Tar Valon, Seanchan and Truce related Questions

[lgautam]

 

In KoD Tuon states that she'd like to make Tar Valon her capital. Together with Egwene's dream, I suppose that means the Seanchan will be attacking the Tower sometime soon.

But what about Rand's truce? His attempts to negotiate one with Tuon are obviously going to fail. But how can the Seanchan refuse a truce when the Last Battle is on their heads??

Also, the Seanchan are currently in Ebou Dar, Tanchico and Amadicia. That makes it a pretty long march to Tar Valon, crossing Andor.

Any ideas about what going to happen?

I hope Rand will make some sort of deal in which he gives the Seanchan a free hand with the Tower. Tuon will definitely want all the Aes Sedai 'decently collared' before TD.

I'd love to see a confrontation between Egwene and Tuon!

[DemandredFO]

There are many threads on various parts of this question, just use the search function.  As for the truce Rand will get a truce but the attack by To'Raken is already underway and I suspect that the outcome of the attack in conjunction with the treaty will be why Egwene is VERY pissed with Rand.

[Luckers]

To beging with, here is what we actually know about the attack from the books.

 

Instigation and Planning

 

The Seanchan first began practical planning for an attack on the Tower after the incident with Elayne and the unweaving of the gateway destroyed the Kin's farm at the end of LoC. Here is the quote from Karede.

 

He had been raised banner-general for his small success in the battles with Asha'men in days when there were few had achieved any, and now, because he had commanded against men who could channel, some thought that meant he had wisdom to share on fighting marath'damane. No one had had to do that in centuries, but since the so-called Aes Sedai had revealed their unknown weapon a few leagues from where he sat a great deal of thought had been put into how to cripple their power.

 

[CoT - The Tale of a Doll - pgs 154 and 155]

 

He thinks this whilst considering requests for his thoughts on various plans--ones for Illian, and the Aiel amongst them. Effectively what is happening here is he is reviewing other peoples plans and offering his thoughts on what they suggest. Here's how i know.

 

But those questions would be decided elsewhere, had probably already been decided. His observations would only be used in the infighting over who controlled what after the return.

 

[CoT - The Tale of a Doll - pg 155]

 

Effectively, it beuracratic bullcrap--to be pulled out when a particular lord or lady wanted to prove she had been working on the behalf of the Empire. In particular, the plan he was reviewing in reguards to the Aes Sedai was developed by Lord Abaldar Yulan, Captain of the Air (who commands the raken and to'raken of the Forerunners, and who since the Return has commanded all the air forces since the Return's Captain of the Air died on the trip from Seanchan)--which we know from several sources.

 

First there is the seeker that interupts Karede and eyes the requisition for Karede's thoughts on the plan to deal with the Aes Sedai and says...

 

"You are involved with Lord Yulan's plans Banner-General Karede? I would not have thought the Deathwatch Guards would be involved in that."

 

Karede moved the two bronze map-weights that were shaped like lions and allowed the map of Tar Valon to roll shut. The other had not been unroled yet. "You would have to ask Lord Yulan."

 

[CoT - The Tale of a Doll - pgs 156]

 

So, out of fear of the power of the Aes Sedai's 'weapon' the Seanchan turned their attentions to planning an attack against Tar Valon, and Lord Yulan, the commander of the air based forces was the one who concocted the plan.

 

What is the Plan

 

From the fact that Lord Yulan planned it, we can guess what the plan entails--a to'raken based attack against the Tower launched either out of Tarabon through the Caralain Grass, or north out of Altara, though that would involve passing through Andor and Murandy, which would be risky. Pigeons fly faster than to'raken, and the Seanchan know some Aes Sedai know how to travel. The Grass on the other hand is the most unpopulated place in Randland.

 

To'raken can curry up to twelve people one hundred miles in a day. One thousand To'raken could land a force of twelve thousand on the top of the Tower in a little over a month completely undetected. If say 3,000 of those were damane and 4,000 were sul'dam, with a supplementary force of 6,000 soldiers then this is a force capable of taking and holding the Tower--though they couldn't manage the city--with the damane they are strong enough to hold their own, but they simply don't have the numbers to secure an area as large as the city.

