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Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night


Darthe

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Posted

 

 

 

Ok, so before I get started this is what I'm remembering...

 

I had a strong town meta read on Dice from Days 1 and 2 and good points after. Slight concerns in that I think his reads on Day 1/2 were pretty narrow I remember reads on Laine/AJ/Yates and not many others. There were some interactions between him and Paine that didn't feel m/m, I can't remember how he and Talya treated each other.

 

Thane had a reasonable Day 1, but I don't remember much from him Days 2-4, which is worrying. Day 5 was pretty strong. Laine was keeping him consistently at null, Talya I think the same during the early game, dropping to a mafia read at the end. I struggle to read Thane, which makes this difficult :dry: Complicated by being replaced at mylo. No real read on Sili yet, maybe slight town??? Need to see more!

 

Zander was pushing me and Talya Day 1, then others dropped to replace me in his bottom 2. I think he stopped really pushing Talya (while keeping her as his #1 read around the time Laine died, which is concerning if I have that timing right. Complicated by the accident which is keeping him quiet. Also posted A lot for someone in their first game as mafia, up until Day 3/4(?)

I dont see wolf thane giving up a mislynch to bus a teammate knowing he had to leave shortly after.

 

From what i saw zander doesnt have a lot of content... But what is this accident?

 

I'm not sure on details, Znder has been mostly absent from DM for a while now, Dice might know more precisely when this occurred.

 

For where you seem to be, nobody has much content yet, Zander's not unusual in that.

 

Would Zander bus a teammate when he's been mostly absent and Talya is at the top end of most peoples POE?

 

 

to add to this i pushed on her even when town was mislynched.  heck i was on her even when rand was l1 or l2 early.  i didnt switch to him from Talya when there was an opportunity to do so.  im not a wolf here ever.

 

 

Rand was at L2, EOD1. You'd have needed someone else to switch. Given Laine missed EOD1, Talya was already voting him, you'd have needed someone else to switch for your vote to mean anything. Given the flipped mafia EOD1 doesn't mean as much for you or Thane as it did when I thought Talya was town.

 

Can I spell it out again?

 

Case A.

 

Dice is a wolf. Talya didn't hammer Zander, therefore Dice does not have a shot left.

 

Case B.

 

I am a wolf. Talya didn't hammer Zander, therefore I do not have a shot left.

 

Case C.

 

Zander is a wolf. Talya didn't hammer Zander, because Zander still had a bullet in the chamber.

 

We lose tomorrow only if we lynch me or Dice and Case C is the case.  ONLY IN CASE C.

 

@Bfg, @Dice,

 

IF YOU WANT TO WIN LYNCH ZANDER.

Case A is extremely unlikely. I'd announced I was likely to hammer about 15 minutes before Dice unvoted. There is zero reason for Dice to unvote in that situation if mafia, because mafia still need mislynches.

 

Case B. I really don't follow (still, sorry) how you determine that if you were mafia in this situation you wouldn't have a shot left.  

 

Case C. Yeah, I need to review how long Zander was at L1 and Talya could have hammered.

 

 

So essentially what Zander needs to answer is why he tried to vote Rand to L1, while saying he was willing to vote Laine Day 2...

 

i was waiting on Laine;s answer to her soft claim.  you even quoted you liked my response if im not mistaken.

 

I did, but right now I find everyone pretty townie, but one of you is mafia. I get why you didn't vote Laine, but WHY did you put Rand to L1 (or try to; Shad unvoted between your failed vote and your unfailed vote)

 

 

 

 

it started with a gut read.  she's playing too clean man.  NO ONE thoughts shes scum yet in every game ive played with her as Town!Talya people have suss'ed her early and often. 

 

this is VERY alarming.  others are now starting to put the peices together as well.  im not the best at building cases Dice as you know from Star Wars.  I believe Im right here

 

and with the PoE this small it only makes me even more certain!!!!

 

i didnt like her comment about a Rand town flip makes Verb look good then voting Verb either.

 

i think its very likely AJ/Talya as the last 2 wolves imo.

Then why were you voting Verb with her?

 

 

because i didnt like her comment/reasoning behind it.  i voted Verb for the same reasons as you and the rest did.

 

So your reads are independent of each other?

