[Advanced] X-Men: Rise of Apocalypse - GAME OVER

[Nynaeve]

I'll admit that I've only played one game with Mish, so I'm not that aware of her playing style. To me it comes across like she's trying too hard to come off confused and perturbed by the direction this game is taking and for some reason I just don't buy her frustration. I'm also quite curious as to why she was unable to move her vote away from RTE.

 

She's been pushing for a Krak lynch most of the game. First she said it was because he was scummy on d1... then later she said it was because he was being quiet like in a different game where he was scum... I don't know. Now she's suddenly pro lynching verbal and just seeing what happens. There is also the odd part of her and Des both surviving the night. Why would scum pass out on removing two townies at the price of one?

 

Big question mark here.

 

 

 

Nyn

[Nynaeve]

 

Well my timing is known to be pretty bad in general. :P

 

But I don't see how this is the worst time. Everyone can claim to be a miller all they want and it won't matter much in the long run because we won't know if it's true or not. I threw this info in because, as usual, Salami was making wrong assumptions. And it's not the first time (nor last!).

 

 

 

Nyn

On phone yet. Hard to edit.

 

Nyn, you're smarter thah that. Try again.

 

 

*raises an eyebrow*

 

 

 

Nyn

[csarmi]

 

 

Well my timing is known to be pretty bad in general. :P

 

But I don't see how this is the worst time. Everyone can claim to be a miller all they want and it won't matter much in the long run because we won't know if it's true or not. I threw this info in because, as usual, Salami was making wrong assumptions. And it's not the first time (nor last!).

 

 

 

Nyn

On phone yet. Hard to edit.

 

Nyn, you're smarter thah that. Try again.

 

 

*raises an eyebrow*

 

 

 

Nyn

 

Your statement that the timing of the miller-type claim doesn't matter is wrong for some very trivial reasons.

The most trivial one is that by not claiming it you're making the cop waste a (useless) view on you, which is an anti-town move.

I know you for a smart player so I'm not sure what to think now as I found it unlikely that this would not cross your mind.

[csarmi]

I've arrived at work now, will check your cases, I just wanted to react on that fast while you'Re still here.

[csarmi]

I'll admit that I've only played one game with Mish, so I'm not that aware of her playing style. To me it comes across like she's trying too hard to come off confused and perturbed by the direction this game is taking and for some reason I just don't buy her frustration. I'm also quite curious as to why she was unable to move her vote away from RTE.

 

She's been pushing for a Krak lynch most of the game. First she said it was because he was scummy on d1... then later she said it was because he was being quiet like in a different game where he was scum... I don't know. Now she's suddenly pro lynching verbal and just seeing what happens. There is also the odd part of her and Des both surviving the night. Why would scum pass out on removing two townies at the price of one?

 

Big question mark here.

 

 

 

Nyn

If Mish/Despo are telling the truth about the vengeance kill, removing those two townies might just cost a scum. Like I suspect it happened to Ishy.

Seriously, I don't know what to do with Mish right now. Her play is confusing and I find her scummy now - but I tend to find her scummy and this seems to be her meta. What I do believe is that if we are to take that pair of lovers out, it's not the time yet.

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Nyn they survived the night because there was no night.

[Nynaeve]

 

 

 

Well my timing is known to be pretty bad in general. :P

 

But I don't see how this is the worst time. Everyone can claim to be a miller all they want and it won't matter much in the long run because we won't know if it's true or not. I threw this info in because, as usual, Salami was making wrong assumptions. And it's not the first time (nor last!).

 

 

 

Nyn

On phone yet. Hard to edit.

 

Nyn, you're smarter thah that. Try again.

 

 

*raises an eyebrow*

 

 

 

Nyn

 

Your statement that the timing of the miller-type claim doesn't matter is wrong for some very trivial reasons.

The most trivial one is that by not claiming it you're making the cop waste a (useless) view on you, which is an anti-town move.

I know you for a smart player so I'm not sure what to think now as I found it unlikely that this would not cross your mind.

 

 

Really? Well let me enlighten you, buddy. Since I think that viewings of a cop gives us zero info anyhow because it's obvious Verbal screwed up viewing results to screw with us... I don't see how it matters if a viewing is wasted on me or not. Further more, if Lily would have claimed that she viewed me as town I could have called her bluff. So yeah, there are reasons not to come forward with information. You might view it as me withholding information from town. Well, I view it as withholding information from scum :P

 

I don't really care if you disagree with that stance and think it's stupid. And i don't think you know the first thing of what does or doesn't cross my mind so piss off :P  I'm really getting tired of being in games you're in, I must admit. Lesson learned.

