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[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread


Tommyrod

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Posted

So I did an actual reread of parts of the thread.

 

This has been skewered by the weekend.  Post-flip on Yates some people reacted stiffly (verbacle, kiv) and some people have tried to use it heavily (deslami, nyn).  Most disappeared to some extent.  The only loud people I haven't found odd in their approach to this day are Wombat, AJ and Cass.  That most others have been absent and the lynch has sat so much implies DADV but that too seems awkward both because Verb has been absent himself and because I don't see this as a scum dominated thread regardless of the implication.

 

Also, it doesn't matter who has equity for scum or sk.  Anti-town is non-town.  Kill it with fire.  

 

I'm going to stop talking in the abstract now. 

 
Kivam is getting mentioned a lot and that seems appropriate.  Despite the fact that he doesn't have a ton of town cred in general he is bringing a lot of information to this thread and isn't managing much meaningful interaction.  I don't see it as townlike that he has WIM in his particular situation but that's POV stuff.  This read of Kiv is gut as much as anything else but I didn't expect him to be so clinical on thread and that combined with self-referential arguments both are off IMO.  
 
Deslami is down on my list based on how convoluted their play would be for scum (I know that's a terrible argument) and yet the more I reread of them the more inconsistencies I find, not only between individual play but between the two of them.  For instance, I recall distinctly arguing with Des at one point that I would be a great lynch if the town (couldn't find the specific post) wanted to do an info lynch that day and I called him out for contrived reasoning because every so often Des would mention me for something different and then my name would fall off their radar and then I would be brought back up and voted for a different reason.  Des argued for pages that his reasons for voting me weren't contrived despite that not being the point of the post I made.  Then in 1614 Des went on about how he hates info lynches and didn't want one.  I'm perfectly willing to lynch this slot based on the incredible contradiction inherent here.  These are the sorts of long term slips that you catch scum on.  
 
Verbacle is in the red for me as they have been because of early game arguments, which I still have down.  Nyn covered these well and I currently don't think that those two slots are at all likely to be scum together, but I do think that there is a wolf between them.  Leelou's death actually sticks out to me here but Barm is somewhat covering for this slot.  I have similar problems with him that I have with Kivam, though to a lesser extent, and am currently voting them.
 
Hally I'd prefer to see vigged than lynched but should she not show up by the next day phase and remain alive I'd consider a lynch there.  She has a total of four posts and they are fairly worthless.  4/2400 is roughly 1/500th of the thread btw.  
 
 
Moving past my lynch candidates I think the following people look great and, barring some large shift in the game or me being dreadfully wrong on the above list I don't see myself helping lynch them.
 
DPR - Seer peek, is branching out a lot on thread
Andrej - Seem to mindmeld on occasion, has played cleanly and shows good analysis of situations
Wombat - Have wavered on him a few times but ultimately I'd have to think of pretty extravagant scenarios where he would be scum, which isn't yet warranted
Cass - Nobody bit on the argument that she knew too much for a single mentor to provide her, which was a bit transparent I suppose.  I haven't seen anything bad from her yet save a propensity to trust others but that's not alignment indicative.
 
My seer peek is in the remnant.  That's a group of people who haven't yet proven themselves well enough one way or another.  
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Posted

So I did an actual reread of parts of the thread.

 

This has been skewered by the weekend.  Post-flip on Yates some people reacted stiffly (verbacle, kiv) and some people have tried to use it heavily (deslami, nyn).  Most disappeared to some extent.  The only loud people I haven't found odd in their approach to this day are Wombat, AJ and Cass.  That most others have been absent and the lynch has sat so much implies DADV but that too seems awkward both because Verb has been absent himself and because I don't see this as a scum dominated thread regardless of the implication.

 

Also, it doesn't matter who has equity for scum or sk.  Anti-town is non-town.  Kill it with fire.  

 

I'm going to stop talking in the abstract now. 

 
Kivam is getting mentioned a lot and that seems appropriate.  Despite the fact that he doesn't have a ton of town cred in general he is bringing a lot of information to this thread and isn't managing much meaningful interaction.  I don't see it as townlike that he has WIM in his particular situation but that's POV stuff.  This read of Kiv is gut as much as anything else but I didn't expect him to be so clinical on thread and that combined with self-referential arguments both are off IMO.  
 