 

 

This is pure 'math' here. Zander will try to sway you with AtE and slander. He will say I am jumping the gun in some posts, while missing the point: he is outed to me. The ONLY reason he hasn't done the same to me yet is because HE IS A WOLF WHO HASN'T YET DEALT WITH A MYLO SITUATION. He didn't clue in that it was a poe for him at the start of day 7. That is all the proof you need to hammer the nail into his coffin.

 

Not to say there isn't more evidence, but that's enough.

 

1. Zander is the optimal lynch. We get to clear him if he is town, or win outright if he is a wolf.

 

2. Thane can't be a wolf with Talya. He started a CFD on her when Zander was at L-1 for god's sake, all the while knowing he HAD TO GO ON VACATION AND WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE TOWN CRED.

 

What do you mean by the bold? I don't disagree with the rest

 

 

 

 

Good morning Talya, BFG

 

Talya, I pointed out a few of Thanes posts, but haven't commented on liking any of them, other than conversation. I'm okay leaving him in null still until I can read him better.

  

@BFG: Zander and Shad are acting the same as usual, so I'm pretty comfortable reading them both as town. I really don't see either as being mafia here; I feel like there would be a change in their play that I haven't seen as of yet.

 

Yates and AJ are just gut, I suppose, not really sure on them but I'm leaning that way from their interactions I've seen in the thread.

  

 

 

 

i get the feeling that we're still missing a few players..... hopefully they will get in before DL

 

i contemplate voting Yates... he rands wolf way too often, so it'd be an excellent D1 guess imo :tongue:

 

According to the CCSOWH if Yates looks towny D1 ignore him if not,,,,,,,,lolololol

 Yates actually looking more towny thus far then in SW imo.

 

Agreed. Need more time to figure him out though. Remember, if he claims mason, we lynch him immediately.

 

I don't like Thane's comment

 

 

This is the first post you say you don't like his comments

 

 

Unfortunately I can, Zander. Thoughts on other players?

 

Theres not much to go on but Im feeling good On Yates.  Finding him way more into the game and he's just Yatesing.(tm pending)

 

Like AJ tone much better

 

Alanna is always mayor in my town!

 

Only one kinda pinging me in the least is Talya can't quite put my finger on it.

 

Try! Odd comment from no where

  

for the moment, Zander is the only one i trust here. I can always Vig him if he betrays me in another game.

 

As for Verb and Pral, they'd be 0 info lynches. Would be nice to wreck some wolves without too much town casualties this game, and we'd need to gather info to do so, right?

 

I'll be coming and going this weekend, depending on how the kids want to spend their time *nods*

  

Well who would have figured on July 4th nowhere would be open? I really really wanted Asian food of some sort but all closed. At least I have booze. I'll just make a pizza :dry:

 

Thane always pings a little. I would feel bad lynching him though after Star Wars

  

So he pings a little but would feel bad after SW game Why. He was wolf there, why would you feel bad here

 

 

Shad - can you explain the town read on BFG?

On a phone so I can't easily quote right now, but it's all on page 4. Basically similar to Yates' approach to Talya and Zander--I created an opportunity for what I felt would be a towny observation and she took the bait. She pointed out something that I noticed but that I don't think the average scum player would.

 

Which was what - that I hadn't been asking questions as you suggested?

 

I can see what Shad is saying here makes sense.

I'm using my iPad (did I say I got one....*giggles*) so doing this in parts not as easy as I thought

 

On phone.

 

My notes are talya is likely distancing after talking strategy with zander. You can see how zander nudges her a few pages before this and now she does the same to him and laine.

 

Laine is pairing wolves and towns to avoid spew. I know i have more info than u bfg but its true. U snd talya then zander and shad

 

 

what info is that Sili??  the maf qt?

 

This feels like sniping.

 

Zander at this point there is one mafia left between you, Thane/Sili and Dice, who is it? And why?

 

 

If I gather any more evidence it will all be about how me and Dice are town and Zander is a wolf. There isn't any more detective work for me to do because I know it can't be Dice or BFG. :huh:

But you still have convincing to do :/

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Posted

Sili

 

Backtracks awkwardly from nudging. Bfg come on see what I'm seeing. Zander is new he wants to create distance but he doesn't want to lynch talya. He realises a lot of eyes are on scum... ppl are talking about them so he tries to divert focus to low posters instead of talya

As an aside this makes no sense for game state at the time. There was no focus on Talia at the time, the ONLY reason people were looking twice is because Sander was reading her as mafia, if he wanted to avoid suspicion on her he just had to say nothing, or town read her with the rest. You're right it could be new mafia though.

