Theory on the Red Ajah

[Luckers]

No, it wouldn't. Strategically Tar Valon is an important position to hold. Any force that does hold is virtually inassaliable to a non-travelling force.

 

Then there are other conciderations to concider. One, i suspect the fight between the Aes Sedai and the Seanchan will be fought to a stand still. Second, Tar Valon is not the only target for the Shadow. If they are trying to act on a time table... which they likely would be. The forces of the Light are starting to come together. The Shadow would be very foolish to wait around much longer. The most sense is to try and remove Tar Valon now, whilst they are weak and distracted, and before Rand can finish gathering the forces of the light, and launch a counter-attack.

 

Remember too, that they likely know through Semirhage, or one of the darkfriends in Rands crew that Rand has been striving for an Alliance with the Seanchan... something that would end those hostilities. No. It makes sense for the Shadow to push up their schedule and attack Tar Valon sooner rather then later.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I don't really see the force of Light "coming together".

 

Rand is moving his army into position to fight the SEANCHAN, not the Dark One. That Lan's whole reason for being pissed.

 

The Golden Crane notwithstanding, a LARGE portion of the Borderlander's forces are BADLY out of position.

 

All the Seanchan forces are in the South and West, aimed at other targets.

 

The only non-Travelling force that can negate Tar Valon's walls is the Seanchan. That's why the Shadow would be well advised to wait for them to create a breach from the inside.

 

The timetable argument is the only possible reason I can see for the Shadow to attack. Moridin did make it seem a little more urgent with his instructions to the Forsaken in At the Gardens. In fact, that might be how Jordan manages to bring the Aes Sedai and Seanchan to an accomodation. Destroying a Shadowspawn army at the gates would be about the only thing they could agree on.

 

Another point about Rand "knowing the Amyrlin's wrath" ... what if the Seanchan are only enabled to attack the Tower because of Rand's treaty? Boy would THAT piss Egwene off.

[Luckers]

Nevertheless he is bringing his forces into two places. Arad Domon (with the specific purpose of fighting an incursion from the Blight, as well as to be used against the Seanchan) and Tear, with travellers present. This means that the armed forces in the world are indeed amassed. The Seanchan already, since they are invading. The Aes Sedai because of the civil war, Rand forces in Arad Domon and Tear, Elaynes around Caemlyn, and the Borderlanders.

 

They are not yet gathered into a position which could respond to an assault from the Blight, its true, but they are in a position where they could be gathered very quickly if need be. They are all mobalized. All ready to react, and thats my point. Rands overtures to the Seanchan will make this obvious to the Shadow if they dont already realise that.

 

Rand, through travelling and the aid of the Asha'men could visit all the armed forces of the light in a matter of hours, and once he's negotiated with the Seanchan and the Borderlanders it would take very little effort on his part to bring the forces of the light together... not nessasarily in one place, but in concerted opposition of the Shadow. And the more time the Shadow give him to do this, the worse their position gets.

 

Essentially for the Shadow its no longer a matter of destabalizing the Light. The Light is pretty much as unstable as its going to get using subtle methods. Whats required now is an open assault from the Shadow... both through darkfriends hidden amongst the light, and with an all out invasion. Yes, allowing the Seanchan and the Aes Sedai to continue with their spat may weakene them both further, but it gives Rand time to gather the light too. And gives Rand time to stop the Seanchan. Especially if the Seanchan and the Aes Sedai fight to a standstill... the damage they will be doing each other will be insignificant, and if the Shadow lets one group consolidate Tar Valon they will be very, very foolish, especially with the other enemies they have to face.

 

Another point about Rand "knowing the Amyrlin's wrath" ... what if the Seanchan are only enabled to attack the Tower because of Rand's treaty? Boy would THAT piss Egwene off.

 

I don't see any way that could happen. Rand would never choose the Seanchan over the Aes Sedai, and i suspect ceasing assaults against Channelers will be part of his requirements for the Alliance.

[RobertAlexWillis]

If the Seanchan and Aes Sedai settled into a standstill you're right, it would gain the Shadow nothing to continue to wait. But Arad Doman is not a good position to defend an incursion from the Blight. Thats a Seanchan offensive only.

 

Actually, with Travelling rediscovered, it wouldn't really matter where the armies are, they can be gathered to anywhere, from anywhere, faster than Sahdowspawn can move, even through the Ways.

 

I doubt the Seanchan/Aes Sedai struggle would settle into a stalemate. With no outside interference, (ie from Rand) the Seanchan seriously outgun the Aes Sedai, in numbers, both of soldiers and channellers. Speaking of which ...

 

"I don't see any way that could happen. Rand would never choose the Seanchan over the Aes Sedai, and i suspect ceasing assaults against Channelers will be part of his requirements for the Alliance."

 

I suspect that Tuon will never give him that assurance, and the treaty would be no more than a mutual non-aggression pact. Rand has already demonstrated a willingness to accomodate the idea of damane to get his treaty (by sending the sul'dam and damane with Semirhage back). I'm not saying Rand would come out and say "Sure, attack the White Tower, I don't care." I'm saying by taking the heat off the Seanchan, he'll unintentionally allow it. I doubt Tuon is going to disclose her plans to him. She'll probably just agree that they won't fight until Rand's people until after Tar'mon Gaidon, and then jaunt off to Tar Valon, which is not under Rand's nominal or actual control. And, intentional or not, if that happens, Egwene is gonna be PISSED at Rand. Her reactions to him have never been rational, and the Seanchan involvement would multiply that a hundred fold.

[Luckers]

If the Seanchan and Aes Sedai settled into a standstill you're right, it would gain the Shadow nothing to continue to wait. But Arad Doman is not a good position to defend an incursion from the Blight. Thats a Seanchan offensive only.

 

The Arad Domon army is there, according to Rand's comments, to do three things. One, loom threateningly over the Seanchan, and possibly wipe them out, if nessasary. Two, restore order to Arad Domon. Three, prepare for the beginning of Tarmon Gaidon.

 

The look is to be against the Seanchan to provide scare reasons... for actual attack purposes it doesn't matter where they are, there are roughly 3000 Wise Ones and maybe 400 Asha'men there to move them about, should it become nessasary. That and to place an army in Saldaea would have been stupid politically.

 

I doubt the Seanchan/Aes Sedai struggle would settle into a stalemate. With no outside interference, (ie from Rand) the Seanchan seriously outgun the Aes Sedai, in numbers, both of soldiers and channellers. Speaking of which ...

 

No, they don't. Including novices there are roughly 1,700 channelers in Tar Valon. Elaida ordered the guard increased to 50,000 several books back, following the failures at the Black Tower and Dumei's Wells, and there are around 30,000 soldiers with the rebels... probably more, given they spent all that time just sitting around in Murandy, and that count precedes that. In addition there are angreal and sa'angreal in the White Tower which should not be ignored.

 

The Seanchan, on the other hand, will be only able to launch a force of maybe 12,000 people (the assault is being carried out by to'raken, of which there is only 1000 with the corenne. Each to'raken can carry a dozen passangers, according to the guide). Assuming they send a reasonably large amount of damane (my guess, 1000, but lets say 2000 to be kind) along with sul'dam (2,500--some to take control of newly leashed Aes Sedai, but not too many though, it'd be a waste of space) that leaves 8,000 troops.

 

If anything it should be the Seanchan that should be swept aside. The reason they wont be is threefold. One, the element of surprise. They will land in the city and disperse before they can be engaged as one group. The nature of that sort of warfare does limit the effectiveness of the numbers. Two, The Aes Sedai forces are split, and opposed, and whilst the rebels will almost certainly fight with the Tower, it wont be organised and there will still be distrust present. Three, experience. The Seanchan have planned this assault, and their damane are used to warfare. The majority of channelers on the side of the light are either novices, or bound by the oaths and therefore not particularily experienced in this sort of warfare. Likely many of the ones in the Tower itself will be leashed in the early days of the fight (here's hoping Elaida will be one, though i think it more likely she will remain free, but screw up badly)

 

In fact i suspect at first the Seanchan will come very, very close to winning. I think Egwene will be captured and Elaida will break down. The battle will seem nearly lost... then Gawyn will free Egwene, and she will rally the rebels. i think this for two reasons. One, someone needs to get Egwene free of the Tower... that wont be Gawyn, he might be romantic enough to challange the Aes Sedai, and try, but he wouldn't succeed. And the Aes sedai wouldn't let her go, for all the work she's done, they still arn't at that stage. No, i think it will be the Seanchan... she will be captured in the initial attack. Then once Gawyn frees her (many dreams indicate that Gawyn will be needed to save her from something, and given that only one book remains i think it will likely be this one.) She will take things into her own hands, going and gathering the rebels she will lead a counter--attack staving off defeat of the Tower Aes Sedai that remain free after Elaida's blunders. Egwene wont bother arresting Elaida, she'll just start issuing orders, and they'll be followed.

 

Slowly the tide of the battle will change. The Seanchan will be forced back, but the disposition in the city, and the likely fractured nature of Tower forces will mean that total victory is not possible. Skirmishes will be fought, but nothing achieved. By this time Egwene will be firmly in charge of those Tower sister who remained unleashed.

 

I think it is here that the Trolloc attack will begin.

 

I suspect that Tuon will never give him that assurance, and the treaty would be no more than a mutual non-aggression pact. Rand has already demonstrated a willingness to accomodate the idea of damane to get his treaty (by sending the sul'dam and damane with Semirhage back). I'm not saying Rand would come out and say "Sure, attack the White Tower, I don't care." I'm saying by taking the heat off the Seanchan, he'll unintentionally allow it. I doubt Tuon is going to disclose her plans to him. She'll probably just agree that they won't fight until Rand's people until after Tar'mon Gaidon, and then jaunt off to Tar Valon, which is not under Rand's nominal or actual control. And, intentional or not, if that happens, Egwene is gonna be PISSED at Rand. Her reactions to him have never been rational, and the Seanchan involvement would multiply that a hundred fold.

 

I disagree. He wont make her release the damane she has, but he will insist she stop capturing more... it would be part of the non-aggresion pact. Tuon will reluctantly agree, given her recent experiences, which will prove, if not that she shouldn't leash them, that she can live with a ceasefire until after the Last Battle. and the weight of the evidence he will lay out before her of the danger the Light faces, and inform him of the attack already taking place. He will demand she stop it, which she will agree to.

[RobertAlexWillis]

"Three, prepare for the beginning of Tarmon Gaidon."

 

Preparing for Tar'mon Gaidon, and deploying to repel an assault from the Blight are two different things. Rand has said repeatedly that he is preparing for Tar'mon Gaidon by uniting the nations behind him. You are entirely correct that deploying a force inside inside Saldaea would be politically inept. Unless it rode in with Davram Bashere at it's head.

 

"there are roughly 3000 Wise Ones"

 

I'm curious as to how you reached that figure ... nothing says every clan has the same number of channeling Wise Ones.

 

"Including novices there are roughly 1,700 channelers in Tar Valon."

 

What? That number might ... MIGHT be close if you included all the rebels outside the walls. And if you think novices with a few months of embracing the source and Sisters who can't channel as a weapon until they know that they are in danger will match battle-trained damane at anything less than 5 to 1 ratio, you're out of your gourd. (I mean that in the most friendly way possible.)

 

"Elaida ordered the guard increased to 50,000 several books back"

 

Nothing says that this has been accomplished yet, and if the Aes Sedai are pinned down, one tenth of the damane could grind that 50,000 to dog meat without breathing hard.

