one word....Asmodean..... ;-)

[JRJ]

The "how Taim met Asmodean" is rather important to the "how Taim ended up killing Asmodean."

 

No, it's not. It's just important that it could have happened. Things happen offscreen, that is just the way books work.

 

You are not presenting a theory. A theory is a reasonable assumption that based on verifiable facts but where the available data is insufficient to come to a definite conclusion. You don't have a single fact that you are using as a basis for a connection between Asmodean and Taim.

 

Lol. And there isn't a single fact that gives us any reason to believe Graendal killed Asmodean, and yet she is still considered a good suspect.

 

Go figure.

[Jellybelly]

I can live with personal attacks, just not when the person who insults me is showing an extreme lack of debating skills and comprehension of the books.

 

Let me cut things out for you: When you present a theory, it should be built on evidence. If you have a hunch and it is nowhere supported, you cannot construct a theory on the ABSENCE of evidence, as you do.

 

Whether Jordan said it was obvious to the casual observer before or after TPoD is irrelevant, because this combines with what he said about given information up to TFoH. What you are suggesting is that since RJ said that it was intuitively obvious only after the release of TPoD, he is implying that it is "intuitively obvious" with information gained through books 6, 7 and 8. Which is not the case. When he said that all information needed to identify the killer is included up to books 5, that also means that it should be intuitively obvious with THAT information.

[Bob T Dwarf]

JRJ -

 

There are a couple of obvious points that need to be made here.

 

1. Graendal at least has the benefit of being known and having a readily identifiable motive.

 

2. At the time of Asmodean's death, we have no clue where Taim might be. All we have is the fact that Bashere was looking for assurances that he could bring in Saldaean troops to hunt for him within Andor without starting a Saldaea/Andor war.

 

3. Taim does not appear until 18+ days after Asmo dies. He could have been anywhere at the time of the death. 18+ days is long enough to get a very long ways on horseback. Farther by riverboat. You cannot, with any assurance of accuracy, place him in Andor at the time of the death.

[Graendals favourite]

And there isn't a single fact that gives us any reason to believe Graendal killed Asmodean, and yet she is still considered a good suspect.

 

Besides there's plenty of those in Glowing Embers. In fact, general knowledge added, enough to build the whole conclusive case for her, without her even being mentioned.

[Bob T Dwarf]

G's fave -

 

The biggest of the many big holes in your theory is that Graendal had spoken to Demandred before Demandred went to Shayol Ghul. She has no reason to conceal killing Asmo from Demandred, if, she had, in fact, killed him. Yet, it is the DO who tells Demandred that Asmo is dead.

 

Later, when Demandred reports to the others about his visit to the Pit of Doom, he passes along the information that Asmodean is dead. Graendal then combines that with Rahvin's death and the rumors she's heard about Lanfear, and passes her conclusions concerning Asmo's death along to Sammael.

 

She may have been known, and had motive, but there is no evidence to support a contention that she had either the means to kill Asmo undetected, or the opportunity to do so.

[Graendals favourite]

The biggest of the many big holes in your theory is that Graendal had spoken to Demandred before Demandred went to Shayol Ghul. She has no reason to conceal killing Asmo from Demandred, if, she had, in fact, killed him. Yet, it is the DO who tells Demandred that Asmo is dead.

 

Later, when Demandred reports to the others about his visit to the Pit of Doom, he passes along the information that Asmodean is dead. Graendal then combines that with Rahvin's death and the rumors she's heard about Lanfear, and passes her conclusions concerning Asmo's death along to Sammael.

 

You have to keep in mind that while the ambush theory is similar to the traditional one in what happened, Graendal saw Asmo in the garden instead of Asmo just stumbling on her, the evidence is completely different. I use that final paragraph of Asmo's pov to conclude the murderer must have known Asmodean was coming, and alone. Otherwise the murder would not have happened, or would have happened differently. But it couldn't have happened the way it happened, not unless the murderer knew beforehand.

