FIDDLES-ON-SEA -------- The Pirates Game

[Alys Kinch]

yeah, that's why i didn't do it myself. people know we talk, so i didn't want to be the nudger. would be suspicious, that.

[the dude]

i pm'ed him. just said the game was started and we're all wondering where he is.

[Zylazlo-]

I always get myself into this position don't I? Well bah, do what you must, I won't say you'll be sorry cause of my lack of any kind of repercussive action but in any case... bah!

[the dude]

i'm still on your side, zyl, little good though it does you...

[Zylazlo-]

My destiny is to be doomed, y'know kinda like Old School Werewolf dude :P

[Talya]

The Modess has already thought of this and a pm was sent this afternoon...(my time). I also looked at his last posts and it doesn't look like he has been on since 11th April. He probably has no idea the game has started. I have also sent a message on msn in case he logs on there.

 

He has until 8pm (GMT) tomorrow to get in here or he will be mod killed unless I can get anyone to take his place...which I would prefer to do. If anybody knows anyone who is interested please get them to pm me.

[Alys Kinch]

thanks, talya.

 

i have a hunch. i think sir is not being totally open with us. i won't say more for now.

[the dude]

My destiny is to be doomed' date=' y'know kinda like Old School Werewolf dude :P[/quote']

 

hahaha, i know exACTLY what you mean. my sympathies. and you know i mean that; i've been there many a time.

 

ok, sorry for being presumptuous there talya. (why the name change by the way, if i may ask?)

 

now, alys, proving my innocence is of course an impossibility short of killing me. i'm in the unfortunate position of having a hunch against a high-profile and very often valuable player.

 

well, if you want open, it's open you'll all get. so my dudey senses (heh heh, i said doodee) tell me to go for sirayn. i know full-well the fallibility of of these so-called hunches. and killing sirayn the first day is sort of a bad idea anyway, in case i'm wrong. now, some considerations for everyone, since my odds for dying tonight went up the second i started making this noise.

 

if i die tonight, it can mean one of two things.

 

1) sirayn is innocent and the pirates are trying to frame her.

 

2) sirayn is a pirate and wants people to think she's being framed.

 

if i don't die tonight, it's because either sirayn is a pirate and doesn't want to draw attention to herself, or she's innocent and the pirates don't think that the frame-up will work, or they're anticipating that i'll be protected tonight. i can't make that guarantee, and the protector may just want to cover their own butt (a logical choice).

 

so, that's about as open as can be, i think. i'll answer any questions other than that that you'd like to ask, sis. 8)

[Kivam]

Here's what I mean about the modkills. I'm not sure how many evil players there are - either 2 or 3 - so I did a quick projection for each scenario.

 

2 Evil Players

 

No modkills.

DAY ONE - 2 evil' date=' 10 innocent

DAY TWO - 2 evil, 8 innocent

DAY THREE - 2 evil, 6 innocent

DAY FOUR - 2 evil, 4 innocent

DAY FIVE - 2 evil, 2 innocent - ENDGAME

DAY SIX - 2 evil, 0 innocent - LOSE

 

One innocent modkill.

DAY ONE - 2 evil, 10 innocent

DAY TWO - 2 evil, 7 innocent

DAY THREE - 2 evil, 5 innocent

DAY FOUR - 2 evil, 3 innocent - ENDGAME

DAY FIVE - 2 evil, 1 innocent - LOSE

 

[u']3 Evil Players[/u]

 

No modkills.

DAY ONE - 3 evil, 9 innocent

DAY TWO - 3 evil, 7 innocent

DAY THREE - 3 evil, 5 innocent

DAY FOUR - 3 evil, 3 innocent - ENDGAME

DAY FIVE - 3 evil, 1 innocent - LOSE

 

One innocent modkill.

DAY ONE - 3 evil, 9 innocent

DAY TWO - 3 evil, 6 innocent

DAY THREE - 3 evil, 4 innocent - ENDGAME

DAY FOUR - 3 evil, 2 innocent - LOSE

 

We lose a day by letting one innocent get modkilled while we lynch another. Just one. The prospect doesn't exactly enthuse me. :?

