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The Dirty Landry

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When you have some evidence as to why the Finns couldnt have provided Lanfear a new body and less channeling ability, post that.

 

Something like...

Tamyrlin:

The snakes and foxes seem to have a lot of powers. Do they also have the power. I have two questions: can they transmigrate souls? Two: can they hold the soul of an individual they have killed.

 

RJ: No No to both.

http://theoryland.yuku.com/topic/9916/t/First-dragon-con-report.html

 

So, no new body from the 'finns.

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You still don't get it! Read my post. The problem with your dimissals of those 3 theories is they are HYPOTHETICAL. You are demanding I debate hypotheticals. The only way to argue those is to invent counter hypotheticals which you will then counter with more hypotheticals. The problem with those 10 paragraphs is NONE OF IT IS HARD EVIDENCE. It is undebatable. You want me, so desperately, to fall into a tit for tat argument where we construct fabricated theories to undermine one anothers.

 

When you have some evidence as to why the Finns couldnt have provided Lanfear a new body and less channeling ability, post that. I'm not arguing against your speculation since none of it is text supported. Same goes for why the DO wouldn't punish her or why she couldn't have died and got a new body with less One Power strength. None of that is evidence based, sir. It is speculative. I cannot argue against it so I won't. That doesn't mean you win though.

 

So you just wanna give 'tit' and avoid the 'tat'? You've attacked my comments, without ever addressing them. You've stated my addressals of other theories as 'offhand dismissals', without commenting on the detailed arguments I gave as to sustain my dismisal.

 

As for the rest, yes, it is speculation. Well researched, and (in my opinion) well argued speculation. If you can't, or don't want to argue against it then don't post. Or, if you do, say something along the lines of 'Personally I don't agree.'

 

Don't dismiss posters comments offhand. Don't use terms like '100% speculation'. Don't apply to the courts or the scientific method as basis for you attacks (unless you actually understand them, and utilize that specific understanding in your argument).

 

Luckers, play nice.

 

I have. Admittedly asking his age implied I thought he was an immature poster--and I appologise--but I was genuinely curious. You've seen me 'not play nice', so you should know the difference.

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Well if anyone else has stuck with this thread through all of the interplay and angst I have a couple of questions.

 

1. If the Finns killed or somehow punished agents of the Shadow that enter their relm, how can Isam/Luc enter the ToG in SR and live?

 

Birgitte told Perrin that it was nearly impossible to leave if entered in the World of Dreams. Also, Morraine mentioned that questions that touched to close to the DO had dire consequenses. That is left rather vague.

 

2. Is the guide gospel?

 

I know that RJ signed off on the BWB but he has changed his mind/reworked elements of the story before.

 

3. If we use Asmo's analogy for strength, that men are stronger than women with the OP in about the same proportions as they are physically: Rand, Taim, Logain and the male Forsaken are powerlifters. Bench pressing 600 pounds and the strong female Forsaken like Graendahl and Moghdein are considerably weaker bench pressing 350 pounds. Nyneave is about the same strength as Moghdein and stronger the Elayne or Egwene. This is shown in how Rand easily handles Elayne and Egwene, and their reaction to it. Now for my question. If Lanfear was an abberation, close in strength to LTT, then reduced to merely strong for a woman, wouldn't that be a considerable drop in power?

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If Nynaeve couldn't Heal us all the way the first time, maybe she'll only take us to two-thirds what we were, or half. Even that would be better than now, but still most here would be as strong, and a good many stronger

Two thirds what they were is exactly as much as two thirds what they were. That means 66.7 percent of their original strength (original strength=what they were originally).

 

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1. If the Finns killed or somehow punished agents of the Shadow that enter their relm, how can Isam/Luc enter the ToG in SR and live?

We don't know that he/they did.

 

2. Is the guide gospel?

It's supposed to be written with knowledge passed down through generations, and thus it's what "present day" Aes Sedai believe is the truth. Some things are bound to be wrong, read the preface.