 

Only a female forsaken could have known that, via an ambush, so that names Graendal. I don't use other info to get to her name.

 

Of course, it must make sense that Graendal can be in Caemlyn, without conflicts, but the case is already tied down. It's other theories that base themselves in things like in your quote. Mine in is Glowing Embers, plus general knowledge of what people can do. Though, Mesaana and Semirhage have to be disposed of later, there other info is needed.

 

So:

She may have been known, and had motive, but there is no evidence to support a contention that she had either the means to kill Asmo undetected, or the opportunity to do so.

 

I'm perfectly content at that. The case is anchored in the murder itself, Graendal is determined, so the other end doesn't matter, as long as there's nothing that proves or relevantly suggest her incapable of those things.

 

Just like other cases don't care how exactly the murderer ended up confronting Asmo and killing him, as long as its plausible, I don't care how exactly Graendal's came to Caemlyn, or what she did later.

[Bob T Dwarf]

You're still using circular reasoning.

 

You decide what is "determined" based on nothing but your own desire. Then you invent "facts" to support your conclusion.

 

As someone else said, that's not a theory. It's just a fanciful conclusion. No less fanciful than pirates, or ninjas, or Chuck Norris, or Dr. Who, or Spock, or Santa, or even Bela ( despite all her acknowledged superpowers ).

[Graendals favourite]

You say I'm using logic where because A -> B, B -> C, and C -> A, it would mean all are true. That's what I understand as circular logic. But that isn't what I do.

 

Have you considered the A, how the murder could possibly have happened? Like if a victim has a stab wound and nothing else, he couldn't have been killed with a rope? That is a perfectly acceptable tool for an investigation, and taken together with the fact that Asmo really did die, the whole case is confirmed.

 

So A = It couldn't be an accidental encounter, the murderer had to have knowledge of events beforehand.

B = It had to be an ambush.

C = It had to be a female forsaken.

 

You notice that C leading to A is superfluous, and unnecessary. If Graendal were incapable, Mesaana or Semirhage would have to be considered, since they are dismissed on the lightest grounds, they were not likely, unintroduced except as female Forsaken.

 

And truly, C may very well lead to A, but it cannot be proven, nor is it necessary.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Where do you get that it cannot be an accidental encounter?

 

Jordan himself has described Asmo as "roadkill." Nothing is more accidental than roadkill. Asmo simply walked through the wrong door at the wrong time. No elaborate setup. No stalking about in shadows. No peeking through windows.

 

Asmo just picked the wrong door to open. None of it was planned. It just happened.

[Graendals favourite]

I'll just repost the reasons. They could be phrased more definitively and completely, but the essense is there. Just remember the person in the room couldn't see more than that Asmo'd just opened the door. Edit: And that the person inside would've been as surprised as asmo: that someone came, and then that it was Asmo. No ambush-advantage then.

 

Jedimuppet' date=' I'll repost here my reasons why I find the accidental encounter doesn't make sense. (It took time even for me to find the post, and I'm too lazy to rephrase.) This is the part where I can't state facts aside from that the door was random, and that Asmo PULLED open the door, took one step through it, saw and recognised the killer and stopped. But I think an ambush is the only way that the killing the way it was done makes sense.

 

[i']It doesn't make sense for a forsaken to go about in the Palace unmasked. For a forsaken it doesn't make sense to kill Asmodean without knowing whether he's alone, let alone drop the mask when Asmodean enters. Even if a forsaken should be temporarily unmasked and surprised, it does not make sense for him or her to risk all his plans for a chancy thing of fighting Asmodean AND the Light knows who at the same time.

 

For non-channeller, it doesn't make sense to be able to kill asmodean in that configuration, being as surprised as Asmodean and not near enough for physical contact in that time.

 

For a channeller not able to mask, it is still not sensible to risk his or hers plans engaging in a fight with one of the Forsaken, instead of trying to flee. [/i]

 

The term roadkill is non-evidence, but I too understand it as a hint. Take someone crossing a street, then seeing a truck come on him. He freezes, instead of immediately jumping out of the way. The exact reason why it makes sense to ambush the way it was done behind a door. Thus the hint alludes to the ambush scheme.

