Mat has a fair bit of travelling to do...

[b3arz3rg3r]

Agree with most of it aside from Elayne not having power to enforce anything. That's is abolutely not true.

 

I'm really curious how Elayne could have enforced anything if Perrin had said he was going to secede along with the entire Two Rivers or simply continued to ignore her?

Perrin on his own has some 70k soldiers in his army I believe plus he's the liegelord of Alliandre and by marriage close kin to the throne of Saldaea. How many of her forces could Elayne have mobilized against the Two Rivers? I don't think the other houses would have willingly marched against that sort of army for a piece of land most of them hadn't even heard of or known that it was in Andor. Especially considering all the strains Elayne knew she was going to have to work under. Preparing for TG, solidifying the link between Andor and Cairhien, keeping on guard against the Seanchan.

That rules pretty much war out of the equation. She couldn't do a trade embargo either. For one the Two Rivers doesn't depend on trade from Andor and with the recent influx of people it's only a matter of time until someone decides to built a road to Jehannah or builts a proper harbor on the Manetherendrelle. Besides she doesn't have the political clout to pull off isolating Perrin.

So war is out and trade is out what other tools would Elayne have at her disposal?

 

Morgase was speaking the absolute truth when she warned Elayne that she could break Andor on the Two Rivers. Perrin could have easily presented Elayne with a fait accompli and she couldn't have done anything other than swallowing it because it just wasn't worth the risk.

Edited December 12, 2012 by b3arz3rg3r

[Suttree]

WOT Military Round Up

 

Perrin

It consists of three to four thousand Two Rivers bowmen (Knife of Dreams, The Last Knot), close to nine hundred Mayener Winged Guards (The Path of Daggers, A Simple Country Woman), and close to a thousand Ghealdan Lancers (Winter’s Heart, The Scent of Madness). There were some Aiel Maidens, six Wise Ones, three Aes Sedai, and two Asha’man with Perrin. At least some of the Aiel with Perrin apparently left this group to join the clans in Arad Doman (and are probably now in Tear). A hundred thousand refugees are also with Perrin.

So basically Perrin has a small armed force amounting to almost 2,000 troops, a force of 4000 fairly well trained 2Rs peasants, and a 100,000 rabble made up of men, women and children of which we have no idea how many can fight.

 

Meanwhile Andor has the single largest army of any Westland nation at 150,000 troops which have been pulled together and is ready to go:

 

The state of the Succession and the siege of Caemlyn triggered most Andoran houses into mobilizing their forces, thus leading to a highly militarized state. Therefore Elayne’s success in claiming the throne has in effect unified most of Andor’s strength, and the army is prepared for action.

In addition she has the channeler advantage for troop and supply movement. She has quite a bit at her disposal to enforce things. Edited December 12, 2012 by Suttree

[b3arz3rg3r]

WOT Military Round Up

 

Perrin

It consists of three to four thousand Two Rivers bowmen (Knife of Dreams, The Last Knot), close to nine hundred Mayener Winged Guards (The Path of Daggers, A Simple Country Woman), and close to a thousand Ghealdan Lancers (Winter’s Heart, The Scent of Madness). There were some Aiel Maidens, six Wise Ones, three Aes Sedai, and two Asha’man with Perrin. At least some of the Aiel with Perrin apparently left this group to join the clans in Arad Doman (and are probably now in Tear). A hundred thousand refugees are also with Perrin.

So basically Perrin has a small armed force amounting to almost 2,000 troops, a force of 4000 fairly well trained 2Rs peasants, and a 100,000 rabble made up of men, women and children of which we have no idea how many can fight.

 

Meanwhile Andor has the single largest army of any Westland nation at 150,000 troops which have been pulled together and is ready to go:

 

The state of the Succession and the siege of Caemlyn triggered most Andoran houses into mobilizing their forces, thus leading to a highly militarized state. Therefore Elayne’s success in claiming the throne has in effect unified most of Andor’s strength, and the army is prepared for action.

In addition she has the channeler advantage for troop and supply movement. She has quite a bit at her disposal to enforce things.

