Mat's Luck and Channeling

[dholm]

And he did think that he was always lucky. Winning 6 or 8 tosses in a row against Hurin isn't "abnormally lucky". Even I would win that much (several times), if I played with someone during a period of ten days.

That's just not true, unless you're using weighted dice. You'd lose just as many as you win, on average, assuming fair dice and no cheating. Mat kept winning.

[Alghar Khan]

That's just not true, unless you're using weighted dice. You'd lose just as many as you win, on average, assuming fair dice and no cheating. Mat kept winning.

Mat said "there were times with Hurin when 6 or 8 tosses in a row went my way". If I played with someone during 10 days, 60 tosses every day, then I would be expected to win 6 in a row (or more than that) 3 or 4 times during that time. Regular dice, no special designs. No cheating in any other way.

[OptimusPrime]

That's just not true, unless you're using weighted dice. You'd lose just as many as you win, on average, assuming fair dice and no cheating. Mat kept winning.

Mat said "there were times with Hurin when 6 or 8 tosses in a row went my way". If I played with someone during 10 days, 60 tosses every day, then I would be expected to win 6 in a row (or more than that) 3 or 4 times during that time. Regular dice, no special designs. No cheating in any other way.

 

Dice arent the only thing involved in Mats luck. Can you reply to my last post please Alghar?

[Alghar Khan]

We arent just looking at dice though, are we? Mat was searching for Rahvin/whoever RANDOMLY and found him on the off chance. First he roamed aimlessly which took him to one of two inns. He then spun on the spot, randomly stopped himself and fell, landing facing the inn Rahvin/whoever just happened to be in. That was not ta'veren, it was Mats randomness luck. It doesnt just go off dice games so you can stop using the same bit to prove nothing.

Well, people arguing for the Dagger to have increased his luck have used the same piece of evidence. Why shouldn't I do the same? All ta'veren experience chance-twisting effects that are good for the good cause. The special thing with Mat (and Arthur Hawkwing) is that he can win at dice.

 

Funny thing about this discussion is that when people disagree and you ask a specific question, giving them an opportunity to prove they are right, they ignore that opportunity because they lack the necessary tools to sieze it ie more evidence or another explanation.

Right back at you.

 

If the dagger was suppressing Mats luck, why did he end up being luckier than he was in Emonds Field after the dagger had played his part, if not something to do with the daggers taint itself?

We don't know that for sure. That was a random thought by an amnesiac who was trying to reconstruct the order of his remaining memories. We've got nothing happening at that particular time in the story that can confirm Mat's suspicions.

 

Alghar, you yourself said that Mats luck, in Emonds Field, was not normal person luck. That would by default mean it had nothing to do with Ta'veren.

I haven't said that it must be ta'veren. Even though he became a ta'veren in Emond's Field...

 

Why is Mat surprised with his new luck level at all if he wasnt normal lucky in Emonds Field?

Why wouldn't he be surprised by any increase?

 

You yourself say he wasnt lucky until being Healed of the dagger itself.

No, I said he wasn't "abnormally" lucky.

 

So what was suppressing his luck prior to getting the dagger then?

Nothing. The Dagger could have halted his luck at that level. Halting any increase, even though his base-line luck increased in the mean time.

 

Something absolutely had to have been, in order for him to not remember that he was abnormally lucky.

Maybe because his base-line luck increased in between picking up the Dagger and getting healed from it.

 

There. If you dont answer that, well, it leaves a big hole in your theory.

I've answered this before.

 

[Alghar Khan]

If the dagger was suppressing Mats luck, why did he end up being luckier than he was in Emonds Field after the dagger had played his part, if not something to do with the daggers taint itself?

I probably gave the wrong answer to this question. You meant "when he was healed from the effects", right? If something made his luck increase in the mean time, and the Dagger had halted his luck, then a jump in apparant luck is the end result.

[OptimusPrime]

All ta'veren experience chance-twisting effects that are good for the good cause. The special thing with Mat (and Arthur Hawkwing) is that he can win at dice

 

No, random situations work in his favor. He figures it out himself, and confirms it to himself and us when he spins around on the pot and lands facing the place where his target was. That isnt the same as Ta'veren.

