What was Moiraine's plan if the dragon was a woman?

[WhiteVeils]

15 hours ago, Andra said:

So why bring him to Tar Valon at all, and put him directly in their hands?

     Because she did not know when she first left with the EF5 whether the Dragon was going to be Egwene or one of the boys. If she had known that it was Rand, she maybe would not have brought him to Tar Valon.

15 hours ago, Andra said:

 

Having a male sa'angreal wouldn't help him if she handed him to the Reds.

True.  But she did not know before they split up which of them it would be.

15 hours ago, Andra said:

   

And yet she did none of that.  Instead, she hid them from the Tower as much as she could.

She did not hide Egwene and Nynaeve. She presented them to the Amyrlin.  She did hide the boys, which she always planned to do if the Dragon reborn was male.

15 hours ago, Andra said:

   "Events" didn't cause her exile, Moiraine did that intentionally herself.  In part so she could continue to hide any potential Dragon she had from the rest of the Tower.  She didn't "roll with" her exile, it was her idea.

It was her idea to choose exile. However, it was Liandrin's choice to get Moiraine in trouble in the hall, which led to Siuan's choice to require a punishment for Moiraine which she would announce the very next day, and it was Maigan's choice to order Moiraine to stay at the Tower, and it was the Dark One's choice to reveal to Siuan that he was awakening at the Eye of the World. These events led to Moiraine's idea to choose exile as her punishment as her rapid response to use Siuan's punishment to get out of Maigan's demand. She only a few hours to take any action at all between the time she asked Siuan to exile her and the time she was exiled.   Just because it was her idea doesn't mean that she wasn't responding to events. If she had more time, she may have been able to procure a female s'angreal, but she didn't.

15 hours ago, Andra said:

Moiraine was not present to witness what happened between Egwene and Valda.  But she saw that Egwene wasn't injured - only Perrin. Nothing in what she was told about it indicated Egwene had faced "overwhelming terror and need," or that she had been beaten even once.

She knew Perrin had been tortured in front of Egwene.  She knew Eamon Valda tortures and kills Aes Sedai, and she knows that the pair got away from a large number of Whitecloaks.  That is enough, potentially, for her to potentially believe that Egwene had a cause to experience overwhelming terror and need. 

15 hours ago, Andra said:

  She had no information about how much power Egwene had channeled, or any reason to believe it should have been more than it was.  But at least she knew for certain that Egwene could actually channel.

We do not see the whole conversation between Egwene and Moiraine, nor do we know if they had any further conversations off screen about the incident.  She could easily expect a different reaction would have happened if Egwene had done a major channeling.

And even so, as I said, her having a /hint/ that Egwene at that late point in the time period might not be the Dragon does not mean she was certain.  All I said is she could have had a hunch that Egwene was not the Dragon based on that.  It still would not mean she would have been able to steal a female s'angreal in the time between asking Siuan to exile her and the time she was forced out of the city.  It only means she might be slightly less anxious about trying to do so.

15 hours ago, Andra said:

If we are to believe what the show is implying, Valda's technique has worked to overpower and execute seven full sisters.  Why would anyone have realistically expected someone who had never been trained (even the Dragon) to have stood up to it with no idea what they were doing?

She believes someone who had never been trained could stand up to the Dark One with no idea what they were doing, so this would be completely on brand.

 

15 hours ago, Andra said:

Again, Moiraine knew that Egwene (and Nynaeve) could channel, but had no idea if any of the boys could at all.  And she didn't until Rand told her about it.  AFTER she had already left Tar Valon without a female angreal or sa'angreal, or any way to get her hands on one.  But with a male sa'angreal she'd had since at least her very first scene in the show.

The would-be Dragon would be either Male or Female. They would either channel Saidin or Saidir.  She knew that long before the show started...there are only two options.  If they were female, she knew from the beginning that she could use the help of the Tower to support the would-be Dragon. She didn't need another secret plan.  If they were male, she knew from the beginning she would have to hide the Dragon and would need some other way to support them.  She was able to secure a male S'angreal for that possibility. When she secured it, she didn't know which it would be.

 

The question asked 'What was Moirane's Plan if the Dragon was a woman'.