 

 

Your data is dated and you misinterpret what you have. All that stuff refers to KoD, TPOD and WH. You can ignore it in favor of what we saw in TGS and TOM. Perrin send away most of the infirm and kept only those who were able to fight, many who were mercenaries and those have been learning at a unbelievably fast pace courtesy to his ta'veren effect. He also has channellers in his army who can travel so Elayne has no advantage in this regard. Elayne's 150k consist out of 120k+ who are as bad or worse than the ones Perrin has picked up and they were gathered for the purpose of facing the DO not the 2 Rivers. She can't afford to use that army against the Two Rivers and she knows it. If she chose to fight at best half her army would survive, since Perrin seems to be quite good at battles plus he has the advantage of being ta'veren. It's unlikely the Pattern would allow him to lose.

 

After TG what is left of Elayne's army will disperse again while I think it's reasonable to assume that most of Perrin's survivors will end up in the Two Rivers as new settlers, because a ta'veren can't walk into a forest without stumbling over a pot of gold. Perrin will probably come out even stronger after TG than he is now. And when Elayne tries to call her army together again really how likely is it that the Houses would be willing to lose so many of their troops to the Two Rivers when there is no gain for them. Elayne herself has remarked several times how independant Andorans can be, I would expect most of the Houses to effectively flip Elayne the bird if she demanded of them to invade the 2 Rivers and likely lose half of their armsmen for free.

Edited December 12, 2012 by b3arz3rg3r

[joeron bigelow]

@Herid - it's possible someone remembers that Mat is arguably the best General they have and go to look for him early.  It may be a bit of an unnecessary complication, but it would help seal his importance among the gathered armies.  Or more likely they go to pick him up at noon :)

 

 

just curious - I'm not debating that Mat is a good General, but besides the Band, and whoever may have encountered the Band - knows this tidbit of knowledge?

 

Only Bashere knows who Mat is....

 

Byrne does not, or did I miss that section of whatever book?  Is Bashere going to convince everyone?  I suppose Bashere is the leader of Rands immediate forces, but the other Borderlanders have no clue.  

[Suttree]

I've misinterpeted? No idea why you think that article is old as its been revised after the latest releases. Elayne has the troops, she has the channelers, if you disagree I'm going to need more than opinion, please quote where you get your info.

Elaynes army is solid troops from the noble houses supplemented by half trained levies. That is the army that Andor can always pull together. If she calls the banners they come(especially for something like a province breaking away), thats how it works. You cant just argue she would lose because they wont fight, or that she might lose more during TG, that's absurd. In fact the "only gathered for TG" argument works far more for Perrin's troops than it does for Andor's national army.

Perrin has well trained peasants supplemented by peasants with little to no training and again he likely has less than half the troops. Ill be happy to listen if you can start citing quotes to back your opinion. For the sake of argument, say even best case scenario with your guess at his numbers is true, Elayne still half again the larger force and more channelers. That hardly leaves her with no way to enforce things as you originally stated. I view it in a similar manner as the Andoran nobles threatening Rand if he didn't leave the country. Would Rand have won eventually? Yes of course but it would have been a tough victory. The situation here is slightly similar. That is however far from not being able to enforce her power as Queen.

 

As Mr Ares said...

 

Andor's army is a core of trained soldiers supplemented by peasant levies. Perrin's army is a core of peasant levies supplemented by further peasant levies. Elayne also has more soldiers and levies.

I find it hilarious that you try to present them as some crack fighting force now when they are for the most part refugees with very limited training.

Edited December 13, 2012 by Suttree

[joeron bigelow]

Can someone tell me where are all the guys that Bashere took from the black tower  - the ones that couldnt learn to channel?

[Aredeis]

@Suttree, I see very little difference between not being able to enforce something without massive losses and not being able to enforce it at all in this situation.  I suppose technically you are right, she could have enforced it, but doing so would have likely crippled her country for the LB and kept her from even being able to think about moving on Cairhein. She couldnt afford the cost of enforcing it, ergo for all intents and purposes she can't enforce it.

