Moiraine missing the obvious?

[Jambo]

From NS we know that Moiraine heard the Fortelling about Rand, and she has a very in-depth knowledge of the Prophacies, so how come when she got to the Two Rivers she wasn't able to pick out Rand as the Dragon Reborn? I mean if she was able to narrow it down to him, Mat, and Perrin just based on their birth dates, should she not have been able to narrow things down further? If people were willing to talk about the boys' birthdays you would think it wouldn't be that much extra effort on Moiraine's part to ask if perchance one of them were born outside of the Two Rivers. It wouldn't take a genius to figure out that 'Gee Tam al'Thor was in the army fighting the aiel, and when he finally came home he had a son with him, and when the son was grown up he looked just like a flaming aiel!'

 

So you've got a boy born within the proper timeframe, born outside of the Two Rivers, and he looks like an Aiel, how much more obvious could it have been? Part of the Prophacies are fullfilled right there. I don't know if there were some other factors at work that prevented Moiraine from seeing the obvious, but to me it seems like she came close to dropping the ball.

[Roxinos]

I'm quite sure she knew that Rand was the Dragon Reborn once she arrived in the town and had it narrowed to the three boys. I'm also fairly certain that she recognized Mat and Perrin's importance in events to come rather than just assuming Rand would be the only key.

[Sabio]

Well just because Rand looked different didn't announce him as the dragon reborn or else Fain would of most like identified him too.  Plus it is something you need to becareful of since what happens if she rushed into a decision and picked the wrong one?  Also she just knew he had been born, far as I know the Aes Sedai who announced didn't say he was born from an Aiel.  They might of suspected since probably not alot of women wandering on the slopes of dragon mount, but if they had known it was Aiel how did they know wasn't carried back to the waste? Don't think she knew anything was really special about all 3 of them till Min viewed them at the inn.  Ishy knew almost as much as she did and he didn't even know which one it was.

 

How many people in the two rivers had seen an Aiel before the ones arrived with Perin?  Doesn't seem like many took part in the fight, if any.  How many knew what Tam had been up to outside the two rivers?  How many knew Tam and his wife didn't concieve the child on their own?  Impression I got was they came back to the Two Rivers with the child since he was fighting for Illian during the war.  She asked Ny questions and as you saw Ny held info back how many others would of done the same thing to an outsider coming in asking questions?  Plus she had to becareful who she asked and how she asked it.  DO has eyes everywhere and if you are too open about it he would find out.  Also she had another reason for not be too open about it, every other sister sent on the search to find the Dragon reborn had been murdered.

 

[lordofsoup]

she had to know, but i doubt that she would have given up the oppurtunity to have 2 more taveren in her grasp

[Fryn]

At that point she knew very little about Aeil. She did not know that the key was she was looking for an Aeil Maiden baby. She had spent ages running around after every child born at or near Dragonmount. If she had known the importance she would not of wasted her time with searching out those that she did for almsot 20 years. In hindsight, knowing about Maidens and Aeil customs makes it obvious, but it wasn't until after TDR that that information was easily availible. Going by simple visible observation of how they looked wouldn't of been wise with teh knowledge she had at this time of the story.

 

She also did not think the other two were important. She started suspecting when Min had her viewing, but for the most part in the later books she finally realizes that they would play a much larger role than she originally thought (even after Min's viewings). She seemed too worried about Rand alone and took the other two for granted; where in the scheme of things all three were just as important (She didn't care about Perrin or Mat leaving Rand).

 

In any case you could argue that the 3 boys pushed the pattern to all be taken. I doubt that the pattern would of allowed one to be taken away at that point without the others. Morraine had a strong suspicion that Rand was the only baby not born in the TR of course, but Ishy did not at that point and all three were targets. The pattern needed all three alive. If one would of been taken away the other two would of died, and it would of been a huge mess.

[Roxinos]

Going by simple visible observation of how they looked wouldn't of been wise with teh knowledge she had at this time of the story.

 

Why not? Moiraine searched a long time for Rand. She knew that the person she was looking for had been born on or around Dragonmount. Rand was obviously not born in the Two Rivers, simply by the looks of the people who lived in the Two Rivers. No one looks like Rand. He was taller than everyone, with odd eyes and odd hair. Without even knowing that Rand was Aiel, just simple observation tells you that he wasn't born in the Two Rivers.

 

She also did not think the other two were important.

 

Oh really?

 

In any case you could argue that the 3 boys pushed the pattern to all be taken. I doubt that the pattern would of allowed one to be taken away at that point without the others.

 

Agreed.

 

... but Ishy did not at that point and all three were targets.