 

"and there are around 30,000 soldiers with the rebels"

 

The key there is with the rebels. Outside the walls.

 

The only way the Aes Sedai even a CHANCE of holding their own is if the rebels and the Tower somehow act in concert. The Seanchan attack could well force them to do so, under Egwene's leadership, as I have stated in previous posts (and I don't think we disagree on that particular point). What I still don't see is a benefit for the Shadow in attacking at that point. The longer the Shadow waits for the confrontation to start, the better its position. Rand will have to bring about Tar'mon Gaidon himself by breaking the seals. The Shadow won't start that battle.

[Dionysus]

A large part of the Shadow's planning has been to create a division in the White Tower. While splitting the White Tower into two has prevented the Aes Sedai from preparing for T'G, it's presumably essential for an attack against the White Tower as well. We see this in KoD during the Forsaken meeting when Aran'gar and Mesaana are arguing over whether the tower will stay divided for their plans to come to fruition.

 

With a Seanchan attack against the White Tower, the Rebel Aes Sedai will have no choice but to unite with the White Tower to repel this attack. 5 or 6 books of Forsaken work to give the Seanchan a tiny little window where half the forces are outside the White Tower seems like an immense waste of efforts.

 

There's no indication that the Seanchan could even launch much of an offensive against a combined AS force. Elaida had the guard increased to 50000, it's probably fairly close to that number now. There are 200 sisters in the tower, and whatever novices/accepted while not war machines can be used in circles. Taim also will be in the tower at this point, with perhaps as many as 50 Asha'man.

 

Outside, the rebel Aes Sedai have 50000 troops, not 30000 (Gawyn estimates 25000 in each camp), 300 Aes Sedai, and 1000+ novices.

 

I think you over estimate the number of Damane the Seanchan have. They had 200+ in Ebou Dar (WH, News in a Cloth Sack). They captured 200 Shaido, although they still need to be trained. They probably gained some through their conquered territories, although with the escape of the Kin it is much lower than it could have been. Plus whatever they have stationed around the country, and we see from Ituralde/Mat that their garrisons don't have mass numbers of Damane from anything we have seen. 1500 seems like a more reasonable number of Damane in total than what will be sent to the White Tower. I'd suspect 750 will be launched against the Aes Sedai which will still provide them with enough to defend their forces in Arad Doman/Illian while waiting for the Shaido reinforcements. As Luckers said, 12000 troops can be brought, 2000 are used up with Damane/Sul'dam, another 1000 with the 'pilots' (I forget the name of the people who fly the To'Raken), which leaves a 9000 troop invading force.

 

While this force may cause havoc on a divided White Tower, it is unlikely to wreak havoc on a unified tower... And just where does the shadow's extensive efforts come into play here? They spent the past 5 books making sure the towers stay divided, it just doesn't make sense to me that it was all for a couple seconds headstart for the Seanchan.

 

A simultaneous shadowspawn attack against the rebel Aes Sedai prevents them from helping the White Tower, and gives them the perfect opportunity to invade the White Tower afterwards, afterall they have Taim inside to open the front door.

[RobertAlexWillis]

"While splitting the White Tower into two has prevented the Aes Sedai from preparing for T'G, it's presumably essential for an attack against the White Tower as well. We see this in KoD during the Forsaken meeting when Aran'gar and Mesaana are arguing over whether the tower will stay divided for their plans to come to fruition."

 

Why does their plan HAVE to be to attack? Why isn't it just to prevent the Aes Sedai from attacking before the Dark One is ready? How is waiting at this point not to the Shadow's advantage? What can the Shadow do WITH Tar Valon that they can't do WITHOUT it?

[Dionysus]

I just want to clarify something.

 

You believe the Seanchan are going to attack the White Tower and the Dark One is using this attack as a means to keep two of their enemies preoccupied against each other while they launch their campaign against other regions. Some later point in time, when the DO wishes, they will start their attack against the White Tower, or perhaps just pass it by and force them to either sit in the tower being useless or leave the Tower to fight them on a different battlefield, one where they arent attempting to breach a fortress.

 

Correct me if I am wrong, I probably am.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I believe the Seanchan are going to attack the White Tower because they believe that all channelers should be leashed. I believe that the Shadow just wants everyone to be fighting everyone else, for as long as they can keep eveyone fighting, so that they can get the Dark One completely free. If that happens, then he can kick everyones butt for them.

 

 

I don't think the Dark One cares one way or the other about Tar Valon, as long as he can keep them from helping the Dragon seal him away again. The Dark One's battle isn't a battle of land and borders, he just wants out of jail. Some of his FOLLOWERS want land and subjects, but he is reining them in with his conveniently insane and totally unambitious Nae'blis, Moridin. All he wants is chaos chaos chaos until he is out. And to piss off every one at Rand, so they won't help him lock the DO back up.

[Luckers]

Preparing for Tar'mon Gaidon, and deploying to repel an assault from the Blight are two different things.

 

The size of the army, and its location, puts it in a prime position to react to an incursion from the Blight... well, as prime a position as it can be, short of invading the Borderland nations. And whilst its waiting it can achieve those other goals i said.

 

I'm curious as to how you reached that figure ... nothing says every clan has the same number of channeling Wise Ones.

 

Which is why i said 'roughly'. Nevertheless, distribution of channelers wouldn't be that skewed between the clans. One may have less then the Shaido, but another would have more, and it'd equal out fairly well, and i doubt the number difference would ever be too high. If the Shaido have 500, that means there is going to be somewhere around 6000 female channelers altogether born to the aiel. It may be lower then that, but not by much more then abou 500... but then it may be higher. So it'll probably be somewhere between 5500 and 6500... for the sake of convenience in argument, im assuming 6000, but whether its one or the other, it isn't going to make much difference.

 

What? That number might ... MIGHT be close if you included all the rebels outside the walls. And if you think novices with a few months of embracing the source and Sisters who can't channel as a weapon until they know that they are in danger will match battle-trained damane at anything less than 5 to 1 ratio, you're out of your gourd. (I mean that in the most friendly way possible.)

 

All of which i acknowledged and addressed in my post...

 

Nothing says that this has been accomplished yet, and if the Aes Sedai are pinned down, one tenth of the damane could grind that 50,000 to dog meat without breathing hard.

 

Again, i acknowledged and addressed this in my post... so im not really sure what you are getting at...

 

The key there is with the rebels. Outside the walls.

 

The only way the Aes Sedai even a CHANCE of holding their own is if the rebels and the Tower somehow act in concert.

 

I'm sorry... i dont mean to sound snippy... but did you read my post?

 

There are 200 sisters in the tower, and whatever novices/accepted

 

According to Egwene the amount of Novices/Accepted have increased in the tower too, i suspect altogether they number around 200 too.

 

Taim also will be in the tower at this point, with perhaps as many as 50 Asha'man.

 

I rather doubt Taim himself will be there. Otherwise you are right.

 

Outside, the rebel Aes Sedai have 50000 troops, not 30000 (Gawyn estimates 25000 in each camp), 300 Aes Sedai, and 1000+ novices.

 

Ah, thanks, i missed that. Though i suspected it would be the case.

 

Why does their plan HAVE to be to attack? Why isn't it just to prevent the Aes Sedai from attacking before the Dark One is ready? How is waiting at this point not to the Shadow's advantage? What can the Shadow do WITH Tar Valon that they can't do WITHOUT it?

 

Again, the shadows need to destroy Tar Valon has NOTHING to do with them needing the city... they need only to destroy it. A force of over a thousand channelers, with access to angreal, ter'angreal and sa'angreal and 80,000 troops under the command of one of the great Captains (which will be the situation after the Aes Sedai unite following the seanchan attack). The Shadow simply cannot afford to ignore that sort of force... add to that the defensibility of their position within Tar Valon...

 

The shadow needs to focus on defeating Rand, which means they need to defeat the Aes Sedai now rather then later. Likely the desire to get their hands on the angreal and so forth will play a part too.

[RobertAlexWillis]

"Again, the shadows need to destroy Tar Valon has NOTHING to do with them needing the city... they need only to destroy it. A force of over a thousand channelers, with access to angreal, ter'angreal and sa'angreal and 80,000 troops under the command of one of the great Captains (which will be the situation after the Aes Sedai unite following the seanchan attack). The Shadow simply cannot afford to ignore that sort of force... add to that the defensibility of their position within Tar Valon..."

 

 

From the point of view of the servants of the Dark One, this is precisely the case. All the way up to, but not including, Moridin.

 

My assessment of the Shadow's strategy is based on the idea that Shai'tan is pulling the wool over his own people's eyes, insano-death Ishy excepted. Well, and Shaidar Haran probably knows too, but he's so tightly controlled he might as well be the avatar of the Dark One. The Forsaken, etc, want to take over land, rule people, etc, all the normal motivations of the power hungry. I think Shai'tan wants to destroy and rebuild the universe, not take it over and let his followers rule under him. Break time, and remake the Pattern in his own image. Jordan has said he's essentially a control freak. The ultimate method of control is to destroy everything but yourself. Then you control everything. Moridin/Ishamael loves this plan, because he is insane. That's why he stays on top no matter how much he fails.

 

Power-wrought walls are nothing to the Lord of the Grave. Let the whole tower link and pull out all their angreal and sa'angreal, they can't match a free Shai'tan. Elayne assessed the flow through the female Choedan Kal as greater than the united Tower with all it's power enhancing tools could handle. And the only access key we know about is broken. The point of all this, is that the Dark One's strategy is to basically sit in the Blight making menacing noises, but doing nothing, letting everyone keep fighting amongst themselves, killing each other, thinking they still have time to consolidate the world under THEIR faction's leadership, until BOOM, Shai'tan is totally ready, pops out, and balefires the world (so to speak, I don't know if the use of actual balefire would be necessary, but Shai'tan can probably generate enough free.) So, basically, I see the Shadow as sitting off to one side yelling "fight fight!" to everyone else, laughing insanely knowing that a BIG surprise is about to pop out. That's what "let the Lord of Chaos rule" boils down to.

 

Only two things can disrupt this plan. The first is a premature attack by the Shadow forcing the forces of Light to unite NOW. To prevent this, The Dark One is keeping all his people on a short leash. Moridin told them at their last meeting, "Pass orders to your Friends of the Dark. Any report of Trollocs or Myrdraal outside the Blight is to be handed to me as soon as you receive it. The Time of Return is coming soon. No one is allowed to go adventuring on their own any longer." (Knife of Dreams, At the Gardens, p.147)

 

The second is the forces of Light uniting on their own behind one leader, or at minimum, into a cooperative coalition. Preventing this has been the reason for the Shadows multiple assignments to create division and rivalry between the different factions. Mesaana split the Tower wide open. Halima was tasked with keeping the rebels rebellious. Taim (undoubtedly a Darkfriend, quite possibly a modern Chosen) has split the Black Tower. The Seanchan have split the whole land. Differing versions of the Kraethon Cycle (likely planted by Ishy about a thousand years ago) are likely to cause a serious misunderstanding between the Tuon and Rand. At the present, it is VERY unlikely that the forces of Light will come together on their own. [As a side not, this is one reason why Moridin wants Mat and Perrin dead so badly. Ta'veren are very good at making the unlikely happen.]