Deslami is down on my list based on how convoluted their play would be for scum (I know that's a terrible argument) and yet the more I reread of them the more inconsistencies I find, not only between individual play but between the two of them.  For instance, I recall distinctly arguing with Des at one point that I would be a great lynch if the town (couldn't find the specific post) wanted to do an info lynch that day and I called him out for contrived reasoning because every so often Des would mention me for something different and then my name would fall off their radar and then I would be brought back up and voted for a different reason.  Des argued for pages that his reasons for voting me weren't contrived despite that not being the point of the post I made.  Then in 1614 Des went on about how he hates info lynches and didn't want one.  I'm perfectly willing to lynch this slot based on the incredible contradiction inherent here.  These are the sorts of long term slips that you catch scum on.  I should a
 
Verbacle is in the red for me as they have been because of early game arguments, which I still have down.  Nyn covered these well and I currently don't think that those two slots are at all likely to be scum together, but I do think that there is a wolf between them.  Leelou's death actually sticks out to me here but Barm is somewhat covering for this slot.  I have similar problems with him that I have with Kivam, though to a lesser extent, and am currently voting them.
 
Hally I'd prefer to see vigged than lynched but should she not show up by the next day phase and remain alive I'd consider a lynch there.  She has a total of four posts and they are fairly worthless.  4/2400 is roughly 1/500th of the thread btw.  
 
 
Moving past my lynch candidates I think the following people look great and, barring some large shift in the game or me being dreadfully wrong on the above list I don't see myself helping lynch them.
 
DPR - Seer peek, is branching out a lot on thread
Andrej - Seem to mindmeld on occasion, has played cleanly and shows good analysis of situations
Wombat - Have wavered on him a few times but ultimately I'd have to think of pretty extravagant scenarios where he would be scum, which isn't yet warranted
Cass - Nobody bit on the argument that she knew too much for a single mentor to provide her, which was a bit transparent I suppose.  I haven't seen anything bad from her yet save a propensity to trust others but that's not alignment indicative.
 
My seer peek is in the remnant.  That's a group of people who haven't yet proven themselves well enough one way or another.  

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 3:02 AM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 2:38 PM, Despothera said:

@Kivam: nothing I said there is actually wrong. It IS more dubious to hunt a SK than hunt scum. Sure, you can look for someone "playing in the middle" or slightly too worried about self-preservation, but there will often be multiple people who would arguably fit in that category. Hell, you yourself would fit in that category atm.

Hunting for mafia is much less dubious, ESPECIALLY in this circumstance. Mafia will often have links to each other of SOME kind ITT, whether it's distancing that seems fake, concerted pushes on things or people, or outright ignoring one another a bit too much. And in this instance, we already have a dead Mafioso which gives us a wealth if knowledge we can use to find his other teammates.

So yes, I'm fairly experienced, and while my game can shift anywhere from top tier to "loldespot" I wouldn't consider myself a bad player, and I still think what I was saying is valid

 

Yes.  It's easier to catch mafia than a SK.  But it's also more important early in a game to catch the SK than mafia, just because of how it impacts the numbers.  Which is why everyone should have their eyes open for SK possibilities and if there's a case to be made, prioritize it over wolves.

 

Again, nobody should ignore an obvious mafioso for a potential SK, and we can't stop hunting wolves.  But we absolutely have to stop referring to people as "lock town" based on their interactions with scum, or seeming "legit scumhunting" etc., and watch for the type of play that could indicate a serial.

 

Was stating obvious things always your shtick?  This isn't gaining you town cred with me and I'm growing tired of reading mafia for dummies, the game.  Why are you trying to peg one versus the other instead of hunting by town/not?  It looks like you want to shift attention to a specific group or subset.

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 3:20 AM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:53 PM, Andrej said:

I'm not getting into this with you Kivam.

 

It's a distraction and the scenario we are talking about very likely didn't happen anyway so further time wasted on talking about it is going to get us nowhere.

 

If you think I'm a wolf for it then shut up and vote me already but I'm not going to engage on this line of talk anymore.

 

In other words, "I can't think of even a single logical reason to back up the argument I made, so I'm going to change the subject"

 

So yeah, I'll take you up on that invite.  [v]##Andrej[/v]
 

 

Crap tier argument.  

 

I'm probably going either Kiv or Deslami today unless Verbacle shows back up because recency.