 

But, they need only hold the city until a landbased army can be brought into back them up--from there caught between forces out of the Tower and forces assaulting the city itself they could win. It's not a perfect plan, and the Rebels make it even trickier, but its the best the Seanchan can manage.

 

Still, thats all guess work, what do we know of what is actually being done in preparation for this attack.

 

Enacting the Plan

 

As of KoD we know that they have already begun gathering the to'raken together for the assault. We are not sure exactly when they began gathering them--Galgan's comments are as follows.

 

"So long as you don't want the to'raken I have no objection. That plan must go forward. Altara is falling into our hands with barely a struggle, I'm not ready to move on Illian yet and we need to pacify Tarabon in a hurry." [KoD - Embers Falling on Dry Grass - pg45]

 

This is after Suroth commands raken to be sent to Interulde. The phrasing is ambiguos, it could mean either that the plan had already begun and must continue, or that it was about to begin. In any case we know it well and truly has begun when 17 days after that event Perrin and Tylee attempt to gather raken and discover the raken farms almost empty.

 

Tylee began. "I need to replace six raken, Captain, and eighteen morat'raken. And a full company of Groundlings. The one i had is somewhere in Amadacia heading west, and beyond finding."

 

Faloun winced. "Banner-General, if you have lost raken, you know everything has been striped to the bone because of...." His one eye flickered to Perrin, and he cleared his throat before going on. "You ask for three quarters the animals i have left. If you could possibly do with fewer, perhaps only one or two."

 

[KoD - A Manufactory - 299]

 

And, as I raised in the above comment, this does not relate to those sent to help with Interulde--at least not singularily--on the following page Perrin asks Tylee what sent the raken away and she avoids the question.

 

"What sent all the raken away?" he asked.

 

"We should have come here second or third." She replied swinging into the saddle. "I still have to aquire a'dam."

 

[KoD - A Manufactory - 301]

 

Tylee comments freely to Perrin about the Whitecloaks and issues with rebellion in Tarabon, and has no reason to conceal that raken were hunting Interulde's groups down--only the plan for the Tower needs to be concealed behind mystery.

 

When Will the Attack Begin?

 

It's only guesswork. Galgan's comments to Suroth happen on Aine 6, and Perrin's trip to the Manufactory on Aine 23, and the last scene with Egwene is also on Aine 23.

 

The to'raken can cover a hundred miles in a day, from the closest Seanchan held territory it would take around 15 days to reach the Tower (it being about 1,500 miles according to the map in the Guide) That means the attack could take place at any time, including that very night after Egwene's last chapter. I believe in terms of the book that we will see signs of their arrival at the end of the Prologue (and that Ewgene's dinner with Elaida will occur during the Prologue).

 

One final point, many raise the fact that Egwene saw a dark shape fly over the moon at the end of CoT and thought it a draghkar, but suggest it might be a raken scout. I didn't mention this because i have a feeling RJ shot it down in an interview, but still its there.

 

 

 

As to your questions.

 

But what about Rand's truce? His attempts to negotiate one with Tuon are obviously going to fail. But how can the Seanchan refuse a truce when the Last Battle is on their heads??

 

His attempts with to gain truce are not going to fail--its stated in prophecy that he will 'bind the nine moons to serve him'. Besides we've already seen Tuon ignore Aes Sedai being free in favour of more important goals. I suspect she will see Tarmon Gai'don as a more important goal.

 

Of course, in relation to the Tower attack, as shown above that is already underway and could occur as soon as the same night we last saw Egwene. My guess is Tuon will act to stop the fighting after the attack as a result of the Truce, which i suspect will involve a ceasation of all hostilities including leashing female channelers--That will be Tuon's compromise, Rand's will be not releasing the ones already leashed.

 

Of course thats guesswork. We know there will be dramas involved in the truce--for one, Ishamael's false prophecy about the Dragon kneeling to the Crystal Throne. Thats what makes it interesting to read.

 

Also, the Seanchan are currently in Ebou Dar, Tanchico and Amadicia. That makes it a pretty long march to Tar Valon, crossing Andor.

Any ideas about what going to happen?

 

I figure i answered that above.

 

I'd love to see a confrontation between Egwene and Tuon!