 

I think Rand might have figured this out. Thats why he's in a hurry to get everyone behind him (or at least beside him), and break the seals, forcing a confrontation BEFORE the Dark One has his one shot smackdown fully prepared. He will manage to do so, with the help of his ta'veren buddies (and his own hefty ta'verenness (is that a word?). Then the LIGHT will take the battle to the Dark. Rand will break the seals to precipitate the Battle while they still have a chance.

 

Incidentally, my points that seemed to be repeating your points were directed at demonstrating the Seanchan's military supremacy in the battle with the White Tower. With no truce, I think the Seanchan win, hands down. Your post put the numbers at 1700 divided channelers for the Aes Sedai, many of whom are novices, with 100,000 divided troops. You also had 1000 to 2000 damane for the Seanchan, each controlled by a sul'dam specifically trained for battle, accompanied by about 8000 troops. You then said "If anything it should be the Seanchan that should be swept aside." You went on to explain the reasons they wouldn't be, but concluded that it would be a close fought thing, with the Seanchan eventually in the worse position. My contention is that the Seanchan, with those numbers (which I totally agree with) will mop the floor with the Aes Sedai. I contended that the damane/sul'dam teams would be able to nix the Aes Sedai channelers (because of their relative inexperience in battle, the high numbers of novices, and the fact that they start the battle divided) at a 5 to 1 ratio, meaning that 500 damane (potentially only 1/4 of their force) would be sufficient for dealing with them. The remaining 500 to 1500 channelers would then EASILY grind the 100,000 troops (also divided) into channeled dog meat. The Aes Sedai, because of the Oaths, have come up short in every channeling contest. Not that the Oaths prevent them from protecting themselves, but because the Oaths prevent all but a few "adventurous" ones from being in danger often enough to have combat experience with the Power. Whatever it is that stops the Seanchan will be saving the Aes Sedai's collective behind, because on their own, divided, they don't stand a chance. Even united they would have a rough go of it.

 

Wow .... that turned out long.

[Luckers]

On your theory reguarding the shadow.

 

Firstly i agree that Shai'tan's plan is the destruction of the Wheel, and i agree that Moridin has realised this. That being said i dont see him sitting around in the manner you've described. For one, there is only one book left. Secondly, it would make sense to the Dark Ones plans to have his people in control of the world. He wont gain freedom without their aid--recall the War of the Shadow started originally when a group of his followers tried to free him completely, and Lews Therin stopped them. Thirdly, the threat that the Light might unify and act to stop him would be more then enough reason to instigate a war.

 

No, he does want to win the war physically... he does want the Shadow to succeed.

 

Only two things can disrupt this plan. The first is a premature attack by the Shadow forcing the forces of Light to unite NOW.

 

The Light is in a position of being almost totally unified. At the moment only five significant forces exist. Rand, the Rebels, the Tower, the Seanchan and the Borderlanders.

 

The Rebels and the Tower will unify very soon. Egwene has the respect of the tower know, and when the Seanchan attack and she takes charge--which seems more then probable, given Elaida's state, both sides will fall in line.

 

That leaves four. Rand has been pushing for an Alliance with the Seanchan, and indications are he'll get it. Tuon isn't stupid, and there is sense in it.

 

Then there were three. Part of Rand's alliance with the Seanchan will almost undoubtedly be the ceaseation of hostilities against other forces, including the capturing of damane. This will include calling a ceasefire with the Aes Sedai.

 

That leaves only the Borderlanders, and i have suspicions about how they will come to join. The Forsaken, who know the inner workings of all these groups, will be more then aware of how close things are to total unification. Waiting longer will merel endanger their cause. Choas is no longer being orchastrated, and now Rand is bringing order back--it makes no sense for the Forsaken to withold beginning Tarmon Gaidon any longer, the more they wait the more they lose. And once begun, the Aes Sedai MUST be taken out quickly, because the Shadow cannot afford to have them as a force whilst trying to fight Rand.

 

To prevent this, The Dark One is keeping all his people on a short leash. Moridin told them at their last meeting, "Pass orders to your Friends of the Dark. Any report of Trollocs or Myrdraal outside the Blight is to be handed to me as soon as you receive it. The Time of Return is coming soon. No one is allowed to go adventuring on their own any longer."

 

All we saw was Moridin issueing an order after some unknown sent a hundred thousand trollocs to their deaths. Its not significant... if anything its an understated reaction to what occured.

 

As for your comments on the force distribution in the Tower... no, the Seanchan will not win out of hand. The initial attack will be bad. The Tower sisters, unprepared and not particularily talented will be taken hard. The city guard, deployed throughout the city, will be badly placed to react. And yes, were it just them i suspect the Seanchan would win.

 

But you are ignoring the Rebels. Unlike the Tower sisters the Rebels have plans prepared for coming under attack. Every channeler is to form a circle as quickly as they can, including the novices and accepted. That means that at within maybe 20 minutes of the attack beginning the Rebels will be martialling a force of 1,350 channelers. Channelers who, i'll remind you, have access to Forsaken level training. The armies of the Rebels are martialled, unified and prepared. If they are attacked in the initial attack, which they may not be, its possible the Seanchan will think them some randoms assaulting the city, but even if they are... 4,000 soldiers and at most a 1,000 damane against a well prepared force of 50,000 soldiers and 1,350 channelers, who will be in links (which the seanchan cannot do, it would seem, so remember the significance of that... a linked couple must be shielded at a level of strength exceeding the strength of the link, and the Seanchan will be on orders to try and capture the channelers...)

 

I'm sorry, but the Seanchan will be swept aside by the Rebels. Following this the Rebels will lead a counter-attack against the Seanchan in Tar Valon, coming just in time to stop the Seanchan achieving total victory. The only reason at that stage that the Seanchan wont be wiped out completely is the nature of fighting within a city, and Egwenes concern for innocent people.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Firstly i agree that Shai'tan's plan is the destruction of the Wheel, and i agree that Moridin has realised this. That being said i dont see him sitting around in the manner you've described. For one, there is only one book left.

 

All that means is that the Dark One is almost ready. And that Rand will force the issue prematurely.

 

Secondly, it would make sense to the Dark Ones plans to have his people in control of the world. He wont gain freedom without their aid--recall the War of the Shadow started originally when a group of his followers tried to free him completely, and Lews Therin stopped them.

 

The Dark One didn't have three thousand years to work on a Bore that time. I think the Bore is larger under the seals than it was before the Breaking. He's waiting until he won't need any help to break free.

 

Thirdly, the threat that the Light might unify and act to stop him would be more then enough reason to instigate a war.

 

The quickest way to force a splintered enemy to unite is to present them with a common enemy. You use this principle in your argument for the Aes Sedai reuniting in the face of the Seanchan. Can't you see it applies here too?

 

The Light is in a position of being almost totally unified. At the moment only five significant forces exist.

 

I'm honestly not trying to be rude, but I almost fell over laughing when I read this statement. FIVE factions is "almost totally unified"!!!!??????

 

The Rebels and Tower reuniting is going to happen. But I doubt it will be pleasant or easy. Regarding the Seanchan truce, and an agreement not to collar Aes Sedai or attack the Tower ... I think you are WAY overestimating Tuon's pliability. She shown absolutely ZERO wavering on her opinions and intentions regarding marath'damane. I think the Borderlanders will be relatively easy to bring into Rand's alliance, RJ has said that we will see Hurin again (we know how he feels about Rand), and implied that he is involved in the Borderlander's marching, but I think there is a surprise there too ... I think Demandred is with the Borderlanders. We can get into that another time.

 

 

Let me say something else here ... since Rand is going to win, the Dark One's plan will fail. His PLAN is to hold out until he is free, and Rand will BEAT that plan by unifying everyone in spite of the chaos sown. Its the only plan that makes sense for him ... as you said:

 

Thirdly, the threat that the Light might unify and act to stop him would be more then enough reason to instigate a war.

 

And he instigated it. Between his enemies.

 

 

Now ... you raised some valid points I had not considered about the rebel's linking plan. That would put the "heft" of the novices numbers into the control of experienced sisters. That makes it a much more even (and bloodier) fight. One which the Aes Sedai have a chance of winning.

 

Still, the casualties that such a conflict would cause (especially in the intra-city fighting scenario you describe, and I agree with) would more than justify the Shadow's sitting it out on the sidelines. What does the Shadow gain by doing nothing? Lots of dead enemies.

 

Also, given their past behavior, what is the Shadow likely to think the victor, whether Aes Sedai or Seanchan, or such a battle would do next. Come against the Shadow? Why? The Blight is quiet. Either would turn to trying to control and/or conquer Rand al'Thor. This is the way the Forsaken and the Shadow think. The plan based on that thinking will fail, because that's not what would happen, but all of the Shadow's lack of action points to that. Moridin didn't give the others any orders to do ANYTHING preparatory to a large scale battle, other than report on those few Trollocs and Myrdraal (few being a relative term here) that had escaped his immediate control. And warned them against independent action. His only other instructions were to kill Perrin and Mat, two ta'veren who were working successfully with the Seanchan, among other things. That still seems aimed at preventing a truce. The last thing we have with a Forsaken and Rand is an attempt to, among other things, ruin his attempt at a truce. And the "let the Lord of Chaos rule" order is still in effect, as of the second to last paragraph of the last book. There are ZERO signs of change in the Shadows strategy, which has been, since Moridin's re-birth, consistently do nothing but try to keep their enemies at each other's throats. With only one book left, the Shadow runs out of time, Rand forces the issue too soon, and the Dark One loses. That's one key to this ... we know, because this is a story, that whatever the Dark One's plan is, it is a losing plan.

[Rumor]

Luckers stated "I think the foundation is being laid by RJ for them to be changing their main function... Pevara and the others are doing that. "

 

I agree...it is not clear to me what the specific purpose of these reds with Taim's Ashaman will be (as in will it be good or bad), but it seems clear that the way is being paved for Reds to actually have a very important and very different role in the future (post-TG). It has been illustrated repeatedly how a "people"'s purpose can evolve over time until it is nothing like where it started (e.g. the Aiel)...the feel I get from what the Reds are doing is that they'll end up with a clear purpose that will be nothing near to what they currently have.

 

R

[RobertAlexWillis]

I agree as well that a drastic change in their purpose is on the horizon. This is speculation, but since they are beginning a policy of bonding male channelers, it could follow that they will become an Ajah that researches and develops methods and weaves with linked channeling. That would be a dramatic reversal, the Reds becoming the Men Ajah.

[Luckers]

All that means is that the Dark One is almost ready. And that Rand will force the issue prematurely.

 

Act how? A wonderful fantasy that cannot come true because the Dark One is still locked on the other side of the Bore, even without the seal... even if he's doubled or trippled the size of the bore.

 

And prematurely? There is one book left.

 

The Dark One didn't have three thousand years to work on a Bore that time. I think the Bore is larger under the seals than it was before the Breaking. He's waiting until he won't need any help to break free.

 

Firstly, if he could widen the bore like that, he didn't need to break the seals. Secondly, all evidence points to the fact that he needs others to open the bore for him. Thirdly there has been no evidence that he has widened the bore, and evidence against it. I'm sorry its pure conjecture that goes completely against the actions we've seen him take.

 

The quickest way to force a splintered enemy to unite is to present them with a common enemy. You use this principle in your argument for the Aes Sedai reuniting in the face of the Seanchan. Can't you see it applies here too?

