[Mik’s Warp] - Solving the puzzle of the Trolloc attack on Lord Algarin’s Manor

[Mik]

@herid; I'm going to pick up where I left up, first.

 

I'll post a new post about that Jordan quote after this one.

He just closely followed a group who did know the way, because they had an Ogier who could read the Guidings.

- Fain has no control over Machin Shin at all.

And you know that how? Fain at least reached some accomodation with Machin Shin because Machin Shin let him go and didn't kill him. and you yourself suggested that Fain altered Machin Shin's behavior.

 

 

"Accomodation"? Machin Shin can't be reasoned with, or talked to. It's madness wrapped in a wind.

You don't strike a deal with it. A part of Fain scared Machin Shin the instant it touched him. They didn't struck a deal right there and then. Machin Shin took a part of what Fain was, like Machin Shin does with everyone else. Usually, Machin Shin just steals a lot more (like, all of the victim's mind/ soul). Fain doesn't gain control over Machin Shin by Machin Shin stealing a small part from Fain.

It just started behaving like Fain -by tracking Rand-, because it stole a small part of what Fain was; a Hound of the Shadow. Right when they touched, I guess Machin Shin sensed all the (different) evil inside Fain...and that scared it

So yeah, Machin Shin might be scared by Fain... and that might still require touching Fain first, but how does that indicate an 'accomodation', let alone some form of 'control'

Sure, Machin Shin stays clear of Fain. That doesn't mean Fain can keep Machin Shin from 'eating' an entire Trolloc army, that stretches out a few miles behind Fain. All Fain might be able to protect is a few hundred Trollocs

Not that Fain -or what's left of him- would care one bit about Trollocs...

- Machin Shin would find a huge army in minutes and devour it, but leave Fain alone.

again, you know that how? Machin Shin let Fain go. Fain might be able to influence it to let whoever is with him pass too.

 

 

How would Fain influence it...?

Machin Shin caught Fain -and given that Machin Shin acts a bit like Fain indicates it succeeded, at least in part- and then Machin Shin just fled. Machin Shin didn't let Fain go, because Fain told it too. Or because Fain now has control over Machin Shin. So sure, Machin Shin is scared when touching Fain and will retreat from him.... and that will enable Fain to bring some people with him. That doesn't mean Fain can bring an army of one-hundred-thousand Trollocs through the Ways. Machin Shin would have a field day! It would leave Fain with an 'army' of -say- a hundred Trollocs that huddle around Fain.

 

- Fain has no control over Shadowspawn at all. It takes him weeks to break a single Myrddraal.

Fain has been growing in power over time. That much is crystal clear. What took him a long time in TGH might take far less time in KoD. Also, he created illusions of Toravl and Gedwyn in Far Maddin. Mashadar killed Sammael so it's possible that he can create an illusion of Sammael and his Chosen mark too in which case the Myrddraal would obey him.

 

 

I'm not denying Fain/ Mordeth isn't growing in power at all. I'm denying he has the ability to control Machin Shin. I'm denying he can command a hundred Myrddraal and 100000 (!) Trollocs

In fact, the further "Fain" grows in power, the more we see how he destroys Shadowspawn. Destruction of a Myrddraal by touch doesn't indicate Fain could also command it. Breaking one required heaps of time and energy. Instantly killing a Myrddraal and instantly killing a group of dead Trollocs and commanding (just) the Trolloc corpses =/= commanding 100 Myrddraal and 100000 Trollocs

Mashadar is born from the evil Mordeth brought to Aridhol. Mashadar ensnared Mordeth. They are not the same. Mashadar killed Sammael. Mashadar doesn't have Mordeth's phone-number.

 

- Fain has no way to visit all those different tribes in a few days –or any one tribe for that matter-, because he’s on foot without any fast way of travelling.

we don't know anything about the positioning of Trollocs in the Blight at the moment. They could be in the same place. Moridin was getting them ready to attack so he could have moved them near the Waygates. Whoever commandeered them for the attack on Algarin's manor had to have those Trollocs near the Waygates to begin with. Else their plan would have been quickly unmasked, whoever it was behind it.