 

We don't know that for sure. That was a random thought by an amnesiac who was trying to reconstruct the order of his remaining memories. We've got nothing happening at that particular time in the story that can confirm Mat's suspicions.

 

Im not talking about what Mat believes on that point. His luck ends up being a hell of a lot better than anything he ever mentioned before. The timing fits nothing else but the dagger.

 

I haven't said that it must be ta'veren. Even though he became a ta'veren in Emond's Field.

 

His Ta'veren quality didnt make him lucky from the word go as far as the books say. Him being Ta'veren isnt any different from Perrins. Its what happens to him after becoming Ta'veren that made him permanently lucky in random situations, not being Ta'veren itself. No reason to believe otherwise.

 

Why wouldn't he be surprised by any increase?

 

Because if he had ever experienced any luck other than regular luck he wouldnt be completely surprised by that luck returning. He was surprised because even though he was always regular lucky, now his luck extends specifically to random situations. With things like unweighted dice or anything else that has no deciding factor. Mat becomes a deciding factor in situation that have no set outcome. Of course hes going to be surprised, he has figured out which situations his abnormal luck works in.

 

No, I said he wasn't "abnormally" lucky.

 

Exactly. For his baseline luck to increase would be abnormally lucky. He doesnt get any luckier until the dagger shows up and nothing can disprove that. It didnt supress his luck at all because before it turned up he hadnt noticed that he was no longer normal lucky. Mat seems to be observant on this field so we can trust that if he hasnt noticed a difference ie hsi baseline luck being suppressed, he would have taken note of it.

 

Because his base-line luck increased in between picking up the Dagger and getting healed from it.

 

What started this off then? Back the idea up with a cause please. He didnt notice any decrease in luck ever between all this, so theres no point believing something was holding his luck back at all. Nothing supports the idea, it is based purely on speculation.

 

If the dagger was suppressing Mats luck, why did he end up being luckier than he was in Emonds Field after the dagger had played his part, if not something to do with the daggers taint itself?

I probably gave the wrong answer to this question. You meant "when he was healed from the effects", right? If something made his luck increase in the mean time, and the Dagger had halted his luck, then a jump in apparant luck is the end result.

 

Then please tell me what that something is!!!!! Im not about to believe in something that has never been shown in the books and has remained unexplained despite an explanation for that specific detail being asked for. Repeatedly. If you think something was increasing Mats baseline luck, tell me what. It was not his Ta'veren because Ta'veren doesnt alter luck at all, it alters chance. There is a difference. People said Artur Hawkwing was lucky because they dont understand how Ta'veren works like we do.

[Durinax]

I figure if his baseline luck was higher than typical off the start, and the dagger causes his luck to decrease a set amount, by the time he regains his luck it seems as if he's at the luckiest point of his life.

[Phariah]

Mat has always been lucky. he even states it. it is also backed up by Rand when they were gonna use the portal stone to travel to Falme ," Mat's the lucky one" as stated by someone that grew up with him.

 

where is his abnormal luck from when he picked up the dagger? any fact from the books? state something besides the rambling admittance of it's the dagger - no it was the aes sedai - no i have no idea. well? if the dagger gave him luck and didn't supress it there should be something after he left SL.

 

get a dictionary and look up chance and luck. luck is a synonym for chance.

chance: 1- apparent absence of of cause or design; destiny; fortune

2- a happening; fortuitous event; accident /3- possibility of an occurance; uncertainity; hazard; risk; gamble /4- possibility; the ratio of probability of a thing happening to its not happening /5- opportunity; favorable circumstances / SYN- accident,fortuity, hazard, fortune, casualty, luck

Luck: 1- the seemily chance happening of events which affect one; fortune; lot; fate /2- good fortune; success, prosperity, advantage/

so you take the spinning around example you like and it is chance ...it is random.. there was no plan or design

 

than in tDR chap 19 "a visit with them, a day to see the city, perhaps a game with the dice to pad out his purse". than in chap 20 talking about his  dice " with these, his 2 marks would become enough to take him far away from TV." chap 24 Gawyn and Galad istegate the 3 way duel he thinks " his luck would not even have to be back"  These are all thoughts of someone that knows he is lucky and has always been lucky. very confident even with holes in his memories.