 

3. If we use Asmo's analogy for strength, that men are stronger than women with the OP in about the same proportions as they are physically: Rand, Taim, Logain and the male Forsaken are powerlifters. Bench pressing 600 pounds and the strong female Forsaken like Graendahl and Moghdein are considerably weaker bench pressing 350 pounds. Nyneave is about the same strength as Moghdein and stronger the Elayne or Egwene. This is shown in how Rand easily handles Elayne and Egwene, and their reaction to it. Now for my question. If Lanfear was an abberation, close in strength to LTT, then reduced to merely strong for a woman, wouldn't that be a considerable drop in power?

Yeah, women are less than half the strength of men. Both in powerlifting and otherwise. As for Cyndane, she didn't drop more than 50 percent of her original strength.

 

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I read a theory about a month ago on a different board (which I cant remember for the life of me) that analyzed it differently. They looked at it from the point of view that when a woman is healed by a woman, they lost a set amount of their power (10 one power points or some such), not a percentage.

 

They had theoretical numbers and somehow had it worked out where Leanne and Siuan would have ended up losing a large chunk of their strength, and Lanfear could lose the same amount and still be considered strong for a woman, even stronger that Graendal. Also, remember that Lanfear was as strong as it was possible for a woman to be in her prime. I think while it has never been said outright, Rand/ltt and Ishamael/moridin probably are as strong as a man could be, with Aginor close behind. So, if you figure Lanfear could 'bench press' to use the earlier analogy, 500 pounds, instead of the 350 most other women who are considered strong can, she is still much stronger. Now, the average man (in wot one power strength) can only put up about 400, and throw graendal in at 450. Comparitively, Lews Therin, Ishy, and any one else with maxed out potential can bench 600 lbs., and Aginor 590. So the Dragon is stronger, but not enough to give him an overwhelming advantage, hence being met 'stroke for stroke' in the Hall of the Servants. The rest of the male forsaken, and probably most of the hundred companions as well, were probably 550 (Asmodean, the weakest dog in the pack) to 575, stronger than most anyone else, for all intents and purposes.

 

Now, even in the aol, these strenghts could not have been commonplace. Granted, there were 2-3 times as many people wielding the one power, and because of those statistics people were more likely to have greater potential, but to be as powerful as humanly possible would be rare, from a general statistics point of view.

 

Of course, I have never really understood why something like strength in the one power has a limit. Not individually, because obviously you cannot exceed your potential, but the whole 'as strong as it is possible to be' thing perplexes me. It is probably just a law of nature, like it is impossible for a human here to fly or some such silliness. Something which is just taken for granted in that world. Its most likely because I dont grasp intangible things and concepts like that very well. I love to read about them, but when i attempt to reason it out I lose my mind.

 

Just some food for thought, and an alternate way of viewing the whole stilling/healing theories. If I can track down that other thread with the theory i referred to earlier i will post it to give credit for the idea originally.   

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from: perrin51 on Today at 07:00:22 AM

1. If the Finns killed or somehow punished agents of the Shadow that enter their relm, how can Isam/Luc enter the ToG in SR and live?

We don't know that he/they did.

 

We know that Isam/Luc made it out again. He showed up later in the book and was subsqunetly shot by Perrin. He is still around.

 

I just don't think that the 'Finns care about which side someone is on. I think that the questions that come to close to the DO are painful for them or maybe poisonous. They either get enjoyment, like a drug, or nourishment out of peoples memories or experiences.

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Luckers, since you discounted what me and the other guy (don't remember his name) pointed out about the siuan quote you provide based on what RJ supposedly said, lets look at this in more detail.

 

“If Nynaeve couldn’t heal us all the way the first time, then maybe she can take us to two-thirds what we were. Or even half. Even that would be better than now, but still here many would be as strong, and a good many stronger.”

[LoC: 30 – To Heal Again – 617]

 

Now, I draw your attention first of all to the fact that when they speak of returning to two thirds, or half of what they were, they are not speaking of their over all strength, but rather of the strength they lost. Effectively their current strength is zero, and their top strength is a hundred. The two-thirds and half are referring to the gap in between their current strength and their old strength.