 

 

Nyn

[csarmi]

Clever trap.

 

But why the hostility?

[Nynaeve]

Because I don't like to be patronized. Just because you haven't thought of something doesn't mean it's not smart. So can it.

 

 

 

 

Nyn

[Nynaeve]

Nyn they survived the night because there was no night.

 

They survived night 2 because there was no night. Why did they survive night 1, though? Des came forward in the middle of the night, giving scum ample time to shoot either of them down. They didn't. They apparently shot dap, which then got paralya killed as well. Or the other way around (I can't recall which of them had 'died' and which had 'has been killed'). Either way, I very much doubt that at this point of the game scum knew that the person they were gunning down had a lover. So why would they go for one night kill than two?

 

Nyn

[Nynaeve]

If Mish/Despo are telling the truth about the vengeance kill, removing those two townies might just cost a scum. Like I suspect it happened to Ishy.

 

 

 

Or, they could put down 3 townies in one go. I'm still very surprised they didn't play those odds. If anything, it's better for them to lynch them when they're in their full strength rather than when their numbers dwindle and this move could possibly lose them the game. It doesn't add up to me.

 

 

 

Nyn

[csarmi]

Because I don't like to be patronized. Just because you haven't thought of something doesn't mean it's not smart. So can it.

 

 

 

 

Nyn

I'M not patronizing you, I'm calling you out on what I find strange or scummy.

[csarmi]

 

If Mish/Despo are telling the truth about the vengeance kill, removing those two townies might just cost a scum. Like I suspect it happened to Ishy.

 

Or, they could put down 3 townies in one go. I'm still very surprised they didn't play those odds. If anything, it's better for them to lynch them when they're in their full strength rather than when their numbers dwindle and this move could possibly lose them the game. It doesn't add up to me.

 

 

 

Nyn

 

I'm just speculating here, but vengeance kill sounds like something that would be carried out on the killer. For instance, my belief is that Ishy sent in a kill on Dap, Pral chose vengeance and that killed Ishy automatically.

[csarmi]

 

Nyn they survived the night because there was no night.

 

They survived night 2 because there was no night. Why did they survive night 1, though? Des came forward in the middle of the night, giving scum ample time to shoot either of them down. They didn't. They apparently shot dap, which then got paralya killed as well. Or the other way around (I can't recall which of them had 'died' and which had 'has been killed'). Either way, I very much doubt that at this point of the game scum knew that the person they were gunning down had a lover. So why would they go for one night kill than two?

 

Nyn

 

That's a good question actually. At that point, I don't think Maffia would know about the choice thing (unless there's at least one scum lover).

They might have speculated that they'd keep that constant WiFoM alive.

[michellem]

Well, if you do decide to lynch one of us today, Krak will be my vengeance kill. But I don't think I'll use that; if Des is lynched, I'd rather sacrifice myself for him; I don't like the idea of potentiall 3 townies dead by the end of the day.  I have no idea what Des'll do. But be aware that it's the part that ISN'T killed/lynched, that has the option. So lynch me, Des gets to decide, and vice versa. I honestly have no idea about Des' alignement. The way he came out at night, and the way he's gone quiet after that, just showing up every now and then to prod attention back to me, and after he revealed us, he hasn't given much comment on other things happening in the game at all, just tunneled on me, it makes me suspect he's mafia, but at the same time, I think he'd play smarter than that if he were mafia. I understand completly if you guys choose to go that way today; one of us gotta go sooner or later. I am town, but I don't know about Des. If you guys want to get rid of me, I suggest lynching him, and I will sacrifice myself. It's not something I'm saying to get sympathy or just making up to survive longer. I have to choose to either kill someone , and we both die, or sacrifice myself for him, keeping him alive. It removes the factor of the potential shot Des will take, and makes one of us survive to see another day, so you guys can figure out if he's town or not.

I have about an hour, hour and a half before I have to leave for the funeral; I'll keep an eye on whats going on here before I leave, but after that it will be 6-7 hours where I won't be available, so I'll probably not be back before deadline. Do what you guys feel be best; no hard feelings

[Nynaeve]

 

Because I don't like to be patronized. Just because you haven't thought of something doesn't mean it's not smart. So can it.

 

 

 

 

Nyn

I'M not patronizing you, I'm calling you out on what I find strange or scummy.

