Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

[Shad_]

Kind of sketched out by Laine's posts on pg 54 but maybe I'm just being paranoid.

 

At this point there's 3 wolves in 10 players. Take yourself out and you get 9, 1/3 of those are wolves.

 

Clear some town reads and post your POE pool imo and I think we'll have a pretty clear direction to move in for toDay.

 

Was it the "if I were mafia" comment?  I got blasted so hard for those in my first game.  Learned kind of quick to not word things that way regardless of what I'm thinking.  <_<

[Shad_]

 

unlike the previous game, there's 0% chance i'll flip scum here.

 

as  for entrance, i like how you get into the game immediately BFG. No fluff there. So, i'm mixed. Either very town and on it, or wolf and doing everything to hide.

 

mind if i treat you as a suspect, BFG?

 

I'd rather you didn't, but this post helps me feel better about you (at least a little)

 

Overlooked this interaction along the way. Doesn't seem so bad now.

 

Also, my god, I finally found the button that turns off auto-formatting in the text field!

[Andrej]

Eh? Where is there any aggression. This is stretching so much I don't really know what to say, but it makes you look worse. You have been asked many times throughout day one for your thought processes and you didn't give any. Now it is night and this what you come up with this.

 

Have to agree with Talya here, Zander. The stuff you pulled as evidence in this post doesn't really do much to sway me tbh.

 

 

See, yates "cares" about everyone holding their vig shots until he doesn't

 

6/10 would switch to him still.

 

Maybe we'll just BOTH hero shot each other!

DO IT FOR NARNIA

 

Hally going all LOL here. What's the point of this?

 

You're cutting and splicing quotes of mine that had context before and after them, not including those.  Great way to take things out of context to make them seem scummy

Unvote

Vote: Yates

I'll be sticking here.

Don't like.

 

FROZEN?!?!?!

I spit out my drink.

 

Hally/Zander/Yates interaction interesting. I think Hallia's pushing back was a good town reaction and I don't see how anyone is still scum reading her.

@@Yates and AJ does this move Hally up the list for you, why/why not?

 

This one sort of bugs me because I don't understand the (seemingly) disconnect between the stuff she quotes from Hallia that she states she doesn't like but town reads her for how she's reacting to Yates?

 

 

Generally a pretty well thought out post imo. Though, I am a little weirded out because I don't think you've ever town read me as town

 

Should I be worried?

 

Actually, I usually have you as town on D1. It is D2 onwards when I start tinfoiling on you. Been a long time since I have played with you where you were scum. So, let's see :)

 

 

RIP

 

Also, placemark this post because I'm gonna grab up Pral's reads list. He has a knack for being pretty accurate on D1 as a villager (I've seen him get NK'd early on for having such good reads) so I would suggest people give them some weight if no one wants to come forward and claim the shot on him.

 

Im a happy camper at the mo cause im pretty sure I have my Town boys in the house. AJ and Yates if you dont know who im talking about.

 

Scum   I still dont like LAine. It was the tone of her response to me compared to how she had responded to others, then there was a bit where she was trying to lay the blame on me. Also not feeling Hally. Much more aggressive and im not liking what shes put out on thane

 

Looks like it's up to us to avenge Yates. What are some of your other reads besides me/Laine and I presume Thane (as town based on what I snipped from this post) ?

 

@ Dice: really wish you wouldn't, I don't know what to say to make you think I'm town at this point and I feel like you're going to tunnel me from here on out, so I'm sorry if it seemed I snapped back at you, I was annoyed at your entrance: it was really out of place at that point in the game. The tone was different because their votes were at a certain stage and yours was at an entirely different one. I'm just letting you know how I saw it, but you're calling it placing blame on you; I don't get where you're getting at with that?

 

Don't really like the bolded section here. Reads to me like Laine is no longer considering Dice a suspect? I don't remember this read coming about and would like to hear her explain it.