 

Mat's first appearance of his luck, even though we don't get a pov, i feel is when they had to fight the Trollocs the first time after leaving EF. Perrin and Rand have weapons and barely stay on their horses and hold them off. you than have Mat no weapon, hooked in a noose in a group of Trollocs comes out with no injury. he than shakes himself and you can picture him saying "i'm a flaming lucky bastard". and thats the same time his old blood kicked in.

 

Rand was born channeler =Perrin a wolfbrother =Mat was born lucky

 

RJ states that his luck is in some round about way linked to the DO. SL's taint was made by men not the DO.

also Fain was a shadow touched enhanced  man that was possessed / melded with Mordeth. the dagger didn't give him powers. Mordeth was already known from the history of SL to cause suspicion and hatred. whatever else he gained was from melding with Fain.

 

SL's taint was suspicion and hatred. no where is it said to be some luck inducing magic. rot and decay are the effects of the dagger. and Mordeth was against everyone, suspicion against all. all you are doing is making assumptions about the SL's taint to back your dagger theory. you have no proof. the dagger didn't keep him alive either, it was causing the taint and wasting disease. he didn't need the dagger to hold the taint back he needed it to rid himself of it. the end of chap 41 tEotW explains the dagger and its taint quite well. 

 

and it isn't far fetched to see a tainted object of decay / disease that holds to neither light or shadow corrupting his connection to his luck. so that after Moiraine heals him and wards him, the first time he gambles he has an extra umph to his luck in Fal Dara. which is the first extra luck we see. as if it was being held back and finally given a release. and than when he is fully healed his luck and taveren blend fully and run wild till they settle down to what they are now.

[WWWwombat]

I don't know or care what caused Mat's luck.  All I know is it's AWESOME and Mat is AWESOME.  Maybe more info will be revealed in TGS or the last two books.

[OptimusPrime]

I figure if his baseline luck was higher than typical off the start, and the dagger causes his luck to decrease a set amount, by the time he regains his luck it seems as if he's at the luckiest point of his life.

 

SO TELL ME WHY HIS BASELINE LUCK IS BETTER THAN A NORMAL PERSONS. I have already explained why Ta'veren cant be the cause of that. The reason you cant come up with a reason is because it didnt happen.

 

Phariah, Im at work so I dont have time atm but Im not ignoring your post. I will reply after work at some point.

[Alghar Khan]

No, random situations work in his favor. He figures it out himself, and confirms it to himself and us when he spins around on the pot and lands facing the place where his target was. That isnt the same as Ta'veren.

Maybe. Mat still has the "ability" to win at dice.

 

His Ta'veren quality didnt make him lucky from the word go as far as the books say. Him being Ta'veren isnt any different from Perrins. Its what happens to him after becoming Ta'veren that made him permanently lucky in random situations, not being Ta'veren itself. No reason to believe otherwise.

He was always lucky, but he didn't become super-lucky until after being healed from the effects of the Dagger.

 

Because if he had ever experienced any luck other than regular luck he wouldnt be completely surprised by that luck returning.

I have never said that he was super-lucky before being healed. In fact, I have said the very opposite.

 

For his baseline luck to increase would be abnormally lucky. He doesnt get any luckier until the dagger shows up and nothing can disprove that.

He isn't super-lucky at any time before being healed from the effects of the Dagger. We don't know that his luck increased precisely at the time when he picked up the Dagger.

 

What started this off then? Back the idea up with a cause please.

I don't know. It's not the only thing I don't know about WoT, or the real world for that matter. We don't have all the answers. In neither the real universe, nor the WoT universe.  ;)

 

He didnt notice any decrease in luck ever between all this, so theres no point believing something was holding his luck back at all. Nothing supports the idea, it is based purely on speculation.

I haven't speculated. I'm just pointing out that there are all kinds of possibilities.