 

 

Zander

 

This proved right in SW with Sooh and in ME with Dice and Sept. Why wouldn't I subscribe to it here. No backtracking here brother. I made a point for where I thought the other wolves could be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

this proved right in SW with Sooh and in ME with Dice and seph. why wouldnt i subscribe to it here. no backtracking here brother. i made a point for where i thought the other wolves could be.

Slipped bro.

 

Sorry.

 

quote in context silli....you said i was backtracking off Talya by looking at the low posters. the other wolves was beside talya. nice try at mis repping me homie.

 

-'other' means you knew talya was a wolf. You said, 'where i thought the other wolves could be', but in the post I quoted you were saying Talya was null.

 

And I refuse to quote that glitched quote block. I know the post chain you're referring to. -__-

 

again with the mis sep sili. other refers to BESIDES Talya. we now know here flip, knew was in current reference knowledge and its pretty obv.. dude your better then this,

 

 

My advice is re. the sentence again, but I think you get it. You spoke in the past tense like you knew Talya was a wolf. re. 'Thought the other wolves'.

 

fyl RTE tried to do this in ME as a wolf and he was lynched for it. mis repping is not a good look sili. but please continue to do so.

 

 

 

 

I haven't misrepped you though. I quoted what you said, and then explained it was a slip. You have yet to demonstrate it wasn't, and I don't think you can.

 

 

I haven't misrepped you though. I quoted what you said, and then explained it was a slip. You have yet to demonstrate it wasn't, and I don't think you can.

you have though. and ive already pointed it out. the others will see it as well. but nice try though.

 

 

 

 

I haven't misrepped you though. I quoted what you said, and then explained it was a slip. You have yet to demonstrate it wasn't, and I don't think you can.

you have though. and ive already pointed it out. the others will see it as well. but nice try though.

 

I... don't think so.

 

The quoted post from day 2 was of you saying Talya was null. In your response just now, you said you thought Talya was a wolf.

 

Zander's post for reference

Tbh she's still null I just find the tone "Now Dog" "We can still be lazy and win" but mostly my gut. My gut served me pretty well thus far and I'm learning to trust it. Its D1 with not a whole lot going on. Chances are there's a wolf (s) in the little to non posters according to the CCSOHW and one (some) posting. Just making [my POE]

Zander is calling Talya null and mafia in the same post.

 

 

 

 

I think this is mostly semantics and not alignment indicative for either side. Maybe Sili is reading through Zander with conf bias

Posted

That was totally a slip.

 

And that post is noob scum.

 

And I don't understand how I misrepped Zander. Guy said Talya was null in the post (despite not liking Talya's tone - sure), and said he was looking for other scum. Zander was not thinking about what he was saying in the post, he was thinking about how he could twist it to make himself look good. And then instead of acknowledging the typo he says I misrepped him.

 

Just lol. lololol. You know? How are you missing this. XD

Posted

Ebwop:

 

Zander originally said Talya was null (despite not liking Talya's tone - sure), but now says he was looking for other scum. Evidently Zander was thinking about how he could twist it to make himself look good, and then instead of acknowledging the typo he says I misrepped him.

Posted

As an aside this makes no sense for game state at the time. There was no focus on Talia at the time, the ONLY reason people were looking twice is because Sander was reading her as mafia, if he wanted to avoid suspicion on her he just had to say nothing, or town read her with the rest. You're right it could be new mafia though.

My impression of the thread is Zander, Laine, and Talya were all being talked about to differing degrees and little attention went elsewhere.

 

 

Also, my understanding of Town Zander is he goes on hunches. He is an impulsive intuitive guy, right?

Posted

 

 

 

 

Ok, so before I get started this is what I'm remembering...

 

I had a strong town meta read on Dice from Days 1 and 2 and good points after. Slight concerns in that I think his reads on Day 1/2 were pretty narrow I remember reads on Laine/AJ/Yates and not many others. There were some interactions between him and Paine that didn't feel m/m, I can't remember how he and Talya treated each other.