 

My guess is Tuon is the Seanchan woman who aids Egwene in her dream--or rather, that it is an army lead by Tuon--which is why the womans face changes, but the sword remains solid. I suspect that following the Seanchan attack there will be some form of Shadowspawn attack, and that as the result of the truce Tuon will arrive to lead the Seanchan forces in Tar Valon to join in the fight.

 

 

 

[lgautam]

Thanks for your post - it certainly answers my questions - and it's a great theory besides.

I guess I should've checked if there were any previous threads on this topic - my bad.

[Majsju]

One final point, many raise the fact that Egwene saw a dark shape fly over the moon at the end of CoT and thought it a draghkar, but suggest it might be a raken scout. I didn't mention this because i have a feeling RJ shot it down in an interview, but still its there.

 

What Egwene saw was a bat. RJ commented on that in his blog.

[ROB_88]

very big bat if it can be mistaken as a draghkar

[RobertAlexWillis]

No one in the books mistook it for a Draghkar, or a raken scout, or anything else ... just some of us over-anxious readers

[Kaznen]

If the seeker knows about an attack on TV pending, then Tuon knows about it.  By the time she get word that Rand wants a truce the army that was heading into a trap at Arad Doman will be crushed, and she has already seen her husband, and Rand's best friend, tear through the Seachan army with ease, and will have seen some of the advanced weapons the Dragonsworn will have, and she hasn't even suspected their most powerful. 

 

And the army of 5000 DS who turned back the army at Illian has now become 300,000 at least, with another in Arad Doman just like it.

 

A truce will sound very good, but if she with holds the TV raid, and it happens, then she will have violated the truce and bring the crushing fury of Rand down on her.  If she tells Rand about the impending attack he will help defeat the Seanchan at TV.

 

What will PO the AS is that Rand had the audacity to unite the world for TV without their permission.  But there is no way he would give anything the Seanchan don't already have away.  Tuon is not in a postion to bargain, the Seanchan are in a weakened postion that Rand could topple the return, forunately for the Seanchan he doesn't know it.

 

And they have no more forkroot.  Perrin took it all.

[Luckers]

If the seeker knows about an attack on TV pending, then Tuon knows about it.  By the time she get word that Rand wants a truce the army that was heading into a trap at Arad Doman will be crushed, and she has already seen her husband, and Rand's best friend, tear through the Seachan army with ease, and will have seen some of the advanced weapons the Dragonsworn will have, and she hasn't even suspected their most powerful. 

 

And the army of 5000 DS who turned back the army at Illian has now become 300,000 at least, with another in Arad Doman just like it.

 

A truce will sound very good, but if she with holds the TV raid, and it happens, then she will have violated the truce and bring the crushing fury of Rand down on her.  If she tells Rand about the impending attack he will help defeat the Seanchan at TV.

 

Your providing for the truce to come before the attack--but based on the timelines thats not likely. We know the attack was initiated (as in they began gathering forces) around Aine 6, and likely was launched as soon as full mobilization was managed. With To'raken travel time the actual attack itself could occur as soon as Aine 23. Tuon had not even returned to Ebou Dar by that stage, much less met with Rand.

 

The question is not will she proceed with the attack following the truce, its will she halt the attack in favour of the truce.

 

My guess is that she will agree to stop the attack, and travel with Rand in order to do so.

 

As for Tuon being in a position to bargain--she will likely think that she is, due to her 'prophecy' of the Dragon kneeling to the Crystal Throne. We know thats a fake, but she doesn't. Still ultimately Tuon is rational, they'll get past it, but i doubt it will be smoothly done.

 

And they have no more forkroot.  Perrin took it all.

 

From one manufactory. It was never actually stated that there arn't more--though the way they speak about it makes it sound that way.

[Kaznen]

The way Perrin was anal about wasting a few grains I think if there were more manufactories Perrin would have taken what they had as well.  The Banner-General would have known and the plan was a longshot to begin with.

 

And if they launched the TV attack from Tarabon they would still have to fly over the Mountains of Mist and Western Andor, including the Two Rivers.  And that many to'raken would be noticed.  And Elayne wouldn't dismiss the stories as peasant fanstasies.

 

I agree with you though, Luckers, the Seanchan don't know how screwed they are.  But the one thing in their favor is Rand doesn't know it either.