 

edit: I would invoke the even-odd rule if I remembered how it went. :P

 

There are a couple of things that strike me as off in this analysis.

 

First, it assumes that:

 

1) we lynch someone every day;

2) We NEVER lynch an evil player (even with an active finder), only innocent players; and

3) The healer never protects the correct player

 

While the first and third assumptions are somewhat likely to hold true, the second seems particularly untenable. Does anyone remember a game where no evils were lynched? I don't.

 

Just making that one change to your modkill scenarios (and assuming the evil player is lynched prior to the day you marked "endgame"), you get the following results:

 

2 Evils:

 

Day 4: 1 evil, 4 innocent

Day 5: 1 evil, 2 innocent (ENDGAME/victory/defeat) (which brings up an interesting question - if the healer survives to be one of the final 2 players along with an evil, what happens? There's no nightkill possibility, because the healer selfprotects. And no lynch possibility with only 2 players left. A tie?)

 

I can live with this scenario.

 

3 Evils:

Day Three: 2 Evil, 5 innocent

Day Four: 2 Evil, 3 Innocent (ENDGAME)

 

Again, odds I could live with.

 

The possibility of lynching an evil is something Sirayn should have taken into account. Instead, we get a scary but superficial analysis of why we should lynch a player we all seem to believe is innocent, because of the possibility of a modkill.

 

That's fishy.

 

The other thing that seems fishy to me is that Sirayn ran an analysis on a 2 Evil game at all. Every single game I've watched she's taken as the bedrock assumption in her analysis that there are 3 evil players (particularly in a 12 player game). So the fact that she does a 2 player analysis strikes me as out of character.

 

More, she writes that she did an analysis of both 2 and 3 player evil teams because she's "not sure how many evil players there are" - which is a subtle way of making the rest of us believe, subconsciously, that she's innocent (hey, an evil player would know how many teammates there are, right?). So, out of character and possibly designed to induce us to believe she's innocent = super suspicious.

 

Now, we should hold off on killing Sirayn today - like I said, its a huge risk and the finder can let us know "tomorrow". But the fact that she's expending so much energy to save Zy makes me more convinced that he's evil. Again, I could be wrong - but I don't think we have any other good options.

 

As of right now, our choices seem to be:

 

1) Lynch loki, a player we assume is innocent and have no reason to believe is guilty;

2) Lynch Zy, a player we have some slight reason to believe is guilty (more due to Sirayn's activity than anything else, at this point), and whose innocence would point us somewhere else (at me or winter mist);

3) Lynch Sirayn, who is acting very strange, but whose death carries a huge risk if she's innocent and whose guilt or innocence we can definitively establish tomorrow; or

4) Lynch a completely random person who we have no reason to believe is guilty.

 

Folks, the only option that makes any sense at this point is 2. Lynch Zy.

[Alys Kinch]

first, you are not saying innocent, so something leads me to believe there is something there.

 

second, you did your damnedest to not answer any questions, didn't you?

 

third, i will come back after i read what kivam just added.

[the dude]

hahahahaha, ok...

 

innocent. i am innocent.

 

:D

 

and if you'll enumerate your specific questions, i'll gladly answer them, m'dear. 8)

[Alys Kinch]

more of a feeling than any proof. behaviour is one.

 

why did sira cut down to two evils?? i didn't even notice it since i don't always pay attention to the metagaming stuff.

[the dude]

well, i guess i am a little different this time, i dunno. can't say as i have an explanation. spring is coming?

 

i noticed that too. it seemed to be an odd thing to comment on. sirayn does indeed assume the 3-evil thing in almost all cases, and if she doesn't, she backs it up more. but why would she bring it up in the first place if there are only 2? i don't get that.

 

and i know she's around on the boards, but we haven't seen much of her have we?

[the dude]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand it's 5. see you all tomorrow! have a good one.

[Alys Kinch]

night, sir!