 

 

We know there are more then 15 tribes. We know that it was a surprise to an experienced Blight-visitor / Warder that seven tribes would even work together.

Even if -and this is a big if, because nothing supports what you say- atleast 15 Trolloc tribes are at the same place, waiting. How would Fain know where to find them?

- Fain can’t move as fast as a Shadowspawn army…he would slow them down!

hah? Fain moved with Trollocs and Myrdraal that he did command just fine.

 

 

Mind scetching for me how you envision Fain doing what I scetched for Demandred in my theory? Doesn't need to be a big theory. Just from the moment Fain finds out he has the needed time to organise the attack to the actual attack. I'm really curious how you'd make it work.

Seriously herid. Thinking Fain is the culprit is beyond silly if you ask me.

seriously, if you offer a good argument against it I'll listen. You haven't so far. I'm not claiming that it was Fain for certain. I have not made up my mind on the matter. But this is a lot more plausible than what you are suggesting.

 

 

Let me just ask good questions:

- Where did Fain find his 100 Myrddraal and how did he know up front he'd find them there and in time to organise the attack?

- Where did Fain find his 100000 Trollocs and how did he know up front he'd find them there and in time to organise the attack?

- Where did Fain even learn that Rand would stay put for the time Fain needed to organise the attack?

- How on earth -in Fain's growing madness- would Fain come up with a plan that required so much organisation, with Fain being the personification of madness and blind hatred?

- Why would Fain have Shadowspawn (Fain hates the DO) kill the one person he himself wants to kill so bad, that he'd skin his own Whitecloaks if they had succeeded in killing Rand?

- Why would Fain kill the three Darkfriend Asha'man in Far Madding and tell Kisman that 'Rand belongs to him', when all Fain would want to have Rand dead and Fain released from his craving need to track Rand?

- Why would Fain say "I want him to know who is killing him" to himself in WH and think "Al'Thor would die. By his hand." in TOM, only to try to have Rand killed in KoD by a mysterious Trolloc / Myrddraal army?

 

The absence of decent answers to any of these are my good arguments, I think. ;)

 

 

 

The ones attacking Caemlyn now spent a LOT of time in the Ways which suggests that they may have been moved in relatively small groups to somewhere close to Caemlyn (say, Murandy) before being sent to Caemlyn. So there need not exist a method to control Machin Shin at all. A lot of Trollocs might be lost in transit but their numbers seem pretty much unlimited and the Forsaken would not care about losing some. And if the idea that Machin Chin now follows Rand the way Fain does is correct (I rather like it) then this would not be an issue at all as Rand is nowhere near Caemlyn at the moment.

Machin Shin only waits for Rand at the closest Waygate when it senses noone to hunt inside the Ways. Else Faille, Perrin, Loial and the Aiel could never have been able to use the Waygate near Tear (the city) back when Rand plunges Callandor into the Heart of the Stone.

 

 

Good point about Tear. I did not think of it. Still, we don't know what is really going on with Machin Shin. Fain is changing. Whatever he did to Machin Shin might be changing too.

 

 

The best answer is that the one who organised the attack on Caemlyn knows a way of how to control Machin Shin. Something we saw hints of as far back as TGH (per Liandrin).

Demandred using the Bowl of the Winds would fit just nicely I think.

 

Then a few other assumptions as well as going against character, he just killed people that were trying to kill Rand after all.

That's one of the better arguments against Fain. I wouldn't rule him out completely based on just this though. Also, I would consider the character argument to go somewhat against Demandred too.

The Algarin manor attack doesn't really fit his MO. It's rather blunt and direct. Demandred is supposed to be a brilliant and devious military planner after all. There is no finesse in throwing a large number of Trollocs at Rand and hoping that would be enough. It's a one punch and you are done move. In my opinion, in terms of MO the attack fits Taim better than either Demandred or Fain.

