Mat's Luck and Channeling

[Thor]

your evidence are your own imagination.  and frankly, i don't care about evidfence, i care only about facts.

 

fact: rand and perin's abilities are due to their genes/ta'vereness.

 

therefore, mat's luck is also due to the same mechanic, and not some pathetic dagger which can't even kill a wimp of a wanabe swordsman.

 

Meaning what exactly?

 

meaning fain couldn't even kill rand with it.

 

You ignore most of the things from the books. The dagger didnt kill Rand because the evil in the old wound supresses the new evil wound. Damer Flynn confirms this, and Cadsuane comments on both wounds being the same after the Cleansing. Look at what the dagger did to Kisman, and then see if you can call it a pathetic dagger, and also maybe you should read the books before judging characters. Rand is not a puny swordsman and you know it. Also, Rands swordsman skill level has no impression on his vulnerability to the dagger, so dont link them together either.

 

This is getting too silly. People dodge around the truth way too accurately for them to not know it for the truth it is, and they do it either because it proves them wrong or for the sake of arguing.

 

yeah right, he had the whole body to target and he just HAD to slice on that wound.  don't give me this crap about the dagger giving good luck please, because if that isn't bad luck for fain, i don't know what is.

[Mr Ares]

it has the same evidence as the dagger luck theory, it is all based on timing

Except the timing doesn't fit. So, it owrks if you ignore all the evidence. The dagger works because all the evidence is in its favour.

 

Mat's quote could even be explained away as fishing or at very least he blaims the dagger

No it couldn't.

[Alghar Khan]

"He had always won more than he lost, as far as he could remember, and there had been times with Hurin, and in Shienar, when six or eight tosses in a row won for him. Tonight every toss won. Every toss."

 

"There were times", meaning that it was unusual. If Mr Ares had gambled with Hurin, he could well have had 6 tosses in a row going his way. Even without being ta'veren (I take it he isn't one  ;D  ). So, Mat was always lucky. Even before the Dagger. After picking it up, his luck still wasn't extreme.

 

Then, after being healed from the effects of the Dagger, he all of a sudden becomes extremely lucky. He wins every toss. Every toss.

 

Evidence says that the Dagger might have halted/suppressed/scrambled his luck in some way or another.

[Mr Ares]

Evidence says that the Dagger might have halted/suppressed/scrambled his luck in some way or another.

No, evidence says it made him luckier.

[Durinax]

the funny thing is that both the suppression and increasing dagger theories correspond to almost the same times, but suppression cannot be right according to Mr Ares because it has more evidence due to timing, and it doesnt have a mat quote taking out of context

[dholm]

The only aspect of the suppression theory that makes sense is that he becomes luckier after getting rid of the dagger. If it suppressed his luck, why did he get luckier after picking it up?

 

I think I'm more or less convinced it was the dagger somehow, especially after that RJ quote where he referenced Mat's luck as coming from the Dark One "in a way".

[Durinax]

Like stated previously the only spot where we see him do anything that required luck was in Fal Dara in TGH early on when they are all dicing, there is nothing to say he is extraordinarily lucky, one of the guys simply said that mat should give them a chance to win their money back, meaning he could have gotten on a hot streak when they started putitng more money on the table or something. But my theory is that when Moraine tried to heal it in Caemlyn that she actually did some damage and weakened the suppressive effect of the dagger allowing mat to become luckier, until the taint returned as strong as ever and he was almost on his deathbed, unable to do anything

[Alghar Khan]

The only aspect of the suppression theory that makes sense is that he becomes luckier after getting rid of the dagger.

Yeah, he got extremely lucky after being healed from the effects of the Dagger. Before that he hadn't experienced anything even remotely comparable.

 

So, the vast majority (much, much more than the rest) of his luck came after getting rid of the Dagger. If timing is the evidence we should go by, then timing points toward the Dagger halting/suppressing/scrambling his luck.

[Hybrid]

Lead me to believe that Mat always had some intrinsic luck, though no more than slightly above average at best before leaving the TR, with his uber-luck a result of the dagger and the subsequent attempts to heal and the successful healing from it.

I agree.

 

If timing is the evidence we should go by, then timing points toward the Dagger halting/suppressing/scrambling his luck.

Mat picked up the dagger.  Mat got luckier.  Thus, the dagger suppressed his luck.  Yes, it's all becoming clear now....