 

This is what I had an issue with.  You are interpreting this wrong.  I conceded that they may be mistaken in believing that they are less than 2/3 their original strength (irrationality due to the emotions involved, blurring provided by social hierarchy), and I believe that their lack of belief can 100% explain the difference between how much they supposedly lost and Cyndane lost.  However this quote means exactly what it says, that she thinks her current power is not even 2/3 what it was.  I feel it's ludicrous that someone who is as eloquent and analytical as you can look at that quote and tell me that she's really talking about adding 2/3 or half of what she lost.  It doesn't even harm your theory, this is just plain, simple english, that me and at least one other guy thought here feel that you are twisting around and forcing into your theory, when in reality, it doesn't need to fit mathematically!  It is just the problem where (other than RJ), no one has a scale to objectively quantify strength in the power (including the characters in the series), and therefore due to being emotional and siuan's huge drop in the social hierarchy caused her to severely overestimate their drop in strength.

 

Firstly, how much did Cyndane lose? We know that she is stronger than Graendal, and that even if Graendal’s beliefs about her own strengths are self-delusions, as RJ suggests most of the Forsaken’s beliefs about their own strength comparative to others are, we still know that Graendal is very strong—indeed, without the angreal Graendal was still stronger than Someryn, who had never encountered anyone stronger than she amongst the thousands of Aiel Wise Ones who could channel.

 

I don't have any issues here, but I'm wondering whether someone knows if there's ever been any evidence that can help us figure out how Someryn compares to Avi, and therefore Egwene/Elayne?  Since Siuan, Moiraine, and particularly Cadsuane were seen as very strong in the power until they showed up, and Nynaeve is much stronger than those 2 and is still about on par with Moghedien, who as far as I can tell is at least a little weaker than Graendal.  My point is basically, I'm not sure how accurate of a marker Someryn can be here, unless you guys remember more facts about her strength than I do, which is always very possible.

 

So we have two women around Siuan’s strength, and four who are weaker. Add Daigian and Elise Worrel and of the twenty-two Aes Sedai we have strength related comments about, six are weaker than Siuan.

 

Why is this significant? Because if Siuan and Leane are still within the range of Aes Sedai strength than a) they did not lose more than half their strength, and b) their strength attains an immediate judgment within the social hierarchy in reference to their old strength and position.

 

Sorry, but I don't follow your logic here.  

You're saying that statement "a)" follows from the statement that Siuan and Leane are still in the Aes Sedai range... is this entirely based on what RJ said about percentiles that you posted in the following quote?

 

Lets take at what that hierarchy and judgment reflects. So, the social hierarchy represents a very limited range of strengths. According to RJ [insert proper quote] the Aes Sedai cut off point is at the 36.2 percentile which establishes the bottom limit for the social range, whilst the upper limit is established by Siuan’s previous strength, where Romanda and Lelaine now sit (note: I exclude Cadsuane and the Wonder Girls because they are outliers; the former is thought dead and the latter aren’t truly included in the Aes Sedai range by most Aes Sedai due to the way they were raised).

 

I'm sure that you and whoever you worked with to come up with this theory know very clearly what you're trying to say, but it doesn't come off clear or convincing at all.  First of all, If someone could dig up the exact quote of RJ in question here, that would be much appreciated as we can't risk being mistaken if we're going to use statistics to place their past and present strengths.

 

But reading this paragraphs a few things jump out at me.

a) What do you even mean, RJ said 36.2 percentile is the cutoff?  As it is it seems silly to break things into percentiles when you're going to be using a cutoff in between the 36th and 37th percentiles, but maybe they do this in more advanced stats, I don't know?  But anyhow, is the percentile from a channeling strength distribution that he personally used to rank the characters?  Also, what is "establishes the bottom limit for the social range" supposed to mean?  Wouldn't the bottom limit in society's overall range of channeling strength necessarily be zero (unable to channel)? Do you mean its the cutoff for becoming Aes Sedai? That would be the only thing I can imagine making sense in that context.  Also, to be accurate, we would need to know if this statistic is taken from a continuum including, only aes sedai, all female channelers, or all channelers, and any excluded individuals.