 

^ shot, not NKed

 

Sort of a weird correction here imo, not sure why you felt the need to fix it.

 

If I had to guess I'd say there are two hero shots in there and scum still have 3 nks.

 

Could be. There's only one person I could really see shooting Pral as a villager and he's already denied it. Also I remember Yates hinting at Hallia needing two bullets to kill him so perhaps the wolves took that as a Doc hint. No way to tell for now - but here's to hoping they wasted two on him.

 

so, Yates will do no explaining, Zander.... 

 

All the Town Vig shots are 1X only, if i remember *checks setup*... yes.. ok.

 

So, after having shot, the town vigs basically are VT... 

 

i'd suggest that the 2 'hero shots', if there were two, or 3... no idea, would not reveal that they have shot. That way, the wolves do not know who still has a Vig shot left (if so). Having said that, i AM curious as too who has shot, but that can wait. 

 

*inhales; exhales*

 

The long re-read would begin to tie some knots. I honestly feel sorry for Pral, not even having played properly in the game.

 

I don't think calling shots after the fact is such a bad idea, tbh. Sure - it outs those players as essentially VTs but more importantly it tightens the POE pool and now wolves have to decide whether to PR hunt or waste a shot on a ~cleared townie who is now vanilla.

 

Yates said he would kill Hallia but planned to holster.  I'm guessing he did kill Hallia.  Yates makes sense as a scum NK--he only ever made one post that had me suspicious of him and that came at the very end of the night phase.  Pralaya is odd.  Claiming the shot in this situation doesn't seem like a bad thing to me because if scum have 3 shots left and we mislynch or someone heroes bad tonight they could theoretically win N2.

 

I agree with the bolded stuff. Yates was getting town read by most and there was the fact he made that Doc hint - so he was a Prime Time NK target.

 

Underlined: Doesn't seem we'll be getting that claim at this point, unfortunately.

 

Sorry guys, forgot how much activity this requires, I'll try to step it up, when's deadline?

 

 

Just... really?

 

Pre-rereading everything my gut right now feels the most comfortable with you, AJ, and Talya.  (Funny, that.)  I've got a lot of homework to do....

 

My top 3 are pretty much the same at this point. Feel really solid with you, Zander and Talya as town.

 

Next up probably Dice/Thane

 

BFG/Verb

 

Laine/Rand

 

@Dice, Any new reads? Other than AJ/Laine?

 

Why are you asking Dice specifically here?

 

I'd bet 2 wolves in the oranges based on wagonomics.  Wolves tend to bury votes on each other D1, or at least bury their vote on a meaningless or impossible lynch.  If I had to choose who to lynch D2 based ONLY on this quote, I'd lynch Rand.  He had a meaningless vote on D1, and in what I've read of him in my catchup, I see multiple FoSes and "intent to vote"-type posts, but I see his vote remained on me.....which was useless.  Add to that his lynch did not go through.  Wolves tend to easily nudge D1 mislynches through, but to have this stall (I don't know yet if there were other reasons for this, btw) makes me think the village might have had a wolf in their sights.

 

More to come on this theory.

 

If you had to pick two - who?

 

Also - Rand did at least attempt to change his vote to Laine after some casing of her, but the way you describe it still fits. Laine wasn't at all on the table for a D1 lynch imo so it was still basically wasted.

 

I also agree on the note that his lynch not going through is troubling. We had 3 players not voting at all EOD and a bunch of others spread out. Wagonomics for me says that if Rand flips wolf I'm finding his partners in the off wagons/not voting section.

 

I'm feeling good about AJ and Talya right now.  Thinking that Rand train was pure.  If Rand's town it would have only taken 1 of 3 scum voting him to put him at L-1, and Zander was the only one with a town lean on him iirc, so it's not like scum would have had to contradict themselves to vote him.

 

Very good point. Underlined is a good thing to check back on once we have Rand confirmed - who was scum/null reading him but not voting?

