. Being good at the game doesn't mean you have good reads all the time which is the point that I've been arguing since the beginning

 

You just decided to cherry pick the part where I said "villagers suck" and ignore the context of my argument the body of which states "werewolf is a game of probability and because of that villagers are wrong a lot"

 

Then you turned it into an argument about semantics when you know that what I'm arguing is irrefutable

[monstrman]

Just because my words aren't nice that doesn't mean it's less true

 

I also did not intend to imply there is no such thing as a good player, just tell you exactly what I've been reiterating this whole time and you've been ignoring to continue the argument about the definition of the word suck

[Believer]

Good players are wrong a lot

 

So yes

 

They suck

 

Sorry, you're wrong. Being good at the game doesn't mean you have good reads all the time which is the point that I've been arguing since the beginning

 

You just decided to cherry pick the part where I said "villagers suck" and ignore the context of my argument the body of which states "werewolf is a game of probability and because of that villagers are wrong a lot"

 

Then you turned it into an argument about semantics when you know that what I'm arguing is irrefutable

I think I'll let this stand. The thread can judge for themselves at this point. :D

[monstrman]

Yeah they can

 

Werewolf is a game of probability and you've shown that you can make arguments about one line of an entire post

 

Congratulations? You didn't succeed in refuting my point, just decided that due to your own connotation of the word suck that I was saying that there isnt variance in individual ability to make reads and I proved you wrong

 

You take losing gracefully

[Darthe]

 

Luckily you have a near confirmed darthe who prob wont be NKd because wolves need to cop hunt, so we have that going for us.

 

We do need a wolf lynch today. If not nol then believe makes sense to me and idk where the sus should go

Tell me more how you're confirmed.

Near confirmed, thats twisting.

 

Im viewed by a watched/tracker as not having done anything last.night. lessens the chance im a wolf by 1/3.

[Darthe]

This argument is a null distraction, and it looks like you're trying to derail the thread.

[Nynaeve]

Anyone wants to come with to Tortuga?  I'll make it a fun trip, promise.

[Zander?]

Anyone wants to come with to Tortuga?  I'll make it a fun trip, promise.