[Kivam]

well' date=' i guess i am a little different this time, i dunno. can't say as i have an explanation. spring is coming?

 

i noticed that too. it seemed to be an odd thing to comment on. sirayn does indeed assume the 3-evil thing in almost all cases, and if she doesn't, she backs it up more. but why would she bring it up in the first place if there are only 2? i don't get that.

 

and i know she's around on the boards, but we haven't seen much of her have we?[/quote']

 

No - if she's evil, the reason to bring up two is to make it seem like she doesn't know how many there are, and therefore she is innocent.

 

If she's innocent - well, I don't know why. But we'll find out evil or innocent tomorrow.

[GoodGrief]

*head swings from Sira to Kivam and back again*

This could be interesting. Two analysing analysts plus a Dudey-hunch on our most formidable player. Can anyone give me the odds of all three being innocent?

 

*sits in corner with plate of chocolate slice and rocks gently*

[Kivam]

*head swings from Sira to Kivam and back again*

This could be interesting. Two analysing analysts plus a Dudey-hunch on our most formidable player. Can anyone give me the odds of all three being innocent?

 

*sits in corner with plate of chocolate slice and rocks gently*

 

Sure - the odds of all 3 players being innocent (discounting any behavior) is the odds of each individual being innocent multiplied by eachother. So 100% (me, since I know I'm innocent)*75%(9/12 for Dude)*75%(9/12 for Sirayn) = 56% chance all 3 of us are innocent :lol:

 

I'm off to see the Yankees. Don't lynch anyone (unless it's Zy) while I'm gone, y'hear?

[GoodGrief]

And assuming that you have the same chance of being innocent as the other two, which is what everyone else has to assume? More like 42% isn't it?

[Kison]

I'm not sure what comment to make on the idea that I placed the second vote of the day on my own partner' date=' knowing that early votes often lead to a lynch, when I had 8-9 other people to vote for. I usually prefer not to lynch my own team. Perhaps I forgot who I was partnered with? Confused People come up with conspiracy theories about partners lynching partners a lot, but the fact is, it just shouldn't be done. You can argue that it saves you from the analysing analyst who analyses later in the game -- although I'm not sure who exactly other than me and apparently Kivam fits that mould -- but the potential payoff doesn't measure up to the definite and far from potential drawback. The evil team wins the game by keeping their partners alive. It's that simple.[/quote']

 

Just to back this up, any kind of theory that Sirayn is doing such and such to distance herself from her partner, where you have absolutely no evidence of such, is a little something called WIFOM(Wine in Front of Me).

 

"Well, if she's scum, she could be voting so-and-so to distance herself from her partner. But maybe she KNOWS that we'd be thinking that and instead voted for someone else. Or maybe she knows that we'd know that she'd know and instead..."

 

WIFOM = Bad.

 

if i die tonight' date=' it can mean one of two things.

 

1) sirayn is innocent and the pirates are trying to frame her.

 

2) sirayn is a pirate and wants people to think she's being framed.[/quote']

 

WIFOM.

 

if i don't die tonight' date=' it's because either sirayn is a pirate and doesn't want to draw attention to herself, or she's innocent and the pirates don't think that the frame-up will work, or they're anticipating that i'll be protected tonight.[/quote']

 

WIFOM.

 

Rule of thumb for the doc: Do not protect someone who announces need of protection UNLESS that person happens to be our cop. This is because there's no reason to protect a random townie over anyone else, as you do not know that their innocence is confirmed. Even if they are a townie, this allows the Mafia to guaranteed kill someone during the night. If you select your protection at random, then there is a random chance that they will attempt to kill the same person as you do. However, in the case of the cop, it is more IMPORTANT that he survives during the night.

 

Who do I think is scum at this point? Honestly, I don't know. I haven't read very deeply yet, but will do so shortly.

[SBoydW]

This is getting good already.... :D

 

I'm used to only sirayn really analizing anything... now kivam too! This is great! Sad thing is ... I'm not sure who to believe.... My vote will stand for now.