 

b) If we're talking percentiles, we're talking about this as a statistical distribution, in which case, there doesn't necessarily have to be an "upper limit".  Yes, Siuan was previously thought to be the strongest Aes Sedai (given Cadsuane's supposed death), but that doesn't make her strength the limit.  It would place her in the top percentile of strength mapping out all the full Aes Sedai in the tower at the time of Siuan's rule, but that is pretty much not relevant to a debate including Cyndane and Graendal's strength.  If that statistic is from a distribution of the strengths of all female channelers in the series, Lanfear falls in the 100th percentile, and a wilder with barely any ability like Morgase would fall in the lowest percentile (non-channelers would not be included in such a continuum.  Other than that, we have NO IDEA which percentile anyone falls in as we DON'T KNOW what the distribution looks like, we don't have any equation to describe it that could be used to predict what percentile someone might fall in, etc. etc.  I don't think you can take one statistic handed out by RJ and then make firm assumptions based on it without knowing much more statistical information, unless the quote (which wasn't provided) gave more information than you did, Luckers.  And if he meant 36.2 percentile on a continuum of ALL channelers (male and female), then it's an entirely different story that needs a different set of statistical information to make any real conclusions.  Same story if its a distribution of just the full Aes Sedai at any given point in time.

 

c) you've talked a few times about averages.  if we're really going to pretend that we're dealing with real statistics here, do you mean the mean or the median.  Depending on which one, and the type of distribution we're dealing with (it could be a bimodal distribution for all we know, or some crazy shape), the amount of strength Siuan could lose and still be above the cutoff and have the "average" be halfway between her healed and former strength could vastly differ.

 

Again, on a very rough chart lets say for the purpose of consideration that Siuan’s former strength was 60, that means the social hierarchy range includes less than 30% of the range of channeling strengths. Therefore, even a minute loss of strength would result in a fairly large decrease of social standing. If Siuan and Leane lost the same degree of strength as Lanfear (10 to 15 units) than yes, they would experience the loss of social standing stated. Beyond that, keeping in mind that RJ has stated that the Aes Sedai strength distribution is not even it also allows for the average to be roughly half way between their new and old strengths.

 

*AND EARLIER ON YOU SAID*

For very rough perception, lets say that Lanfear was a hundred. If Graendal is an 85 or an 80, Lanfear could have lost 10 to 15 units of strength, and still be stronger than Graendal. At 85 there would not be many women the world over who topped Graendal. But is this comparable to what Siuan and Leane lost?

...

 

I know you admitted this is very rough, but it basically tells us nothing, especially if we try to fit it into the context of the statistic RJ apparently gave.  Its a hypothetical scenario where Lanfear could be healed by a woman and lose an arbitrary number of units of strength and still be above Graendal's totally arbitrary number of strength units.  Ok.  Sure it shows that the healing might have been possible if the numbers really looked anything like this but we really have no idea.  You could create a different arbitrary scale and take away a different arbitrary number of strength units form Lanfear to show that she could also very possibly have ended up below Graendal. Basically, the rough scale is a nice thought exercise, but basically not conclusive about anything.

 

Basically, you need to provide a lot of details and clarifications if you really want anyone who thinks about it more than just in passing to buy this segment of your theory.  Overall, I AGREE with you.  I'm just not sure that some of the examples and explanations you gave are valid support for that theory.  Especially that one quote about how much strength Siuan and Leane believed themselves to have lost.

 

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does anyone find the whole process of characters dying only to be 'back' kinda eventful? once characters stay dead its better they remain dead. bringing them back only cheapens their earlier death and dilutes the character further.

 

 

although i must say seeing balthamael/arangar in action is not bad. he died too early. just like belal,aginor and rahvin

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For what its worth:

 

http://13depository.blogspot.com/2009/02/saidar-strength-ranking.html

 

I think its pretty well researched.

 

Suian went from level 12 to level 5. A drop of 7 points or 58%.

Leane went from level 11 to 5. A drop of 6 points or 54%.

 

Lanfear went from level 21 to level 20. A drop of 1 point or 4.7%.

 

 

 

Of course the next argument is whether or not the scale is logarithmic or exponential...

