Whole lotta Black Ajah

[aevogt]

There are 26 known members of the Black Ajah and their current status

 

Alviarin Freidhen - Hidden (White Ajah) Hidden Removed from post as Keeper, replaced by Tarna Fier.  Marked as “Property of the Great Lord of the Dark” by Shaidar Haran

Katerine Alruddin - (Red Ajah)- hidden -  At large in the White Tower after a mysterious absence following Dumai’s wells

Fera - (White Ajah) Hidden - Held by Aiel in Cairhien.  Oath sworn to Rand al'Thor

Elza Penfell - (Green Ajah) Hidden - Oath bound to Rand al’Thor

 

Atuan Larisett - (Yellow Ajah) Exposed Broken with the Chair of Remorse and bound to obey The Five. 

Karale Sanghir – (Gray Ajah) Exposed Broken with the Chair of Remorse and bound to obey The Five. 

Marris Thornhill – (Brown Ajah) Exposed Broken with the Chair of Remorse and bound to obey The Five. 

Talene Minly - (Green Ajah) Exposed Broken on the Chair of Remorse and Bound to obey the Five.  Currently in hiding from the rest of the Black Ajah.

 

*Berylla Naron - (Blue Ajah) Exposed - Current whereabouts and status unknown

*Jeaine Caide - (Green Ajah) Exposed - Current whereabouts and status unknown

Delana Mosalaine - (Gray Ajah) Exposed - Current whereabouts and status unknown. Last seen fleeing the Rebel army encampment with her Chosen sponsor Halima/Arangar. 

Galina Casban - (Red Ajah) Exposed - Captured by Shaido Aiel, Boiund to obey the Wise One Threava and unlikely to escape without outside intervention.

*Liandrin - (Red Ajah) Exposed - Likely collared in Ebou Dar following the Fall of the High Lady Suroth.  Very likely still shielded.

 

*Falion Bhoda - (White Ajah) Exposed - Captured and held in Camelyn

*Chesmal Emry - (Yellow Ajah) Exposed - Captured and held in Camelyn

*Eldrith Jhondar - (Brown Ajah) Exposed - Captured and held in Camelyn

*Marillin Gemalphin - (Brown Ajah) Exposed - Captured and held in Camelyn

*Rianna Andomeran - (White Ajah) Exposed - Captured and held in Camelyn

*Temaile Kinderode - (Gray Ajah) Exposed - Captured and held in Camelyn

 

 

*Ispan Shefar - (Blue Ajah,) Exposed - Killed by Careane Fransi TPoD,Ch28

Careane Fransi – (Green Ajah,)Exposed - Killed by Vandene Namelle KoD,Ch31

Jarna Malari - (Gray Ajah,) Hidden - Killed by Ishmael ACoS,Prologue

*Joiya Byir - (Gray Ajah,) Exposed - Killed by Slayer TSR,Ch12

*Amico Nagoyin - (Yellow Ajah,) Exposed - Killed by Slayer TSR,Ch12

*Asne Zeramene - (Green Ajah,) Exposed - Killed by Athan Mier Windfinder Chanelle din Seran White Shark (which is a really, really bad ass name when you think about it)  KoD,Ch33 

Merean Redhill - (Blue Ajah,) Hidden - Killed by Moraine NS,Ch26

 

*The 13 sisters who fled the Tower in TDR

 

Looking at this list, and considering that the BA took, and is continuing to take, some pretty major hits in the last couple books, how much of an influence will they really have once TG arrives.

 

There are a total of 10 that have been exposed and are captive in Aes Sedai hands with a few others more or less out of action, ie. Delana, Liandrin and Galina.

 

Elza and Fera can’t take two steps without running into Cadsuane or a Wise One.  Which one would be worse to be caught by?  The Wise Ones would kill a shadow runner.  Cadsuane would make a Black Sister pray for death.

 

The Five are working their way through the Tower.  Every Black sister they catch, break and re-swear will lead them to at least three more, their heart and the "one other"  Like that old shampoo commercial “and they told two friends, and they told two friends…”  The four they have in custody should lead them to a dozen or so more, which should lead them to another 40, which, may lead to the whole foul bunch of them.

