[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[alannalynn]

I would like everyone (including my villagers, because I want your input), regardless of their confidence in their reads, and regardless of their villager list, to do a thought experiment for me. This can be done at your leisure, when you're burned out from data mining D1.

 

If you needed to get yourself town-read yesterday, and were Zander and Csarmi's partner, what is your battle strategy?

 

Just be generic. Walk me through your process as scum. Put yourself in that person's shoes.

 

You're the Godfather or the Roleblocker, someone you really don't want to lose day one or pretty much ever. Especially now.

 

How would you have behaved yesterday?

 

Not how did you behave. Talking hypothetically.

1. Town read Zander. There's no reason to introduce doubt when 100% always works for us. I might introduce some doubt later on when Pizza is going after him hard, but I certainly don't voice doubts early on thread.

2. Push a weaker town read player, or a quiet townie that's not Csarmi. Support Zander's reads because he's townGOAT but also have my own reads that I'm exploring. After all, it's easy to follow Zander's WiM. That would mean pushing Wish or Celeste for tying themselves together because Celeste was pretty scummy. May also have pushed Nolder for not being more forthcoming with his reads and how he was getting there or pushing him more for the inactive things to get him frustrated instead of backing off. Nolder also a good push for me because I can cite games where I knew he was mafia early and I'm being #GOAT or something, which would be a good distraction from lynching my teammates, imo

3. Once case was introduced on Kaylee, if she's town I might have jumped on it as Csarmi was pushing it down. Not as distancing but because I wouldn't want to do the same thing as one of my partners. Would probably bus early, depending on mafia-chat strategy.

 

I think that covers everything. I certainly wouldn't try to tie myself to Csarmi, he wasn't in thread enough. But definitely tie myself to Zander and then just pass it off as #badreads.

[alannalynn]

Page 15

 

This will take a while.

glgl

 

I'm picking back up where I left off (y)

[Askthepizzaguy]

Excellent answer, Laine.

 

If you're deep wolfing you deserve the win imo. I doubt I ever push you.

[Zander?]

[Askthepizzaguy]

*lights a lighter even though he doesn't smoke*

[alannalynn]

 

Lenny isn't scum. Try again.

Laine, is this based as much on game as gut? Gut agrees with you but... yeah.

Both. Wish is solid for me. I wont actively participate in her lynch. Read my last post I responded to on the last page or so (?) where I explain more.

 

 

General thought: If there is a Godfather, it's probably not Wish.

 

Unless you think Zander hard busses his GF on day 1.

 

Also, love the hard work you put in last night but we have to reconsider EoD in light of confirmed competing scum trains.

 

blue was @ Laine btw

I'm thinking about that. I COULD say that it looks bad for Kaylee, but with Csarmi outting himself like that... it was either the worst move ever to protect a mafia mate or a poor move for mafia trying to protect a townie for cred. Only Pral was left on that vote.

 

Zander was pushing Wish all day, but that was gaining no traction. No way in hell Pizza was getting lynched, though he did have the claimed doctor and Nolder on him at EOD. Who could they have pushed on to? Or would they just bus to protect the other train?

 

Csarmi and Zander are both voting each other.

 

Going down the list, I wasn't getting lynched, Shad wasn't. The Kaylee case was shot down, Pizza lol no. Lenlo wasn't even on the radar, Wish train never gained traction. Pral was written off as a lynch candidate by strong voices (ie me, Pizza, a few others(?)), Celeste was a "tomorrow" and Nolder was looking townie, Cass never a lynch. Who would they move to?

 

hm.

They would bus Csarmi, imo. Be on the right side of history, or at least promise their vote to that train, and get the town cred. Remember Pizza said not to hammer, let us get the full time.

 

This is all just me spewing stuff and thinking. IDK.

 

We have a huge amount of time today.

 

We have a badass vig and Pizza is pretty much lock town.

 

We have four lynches.

 

Let's maximize the time, don't lynch until deadline, solve while Pizza is still alive to help us imo.

 

Without actually rereading yet, my current focus is on: Kaylee, Pral, Lenlo, Cass

 

And remember, we had competing scum trains on D1.  That makes a huge difference in how surviving scum treated the scenario.

Kaylee, Pral, Lenlo, Cass. Not Kaylee, Celeste, imo.