 

[Durinax]

If timing is the evidence we should go by, then timing points toward the Dagger halting/suppressing/scrambling his luck.

 

Mat picked up the dagger.  Mat got luckier.  Thus, the dagger suppressed his luck.  Yes, it's all becoming clear now....

uhm can you try to find a quote or time sequence that supports that the dagger doesnt suppress luck, cause based on our evidence of timings, specifically when he has luck before moraines attempt at healing, or some evidence that proves moraine did not effect how the dagger was connected to mat

[dholm]

The only aspect of the suppression theory that makes sense is that he becomes luckier after getting rid of the dagger.

Yeah, he got extremely lucky after being healed from the effects of the Dagger. Before that he hadn't experienced anything even remotely comparable.

 

So, the vast majority (much, much more than the rest) of his luck came after getting rid of the Dagger. If timing is the evidence we should go by, then timing points toward the Dagger halting/suppressing/scrambling his luck.

You fail to answer the question. If the dagger suppressed his luck, why did he become luckier (as in Fal Dara and on the road towards Tar Valon with Hurin) after he picked up the dagger? As Mr Ares has noted so often, Mat himself links the increase in his luck with him getting the dagger.

[Durinax]

Mat's luck increases because of moraines attempt to heal it damaged the link and thus lifted the luck stifling effect for a while

 

earlier in the topic the full quote was stated I believe, which states a few seconds later mat saying it must have been the healing that made him lucky, I dont have the books on me so I cant find it myself but I believe that he goes throguh a cycle of possibilities and cycles which one he attributes the luck too

[Mr Ares]

the funny thing is that both the suppression and increasing dagger theories correspond to almost the same times, but suppression cannot be right according to Mr Ares because it has more evidence due to timing, and it doesnt have a mat quote taking out of context

In other words, suppression has no evidence to support it. Not timing, not quotes. Nothing. Just some random crap that someone came up with and refused to let go of despite being shot down. Repeatedly.

 

If timing is the evidence we should go by, then timing points toward the Dagger halting/suppressing/scrambling his luck.

Only if you ignore the first jump. His luck increased after he picked it up. No matter how much you squirm, you can't get around that.

 

Mat's luck increases because of moraines attempt to heal it damaged the link and thus lifted the luck stifling effect for a while

There is nothing to support that. Indeed, it contradicts the evidence we are given. It increases when he picks up the dagger, not when Moiraine Heals him.

 

but I believe that he goes throguh a cycle of possibilities and cycles which one he attributes the luck too

That would be the quote where he thinks anything is better than the dagger? So he is grasping at straws, desperate for it to be something, anything else. And that still fails to address that he first became lucky after picking up the dagger, by his own admission. The timing doesn't fit for the Healing, not in Caemlyn. So you have one out of the two increases in his luck coinciding with Healing, compared to both jumps relating to events with the dagger. Nor do you have any quotes from the book to support you. The dagger has more going for it than any other theory.

[Durinax]

Mat's luck increases because of moraines attempt to heal it damaged the link and thus lifted the luck stifling effect for a while

There is nothing to support that. Indeed, it contradicts the evidence we are given. It increases when he picks up the dagger, not when Moiraine Heals him.

quote to support this?

[Mr Ares]

quote to support this?

Read the thread. Posted numerous times.

[Alghar Khan]

If timing is the evidence we should go by, then timing points toward the Dagger halting/suppressing/scrambling his luck.

Only if you ignore the first jump. His luck increased after he picked it up. No matter how much you squirm, you can't get around that.

His first "jump" was pathetic. Really pathetic, especially considering the fact that he was always lucky. No need to squirm. The "second" jump was the real one. That's the timing that could really be worthy of interest.

 

Conclusion: if timing is the evidence we should go by (as Mr Ares has claimed repeatedly), then we have all the reasons in the world to suspect that the Dagger halted/suppressed/scrambled his luck in some way or another.

[dholm]

Winning six or eight tosses in a row is pathetic?

 

There is no evidence the dagger suppressed his luck. Mat doesn't time it to the Healing he receives from Moiraine, but from the moment he picked it up. It's not impossible, it just doesn't have any support whatsoever, and it has something that contradicts it.

[Alghar Khan]

Winning six or eight tosses in a row is pathetic?

