Escape From The Carnival Of Horrors! Game Thread [Mafia Win]

[Thane Vakarian]

i think it's a solid reason.

 

possibility 1) She's town and thinks i'm wolf : she'll be lynched next because nobody will buy she's town when i flip town

possibility 2) She's a wolf and wants to kill a townie. Would be suicide; and i don't think Leelou is suicidal as wolf

[Leelou]

Red -

 

I agree about Crusher. I think I'm starting to get paranoid, but I don't like his push on me. It looked like he was going to go with Hallia before and jumped on my train easily.

 

Yeah, I've regrouped myself and after my boss goes to her meeting, I'm going to read through the thread again and see what I have clearly been missing all game.

 

I was expecting Thane to hammer me, I'm surprised he didn't. 

 

Verb, can I ask that you unvote me for now? I don't like being within hammer range. 

[Leelou]

[unvote]

 

Thanks, I walked away while I was mid typing before posting. 

[Andrej]

Don't go limp yet Verb.

[Thane Vakarian]

the reason why i didn't hammer is simple: i wasn't convinced you're a wolf after reading half the game, Leelou.

 

and, morning AJ

[Andrej]

Good morning Thane.

[Verbal32]

Don't go limp yet Verb.

 

Ouch, lol.

 

Here's my thought process:  If Thane is scum with Leelou, he hammers her and gains perhaps a little town cred.  If he's town, I think he hammers her anyway.

 

But if he's scum and she's TOWN, then I think he tries for cred by going elsewhere knowing she's the likely lynch and her town flip will make him look better.

 

 

Just how I'm approaching this right now....might be way off, but I'm starting to think Leelou is not the right lynch today and Thane is.

[Thane Vakarian]

I'm thinking we should look beyond Leelou and me, Verb. I'm quite certain she's no wolf and i know i'm town.

 

I have voted my suspect, and i think my vote will stay there.

[Thane Vakarian]

be back later, gonna pick up my ladies

[Verbal32]

Where is Tina?

[Verbal32]

Lurky Tina with no thoughtful commentary is a scummy Tina.

[Verbal32]

Town:

 

Verbal: I still have him as town. I like how he questioned AJ.

Sili: OMG! Stop posting so much. (I appologize to you and Nolder for not reading all of your post. I got lost after a while and had no idea what you were arguing about.  I´m sure I might have missed something important but I just couldn´t read it.) I still have him as town because of his D1 activity. 

Red: well she hasn´t posted much but I understand her vote on Kay

 

People that I´m not sure about:

 

AJ: Have some good comments, especially about Nolder. But I didn´t like his back and forth with Verbal. He is more close to town than mafia. 

Crusher: I think I could read him okay when I played at JN but here at DM I can´t. He posts too little. I guess his list was okay but has he done anything after that? Need more content.

Thane: The same as Crusher. He has posted too little. I guess it´s because of rl but he takes his time to come in and not actually say much at all. Need more content.

Leelou: I still don´t like her comments to Verb on D1 but I like her vote on Hally. It´s hard for me to understand people when I suspect them and then they make a good case on someone else that I also suspect. I´m on the fence about Leelou.

 

Nolder: Like AJ said, I remember that Nolder has done this as mafia before - posted a lot! I´m not sure if it´s to look active or to hide things or... 

Kaylee: She posted a list in #798, which was very vague. The only people she seems sure of is her town reads = afraid to point out mafia. (I´ll post it in next post.)

Hally: She had very few posts yesterday and those she has today is not very convincing. She thinks AJ/Verb is town-town  but Sili/Nol is mafia-town. She says that she can vote one of them. Like it doesn´t matter who. Her stance on Leelou is strange. She thinks Leelou is town but she doesn´t agree with Leelou that her vote on Nolder was OMGUS. The she questions why Leelou thinks Sili/Nol is town-town. So why does she think Leelou is town? It looks like she is trying to buddying her since she is voting her. I´ll post quotes in next post.

 

 

Summary: I could vote Nolder, Kaylee or Hally. 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is Kaylee´s list. She said she would come back with a new list after re-reading. 

 

1. Verbal32 - Town

 

2. Sili Quirrels - not sure honestly keep going back and forth, will look at him more tomorrow night.

 

3. Thane Vakarian - an

other i need to look back on.