 

As far as Pral as a scum kill, only thing coming to mind is he was determined to remove Thane from the poe.  His death creates wifom on that.  But that's a pretty weak reason for scum to kill him considering their other options.

 

Thane said something earlier that he would be most suspicious of those pushing him or strongly town reading him D1. So Thane as a villager with a gun shooting Pral makes sense, although he's not claiming it. So if it wasn't him then probably a wolf NK.

[Andrej]

im thinking on keeping Rand on my town lean after his post.  really felt honest to me and he makes good points.  not clearing him yet or anything but looking good thus far imo.

 

What points did you like?

 

That null on Yates came on page 9 iirc.  So yeah, Zander, I think you're going overboard.  You might have something real on Talya that I'm not seeing, but you're reaching too far and it makes it look like you're grasping at air.  The above quote actually makes Talya look pretty good.

 

This isn't like SW where everyone was straight up ignoring you.  I've read through Talya's posts a couple times now and I'm honestly not seeing it.  So you're going to have to show me, and what I just quoted is sort of showing the opposite.

 

I agree with Shad here. Talya adding the context to her read does make her progression look pretty smooth and she does have a point that her early read was based on actual content versus tone, which is what you're backing yours with.

 

Shad you have more insight than me most of the time haha I don't remember anyone being suspicious of him, so unsure about a hero shot in that respect, but I'd have to go back to make sure. Simplest solution is that mafia killed him too, but I don't know why. It's wifom to look at who he was targeting because mafia would kill anyone; If I were mafia I'd kill Zander or Andrej, not Pral just because they have more sway with the town.

 

Disagree with the bolded.

 

Strongly dislike the underlined.

 

Maybe the intention was to throw us off, or they thought he'd be a difficult lynch? Another possibility is that the obvious targets are not a threat right now. I'm very sure about Andrej being town, still really good on Zander though his Talya tunnel is extreme, and I know I'm town. I need a little bit more from Verbal to be sure there as well.

 

NK spec is always a little scummy to me on the merit that scum can talk about it in a misleading way. The part you say about the obvious targets not being a threat doesn't really align with what you said previously about Pral's reads not being worth looking into. If you/me/Zander weren't killed because we're not threats (and I assume this means on the right track) then wouldn't it make more sense to look at Pral's reads? Or at least consider them?

 

Verbal looking to run for town council up in here.  Not mayor, though - I'm voting Shad for mayor.  I'll cry real tears if my village reads are off this game.  Real tears.

 

If you're actually a villager this should get pretty easy. I hope so, fwiw :)

 

Maybe I'l try it this way. In the other games like SW and ME everyone at some point starting reading Talya as Maf or into a PoE this game no one but me is.  Those other games she a little more all over the place this game very concise like she KNOWS who is who,  Like she has to putting EVEN more effort and thought into what she says and does to leave little to no space for error.   Town!Talya is a little more... carefree maybe the word im looking for.   I hope my explanation makes sense.  My gut is telling me somethings up here and so Im following it.

 

Fwiw this is the best explanation you have provided all game.

 

BFG, why did you find it important to provide this much information on Talya in response to Zander's initial "something about her pings me" comment?

 

This could be as simple as BFG noticing a discrepancy in Zander's reads that he didn't show progression on and she is spot checking him. The w/w theory seems a little premature but something to be kept in mind I guess if one does turn up red.

 

Still need to reread, but I need someone to give me Shad_'s personality, not as a mafia player but just in general if that makes sense?  As a mafia player too I guess, that's important

 

What's the point of this question if you aren't going to apply some sort of context or explanation as to why you're asking it? If you were trying to make a point I would've preferred you stated what you're seeing and then allow us to evaluate that and compare it to what we know about him. Otherwise it looks to me you're just reiterating the fact you need to reread and asking questions that don't measure up to anything.