[havoc110]

Bob,

 

Your holes in the Graendal theory aren't all that big.

 

For example, she would have plenty of reason to conceal her murder of Asmo because she is planning to take the Nae'blis title, and doesn't want to present herself as moving up the ranks.

 

Why not stay in the shadows as an underrated player, and avoid having other Chosen gunning for you?

 

Also, she would have reason to lie to Sammy to, for the same reason, and to instill fear in Sammy by saying that Rand is coming after him next. (Which by the way, she also has no way of knowing, so this would be another fabrication). Not to mention, as soon as Sammy leaves,she starts her internal dialog on how she was manipulating him.(LoC6)

 

Your "holes" are based on Graendal telling what for her would be the honest truth on both occasions.

 

Makes you wonder how she became a Forsaken in the first place.

[Mad Season]

I don't think Taim would have decided to attack Asmodean, a Forsaken, if he wanted to keep his movements secret. Lanfear (Rand and maybe Moiraine) are the only ones aware of Asmodean's shield. I don't think Lanfear spread the fact she shielded Asmodean to help Rand so they could challenge the DO. So, if Taim knows about the shield he would have to be in Lanfear's deepest trust, which I don't see any evidence for.

 

With this is mind why would Taim attack a Forsaken, he thinks is unshielded, to remain hidden, when Rand is nearby. If they bump into each other Taim couldn't expect to kill Asmodean quicker than Asmodean would react. And regarding their strengths I personally think Asmodean is stronger than Taim. If you remember his fight with Rand it ended with both of them not being able to channel. And we have yet to see a non-Forsaken male channeler that can match Rand. Also Asmodean has a ton more experience channeling and knows all the weaves from the Age of Legends. But even if Taim could win a fight with Asmodean it would be on the scale of the one between Rand and Asmodean, which destroyed a whole city. This doesn't seem like the logical way to stay hidden.

 

I'm not sure if anyone says Taim was sent to kill Asmodean, but again I don't see a Forsaken sending Taim to kill another Forsaken. Theres no evidence Taim equals Asmodeans strength. Even if he did Asmodean's Age of Legends knowledge would most likely win the battle in a fair fight, Taim wouldn't have Lews Therin's help or the upper-hand in strength like Rand did. And even if Taim somehow miraculously won its not in a Forsaken's best interest to show Dreadlords that they can best Forsaken, as he/she could easily be the next target after Asmodean.

[son omerc]

son o'merc: The Three Oaths would not have presented any problems for Moiraine killing Asmodean or any other darkfriend. By RJ's own words' date=' Darkfriends are fair game. Attracting Belal wasn't necessary except to prevent any immediate action being taken by him against Rand.[/size']

 

But a big part of the assumption is that Moiraine was certain that Nateal was one of the Forsaken. She doesn't come out and say that, she hints and shades her words so you assume that she knew. I think any hint of doubt would compel her to confront Nateal with her assumptions and deductions before acting. Because WE know who Nateal is we assume Moiraine could also, but in reality she has NO PROOF as to his hidden identity, and with no proof there would almost certainly be some shadow of doubt as to her deduction.

[JRJ]

I don't think Taim would have decided to attack Asmodean' date=' a Forsaken, if he wanted to keep his movements secret. Lanfear (Rand and maybe Moiraine) are the only ones aware of Asmodean's shield. I don't think Lanfear spread the fact she shielded Asmodean to help Rand so they could challenge the DO. So, if Taim knows about the shield he would have to be in Lanfear's deepest trust, which I don't see any evidence for. [/quote']

 

I don't think the shield had much to do with anything. Taim I believe, was stronger than Asmodean unshielded, when he killed Asmodean. So when he struck Asmodean, he struck as if to kill Asmodean at full power. It just so happened that Asmodean was shielded AND MORTAL (meaning Asmodean didn't expect to get ressurected), so he could only shout "No!" as the fatal Bar of Fire shot across the room

 

With this is mind why would Taim attack a Forsaken, he thinks is unshielded, to remain hidden, when Rand is nearby.