 

Ugh the fact that the gaps between levels are uneven makes things more effort than they're worth.  BTW it also means those percentages are meaningless as we don't know the difference between levels.  I guess a scale like this is only useful for doing what RJ says he used it for, lets you know who's stronger than who, but not really by how much or how significant the difference between any given person is.  Especially because in a realistic scenario it's doubtful that the people on a level together are the exact same strength, its just that the differences between their strengths isn't significant.  I'm not going to think about this anymore and just wait and see what happens. At least it gives me a quick answer to my question about Someryn.

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1. If the Finns killed or somehow punished agents of the Shadow that enter their relm, how can Isam/Luc enter the ToG in SR and live?

Very likely he didn't. He may have simply exited TAR or shifted elsewhere as part of a gambit to get Perrin to enter and be trapped.

 

Also, Morraine mentioned that questions that touched to close to the DO had dire consequenses. That is left rather vague.

Yes, it's vague and there's no necessary connection between the Eelfinn's questions touching on the shadow and how either the Eelfinn or the Aelfinn might treat darkfriends. It could simply be that the Eelfinn's way of deriving answers by sifting through emotions and experiences leaves a taint if the DO is involved which makes them angry and volatile. Doesn't mean they would attack darkfiends or sight, however, and it may be different rules apply for the Aelfinn anyway. It's pretty speculative.

 

Earlier in the thread, someone suggested that if nothing else arriving in a blaze of out-of-control power-wrought fire probably won't dispose the Aelfinn to cooperate. I call this the get off my lawn thesis of the Finn. Personally, I prefer the more legalistic analysis that the treaty is based around the doorway itself - and with it's destruction - the Aelfinn are free from any covenant to trade wishes with people from the human world.

 

Now for my question. If Lanfear was an abberation, close in strength to LTT, then reduced to merely strong for a woman, wouldn't that be a considerable drop in power?

Cyndane isn't merely strong for a women, she is still stronger than Graendal - far stronger than any of the SGs - though Nynaeve would come closest. Without a agreed upon power metric we don't really know how much that drop is in absolute terms.

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Women can very accurately judge another woman's strength just by standing next to her. Siuan has been standing next to a lot of women.

 

If she (Nynaeve) could bring us up to two thirds what we were, meaning up to 66.7 percent what they were. Still most women would be as strong, and a good many stronger. Meaning, they would still be no stronger than average (at best).

 

Siuan used to be able to lift 3 times her own weight. Now she can't even (properly) lift Gareth Bryne. Lets say Siuan weighs 60 kg and Gareth Bryne weighs 80 kg. Three times her weight is 180 kg. Then Siuan lost 60 percent of her strength. She can now only lift 72 kg. Not enough to (properly) lift Gareth Bryne.

 

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Lets pretend for a little while that I'm wrong. They really were talking of "two thirds of what they lost", not "two thirds of what they were". They really did mean something else than what they actually said.

 

y=Siuan's original strength

x=the amount she lost

0.5=average strength (we don't know what the average is, so I just picked a suitable number - it's of no consequence for us to know the specifics)

 

(y-x)+0.667x=0.5

y=0.5+0.333x

 

If Siuan used to be, for example, 30 percent stronger than the average strength, then she would have been 0.65 in strength (0.5 is the "assumed" average).

 

0.65=0.5+0.333x

x=0.45

 

So, she used to be 0.65 in strength, and then she lost 0.45 in strength. That means that she lost 69 percent of her strength.

 

Very peculiar...

 

 

Furthermore, if 1.0=as strong as a woman can be and 0.5=the mean (we're pretending we have an absolutely symmetric curve), then roughly 1 in every 8 women with any channeling potential (that includes all women, even those as weak as Morgase) will be stronger than Moiraine/Siuan (the stronger ones) level. That's with a spread of 10 000 potential channeler souls. With a spread of hundreds of thousands of channeler souls, we have roughly 1 in every 10 potential channeler being stronger than the stronger Siuan. That level is 0.65 times the strength that any woman can be - the strongest one ever!

