Freemasons vs. Illuminati - LOOKING FOR ONE MORE PLAYER, QUICK GAME

[Arsis]

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY. FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is? Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison). Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

Honestly, if you and aj are town, I'm town. So... Like 40%.

[Graendals favourite]

What discussion was he interrupting? There was nothing pro town going on... At all. He might not have wanted to derail that.

I was certainly interested. Now, as to whether what was happening was pro-town or not, that is something that can be intepreted later (like now). Perhaps scumhunting was advancing, or the mafia's ploys were advancing? In the meantime one can consider whether someone was attempting to achieve something, or defend something.

[Arsis]

 

 

What discussion was he interrupting? There was nothing pro town going on... At all. He might not have wanted to derail that.

I was certainly interested. Now, as to whether what was happening was pro-town or not, that is something that can be intepreted later (like now). Perhaps scumhunting was advancing, or the mafia's ploys were advancing? In the meantime one can consider whether someone was attempting to achieve something, or defend something.

It was a bunch of people chasing their own tails and me doing my best #FULLDARTHE impression. What scum hunting was advanced. Who are your scum leans now?

[Graendals favourite]

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY.  FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is?  Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison).  Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

I think there's a fair chance, say 33% indeed, of reaching a succesful lynch. At least I agree with many of the nominees as reasonable tries. In general, one does usually end day 1 with a myslynch unless mafia make some obvious slip. Mafia often manage to influence the decision, so usually that chance is probably 15%.

[Yates]

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY.  FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is?  Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison).  Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

I think we have a good chance. Rule out the obv Town and roll from there.

 

The people I would not lynch are:

Myself

Clov

AJ

Key

Arsis

Des

TG

Dice

 

That leaves at least 2 scum in BFG, GF, Lenlo Hally

 

Plus, forcing people to choose a wagon gives us wagon analysis for tomorrow regardless of the flip.

[Arsis]

Gf/len/bfg/hallia in that order if we're going that route.

[Clovdyx]

 

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY.  FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is?  Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison).  Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

I think we have a good chance. Rule out the obv Town and roll from there.

 

The people I would not lynch are:

Myself

Clov

AJ

Key

Arsis

Des

TG

Dice

 

That leaves at least 2 scum in BFG, GF, Lenlo Hally

 

Plus, forcing people to choose a wagon gives us wagon analysis for tomorrow regardless of the flip.

 

 

I'm with you completely on the first four.  I'd throw TG in there, as well.  I feel good enough about Lenlo that I'm not willing to lynch him today, and I would not be thrilled about Despot.  My pool of lynchables right now is, in order from most willing to least willing, looks like this:

 

Arsis, GF, Dice, Hally, BFG, Des.

 

I figure there's two scum in there, with a third being possible but unlikely.  That gives me a 33%, or a 40% if we take Des off the table completely.  

[Clovdyx]

 

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY.  FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is?  Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison).  Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

I think there's a fair chance, say 33% indeed, of reaching a succesful lynch. At least I agree with many of the nominees as reasonable tries. In general, one does usually end day 1 with a myslynch unless mafia make some obvious slip. Mafia often manage to influence the decision, so usually that chance is probably 15%.

 

 

I know how it usually goes.  I'm not concerned with that.  I'm only concerned with this specific game, in this specific scenario.  How many clear townies do you have, and how many confirmed scum do you have?

[Arsis]

Clov. I'm town. But I'll go along with you guys. I understand how and why you guys would think I'm scum.

[Andrej]

I may need some time in my hyperbolic chamber to mull this over.

[Graendals favourite]

 

 

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY.  FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is?  Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison).  Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

I think there's a fair chance, say 33% indeed, of reaching a succesful lynch. At least I agree with many of the nominees as reasonable tries. In general, one does usually end day 1 with a myslynch unless mafia make some obvious slip. Mafia often manage to influence the decision, so usually that chance is probably 15%.

 

 

I know how it usually goes.  I'm not concerned with that.  I'm only concerned with this specific game, in this specific scenario.  How many clear townies do you have, and how many confirmed scum do you have?

 

I mean, as said unclearly, 33% chance now. I have just a few clears, and a couple of people I'm willing to vote more than the rest.

[Arsis]

 

 

 

 

 

 

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY. FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is? Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison). Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

I think there's a fair chance, say 33% indeed, of reaching a succesful lynch. At least I agree with many of the nominees as reasonable tries. In general, one does usually end day 1 with a myslynch unless mafia make some obvious slip. Mafia often manage to influence the decision, so usually that chance is probably 15%.

I know how it usually goes. I'm not concerned with that. I'm only concerned with this specific game, in this specific scenario. How many clear townies do you have, and how many confirmed scum do you have?

I mean, as said unclearly, 33% chance now. I have just a few clears, and a couple of people I'm willing to vote more than the rest.

Who are they?

[Clovdyx]

I may need some time in my hyperbolic chamber to mull this over.

 

I don't need a specific number.  Just an estimate.  Purely random, slightly better than random?  Significantly better?

[Graendals favourite]

 

 

 

 

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY. FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is? Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison). Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

I think there's a fair chance, say 33% indeed, of reaching a succesful lynch. At least I agree with many of the nominees as reasonable tries. In general, one does usually end day 1 with a myslynch unless mafia make some obvious slip. Mafia often manage to influence the decision, so usually that chance is probably 15%.