Order of lynches right now? Lenlo, Celeste, Pral, Cass.

 

I have to grudgingly admit that Nomi has been on the right track so far.

I am stubborn so I'm not clearing him but I'll put his lynch on low priority today.

As a matter of fact right now I'm not interested in lynching anyone.

I badly need more people in my village so that's my goal for today and if I manage to resolve the slots then I'll figure out how I feel about the rest of the players.

wtf

 

 

LOL! AWESOME

I believe in you Laine. 

 

Cass #2917 looks good re:Zander. I like.

 

[Pralaya]

Lenny ISO PT 6

 

(Im posting my thoughts in RED to wade through this mess...Im sorry dont blame me!!!!)

 

lololololololol

  

TL-DR

 

 

The whole i hate gut reads but thats all ill use for reasoning.

Numerous, Numerous contradictions

Numerous excuses

Very awkward back and forth with Penny that feels like pocketing

Double standards to "fit" her reads

Saying oh well I just changed my style from last game

Her "pick a name from a hat" stance on the Len/Shad back and forth

Bringing up the note taking thing distraction from the game

Flimsy reads without backing them up

TMI type/ Over confident type comments.

The feigned wtf repsones about me mixing up their names

 

 

Need I go on....I dont think so

 

[v] Lenny/Wish-Tree [/v]

On the other hand, look at Zander's case on Wish.

 

This, I think spews Wish town. THis was at a point where nobody was voting much and some push had to be made to drive a lynch. This was elaborate, focused and not just mere distancing. He also spends time trying to convince Shad to vote Wish.

[Pralaya]

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm not a wolf with Zander

Cass unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Shad unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Laine unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Wish unlikely to be wolf with Zander
Lean Kaylee unlikely to be a wolf.

 

That's six murders, and 4 lynches for POE, which is too many.

 

Too early for lolcats but essentially those in the POE are fighting for their right to not go first.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Too many murders, I mean.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Nolder and Pralaya probably not on the same team, so one should be a villager.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lenlo and Pralaya are my main 2.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lenlo / Celeste also possibru

[Askthepizzaguy]

Page 20.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: Lenlo
 

Lenlo, tell me why I am voting for you. Explain what you did this game which would lead people to believe that you are the mafia godfather or roleblocker.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Also, @all especially the folks in the POE, more responses to my earlier question that Alannalynn already answered.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Page 31

[Askthepizzaguy]

Page 40

[Kaylee]

#51 -- asks me to follow up on my early post by explaining my thoughts on Lenlo's and his own meta.

#53 -- Has no meta on Cass, asks her what her scum tells are.

#57 -- Asks Turin if he has any meta on Cass, says he's a meta-reliant player and needs info on her.

#58 -- Wants Turin to provide meta on himself, likes it when players describe themselves.

#164 -- Thinks Cass is suspect but has to weigh that against her being ENFP, doesn't like that she finds his meta talk awkward--"everyone who has played with me will tell you IM EXACTLY a Meta reliant player???!!!!"

#168 -- more talk on personality types, says Cass is ENFP

#174 -- won't read Pizza's (out-of-game) meta explanation until post-game because he's paranoid

#178 -- amused by my explanation of meta

#275 -- Thinks Cass is showing signs of ENFP paranoia and gut pings but isn't sure if she's faking it.#283 -- Doesn't like that Cass expects Zander to read her on his own when he's a meta-reliant player and has no previous experience with her, says this "really really pings" him.#285 -- Can't read Csarmi, always finds him scummy.#300 -- Uneasy about Kaylee because she was deep wolf in Frozen.#304 -- Doesn't know what to make of Wish because he has no meta on her, defers to Pizza.

#320 -- Thinks Cass's treatment of him is scummy, but acknowledges that it might be a consequence of her having never played with Zander before and being ENFP#340 -- says he has a good handle on Laine's meta

#373 -- reiterates that Kaylee was deep wolf in Frozen#378 -- has no meta on Cass and is a "meta/gut read player", needs to figure out whether her suspicion of Zander is a consequence of ENFP paranoia or if she's a wolf. ~~kind of hate that Cass's suspicions are being spun as "paranoia".#439 -- Isn't interested in looking at old games to better understand players.#446 -- Has no meta on Celeste, Wish, or Cass, so isn't willing to humor Celeste's meta explanations for reads.  ~~He was explicitly asking for this sort of stuff earlier.