 

So? Ishy didn't know that Rand was the Dragon Reborn specifically, but that doesn't mean that Moiraine wasn't almost certain.

 

 

[Fryn]

Going by simple visible observation of how they looked wouldn't of been wise with teh knowledge she had at this time of the story.

 

Why not? Moiraine searched a long time for Rand. She knew that the person she was looking for had been born on or around Dragonmount. Rand was obviously not born in the Two Rivers, simply by the looks of the people who lived in the Two Rivers. No one looks like Rand. He was taller than everyone, with odd eyes and odd hair. Without even knowing that Rand was Aiel, just simple observation tells you that he wasn't born in the Two Rivers.

 

She could assume Tam came from outside the TR. She could of also assumed both of the other boys were born in the TR. You do know what they say about assuming though =). Just because the other two look like they fit in, doesn't mean they have to have been born in the town.

 

She also did not think the other two were important.

 

Oh really?

 

Morraine doesn't have the ability to see tarvaren. She was looking for the dragon; she wasn't looking for a dragon +2. At this point in the story she had 0 reason to suspect more than one of the boys was important. Even when Min had her viewing morraine had no reason to suspect Perrin/Mat had a role that was more important that Egewene or Nyv as they were all linked together with Min's visions. It is only later that she even finds out that all three are tarvaren. Even after finding out they were all tarvaren she was more worried about Rand over the other two. In the early books the only Aes Sedai that makes a big deal about the other two was Verin.

 

... but Ishy did not at that point and all three were targets.

 

So? Ishy didn't know that Rand was the Dragon Reborn specifically, but that doesn't mean that Moiraine wasn't almost certain.

 

 

The original post makes it sound like Morraine was silly for taking more than just Rand out of the village. I was just pointing out that there were more reasons for taking the other two boys out rather than just needing to know which was the dragon. All three were targets, and Morraine wasn't positive which was the dragon at that point. She had strong suspision, but wasn't sure. One of Morraines first clues, when she explained it, was Bella's stamina on the run out. Which obviously was after Morraine had decided to take all three out.

[Guest The Thin Inn Keeper]

I mean if she was able to narrow it down to him, Mat, and Perrin just based on their birth dates, should she not have been able to narrow things down further?

Telling someone when someone's born is totally different from telling them about the circumstances of their birth. That's pretty private. Only Nyn. was certain, that's because she was the Wisdom.

It wouldn't take a genius to figure out that 'Gee Tam al'Thor was in the army fighting the aiel, and when he finally came home he had a son with him, and when the son was grown up he looked just like a flaming aiel!'

Nobody else in the village seemed to really know what Tam was doing, certainly not in any great detail. Sure, he fought in the war (which was pretty large by all accounts), but did they know where he fought? A lot of people fought in the Aiel War, though not from the Two Rivers.

 

And besides, neither Rand, nor Mat or Perrin, realise he looks like an Aiel. Remember all the awkward moments with Maesma? Nobody could figure it out until it was explained to them. Given that the boys had travelled further than most people in the TR, why on earth would they know that Rand looked like an Aiel? Answer... they wouldn't.

So you've got a boy born within the proper timeframe

Yep.

born outside of the Two Rivers,

When does Nyn pass this info on? I was under the impression it was after they had left.

and he looks like an Aiel, how much more obvious could it have been?

Well, given that nobody had made the connection between Maidens of the Spear and the Dragon. Given that Nyn might not have spilt the beans... Hmmm... not all that obvious.

 

So, it'd be far from obvious. The village is suddenly attacked by Trollocs, and they are clearly aimed at the boys. i.e. the Shadow is interested but uncertain as to who's who.

 

Rather than waste time, she scoops up all 3 boys and makes a run for it. She had no certain answers, but knew the Shadow was on the trail.

 

She made the right choice and was, in my opinion, totally on the ball given the information she had.

[RAND AL THOR]

Also, the DO expressed interest in all 3 so it would have been wise to carry all 3 off to Tar Valon.

[Luckers]

Just pointing out, but Moiraine never knew for a fact that Rand was born outside the Two Rivers. Nynaeve concealed it from her. She had to suspect one of the boys, but by what she'd been told all had been born in the Two Rivers.

 

As for Rand's looks, Kari was a Caemlyner, some of whom have very aiel colouring. Which Moiraine WAS told.

 

As a final note, she herself states in tGH that she only just learnt Tam's history recently, and that it would have been helpful had she known it earlier.