[Luckers]

The way Perrin was anal about wasting a few grains I think if there were more manufactories Perrin would have taken what they had as well.  The Banner-General would have known and the plan was a longshot to begin with.

 

Perrin was anal about every aspect of this plan--his wife was the point of it, after all. As I said, i agree the way they talk about it suggests there are no other siginificant manufacturies--but it is not stated. And there is a definate argument in not trying their luck twice with the Hands.

 

And if they launched the TV attack from Tarabon they would still have to fly over the Mountains of Mist and Western Andor, including the Two Rivers.  And that many to'raken would be noticed.  And Elayne wouldn't dismiss the stories as peasant fanstasies.

 

No, the most viable way would have been to fly slightly north, then pass through the Darkwood over the lake--from the Almoth Plain, and above the Two Rivers and Baerlon, then into the Caralain Grass, the most unpopulated region in the Westlands. Even if the Seanchan weren't aware of Baerlon and the Two Rivers--a considerable assumption--this course makes sense--flying through mountains would not be easy, flying over a lake and dropping down the cliff beyond would be much more simple.

 

 

 

[rhadamanthus]

I think the seanchan attack on TV will force the Aes Sedai to unite, taking Elaida down*.

 

As the attack rolls on, the truce will be made and Tuon will stop it, in effect giving Egwene her "lifeline".  Egwene will be royally ticked that Rand "saved her" and made a truce with that depraved seanchan culture.

 

*I can't wait for this.  I am beyond annoyed with Elaida.  I hope the beatdown is exquisitely detailed.

[Luckers]

I think the seanchan attack on TV will force the Aes Sedai to unite, taking Elaida down*.

 

As the attack rolls on, the truce will be made and Tuon will stop it, in effect giving Egwene her "lifeline".  Egwene will be royally ticked that Rand "saved her" and made a truce with that depraved seanchan culture.

 

*I can't wait for this.  I am beyond annoyed with Elaida.  I hope the beatdown is exquisitely detailed.

 

Indeed, if one pauses to think then the likely result of Egwene serving Elaida is Egwene ending in the cells and all those present being impressed with her.

 

Then consider that Elaida has taken rooms at the very top of the Tower. Specifically the Seachan plan to land on the top of the Tower--she will be amongst the First taken.

 

Meanwhile Egwene is in the basements--near where the BA Hunters, all influential sitters, are organising their goals. Attack begins, Egwene takes charge--so forth.

 

My actual guess is that Elaida will be drunk, Tarna will see what is happening and Elaida will, in her paranoia, attack her driving her away. She will go down through the tower trying to warn people, starting with the Red (which is not just her own Ajah, but which probably outnumbers the other Ajahs by a conciderable amount and thus makes a reasonable first choice).

 

As they get driven downward they encounter Egwene who takes charge and brings in the Rebels--they probably end up losing the tower, but holding the city.

[rhadamanthus]

I think the seanchan attack on TV will force the Aes Sedai to unite, taking Elaida down*.

 

As the attack rolls on, the truce will be made and Tuon will stop it, in effect giving Egwene her "lifeline".  Egwene will be royally ticked that Rand "saved her" and made a truce with that depraved seanchan culture.

 

*I can't wait for this.  I am beyond annoyed with Elaida.  I hope the beatdown is exquisitely detailed.

 

Indeed, if one pauses to think then the likely result of Egwene serving Elaida is Egwene ending in the cells and all those present being impressed with her.

 

Then consider that Elaida has taken rooms at the very top of the Tower. Specifically the Seachan plan to land on the top of the Tower--she will be amongst the First taken.

 

Meanwhile Egwene is in the basements--near where the BA Hunters, all influential sitters, are organising their goals. Attack begins, Egwene takes charge--so forth.

 

My actual guess is that Elaida will be drunk, Tarna will see what is happening and Elaida will, in her paranoia, attack her driving her away. She will go down through the tower trying to warn people, starting with the Red (which is not just her own Ajah, but which probably outnumbers the other Ajahs by a conciderable amount and thus makes a reasonable first choice).

 

As they get driven downward they encounter Egwene who takes charge and brings in the Rebels--they probably end up losing the tower, but holding the city.