 

 

"Blunt and direct"? I've seen the argument before, and it's just not true as I've shown in the theory, it fits Demandred's motive, means and opportunity really well. As if there is 'finesse' in sending a few Asha'man...tsk. Demandred wants Rand dead...and failing that, captive. This attack would have killed Rand, if it wasn't for Verin timing the attack. And failing killing Rand, it helped with Rand walking into what Rand himself considered a trap.

 

It took a lot of good and decent planning to organise all the tribes and get them moving and taking the right routes in the Ways. It required a way to control Machin Shin -one no one in the whole fandom has ever come up with up until now- and if this theory is correct, Demandred pulled off controlling Machin Shin. What you consider 'blunt and direct', I think is a neat, well planned and organised attack, that failed only, because the Shadow was thwarted from within its own ranks by a brave Aes Sedai from the Brown Ajah.

 

I literally just made an account for the purpose of replying to the original post. I love your theory, and though there may be a couple of things not quite right, I think it is generally very accurate. What is great/terrible about WoT are the countless situations like these where we will probably never actually know the answer. 25 days!!!

Haha. Thanks! Oh man... I just can't wait! (and at the same time, I dread to read AMoL!)

I suppose that's always the problem with this situation, too many possibilities and very little to go on.

 

The last many page thread I don't think we could get very many people to agree on what the attack was supposed to accomplish, what actually was accomplished (and why/not) and who could possibly benefit from those. And it always gets side-tracked into Fain lol.

RAFO in 22 (!!!!) days! *cackles like a Fain*

 

Nice theory. Do you have any idea what it was that made Demandred want to kill Rand personally? It happens in KoD, I believe. The first time we see this behavior is in tGS Prologue. It might even be connected to this attack.

Thanks

 

It might be because Demandred's back-up plan requires Demandred to kill Rand personally or else he wouldn't have any good plan left…:

We know that through the Bargain Rand (had) made with Harine, the Mistress of the Ships can summon the Dragon and he has to come.

Zaida (a Darkfriend, I think) as the new Mistress of the Ships will summon Rand as agreed in that Bargain and Demandred will be there as Amel, Zaida's Swordmaster (now Master of the Blades; the Asha'm'hael) to kill Rand. It's Demandred's hidden ace up his sleeve. He can have channelers waiting for Rand. I'm hoping that a certain (new) blue, two-tiered parasol will spark a memory of Verin's advice to 'be wary' to save Rand... *grins*

 

Demandred knows the Day of Return of his Master is almost upon them and he wants to be the one to kill the Dragon and stand 'but half a step' below the Great Lord. Little does he know what it truly means to be Nae'bliss; to be exactly 'half' a step below the Great Lord.

 

 

Cheers,

Mik

 

(P.S: D'mount is seeeriously messed up since the DDOS attack and the tweaks to fix it)

[Suttree]

Mik, good God mate clean that up. Is that what a fade thinks like? ;)

[Mik]

Ok. That pisses me off.

Just spend over two hours on that post. *whines*

 

The Shadow within!

I think the forum is secretly being Balefired.

 

(previous post = fixed.. sortoff) *rolls eyes*

[TheSociopath]

I realize that this is 5 years late, but how would you edit this grand theory with the knowledge that Demandred is with the Sharans?

[Mik]

I realize that this is 5 years late, but how would you edit this grand theory with the knowledge that Demandred is with the Sharans?

 

I wouldn't change it one bit. Neither would I change my theory about Demandred hiding as Amel (see quote from first post:)

 

 

 

At this point it becomes relevant to be aware of another theory of mine, where I explain why I think Demandred is ‘hiding’ among the Sea Folk and that he’s their current Master of the Blades, Amel (theory here: Demandred is Amel )

It is relevant, because of how this theory deals with by far the biggest obstacle for any theory regarding the Manor House Attack; Machin Chin and it’s specific behaviour.