 

Then please tell me what that something is!!!!!

No, because I don't know. Ta'veren, the Horn or the Dagger could all be important in some way or another. Probably other things also...

 

People said Artur Hawkwing was lucky because they dont understand how Ta'veren works like we do.

No, people said that he was lucky because he was lucky. And we don't know how ta'veren works.  :)

[dholm]

That's just not true, unless you're using weighted dice. You'd lose just as many as you win, on average, assuming fair dice and no cheating. Mat kept winning.

Mat said "there were times with Hurin when 6 or 8 tosses in a row went my way". If I played with someone during 10 days, 60 tosses every day, then I would be expected to win 6 in a row (or more than that) 3 or 4 times during that time. Regular dice, no special designs. No cheating in any other way.

 

Assuming there's a fifty percent chance that you win (which, given that there are two players and the rules are the same for each player, is natural), the chance of you winning six in a row is, on average, .50^6 or 1.5625%. Over six hundred tosses, you'd get it once, on average.

 

So, no. You're wrong and drop it.

[Alghar Khan]

Assuming there's a fifty percent chance that you win (which, given that there are two players and the rules are the same for each player, is natural), the chance of you winning six in a row is, on average, .50^6 or 1.5625%. Over six hundred tosses, you'd get it once, on average.

 

So, no. You're wrong and drop it.

OK, 60 tosses every day for 10 days. That's 10 times 6 every day. 10/(2^6) of getting 6 in a row, if we only take those "blocks" of 6 in a row. But that's not the only way of getting 6 in a row, since we have those series of n in a row that falls "in between" the "blocks". We have 9 such chances for the 6 in a row.

 

Every "in between" has a 1 in 4 chance of getting 2 in a row (one from each "neighbour block"). The expected rate is 9/4 times every day. From there we will go in two directions to build our series. Meaning, one step in both directions for each calculated chance. Every loss ends the series in that direction. Win/win (each direction) gives 4 in a row, and win/lose + lose/win gives 3 in a row. Those chances that end in 6 in a row, from every 9/4 chance, will give us (0.25*0.25)+(0.25*0.5*0.5)+(0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5)=0.1875. Meaning, we have (9/4)*0.1875+(10/64) of getting at least 6 in a row every day - if we ignore the "overlap" between the "blocks" and the "in betweens".

 

 

Overlap between "(9/4)*0.1875" and "(10/64)" makes an adjustment necessary:

 

((9/4)*0.1875+(10/64))-2.25*(0.5^5+0.25*0.5^4+0.25^2*0.5^3+0.25^3*0.5^2+0.25^4*0.5)=0.44

 

OOPSSS, this means that I’ve not calculated correctly before. The correct number of expected “6 in a row or more” during a 10 day period is actually 4 or 5 times. Scratch what I said before.

 

 

 

 

6 (or more) in a row, caused by win/win in ends: 2.25*(0.25*0.25)+(8/64)=0.2656

 

6 (or more) in a row, caused by win in only one end: 2.25*((0.25*0.5*0.5)+(0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5))+(2/64)= 0.3125  "ignoring overlap"

 

 

6 (or more) in a row, caused by win/win in ends: 0.25 gives 8 in a row (or more); 0.5*0.5 gives 8 in a row (or more); 0.5*0.5 gives 7 in a row; and 0.25 gives 6 in a row.

 

6 (or more) in a row, caused by win in only one end: 0.5*0.5 gives 8 in a row (or more); 0.5*0.5 gives 7 in a row; and 0.5 gives 6 in a row.

 

 

Expected occasions (each day) with 6  in a row: 0.2656*0.25+0.3125*0.5=0.22      "2 or 3 times expected"

 

 

Expected occasions (each day) with 7 in a row: 0.2656*(0.5*0.5)+0.3125*(0.5*0.5)-2.25*0.5^5=0.07     "0 or 1 times"

 

 

Expected occasions (each day) with 8 (or more) in a row: 0.2656*(0.25+0.5*0.5)+0.3125*(0.5*0.5)-(0.136-0.07)=0.14    "1 or 2 times"

 

 

[Alghar Khan]

At least 6 in a row, both directions possible:

win/win 0.25                                          gives 8 (or more) in a row

win/lose+lose/win 0.5        -> win 0.5               gives 8 (or more) in a row

                                  -> lose 0.5              gives 7 in a row

lose/lose  0.25                                       gives 6 in a row

 

At least 6 in a row, only one direction possible:

win 0.5                      -> win 0.5               gives 8 (or more) in a row

                                 -> lose 0.5              gives 7 in a row

lose 0.5                                              gives 6 in a row

 

 

[dholm]

.... huh.