He was always lucky. Then he "jumped" up to were he could say "there were times with Hurin when six tosses went my way". Yeah, that's pathetic. He played a lot with Hurin, if Mr Ares can say so. He should have won six tosses in a row occasionally, even if he hadn't had any "jump" at all. That so called "jump" must have been a pathetic one.

 

There is no evidence the dagger suppressed his luck. Mat doesn't time it to the Healing he receives from Moiraine, but from the moment he picked it up. It's not impossible, it just doesn't have any support whatsoever, and it has something that contradicts it.

There is more evidence that it halted/suppressed/scrambled his luck than that it increased his luck. Read chapter 30 of TDR.

[dholm]

Which proves nothing. We know that his luck increased after he was Healed from the connection to the dagger, but we don't know why.

[Alghar Khan]

Which proves nothing. We know that his luck increased after he was Healed from the connection to the dagger, but we don't know why.

Correct, we don't know why Mat was lucky in EF or why Hawkwing was lucky. We don't know how these things work. We're not meant to know.  :)

[TrollocFodder]

You don't even have that. And it is Mat that draws the conclusion. We are given the answer in the text. Why disregard it?

 

Because Mat coming to a conclusion, and the correctness of that conclusion, are two very different matters.

[TrollocFodder]

Mat gets the dagger from Shadar Logoth, but on the road with Rand (and initially Thom) he shows no evidence of increased luck. He and Rand struggle to get beds and food (why not dice for money if he's so lucky?)

 

The first bit of significant luck could be attributed to him or Rand (tEOTW chap 32) when lightning blows a hole in the building as Gode is after them. Mat loses his sight initially, and his eyes hurt for some time after.

 

In Chap 42 (still no significant luck attributable to Mat alone), he and Rand are in The Queen's Blessing when Moiraine arrives and heals Mat, but not completely

"The binding has lasted too long, and grown too strong. That must be unknotted in Tar Valon; it is beyond me, or any lone Aes Sedai, even with an angreal."

 

The first real mention of Mat, dice, and winning comes in The Great Hunt, Chapter 3.

"Rand opened his eyes to see his friends [Mat and Perrin] straightening up out of the knot of dicers...

...One of the men called 'Here, southlander, you can't quit while you're winning'"

Matt says: "I seem to have the luck with dice, I can hardly touch them without winning"

 

First thing - Perrin was dicing too, but not winning the way Mat was. Conclusion, Mat's luck at dice is not due to being ta'veren.

 

Second - Mr Ares is right to look for coincidences in the times of events, I just think he has (just as Mat did) associated the wrong events.

 

My view is:

1) Moiraine partially heals Mat, Mat gets quite lucky

2) A bus-load of Aes Sedai heal Mat and separate him from the dagger, Mat becomes the luckiest man alive

 

Got to conclude his luck is something to do with what happened in the healing/separating

[Mr. Dragon]

The first bit of significant luck could be attributed to him or Rand (tEOTW chap 32) when lightning blows a hole in the building as Gode is after them. Mat loses his sight initially, and his eyes hurt for some time after.

 

 

The lightening was Rand channeling and was the reason why Rand got sick a few days after, if anything, it was unlucky for Mat as he was looking right at the wall when the lightening hit and so was patially blinded for a few days.

 

 

The first real mention of Mat, dice, and winning comes in The Great Hunt, Chapter 3.

"Rand opened his eyes to see his friends [Mat and Perrin] straightening up out of the knot of dicers...

...One of the men called 'Here, southlander, you can't quit while you're winning'"

Matt says: "I seem to have the luck with dice, I can hardly touch them without winning"

 

First thing - Perrin was dicing too, but not winning the way Mat was. Conclusion, Mat's luck at dice is not due to being ta'veren.

 

Ta'vern strength comes in waves so it could be that Mat is particuly strong or Perrin particuly weak at that time. Also Rand is in close proximity which could also be having an effect.

 

[dholm]

There's no way Mat's luck is associated with channeling in any way. He has worn his foxhead ter'angreal daily since he got it with seemingly no adverse effects on his luck whatsoever.

 

If his luck was affected by him being Healed, it had to do with the dagger, not the channeling.

[Durinax]

the channelling may of done something to his luck, since it potentially could have reacted in a odd way with the taint