 

And this was a valid argument while they were remaining splintered, but they are now moving towards unification. Egwene is gaining more support from the Tower by day. Rand is approaching Tuon. The Forsaken manipulating groups are being removed. The whole idea that the Dark would sit back trying to subtly manipulate at this stage in the game is absurd. When your enemies start banding together you dont sit around and let them do it.

 

I'm honestly not trying to be rude, but I almost fell over laughing when I read this statement. FIVE factions is "almost totally unified"!!!!??????

 

It amuses me that you find that funny, because yes, thats exactly what it is. Within three moves all the forces of the Light will be in alliance with each other.

 

1. Seanchan attack Tar Valon. Aes Sedai unite.

2. Rand reaches alliance with Tuon. Rand, Aes Sedai and Seanchan united.

3. Rand approached Borderlanders... well, i dont think that'll happen easily... i have my suspicions about the Aes Sedai with the borderlanders... which is irelevant to this.

 

The Light is on the edge of being a totally unified force. Literally.

 

The Rebels and Tower reuniting is going to happen. But I doubt it will be pleasant or easy. Regarding the Seanchan truce, and an agreement not to collar Aes Sedai or attack the Tower ... I think you are WAY overestimating Tuon's pliability. She shown absolutely ZERO wavering on her opinions and intentions regarding marath'damane. I think the Borderlanders will be relatively easy to bring into Rand's alliance, RJ has said that we will see Hurin again (we know how he feels about Rand), and implied that he is involved in the Borderlander's marching, but I think there is a surprise there too ... I think Demandred is with the Borderlanders. We can get into that another time.

 

Sure... zero wavering... but wait, didn't she travel with Three Aes Sedai for months without insisting they be collared? Didn't she fail to make any fuss when the sul'dam started learning. Your right, she's being completely unreasonable about it.

 

Tuon is not an idiot, nor is she blinded by hatred about channelers. She believes they should be leashed, but that doesn't mean that she doesn't percieve the danger presented by the dark. Rand will go to her with an offer of Alliance. The nature of an Alliance is the immediate cease-fire of all hostilities between them. and if you think that Rand wont include the leashing of channelers as a hostility your mistaken. Oh, i agree, he wont demand they be freed or anything else, but he will demand that.

 

And Tuon will agree. She won't love them, but she will allow them to go free while she deals with bigger issues.

 

As for the Borderlanders... i strongly disagree. There is a trump card there and i cant wait to see it played. Its simply taken far too long for Rand to go and meet them, plus we know that Bashere and Tenobia are likely going to die (lots of visions suggesting nasty stuff happening to Bashere. Plus the whole Broken Crown on Perrin vision) My belief is that the thirteen Aes Sedai with the Borderlanders are Black Ajah, and that that will be the second time he is hurt by women who can channel. He will be saved by Perrin, i suspect, and the Borderlanders brought in as a part of that.

 

And he instigated it. Between his enemies.

 

Only now his enemies are moving towards peace. The worst they are going to get to has been achieved with the exception of the Seanchan attack on the Tower. Now they are steadily getting stronger, more unified, and more prepared. The Shadow would be insanely stupid to let this continue. And that one exception of the Seanchan and the Tower... it too will reach an impasse.

 

Still, the casualties that such a conflict would cause (especially in the intra-city fighting scenario you describe, and I agree with) would more than justify the Shadow's sitting it out on the sidelines. What does the Shadow gain by doing nothing? Lots of dead enemies.

 

Provided the fighting stays fierce. It wont. Intra-city fighting settles into skirmishes. The seanchan wont wont more overt fighting then that because they simply do not have the strength to take on the combined forces of the Aes Sedai head on, and the Aes Sedai wont want it to escalate because of the innocent citizens of Tar Valon. It will fall into a game of intelligent warcraft, not hack and slash. If you dont believe me, go look at what happened in the world wars when it came to fighting in a city.

 

So, the death rate decreases to a point which is negligable and so is whatever percievable gain the Shadow might have in waiting. Meanwhile elsewhere Rand is gathering his forces, reaching alliances, getting prepared. The longer the Shadow waits, the more prepared the light will be, and once the war starts the shadow cannot afford to ignore Tar Valon.

 

Also, given their past behavior, what is the Shadow likely to think the victor, whether Aes Sedai or Seanchan, or such a battle would do next. Come against the Shadow? Why? The Blight is quiet. Either would turn to trying to control and/or conquer Rand al'Thor.

 

Moridin is not stupid. He knows that Egwene and Rand are old friends, and he knows that Aes Sedai have been bonding Asha'men. He knows if the Aes Sedai win, then it wont be long before they reach an alliance of some form with Rand. And it seems likely he also knows that Rand is seeking an alliance with the Seanchan. Its possible he even knows about Tuon and Mat.

 

The last thing we have with a Forsaken and Rand is an attempt to, among other things, ruin his attempt at a truce. And the "let the Lord of Chaos rule" order is still in effect, as of the second to last paragraph of the last book. There are ZERO signs of change in the Shadows strategy, which has been, since Moridin's re-birth, consistently do nothing but try to keep their enemies at each other's throats.

 

That rule will only be retained while the choas is increasing... its not any more, with every second more order is brought to the world. Arad Domon is being settled down, Rand is approaching the Seanchan, Egwene will soon be in charge of a unified tower... the Shadow simply cannot afford to wait any longer.

[Kaznen]

Something that hasn't been brought up is that channlers can sense shadow spawn. There is no way for trollocs to just "appear" in TV. If they defeated Lan and were marching from the blight, the AS would hear about it long before the Trollocs arrive. And they can't do a slow buildup throught the waygate either.

 

First, where would they hide until it was time to strike? TV is a lot smaller and more densely populated the TR.

 

Second, they already tried that and died horrible deaths. Remember in tEotW when they came across the Trollocs who tried to use the waygates in the Ways?

 

Third, even without wardings the AS and AM would know they were there. If the AM warders are at inns through out the city it would provide decent grid. And AS are being sent out of the tower constantly to force citicins to work to clear the trash and tear down the harbor walls to remove the chains. Remember, they can sense shadowspawn. And while one the forsaken could ward a couple they couldn't ward a whole army.

[Luckers]

I think Lan, having been harrassing the Trolloc horde all the way since the borderlands, will arrive ahead of them and warn the city.

[Kaznen]

I think Lan' date=' having been harrassing the Trolloc horde all the way since the borderlands, will arrive ahead of them and warn the city.[/quote']

 

Either way, they can't launch a surprise attack on TV.

 

But I was thinking of pigeons leaving Fal Moran, or whatever the name of the city in Shiener is, sent by AS agents.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Act how? A wonderful fantasy that cannot come true because the Dark One is still locked on the other side of the Bore, even without the seal... even if he's doubled or trippled the size of the bore.

 

And prematurely? There is one book left.

 

I believe there is only one book left because Rand will force the issue by breaking the remaining seals before the Dark One's timetable is complete. SO it is only premature in the sens that the Dark One could do more with more time. Remember, the PATTERN controlled the timing of Rand's release into the weave, not the Dark One.

 

Firstly, if he could widen the bore like that, he didn't need to break the seals. Secondly, all evidence points to the fact that he needs others to open the bore for him. Thirdly there has been no evidence that he has widened the bore, and evidence against it. I'm sorry its pure conjecture that goes completely against the actions we've seen him take.

 

What actions has he taken indicating that he plans a physical attack? ALL of the orders we have seen only involve increasing chaose. He HAS been testing his PERSONAL powers (fixing the seasons, sending ripples through reality). These are evidence of his increasesd ability to touch the world. That is what I mean by "widening" the Bore. It is explicitly stated that he needs the help of others to fully escape. I just don't see how taking Tar Valon, or any other physical location, is the kind of help he requires. How would taking Tar Valon help him escape?

 

And this was a valid argument while they were remaining splintered, but they are now moving towards unification. Egwene is gaining more support from the Tower by day. Rand is approaching Tuon. The Forsaken manipulating groups are being removed. The whole idea that the Dark would sit back trying to subtly manipulate at this stage in the game is absurd. When your enemies start banding together you dont sit around and let them do it.

 

The only reason we know that they are moving together is because we know that this is a story, and that Rand is going to win. The last PLANS we saw any Forsaken execute WERE still aimed at keeping the truce from occurring (Semirhage?) I'm talking about the Dark One's PLAN, not what is actually occurring. Or do you think he ANTICIPATED Egwene entering the Tower? Mesaana was pretty pissed about it as I recall, and relieved that the rebellion was continuing. Do you think he ANTICIPATED that Semirhage would fail and be captured? I'm saying that his PLAN is to wait, and the reason Rand will win, is that his PLAN is failing. And when your enemies start banding together, you don't give them an additional reason, when doing so would gain you nothing. I have yet to hear how taking Tar Valon will help the Dark One get out.

 

 

 

It amuses me that you find that funny, because yes, thats exactly what it is. Within three moves all the forces of the Light will be in alliance with each other.

 

1. Seanchan attack Tar Valon. Aes Sedai unite.

2. Rand reaches alliance with Tuon. Rand, Aes Sedai and Seanchan united.

3. Rand approached Borderlanders... well, i dont think that'll happen easily... i have my suspicions about the Aes Sedai with the borderlanders... which is irelevant to this.

 

The Light is on the edge of being a totally unified force. Literally.

 

I agree that those steps could take place in short chronological order. The thing is, we only know that they will because this is a story. From the Dark One's perspective, they can't seem very likely. Remember, he sees the world in part through his servant's eyes and perspectives. The Forsaken would never willingly make peace with each other, and he sees the rest of the world at least partially in that light. RJ said, referencing the reason why so many Forsaken got a second chance, "Also, while the Forsaken themselves have realized that these primitives have discovered how to do things with the Power that they themselves cannot, or perhaps can once they learn how but never dreamed of doing until they found that the weaves existed here-and-now, they still think of people in the here-and-now as primitives, and their attitudes filter through to the Dark One, who believes that his people from the age of Legends are in all practical ways better -- for which read better trained, more capable, and thus better able to serve him efficiently and effectively -- than the people of the present time." (Emphasis added, RJ's answer to Tor's Question of the Week #15, early 2004) His plans are not going to work, but that doesn't change them from being his plans.

 

Sure... zero wavering... but wait, didn't she travel with Three Aes Sedai for months without insisting they be collared? Didn't she fail to make any fuss when the sul'dam started learning. Your right, she's being completely unreasonable about it.

 

Um ... she tried to re-collar them herself, until Mat confiscated and buried the a'dam, and then she would never address them except by their damane names, and would not acknowledge their direct statements up to the last day she was in Mat's camp. She viewed the sul'dam as marath'damane as soon as they admitted they would channel.

 

Posted: e910Sunday564110 Post subject:

 

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Quote:

All that means is that the Dark One is almost ready. And that Rand will force the issue prematurely.

 

 

Act how? A wonderful fantasy that cannot come true because the Dark One is still locked on the other side of the Bore, even without the seal... even if he's doubled or trippled the size of the bore.

 

And prematurely? There is one book left.

 

Quote:

The Dark One didn't have three thousand years to work on a Bore that time. I think the Bore is larger under the seals than it was before the Breaking. He's waiting until he won't need any help to break free.

 

 

Firstly, if he could widen the bore like that, he didn't need to break the seals. Secondly, all evidence points to the fact that he needs others to open the bore for him. Thirdly there has been no evidence that he has widened the bore, and evidence against it. I'm sorry its pure conjecture that goes completely against the actions we've seen him take.