 

4. Hallia - Null to scum. Leaning scum from the EOD and lack of content. I know she's done that as town too though so hoping she comes back soon...

 

5. Nolder- another one I keep going back and forth on. Leaning town atm.

 

6. TinaHel- town lean

 

7. The Crusher- first game together so Unsure need to go back through.

 

9. Leelou- Leaning scum. Mostly has to do with my strong town read of Verb and his feelings on her tbh.

 

10. Kaylee

 

11. Andrej- feeling town but the exchange with Verbal has me questioning that...

 

13. Red2111- IDK. Really need to read back through. I liked her bulldog reaction on me. Made it fell like her town game but will read through again.

 

Basically she has me and Verb as town. She is conflicted on several and needs to read up on the rest. Basically a lot of fence sitting and being afraid of taking a stance. Now, she said she would come back with better reads but then I really don´t see the point of this list. To look active? She has taken time to defend her actions from yesterday. 

 

 

Yeah, so read the top quote.  I called out what I think of as fence-sitting comments, and then made blue the line where she literally says she's fence sitting..........but then calls Kaylee out on this in literally the very next post.

[Leelou]

Thoughts on the lovable Crushman? 

[Verbal32]

Lemme ISO really quick to confirm my thoughts.

[Red2111]

Red -

 

I agree about Crusher. I think I'm starting to get paranoid, but I don't like his push on me. It looked like he was going to go with Hallia before and jumped on my train easily.

 

Yeah, I've regrouped myself and after my boss goes to her meeting, I'm going to read through the thread again and see what I have clearly been missing all game.

 

I was expecting Thane to hammer me, I'm surprised he didn't. 

 

Verb, can I ask that you unvote me for now? I don't like being within hammer range. 

 

*nods*

 

 

Don't go limp yet Verb.

 

*snickers*

 

 

 

Don't go limp yet Verb.

 

Ouch, lol.

 

Here's my thought process:  If Thane is scum with Leelou, he hammers her and gains perhaps a little town cred.  If he's town, I think he hammers her anyway.

 

But if he's scum and she's TOWN, then I think he tries for cred by going elsewhere knowing she's the likely lynch and her town flip will make him look better.

 

 

Just how I'm approaching this right now....might be way off, but I'm starting to think Leelou is not the right lynch today and Thane is.

 

 

that thought occurred to me as well.  as it stands, if Leelou flips scum then Thane pretty much outted himself with that vote.

 

doing a bit more thinking over the night on the kill on Sili, it was a novice move.   either Sili used his BG to protect AJ (he posted a Healer better protect AJ post N2) and the kill got redirected to him.   or the scum took him out directly.

 

doign a bit of out of game meta on that assumption on the NK and how i think players as scum would direct the NK ...

 

Leelou, Verb, Tina, and possibly Crush and AJ would have argued against targetting both Sili and AJ.  AJ was two WIFOM on protection wise, and Sili's use as distraction townie wasn't over, it would be easy to argue the "Nol and him distancing" on thread aspect after a few mis lynches and strategic NK's.  they would have been better to keep on the trend of taking out strong & vocal townies who everyone has pretty much cleared (like with Nyn)

 

its another reason why i'd rather have Thane over leelou at this point

[Verbal32]

Thoughts on the lovable Crushman? 

 

Crusher has basically done the following things this game:

 

1.  fat guy humor

2.  soft defense of Nolder (including an unvote and moving to another train)

3.  riding my coattails on pushing you

 

That's essentially it in my ISO.  He avoids making a read on Thane completely - talks about no meta and needs to look into him.  This far into the game, that should not be an excuse.

 

I'd feel more strongly about Crush being scum if not for Thane putting Crush in his WTL POE pile.

[Kaylee]

[unvote]

 

That actually makes a lot of sense Red. I was surprised Sili was the kill.

[Verbal32]

 

Red -

 

I agree about Crusher. I think I'm starting to get paranoid, but I don't like his push on me. It looked like he was going to go with Hallia before and jumped on my train easily.

 

Yeah, I've regrouped myself and after my boss goes to her meeting, I'm going to read through the thread again and see what I have clearly been missing all game.

 

I was expecting Thane to hammer me, I'm surprised he didn't. 