 

Verdict: BFG's progressions are smooth as ice and she's really doing her homework.  Little things like town reading Talya without asking her questions first when she pressed others to get early reads.  A big thing in not voting Rand.  But all-in-all, if BFG is wolf she's pretty impressive.  I've never seen a wolf maintain this level of consistency, conform so many reads to responses, and put in this much work.  Is scum!BFG this good?  Someone in this game ought to know.  I have a feeling my strong town read out the gate is going to hold up.  The things that bug me do not trump the many, many things that do not here.  If I went into this much detail on anyone I would find a couple issues.

 

So yeah, tell me scum BFG is really great at pretending to hunt wolves and evolve fake reads organically, preferably with a game example, or I'll be happy to put the breaks on her slide down from my town pile.

 

I like the depth you went in for this analysis. My honest take on it? Don't underestimate her - she's a smart cookie. Sadly that's about as good of advice as I can give, we haven't played together in quite a while and she's fooled me before in the past.

[Andrej]

 

Kind of sketched out by Laine's posts on pg 54 but maybe I'm just being paranoid.

 

At this point there's 3 wolves in 10 players. Take yourself out and you get 9, 1/3 of those are wolves.

 

Clear some town reads and post your POE pool imo and I think we'll have a pretty clear direction to move in for toDay.

 

Was it the "if I were mafia" comment?  I got blasted so hard for those in my first game.  Learned kind of quick to not word things that way regardless of what I'm thinking.  <_<

 

Not just that. I get weird vibes reading what she has to say regarding Pral's death - NK spec is always WIFOM inducing but it's still worth considering in the very least. I didn't like how she wants to dismiss Pral's reads but also thinks it's worth noting that others weren't killed because they aren't threats. I'm assuming by that she meant threats in the sense of being correct in their reads - which also happens to be a plausible defense for wolves when they survive a good majority of the game.

[Andrej]

I had quoted Rand's WOT posts as well to put into my catch-ups, but decided to delete them just because I disliked them so much.

 

For one - stop telling us you're going to reread but then continue to ask pointless questions that you could easily find the answer to if you simply read the game. Makes it look to me that you're spinning your wheels and posting stuff just to say you posted with the excuse that you're behind.

 

I'm also not a fan of how he addressed Verb's accusation. He doesn't even talk on the point that Verb makes for him being a wolf outside of saying that he attempted to vote elsewhere.

 

Idk, if Rand's a villager then I'll be pretty upset tbh because his effort this game is crap. I'm also having a very hard time believing that he was simply oblivious to the fact that the game had passed two phases and that he was nearly lynched D1 without so much as a peep from him.

[Shad_]

 

@ Dice: really wish you wouldn't, I don't know what to say to make you think I'm town at this point and I feel like you're going to tunnel me from here on out, so I'm sorry if it seemed I snapped back at you, I was annoyed at your entrance: it was really out of place at that point in the game. The tone was different because their votes were at a certain stage and yours was at an entirely different one. I'm just letting you know how I saw it, but you're calling it placing blame on you; I don't get where you're getting at with that?

 

Don't really like the bolded section here. Reads to me like Laine is no longer considering Dice a suspect? I don't remember this read coming about and would like to hear her explain it.

 

This is a pretty keen observation. I'm not terribly concerned about proving I'm town to someone who I think already knows my alignment.

[Andrej]

This is the post some people are using to make Thane look scummy? This is town Thane if anything.

 

As far as I remember, Thane is less defensive when scummy and when he is scum, he tries to forcefully pick small things when he voting others. He often looks forced and deliberately picky when he is scum. A defensive Thane is town and that is what I am seeing here.

 

On the top, I would believe Hallia would know Thane very well and her voting Thane this game looks to be exploiting a weak link. Not getting good vibes from her.

Same with Alanna. Here flip-flopping on Thane looks forced and trying hard to town-tell. 

 

AJ is town telling like crazy here. As I read through the game, I had similar thoughts as AJ.