 

Quote:

The quickest way to force a splintered enemy to unite is to present them with a common enemy. You use this principle in your argument for the Aes Sedai reuniting in the face of the Seanchan. Can't you see it applies here too?

 

 

 

And this was a valid argument while they were remaining splintered, but they are now moving towards unification. Egwene is gaining more support from the Tower by day. Rand is approaching Tuon. The Forsaken manipulating groups are being removed. The whole idea that the Dark would sit back trying to subtly manipulate at this stage in the game is absurd. When your enemies start banding together you dont sit around and let them do it.

 

Quote:

I'm honestly not trying to be rude, but I almost fell over laughing when I read this statement. FIVE factions is "almost totally unified"!!!!??????

 

 

 

It amuses me that you find that funny, because yes, thats exactly what it is. Within three moves all the forces of the Light will be in alliance with each other.

 

1. Seanchan attack Tar Valon. Aes Sedai unite.

2. Rand reaches alliance with Tuon. Rand, Aes Sedai and Seanchan united.

3. Rand approached Borderlanders... well, i dont think that'll happen easily... i have my suspicions about the Aes Sedai with the borderlanders... which is irelevant to this.

 

The Light is on the edge of being a totally unified force. Literally.

 

Quote:

The Rebels and Tower reuniting is going to happen. But I doubt it will be pleasant or easy. Regarding the Seanchan truce, and an agreement not to collar Aes Sedai or attack the Tower ... I think you are WAY overestimating Tuon's pliability. She shown absolutely ZERO wavering on her opinions and intentions regarding marath'damane. I think the Borderlanders will be relatively easy to bring into Rand's alliance, RJ has said that we will see Hurin again (we know how he feels about Rand), and implied that he is involved in the Borderlander's marching, but I think there is a surprise there too ... I think Demandred is with the Borderlanders. We can get into that another time.

 

 

Sure... zero wavering... but wait, didn't she travel with Three Aes Sedai for months without insisting they be collared? Didn't she fail to make any fuss when the sul'dam started learning. Your right, she's being completely unreasonable about it.

 

Tuon is not an idiot, nor is she blinded by hatred about channelers. She believes they should be leashed, but that doesn't mean that she doesn't percieve the danger presented by the dark. Rand will go to her with an offer of Alliance. The nature of an Alliance is the immediate cease-fire of all hostilities between them. and if you think that Rand wont include the leashing of channelers as a hostility your mistaken. Oh, i agree, he wont demand they be freed or anything else, but he will demand that.

 

And Tuon will agree. She won't love them, but she will allow them to go free while she deals with bigger issues.

 

I believe Rand will be more likely to weaken on this issue, not by outright statement, but by default. The treaty can be worded in such a way that it doesn't even touch on the White Tower, and if it only applies to those following Rand, it specifically does not cover them. And although Egwene and Rand are old friends, we know he will "know the wrath of the Amyrlin seat" at some point. I can't think of any issue more likely to come between them than the Seanchan, on which subject we KNOW that Egwene is bordeline irrational.

 

As for the Borderlanders... i strongly disagree. There is a trump card there and i cant wait to see it played. Its simply taken far too long for Rand to go and meet them, plus we know that Bashere and Tenobia are likely going to die (lots of visions suggesting nasty stuff happening to Bashere. Plus the whole Broken Crown on Perrin vision) My belief is that the thirteen Aes Sedai with the Borderlanders are Black Ajah, and that that will be the second time he is hurt by women who can channel. He will be saved by Perrin, i suspect, and the Borderlanders brought in as a part of that.

 

I've thought about that since, and you're right, something bad is going to happen there.

 

Only now his enemies are moving towards peace. The worst they are going to get to has been achieved with the exception of the Seanchan attack on the Tower.

 

Thats a pretty big exception.

 

Provided the fighting stays fierce. It wont. Intra-city fighting settles into skirmishes. The seanchan wont wont more overt fighting then that because they simply do not have the strength to take on the combined forces of the Aes Sedai head on, and the Aes Sedai wont want it to escalate because of the innocent citizens of Tar Valon.

 

Dumai's wells didn't take much time to have heavy casualties. You're right that both sides will not want to drag it out. So they (especially the Seanchan) will throw EVERYTHING into the initial assault. There is GREAT potential for catastrophic casualties in a very short time. If the death rate slows to even a trickle after that, the Shadow still gains time every day that it grinds on.

 

once the war starts the shadow cannot afford to ignore Tar Valon.

 

Why? As a physical location, why? They can kill more channelers with fewer casualties by forcing them to come OUT of the protection of Tar Valon.

 

Moridin is not stupid. He knows that Egwene and Rand are old friends, and he knows that Aes Sedai have been bonding Asha'men. He knows if the Aes Sedai win, then it wont be long before they reach an alliance of some form with Rand. And it seems likely he also knows that Rand is seeking an alliance with the Seanchan. Its possible he even knows about Tuon and Mat.

 

Moridin is not stupid, but you're assuming he KNOWS Egwene is going to win. That seems like a big jump to make. We only know that because we can see her POVs in the story.

 

I'm sure he at least knows about Rand's attempted alliance with the Seanchan, and how did he respond? Semirhage. Not an attack, which would make Rand MORE eager to cement the alliance. In fact he was angry about the one attack that did occur.

 

If he does know about Tuon and Mat, he has specifically ordered Mat killed. Not an attack. An assassination that would increase chaos.

 

Arad Domon is being settled down, Rand is approaching the Seanchan, Egwene will soon be in charge of a unified tower... the Shadow simply cannot afford to wait any longer.

 

We don't know Arad Doman is being settled down. We know Rand sent a force there. No place has simply "settled down" for him in short order yet. And now, for the first time, he is entering a Forsaken's domain without knowing the Forsaken is there. And facing a Great Captain in the field. I doubt Rodel Ituralde is just going to say "Whew, am I glad YOU'RE here, please, take over."

 

Rand is approaching the Seanchan. And Moridin has been doing everything he can to stop it, WITHOUT ATTACKING.

 

You're again assuming Moridin knows that Egwene will win. I don't think he's sure of that at all.

 

Basically, we can't credit the Dark One and Moridin with all the knowledge that we, the readers, have. From their vantage point, it would be better to have any fighting that takes place occur in the Blight, where they have the advantage, and to put off any fighting as long as possible, so that they can do whatever it takes to free Big Darkie. Once he's out, they don't have to plan anything.

[Luckers]

I believe there is only one book left because Rand will force the issue by breaking the remaining seals before the Dark One's timetable is complete. SO it is only premature in the sens that the Dark One could do more with more time. Remember, the PATTERN controlled the timing of Rand's release into the weave, not the Dark One.

 

Yet the only evidence for this you have is your suspicion about the Dark One's plans. EVERYTHING else in the series shows that the Shadow has nothing to wait for, and that the longer they wait the more they risk the Light unifying.

 

What actions has he taken indicating that he plans a physical attack? ALL of the orders we have seen only involve increasing chaose. He HAS been testing his PERSONAL powers (fixing the seasons, sending ripples through reality). These are evidence of his increasesd ability to touch the world. That is what I mean by "widening" the Bore. It is explicitly stated that he needs the help of others to fully escape. I just don't see how taking Tar Valon, or any other physical location, is the kind of help he requires. How would taking Tar Valon help him escape?

 

Last time the bore was unsealed he fought. This time he has ordered his enemies destabalized, and there is evidence of him gathering his Trollocs. There is no evidence that he is widening the bore, or increasing his ability to touch the pattern beyond what he could achieve in the AOL.

 

Taking Tar Valon is nessasary for the destruction of the light, and the destruction of the Light is nessasary for his survival.

 

The only reason we know that they are moving together is because we know that this is a story, and that Rand is going to win

 

Wrong. We have seen both Tuon and Rand angling for a meeting with each other, and we have seen in both a desperation to be ready for Tarmon Gaidon. I agree Tuon's insistance that he must kneel to the Crystal Thrown will be a spanner in the works... but Tuon is not an idiot, they will get past it because they need to get past it. Its as simple and obvious as that. And as you said, its nature as a written narative sets it in stone.

 

The last PLANS we saw any Forsaken execute WERE still aimed at keeping the truce from occurring (Semirhage?)

 

Actually that was aimed at capturing Rand--there was no real thought about the alliance involved--and it has supplied Rand with a bargaining chip and a way to destabalize Tuon--the knowledge that Semirhage was Anath and what she has achieved will bring home to Tuon the danger the shadow presents.

 

I'm talking about the Dark One's PLAN, not what is actually occurring. Or do you think he ANTICIPATED Egwene entering the Tower? Mesaana was pretty pissed about it as I recall, and relieved that the rebellion was continuing. Do you think he ANTICIPATED that Semirhage would fail and be captured? I'm saying that his PLAN is to wait, and the reason Rand will win, is that his PLAN is failing. And when your enemies start banding together, you don't give them an additional reason, when doing so would gain you nothing. I have yet to hear how taking Tar Valon will help the Dark One get out.

 

No, i dont think he anticipated those things--but they give him even more reason to attack. When your enemies are starting to band together you dont sit around and twiddle your thumbs. You strike now, why they are still weak.

 

And its a charming little catchphrase you have there... helping the Dark One escape. This isn't about helping the Dark One escape, its about stopping the Light from unifying. Rand is growing too powerful to be ignored, and once that starts the Shadow needs Tar Valon out of the way. Its as simple as that. I'm not going to repeat all the specific reasons why thats nessasary, ive said them plenty enough.

 

You focus too much on the Dark One... The Shadow is a whole lot more then just the Dark One, and in a narative RJ is never going to shove aside the Forsaken or the shadowspawn like that... it would invalidate things he's spent books developing in favour of one foolish plan that there is no evidence the Dark One is even concidering. all those points you raised (the command about the Trollocs in the south and so forth) make perfect sense contextually. There is no indication of anything more at work, and i rather doubt RJ would instigate something more.

 

I agree that those steps could take place in short chronological order. The thing is, we only know that they will because this is a story. From the Dark One's perspective, they can't seem very likely.

 

The Dark One likely knows of Rand's desire to gain an alliance with the Seanchan. Similarily i suspect he knows of Egwene's significance... Aran'gar warns the others, and Mesanna must surely have seen it for herself by now. I agree though, the attack on the Tower will come as a surprise, likely joined with some sort of confrontation between Alviarin and the Black Ajah hunters... and all of this will be what precipitates the assault... At the same time both Suroth and Semirhage have been removed from the Seanchan, and Aran'gar from amongst the Rebels.

 

At this stage, please, tell me why he, or rather the forsaken, would hesitate to attack. No matter what comes next the Forces of the Light arn't going to become any weaker. Yes, if they wait there is a chance some sort of blow up between Rand and the Seanchan will occur, and yes, if they wait its possible that more deaths will happen in Tar Valon (though i doubt it... the whole increasing stalemate thing) But there is also the chance that Rand will reach an alliance with the Seanchan, in which case the Dark is screwed.

 

The Forsaken arn't idiots, and neither is the Dark One. They will act.

 

Um ... she tried to re-collar them herself, until Mat confiscated and buried the a'dam, and then she would never address them except by their damane names, and would not acknowledge their direct statements up to the last day she was in Mat's camp. She viewed the sul'dam as marath'damane as soon as they admitted they would channel.