 

Okay, clearly I hadn't thought it through. You have my apologies.

[Alghar Khan]

No worries.

[OptimusPrime]

get a dictionary and look up chance and luck. luck is a synonym for chance.

chance: 1- apparent absence of of cause or design; destiny; fortune

2- a happening; fortuitous event; accident /3- possibility of an occurance; uncertainity; hazard; risk; gamble /4- possibility; the ratio of probability of a thing happening to its not happening /5- opportunity; favorable circumstances / SYN- accident,fortuity, hazard, fortune, casualty, luck

Luck: 1- the seemily chance happening of events which affect one; fortune; lot; fate /2- good fortune; success, prosperity, advantage/

so you take the spinning around example you like and it is chance ...it is random.. there was no plan or design

 

Those definitions dont involve sources of evil being the source, or a reality-correcting effect. Neither are relevent.

 

Ta'veren is fate, as in, a greater design behind it. So while it looks like luck or chaos and while it makes the unlikely likely, it works towards that in the greater scheme of things. Mats luck that makes him different only applies in random situations and not anywhere else. This didnt happen before, battles are not truly random in the sense where there are no deciding factors.

 

Rand was born channeler =Perrin a wolfbrother =Mat was born lucky

 

Yes, normal lucky. The sort of lucky that would only cause Rand to think "Mat is the lucky one" and not "Mats supernatural luck must make him the reason Moiraine and Lan turn p in the first place."

 

Mat's first appearance of his luck, even though we don't get a pov, i feel is when they had to fight the Trollocs the first time after leaving EF. Perrin and Rand have weapons and barely stay on their horses and hold them off. you than have Mat no weapon, hooked in a noose in a group of Trollocs comes out with no injury. he than shakes himself and you can picture him saying "i'm a flaming lucky bastard". and thats the same time his old blood kicked in

 

That is heavily biased towards your own oppinion. Maybe you can picture him saying that, but I dont remember ever thinking of him saying Im a lucky bastard. Nor anything that extreme until after he was recovered from the daggers taint. He was nearly dead after all.

 

Maybe. Mat still has the "ability" to win at dice.

 

Numerous times have I pointed out that dice are not the only thing we are looking at that makes Mats luck different. Stop ignoring what is ruining your theory. Mat only notices his random luck after the dagger played its part. Before that he didnt have random luck, but normal luck.

 

I don't know. It's not the only thing I don't know about WoT, or the real world for that matter. We don't have all the answers. In neither the real universe, nor the WoT universe

 

We do have the answers, you just dont like admitting you cant fill that exact hole in your theory, and it is the reason why you will never prove it. The evidence is there, Mat isnt daft and I trust his judgement on this because he has been right several times on it.

 

No, people said that he was lucky because he was lucky. And we don't know how ta'veren works. 

 

Yes we do. It is obvious, the Pattern weaves people around the Ta'veren in order to aid them in the best way the Wheel sees fit. That means the Wheel and the Pattern are deciding factors and so while on the surface it looks random, like people happen to be in the right place at the right time, it is not purely random because the person travelled there usually for a reason. Like, Moiraine and Lan turning up just in time to help the Two Rivers, while a lucky coincedence, was definitely not random. Mats luck becomes a deciding factor when none exist, even in situations that the Pattern doesnt deem important. Dice games (but not cards, as seen in the books and taken note of by Mat, because a deck of cards is not randomly dealt in the true sense), tracking someone completely randomly and finding them, these are not the same as Ta'veren. They become conscious events Mat brings about and knows he will succeed in, Ta'veren doesnt happen like that.