 

Of course, Alviarin suspects at least two of The Five as having to do with Talene’s disappearance, so it will make for an interesting race in AMoL.  Do The Five hunters uncover Alviarin before she finds out what they are up to and her master Shaidar Haran takes the situation in Hand, (ba bum bum), to defend his creatures in the Tower?  That would make a nice little twist, The Five and their warders against Shaidar Haran.  At stake, the future of the Black Ajah!

 

But once Elayne has the opportunity to return her half dozen captives for "reeducation" in the Tower, the Black will surely be sent packing.

 

If we put their numbers at 1 out of every 5 Sisters then it's around 200 in the Black and I just can’t make myself believe it’s higher than that.

 

Or am I missing something?

 

[aussie_ashaman123]

i would say 200 at most, though even that seems way too high for a group numbering only 1000. I would guess the number to be nearer 100

[Aemon raHal]

I can't imagine there being anywhere near 200 normally. Out of 1000 of the general non-channeling public, I highly doubt that 20% are Darkfriends.

 

But we're made aware in TDR that Channelers can be turned against their will with the 13 Myrdraal trick.

 

Also, the brigands who capture Elayne, Egwene and Nynaeve in TDR know that Aes Sedai can be sold on to DF's (I got the impression they were talking about Myrdraal though)

 

So I think that the Shadow is actively kidnapping and forcing Aes Sedai (and any other channelers they happen upon) to the dark.

 

Otherwise the ratio of Light Vs Shadow channelers is way too many....

 

 

 

[xander]

The "Black Ajah" may not have that many at TG, especially seeing how their numbers have dwindled.  But look at the number of Black sisters that we know of, and I'm sure there are more that we don't know about, and look at the number of sisters the complete and whole tower has.  There are one hella lot of black sisters.

 

Now, I'm sure teh DO didn't concentrate all his recruiting mojo on the White Tower, especially since he mentioned the Senchen (spelling r hard), and how they were manipulated in book one.  How many of them are in his hip pocket?  How many Sea Folk? 

 

Based on the percentage of Black Sisters in the White Tower, I'd say that there will be quite a force of Dark Friend channelers at TG.

[aevogt]

I just don't see where all these channelers are coming from, unless the Tower is more riddled than I suspect.

 

If there are 200 BA, as noted, that's 20%.  If that translates across the rest of the the populations, the shadopw channelers are outnumbered 4 to one. 

 

The number of battles that have been won from the wrong side of 4 to one odds is pretty slim.

 

I have to be missing something.

 

Unless, TG is going to last a good long time and there are a lot of defections from the light, the Shadow is going to get their booty handed to them.

[Luckers]

Well, a plausible line of logic for having more Aes Sedai darkfriends is that you see a stronger desire for power amongst Aes Sedai than non-Aes Sedai. But here is an old summary of mine of channeling forces--keep in mind that i was attempting to be very generous to the Shadow.

 

CHANNELERS

 

Black Tower - Around 1000 now, though that may have climbed. 100 Darkfriends and 900 Light.

 

White Tower - 2200. Including all Aes Sedai, and novices. I'd place around 300 Black Ajah... to be kind. The disposition of the novices is unimportant, since they will be used like batteries in circels. 1900.

 

Wise Ones - Based on the Shaido, 5500. Lets be extremely kind and give a third to the Shadow. 1875 Dark and 3625 light

 

Seanchan - Hard to say. They get every sparker, and the Seanchan have a much much larger population by all accounts. Plus they've taken loads of new damane since ariving (randoms, the shaido, the windfinders, the kin... loads). I'll give them 6,000 and think thats conservative. It might only be 4,000, or may be as high as 8,000. Not many darkfriends amongst the sul'dam, so i wont give any to the Shadow.

 

The Kin - Given likely losses to the Seanchan i'll put them at 1,300. No darkfriends.

 

The Windfinders - Given ship distribution, presense of apprentices and so forth, i'd guess around 3,000. Being kind ill give a third to the shadow. 1,000 dark and 2,000 light.

 

CONCLUSION

 

Channeling Forces of the Light - 15,725

 

Channeling Forces of the Dark - 3,275

 

OTHER CONSIDERATIONS

 

Given the disparate amount of Dark Channelers, and RJ's insistance that the Light is in a bad way, there are some other possible considerations.

 

1. Aiel Male Channelers. Have been going north for a very long time. Possibly been turned to the Shadow. I'd suggest around 1000... remember, 1/4 would have died.