 

Only when they pestered her, and this after a week of them popping up every time she stepped out of her caravan. Until then, and indeed after, she made no moves towards them--and indeed, even when she collared them she never indicated hatred. To her they are dogs that must be leashed... but you dont waste your time leashing dogs with Tarmon Gaidon on the doorstep. I was never suggesting that she'd get on with them, but she would be perfectly capable of letting them go their own way. We've seen the Seanchan do it before. You have to hate something to be blinded by it, the Seanchan don't hate marath'damane.

 

I believe Rand will be more likely to weaken on this issue, not by outright statement, but by default. The treaty can be worded in such a way that it doesn't even touch on the White Tower, and if it only applies to those following Rand, it specifically does not cover them. And although Egwene and Rand are old friends, we know he will "know the wrath of the Amyrlin seat" at some point. I can't think of any issue more likely to come between them than the Seanchan, on which subject we KNOW that Egwene is bordeline irrational.

 

As if he will. Egwene is his old love. He has Aes Sedai amongst his people. Why would he even concider bending on the issue. He will demand a ceasefire between the Seanchan and every one else until after Tarmon Gaidon, and Tuon will give it because she isn't an idiot.

 

Remember too, that Egwene is to be aided by a Seanchan woman whose face blurs, and the sword is constant. I think this means the Seanchan army under Tuon... why would Tuon go to Egwene's help? Ever? The fact that she reached an alliance with Rand would make her honourbound to stop the attack on Tar Valon, and if she arrives in the midst of a Trolloc attack, then she would lead her forces to fight them. It makes sense.

 

Thats a pretty big exception.

 

Not really... a force of ten thousand against a force of a hundred thousand, with the result being the reunification of the Tower.

 

Dumai's wells didn't take much time to have heavy casualties. You're right that both sides will not want to drag it out. So they (especially the Seanchan) will throw EVERYTHING into the initial assault. There is GREAT potential for catastrophic casualties in a very short time. If the death rate slows to even a trickle after that, the Shadow still gains time every day that it grinds on

 

An open battle between two groups of channelers. This is a surprise attack with the intention of leashing channelers. The City Guard is spread out everywhere else, only the Tower will be hit, and maybe the rebel camp, where i suspect causalties will be on the heavily seanchan side. Then there will be a short, nasty little battle in which the Seanchan come close to victory, then the rebels will join in and break that battle, driving the Seanchan back. After that it'll be skirmishes.

 

I agree, that first battle will be nasty with maybe 10,000 deaths... but im not sure what point that is... ive always acknowledged that. After that, though, the death count will be negligable--the shadow gains nothing of note in waiting, and they will be losing much elsewhere.

 

Why? As a physical location, why? They can kill more channelers with fewer casualties by forcing them to come OUT of the protection of Tar Valon.

 

I've answered this like twenty times. A force of a hundred-thousand soldiers and 2,200 channelers in a position so easily defended as Tar Valon cannot be ignored. The Shadow needs the Aes Sedai out of the way quickly before they join with the other forces of the Light and so that they can focus on Rand. The best time to attack them is whilst they are diverted with the Seanchan. Its a matter of time, convenience, and other considerations.

 

Moridin is not stupid, but you're assuming he KNOWS Egwene is going to win. That seems like a big jump to make. We only know that because we can see her POVs in the story.

 

Even the Sitters in the Tower are begining to realise this, and Aran'gar specifically warned the other Aes sedai that Egwene is no puppet.

 

I'm sure he at least knows about Rand's attempted alliance with the Seanchan, and how did he respond? Semirhage. Not an attack, which would make Rand MORE eager to cement the alliance. In fact he was angry about the one attack that did occur.

 

Thats because it occured out of his schedule. He's not ready just yet for the all out assault, and when it begins its going to happen all at once. Why would he attack Rand now when other places arn't in position... its exactly the same why he MUST attack the Tower later, he cannot assault one force and ignore the others, and the time is not yet ripe.

 

Additionally i suspect Semirhage's attack was her own idea, not Moridins... oh, she would have let him know, but it doesn't seem like Moridin's style. Moreover it wasn't to stop the alliance, Semirhage was merely taking advantage of Rand's request to get him into a position where she could take him. Why would the alliance be risk to them, with Semirhage and Suroth making the decisions for the Seanchan... to stop the alliance, all they needed to do was utter the word no. there was no real threat in it... but there is now. Suroth and Semirhage have been removed, Tuon is back in command of the Return, and that makes the Alliance a real threat.

 

If he does know about Tuon and Mat, he has specifically ordered Mat killed. Not an attack. An assassination that would increase chaos.

 

Agreed. An attack would serve no purpose in that.

 

We don't know Arad Doman is being settled down. We know Rand sent a force there. No place has simply "settled down" for him in short order yet. And now, for the first time, he is entering a Forsaken's domain without knowing the Forsaken is there. And facing a Great Captain in the field. I doubt Rodel Ituralde is just going to say "Whew, am I glad YOU'RE here, please, take over."

 

By all reports Arad Domon is already being settled. Interalde is off fighting Turan, and by the time he gets back much of the pacification will be done. Nor is he an idiot, he will not fight them until he knows their intentions. Moreover, half his force is dragonsworn. Its possible the Aiel will even aid him against the Seanchan.

 

I'm sorry, but Arad Domon isn't going to be fighting a force of 300,000 and 3500 channelers. Its gonna settle down, and at the very least its going to make Interulde meet with Rhuarc.

 

Rand is approaching the Seanchan. And Moridin has been doing everything he can to stop it, WITHOUT ATTACKING.

 

Moridin has been doing nothing to stop it, because until now it presented no danger. Now it does.

 

Basically, we can't credit the Dark One and Moridin with all the knowledge that we, the readers, have. From their vantage point, it would be better to have any fighting that takes place occur in the Blight, where they have the advantage, and to put off any fighting as long as possible, so that they can do whatever it takes to free Big Darkie. Once he's out, they don't have to plan anything.

 

You're again assuming Moridin knows that Egwene will win. I don't think he's sure of that at all.

 

Firstly, im not granting the Dark any great knowledge--the state of the world is obvious, and it has minions amongst every force to inform them of it. Rand's forces are gathered, Tuon is back in charge of the Seanchan, Rand wants to meet Tuon, and Tuon told Anath straight to her face how important finding the Dragon Reborn is, which means Moridin does have some inclination of what her position will be. Already the Tower sisters respect Egwene, something that would have gotten to Moridin, and likely the question of whether she will win will be answered before he even asks it. She will take charge in the Seanchan attack, and in a matter of hours undo all the work Mesana and Aran'gar have done. In the face of that do you really think he's gonna wait around before ordering an all out attack? Do you reall think he is going to let the Light get any stronger or allow them time to prepare.

 

Of course not, and neither will the Dark One at that stage.

[mike]

after reading that 4 page back and forth cancelletory i assume RJ can call it quits. it wore me out to hear that many spins put on it and i don't know what to think.

 

what i always wanted to know...

1. what makes the island and city of tar valon so desirable other than the aes sedai that are there? mat needs the horn and can call a cab outta there.

 

2. where do galad and the whitecloaks fit in. everything i remember about the whitecloaks theology would put them right in the middle of the action against any battle against the shadow. they have erroneously been ordered around to stir up trouble by their commanding officers and the fact that too many of their officers were taken by the dark side puts a star wars/crusaders spin on it. the children will have to come into the picture sooner or later.

galad, rand's half brother, is going to come into play once he learns of matters. "he always does right" and in this case it will be fighting alongside his brothers and sister against the darkfriends he has learned to hate. his sense of what the children of the light stand for will come to full circle by that point when he realizes that his family is fighting against and the propaganda tht has been smeared on the aes sedai will rub off for him.

 

3. what were the whitecloaks when they were first founded? what was their original purpose? i would say they were the army of someone and the whole thing got twisted around somehow.

 

so much fore my whitecloaks/galad thoughts.

 

the ways...

the ways seem to be an easy fix...go inside and look at where you would like a gateway to lead. go to the entrance and just before you exit open a gateway that leads to the place you selected, preferably, just behind you. tie off the weave and you have created a death door for any shadowspawn. you can open another gateway and walk on out. do the same for the outside and put wards on both that kill. no trollocs or fades will come through that gateway.

 

too easy, right? :arrow:

[RobertAlexWillis]

Yet the only evidence for this you have is your suspicion about the Dark One's plans. EVERYTHING else in the series shows that the Shadow has nothing to wait for, and that the longer they wait the more they risk the Light unifying.

 

My assessment is based on what they have actually done. Only one military style attack, against orders, and no other preparations made.

 

Last time the bore was unsealed he fought. This time he has ordered his enemies destabalized, and there is evidence of him gathering his Trollocs. There is no evidence that he is widening the bore, or increasing his ability to touch the pattern beyond what he could achieve in the AOL.

 

Taking Tar Valon is nessasary for the destruction of the light, and the destruction of the Light is nessasary for his survival.

 

The last time, he waited and worked patiently for 90 years, and fighting began when his followers "struck" in some way attempting to ... what? take over Paaren Disen, the seat of the Aes Sedai? No, they did something in an attempt to free the Dark One. We don't know what that is, but it was apparently premature. I doubt the Dark One will make the same mistake again.

 

Wrong. We have seen both Tuon and Rand angling for a meeting with each other, and we have seen in both a desperation to be ready for Tarmon Gaidon. I agree Tuon's insistance that he must kneel to the Crystal Thrown will be a spanner in the works... but Tuon is not an idiot, they will get past it because they need to get past it. Its as simple and obvious as that. And as you said, its nature as a written narative sets it in stone.

 

Yes, we have seen both of them angling for a meeting. Of course, neither knows what the other REALLY wants the meeting for, and actually, Tuon doesn't even know that Rand wants a meeting yet. The first she hears of it will be from the sul'dam and damane he returned. That they will reach some accomodation is certain, but what that accomodation will be, or how long it takes is very much unknown.

 

Actually that was aimed at capturing Rand--there was no real thought about the alliance involved--and it has supplied Rand with a bargaining chip and a way to destabalize Tuon--the knowledge that Semirhage was Anath and what she has achieved will bring home to Tuon the danger the shadow presents.

 

Capturing Rand would stop the alliance. And the fact of Semirhage's involvement may be the only thing that lowers Tuons eyes enough to consider accomodation.

 

No, i dont think he anticipated those things--but they give him even more reason to attack. When your enemies are starting to band together you dont sit around and twiddle your thumbs. You strike now, why they are still weak.

 

He would have to have anticipated them in order for them to be the basis for his plan of attack.

 

And its a charming little catchphrase you have there... helping the Dark One escape. This isn't about helping the Dark One escape, its about stopping the Light from unifying. Rand is growing too powerful to be ignored, and once that starts the Shadow needs Tar Valon out of the way. Its as simple as that. I'm not going to repeat all the specific reasons why thats nessasary, ive said them plenty enough.

 

You focus too much on the Dark One... The Shadow is a whole lot more then just the Dark One, and in a narative RJ is never going to shove aside the Forsaken or the shadowspawn like that... it would invalidate things he's spent books developing in favour of one foolish plan that there is no evidence the Dark One is even concidering. all those points you raised (the command about the Trollocs in the south and so forth) make perfect sense contextually. There is no indication of anything more at work, and i rather doubt RJ would instigate something more.