 

Thane had a reasonable Day 1, but I don't remember much from him Days 2-4, which is worrying. Day 5 was pretty strong. Laine was keeping him consistently at null, Talya I think the same during the early game, dropping to a mafia read at the end. I struggle to read Thane, which makes this difficult :dry: Complicated by being replaced at mylo. No real read on Sili yet, maybe slight town??? Need to see more!

 

Zander was pushing me and Talya Day 1, then others dropped to replace me in his bottom 2. I think he stopped really pushing Talya (while keeping her as his #1 read around the time Laine died, which is concerning if I have that timing right. Complicated by the accident which is keeping him quiet. Also posted A lot for someone in their first game as mafia, up until Day 3/4(?)

I dont see wolf thane giving up a mislynch to bus a teammate knowing he had to leave shortly after.

 

From what i saw zander doesnt have a lot of content... But what is this accident?

 

I'm not sure on details, Znder has been mostly absent from DM for a while now, Dice might know more precisely when this occurred.

 

For where you seem to be, nobody has much content yet, Zander's not unusual in that.

 

Would Zander bus a teammate when he's been mostly absent and Talya is at the top end of most peoples POE?

 

 

to add to this i pushed on her even when town was mislynched.  heck i was on her even when rand was l1 or l2 early.  i didnt switch to him from Talya when there was an opportunity to do so.  im not a wolf here ever.

 

 

Rand was at L2, EOD1. You'd have needed someone else to switch. Given Laine missed EOD1, Talya was already voting him, you'd have needed someone else to switch for your vote to mean anything. Given the flipped mafia EOD1 doesn't mean as much for you or Thane as it did when I thought Talya was town.

 

Can I spell it out again?

 

Case A.

 

Dice is a wolf. Talya didn't hammer Zander, therefore Dice does not have a shot left.

 

Case B.

 

I am a wolf. Talya didn't hammer Zander, therefore I do not have a shot left.

 

Case C.

 

Zander is a wolf. Talya didn't hammer Zander, because Zander still had a bullet in the chamber.

 

We lose tomorrow only if we lynch me or Dice and Case C is the case.  ONLY IN CASE C.

 

@Bfg, @Dice,

 

IF YOU WANT TO WIN LYNCH ZANDER.

Case A is extremely unlikely. I'd announced I was likely to hammer about 15 minutes before Dice unvoted. There is zero reason for Dice to unvote in that situation if mafia, because mafia still need mislynches.

 

Case B. I really don't follow (still, sorry) how you determine that if you were mafia in this situation you wouldn't have a shot left.  

 

Case C. Yeah, I need to review how long Zander was at L1 and Talya could have hammered.

 

 

So essentially what Zander needs to answer is why he tried to vote Rand to L1, while saying he was willing to vote Laine Day 2...

 

i was waiting on Laine;s answer to her soft claim.  you even quoted you liked my response if im not mistaken.

 

I did, but right now I find everyone pretty townie, but one of you is mafia. I get why you didn't vote Laine, but WHY did you put Rand to L1 (or try to; Shad unvoted between your failed vote and your unfailed vote)

 

 

 

 

it started with a gut read.  she's playing too clean man.  NO ONE thoughts shes scum yet in every game ive played with her as Town!Talya people have suss'ed her early and often. 

 

this is VERY alarming.  others are now starting to put the peices together as well.  im not the best at building cases Dice as you know from Star Wars.  I believe Im right here

 

and with the PoE this small it only makes me even more certain!!!!

 

i didnt like her comment about a Rand town flip makes Verb look good then voting Verb either.

 

i think its very likely AJ/Talya as the last 2 wolves imo.

Then why were you voting Verb with her?

 

 

because i didnt like her comment/reasoning behind it.  i voted Verb for the same reasons as you and the rest did.

 

So your reads are independent of each other?

 

 

This is pure 'math' here. Zander will try to sway you with AtE and slander. He will say I am jumping the gun in some posts, while missing the point: he is outed to me. The ONLY reason he hasn't done the same to me yet is because HE IS A WOLF WHO HASN'T YET DEALT WITH A MYLO SITUATION. He didn't clue in that it was a poe for him at the start of day 7. That is all the proof you need to hammer the nail into his coffin.