[Kivam]

And assuming that you have the same chance of being innocent as the other two' date=' which is what everyone else has to assume? More like 42% isn't it?[/quote']

 

Well, it's 3/4 of 56%, so it's 14*3 so - yeah, 42.

 

But that's why I put the wink smiley - 'cause while the odds are 56% to me, I know that's not what it is to the rest of you.

[Kivam]

Just to back this up' date=' any kind of theory that Sirayn is doing such and such to distance herself from her partner, where you have absolutely no evidence of such, is a little something called WIFOM(Wine in Front of Me).

 

"Well, if she's scum, she could be voting so-and-so to distance herself from her partner. But [i']maybe[/i] she KNOWS that we'd be thinking that and instead voted for someone else. Or maybe she knows that we'd know that she'd know and instead..."

 

WIFOM = Bad.

 

Oh, I agree. That's why I'm not jumping up and down screaming "Sirayn's a pirate! Lynch her! Lynch her!" Particularly since if our town sheriff quietly takes us up on our suggestion that they investigate Sirayn tonight, we'll know one way or the other tomorrow (discounting, as we have to, the possibility of a stab in the dark by the evil team killing our finder before they can reveal)

 

But the question for us right now isn't "do we have enough information to correctly and confidently pick a pirate to lynch?"

 

Because the answer to that is, obviously, "hell no." In fact, I'm suggesting we lynch Zy, who I'll openly admit is someone I have very little reason to think is a pirate. True, it's more reason than I have to think, say, Alys is a pirate (at the moment), but definitely not enough for me to very securely say "Zy is a pirate, and that's why we must lynch him"

 

But that doesn't make a difference.

 

Because the real question is much more basic: "Which person we lynch will give us the most information to work with going forward, whether they are innocent or guilty?"

 

And I think that the only possible answer to that is Zy.

 

If he's guilty, Sirayn starts looking really bad, as do people who defended her and the others on the Loki lynch move (Toy and Barm). We'll find out if Sirayn is guilty tomorrow (again, barring random nailing of our finder), and if she is, then the people who defended her also get added to the list of suspects. That means, essentially, you. And with 2 evils already down and a live finder, we start lynching and finding our way through the list, essentially guaranteeing a victory.

 

On the other hand, if he's guilty and Sirayn is innocent, then Kison becomes almost a lock as an innocent (given how dangerous an innocent Sirayn would be to the pirates, I can't see any pirate going out of their way to defend her if she isn't on their team). And the people pointing at Sirayn (me and the dude) start looking guilty.

 

So, if Zy turns up guilty after a lynch, we get a whole boatload of info coming our way.

 

And if he turns up innocent? Well, then Sirayn looks more innocent, I look guiltier (though I'm not), the dude looks more innocent, Winter Mist looks guiltier.

 

It's not the same amount of information as we get if he's guilty, but its still something.

 

Now, who else out there gives you anywhere near that information. Lynch me, and if I'm guilty you can essentially cross Sirayn and Zy off your list, but that's about the end of the information you get. And if I'm innocent? (which I am, though that can't impact anyone's calculation but mine, so leave that aside) You learn absolutely nothing, except that an innocent player had suspicions of Sirayn and Zy. Nobody else has so much as taken a position other than the Dude, who's based it all on his hunches, which don't give you much basis to pin him down one way or another (and again, if he's innocent we learn almost nothing).

 

So what it comes down to is this: If you agree with me that the goal of a day one lynch is more about gathering information than about finding a pirate, then we need to lynch Zy, and if it turns out he's a pirate, bonus. If you think its about finding a pirate . . . well, good luck with picking someone.

[SBoydW]

..... Wow..... Eh hem.... um well..... counter-argument Sirayn?

[Kivam]

FYI, I have a deposition in Staten Island tomorrow, so I won't be near a computer for the entire day.

 

In other words, unless I sneak a look tomorrow morning before I leave, I'm going to be MIA until at least 7pm Eastern.

 

G'night, all. Happy hunting.