 

I'm concentrating on the Dark One, because I'm talking about his plans. I've admitted that the Frosaken would do things differently, thats why Shai'tan has Moridin with a pair of mindtraps and Shaidar Haran to rape his followers when they step out of line. He is taking control, for the simple reason that he KNOWS they have different plans, and he DOESN'T want them enacted.

 

The Dark One likely knows of Rand's desire to gain an alliance with the Seanchan. Similarily i suspect he knows of Egwene's significance... Aran'gar warns the others, and Mesanna must surely have seen it for herself by now. I agree though, the attack on the Tower will come as a surprise, likely joined with some sort of confrontation between Alviarin and the Black Ajah hunters... and all of this will be what precipitates the assault... At the same time both Suroth and Semirhage have been removed from the Seanchan, and Aran'gar from amongst the Rebels.

 

At this stage, please, tell me why he, or rather the forsaken, would hesitate to attack. No matter what comes next the Forces of the Light arn't going to become any weaker. Yes, if they wait there is a chance some sort of blow up between Rand and the Seanchan will occur, and yes, if they wait its possible that more deaths will happen in Tar Valon (though i doubt it... the whole increasing stalemate thing) But there is also the chance that Rand will reach an alliance with the Seanchan, in which case the Dark is screwed.

 

The Forsaken arn't idiots, and neither is the Dark One. They will act.

 

I will now tell you why both the Dark One and the Forsaken would hesitate to attack Tar Valon. The only chance they would have of doing real damage would be with surprise. And they cant attack with significant numbers by surprise. The only way they have into the city is the Ways. And they can't bring large groups through the Ways together. The only way more than a thousand or so Trollocs (or other Shadowspawn) could be brought through the Ways would be to bring them through piecemeal, and hide them on the other side, until enough are gathered. More than that and you get Machin Shin soup. But there is nowhere to hide in Tar Valon. So they can't build up forces. Which means they have to march. Which means their enemies would have time to unite and prepare BEFORE the assault. Which means they just forced their enemies together, before they could attack, in the strongest position available. IF they plan to act militarily against the Aes Sedai, they will at least try to draw them OUT of Tar Valon, and deal with them on even ground. Attacking them in their fortified city when they know you are coming WOULD be pure STUPID. And since neither the Forsaken nor the Dark One are stupid, they would not plan that.

 

Only when they pestered her, and this after a week of them popping up every time she stepped out of her caravan. Until then, and indeed after, she made no moves towards them--and indeed, even when she collared them she never indicated hatred. To her they are dogs that must be leashed... but you dont waste your time leashing dogs with Tarmon Gaidon on the doorstep. I was never suggesting that she'd get on with them, but she would be perfectly capable of letting them go their own way. We've seen the Seanchan do it before. You have to hate something to be blinded by it, the Seanchan don't hate marath'damane.

 

I've never said that she hates Aes Sedai. I've said she won't agree to stop collaring them. You can be blinded by any strong belief as much as by hate. This woman lives by OMENS. She is SUNK in her own point of view. After all her "discussions" with Setalle Anan, she only thought that maybe she had brought Setalle around on a few points. She conceded NONE herself.

 

Now I'll tell you why she would not stop collaring the "dogs" even for Tarmon Gai'don. The Seanchan's ability to fight in Tarmon Gai'don depends on damane.

 

I've answered this like twenty times. A force of a hundred-thousand soldiers and 2,200 channelers in a position so easily defended as Tar Valon cannot be ignored. The Shadow needs the Aes Sedai out of the way quickly before they join with the other forces of the Light and so that they can focus on Rand. The best time to attack them is whilst they are diverted with the Seanchan. Its a matter of time, convenience, and other considerations.

 

The FORCE is the target, if there is one, not the LOCATION. If any action is planned, it would be to draw the Aes Sedai out of their highly fortified position. The longer they wait, the better the chance of the Dark One being free. Defense is always a stronger position in war, since you force the enemy to come to ground of your choosing. The closer to the Bore, the more the Dark One can influence the outcome.

 

Even the Sitters in the Tower are begining to realise this, and Aran'gar specifically warned the other Aes sedai that Egwene is no puppet.

 

There's alot of ground between "shes not a puppet" and "she's going to beat Mesaana, the Black Ajah, and the Seanchan." I doubt Moridin even now anticipates the latter.

 

Additionally i suspect Semirhage's attack was her own idea, not Moridins... oh, she would have let him know, but it doesn't seem like Moridin's style. Moreover it wasn't to stop the alliance, Semirhage was merely taking advantage of Rand's request to get him into a position where she could take him. Why would the alliance be risk to them, with Semirhage and Suroth making the decisions for the Seanchan... to stop the alliance, all they needed to do was utter the word no. there was no real threat in it... but there is now. Suroth and Semirhage have been removed, Tuon is back in command of the Return, and that makes the Alliance a real threat.

 

If it was not a threat until after Semirhage failed, and if he didn't anticipate failure, how would Moridin plan for it? Semirhage only JUST NOW failed.

 

By all reports Arad Domon is already being settled. Interalde is off fighting Turan, and by the time he gets back much of the pacification will be done. Nor is he an idiot, he will not fight them until he knows their intentions. Moreover, half his force is dragonsworn. Its possible the Aiel will even aid him against the Seanchan.

 

I'm sorry, but Arad Domon isn't going to be fighting a force of 300,000 and 3500 channelers. Its gonna settle down, and at the very least its going to make Interulde meet with Rhuarc.

 

Arad Doman is the current home of Graendal. As long as she remains unexposed, its not reasonable to think that it will calm down. She can send idiotic messages to Ituralde that he might well obey. We know that because he's trying to avoid recieving one. I doubt that that would stop Graendal if she really wanted to get one through ... he's managed it so far because she wants him to keep doing what he's doing.

 

Moridin has been doing nothing to stop it, because until now it presented no danger. Now it does.

 

Moridin made preparations CENTURIES ago, altering prophecy to specifically prevent this union, and Semirhage was acting with at LEAST his consent. Until she failed, why would he plan otherwise? And she just now failed, so when has he had time to plan?

 

Rand's forces are gathered, Tuon is back in charge of the Seanchan, Rand wants to meet Tuon, and Tuon told Anath straight to her face how important finding the Dragon Reborn is, which means Moridin does have some inclination of what her position will be.

 

Rand has just bitten off another country taming project. And Tuon said to Anath, "I must find a way to make contact with the Dragon Reborn as soon as possible. He must kneel before the Crystal Throne before Tarmon Gai'don, or all is lost." (Winter's Heart, What a Veil Hides, p. 329)Moridin knows she plans to make Rand KNEEL. He also knows how well THAT is likely to be recieved. I'd say he expects a large fireworks show, spouting happy little chaos.

 

Already the Tower sisters respect Egwene, something that would have gotten to Moridin, and likely the question of whether she will win will be answered before he even asks it. She will take charge in the Seanchan attack, and in a matter of hours undo all the work Mesana and Aran'gar have done. In the face of that do you really think he's gonna wait around before ordering an all out attack? Do you reall think he is going to let the Light get any stronger or allow them time to prepare.

 

If she takes over during the attack, undoing Mesaana's work in a matter of hours (deciding the issue before he asks the question, as you said), how can he immediately bring an assault to bear? He can't gateway them in. If it happens during the Seanchan attack, it will seem like the plan is working, right up until the moment it doesn't. Semirhage and Mesaana no doubt planned that together, and Moridin no doubt knows their plans. Unless he ANTICIPATED FAILURE, he doesn't have a Trolloc army up his sleeve. And anyway, he has no way to get them there on short notice.

 

After that, Rand will remove the issue from his hands by going on the ATTACK. He always attacks if he can. He'll go for the jugular ... and get it.

[Luckers]

My assessment is based on what they have actually done. Only one military style attack, against orders, and no other preparations made.

 

Thats because before now it made no sense to do that. The Shadow gained more out of manipulation and attempting to destabalize their enemies. That time is past.

 

The last time, he waited and worked patiently for 90 years, and fighting began when his followers "struck" in some way attempting to ... what? take over Paaren Disen, the seat of the Aes Sedai? No, they did something in an attempt to free the Dark One. We don't know what that is, but it was apparently premature. I doubt the Dark One will make the same mistake again.

 

Perhaps, but even you must admit given that it is the last book a ninety year wait... or indeed, given the length of the books, a week and a half wait, is out of the question. Rand is gathering his forces, and the Shadow MUST react to that.

 

Yes, we have seen both of them angling for a meeting. Of course, neither knows what the other REALLY wants the meeting for, and actually, Tuon doesn't even know that Rand wants a meeting yet. The first she hears of it will be from the sul'dam and damane he returned. That they will reach some accomodation is certain, but what that accomodation will be, or how long it takes is very much unknown.

 

Firstly, yes we do in the nature of the fact that its the last book. That sets a time barrier. Secondly, yes we do because the prophecies say that Rand will bind the nine moons to serve him. That sets the nature of the agreement--an alliance that serves Rand's interest primarily. Oh i dont doubt there will be some sort of drama--the whole bow to the crystal throne thing--it wouldn't be a good read without it, but in the end an agreement will be reached soon, and it will be to Rand's favour. his nature as ta'veren, the prophecies, Tuons intelligence, her discovery of Anath and Suroth's subterfuge, her assosiation with Mat... it all suggests this.

 

And if you want more indication that she will be willing to accept his terms about a ceasing of leashing marath'damane (which bind to serve implies anyway) here is a direct quote from Tuon. "Eventually the traitors would be punished, and the thief. The property would be restored to its rightful owners, and the marath'damane leashed. But those things had to wait on what was more important."

 

There, Tuon has shown an ability to prioritize, and she will do so again.

 

As for your stuff about them not knowing each other, or each others desires... i fail to see any relevance.

 

Capturing Rand would stop the alliance.

 

Concidering there would have been no alliance anyway--Suroth need merely have said no, which indeed would have instigated a war between Rand and the Seanchan, which would have been VERY beneficial to the Shadow, i must conclude that the attempt to capture Rand had a different purpose. Likely that whole... change him to the Dark thing... or maybe Moridin commanded because he is desperate to sever the connection he and Rand have formed before Rand dies, or the Dark One learns of it... Either way i doubt stopping an alliance that could never have happened given that situation had anything to do with Semirhages reasoning.

 

And the fact of Semirhage's involvement may be the only thing that lowers Tuons eyes enough to consider accomodation.

 

This seems to be a point in my favour... Coz i agree... Semirhage's influence will ellucidate the true dangerto Tuon, though i doubt it will shame her into doing anything particularily momental.

 

He would have to have anticipated them in order for them to be the basis for his plan of attack.

 

No he wouldn't have. Firstly, this attack has likely been in the works since the Blight shut down for buisness. Secondly, the attack has as yet to be launched... though i suspect it will be soon, and i dont doubt those things will influence the way he chooses to go about it. Thirdly, for him to begin thinking about launching attack he need look no further then what Rand is doing... That will be enough for him to begin Tarmon Gai'don--he simply cannot risk Rand achieving an alliance with the Seanchan... the attack on the Tower won't come till a little bit later, once the nature of the situation there becomes obvious he'll divert one of the armies to Tar Valon. It would be the only sensible thing to do.

 

I'm concentrating on the Dark One, because I'm talking about his plans. I've admitted that the Frosaken would do things differently, thats why Shai'tan has Moridin with a pair of mindtraps and Shaidar Haran to rape his followers when they step out of line. He is taking control, for the simple reason that he KNOWS they have different plans, and he DOESN'T want them enacted.