 

If your looking for Moiraine's stupidity, try the People of the Dragon. The only race to have recently come to the Stone of Tear for the first time are the Aiel, which, coincidently happen to be Rand's people by blood--not to mention Someshta naming Rand a child of the Dragon based on his looks.

 

Somehow, i think she should have figured it out, even without knowing the Aiel's historical name.

[RAND AL THOR]

 

If your looking for Moiraine's stupidity, try the People of the Dragon. The only race to have recently come to the Stone of Tear for the first time are the Aiel, which, coincidently happen to be Rand's people by blood--not to mention Someshta naming Rand a child of the Dragon based on his looks.

 

Somehow, i think she should have figured it out, even without knowing the Aiel's historical name.

 

Er, could you clarify that? Moiraine knows that Rand is the DR by the end of Book 1. I believe that the first Aiel are seen in Book 2 or 3?

[Luckers]

At the end of the Dragon Reborn Mat asks Moiraine who the People of the Dragon are, and she says she doesn't know, that maybe they all are, and Rhuarc reveals the secret name of the Aiel.

 

But Moiraine should have guessed this long since. It's not hard.

[Sabio]

So? Ishy didn't know that Rand was the Dragon Reborn specifically, but that doesn't mean that Moiraine wasn't almost certain.

 

Ishy had the same information as Moiraine.  Like Moiraine he could narrow it down to the three of them.  Besides just because Mat and Perin looked as if they were from the Two Rivers whats to say their parents didn't birth them outside the Two Rivers?  Had it been known the child would of been from the Aiel they probably would of headed to the Waste to search.

[Hybrid]

Ishy had the same information as Moiraine. 

 

I would not say Ishamael had the same information as Moiraine.  The Shadow's methods are considerably different from the Light's.  Moiraine was searching for children born at a specific birthdate on Dragonmount.  The Black Ajah never knew about that date.  Only Siuan and Moiraine did (and Tamra, but she revealed nothing).

[Spirit1025]

Moiraine would not have been able to tell the location of the boys' birth by their appearance. Rand looked like an outsider, sure. But the story of Kari being from outside would have accounted perfectly for it. As already mentioned by another poster, Caemlyners often have red or blond hair and blue eyes. Look at Elayne and Morgase. It would have been assumed he inherited his coloring from his mother. He could have been conceived by an outsider, then born in the Two Rivers. Likewise, Mat and Perrin could have been conceived by two parents from the Two Rivers but born on the slopes of Dragonmount. Or anywhere else.

[RAND AL THOR]

At the end of the Dragon Reborn Mat asks Moiraine who the People of the Dragon are, and she says she doesn't know, that maybe they all are, and Rhuarc reveals the secret name of the Aiel.

 

But Moiraine should have guessed this long since. It's not hard.

 

Okay got it. But she did guess approximately half a second before Rhuarc said the words so she must get some credit!!

[Dakeyras]

Rhuarc wouldn't say the name. She filled in the blanks more than guessed and this was after Rhuarc showed her the clan chief mark of the dragon which is the same as the one on the banner she gave Rand. I agree with Luckers.

 

It even states she sounds as close to startlement as she ever had.

[Jambo]

It wouldn't take a genius to figure out that 'Gee Tam al'Thor was in the army fighting the aiel, and when he finally came home he had a son with him, and when the son was grown up he looked just like a flaming aiel!'

Nobody else in the village seemed to really know what Tam was doing, certainly not in any great detail. Sure, he fought in the war (which was pretty large by all accounts), but did they know where he fought? A lot of people fought in the Aiel War, though not from the Two Rivers.

 

And besides, neither Rand, nor Mat or Perrin, realise he looks like an Aiel. Remember all the awkward moments with Maesma? Nobody could figure it out until it was explained to them. Given that the boys had travelled further than most people in the TR, why on earth would they know that Rand looked like an Aiel? Answer... they wouldn't.

 

I didn't mean that the other villagers would know he was Aiel, I meant that Moiraine should have known, and Lan would have known for sure seeing as he fought them before being bonded by Moiraine. And even if nobody else knew exactly where he was from, they all knew he wasn't born inside the TR because Tam came home with his wife and a baby Rand, and to add to that he looks nothing at all like them, something that was constantly remarked upon.

 

It also was common knowledge that Tam was having adventures outside of the TR during his youth, the time of which coincided with the prophacy and the Aiel war. That knowledge should have let Moiraine know that he was the soldier who found the prophacy baby on the mountain. I mean if she had narrowed it down to those three boys, it really should not have been difficult to know which was the One. The only things I can think of that would have made things more difficult for her, is if Mat and or Perrin's parents were outside the TR during that time frame or it was the Ta'verren(sp?)-ness at work.