[Aredeis]

And that's without even considering Perrin getting reinforcements from Rand and/or the Aiel.

[Suttree]

@Suttree, I see very little difference between not being able to enforce something without massive losses and not being able to enforce it at all in this situation. I suppose technically you are right, she could have enforced it, but doing so would have likely crippled her country for the LB and kept her from even being able to think about moving on Cairhein. She couldnt afford the cost of enforcing it, ergo for all intents and purposes she can't enforce it.

Not at all true. We know Perrin, it's a war he knows he could not win and he isn't one to sacrifice his people in that manner. The threat was real enough if the 2Rs was actually trying to break away and the possibility was enough. Again the original point made was Elayne had no leverage in those negotiations which is patently false.

Edited December 13, 2012 by Suttree

[Aredeis]

 

@Suttree, I see very little difference between not being able to enforce something without massive losses and not being able to enforce it at all in this situation. I suppose technically you are right, she could have enforced it, but doing so would have likely crippled her country for the LB and kept her from even being able to think about moving on Cairhein. She couldnt afford the cost of enforcing it, ergo for all intents and purposes she can't enforce it.

Not at all true. We know Perrin, it's a war he knows he could not win and he isn't one to sacrifice his people in that manner. The threat was real enough if the 2Rs was actually trying to break away.

 

Well yes, I think we would both agree that neither of them would actually go through with it.  At least I can't see Elayne letting it get to war any more than Perrin.  Just because of Rand if nothing else.  Would she really have her army kill Rand's friends and neighbors from childhood, I doubt it.  So doesnt that mean that she wasnt going to enforce anything, even if she could have?

[Suttree]

It's politics and she played her hand very well in that meeting.

[Aredeis]

BTW, long time lurker here and other places, all the way back to the rec.arts/usenet days.  I normally like the way you think but I'm not following you on this one.  I think Elayne's hands are pretty well tied by the circumstances.

[Aredeis]

sry double post

Edited December 13, 2012 by Aredeis

[Aredeis]

It's politics and she played her hand very well in that meeting.

That's a different story altogether.  I totally agree, Perrin didnt call her bluff so she won.  I'm only saying that it was indeed a bluff on her part.

[Suttree]

 

It's politics and she played her hand very well in that meeting.

That's a different story altogether.  I totally agree, Perrin didnt call her bluff so she won.  I'm only saying that it was indeed a bluff on her part.

 

To clarify when I said slightly similar to Rand/Andor I was referring mostly to the trade off in what was gained with the 2Rs by not fighting. Not because her country that has channelers, is better trained and more than doubles Perrin's numbers would be crippled by putting down an uprising. It would cost, but the cost would certainly be worth it had Perrin been serious about breaking away. There is not a noble in Andor who would allow a piece of land like that to break away, what kind of precedent does that set? The country would destabilize rather quickly if chunks of land just started ceding with no repercussions. Regardless b3arz argument seemingly was that Perrin would just flat out win. We know that is not remotely close to being true.

 

As an aside, glad to see you sign up and start posting Aredeis. Welcome to DM!

Edited December 13, 2012 by Suttree

[Aredeis]

What about the part where she risks putting herself against Rand and the Aiel.  She could certainly overwhelm what Perrin can field at Caemlyn at that moment, but could she so easily overwhelm the forces he would be potentially able to call upon?  Not that any of that had a snowballs chance in hell of actually happening in the books.

Edited December 13, 2012 by Aredeis

[Suttree]

As a Queen who needs to look to the best interests of her nation Elayne was in the right(Perrin was marching around with an Army openly declaring Manetheren while the 2Rs picked up arms and refused entry to Andoran officials and sent the message of "No Andoran taxes, Tai-shai Manetheren" back) and if Perrin decided to revolt and pull away from Andor there is no reason for the majority of those refugees in his force to support him nor for the Aiel nation to do so. Further why would Rand move against the mother of his children in this instance. I find it far more likely he would ask Perrin what the hell he was thinking.