 

 

I think what this theory and the one about Demandred being Amel prove, is that it makes mince meat out of RJ envisioning Demandred as Bao with the Sharans. BS made that all up and in doing so, BS nullified RJ's whole Sea Folk story (the Bargains, the Bowl, Zaida's odd behaviour, the positioning of all the Sea Folk ships in ports, their stance towards the 'shorebound'). RJ would have made the middle books *BETTER* in hindsight by how he hid all of this right under our noses for all these years. RJ would have made a great story of having Demandred lure Rand into a trap by using the Bargain to summon the Coramoor to the Mistress of the Ships at the worst possible time for the Light (like right before the meeting @ Field of Merrilor)

 

Brandon's Demandred (placement, history & behaviour) was a JOKE. It was BS.

 

To me, this is just one of many, many signs of how little RJ actually left behind to finish AMoL....and of how much BS fucked up WoT.

 

Finishing WoT was never truly about how -and if- RJ wanted it to finish...it was about TOR making a few axtra bucks & getting a new writer popular.

[Sabio]

Why would he want to hide amongst the sea folk?  They have no army and only their channelers helped as the last battle.  Of al lthe groups about they would of been the most usless to hide with, especially after losing their islands to the Seanchean.  So being with the sea folk he would of controlled ships.  Shara makes sense, and many have guessed for a long time that was where he was hiding.  Dem just doesn't want Rand dead, he wants to be the one to kill him, to beat him.  Not have him die to a Trolloc attack.  Lanfear and Moghi both had reason to hide their actions and both had someone at the manor house they hated beyond anything.

 

I still think moghi did the attack o nthe manor, and it may of been to get Nyn.  Her explaining how good she was at impersonating the other chosen at the end of the last book imo was a clue from Brandon.

[Mik]

Why would he want to hide amongst the sea folk?  They have no army and only their channelers....

You need a re-read.

 

Just the Sea Folk docked at Tear outnumbered the people in Tear. All the southern ports of Randland were packed with Sea Folk vessels. Those cities were filled with Sea Folk. No army? It was RIGHT there....on the side of the continent where noone expected an attack. Demandred -as their Master of the Blades- could have (ab)used the Sea Folk prophecy much like Asmodean did with the Shaido to have a people that was described by RJ as 'strictly hierarchal and obidient' to attack (the Stone of) Tear, the Altarans and the Seanchan held ports for killing their former Mistress of the Ships and her Master of the Blades (and disrespecting their corpses by impaling their heads on pikes) alone.

 

The Sea Folk IS an army; we learn of a Sea Folk ship that went toe to toe with a Seanchan ship when it attacked and the Sea Folk WON. They have hundreds and hundreds of capable Channelers (I think RJ once said 'about a thousand'..IIRC). Note the Weaving of the Winds that we see a Windfinder weave in TSR.....now immagine a thunderstorm with those thick cables, made by linked Windfinders in their hundreds. Now immagine Demandred with the Bowl of Winds the Sea Folk Bargained for....and a Circle. Even IF the Sea Folk were a distraction abused for a limited ammount of time by Demandred (say...a few days...untill they come to their senses), they could have packed a mighty punch.

 

But whatever.

 

Of all the groups about they would of been the most usless to hide with, especially after losing their islands to the Seanchean.

Again proves you need a re-read; the Sea Folk were a sea-bound people; their islands were not inhabited by them. They protected the Amayar living there. And you see the responce of the First Twelve when they were given news of their mass suicide; utter shock and horror. Something easily abused by Demandred, who couldn't care less about those Sea Folk islands; he had his army with him in all the ports.

[Sabio]

The sea folks are not an army.  Their islands were quickly taken, and Coine even said she would never go near a ship with ribbed sails again.  Fighting at sea is not the same as trying to fight like a land army.  As we saw in the last battle, only the sea folk channelers took part.  They didn't form up their ship folks to fight on land.  They would of made a horrible army.  

[Mik]

The sea folks are not an army.  Their islands were quickly taken, and Coine even said she would never go near a ship with ribbed sails again.  Fighting at sea is not the same as trying to fight like a land army.  As we saw in the last battle, only the sea folk channelers took part.  They didn't form up their ship folks to fight on land.  They would of made a horrible army.

Ok. If you say so.

 

I'm sure you're right about Moghedien too.

 

Have a good day

[Sabio]

Thank you, you too.