Fast Mafia- Game over

[MsDanya]

I got

 

Thorum- Innocent

 

And yeah, its pretty straight forward like Wes explained. We cant really trust any of the viewings we got, because we dont know what kind of cop we are. I agree with Wes to get a feel out of the posts, no matter how difficult that is.

 

oh and [glow=red,2,300]Unvotes Wes [/glow]  :P

[JenLenaMom]

So what we have to hope is that Moggy wasn't our normal cop.  NOw that everyone's revealed should we start voting who we think is mafia?  Would it be helpful to vote for one of the people who turned up guily then we can know whether to trust that person's results?

[Myndrunner]

Danya got a guilty read from Thor.  JLM got a guilty read from Me.  Should we choose one or the other?

[DPR]

 

The deadline is tomorrow night, or the morning after. But, tomorrow is a US holiday, and posting will probably be sparse from those at BBQ's, etc.

 

So, I'll vote now.[glow=red,2,300] No Lynch[/glow]

[Myndrunner]

I'm with ya there...[glow=red,2,300]No Lynch[/glow]

[JenLenaMom]

I can stand that I guess. I will be loa till Monday anyway as I suspect a lot of people will. 

Although is it really a "no lynch" since we're not actually lynching anyone anyway?

All that happens is we find out if one person is guilty or innocent right?  I think the dead line is tonight must go check.

 

 

 

[JenLenaMom]

Okay I was wrong.  Too many games and deadlines at once. *sigh*  side effect of being addicted to mafia I guess.

 

I'm still not sure about a no lynch though.  It doesn't get us any info to  decifer who is which cop.  and it gives the mafia another NK. 

I suspect that's why he's suggesting it.

[glow=red,2,300]Wes[/glow]

[DPR]

 

Heh. Actually, I'm currently a top pick to be nightkilled. I have brought up that paying too much attention to the viewing results is a distraction and was the first to vote no lynch. Not that any player could not have done those things, but if I was the mafia, I would be more than happy to try and start some wild speculation on the viewing results, counting on the fact that at least one person would look guilty somehow. Then, I would push a lynch on them, take the nightkill and have only one more day to deal with.

 

As it stands, there are five players on the board. If we no lynch and go to night, we wake up with four. Whoever is killed will give us info, along with a second round of viewing results. Then another no lynch will lead to three waking up the next day, and that is endgame. You'll have a one in three chance of picking the mafia, and who dies will give you information along with a third night of viewing results. Statistically, this is the best way to promote an innocent win, and the mafia likes this the least because stretching the game out leaves more room for them to get noticed.

 

[Alys Kinch]

2 no lynches

one lynch wes.

[Myndrunner]

I dunno JLM, I think a No Lynch might be the best bet here.  I mean, right now we have a 1/5 chance of lynching a mafia; but that means we have a 4/5 chance of lynching an innocent.

 

Now, with a no lynch, sure, we lose one player tonight, but tomorrow, we have a 1/4 chance of getting them AND we should have more information from our findings.  I think No Lynch is the way to go.

[JenLenaMom]

But by voting for someone today they don't die, we just find out whether they are mafia or cop, just not what kind  (I think I'm right about that Mod is that how it works?)

 

So by voting for someone today we eliminate that person as a suspect.  We know they are not mafia.  We won't be able to know what their role is but tomorrow we are down to 4, one mafia, one confirmed innocent.  A 1 in 3 chance of getting mafia. 

[Myndrunner]

Oh, is that true? No one dies, they just get found out?? If that's the case, then I need to reconsider.

 

[glow=red,2,300]UNVOTE[/glow]

[glow=red,2,300]

DPR[/glow]

[Alys Kinch]

i asked if that's how you all wanted to play it, no one responded. you will die on a lynch because no one responded to the hybrid game query.

[JenLenaMom]

ARGH!

 

[glow=red,2,300]Unvote, No lynch[/glow]

[DPR]

I didn't even see the hybrid query! But, now that it is settled, can someone take this noose off of my neck. Sheesh, you try to help....

[Thorum]

Maths:

 

if we lynch someone each day, purely randomness gives us 1/5 for a first-day maffia lynch + 1/3 for a second-day maffia lynch if we didn't have one the first day. That's 1/5 + 4/5 * 1/3 = 47 %

 

Waiting till there's only 3 of us gives us, purely by randomness, 33 % chance to get the maffia. Which is less, if I remember correctly.

 

Of course, it will be less random, more "sure" after 2 nights. But I do not believe the surtenty can be elevated high enough.

 

One thing which ís sure, is that if we go for a no-lynch today, we should also go for one tomorrow.

 

Btw: I'm departing on an internet-free vacation Wednesday (for the rest of July). I hope the no-posting-till-Monday-evening is just a joke. A bad one.

[Thorum]

A bit more maths (on excell, a simple spreadsheet): counting the number of possible alignment combinations possible with each person as a mafia:

 

- Mynd = mafia --> 21 (me or moggy paranoid, only me not naive; multiplied by 3 because the normal can be choosen at random between the others)

 

- JLM = mafia --> 24 (diff between Mynd & JLM is that Mynd can be paranoid, but not naive)

 

- Wes = Danya = JLM

 

- Thorum = Mynd

 

So, I suggest choosing between wes, danya, and JLM. Seeing Wes is the only name mentioned yet, I'll say [glow=red,2,300]Wes[/glow] for now.

 

If you wanna redo the counting: these are the possibilities I've counted:

[DPR]

 

I am so confused. He's blinding me with science. :D

[Myndrunner]

You just gotta step back and look at the big picture here...it will all make sense.

 

Oh, and [glow=red,2,300]UNVOTE[/glow]

[JenLenaMom]

I hate Statistics! I can't even say that stupid word i'm not even sure I spelled it right!

 

*shudders*

 

I think no lynch tonight is the best way to go.  We can at least compare results tonight with last nights and begin to get a vague idea of what's giong on, I hope.

 

 

[Thorum]

In first instance, the first post is important: for purely random reasons, it makes more sense to get 2 lynches, which gives us more chance to get the mafia than only 1 lynch with less people (and first 2 no-lynch days).

 

Of course, it is probably possible to figure out the mafia by reasoning before day 3, but a math professor could need a couple of days to calculate it by computer.

 

As of now: Wes, Danya, and JLM have the highest probability for being mafia at 21% chance each (24/114), and Danya and me at 18.5% each (21/114).

[MsDanya]

I have both 18 and 21? impressive...

[DPR]

 

That's because you are the very essence of special! :D :D

[MsDanya]

*preens*  ;D

[Myndrunner]

Do we have a % chance in getting on with this?  All this math is making me think about lynching Thor!