[Hybrid]

I didn't mean that the other villagers would know he was Aiel, I meant that Moiraine should have known, and Lan would have known for sure seeing as he fought them before being bonded by Moiraine. And even if nobody else knew exactly where he was from, they all knew he wasn't born inside the TR because Tam came home with his wife and a baby Rand, and to add to that he looks nothing at all like them, something that was constantly remarked upon.

Looking like an Aiel does not make one an Aiel.  As stated before, Aiel have some similarities in appearance with Caemlyners.  Also, small villagers are understandably mistrusting of strangers, especially strangers who inquire into the personal history of the village's inhabitants.  Nynaeve never revealed this information, and I doubt the others did.  In addition, the Dark One was interested in all three, so rather than taking the best bet, Moiraine took all three.  In her own words, what the Dark One wants, she opposes.

 

I would add that Moiraine suspected Rand from the start.  There was his resistance to her wishes, Bela, etc.  However, she was not sure until Rand began channeling and fulfilling the other prophecies.

[Dakeyras]

I didn't mean that the other villagers would know he was Aiel, I meant that Moiraine should have known

 

It's already been stated but let's do so again. The prophecy never says the Dragon Reborn will be Aiel. It says "Born of a maiden." The Aiel hadn't been seen since the Aiel war and even then little was known of them.

 

Rand hasn't just been told he looks like an Aiel either. Remember the Caemlyn inn Mat and Rand stayed at? The cook thinks Rand looks like an Andoran prince. If a person from Caemlyn thinks you look like an Andoran prince, there has to be some similarity surely. Not to mention Dyelin. The Two Rivers technically is part of Andor..

 

I also agree it's unlikely the people from the Two Rivers would have told Moiraine much about Rands birth.

[Guest The Thin Inn Keeper]

It also was common knowledge that Tam was having adventures outside of the TR during his youth, the time of which coincided with the prophacy and the Aiel war.

They knew that he was outside of the Two Rivers doing something. That doesn't translate to him being at Dragonmount at the time of Rand's birth.

That knowledge should have let Moiraine know that he was the soldier who found the prophacy baby on the mountain.

Only, there was no soldier in the prophecy. The prophecy was essentially that the Dragon would be born on Dragonmount to a maiden. No mention of an Aiel, no mention of a soldier.

I mean if she had narrowed it down to those three boys, it really should not have been difficult to know which was the One. The only things I can think of that would have made things more difficult for her, is if Mat and or Perrin's parents were outside the TR during that time frame or it was the Ta'verren(sp?)-ness at work.

Maybe.

 

Only she didn't have much time what with the Trolloc attack, which was clearly aimed at all 3 boys. So, she grabs all three  

and makes a run for it.

[Sabio]

It's already been stated but let's do so again. The prophecy never says the Dragon Reborn will be Aiel. It says "Born of a maiden." The Aiel hadn't been seen since the Aiel war and even then little was known of them.

 

Can't remember, Is this Aiel prophecy or the prophecy everyone knows?  The prophecy says born on the slopes of dragonmount but does the prophecy the Aes Sedai know mention a maiden.  Hard to keep track of who's prophecy is who's.

[Dakeyras]

The Karaethon cycle prophecy (Dragon Reborn) says;

 

On the slopes of Dragonmount shall he be born,

born of a maiden wed to no man.

He will be of the ancient blood, and raised by the old blood.

 

The car'a'carn, Aiel, prophecy does say that he'll be born of a maiden also.

 

 

[Ashaman Kovan]

I'm quite sure she knew that Rand was the Dragon Reborn once she arrived in the town and had it narrowed to the three boys. I'm also fairly certain that she recognized Mat and Perrin's importance in events to come rather than just assuming Rand would be the only key.

 

Actually in the Shadow rising. After rand drives callandor back into the heart of stone and after she's realized perrin left she thinks to herself that she should have had him watched better and scolds herself for NOT realizing from the beginning that mat and perrin were only slightly less important than rand.

[Jambo]

That knowledge should have let Moiraine know that he was the soldier who found the prophacy baby on the mountain.

 

Only, there was no soldier in the prophecy. The prophecy was essentially that the Dragon would be born on Dragonmount to a maiden. No mention of an Aiel, no mention of a soldier.

 

You're right there was no soldier mentioned in the prophacies, BUT Moiraine later explained to Rand that stories of a soldier who found a baby on the mountain led her to the TR. That soldier obviously being Tam. I just thought of this, but just knowing that Tam had been 'out and about' when the other boy's father's hadn't should have been enough to alert Moiraine to the One.