 

Looks like Yates is town too. His gambit and analysing the responses is typical town Yates. I don't necessarily accept his reasoning though.

 

Have no idea how Shad, Zander and Talya play. Need to watch out more. 

 

Liking BFG  too. Here responses are straightforward but this post was kinda off. Looks like a subtle effort in trying to put the focus on Thane.

 

Verbal, Rand and Dice are null. Although  Dice and Rand posted, I don't see anything from their posts (Actually, to be honest, I skipped Rand's long WoT .. too much to read when you are reading 28 pages at a stretch !)

 

Gut feel, one or both of Hallia and Alanna are scum.

 

The main problem I have with Alanna is the way she is constantly FoSing Thane, yet proclaiming him null and unable to read him completely. On the other hand, she does not show this hesitance for other people. I found that flip-flopping a bit inorganic.

 

For example, This is where she starts saying Thane pings a little and feels sad to vote him after SW game. The one more post FoSing Thane and not liking his post. More "light FOS" here

 

Then, the next day, she has him on null and wants to "read him better". I found this a bit weird especially after her posts FoSing him a couple of times. Agreed she said that she found some of Thane's posts good .. but I don't know what she is referring to.

 

And then, suddenly he is scummish because of his responses to Hallia. This is the bit that is jarring to me.

 

 

Shad you have more insight than me most of the time haha I don't remember anyone being suspicious of him, so unsure about a hero shot in that respect, but I'd have to go back to make sure. Simplest solution is that mafia killed him too, but I don't know why. It's wifom to look at who he was targeting because mafia would kill anyone; If I were mafia I'd kill Zander or Andrej, not Pral just because they have more sway with the town.

 

[Shad_]

Haha, going to bed, should be giving Laine a thorough reread tomorrow.

[Andrej]

Goodnight Herr Mozart.

 

Probably gonna crash too, but I think Rand/Laine need some shaking out come first light.

 

Would love to hear more thoughts on it and a response from both.

[BFG]

@Shad, regarding Talya/Zander. I initially thought that Zander had gone from town reading Talya to her pinging, I remembered his initial post as saying she was 'into it' or words to that affect which I generally associate with town reads and didn't remember anything in the interim that would account for that.

 

Between the first post and second I found his initial post and realised that Talya was null to him initially, then looked through thread to see if there was something there to justify it. At that stage in the game there still wasn't a lot going on so I was 'picking' at minor things still.

 

Re Talya, I'd been fairly neutral on her all day, but the stuff she posted in the run up to day, I just don't see coming from mafia. That may be silly of me to say as I have no knowledge of what mafia!Talya is like, she could be another Cass, but that's what I feel. If you go through those posts, she addresses pretty much everyone, she appears to be looking to solve the game, her reads are non consensus but for the right reasons, her ISO on Thane followed on from what she was thinking and didn't look like busy work. I just can't see Talya as mafia this game.

 

Re Thane, he's probably the player that's hardest for me to get a read on. I had him as light town in SW up untilhis reentrance Day 2, so can't clear him on tone or 'ease' on thread (which is grating because I should have known that anyway from a previous game where he fooled Tommy by tone) although I 'want' to. This game he's made some posts that have me thinking town, his read on me is close towhat I think town Thane thinks, in as much as Thane is one of many players who doesn't seem to ever clear me, but he does view how I interact on thread as alignment indicative. The caveat here is that I don't know how mafia Thane reads me so can't use this to clear him either. When you and Hallia stated the repetitive read thing, I started wondering if that held so dropped him to null to check it out. AJ posted his stuff on Thane which made me feel better again. I checked out AG, SW, Pokemon and ME yesterday. In AG and Pokemon his early posts were entire game solve, read lists posts. He didn't post anything like that in SW, so I started wondering if game solve posts were his thing, but he didn't seem to post any in ME either. I have never seen Thane get irritated in that manner yesterday and dont know how to process that. One frustrating thing about him is that he doesn't fight his lynch when town, he views mislynches as necessary for information. I don't know if change is Thane finally breaking that orjust annoyance at branding mafia again. In short, I just don't know.