 

He would kill Asmodean because he had betrayed the Dark. I think most Forsaken knew that Asmodean had betrayed the Dark. Lanfear told Graendal, Sammael and Rahvin, certainly, but Moggy also knew Asmodean had betrayed the Dark. So word had to have gotten around.

 

Not to mention, Rahvin had the chance to make sure Lanfear wasn't lying by sending the Darkhounds to kill Asmodean. I think Rahvin told Taim to kill Asmodean if he saw him.

 

If they bump into each other Taim couldn't expect to kill Asmodean quicker than Asmodean would react. And regarding their strengths I personally think Asmodean is stronger than Taim.

 

I think you are wrong based upon two things :

 

Rand thinks he is even with Asmodean in Rhuidean, end of tSR.

Rand thinks Taim held "nearly as much" in LOC, after fighting Lanfear and Rahvin, having Asmodean teach him, among many other battles (cairhein, caemlyn, etc).

 

I think Taim is slightly stronger than Asmodean, but equal with Demandred.

 

Whether Jordan said it was obvious to the casual observer before or after TPoD is irrelevant' date=' because this combines with what he said about given information up to TFoH. What you are suggesting is that since RJ said that it was intuitively obvious only after the release of TPoD, he is implying that it is "intuitively obvious" with information gained through books 6, 7 and 8. Which is not the case. When he said that all information needed to identify the killer is included up to books 5, that also means that it should be intuitively obvious with THAT information.[/quote']

 

I'm sorry, I was under the impression that Jordan literally meant what he said.

 

"Intuitively obvious to a casual observer."

 

A casual observer wouldn't have access to outside sources ... such as Jordan's blog or Dragonmount message boards.

 

If you think that you, and only you, can prove any suspect to be "intuitively obvious to a casual observer" by the end of TFOH, be my guest.

 

Afterall, people have only been debating that question for how long now?

[Bob T Dwarf]

Bob' date='

Why not stay in the shadows as an underrated player, and avoid having other Chosen gunning for you?

[/quote']

 

All of the Forsaken are gunning for each other anyway. All of them know that. Demandred knowing that Graendal had taken out Asmo would have no bearing on his own plans to take her out, or hers to take him out. Lying to Demandred serves no purpose for her.

 

Lying to Sam does serve her purposes, and I never said she wouldn't lie to Sam. I simply said that she had no need. Demandred had told her that Asmo was dead. She passed that and her own emphasis on Rand being the killer along to Sam as part of her ploy to manipulate him into committing suicide by attacking Rand.

[Bob T Dwarf]

I'm sorry' date=' I was under the impression that Jordan literally meant what he said.

 

"Intuitively obvious to a casual observer."[/quote']

 

Which is why it cannot be Taim. There is nothing intuitively obvious about Taim. We haven't even met him. Taim is just a name mentioned in a lot of wild rumors.

 

There are lots of wild rumors about the bogeyman, too. Should we say it's intuitively obvious that the bogeyman did it? Of course not.

 

And, it is no more intuitively obvious that Taim did it. When Asmo dies, Taim is just the current Randland bogeyman. For all we know, we might never meet Taim. He might be recaptured by the White Tower. He might be killed. He might simply disappear and never be mentioned again. When somebody hasn't yet made his entrance onstage, he simply can't be a suspect.

[havoc110]

All of the Forsaken are gunning for each other anyway. All of them know that. Demandred knowing that Graendal had taken out Asmo would have no bearing on his own plans to take her out' date=' or hers to take him out. Lying to Demandred serves no purpose for her.

 

You don't think that if Graendal comes out and says "I killed Asmo", that the other Forsaken wouldn't double-take and then consider her a MUCH more serious threat?