 

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Then please tell me what that something is!!!!!

No, because I don't know. Ta'veren, the Horn or the Dagger could all be important in some way or another. Probably other things also...

 

So now you at least acknowledge that Ta'veren, the Horn or the Dagger could be the cause. Thats the first step. The second is to drop the Horn from the list becuase nothing supports it. The third is to drop Ta'veren because it doesnt fit. The fourth is to not bother dragging anything else into it because it was the daggers taint, or what was left of it, that made Mat supernaturally lucky. You are clutching at the grass at the edge of the cliff like Asmodean, that tuft of grass being your attempt to throw it wide open beyond the Horn, Dagger and Ta'veren. Admit, of the three main suspects, two have fallen. Mats baseline luck is not something that applies only to random situations because if baseline luck were to increase, that makes it supernatural, which you deny being part of your theory.

 

Fill the holes or admit defeat.

[Alghar Khan]

Yes, normal lucky.

Still, he was above average. According to the books. And that was in Emond's Field. I'm sure the Wheel considered him more important later on, when he left his place of birth and became a major player.

 

I don't know. It's not the only thing I don't know about WoT, or the real world for that matter. We don't have all the answers. In neither the real universe, nor the WoT universe

We do have the answers, you just dont like admitting you cant fill that exact hole in your theory, and it is the reason why you will never prove it. The evidence is there, Mat isnt daft and I trust his judgement on this because he has been right several times on it.

No, and I can't fill the holes in your theories either. We don't know enough.

 

So now you at least acknowledge that Ta'veren, the Horn or the Dagger could be the cause. Thats the first step. The second is to drop the Horn from the list becuase nothing supports it. The third is to drop Ta'veren because it doesnt fit. The fourth is to not bother dragging anything else into it because it was the daggers taint, or what was left of it, that made Mat supernaturally lucky.

I've never excluded anything. Anything is possible, if the Wheel wills.

 

[Alghar Khan]

I wonder what made Arthur Hawkwing lucky?

[Mr. Dragon]

Mats luck becomes a deciding factor when none exist

 

Not so, when Mat looks for Nyn, Elayne and Egw in Tear before the stone falls, he comes across a man (forgotten his name) who is using loaded dice. There is an significant factor in favour of the man yet Mat still comes out best.

[OptimusPrime]

Yes, normal lucky.

Still, he was above average. According to the books. And that was in Emond's Field. I'm sure the Wheel considered him more important later on, when he left his place of birth and became a major player.

 

And above average does not always mean supernatural luck, it can mean mundane luck, the sort of luck that didnt make Rand isntantly think Mat was the one Moiraine and Lan would decide was the important one.

 

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I don't know. It's not the only thing I don't know about WoT, or the real world for that matter. We don't have all the answers. In neither the real universe, nor the WoT universe

We do have the answers, you just dont like admitting you cant fill that exact hole in your theory, and it is the reason why you will never prove it. The evidence is there, Mat isnt daft and I trust his judgement on this because he has been right several times on it.

No, and I can't fill the holes in your theories either. We don't know enough.

 

We know enough to know nothing that has been shown to us fits apart from the taint of the dagger. You are just arguing for the sake of it.

 

I've never excluded anything. Anything is possible, if the Wheel wills.

 

Maybe the Wheel wills that you ignore everything that points towards the dagger and try pulling anything else into it just to not agree that its the dagger. Nothing else fits, with both the timing and the nature.

[Phariah]

sigh.....

Look at the nature of SL taint. He gained those powers because he wanted them. Randome vs regularity is exactly the same as chaos vs order.

SL's taint is suspicion, hatred, disease, and rot. nothing about luck there. He did gain powers because he wanted them he gained them from his possession of Fain and their mixing. he still has no idea of what everything he can do and when listing what he knows he never mentions luck. but he can cause disease and suspicion with a touch so ya you are right his abilities are the same as the SL taint. so he gained luck a random occuring thing which he can't control and comes and goes in waves to combat chaos. random chance vs chaos does not add up to chaos vs order.