I know how it usually goes. I'm not concerned with that. I'm only concerned with this specific game, in this specific scenario. How many clear townies do you have, and how many confirmed scum do you have?

I mean, as said unclearly, 33% chance now. I have just a few clears, and a couple of people I'm willing to vote more than the rest.

Who are they?

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/90468-freemasons-vs-illuminati-game-thread/?p=3340389

[Arsis]

 

 

 

 

 

 

IF YOU ARE READING THIS POST, YOU ARE OBLIGATED TO REPLY. FAILURE TO DO SO WILL BE TAKEN AS A SCUMCLAIM.

 

EVERYBODY - What do you think the likeliness of lynching mafia today is? Randomly drawing a name out of a hat gives a 33% chance (I am not advocating for this method, I'm using it as a baseline for comparison). Given the way the day has unfolded, how likely do you all think a successful lynch is, right now?

I think there's a fair chance, say 33% indeed, of reaching a succesful lynch. At least I agree with many of the nominees as reasonable tries. In general, one does usually end day 1 with a myslynch unless mafia make some obvious slip. Mafia often manage to influence the decision, so usually that chance is probably 15%.

I know how it usually goes. I'm not concerned with that. I'm only concerned with this specific game, in this specific scenario. How many clear townies do you have, and how many confirmed scum do you have?

I mean, as said unclearly, 33% chance now. I have just a few clears, and a couple of people I'm willing to vote more than the rest.

Who are they?

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/90468-freemasons-vs-illuminati-game-thread/?p=3340389

That's not a lot of reads tbh. You were sitting back specifically to pay attention to people and that's all you got?

[Andrej]

I'd like some concise reads from GF.

 

I was a little bothered by his first post today. It read to me as very deep and intricate but I have a hard time discerning if it's genuine or a narrative. The conclusion I came to was that AJ/Clov town, Lenlo scummy, Arsis maybe scummy?

 

I'm not sure him saying aloud that he was purposely sitting back is indicative for him. His meta is mostly inactivity and I don't think I've ever seen him as scum although he's been pushed/lynched several times as Town for this. I think my unease is just how well he's posting right now. I don't remember seeing this sort of clarity ever and he seems very composed in his analysis. Which I guess typically would be considered a good thing at face value but in general I think scum are going to be more composed with their emotional spectrum.

 

From what I gathered in his next post he has AJ, Clov, Key and Yates as town.

 

Despot/Lenlo as mafia and Arsis as a maybe again.

 

Overall I don't think these are terrific but it's congruent with what he says about observing the past day's arguments as those 7 are generally the only ones talking during that span. I don't find his reason for finding Despot suspect to be great in terms of me agreeing, but I can potentially see from a townie POV how he might have found the random mention of his name odd.

 

TLDR - I have no idea.

 

Could be Town, could be Mafia. I might consider lynching elsewhere though, but I'm afraid that if he is mafia he'll be able to float while the rest of us rip into each other - which is likely what's been happening most of the game.

[Andrej]

 

I may need some time in my hyperbolic chamber to mull this over.

 

I don't need a specific number.  Just an estimate.  Purely random, slightly better than random?  Significantly better?

 

I was talking more about who I would want to lynch today - but in terms of our odds I think maybe slightly better than random.

 

If it turns out most/all of the active players are townies then I think we can engage in some group think and come to a consensus.

 

The clock is ticking though.

[Andrej]

Yates, are you sponging my Dice read?

[Andrej]

I'm gonna stare at the player list for a while until something comes to me.

[Andrej]

I'm wondering if Len is the way to go today.

 

He's been pretty much a consensus negative read for most this game, which in itself bothers me on principle, but then again maybe everyone else is just right and I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

I wouldn't lynch from within Clov, Key, Yates, Des personally. Dice as an outlier and I'm starting to come around on Arsis a bit now that he's getting into it.

 

Which leaves:

 

Hallia

GF

BFG

Lenlo

TG

 

In order I think I'd go Lenlo just to confirm his slot one way or the other, Hallia for no good reason except that she's just been gone while active elsewhere, GF for how hard I think it'll be to clear him, BFG and then TG. Those last two are probably interchangeable.

[Andrej]

andddd /work

 

I'll be back later. I think DL is tomorrow evening so hopefully we'll get some more voices.

 

[unvote]

 

[v]Lenlo[/v]

 

Votes will probably get people talking.

[Clovdyx]

[v]Dice[/v]

 

#YOLO.

 

andddd /work

 

I'll be back later. I think DL is tomorrow evening so hopefully we'll get some more voices.

 

[unvote]

 

[v]Lenlo[/v]

 

Votes will probably get people talking.

 

It's tomorrow morning.

[Arsis]

[v]Dice[/v]

 

#YOLO.

 

 

andddd /work

 

I'll be back later. I think DL is tomorrow evening so hopefully we'll get some more voices.

 

[unvote]

 

[v]Lenlo[/v]

 

Votes will probably get people talking.

It's tomorrow morning.

It's tomorrow morning already?

[Yates]

I really don't want to be wrong on this.

 

[v]BFG[/b]

[Yates]

[v]BFG[/v]