[Basic] Disney Heroes vs. Villains Mafia C9++ Town Wins

[Sooh]

We're down to 9 players now before the NK.

 

Presumably 

 

scum + SK + 7 townies.

 

D3 worst case scenario

 

scum + SK + 5 townies

 

Mislynch D3 means almost definitely a scum or SK win, unless they take eachother out.

[Shad_]

Or doc save or double tap. Basically with a little luck we can buy one mislynch but the possibility of losing via a mislynch tomorrow exists aorn.

[Sooh]

 

 

Scum Roles

TTTTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather

TTTTT = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TTTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker

TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

TT = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

T = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

0 Ts = Goon + Roleblocker + Godfather

I put in red the two options that are most likely for this game. We either have a goon and a SK or a Godfather and a SK left.

[Sooh]

Or doc save or double tap. Basically with a little luck we can buy one mislynch but the possibility of losing via a mislynch tomorrow exists aorn.

Yup.

 

My 1am math was correct?

[Sili Quirrels]

6 alive: if two 4 town 2 not then ya.

[Sooh]

6 alive: if two 4 town 2 not then ya.

What does this mean?

[Sili Quirrels]

 

6 alive: if two 4 town 2 not then ya.

What does this mean?

 

merely commenting on your 1am math.

 

it makes me depressed.

[Lenlo]

Wait how do we get to LyLo tomorrow Shad? Theres 9 people alive atm, 7 town 1 3rd party 1 wolf.

If two town die tonight, 5 town 1 3rd party 1 wolf.

Lynch a townie, 4 town 1 3rd party 1 wolf

2 town die the next night, 2 town, 1 3rd party, 1 wolf.

 

Wolves need parity and SK to be dead, SK needs parity and wolf to be dead. As is, assuming worst case scenario of wolf/SK hitting a townie every time and we lynch a townie tomorrow, I dont see how D3 is LyLo? Or am I miss counting here?

[Lenlo]

Even if you shoot someone and they flip town, resulting in 3 town deaths tonight, that still leaves us worse case at 1 town, 1 3rd party, 1 wolf on D4 right? So I dont see how tomorrow is LyLo. At worst, its the day before LyLo

[Darthe]

Which was kind of how he wolfed in Haunted Mansion. I don't think Sooh is a wolf, but I think it's entirely possible she's playing an SK role correctly and her partner is blowing it.

 

But we'll see.

Ya know, itd be a rare thing for me to actually blow a game. Derp, sure, but blow it? Not my forte.

[Darthe]

It's a perfectly acceptable tinfoil IMO to look at the vig critically, but I'm not there in my game yet.

I just skipped all the steps leading to it based on who it probably never is a la len, believe, etc.

[Darthe]

 

Which was kind of how he wolfed in Haunted Mansion. I don't think Sooh is a wolf, but I think it's entirely possible she's playing an SK role correctly and her partner is blowing it.

 

But we'll see.

Ya know, itd be a rare thing for me to actually blow a game. Derp, sure, but blow it? Not my forte.

If you missed it, im more offended by the concept of me being bad at this than the assertion im not town.

[Darthe]

It basically just boils down to Darthe either isn't reading the thread or else isn't putting one ounce of thought into his posts.

This would hold more water if you werent the one saying it imo. Still, if your point is that ive not read everything you arent wrong.

[Darthe]

Wait how do we get to LyLo tomorrow Shad? Theres 9 people alive atm, 7 town 1 3rd party 1 wolf.

If two town die tonight, 5 town 1 3rd party 1 wolf.

Lynch a townie, 4 town 1 3rd party 1 wolf

2 town die the next night, 2 town, 1 3rd party, 1 wolf.

 

Wolves need parity and SK to be dead, SK needs parity and wolf to be dead. As is, assuming worst case scenario of wolf/SK hitting a townie every time and we lynch a townie tomorrow, I dont see how D3 is LyLo? Or am I miss counting here?