Posted

Derf looking solid town to me.  Conflicted on both Kivam and AJ.  Really hate how AJ has approached Kiv, but it's well within his town range.  Also really hate how Kiv has approached AJ, but Kiv's town range and scum range are pretty much identical so =\

 

 

Also, speaking of quotes from famous Englishmen, I think I've got a good one for this game:

 

"The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises, or else by some distinction sets aside and rejects; in order that by this great and pernicious predetermination the authority of its former conclusions may remain inviolate."

 

-Francis Bacon, Novum Organum, Aphorism XLVI

Posted

Mentioned some of it here, Darthe:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 9:46 PM, WWWwombat said:

As for Kivam, every argument he makes as scum is usually an argument he could make as town.  That's why he's so terrifying.  The difference is one of focus.  As scum, he won't examine certain lines of reasoning that he would as town, and he'll focus on others that he would give minimal attention as scum.  That's why I find his argument about me being the SK as wolfy.  It's internally consistent, but I don't think it's something he'd focus on yet as town.  Of course, I'll be the first to admit I could be biased from my PoV here, but that's my take.

 

 

 

I also mentioned (and Barm agreed with my take) that Kivam almost always seems probably town with the sneaking suspicion that he could be pulling the wool over your eyes.

 

Often, the only way I can catch Kivam as scum is if I think he's willfully ignoring something or if he just doesn't end up on the right wagons for the right reasons.

Posted

Also, Kivam is an extremely logical, analytic player.  A lot of the old school analytic players on JN like slats, CTM, and Sharrow tried to emulate his style to some degree imo.  Idk what exactly you mean by "clinical" but that may just be part of his general style.

Posted

So then you'd catch Kivam mainly late game by his direction and interpretation of the thread not matching up with what it should?  That doesn't quite fit what I see here.  Instead I see what I described as clinical, and will explain below.

 

Clinical is a term we use (sort of scathingly) in counseling psychology to describe when counselors are being detatched and analytical.  I've always connotatively thought of it as something that applies to when someone in mafia is trying to detach themselves from a scenario by hiding behind a veneer of professionalism or faux analytical persona.  

Posted
  On 11/17/2014 at 4:17 AM, WWWwombat said:

 

 

 

I also mentioned (and Barm agreed with my take) that Kivam almost always seems probably town with the sneaking suspicion that he could be pulling the wool over your eyes.

 

 

 

To be fair I don't have much of substance on him.  I thought it was odd D1 how he responded to me when I voted him, saying that he didn't feel any reason to react to pressure.  Mainly through today I've gotten the sense I described in my earlier analysis but it does remain kinda flimsy I suppose.  

 

Thoughts on Deslami?

Posted

Well just because I'm not good at catching Kivam early doesn't mean I'm gonna stop trying.  And like I said, the SK focus from him seems more scum!Kivam than town!Kivam but I could be biased given that it involves me.

 

Given your description of "clinical," I don't think it's an alignment tell for Kivam.  He's a lawyer and an analytical player.  He is willing to use meta but doesn't like it and generally prefers to attack logical arguments rather than trying to get into others' heads.

Posted

The Scum/SK thing is a bad argument that is being pushed too much anyhow.  I don't see it as pro-town to make the distinction so heavily.  This is dongvaulting, the newest internet craze.

 

LxaSnVh.gif

Posted

I think Des appears very town!Des but I don't like how Salami and Des are disagreeing so much ITT.  Some of that is probably that they don't play the same at all, but they have a QT to talk on and inconsistency between hydra heads is scummy in general imo.  I once saw you attack/discredit your other hydra head as scum once.  I think it was Amega or someone who couldn't stop scumtelling to save his life.  Overall, wary town lean on Deslami.

Posted

So as I started rereading, I realized I wasn't even sure if day had ended -.-  I scoured and found EOD1 and EON1; Glad to see I was right about Leelou.  I stopped my reread at 20 at that point, I wanna try to real time talk because that helps me best.  As far as I got though, I have a town read on Csarmageddon, AJ, and Verb.

 

  On 11/12/2014 at 1:40 AM, Hallia said:

FINALLY CATCHING UP PRAISE JEEBUS.  Up to page four.

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 1:25 PM, Leelou said:

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 1:24 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 1:21 PM, Leelou said:

Sup

Townie post.