 

 

Then call me out on it. Don't give me the 'oh you usually play smart' crap.

 

 

 

Nyn

[Nynaeve]

lol  I don't know. The fact that Mish is trying to push for us to lynch Des first is making my skin crawl.

 

 

 

Nyn

[csarmi]

THe problem with lynching a lover and having the other part sacrificing for them is that it wouldn't clear that lover at all (why would it) and the one promising to sacrifice might just kill someone else.

 

Also - can you choose to vengekill anyone at all, Mish? Sounds like a strange mechanic to me. Where's the vengeance in that?

[hazelkrs1]

Woot! I finished my freaking reread. Holy Toledo.

 

Before I go posting my wot's, lemme chime in really quick with the pressing stuff:

 

I don't buy Lily's reveal at all. She preempted it with all kinds of "well we know that my results won't be that much help anyways", and I think the result"s" thing was a slip. I doubt she submitted the NA in time. Pretty sure she's mafia.

 

There's also something REALLY important that I saw regarding Mish and Lily, but I wanna save that for my case on her. Either way, Mish needs to swing today. She's trying to do EVERYTHING in her power to keep from being lynched instead of me, and throwing in heavy doses of AtE to boot. She is now saying that town should lynch me, and that she'll sacrifice herself instead of killing anyone, trying to look like the noble townie. The fact is, we can't trust her one lick, because if she got what she wanted and used the vengeance kill on a townie, we wouldn't exactly be able to do anything about it. The fact that she doesn't even mention this is extremely suspect as well. Really, she shouldn't have even thrown that out as an option, I think that will be the thing that finally gets her lynched.

 

Anyways, more to follow.

[Nynaeve]

Despo is the one that informed everyone of his connection to Mish. That gives him brownie points. I think the scum in that mix would be least motivated to bring this to light. Mish stated before that she thinks they're both town and yet when faced with the possibility of one of them getting lynched she kept pushing for Despo to be offed first. That's fishy (she did that twice that I remember, btw).

 

I still don't know what to make of her not being able to move her vote from RTE to dice. It reminds me of DPR's alt game where there were voting shenanigans that applied when scum voted for scum. It's not necessarily the mechanics in this case, but we should keep our eyes open on vote counts and try to find a pattern if this repeats itself.

 

We're really close to deadline (3 hours?). This duo needs to go. I rather it be now rather than along the road when there are few townies left and every townie counts. Leaving this unfinished business till the end will make us lose the game. And between Mish and Despo, I'm gonna go with Mish. Despo did come on strong with his points, but Mish has been acting scummy all the way.

 

 

Vote Mish

 

 

 

Nyn

[hazelkrs1]

Okay I tried putting this in a diff format to make it easier to read; it did take me a HELL of a lot longer tho, so I hope yall actually read this stuff in appreciation. I'm going to use hyperlinks instead of quotes, you can either take my word for what they said, or clicky on the link yourself to see the post in question. Gonna first cover the stuff I found during my reread, then do my case on Mish.
 
Stuff I found during reread:
 

Here Dap advocates lynching first the comod, then the mod. Which could have potentially cost two lynches for nothing. I'm pointing this out because I think Dap was scum and it's important to get out reads on the deadies we have so far.

This is pretty much the same as above

This one by Berf makes a big ordeal out of trying to make sure town focuses talk on lynching Verbal or not, and also kinda overplays the "helpful townie" angle. Important to remember stuff like this on replacements (altho I generally like Aemon's posts so far). Also worth noting that Nolder essentially started all the "lynch Verb?" talk.

Right here CS takes a serious intro from Wombat about setup talk, and "jokingly" suggests that the Four Horseman might not be players

And meh, you know what? I think I'd rather just c/p from my notes, instead of taking the time to make each link prettier. Hope yall can deal

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3034515 - CS suggests there might be bonus to lynching Nolder on wednesday in a Verbal game. Coulda been him joking, but it seemed more like him acting like he was joking while really testing the waters for that idea.

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3034571 - Dap says he doesn't even trust his own role pm. Kinda ridic. If you got a town pm, you'd pretty much take it for granted that you're town, since you wouldn't have a link to a QT or anything (excluding masons of course). A couple of people seemed to float this concept out there a few times, that we might not even be able to trust our own alignments. Ridiculous notion.

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3035159 - even tho CS had already typed out the I Love Verbal thing and was added to a list, he makes a show of bold-greening "beloved Verbal" as well. Over-buddying the mod.