We have two days minimum. If we have a vig holstering or letting town pick the shot is technically most +ev, though it may not be reliable.

[Lenlo]

I thought we had 2 days atleast, but Shad was talking like we might lose tomorrow which makes 0 sense to me.

[Sili Quirrels]

Even if you shoot someone and they flip town, resulting in 3 town deaths tonight, that still leaves us worse case at 1 town, 1 3rd party, 1 wolf on D4 right? So I dont see how tomorrow is LyLo. At worst, its the day before LyLo

you don't think 1 town and 1 sk and 1 wolf is bad?

 

maybe you're the sk after all.

[Sili Quirrels]

afaict we have one day most of the time, even if the vig holsters.

 

5 town and 2 not town means possibly 2 town after a mislynch which equates to our loss.

[Lenlo]

 

Even if you shoot someone and they flip town, resulting in 3 town deaths tonight, that still leaves us worse case at 1 town, 1 3rd party, 1 wolf on D4 right? So I dont see how tomorrow is LyLo. At worst, its the day before LyLo

you don't think 1 town and 1 sk and 1 wolf is bad?

 

maybe you're the sk after all.

 

Thats not... what this says?

 

afaict we have one day most of the time, even if the vig holsters.

 

5 town and 2 not town means possibly 2 town after a mislynch which equates to our loss.

Except those 2 not town are not on the same team. Its more 2|1|1, which means no one has parity, which means a lynch still happens.

[Lenlo]

If it ends as 1|1|1, then the townie becomes the Kingmaker. They lynch SK, wolves win, they lynch wolves SK wins, if the townie gets lynched, SK and wolves shoot each other (Assuming SK doesnt have a vest or some crap).

 

Sooooo... yeah. If Shad doesnt shoot tonight, or shoots and hits non-town, tomorrow isnt even close to LyLo.

[Shad_]

What is hard to understand about this?

 

We begin N2 7:1:1

 

SK and wolf both kill a separate villager, D3 starts 5:1:1

 

We lynch a villager, N3 begins 4:1:1

 

SK and wolf both kill a separate villager, D4 starts 2:1:1

 

2:1:1 means town has already lost.

 

A shot could get blocked. Wolf and SK could hit the same target. There are things that can happen to prevent this scenario, but they're out of the collective village's hands.

[Shad_]

I mean aside from lynching correctly tomorrow.

 

Point being this isn't the sort of game where we can go "oh hey we caught wolves D1 and D2 we can just lynch the three scummiest people and surely we'll hit pay dirt". We need to assume that we need to get it right tomorrow. Start with that mentality, chill a bit if the night brings happier results.

[Lenlo]

What is hard to understand about this?

 

We begin N2 7:1:1

 

SK and wolf both kill a separate villager, D3 starts 5:1:1

 

We lynch a villager, N3 begins 4:1:1

 

SK and wolf both kill a separate villager, D4 starts 2:1:1

 

2:1:1 means town has already lost.

 

A shot could get blocked. Wolf and SK could hit the same target. There are things that can happen to prevent this scenario, but they're out of the collective village's hands.

Town doesnt lost at 2:1:1 though? No one has parity. What if wolf and SK shoot each other? Your acting like 2:1:1 is parity when its not. Theres also the odds that SK and Wolf shoot one or the other during either of these nights. Your looking at, quite literally, the worst possible scenario. I appreciate the pessimism, I really do, but I dont think going into tomorrow with that attitude is good.

[Shad_]

I am very explicitly looking at the worst possible scenario. Avoidance of the worst possible scenario is dependent on PRs and non-town actions, thus my point: we are not guaranteed a mislynch.

[Shad_]

Lenlo who are your suspects?

[Shad_]

Sili you've set the standard to read you by.

 

And yeah, apparently it's a thing to wagon me for past games. Considering four people have voted me stats say at least one wolf did.

 

Kat, Wifi, Tiink, Zander

 

Kill one imo

Not a big thing but I think he might be less likely to say this if Kat is also his partner.