 

Not to say there isn't more evidence, but that's enough.

 

1. Zander is the optimal lynch. We get to clear him if he is town, or win outright if he is a wolf.

 

2. Thane can't be a wolf with Talya. He started a CFD on her when Zander was at L-1 for god's sake, all the while knowing he HAD TO GO ON VACATION AND WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE TOWN CRED.

 

What do you mean by the bold? I don't disagree with the rest

 

 

 

 

Good morning Talya, BFG

 

Talya, I pointed out a few of Thanes posts, but haven't commented on liking any of them, other than conversation. I'm okay leaving him in null still until I can read him better.

  

@BFG: Zander and Shad are acting the same as usual, so I'm pretty comfortable reading them both as town. I really don't see either as being mafia here; I feel like there would be a change in their play that I haven't seen as of yet.

 

Yates and AJ are just gut, I suppose, not really sure on them but I'm leaning that way from their interactions I've seen in the thread.

  

 

 

 

i get the feeling that we're still missing a few players..... hopefully they will get in before DL

 

i contemplate voting Yates... he rands wolf way too often, so it'd be an excellent D1 guess imo :tongue:

 

According to the CCSOWH if Yates looks towny D1 ignore him if not,,,,,,,,lolololol

 Yates actually looking more towny thus far then in SW imo.

 

Agreed. Need more time to figure him out though. Remember, if he claims mason, we lynch him immediately.

 

I don't like Thane's comment

 

 

This is the first post you say you don't like his comments

 

 

Unfortunately I can, Zander. Thoughts on other players?

 

Theres not much to go on but Im feeling good On Yates.  Finding him way more into the game and he's just Yatesing.(tm pending)

 

Like AJ tone much better

 

Alanna is always mayor in my town!

 

Only one kinda pinging me in the least is Talya can't quite put my finger on it.

 

Try! Odd comment from no where

  

for the moment, Zander is the only one i trust here. I can always Vig him if he betrays me in another game.

 

As for Verb and Pral, they'd be 0 info lynches. Would be nice to wreck some wolves without too much town casualties this game, and we'd need to gather info to do so, right?

 

I'll be coming and going this weekend, depending on how the kids want to spend their time *nods*

  

Well who would have figured on July 4th nowhere would be open? I really really wanted Asian food of some sort but all closed. At least I have booze. I'll just make a pizza :dry:

 

Thane always pings a little. I would feel bad lynching him though after Star Wars

  

So he pings a little but would feel bad after SW game Why. He was wolf there, why would you feel bad here

 

 

Shad - can you explain the town read on BFG?

On a phone so I can't easily quote right now, but it's all on page 4. Basically similar to Yates' approach to Talya and Zander--I created an opportunity for what I felt would be a towny observation and she took the bait. She pointed out something that I noticed but that I don't think the average scum player would.

 

Which was what - that I hadn't been asking questions as you suggested?

 

I can see what Shad is saying here makes sense.

I'm using my iPad (did I say I got one....*giggles*) so doing this in parts not as easy as I thought

 

On phone.

 

My notes are talya is likely distancing after talking strategy with zander. You can see how zander nudges her a few pages before this and now she does the same to him and laine.

 

Laine is pairing wolves and towns to avoid spew. I know i have more info than u bfg but its true. U snd talya then zander and shad

 

 

what info is that Sili??  the maf qt?

 

This feels like sniping.

 

Zander at this point there is one mafia left between you, Thane/Sili and Dice, who is it? And why?

 

 

If I gather any more evidence it will all be about how me and Dice are town and Zander is a wolf. There isn't any more detective work for me to do because I know it can't be Dice or BFG. :huh:

But you still have convincing to do :/

 

Zander was at L-1 for 26 minutes, and Talya was around and active.

 

From Zander's perspective the wolf is me or Dice, and he has been reading Dice as solid town for days now. Town him 'knew' I was almost always a wolf coming into today because he was reading Dice as town. Did I miss something here? (Maybe Zander adjusted his reads during the night)

Posted

Lol, I guess now the BT game has finished...

 

Dice what do you make of the difference between Zanders defence when being run up in that game to this one?

Posted

More succinct is...

 

Zander is what makes this mylo. We lose nothing lynching him. We would do this even if we thought he was town (he ain't though). The only argument for not lynching him is Talya messed up big and threw the game.