 

Reasonable.  But I am not sure how that would jive with Elaida's foretelling.  ???

[Luckers]

That Aes Sedai would be united and stronger than before? The simple act of unification would achieve that--the increased knowledge of the weaves plus the surplas of novices provides for it. By simply rejoining they would be stronger than the Tower was prior to the split.

 

What other aspect of her foretelling relates to this issue? That the Black Tower would be rent in blood and fire probably refers to the upcoming confrontation between Logain and Taim. That sisters would walk its grounds has already occured. That the Dragon would know the Amyrlin's anger probably refers to the truce with the Seanchan....

 

What else is there?

[rhadamanthus]

That Aes Sedai would be united and stronger than before? The simple act of unification would achieve that--the increased knowledge of the weaves plus the surplas of novices provides for it. By simply rejoining they would be stronger than the Tower was prior to the split.

 

What other aspect of her foretelling relates to this issue? That the Black Tower would be rent in blood and fire probably refers to the upcoming confrontation between Logain and Taim. That sisters would walk its grounds has already occured. That the Dragon would know the Amyrlin's anger probably refers to the truce with the Seanchan....

 

What else is there?

 

The "remnants cast out and scorned".  Kind of hard to cast out the remnants when they've been collared off.  I suppose it is still possible after the battle stops, but it would be decidedly weird for the remnants to unite with Egwene only to be "cast out".  Meh.

 

The seanchan are screwed though, and I'm happy about it.

 

On a different note...

 

I would dislike it if Elaida was turned to damane:

 

1)  The whole idea of damane is repulsive.

2)  It takes "justice" away from the Aes Sedai.  I would really like to see Elaida faced with the reality that she is no longer Aes Sedai because the Aes Sedai kicked her out.

[Luckers]

The "remnants cast out and scorned".  Kind of hard to cast out the remnants when they've been collared off.  I suppose it is still possible after the battle stops, but it would be decidedly weird for the remnants to unite with Egwene only to be "cast out".  Meh.

 

Who is to say that only those who will support Egwene will escape being collared? In Egwene's chapter in KoD it shows the diversity of opinion amongst Tower sisters--some already come damn close to supporting Egwene, some do not. If those that do not escape being collered, and protest just as strongly against Egwene, what else is left in the new Egwene regime but to cast them out?

 

I would dislike it if Elaida was turned to damane:

 

1)  The whole idea of damane is repulsive.

2)  It takes "justice" away from the Aes Sedai.  I would really like to see Elaida faced with the reality that she is no longer Aes Sedai because the Aes Sedai kicked her out.

 

I think if done from Elaida's perspective it could be very satisfying. Elaida is completely blinded by the strength of her opinions, even captured by Rebels she'd be certain in her self right up to her death--but captured by those who care absolutely nothing for her, hold her in no more importance than any marath'damane, who treat her like an animal--those who she herself dismissed as insignificant...

 

It is as Fain said, Elaida compared to Siuan is much harder to bend, but much easier to break.

[rhadamanthus]

Who is to say that only those who will support Egwene will escape being collared? In Egwene's chapter in KoD it shows the diversity of opinion amongst Tower sisters--some already come damn close to supporting Egwene, some do not. If those that do not escape being collered, and protest just as strongly against Egwene, what else is left in the new Egwene regime but to cast them out?

 

I was not making a statement per say, I'm just mystified as to how all that will shake out. 

 

I think if done from Elaida's perspective it could be very satisfying. Elaida is completely blinded by the strength of her opinions, even captured by Rebels she'd be certain in her self right up to her death--but captured by those who care absolutely nothing for her, hold her in no more importance than any marath'damane, who treat her like an animal--those who she herself dismissed as insignificant...

 

It is as Fain said, Elaida compared to Siuan is much harder to bend, but much easier to break.

 

 

That's my problem with it.  Yes, it would be satisfying.  But being happy about someone being turned into little more than an animal makes me grimace.  Also, I think it would be plenty satisfying watching a stilled Elaida fade off into oblivian a la Liandrin (yes I know she was not stilled and that she is back in the action a bit).

 

Hrmmmm.  Just thought - how will this truce jive with Alivia?  I was looking forward to watching her face some damane and sul dam.

