[Advanced] Nightmare Before Christmas - Town Wins!

[Nolder]

Close enough. Sounds like I could be on the block and honestly I don't feel like I could defend myself.

I've played a pretty poor game. 

 

I think I can force them to kill me though and eliminate the problem.

 

I'm Tracker.

 

N1 Shad went nowhere

N2 AJ visited Notbob

N3 I'm tracking BFG

 

I'm guessing that means Notbob was protected.

My guess is he's the doc but if we want to tinfoil he could also be SK candidate.

 

Now I might just be delusionally tired here but I THINK scum are basically forced to kill me at this point.

[Lenlo]

Well might as well keep this up. I am a 1xVig. I submitted on BFG tonight and last night I received a cop view to use on whoever I choose. I selected Nolder. So, your move scum.

[Shad_]

Nolder that's fabulous.

It means we either have a doc who protected NotBob last night, NotBob has a bpv, or you're scum, and there is only one scum left, so this is a 100% verifiable claim.

 

I'll think about what to do with this later on.  My instinct atm is to say the doc should self-protect tonight to ensure we can verify tomorrow.

[Nolder]

What I like about this is even if scum kill me to frame BFG I'm out of the picture.

[Lenlo]

Well, BFG should be dieing tonight so I dont see that as a problem.

[Shad_]

Lenlo you SK?

[Shad_]

Gotta go, I'll try and piece together the possible scenarios later.

[Lenlo]

Nope.

[Shad_]

It's something I'll have to think about because it sounds like there were two vig shots in a 12 player game and that's ~weird to me even if scum and town both have some protective capability.

 

But I'm not drawing any conclusions until I've mapped out the mechanical possibilities later, so don't worry about me tinfoiling on you atm.

[Shad_]

Quick thought:

 

Cop might want to peek Lenlo tonight.  Nolder's claim is verifiable, so there is no need to peek him and the game is already over if he's scum, it's just a matter of letting the mechanics of the situation play out.

 

If Nolder's town, that will be verified tomorrow by the doc, so we could lynch BFG and Thane and not have to worry about him.

 

I feel like Lenlo has serial killer equity.

 

Again, I haven't fully thought this through yet, but I wanted to get that out in the meantime.

[Lenlo]

Why do I have SK equity? At first you were all for vig coming out and revealing and shooting BFG. Now your all like "this guy's an SK oh noes".

 

I dont mind being viewed, go at it, but I dont understand where the SK comment is coming from.

[dicetosser1]

Quick thought:

 

Cop might want to peek Lenlo tonight.  Nolder's claim is verifiable, so there is no need to peek him and the game is already over if he's scum, it's just a matter of letting the mechanics of the situation play out.

 

If Nolder's town, that will be verified tomorrow by the doc, so we could lynch BFG and Thane and not have to worry about him.

 

I feel like Lenlo has serial killer equity.

 

Again, I haven't fully thought this through yet, but I wanted to get that out in the meantime.

 

Wrong

 

cop need to view either shad or thane

 

lenlo now has no SK equity as he is now locked into an action if we get 2 kills and one isnt bfg he is in trouble.  

[Thane Vakarian]

Close enough. Sounds like I could be on the block and honestly I don't feel like I could defend myself.

I've played a pretty poor game. 

 

I think I can force them to kill me though and eliminate the problem.

 

I'm Tracker.

 

N1 Shad went nowhere

N2 AJ visited Notbob

N3 I'm tracking BFG

 

I'm guessing that means Notbob was protected.

My guess is he's the doc but if we want to tinfoil he could also be SK candidate.

 

Now I might just be delusionally tired here but I THINK scum are basically forced to kill me at this point.

 

Nolder that's fabulous.

 

It means  we  either have a doc who protected NotBob last night, NotBob ha s a bpv, or you're scum, and there is only one scum left, so this is a 100% verifiable claim.

 

I'll think about what to do with this later on.  My instinct atm is to say the doc should self-protect tonight to ensure we can verify tomorrow.

 

i can help with the bolded:

 

N1 protect Lenlo

N2 protect Notbob

N3 protect ???

 

Reason i came back is that i didn't want to leave town without a doc. I didn't get replaced, and it seems i was on target N2, yay me.

 

I've just outed myself, i know. But, it will clarify things for you all. Carry on 

[Thane Vakarian]

It does mean however that there's either a Vig or a SK around. SO.... that's the second guesswork after hunting the remaining wolf

[Thane Vakarian]

and now, i'll be off to bed, quite convinced that we see eachother in the morning

[Shad_]

 

Quick thought:

 

Cop might want to peek Lenlo tonight.  Nolder's claim is verifiable, so there is no need to peek him and the game is already over if he's scum, it's just a matter of letting the mechanics of the situation play out.