 

this is the second or third time uve bought this up and its making my gut churn. We possibly lose the game if we go wrong today. There is no way for us to know if you or zander have a bullet left.

 

yes i know you said thane shot Hally but i dont KNOW that to be true. especially as it really makes no sense. Yates was ALWAYS going to shoot hally is what it looked like so why waste ure shot?

 

Bfg,

 

If I were mafia and I had a gun Talya would have hammered. Talya did not hammer, therefore I cannot be a wolf with a gun.

 

Again not true. Talya not hammering gave her town cred  a gift for a mafia near end game. it does not neccesarily reflect whether or not her partner has a bullet

Posted

@BFG re Laine  it was all tone. the way she jumped at me making a joke at her was different to how she'd jumped at 2 other people

 

 

im not even recalling what zanders defence was in Monarchs BFG and dont have time to hunt

Posted

As for zanders "slip"  that reads both ways. If I was sili and wanting to not get lynched id read it as a slip too. but as me im not sure i do

I agree with you on the 'slip' not really being a slip. Its a juxtaposition of present knowledge being superimposed over prior knowledge, or something.

 

What are you currently thinking?

Posted

 

More succinct is...

 

Zander is what makes this mylo. We lose nothing lynching him. We would do this even if we thought he was town (he ain't though). The only argument for not lynching him is Talya messed up big and threw the game.

 

this is the second or third time uve bought this up and its making my gut churn. We possibly lose the game if we go wrong today. There is no way for us to know if you or zander have a bullet left.

 

yes i know you said thane shot Hally but i dont KNOW that to be true. especially as it really makes no sense. Yates was ALWAYS going to shoot hally is what it looked like so why waste ure shot?

 

Bfg,

 

If I were mafia and I had a gun Talya would have hammered. Talya did not hammer, therefore I cannot be a wolf with a gun.

 

Again not true. Talya not hammering gave her town cred  a gift for a mafia near end game. it does not neccesarily reflect whether or not her partner has a bullet

 

Right, so Talya went for a bit of (entirely insubstantial) town cred, instead of winning the game outright.

 

But you agree, Zander says he knew Talya was a wolf. But Zander says I am misrepping him, except I am not.

Posted

I dont think Sili/Thane shot Hallia at all, I think it was Yates, 

I dont like how Sili tried to mis rep me either. 

I dont like his ABSOLUTE cases/scenario's with factors left out of them like about shots and factors around them..

 

DM not letting me quote somethings. If you have any questions please ask direct i think its too many quotes or something,

 

Im sticking with my reads here: atp everyone has made good posts and a few iffy ones but Thane/Sili have the most suspicion for me.

 

[v] Sili [/v]

Posted

@BFG re Laine  it was all tone. the way she jumped at me making a joke at her was different to how she'd jumped at 2 other people

 

 

im not even recalling what zanders defence was in Monarchs BFG and dont have time to hunt

His defence in Monarchs was a couple of posts saying 'he was town, what's the case? Don't lynch him'. It could be the difference between this game being at mylo and that game not or it could be difference in reactions, but the reactions are completely opposite.

 

Right now his absence isn't helping :/ He also seems to be dodging around calling Sili mafia, he's done that all game, throughout Day 1, I was his second read (his only other read) and he waffled between calling me mafia or frustrated town... however, To an extent I can't fault him, the thread's felt pretty townie.

Posted

 

As for zanders "slip"  that reads both ways. If I was sili and wanting to not get lynched id read it as a slip too. but as me im not sure i do

I agree with you on the 'slip' not really being a slip. Its a juxtaposition of present knowledge being superimposed over prior knowledge, or something.

 

What are you currently thinking?

 

Fine, lol.
Posted

I dont think Sili/Thane shot Hallia at all, I think it was Yates, 

I dont like how Sili tried to mis rep me either. 

I dont like his ABSOLUTE cases/scenario's with factors left out of them like about shots and factors around them..

 

DM not letting me quote somethings. If you have any questions please ask direct i think its too many quotes or something,

 

Im sticking with my reads here: atp everyone has made good posts and a few iffy ones but Thane/Sili have the most suspicion for me.

 

[v] Sili [/v]

Why would I lie about shooting Hallia?

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