 

[Kaznen]

 

I think if done from Elaida's perspective it could be very satisfying. Elaida is completely blinded by the strength of her opinions, even captured by Rebels she'd be certain in her self right up to her death--but captured by those who care absolutely nothing for her, hold her in no more importance than any marath'damane, who treat her like an animal--those who she herself dismissed as insignificant...

 

It is as Fain said, Elaida compared to Siuan is much harder to bend, but much easier to break.

 

 

That's my problem with it.  Yes, it would be satisfying.  But being happy about someone being turned into little more than an animal makes me grimace.  Also, I think it would be plenty satisfying watching a stilled Elaida fade off into oblivian a la Liandrin (yes I know she was not stilled and that she is back in the action a bit).

 

Hrmmmm.  Just thought - how will this truce jive with Alivia?  I was looking forward to watching her face some damane and sul dam.

 

Plus, if Elaida is collared, the Seanchan now have all the weaves she has been keeping secret.  Like Travelling.  The Seanchan would regain some of the footing they don't know they've lost with that.  But for her to go off into oblivion like Liandrin and Galiana would be cool.

 

And I think Alivia will do whatever the Lord Dragon says.  She has already supported his plans for a truce.  The most she has felt on the whole thing has been she hasn't kick the habit of obeying Sul'dam as much as she thought, so she is ashamed.

[Samudor]

I have a question...are we sure Rand kneeling before the Crystal Throne is not a true prophecy? I don't remember reading anywhere where that was planted or anything like that.

 

I agree with you guys though, Egwene will be forced to take that final step as a person and stand with the Seanchan to face Tarmon Gaidon. That will be interesting to see how/if she can bring herself to make that decision. And she will be furious with Rand I think even after/if she allies with Tuon. She might well stay furious with him through the course of the story.

[Majsju]

Well, RJ saying that he had not planned showing any action in Seanchan makes it kinda hard for Rand to do any kneeling there.

 

And if we look at the books, the version the Seanchan uses is different from both the common one we usually see refered to in randland, as well as the one that existed in Seanchan before Luthair Paendrags invasion. The one difference we have actually seen is Rands relation to the throne, Randlands version says he will bind the daughter of the Nine Moons to him, the Seanchan that he will kneel before/serve the Crystal Throne. Since these clearly contradicts eachother, one must be false.

[Luckers]

I have a question...are we sure Rand kneeling before the Crystal Throne is not a true prophecy? I don't remember reading anywhere where that was planted or anything like that.

 

Yes, we are certain. As Maj stated RJ said the books would never return to Seanchan--as such Rand cannot physically kneel to the Crystal Throne. The only other way that may potentially work is if Rand were to kneel metaphorically by submitting to the representative of the Throne--Tuon--which we know is impossible by genuine prophecy that states Rand will bind the Nine Moons to serve him.

 

So yes, we are certain that its a false prophecy.

[Kaznen]

And if AS were behind the "corrupted" proficies they would have reworded(rewriteen) the parts that mention the AS being subservant to Rand.  I don't think Egwene knows those parts are there.

[ArolasFlinn]

I have a question...are we sure Rand kneeling before the Crystal Throne is not a true prophecy? I don't remember reading anywhere where that was planted or anything like that.

 

Yes, we are certain. As Maj stated RJ said the books would never return to Seanchan--as such Rand cannot physically kneel to the Crystal Throne. The only other way that may potentially work is if Rand were to kneel metaphorically by submitting to the representative of the Throne--Tuon--which we know is impossible by genuine prophecy that states Rand will bind the Nine Moons to serve him.

 

So yes, we are certain that its a false prophecy.

 

That doesn't exactly show any proof, though. You are still just assuming that the "Crystal Throne" line in Seanchan's version of Prophecy is false, and the "bind the nine moons" line in Randland prophecy is true. If a line could have been changed in one, its just as easy that it could be changed in the other.

 

Not saying that you are wrong, though. I agree that the Seanchan version must be off, I just can't remember/wanna know if it is stated in the books that one is a lie and the other isn't.

[DemandredFO]

One of the remanants cast out is probably the Black Ajah, this is from an educated guess and Egwene's novice test.  I mean most of the BA has to survive the attack because they have alot of mischief yet to cause.