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3035758 - Lenlo saying he doesn't want to lynch Verbal, but if we want to, go ahead. Do I have to point out why that's scummy?

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3035769 - Dap pushing harder for Verbal lynch

Not any direct link or quote, but Tina seems to be going with the flow a LOT this game...

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3038588 - complete logic fail on Dice's part, or him pushing a really scummy agenda: votes me after my reveal, saying we should lynch me first. If Mish is mafia, her teammates would know that she would have the Sacrifice/Revenge choice as well, so they would much rather lynch me instead of her

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3039483 - classic whyme fryme type post from Dice

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3039532 - ??? Lenlo's vote didn't count before, and he know the deadline was coming up... but still says he's gonna hold off on voting for now? Bleurgh.

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3039953 - Dice, at L-2, says he is a character that is often a bad guy yet is town, and says that he has an ability but DOESN'T ROLE REVEAL. Also again, no reasons for his vote, just that he think RTE is mafia. Ok. Pretty sure Dice and Dap were scum.

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3040204 - RTE making a point out of people ignoring the gold text on Ishy thing. This is before his name gets the gold text treatment, so it struck me that the mafia team might know more about the gold text, and RTE was trying to bring this up beforehand so that when his name got gold'd, people would look at that as semi-confirming him. Flavor-wise I don't see Bishop being scum, but I don't wanna get tied to flavor and this IS a bastard game after all

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3040207 - This kinda supports my comment above: "If another name appears in golden, then we can talk" Foreshadowing much? Could go into my Mish case but I figured I might as well cover it here since I just brought this up.

The only thing I don't like about this theory is RTE bringing it up himself would obviously connect him to the wifom later on, and would kinda spoil the whole point of bringing it up in the first place. If he was scum it would be MUCH smarter to have someone else try and focus town on the gold thing instead (like CS was) and for you to not really talk about it at all

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3040529 - Tina's reaction to RTE's reveal. Pings because mafia would be the ones most against RTE ending night phase early continuously, for all the reasons I mentioned previously.

Got a town read on Nyn for the most part, but worth mentioning that she agrees with Tina re: the phase ending thing

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3040882 - Back to that theory about RTE, Mish is the first person to point out that RTE's name is gold'd, after night ends early. Interesting...

 

 

Conclusions: CS pinged a good bit early on, but tbh even withstanding his scummy play, his interactions with a few people actually tells me he's prob town. Lenlo could be mafia, he's played a pretty poor game, and hasn't really contributed much ever since escaping that day 1 lynch. Dunno tho.

 

Def think Dap and Dice were scum. Dap was floating some really antitown concepts early on, and Dice would have revealed his role at L-2 if he was town. Interesting alternate theory I thought of tho regarding Dap: If the mafia team knew one of their teammates was Lovers with a townie, and knew about the sacrifice/vengeance ability, they could have easily chosen to kill the other Lover, knowing that they'd get a Vengeance kill, to get 2 townies for 1 scum. This makes even more sense if you consider that if Dap was the townie side, they could have worried that he would suspect Pray eventually anyways, plus Pray was newer so an ideal choice for a sacrifice. Still, I think it's more likely that Dap was scum, especially since Pray had that go town bah post.

 

Slightly wary of Tina, but there are much bigger fish to fry. Case on Mish inc.
 

[Leelou]

Vote Count

 

Mish (2) - Wombat, Nyn

Aemon (1) - Salami

Darthe (2) - Aemon, Lily

Lily (1) - Des

Krak (1) - Mish

 

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Deadline 3 hours, 2 minutes

[csarmi]

@Despo: what you can do is make a simple excel sheet create the links for you. I even made it create list items and such for my DieHard game. I can share the excel if you like.

 

 

Now on to reading it.

[hazelkrs1]

 

Okay. I guess it's time to reveal. I was hoping it wouldn't come to this, but y'all seem intent on lynching your cop. I don't know how much use I am, or how much it would hurt to kill me, being that I only get "appears as" results, but there ya go. 

 

 

I only have town results at this point. Do you want them or not? I'll wait until several of you have chimed in.

 

 

You have multiple results?  You managed to get you action and an answer before day 3 dawned ahead of its time?  

 

 

Btw I also wanted to point out that this was actually a strong towntell for me from Krak. I think he made a good catch here, and I think Lily slipped up. First towntell I've gotten from Krak this game. Now gonna blurt out my case on Mish really quick.