The answer is: Take them to Tar Valon so the Tower could help them or give them anything they needed.

When she was exiled, she still didn't know so she couldn't follow that plan. She did not have a secondary backup plan of what to do if that primary plan failed.  She /may/ have had a hint that possibly she didn't need one.

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by WhiteVeils

[Andra]

10 hours ago, WhiteVeils said:

The question asked 'What was Moirane's Plan if the Dragon was a woman'.

Go back and read the opening post in this thread again.

The question was specifically in reference to her plan at the EYE.

 

Not her plan in general over the next few years or so, but right then.

 

When they left Tar Valon, she didn't know.    When they were in the Ways, she didn't know - with the implication even then being that it could have been Mat (who she later sicced the Reds on).  She apparently expected Min to tell her when she viewed them all, but that didn't happen.  Until Rand came to her, she still didn't know.

 

At that point - before talking to Rand - when as far as she knew the Dragon could be either of the two women with her, what was her plan for the Eye if it was one of them?

 

None of what you have written here addresses that question.

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by Andra

[Raal Gurniss]

10 hours ago, Andra said:

Go back and read the opening post in this thread again.

The question was specifically in reference to her plan at the EYE.

 

Not her plan in general over the next few years or so, but right then.

 

When they left Tar Valon, she didn't know.    When they were in the Ways, she didn't know - with the implication even then being that it could have been Mat (who she later sicced the Reds on).  She apparently expected Min to tell her when she viewed them all, but that didn't happen.  Until Rand came to her, she still didn't know.

 

At that point - before talking to Rand - when as far as she knew the Dragon could be either of the two women with her, what was her plan for the Eye if it was one of them?

 

None of what you have written here addresses that question.

 

You mean that was the sole extent of her planning?

 

Or in reality was the whole thing included purely for 2 purposes?

 

one for a bit of suspense and the other for purpose of agenda…

 

Means nothing else after that does it?

[Andra]

7 hours ago, Raal Gurniss said:

You mean that was the sole extent of her planning?

 

Or in reality was the whole thing included purely for 2 purposes?

 

one for a bit of suspense and the other for purpose of agenda…

 

Means nothing else after that does it?

As written, that appears to have been the extent of her planning.  Take the Dragon to the Eye, have him/her face the "Dark One" - and hope.  It doesn't even have the benefit of what the book did.  To bring three strong Ta'veren to the Eye and give that hope a chance to mean something. 

The exception is that she prepared far ahead of time for a male Dragon by bringing help he could use when needed.  But no preparation whatsoever if it turned out to be a woman.

 

The show clearly wanted viewers to think the Dragon could be reborn as a woman, and had characters say so repeatedly.  With even Logaine using Moiraine's words to refer to Nynaeve as a "raging sun."  But Moiraine never acted as you would expect her to if she if she had actually believed that. 

 

She made preparations to help a male Dragon, but none to help a female.  She watched the Reds gentle a potential male Dragon, but is never shown to have even bothered looking for any potential females prior to the Two Rivers visit.  And she never tried to train either of them (beyond Egwene's first testing), nor told them as much about what the Prophecies said about the Dragon as she said just in passing in the book.

 

Hence the "posturing" comment.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Andra

[Andra]

This is not directly addressing the primary question in this thread, but is related to the discussion:

 

In my view, the fact of the apparent sa'angreal Moiraine had from the beginning leads to a few possible conclusions.  Each of which violates booklore to some extent, but which could all be included in Rafe's changes in the show.  Some of them produce less internal inconsistency in the show than others. 

Note that these conclusions don't address the Taint, as we don't know enough about how Rafe is dealing with it to speculate.

Also note that these are all about what Moiraine may have believed, not what is necessarily true in-universe:

 

1: There is no gender split in the One Power.  So there are no gendered objects of Power either.  And any Dragon - male or female - could have used it at the Eye.  There was no need for a second one.

This produces an internal inconsistency in the show, as Moiraine could have used it fighting trollocs in the first episode, but didn't.

 

2: The One Power is still gendered, but at least some sa'angreal aren't.  Either Saidin or Saidar could be channeled through it, depending on who was using it.  This would be one of those, so there was no need for a second one.