Edited December 13, 2012 by Suttree

[Aredeis]

Perhaps.  Likely if it got that far Rand would ask them both that.  He couldnt really have the mother of his children on one side and his dad and one of his best friends on the other,  at war with each other.  All totally hypothetical but a fun conversation to pass the time anyway.  I'm jonesing hard for aMoL.

 

Hmm, actually, is Tam still with Perrin at that time, I can't recall without getting the book out.  He's back with Perrin in aMoL ch1 isnt he? Or do we even see him there?

[Aredeis]

Would not argue about her being in the right either, at least in her role as queen. Though as Perrin and Galad have both pointed out, at this stage in the game, the good guys can't afford to be killing each other for any reasons.  No one would be in the right if the 2R and Andor went to war, they'd both be playing into the DO's plans.

[b3arz3rg3r]

I've misinterpeted? No idea why you think that article is old as its been revised after the latest releases. Elayne has the troops, she has the channelers, if you disagree I'm going to need more than opinion, please quote where you get your info.

 

Elaynes army is solid troops from the noble houses supplemented by half trained levies. That is the army that Andor can always pull together. If she calls the banners they come(especially for something like a province breaking away), thats how it works. You cant just argue she would lose because they wont fight, or that she might lose more during TG, that's absurd. In fact the "only gathered for TG" argument works far more for Perrin's troops than it does for Andor's national army.

 

Perrin has well trained peasants supplemented by peasants with little to no training and again he likely has less than half the troops. Ill be happy to listen if you can start citing quotes to back your opinion. For the sake of argument, say even best case scenario with your guess at his numbers is true, Elayne still half again the larger force and more channelers. That hardly leaves her with no way to enforce things as you originally stated. I view it in a similar manner as the Andoran nobles threatening Rand if he didn't leave the country. Would Rand have won eventually? Yes of course but it would have been a tough victory. The situation here is slightly similar. That is however far from not being able to enforce her power as Queen.

 

As Mr Ares said...

 

Andor's army is a core of trained soldiers supplemented by peasant levies. Perrin's army is a core of peasant levies supplemented by further peasant levies. Elayne also has more soldiers and levies.

I find it hilarious that you try to present them as some crack fighting force now when they are for the most part refugees with very limited training.

I don't disagree about the number of Elayne's troops or her channellers, but as I said Perrin has channellers as well so both armies can Travel. And since none of Elayne's channellers either can or will involve themselves in such a petty war their superiority in numbers won't have any effect on the actual battlefield. I for one don't see the Kin involve themselves in such a dispute. Why would they fight? Perrin isn't attacking them or even Andor, he is no darkfriend and it's not as if he was likely to order his channellers to fight.

 

As for Elayne's solid troops your numbers are ridiculous. There are somewhere around 10k to 20k Queen's guards according to the numbers I've seen in the fandom and in the books and perhaps as many capable armsmen. Don't forget that before Rand left the 2R 5k was considered quite a large army. The levies as you call them are just drafted peasants who were given a spear or a bow and that's basically it. They make up the bulk of the 150k. And unlike Perrin's peasants they don't have accellerated training due to the ta'veren effect so probably they are worse than Perrin's. I don't make them out to be crack troops. I say Perrin's rabble is better than Elayne's rabble. Oh and by the way many of Perrin's troops are also former armsmen and mercenaries which roughly puts those on the same level as Elayne's armsmen and mercenaries.

 

What I find hilarious is your lack of reading comprehension. I quite explicitly name quite a few reasons why Elayne can't afford to go to war with Perrin and all you focus on is Elayne's numerical superiority:

1. The fact that to overcome Perrin would cost her half her force atleast. If she could at all since the Pattern (you remember what that is?) pretty much cheats when it comes to ta'veren
2. the fact that the Houses who make up more than half of her army wouldn't support her in such a war, because there would be no gain to them only losses
3. the fact that with Perrin being the liegelord to Ghealdan and closely related to Saldaea through marriage the conflict would likely escalate
4. the fact that the bonds between Andor and Cairhien are still unstable
5. the fact that Elayne can't just lose half her army when the Seanchan are waiting to pounce on any opportunity
6. and the fact that Elayne can't fight Perrin when the Last Battle is in the offing

Ok, have it your way if Elayne was a complete and utter moron she could have defeated Perrin. Well, that victory would have destroyed Andor within a year probably, but yeah she would have enforced that the 2R didn't secede. Man, what a genius that Elayne would have been.