 

True there hasn't been anything from Fain hinting at this, but i find that to be irrelevent. His SL abilities are there to oppose the Shadow's.

His abilities are there for corrupting, destroying, and manipulating. He is doin what he damn well wants to further his own greed and hatred. He is fighting Rand atm not the Shadow and if he kills Rand the DO will win. How is that fighting the Shadow? all he is, is a loose cannon thats why the Shadow wants him dead. they don't want him screwing with their plans. His abilities "a bit of something from the DO, perhaps a bit from Aridhol. it had been there after he had stopped being just Padan Fain."

 

Randomness wasn't involved in either case, not pure randomness. not the sort of randomness that fits with the luck.

Random is random, pure chance. there are no degrees or levels if its random it is random. both examples were random, subject to chance.

 

If he was always this abnormally lucky, then after being healed of the dagger he would think to himself "my luck is back to the way it was"

as i stated in my previous post he made comments as to his just needing to dice to get money to fill his purse. and he states previous to his fight with the brothers "his luck would not even have to be back" and during "luck stay with me".

 

If the dagger was suppressing his luck, why did he end up being luckier than he was in EF.

the same reason why Perrin grew in his abilities as a wolfbrother. the same as why Rand grew in channelling. it wasn't developed fully.

 

the luck fits with Aridhols intentions

so the luck fits with suspicion and hatred and disease and rot and death.

 

with things like unweighted dice or anything else that has a deciding factor

his luck was in effect in the fight with the brothers, there were deciding factors there. and his luck was in effect when he gambled with Comar and he was using weighted dice. Mats thoughts "if his luck was in to this extent, perhaps it was time to push it. a voice in the back of his head told him to think, but he was too tired to think" and after that " luck sweet luck stay with me" he won with weighted dice and he was random in his approach no planning. but there were deciding factors present.

 

Mat's luck that makes him different only applies in random situations and not anywhere else. this doesn't happen before, battles are not truly random in the sense where there are no deciding factors.

so than your saying Mat is confusing the fact his luck in battles and dice and its just dice he is lucky and in battles it's taveren? but he states his luck is in both so whats the truth?

 

It was not his taveren because it doesn't alter luck at all, it alters chance. there is a differance.

so as you see this makes the meaning of luck and chance i posted quite revelent. there is no difference. and you agree in your own response taveren is fate. as you see a meaning of luck is fate.

 

most of your proof is nothing more than assumptions, smoke screens and stories.( like the whole SL and Mordeth luck anti-taveren fairy tale ) there is no solid proof in anything. you have no fact to back the magical abilities of a man made taint to produce anything involving luck. so all in all you have not smashed anything at all.

 

but than lets see the whole Mat was lucky in EF. he becomes taveren. he gets the dagger which than supresses his luck.( he was fated to get the dagger so it would rot his brain. remember taveren manipulates the individual as it does others to fit the pattern. and as we seen it was a random situation, a chance that Mat took the dagger. thus forcing him to make his choice to go to the doorway in Tear for help. which in turn led him to the doorway in Rhuidean. that was all fated, woven in the web.) no luck is seen to increase as the dagger supresses it. than he is partially healed which allows some luck to come thru. than he is fully healed which allows his luck to finally be realized. his luck grew as Rand's channeling grew. as Perrin's wolfbrother abilities grew.

 

timing fits as the dagger people like to say.

[Mr Ares]

I would be expected to win 6 in a row (or more than that) 3 or 4 times during that time.

So? We don't know how many times in that period Mat did it. Maybe he did it ten times. That's abnormally lucky. And Mat himself notes the increase in his luck.

 

All ta'veren experience chance-twisting effects that are good for the good cause. The special thing with Mat (and Arthur Hawkwing) is that he can win at dice.

Mat's luck and his ta'veren are not the same thing. His luck helps him win at dice. His ta'veren does other things.

 

We don't know that for sure.

Yes, we do, and you have provided no evidence against it.

We've got nothing happening at that particular time in the story that can confirm Mat's suspicions.

Nothing that denies them either. So all you're doing is ignoring evidence in the books in favour of your own crackpot theory.