 

We have no evidence that the Dark One is planning anything... oh, dont get me wrong, i know the points you've made, but i dont think they actually imply anything other then what they are. A hundred thousand trollocs slipped the leash, so Moridin commanded tighter control of them. The Time of Return is getting closer, so Moridin is making sure the Forsaken toe the lines and obey commands... which they'd damn well want to if Moridin's about to begin a war on the scale that he is. All these things make perfect sense in both scenarios.

 

Moreover, from purely the Dark Ones perspective... do you think it makes any more sense for him to allow the world to unite under his ancient enemy given he's not ready yet to escape. And you can be sure that at this stage Shai'tain will know the situation in the world as clearly as Moridin does.

 

Indeed, even if your theory is correct about the Dark Ones plans ARE correct it makes infinitely more sense to start an invasion now. It catches the Light before it can unify (which the Dark One will know IS a possibility) and it occupies the Shadow so they dont go off and do their own thing.

 

Besides, i still think that based on what occured in the Age of Legends the Dark One needs living followers to free him, and they need time unmolested to achieve that.

 

only chance they would have of doing real damage would be with surprise.

 

Not true, in point of fact i suspect the city will have quite a lot of warning from Lan before the Trollocs arrive. I suspect that the army that attacks Tar Valon will be one of three sent south, and will therefore number in the millions. Even so the city, due to its defensibility, might have witheld had it not been devided and already engaged in a nasty little hack and slash battle with the Seanchan.

 

Three reasons. One, RJ needs to step up the pace and tone of this book so it doesn't seem anticlimatic. Two, it makes sense given the amount of Shadowspawn the Shadow can likely gather. Three--its Tarmon Gai'don... its time the Shadow started moving openly.

 

The only way they have into the city is the Ways. And they can't bring large groups through the Ways together. The only way more than a thousand or so Trollocs (or other Shadowspawn) could be brought through the Ways would be to bring them through piecemeal, and hide them on the other side, until enough are gathered

 

A hundred thousand made the trip to Tear to attack Rand... and you can be damn sure that if they went through piecemeal, Moridin would have learnt of it and shut it down long before that many could assemble. I suspect Machin Shin may no longer be an issue following the cleansing.

 

Which means they have to march. Which means their enemies would have time to unite and prepare BEFORE the assault. Which means they just forced their enemies together, before they could attack, in the strongest position available. IF they plan to act militarily against the Aes Sedai, they will at least try to draw them OUT of Tar Valon, and deal with them on even ground. Attacking them in their fortified city when they know you are coming WOULD be pure STUPID. And since neither the Forsaken nor the Dark One are stupid, they would not plan that.

 

They don't have the time for that sort of plan. The Tower needs to be crushed and now. Besides, its not like a Trolloc army hasn't succeeded in breaking the defenses of Tar Valon before... in the Trolloc Wars one got into the white tower itself. More then a Million Shadowspawn will lay seige to Tar Valon, and Tar Valon will be devided and engaged in a battle already. It would be the best time to strike imaginable. What would be stupid is waiting for the Aes Sedai to consolidate themselves and join Rand's alliance.

 

I've never said that she hates Aes Sedai. I've said she won't agree to stop collaring them. You can be blinded by any strong belief as much as by hate. This woman lives by OMENS. She is SUNK in her own point of view. After all her "discussions" with Setalle Anan, she only thought that maybe she had brought Setalle around on a few points. She conceded NONE herself.

 

Now I'll tell you why she would not stop collaring the "dogs" even for Tarmon Gai'don.

 

As I said before, she's already done it, and for a lot less then Tarmon Gai'don.

 

"Eventually the traitors would be punished, and the thief. The property would be restored to its rightful owners, and the marath'damane leashed. But those things had to wait on what was more important."

 

:D

 

The FORCE is the target, if there is one, not the LOCATION. If any action is planned, it would be to draw the Aes Sedai out of their highly fortified position. The longer they wait, the better the chance of the Dark One being free. Defense is always a stronger position in war, since you force the enemy to come to ground of your choosing. The closer to the Bore, the more the Dark One can influence the outcome.

 

That plan would make sense...MAYBE... if the Aes sedai were the true enemy. They arn't. In fact, for all intents and purposes, they're quite inconsiquential. They need to be dealt with QUICKLY is the significant point, because relative to other forces they are weak, and easily dealt with. Relative, i say. I'm not suggesting it would be easy, but it needs to be done none the less.

 

And again i draw your attention to that MAYBE. It doesn't make any sense for the Shadow to allow Tar Valon to consolidate itself, and then come at them prepared and as a united front, possibly in compuntion with Rand.

 

Your plan of luring them out is trusting them to be stupid. They have Gareth Bryne, they arn't going to be stupid. They will choose their battles where it makes sense, in cohesion with Rand... and that MUST not be allowed. At the moment Tar Valon is weak and devided... now is the optimum time to strike.

 

There's alot of ground between "shes not a puppet" and "she's going to beat Mesaana, the Black Ajah, and the Seanchan." I doubt Moridin even now anticipates the latter.

 

I don't nessasarily disagree... NOW. But when the Seanchan attack and Egwene leads a counter-strike, consolidating the Aes Sedai, its going to settle matters and he WILL divert an army to Tar Valon. A significant one, one that will be able to eliminate the Aes Sedai quickly.

 

If it was not a threat until after Semirhage failed, and if he didn't anticipate failure, how would Moridin plan for it? Semirhage only JUST NOW failed.

 

And did i ever say the attack was being launched JUST NOW. You focus too much on the present state of things. My entire theory begins more then a week after KoD ends. That gives time for Moridin to learn of Semirhage's capture, and learn that Tuon is back in charge of the Seanchan. It gives time for Lan to get far closer to Tarwin's Gap (a week is ten days, so he probably wont be all the way there, but meh). It gives the Seanchan time to launch an attack on the Tower.

 

So, Moridin orders the assault to begin. Lan meets the trolloc horde moving south through Tarwin Gap, but its size is massive. He resorts to hack and slash tactics, and falls back. In Arad Domon Rhuarc learns of another insertion through the Shadows Lance, and moves to meet it more openly, but is driven back--I suspect there will be a third as well, down through one of the other Borderland nations... possibly two others, so each nation has their own. Meh.

 

Meanwhile Egwene leads her counter-strike, driving back the Seanchan. Not victory... at least a hundred of the Tower Aes Sedai will have been leashed, and maybe ten thousand soldiers dead after the fury of the initial assault. It settles into that vicious city fight i suggested. At the same time Egwene is consolidating the Aes Sedai frimly behind her... i suspect during this time there will also be a confrontation between the Black Ajah and the Black Ajah hunter... though that will probably come late, maybe just before the Trollocs arrive.

 

Meanwhile, the Trollocs will either be driving Lan south, or it'll be a different band... i really think it'll be Lans one though, for the symmatry. There is little Lan can do to slow over a million trollocs, but he does make an effort. Over the next week you get flashes between him and Egwene.

 

He arrives in the city ahead of the Trolloc horder, and joins his forces to hers on the walls. The first Trolloc assault begins, and Egwene attempts a cease fire with the Seanchan until after the Trollocs are done with... the Seanchan dont reply.

 

Meanwhile, in the south Rand meets with Tuon. They dance around each other, there is some sort of issue resulting from the false prophecy, they deal with that and reach their alliance. Honour bound Tuon reveals the assault on Tar Valon, and Rand demands it be stopped. The travel north to Tar Valon to discover the city under attack, specifically the Aes Sedai held part, and the Aes Sedai near to being overwhelmed. Its possible that an assault through the Ways is staged too, though i doubt it... dunno why, i just do. I think the attack needs to be of the giant battle time to set the pace of the last book.

 

Anyway, Tuon musters the Seanchan, either because of her agreement with Rand, or simply because it makes bucketloads of sense not to let the Trollocs win whilst still in the city and no way out if she doesn't aid Rand and the Aes Sedai--either way she leads them to aid the Aes Sedai, driving back the assault. Possibly even routing the whole army. Remember there will likely be nearly 4300 channelers working against the army at that stage, as well as the angreal and sa'angreal of the tower... and lets not forget some of those channelers will be Asha'men. Rand likely brought a coterie of his own as well... maybe even Callandor and the Choedan Kal--though i dont see that being used.

 

This will be around 3 weeks after the end of KoD... 30 days.

 

Arad Doman is the current home of Graendal. As long as she remains unexposed, its not reasonable to think that it will calm down. She can send idiotic messages to Ituralde that he might well obey. We know that because he's trying to avoid recieving one. I doubt that that would stop Graendal if she really wanted to get one through ... he's managed it so far because she wants him to keep doing what he's doing.

 

You grant Graendal too much respect. Rhuarc and the others will be settling down Arad Domon, and they wont obey idiotic messages, and the fact that A) Interulde is trying to avoid them, and B) he's distracted with a large Seanchan army means he's not really in a position to do much to oppose Rhuarc. Especially not if Rhuarc aids him with the seanchan, which may happen... And even if Graendal did order him too, he wouldn't go against a force that large willy-nilly--especially since more then half his force is Dragonsworn, and therefore likely to side with Rhuarc.

 

Moridin made preparations CENTURIES ago, altering prophecy to specifically prevent this union, and Semirhage was acting with at LEAST his consent. Until she failed, why would he plan otherwise? And she just now failed, so when has he had time to plan?

 

Umm... next week. I would have thought that obvious given Semirhage just failed now... why would he plan before that?

 

As for his actions... he did it on the chance that it would pay off, there is no way he could have foreseen these specific events. And until Semirhage failed he would have no reason to even concider what he might do in the event of an alliance. As far as he was concerned the seanchan would obey any order he gave via Semirhage or Suroth. Now he must concider that, and how will he react? A trolloc invasion.

 

Moridin knows she plans to make Rand KNEEL. He also knows how well THAT is likely to be recieved. I'd say he expects a large fireworks show, spouting happy little chaos.

 

He also knows prophecy says Rand will bind the Nine Moons to serve him. Real prophecy. Additionally he likely knows Tuon is no idiot also. I'm not saying he'll be absolutely convinced that an alliance will happen, but he simply cannot risk that it might. And given what he knows, he would know that is a risk. A large one.

 

If she takes over during the attack, undoing Mesaana's work in a matter of hours (deciding the issue before he asks the question, as you said), how can he immediately bring an assault to bear? He can't gateway them in. If it happens during the Seanchan attack, it will seem like the plan is working, right up until the moment it doesn't.

 

What is with your insistance with immediacy? You yourself offered reasons why it would be stupid to attack during the heat of the initial assault. Let them kill each other off. And besides, as you say he could never mount an immediate assault.

 

Semirhage and Mesaana no doubt planned that together, and Moridin no doubt knows their plans.

 

I disagree. I think the Seanchan assault on the Tower is purerly the work of the Seanchan. Indeed, we see the beginnings of it in the chapter with the Deathwatch Guard and the Seeker, and we see it progress and build throughout the books. Possibly Semirhage didn't even know it--the threat of Tower spies and the like would make it reasonable not to reveal that, and neither Tuon nor Suroth indicate they are aware of it.. Galgan refers to it without ever speaking of what it was, and Suroth displays no knowledge. Likely its on just becoming known, which means Semirhage may indeed not have heard about it.

 

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