[Suttree]

What I find hilarious is your lack of reading comprehension.

What do you want from me, I went to UCSB...I didn't go to Cal for God's sake!

I quite explicitly name quite a few reasons why Elayne can't afford to go to war with Perrin and all you focus on is Elayne's numerical superiority:The fact that to overcome Perrin would cost her half her force atleast. If she could at all since the Pattern (you remember what that is?) pretty much cheats when it comes to ta'veren

I'm focusing on numbers we know to be true, you're focusing on pulling numbers out of your ass. I read the reasons, I even disputed some of them which you seem to have ignored. I simply don't find any of it compelling.

 

• the fact that the Houses who make up more than half of her army wouldn't support her in such a war, because there would be no gain to them only losses

This is perhaps the most nonsensical argument I have seen in some time at DM. The High Houses are going to watch a province revolt and do nothing? Yes because that would bode so well for any of their own lands that might be discontent once word reached them. If someone raises the banner of Manetheren, marches an army around the land and then refuses entry to Andoran officials sending the message of "“The lands of Lord Perrin Goldeneyes refuse your Andoran taxes. Tai'shar Manetheren!" and then takes yet a last step to revolt the High Seats are going to stand by and do nothing?!?! That is the last thing in the world that would happen given what we know of Andoran culture.

 

• the fact that with Perrin being the liegelord to Ghealdan and closely related to Saldaea through marriage the conflict would likely escalate

What does Ghealdean have to offer at this juncture? Further your telling me Saldea is going to pursue a war with Andor because a province wanted to revolt from it's rightful ruler? Not convincing in the slightest.

 

• the fact that the bonds between Andor and Cairhien are still unstable

It sure as hell isn't if peasants start breaking away, in fact nothing would unify them faster.

 

• the fact that Elayne can't just lose half her army when the Seanchan are waiting to pounce on any opportunity

Again stop fabricating numbers and if you are going to play hypotheticals Perrin can't allow the 2Rs to be wiped off the face of the earth over this conflict. Andor would live to fight another day, not so much for the other side.

 

• and the fact that Elayne can't fight Perrin when the Last Battle is in the offing

That cuts both ways mate, not sure how it helps your cause as Perrin can't afford to actually revolt. Why would Rand possibly let Perrin actually revolt against the mother of his children? Further you have done nothing to show why even a fraction of random refuges would pursue a war against one of the most powerful nations in Randland when they have zero stake in the battle. Half his force would melt away before this thing would even begin. Yes, yes I know ta'veren but if that is seriously your fall back to save Perrinin in this hypothetical situation you have already lost the debate.

Ok, have it your way if Elayne was a complete and utter moron she could have defeated Perrin. Well, that victory would have destroyed Andor within a year probably, but yeah she would have enforced that the 2R didn't secede. Man, what a genius that Elayne would have been.

*Chuckle* Your initial point was Elayne had no leverage in the negotiations. You first took the stance that she couldn't beat his army, you then realized that was incorrect and moved the goal posts to "well she couldn't afford to". Bottom line it's a negotiation and there are risks for both sides. Perrin isn't willing to risk a wholesale slaughter of his people and as such the threat is very real. She played her hand perfectly here and you seem to be bitter about it for no other reason beside character bias. Perrin was not "dumbed down" in the slightest. Trust me, as you know I am more than willing to call out Brandon when he does that. This was not one of those times however.

 

About my numbers being ridiculous show me once where I said all or most of them are fully trained? I have no idea what you are even referring to here, especially given all the numbers you have made up in this conversation. Her Army is comprised of Queen's guard, nobles guardsman, mercenaries and then lastly levies. Out of those groups the only ones with close to as little training as the vast majority of Perrin's troops(we know he only has 5,900 fully trained) are the draftees. Also the way you categorize Perrin's army saying "many" of them are ex-fighters/mercenaries is yet another fabrication.