 

Even though he became a ta'veren in Emond's Field...

But he was lucky before that.

 

the dagger causes his luck to decrease a set amount

Denial of the evidence. We are never told that his luck decreases, it is never so much as hinted at. Just that it improved after he got the dagger.

 

Mat has always been lucky.

As he hasn't always been ta'veren, you are thus admitting that his luck isn't ta'veren.

 

where is his abnormal luck from when he picked up the dagger?

Shown in Shienar and TV.

besides the rambling admittance of it's the dagger

He doesn't admit that, troll, as you would no if you actually read the thread. He thinks it might be, but that's not an admittance.

 

Fain was a shadow touched enhanced  man that was possessed / melded with Mordeth. the dagger didn't give him powers. Mordeth was already known from the history of SL to cause suspicion and hatred. whatever else he gained was from melding with Fain.

But many of his powers do not clearly come from either man - finding Rand, yes, that's what Shai'tan did to him, his ability to spread suspicion is from Mordeth, but the illusions, or torture Fades? We do not see the root in either man. Touched by SL, he is more than the sum of his parts. So you cannot rule out SL's being able to give abilities to those that survive it.

no where is it said to be some luck inducing magic.

Two touched by it, both described as lucky. Coincidence, or something more sinister?

 

and it isn't far fetched to see a tainted object of decay/disease that holds to neither light or shadow corrupting his connection to his luck.

It is farfetched to toss out the evidene in favour of the books, as you so frequently do, in favour of whatever you fancy. He didn't have a connection to his luck, he was just a lucky guy, who got luckier after picking up something from SL, and luckier again after it was Healed. You have said nothing to counter that. Your every point is hollow. Insignificant.

 

so that after Moiraine heals him and wards him, the first time he gambles

If it was the first time he gambled, then you cannot date it to the Healing. Furthermore, why should Healing affect luck? Many are Healed. Mat was, on several occasions - repeatedly on the road to TV, for instance. Mat's luck should have changed frequently during that period, then. It doesn't, according to him. We have nothing to indicate that it does. Changes in his luck do not correlate to his being healed, nor do other Healings correspond to changes in luck. We need something unique to Mat for an effect unique to Mat. It cannot be Healing. Unless you claim this was some sort of special Healing, made ot deal with the dagger...in which case, you admit the dagger's involvement.

 

he didn't become super-lucky until after being healed from the effects of the Dagger.

His luck came in three stages. Before SL. With the dagger. After the Healing. Each better than the last. Can you come up with a theory that addresses the two increases? Not so far. So far, the only thing that does is the dagger. The only thing that covers all the facts is the dagger. The best theory is the dagger. Denying it is silly. Give up or agree, but your argument hasn't gone anywhere, nor will it.

 

Ta'veren, the Horn or the Dagger could all be important in some way or another.

The Horn makes no sense. The timing doesn't fit. Mat knows it isn't ta'veren. The dagger is the only thing we have. Admit it.

 

I'm sure the Wheel considered him more important later on

Why didn't the Wheel increase his luck when he became ta'veren? Why the delay? Why increase his luck at all, in such a specific way? Take the idea that he's lucky because the Wheel needs him to be rich in order to finance his army. Why does it make him lucky at dice, less lucky at cards, and his luck doesn't work at all on horses? Why is it so important to the Pattern that he be unbeatable at dice and only dice?

 

he gets the dagger which than supresses his luck.

No it doesn't. Stop ignoring the evidence. The suppression theory doesn't work. It contradicts the facts. Now, the first time we see Mat gamble is after Healing and after the dagger. Yet Healing, aside from being non-sensical, isn't supported by anything. The dagger is. According to Mat, the timing came after SL, not after Healing or anything else. SL. The dagger. Stop trolling.

[kamros]

Mr Ares, how come anyone who doesn't agree with you is a troll?

 

 

[Mr Ares]

Mr Ares, how come anyone who doesn't agree with you is a troll?

They're not. Anyone who disagrees with me at great length, ignores all the evidence that says their theory is comlete crap and keeps trolling is a troll.