[Paradoxic]

Taim is basically on grounds with Logain in the area of "intuitively obvious" according to this logic. They are both False Dragons recently arrested for sowing chaos and destruction, right? Slayer as well, right? I mean, if we use the information we gain from later books, we know he can step out of T'A'R and that he likes to kill channelers... right? How are these three suspects functionally different as of the end of TFoH. If it turns out that Taim did, indeed, kill Asmodean... I'm sending RJ poster-sized photocopies of the dictionary entries for "intuitive" and "obvious".

 

The proof being supplied for Taim is a slew of suppositions that cannot be proven or disproven. It's like saying "well, someone robbed this store, but we don't know who... so round up everyone in 50 miles that does not have an alibi and throw them all in jail". We don't know anything about Taim before the murder... we don't know what he was doing between the murder and meeting Rand... and we don't know if he is even a DF (though, I admit that the evidence is rather strongly against him). We are presents with empty space where anything can be invented without ANY chance of it being disproven. No, we can't disprove that Asmodean fostered Taim. No, we can't disprove that someone told Taim to go and kill Asmodean. Know why? Because we have a vertible wasteland of information.

 

I can say, with exactly the same level of certainty and disprovability that Taim was a puppet for the Black Ajah. That he was rescued and was swiftly moved to another area away from searchers. He was then given a command to seek out Rand and take part in this 'pardon' of his so to give the darkfriends an 'in' on the soon-to-be-created Black Tower. He traveled for several weeks to Andor and met with Rand as soon as he got there.

 

Disprove my theory. It fulfills all the requirements and does it without any direct Forsaken involvement (the only place for even the touch of Forsaken would be in the command to have him released, and that is just as likely to have come from the pre-Messana Black Ajah). Since it can't be disproven, holds the exact same level of believability, and one cannot supply anything beyond the creation of theory from nothing... how can you claim Taim killed Asmodean?

 

-----------------------------------------------

Now, for something completely different:

 

Graendal's hiding of the fact that she knocked off Asmodean would fit perfectly with her MO. She doesn't want to draw attention to herself, she doesn't want to appear a threat, she doesn't want anyone to wonder what else she'll do. She's playing the obediant lackey to Sammael not because she thinks he'll become nae'blis, but because he's easy to manipulate. If she admits to killing Asmodean, she'll be seen as an immediate threat and thus the other Forsaken will be much less willing to assist her.

[Graendals favourite]

Besides, as with many other people, what they do doesn't necessarily have anything to do with what they say they did. They do what they think best, and say what they think best.

 

I reread a little time ago the WH teaparty, where Demandred thinks Graendal was a little extravagant even for herself at throwing her winecup to Lanfear's news concerning the cleansing. So he thinks Graendal bore watching, and didn't go for the provocation. The open question is, whether Graendal's intention was to provoke, or something else, did she succeed or not? Did she want to convey to the perceptive that she has info of events beforehand? Anyway, nothing in that is letting others know their true thoughts, not from Demandred Graendal or others.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Under different circumstances, Graendal killing Asmo would, indeed, make her a bigger target. But, Lanfear had set Asmo up as a target for everyone as of the Prologue to tFoH. He was a known traitor. There was open season on him.

 

Asmo was considered by all the other Forsaken to be the wimp of the group. While each of the others thinks of themselves as the best and brightest and strongest and most capable, all of them would consider any of the others capable of swatting Asmo like a fly. There would be nothing particularly remarkable about any of them killing him once he was a known traitor.

 

We still need evidence that Graendal had both the means to accomplish the murder undetected and the opportunity to do so. There is no such evidence in The Fires of Heaven. Nor is there any such evidence in any later book. As Jellybelly and cwestervelt have said, a theory cannot be based on the absence of disproving evidence. The only thing that can be built on the absence of disproving evidence is a fanciful story.

 

In Graendal's case, we do have disproving evidence. Her planned meeting with Moghedien on the day of the murder. She simply wasn't anywhere near Caemlyn when the crime was committed.

[Graendals favourite]

Killing a traitor teaching the Dragon Reborn is a big thing, not exactly swatting a fly.