Generic to the way I speak post.

 

I agree, and the vibe I get from Leelou is town so far.

 

 

 

  On 11/12/2014 at 1:59 AM, Hallia said:

Up to page 10 

  On 11/10/2014 at 2:33 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 2:32 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

*pinches self*
 
Yates, did you honestly just claim?


Standard Seer cover.

DND

 

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 3:41 PM, Andrej said:

Also if I'm the Seer I peeked Stelio

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Both of these fellows learned this a while back when we played a Turbo at PoG (Well, they might not have learned it there, but it was done)  So I could see them doing this as either town or wolf.

  On 11/10/2014 at 4:19 PM, Krakalakachkn said:

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 1:27 PM, Leelou said:

 

Not really, that shouldn't be judged as a townie or non townie post.

 

 

Anyone getting third party vibes from Leelou here?

 

Nope. 

 

This pinged with that knowledge, I wonder if this was intentionally done by scum to cast aspersion on a townie.

Posted

Hally quoted her own post and said it pinged.

 

 

I have nothing positive left in this night.  Do I vote you now Hally?  What do I do?

Posted
  On 11/17/2014 at 4:38 AM, WWWwombat said:

I think Des appears very town!Des but I don't like how Salami and Des are disagreeing so much ITT.  Some of that is probably that they don't play the same at all, but they have a QT to talk on and inconsistency between hydra heads is scummy in general imo.  I once saw you attack/discredit your other hydra head as scum once.  I think it was Amega or someone who couldn't stop scumtelling to save his life.  Overall, wary town lean on Deslami.

I've considered this very much within Town!Des range for most of the game but after going back there were really big internal contradictions, the most glaring of which being the one I pointed out where Des called me a good info lynch, I asked how I could see his calling me scum for different reasons anything other than contrived, he pushed me for calling it contrived and then he later said he hates info lynches.  Turnarounds like that can't be ignored.

Posted
  On 11/17/2014 at 4:44 AM, Hallia said:

I was referring to Krak, not myself.  If you'd read it, you'd know that?

I did read it.  You quoted your response, not his post.

Posted
  On 11/17/2014 at 4:42 AM, Hallia said:

So as I started rereading, I realized I wasn't even sure if day had ended -.-  I scoured and found EOD1 and EON1; Glad to see I was right about Leelou.  I stopped my reread at 20 at that point, I wanna try to real time talk because that helps me best.  As far as I got though, I have a town read on Csarmageddon, AJ, and Verb.

 

  On 11/12/2014 at 1:40 AM, Hallia said:

FINALLY CATCHING UP PRAISE JEEBUS.  Up to page four.

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 1:25 PM, Leelou said:

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 1:24 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 1:21 PM, Leelou said:

Sup

Townie post.

Generic to the way I speak post.

 

I agree, and the vibe I get from Leelou is town so far.

 

 

 

  On 11/12/2014 at 1:59 AM, Hallia said:

Up to page 10 

  On 11/10/2014 at 4:19 PM, Krakalakachkn said:

 

  On 11/10/2014 at 1:27 PM, Leelou said:

 

Not really, that shouldn't be judged as a townie or non townie post.

 

 

Anyone getting third party vibes from Leelou here?

 

 

 

Nope. 

 

This pinged with that knowledge, I wonder if this was intentionally done by scum to cast aspersion on a townie.

Posted

@Darthe: There's no inconsistency there. Info lynches were being discussed, I mentioned that I thought you would be a good info lynch since a bunch of people had discussed you and you yourself interacted with other noteworthy candidates.

 

That doesn't mean I was pushing that we should go for an info lynch- I think an "info lynch" is pretty dumb if it seems it's landing on a likely townie. I was more trying to make a point against Kivam who was arguing that Sili and Thane would be good info lynches- two people I found more likely to be town

Posted

Fwiw tho you've seemed a little townier of late and I also don't think the point you're making isn't really that scummy, more just paranoia on your part.

 

Other points made against me and Csarmi lately have been MUCH worse than the one you just made

Posted

Up through 27:

 

  On 11/11/2014 at 3:30 AM, Yates. said:

 

  On 11/11/2014 at 3:12 AM, Darthe said:

Yates what are your thoughts on Kiv, Wombat, Deslami and Barm?