 

 

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Nightstrike, for forums stat purposes can you try and make comments in a single post. It's not a huge deal, so don't stress, but when possible modify previous posts as opposed to adding a new one.

 

Thanks for your patience.

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For what its worth:

 

http://13depository.blogspot.com/2009/02/saidar-strength-ranking.html

 

I think its pretty well researched.

 

Suian went from level 12 to level 5. A drop of 7 points or 58%.

Leane went from level 11 to 5. A drop of 6 points or 54%.

 

Lanfear went from level 21 to level 20. A drop of 1 point or 4.7%.

 

 

 

Of course the next argument is whether or not the scale is logarithmic or exponential...

 

I think we need a round of applause for richnewton82 for final working out how this works. Someone posts a theory, in this case Luckers, and then if you agree you post support, if you disagree you post an argument to the contrary including evidence. Up until you last post all you did was rant like a lunatic. And fine you last post clear things up, but before that you completely ignored rebuttal points. What every one was saying was that perhaps, remembering that is was just a theory, when severed and then healed you lost a certain level or set amount.

 

So if you were level 100 and lost, say, 15 you would have lost 15%. But then say if you are level 30 and lost, say 15, you would have lost 50%. So if you apply this too Lanfear, suian argument a set drop that might seem small too Lanfear could seem big to suian.

 

And as a side point this post is biased I will admit because through reading this thread I grew more and m0ore irritated with you richnewton82. And Luckers you are a star!

 

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So if you were level 100 and lost, say, 15 you would have lost 15%. But then say if you are level 30 and lost, say 15, you would have lost 50%. So if you apply this too Lanfear, suian argument a set drop that might seem small too Lanfear could seem big to suian.

I've skim read this thread, but I don't think that point was really disputed by most participants. Admittedly, there was some unnecessary snarkiness and carrying on about "100% speculation" levelled against Luckers, which was gratuitously combative and failed to match the effort put into the OP. But I didn't get the sense that people were contesting outright that a cross-gender healing mechanism could work to explain both Siuan and Lanfear's situation through a fixed power loss, as opposed to a percentage loss. Rather, I think some of the obstinacy came more from the tone of certainty pervading eliminations of other possibilities, despite gaps in the account, and shall we say the over-obfuscation of subjective power ratings.

 

On the latter point, most reasonable people will acknowledge both from RJ's quote, as well as basic common sense about the Aes Sedai hierarchy and Forsaken hubris, that we cannot simply accept strength assessments at face value. That is, we ought to be careful and take account of context, motives, error and the web of social power relations which can easily taint any given ranking. However, I think this argument has a natural limit where we have unambiguous or trusted accounts, or where strength is actually demonstrated in some way. It didn't seem to me that the OP really acknowledged those nuances. Rather, it seemed to want to bulldose a plain interpretation towards a conclusion that Siuan 'obviously' said something quite convoluted. So, on that score I did find this valid argument was perhaps overtaxed to discount Siuan's diminished power. Ironically, despite this causing much of the consternation in the thread, I don't actually think it was in any way necessary for the argument to succeed on its own merits. After all, if we simply say a fixed loss is a likely solution, Siuan's overall shift in ranking becomes no great mystery, and is a peripheral concern at best. Overall, this obviously remains the best and simplest theory, but perhaps in this case, the attempt to be comprehensive and bullet-proof (arguing in the alternative) was taken poorly by some people.

 

Is another explanation apparent? Not easily to my mind, though I'm still interested in the limits of the Finn's powers, even if they can't do transmigration. I also cannot yet shake off my hope that Moiraine's return will be a bit of a Gandalf the White moment, in the sense that she has been powered up. So, I guess I see such a discrepancy like this as one possible avenue to lay the seeds for super Moiraine becoming a reality. But that could happen anyway. I've also been interested in the theory that Lanfear was artificially augmented in the first place, though AFAIK there is no actual evidence for this beyond her having an unlikely cluster of perfections: looks, power, dreamwalking and intelligence.

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once characters stay dead its better they remain dead. bringing them back only cheapens their earlier death and dilutes the character further.
Depends how it's handled. Moiraine was never dead, and the Chosen are servants of an evil god.
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