 

If Nolder's town, that will be verified tomorrow by the doc, so we could lynch BFG and Thane and not have to worry about him.

 

I feel like Lenlo has serial killer equity.

 

Again, I haven't fully thought this through yet, but I wanted to get that out in the meantime.

 

Wrong

 

cop need to view either shad or thane

 

lenlo now has no SK equity as he is now locked into an action if we get 2 kills and one isnt bfg he is in trouble.

 

If we don't have a second person claim 1x vig, then we would appear to have an unaccounted-for bullet.  What do you make of that.

 

On peeks though: A peek on me could be useful if you can all agree that there is no world in which I am ever on AJ's team in this game and thus no world in which I'm a Godfather.  I probably really do have some SK equity on account of D1 EoD.  I will accept a peek if town agrees to not pull some stupid tinfoil afterwards.

 

I need to further recalibrate with Thane's claim in mind.  I think the result is that Nolder and NotBob are lock clear from being mafia, but I still haven't had enough time without baby-distraction to piece it together.

[Shad_]

Why do I have SK equity? At first you were all for vig coming out and revealing and shooting BFG. Now your all like "this guy's an SK oh noes".

 

I dont mind being viewed, go at it, but I dont understand where the SK comment is coming from.

It comes from my concern over who shot Pizza, basically.  I'll explain when I can.

 

In the meantime, curious, why didn't you shoot AJ last night?

[Shad_]

Would the person who shot Pizza care to reveal?  Apparently someone also has the ability to give other people 1x cop views?  Not asking that person to reveal yet but start of day phase everyone should come out with it.

[Lenlo]

Cause I figured we would lynch him. Why use my shot on someone we are gonna lynch regardless?

 

And if he somehow weasled out, we'll I still had my shot.

[Shad_]

Assuming there is either 1 scum left or a serial killer (is that a safe assumption?  In a 12 player game?  I would think so but my experience is lacking) Thane is either scum or really protected NotBob.  Scum!Nolder would have absolutely no idea that this occurred if he is the one who shot Pizza, unless he is 1) a scum tracker who tracked me on N1 and Thane on N2, or 2) scum with a 1x vig who took a risky guess at my N1 actions when he could have safely lied and said he'd tracked Zander or Pizza instead.

 

I think both of those are unlikely scenarios and, by way of mechanics, Nolder is probably town.

[Shad_]

*either scum/SK I should say

[Shad_]

NotBob: if NotBob is scum, Nolder would have to be town, therefor AJ would have had to shoot his partner and bank on a doc save.  uhhhhhhhhh no.

[dicetosser1]

 

 

Quick thought:

 

Cop might want to peek Lenlo tonight.  Nolder's claim is verifiable, so there is no need to peek him and the game is already over if he's scum, it's just a matter of letting the mechanics of the situation play out.

 

If Nolder's town, that will be verified tomorrow by the doc, so we could lynch BFG and Thane and not have to worry about him.

 

I feel like Lenlo has serial killer equity.

 

Again, I haven't fully thought this through yet, but I wanted to get that out in the meantime.

 

Wrong

 

cop need to view either shad or thane

 

lenlo now has no SK equity as he is now locked into an action if we get 2 kills and one isnt bfg he is in trouble.

 

If we don't have a second person claim 1x vig, then we would appear to have an unaccounted-for bullet.  What do you make of that.

 

On peeks though: A peek on me could be useful if you can all agree that there is no world in which I am ever on AJ's team in this game and thus no world in which I'm a Godfather.  I probably really do have some SK equity on account of D1 EoD.  I will accept a peek if town agrees to not pull some stupid tinfoil afterwards.

 

I need to further recalibrate with Thane's claim in mind.  I think the result is that Nolder and NotBob are lock clear from being mafia, but I still haven't had enough time without baby-distraction to piece it together.

 

 

red There has been no second shot. Only one person has died each night. So tell me where the magic bullet u are talking about is.

 

blue  not agreed

[Shad_]

Could Nolder be a Serial Killer?  He couldn't be tracker then, so he would have to gamble on my N1 actions instead of safely claiming to have tracked Zander or Pizza.  And he would have had to take a slight gamble in assuming that there really was a doc and AJ wasn't lying.

 

So Nolder is very likely a legitimate town tracker.  His SK equity is incredibly low and his scum equity isn't much higher.

[Lenlo]

Why does there have to be an SK? There was no kill N1. What's the odds of the scum having a vig?