[hazelkrs1]

Case on Mish:

 

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3034119 - Nothing here

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3034678 - confuzzled "townie"

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3035148 - responds to my fos, brings up her own meta in self-defense

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3035190 - calls out Berf for believing that role pm's are truth, echoes Dap's earlier thinking

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3035363 - happy about CS referencing her Hunger Games, shows she is paying attention but not really commenting on most stuff

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3038722 - THIS is prob the biggest ping I found of hers on reread. Straight up rolefishing as hard as you can in the first part of the post! "CS, better come out and out an investigative role to save me, cause I don't know how to defend myself!" Also fearmongers about losing three townies

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3038940 - This is one of the few posts that gives me a bit of pause. Mish is right in that after her other miller claim failed so hard, she wouldn't be likely to use that as a false claim again. However, this situation is still somewhat unique (mafia would know about the wifom associated with the alignment/appear as thing), and her "miller" claim here could have just been her trying to prevent a cop viewing

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3039232 - defends CS and Lily (not sure why she chose to defend Lily), and says she's stuck between Lenlo and Krak. Lenlo was almost lynched day 1, and a lot of people were saying they could vote Lenlo again day 2, and Krak said he'd be gone PLUS had been fos'd by me, so she could have been trying to placate me somewhat by voting someone I also thought could be scum. Either way she doesn't actually say why either Lenlo or Krak SHOULD be lynched, just talks about her gut and says they had "scumtastic posts day 1". As town Mish uses logic and evidence a WHOLE lot more to case and lynch someone

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3039503 - jumps on RTE crazy quick for voting Dice, uses faulty reasoning, and contradicts herself because she also starts a new train 16 hours before the deadline, on someone who she says "just rose to the top of my scum list"... for 1 post, that wasn't really that scummy.

Something else I kinda missed while I was out for a couple of days - Mish's vote not counting towards the end of the deadline Day 2. This bit of info could really go both ways; it could have been scum trying to keep her from contributing to a lynch or trying to make her look worse, or it could have been that she was mafia and a teammate did it to make her look more town. As she isn't the most influential mafia player, I doubt they would nullify her vote to keep someone from getting lynched. And her vote not counting wouldn't make her look worse necessarily. So I'm leaning towards her being mafia and having a teammate do it to her to make her look more townie.

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3040880 - after night ends, Mish goes back to pushing the Verbal lynch again. Don't remember who said it, but lynching Verb could be the mafia team's only way of stopping w/e RTE is doing to them

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3041747 - Mish responds to something I said but misunderstands, I never said I thought Ishy was a Lover. In fact I thought that Dap and Pral were Lovers (red queen/white queen). Anyhoo the last bit of her post is essentially parroting exactly what I had postulated earlier about the Lovers dying cause one of them was killed, and one of them using a Vengeance kill (or Sacrifice bomb type move) in response.

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3041752 - Mish sows some wifom throughout this post, tries to steer discussion back to lynching Verbal, and Wombat covered this already but preemptively trying to respond to your biggest detractor can be somewhat scummy

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3041930 - after Wombat pressures Mish a bit for trying to derail the scumhunt, he asks for her take on the Lily situation (this is before Lily claims Cop). Mish says she doesn't have much of a read on her, that she struggles to read Lily most of the time. IMPORTANT NOTE: this is AFTER she earlier defended Lily as town!!!!!!! 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84857-advanced-x-men-rise-of-apocalypse-day-3/?p=3041944 - Immediately after she fence-sits on Lily/Darthe, saying both cases had interesting points. Also says we're losing... when we don't know that at all and could in fact be winning. Adds a healthy dose of AtE in there for good measure

 

 

The MAIN stuff I want to highlight is Mish's somewhat preemptive reveal about the alignment thing, there wasn't really any good reason to reveal that right there, unless she was trying to prevent a cop from viewing her, the post where she BLATANTLY rolefishes and pretty much asks CS to out himself if he viewed her in any way. Just extremely antitown right there (and remember the AtE), and lastly her flip flop on Lily: earlier in the game she defends Lily, which seemed a little peculiar to me since at the time Lily wasn't one of the only players in the spotlight or anything, but later when Wombat asks Mish about Lily, she says she doesn't have much of a read on her, and struggles to read her. Yeah. Big time ping.

 

Add to that her recent behavior in regards to trying to get me lynched first instead, and her offering to nobly sacrifice herself instead of vengeance killing when really thats just sweet words trying to appeal to more emotions on town's side, and I think the choice is quite clear.

 

Unvote, Vote Mish