 

Re me, thanks for the paying attention thing, I was starting to think I was going bonkers. Also the swayability of my opinions depends on how strong that opinion is, with Thane my opinion is pretty much what the last person said and to an extent Rand as well, which is why he probably ended up subconsciously at the bottom of the list.

 

My most recent mafia games are in the BT, pokemon is probably as 'good' as I can get and was boosted by subbing in with opinions I'd formed as uninformed. Also cliche mafia, but I had to sub out due to RL, so not a great example. Last town game was April Fools. Darthe and Cindy both seem to have a decent grasp of my mafia 'meta' after Pokemon

 

Re not voting - stupidity mostly. I had an alarm set for 4.15 slept through it and woke a minute before deadline. I should have voted anyway, I wasn't sure on Rand, and was on Hallia :(

 

@AJ, Re Dice, because other than Hallia as mafia he had no new opinions from the last time he posted before EOD, I'd hoped for more.

[BFG]

Re Verbs entrance. Sort of null on it so far, I like parts in theory, two things that seem out of place, I'm curious as to why Thanes such a strong town read, but that may just be because I find him so hard to read.

 

The biggest thing for me is his vote train analysis, I get and agree that most mafia are likely off wagon, bolstered by reads of the people on wagon, but there's no way the non voters should be out of Verbs orange list. It weirds me out as a method for keeping himself out of contention.

[Andrej]

I really hope you're town BFG.

[Andrej]

Not sure I can scum read you after reading those - I should've said.

 

My heart will be broken if you're tricking me again this game lol

[BFG]

Re Laine, I'm starting to not like how she's keeping me in null. I have a lot of content this game, I feel like there should be some sort of lean by now. And if she isn't sure, why is my opinion of Dice swaying her over people who she was town reading?

 

Against that in ISO there's not much that stands out, her opinion on Shad seems a little strange

 

She sees why people think he's different because of fluff, but he's acting the same? As a pretty literal type player that doesn't make sense to me, but I need to read it in context before I'm happy with it.

[BFG]

Not sure I can scum read you after reading those - I should've said.

 

My heart will be broken if you're tricking me again this game lol

Your heart is safe <3 and likewise

 

Seriously though that was 1 game :/

[BFG]

AJ, incidentally agree with yyour post on Laine, that was pinging me to.

[Andrej]

Two.

 

Two games

 

Darthe's original Jungle Republic (your first game) and Time's Once Upon a Time game in the BT.

[BFG]

 

And "huge defense" was not a good way to word it on my part.  I said what I was thinking instead of what I was seeing.  But suffice to say she reacted very.... unexpectedly? to Zander's "Talya pings me" line.

 

 

Thats why my other Wolf Lean is BFG.

Then WHY didn't you say this? You've spoken a lit about tone, gut and disliking ny early read on Shad but bot bothered with anything specific like this.

 

Answered to Shad above, if there's anything else like this it will be best we deal with it now.

 

And additionally, how much of your Talya read is associated with me?

[BFG]

Two.

 

Two games

 

Darthe's original Jungle Republic (your first game) and Time's Once Upon a Time game in the BT.

Eh? You were the only one to read me correctly in JR

[BFG]

Serious though, why does the BT hate me so much? :(

[BFG]

I think ISOing Rand was next on my list,

[BFG]

 

Two.

 

Two games

 

Darthe's original Jungle Republic (your first game) and Time's Once Upon a Time game in the BT.

Eh? You were the only one to read me correctly in JR

EBWOP

[Andrej]

 

Yates

[Thane Vakarian]

i'm in here and catching up on the nights events (well, night for me)

 

*passes coffee around*

 

morning all