 

I'll keep going, but what I see so far is pretty massive deferment to "I haven't played with/can't read any of these players, you're all going to have to help me by giving me meta" followed by "don't use meta as an excuse, because I haven't played with you before".   Zero interest in meta on the people he chooses to push, yet asks a lot of people for meta and uses it as an excuse to not have firm reads.

 

Town Zander just hunts wolves.  Lynch this scum.

 

I'd have to see what his later game said about Cass. At this point it's that she's scummy for weak reasons. He did that with Csarmi whom we know was his partner. Thinking he would've put the last partner in the null or town lean category though. Am I off here on him? Would he read two teammates as scum?

[Kaylee]

and irt to #2866 since he doesn't seem to be around to answer, town!Zander's called early joke/intro posts awkward without further explanation before.  He did it with Snow and I think Lenlo in NBC, and I'm sure he's done it elsewhere because pretty much everyone does this.  It's how half the games you'll ever play get started--a bit of chit-chat and then someone calls a post awkward or nervous or out of character and it's game on.  You ask why it's awkward--you don't immediately say the accusation is suspicious!  I really struggle to believe that Zander found Cass scummy for calling two of his posts awkward.  And his excuse for backing off was because players of her personality type can get paranoid?  Are you kidding me?  At best it's a massively omgus reaction.  It's probably a scummy push.

Based on her gameplay and the fact that she was early on Csarmi makes me agree that she's more likely town. I think the same for Wish actually.

[Kaylee]

Dropping what I had left in notepad for yucks:

 

#483 -- reiterates that he always reads Csarmi as scum

#501 -- reads list:

Pizza (strong town, top read): Feels like they're on the same wavelength and Pizza is playing similar to NBC.  ~~Should Pizza ever be the top read this early in the game from someone who has played with him multiple times before?  I don't know, he's a player I'm more paranoid of than most.  And is this game really reminiscent of NBC?  In NBC he kicked off pushing a bunch of scum cases.  In this game his focus had all been on finding towns.

Kaylee (town lean, 3rd highest read): likes her but reservations because he doesn't know her town meta, still feels good about reading her town

Laine (town lean, 4th highest read): "This is mostly a Gut/Meta read but" feels Laine is town because she feels relaxed/confident/not forced, likes that she's not readily trusting him.  ~~this is a bit trivial, but the slight downplay as mostly gut/meta is odd when he's saying that's how reads people best.  I don't think the downplay was intentional, but I think it might speak to his comments on Cass being fabricated.

Cass (town lean, 5th highest read)

 

Some of these reads changed though by end of day I think. Like his distraction going after Piazza.

[Kaylee]

 

 

3-4 mafia for 13 players? Agreed or Disagreed

 

General rule is 25% of the players are mafia I think. So probably 3.

!

Maybe a third party as well, we dunno.

Esp since there was a shot taking out another scummy. Well done btw

[Kaylee]

Who helped build the case on Zander while Salami was getting strung up?  Who downplayed it?

Great question

[Kaylee]

We have a huge amount of time today.

 

We have a badass vig and Pizza is pretty much lock town.

 

We have four lynches.

 

Let's maximize the time, don't lynch until deadline, solve while Pizza is still alive to help us imo.

 

Without actually rereading yet, my current focus is on: Kaylee, Pral, Lenlo, Cass

 

And remember, we had competing scum trains on D1.  That makes a huge difference in how surviving scum treated the scenario.

I'm mostly here with some reservations on Celeste. Thinking Cass is least likely though as I said a bit ago.

[Kaylee]

Final scum in

 

Nolder/Pral/Kaylee/Celeste imo

 

Not sure of the order.

 

Let's do eeeeet!

I can see the last being in here. Leno is another Unsure for me... Not in my core of town.

 

Speaking of I'm at town being

 

Piazza

Laine

Shad

Wish

Cass

 

That leaving Celeste, Leno, Pral and Nolder.

 

The last minute train on Piazza could've been a distraction... Esp in light of there being two scum trains. Not sold on that idea but it's possible.