 

Verb, can I ask that you unvote me for now? I don't like being within hammer range. 

 

*nods*

 

 

Don't go limp yet Verb.

 

*snickers*

 

 

 

Don't go limp yet Verb.

 

Ouch, lol.

 

Here's my thought process:  If Thane is scum with Leelou, he hammers her and gains perhaps a little town cred.  If he's town, I think he hammers her anyway.

 

But if he's scum and she's TOWN, then I think he tries for cred by going elsewhere knowing she's the likely lynch and her town flip will make him look better.

 

 

Just how I'm approaching this right now....might be way off, but I'm starting to think Leelou is not the right lynch today and Thane is.

 

 

that thought occurred to me as well.  as it stands, if Leelou flips scum then Thane pretty much outted himself with that vote.

 

doing a bit more thinking over the night on the kill on Sili, it was a novice move.   either Sili used his BG to protect AJ (he posted a Healer better protect AJ post N2) and the kill got redirected to him.   or the scum took him out directly.

 

doign a bit of out of game meta on that assumption on the NK and how i think players as scum would direct the NK ...

 

Leelou, Verb, Tina, and possibly Crush and AJ would have argued against targetting both Sili and AJ.  AJ was two WIFOM on protection wise, and Sili's use as distraction townie wasn't over, it would be easy to argue the "Nol and him distancing" on thread aspect after a few mis lynches and strategic NK's.  they would have been better to keep on the trend of taking out strong & vocal townies who everyone has pretty much cleared (like with Nyn)

 

its another reason why i'd rather have Thane over leelou at this point

 

 

I know that's heavy meta, but I can't fault the logic at all.  I would not put Crusher in that group, though - I think he'd be fine with a shot @ AJ or Sili.

 

My take on that is scum tried to take out Sili assuming AJ would have protection.  In other words, they went Doc Hunting and targeted Sili because he made that comment you reference about protection.

 

I'm also moving you to my Blues for this post.

 

 

AJ

Red

Hallia

Tina

Kaylee

Leelou

Crusher

Thane

[Andrej]

Thane could've not hammered Leelou simply because they are both wolves with one partner already down and he realized lynching her wouldn't save his hide anyway.

 

Let's not over complicate this.

 

I would be fine moving to Thane for today but if he flips red I'll be going right back to Leelou. The way they've carried each other in their reads up to this point is pretty obvious imo. Thane kept her as an outside suspect (surprise, until today!) and Leelou keeping him as a stale null read despite going for other players (and likely townie's based on Nolder interactions) like Hallia for the same low content "hi, bye" type posts.

[Verbal32]

That's fine.  I have Leelou orange still.  I actually think her lynch would clear Crusher's alignment based on how she's asking me to look into him.

[Leelou]

Thane could've not hammered Leelou simply because they are both wolves with one partner already down and he realized lynching her wouldn't save his hide anyway.

 

Let's not over complicate this.

 

I would be fine moving to Thane for today but if he flips red I'll be going right back to Leelou. The way they've carried each other in their reads up to this point is pretty obvious imo. Thane kept her as an outside suspect (surprise, until today!) and Leelou keeping him as a stale null read despite going for other players (and likely townie's based on Nolder interactions) like Hallia for the same low content "hi, bye" type posts.

 

you do realize I don't play like that as scum, right? 

[Andrej]

Crusher has some scum equity, I admit. The meta read on Nolder could've been so spot on because they're scum together, but I'm not decided yet. Does he have a pension to bus?

 

Like I said before, lynching Leelou will illuminate a lot of player's alignments considering who she has pushed at D1 and D2.

[Verbal32]

Very true.

 

Re: Crusher, yes - he'd bus.  He and Nolder might have tried to use his hard-to-lynch status to get him deep into the game, dunno.

[Andrej]

Leelou with the meta defense lol. You're need to do better than that if you want me off your back.

 

I've caught you before as scum and I'm pretty sure I've got you nabbed again this game. You played sloppy and now you're linked up pretty cleanly.

[Leelou]

Dude, can you stop for like 2 minutes? I'm trying to read through the thread, but this is getting old. You haven't caught me, you are dead wrong. But if lynching me helps you find others alignments, then fine. Just stop thinking that you've caught me as scum. You've caught me having a bad game and I'm trying to fix it.