 

Finally Elayne has 125 channelers at her disposal. Even if they don't take part in the fighting it gives them an overwhelming advantage in intelligence, transport, and supply. All things Great Captains have claimed to be some of the most important elements to fighting a war.

Edited December 13, 2012 by Suttree

[BFG]

 

 

BFG, on 07 Dec 2012 - 16:40, said:

@Herid - it's possible someone remembers that Mat is arguably the best General they have and go to look for him early. It may be a bit of an unnecessary complication, but it would help seal his importance among the gathered armies. Or more likely they go to pick him up at noon :)

 

 

 

just curious - I'm not debating that Mat is a good General, but besides the Band, and whoever may have encountered the Band - knows this tidbit of knowledge?

 

 

 

Only Bashere knows who Mat is....

 

 

 

Byrne does not, or did I miss that section of whatever book? Is Bashere going to convince everyone? I suppose Bashere is the leader of Rands immediate forces, but the other Borderlanders have no clue.

I think Elayne does, Birgette does - but problem is Birgette probably thinks he's dead (as she doesn't think it's possible to survive ToG. Rand also knows, Lan, Eg should (but not sure if she believes it yet). Not sure about the Great Captains, probably just Bashere, but Mat will only have to open his mouth amongst them to prove it to them, I'd be surprised if Bashere or Rand ahd to say anything other than "Mat, Captains, Captains, Mat".

 

 

 

@Aredeis - your argument that Elayne can't afford a battle as she's needed at TG holds true for Perrin as well, Perrin is certainly needed at TG and he's aware that he needs troops (evidenced by him bringing in Whitecloaks in ToM)

[Tsukibana]

Can someone tell me where are all the guys that Bashere took from the black tower  - the ones that couldnt learn to channel?

Armed with crossbow, calling themselves the Legion of the Dragon, and have been secretly dropped off in the middle of Shara to conquer and subdue.

 

Ok, that last part is conjecture. My guess is, Hidden away like the Black Tower was, and when Rand pulls THAT army out of his pocket, boy are people gonna be surprised.

(that is assuming Taim hasn't taken control of them somehow)

[Aredeis]

I don't think there's a compelling argument to be made that either Perrin or Elayne could have afforded to go to war at that juncture.  It's just too close to the last battle for them to foolishly throw men away over relatively petty concerns like territory and sovreignty.  Those are petty and meaningless compared to the end of freaking time itself.  Would have made Perrin and Elayne no better than Pedron Niall and Elaida. scheming for their own benefit while the world burns.  Therefore she was bluffing, pure and simple, she could not/would not at that time have attacked Perrin, but he was in the same, or, and I agree with Suttree here, a slightly smaller boat.  He couldnt afford to call her bluff and she's a waaaay better politician than Perrin.  Which ultimately means Elayne in charge>Perrin in charge anyway, unless you are talking about a battle.  Perrin can fight but I'd much rather have Elayne govern my country.  Them fighting at that juncture makes them both idiots, imho.

[BFG]

@Aredeis

I don't think there's a compelling argument to be made that either Perrin or Elayne could have afforded to go to war at that juncture. It's just too close to the last battle for them to foolishly throw men away over relatively petty concerns like territory and sovreignty. Those are petty and meaningless compared to the end of freaking time itself. Would have made Perrin and Elayne no better than Pedron Niall and Elaida. scheming for their own benefit while the world burns. Therefore he was bluffing, pure and simple, he could not/would not at that time have seceded from Andor, but she was in the same, or, and I agree with Aredeis here, a slightly smaller boat. She couldnt afford to call his bluff and he's a waaaay better taveran than Elayne...

Them fighting at that juncture makes them both idiots, imho.

 

(edited first paragraph)

Why not say that Perrin called the original bluff when his men attempted to secede from Andor (although to be fair that wasn't his choice).