 

Means. We know of inverted weaves, take Lanfear posing as Keille. So the forsaken are can walk around the palace as a pillar if they choose, maybe even as invisible, that is what Lanfear seemed to do at Falme. We know the Forsaken can travel, so the ambush is no problem. With the advantage of the ambush, killing an unshielded Asmo should be no problem. Also we know Aviendha was the only female channeller in the palace, untrained enough not to have forsaken-like, or even Rand-like experience with the power, and we don't know she didn't notice something. Something is far from a forsaken. Even if she didn't, why should she?

 

Opportunity. The means make the opportunity. The meeting doesn't disprove anything, perhaps it was on the same day, but that doesn't mean it took all of the day. Meeting Moghedien is just as likely to take place at night, in T'a'r. Would Graendal be so desperate to meet Moghedien that she'd spend the day searching for her, as if anyone could find the Spider when she didn't want to be found.

 

Not everything needs to be proven. The case is, who killed Asmodean, not what did the killer do those few days.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Killing a traitor teaching the Dragon Reborn is a big thing' date=' not exactly swatting a fly.

 

Means. We know of inverted weaves, take Lanfear posing as Keille. [/quote']

 

Asmo teaching Rand does not make Asmo any more formidable as an opponent. He's still the weakest of the Forsaken even at his full strength.

 

At the time of the murder, we do NOT know about inverted weaves. Thus the use of an inverted weave cannot figure into any theory for Asmo's death, since an inverted weave wouldn't be intuitively obvious to anybody.

[Graendals favourite]

Be Asmo's strength what it may, but him teaching Rand makes his removal especially good in the Dark One's eyes. And the Dark One is the only one who needs to know who killed the traitor, from the killer's pov.

 

It's reversed weaves we didn't know about, not inverted. Perhaps we didn't know the name inverted, but we knew Keille was Lanfear, Marigan (or Nicole or Areina) Moghedien, neithr of whom apparently could channel, and Moghedien hiding the seal in Tanchico so it couldn't be seen and the tied-off weaves couldn't be seen by others.

[Asmodean]

It was obviously Aviendha. :twisted:

 

It was not anyone on the darkside. If the Dark One wanted Asmo dead, he would have had him taken out much earlier. Lanfear is the only one of the Foresaken with a possible motive, and she was out of the picture. Plus, Slayer and the other surviving Forsaken were simply too much "unknown" if you think about the series just up until the fourth book and forget about what you know since.

 

This leaves Rand, Morainne, Matt and Aviendha (or maybe a Wise One/Aiel).

 

Rand is out of the picture because of what we know about his thoughts later, he doesn't even know Asmo is dead.

 

Matt has no real motive and it just doesn't fit his character.

 

A random Wise One/Aiel is kind of a copout, so I don't put too much weight in that, though a motive on their part is possible.

 

However, Moiraine and Aviendha do have at least a motive that you can imply from the story. They both went through the rings, and may know his true identity, as well as some evil he might do in the future if allowed to live. They also know the importance of his "training" Rand, a good reason to let him live for a bit. But, it also seems that Moiraine is out of the picture (short of real "out there" theories).

 

This leaves Aviendha. A women with no qualms about killing, a possible motive, and a dislike for dark friends by the very nature of her culture. And, most of all, a desire to protect Rand. Remember, Asmo's last thoughts were about keeping himself alive first and foremost, certainly a person who would turn on Rand the moment an opportunity that could benefit him came to light. A reason why, if anything, the DO would want to keep him around.

 

How did Aviendha do it? Simple. She followed him quitely as he left the courtyard and dispatched of him physically, no channeling involved. Wasn't it kind of strange anyway that she was hanging with Matt and Asmo at the end? They are not exactly buddy-buddy.

[Guest Egwene]

Asmodean.... hope you don't mind if I call you Asmo (nice name!) RJ is supposed to have planted further evidence confirming the killer in later books. I can't think of anything that would strengthen the Aviendha theory... but I'd love to be prooven wrong!