I just told Kiv my thoughts on him - he's hard to follow. Never played with him before. He looks rusty - like Rags was in that VS game - and using old school mafia logic. Probably going to make him hard to read as not-scum.
I can't tell if Wombat was being overzealous Town or Scum feeling the mood of the thread with that early push. So he's a null with an asterisk.
I forgot Deslami was a hydra. I find myself agreeing with a lot of Csarmi posts - which means I either figured out how to read him or his logic is sound. Des is Des. Give me until tomorrow on this slot.
Barm hasn't done anything outside of his Town range. I don't have a ton of experience with him but I actually got his logic most of the time in the 2 or so games we played together. He also seems to have decent instincts as the game progresses if Town so I'd like to keep him around. Plus I just realized he's hydra with Verb as I was making my "not willing to lynch" list. So this should be an interesting slot to read.

My Day 1 not willing to lynch list looks something like:
Dice [N0 - inno]
AJ
Verb/Barm
Desalami
Thane
Leelou
Barm

My let the NA's sort them out list is:
Wombat
Arsis
Hally
Krak
Nyn
Sili
Rags

Cass, Kivim, and Stelio are all new to me. It's been a LONG time since I played with DPR. So I may be looking for help on these guys.

And with that - I'm going to bed.

 

Quoted for convenience, but I'm not sure how a typical Yates would arrange a read list.  I'm most leery of Dice though.  He certainly is a confident enough player to try to clear someone that way.

 

  On 11/11/2014 at 11:38 AM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

SUPGATE - Salami soft serves an invitation to make hay. Darthe and Womby bite, but at different ends and the ball starts rolling. HWSIDI moment? 

 

Darthe is so weary. Like, depressing weary. Why so serious?

 

D1 Yates decides to make a "Just Say No To Drugs" speech and claim Seer to clear Dice. That's like, really really town. Really.

 

Pushers gonna push.

Not sure if sarcasm. O.o

  On 11/11/2014 at 2:38 PM, Despothera said:

 

  On 11/11/2014 at 2:35 PM, Yates. said:

I'd like to put this "let's not cheat" post to bed by pointing out the logic implied by Des's summation here:

  On 11/11/2014 at 7:43 AM, Despothera said:

Look at the whole #Alliance thing. If one of that group rolls scum, you think they'll back down from forming a "town" power core with the other members of it who are actually town? Hell to the nah. They'll act like they're ready to #alliance it up just like normal.

Des basically just stated why me saying up front that we can't play that way is a Town null tell. If I'm scum? Why not abuse it since I *DIDN'T* get a chance to say it pregame? I gain nothing as scum pointing this out and instead make myself a huge suspect - at least in AJ and Dice's eyes. So there is zero scum motivation for making this post.

My Town personal motivation is obviously because I actually care about the integrity of the game. Which was my stated motivation in my original post. Okay? Good? Good.

The only caveat here is that you COULD be scum and ALSO value the "integrity" of the "Three Amigos/soulread with Dice" thing, and wanted to preempt AJ and Dice being able to use that against you.

 

 

  On 11/11/2014 at 3:02 PM, Nynaeve said:

Feel free to ignore the topic. But trying to say that you'd never bring it up as scum is you trying to utilize it to gain town cred.

Quoted Des and Nyn here, because as far as I've read, with knowing Yates flipped scum, I'm pretty confident they're both town.

  On 11/11/2014 at 3:02 PM, Yates. said:

Still the only Seer in the game.

Still have a Town result on Dice.

FTR - my Dice investigation was the result of a random role by mod since I didn't see my role until 2 hours after my NA was due - as evidenced by the time stamp of my first post. Thanks for asking about this very pertinent piece of information, btw.

Feel even worse about this.

Posted
  On 11/17/2014 at 4:26 AM, Darthe said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 That doesn't quite fit what I see here.  Instead I see what I described as clinical, and will explain below.

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

This is kinda close to what I see with Kiv also. Except, I think of him more like a defense attorney presenting scum cases to a court/jury than a counselor simply analysing what is going on. He speaks volumes of straight-forward logic, and uses the sense of that along with carefully worded arguments and occasional emotional appeals to lead 'listeners' down the paths that will get him/his clients the results they want. Just because he's smart and analytical doesn't mean what he's feeding us is straight. He's told us that himself.

 

I still have him close to red.

 

I guess that's why I find 

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