 

2. Taim. I believe that Taim was trained a while back by Ishamael (when Ishy first suspect Rand's birth), and sent out to start training men who can channel for the Shadow. Since this must have been done by Ishy for the Trolloc Wars (since we know men fought in those wars, and someone must have gathered and trained them) i think this is very likely. Moreover, i suspect there might be women out there doing the same thing. The Aes Sedai ignored wilders and those channelers that never bothered to come to the Tower, and the Kin never recruited... they only accepted Tower dropouts which leaves a fairly massive (even with recent recruitments) untapped force. This scenario matches Taims comments of his past--he admits to trying to train people, but claims they went insane... if Taim is a darkfriend, as seems likely, then those men would have had the option of joining the dark.

 

Still, a furtive operation at best... even with a whole bunch of people doing it... My guess would put it at around 2,000... but ill be kind and say 4,000, just because.

 

3. The Sharans. They are a massive untapped force... but there are some problems. They are ruled by the channelers from the background, which means a monolithic organisation with diffused circles of power. They use compulsion all the time in their ruling, which would make it hard to control them in this manner. Additionally from purely plot perspective it would be hard to swallow... the Aiel Instant Army was hard to swallow, and he spent the better part of two books doing that.

 

4. The Land of the Madmen... i believe this is where the shadow has been gathering channelers... the stories about the place strike me as a massive smokescreen... but meh. Alternatively it might be a ripe recruitment area for the Shadow. ill given them 4,000 channelers too... male and female.

 

5. Forcibly turned Randlanders - we see in tDR that Myrdraal are paying people to abduct Aes Sedai (and if Aes Sedai, probably other wilders). Furthermore there have only been 24 men who can channel in the last 20 years--even with one in four dying, and others going mad and killing themselves there should be ALOT more than that. We know the Aes Sedai's dire predictions of culling are not accurate--not to the extent--so where are they? Maybe 1,000 male/female.

 

If these are true, it boosts the number of Dark Channelers to 13,275. A much more even number.

 

[42Bonzo88]

Something to consider also is knowledge. Just taking the 13 that left the Tower with Liandrin, look at all the Ter'angreal that they took. Just because Verin didn't have the knowledge of all those Ter'angreal doesn't mean the BA didn't know or had access to it. Alvarin has been in the WT for all that time as the head of the BA and with Mesanna training her she could have found not only more Ter'angreal but about them to.

 

    Look at the figures all of you have came up with and for sake of argument only give the DO 5%. If they had Ter'angreal, circles, and the knowledge lost to the light, they could still put up a hell of a fight.

 

[Charlz Guybon]

I would suspect that there are about 100 of them.

[balefireruinssteaks]

I think it's interesting that the BA has access to the knowledge of the ter'angreal from the Forsaken.  A lot of the dream ter'angreal were stolen but some of them were not known except that they were studied by a Dreamer in the White Tower.  However, the BA knew that they all enabled access into Tel'aran'rhiod. 

 

Also when Ishamael was killing the former head of the Black Ajah, he knew exactly which ter'angreal to use and how to activate it, though the Tower did not know what it was used for.  I wonder what they did with that ter'angreal.

 

It strikes me that sometimes the Forsaken will share their knowledge of ter'angreal they recognize (unless they, too, have the ability to "read" ter'angreal) with the BA to push their plans forward.

[Jehaine]

Anothwer interesting question that sprang to mind would be why they'd go for dream ter'angreal. Sure, they left the Tower so they'd probably steal whatever they could get their hands on, but why specifically TAR access ter'angreal? The Forsaken could simply visit their dreams, or Travel to their general location as it was, right? So why bother having them specifically steal dreamwalking ter'angreal, when angreal or sa'angreal were not touched?

 

Then i started wondering... Would the 'Circle of Thirteen' to forcibly turn someone work in TAR as well, or would they need to physically be there? If it's the first, the order to steal dream ter'angreal for all would suddenly make frighteningly more sense since they wouldn't have much of a use otherwise.

 

Thoughts?

[aussie_ashaman123]

theres an old saying I heard once, "A knife in the night is worth 1000 swords at dawn. the Shadow may be outnumbered terribly come TG, but the majority of DF channelers are hidden, and can probably cause terrible damage to the Light forces because theyre unexpected. Aran'gar killed 3 Aes Sedai in a camp with over 1000 channelers, and if he wanted to, could probbaly have killed them all. And thats one person