Same internal inconsistency as #1.

 

3: The One Power is still gendered, but souls aren't.  Or at least not the same as the bodies they're born into.  So a soul that can use a male sa'angreal (the Dragon) could be reborn into a female body.  The hypothetical female Dragon would still be channeling Saidin, and using the male sa'angreal.  So there was no need for a second one.  

This produces the internal inconsistency that Moiraine continued to claim Egwene (and Nynaeve?) could be the Dragon Reborn even after knowing she could channel Saidar, rather than Saidin.  But it would at least explain why she never attempted to train either of them.

 

4: The Source and sa'angreal are gendered, but female channelers are inherently stronger in the Power than males.  So a male Dragon would have needed help that a female Dragon wouldn't have.  And there was no need for a second one. 

We know in the books that Moiraine was wrong about their relative strengths, so it wouldn't be inconsistent for her to believe this in the show.  And the show does appear to say Nynaeve was stronger than Logaine - though we know in the books that she wasn't.

This doesn't produce an internal inconsistency as much as it perpetuated the Unreliable Narrator idea.

 

5: Oh yeah.  One more possible conclusion.  This one doesn't violate booklore about the magic system, but it does require a violation of the First Oath - contradicting both the books AND the show:

The claim that the Dragon Reborn could be anything other than an individual male channeler (not a woman, not a "five-headed Dragon") was always BS.  And Moiraine always knew it.  Which is why she made preparations for a male Dragon, and none for a female.

This would mean the idea was an artificial mystery inserted into the show for no better reason than to gull non-readers into believing there was a mystery.  As evidenced by the fact that no one in the show ever does any of the things you would expect this idea would prompt them to do.

 

Unfortunately for the show and its viewers, I suspect #5 is the real reason.

[VooDooNut]

Is it possible Moiraine told everyone there was equal probability of a female/male/multi-headed Dragon simply to add confusion to the identity of the Dragon (protection through confusion/disinformation for those seeking the Dragon)?

[WhiteVeils]

OR

6.  Moiraine only thought she would need a secret s'angreal if the Dragon was male, because if the Dragon was female, she could, once determined, be presented publicly presented to the Tower without risk and gain whatever help the Tower could provide.

 

As I've been saying.

[Andra]

2 hours ago, VooDooNut said:

Is it possible Moiraine told everyone there was equal probability of a female/male/multi-headed Dragon simply to add confusion to the identity of the Dragon (protection through confusion/disinformation for those seeking the Dragon)?

Not if she actually believed it could only be what it turned out to be.

The First Oath would have prevented her saying it outright, as she did in the show.

 

She could have said "it's one of these people" without violating the Oath, as long as that group includes the one person she actually believed it could be.  But she couldn't say "it can be any of them."

 

It's possible for her to have said something that was wrong.  Being mistaken isn't the same thing as lying.  But she can't say something she disbelieves.

[Andra]

6 hours ago, WhiteVeils said:

OR

6.  Moiraine only thought she would need a secret s'angreal if the Dragon was male, because if the Dragon was female, she could, once determined, be presented publicly presented to the Tower without risk and gain whatever help the Tower could provide.

 

As I've been saying.

That's possible.  My list was not intended to be exhaustive.

But that produces inconsistencies of its own.

 

In the books, Moiraine and Siuan had a series of reasons to hide the Dragon's presence from the rest of the Tower.  Reasons they understood could result in them being "stilled or worse."

Only one of those reasons (the risk of the Dragon being gentled immediately as soon as the Reds got their hands on him) wouldn't apply if the Dragon were female.

 

They both understood that the Dragon Reborn needed to be free to act on his own in order to fulfill prophecy.  That couldn't happen "wearing a Tar Valon leash."  A female Dragon would need to stay away from the Tower just as much as a male.  See Egwene's final conversation with Elaida before she flipped out to show that even she understood that need for personal action.

 

They both knew from hard personal experience that the Black Ajah existed.  Bringing a female Dragon into the Tower would risk putting her directly in the hands - or at least under the influence - of the Black.  Something that only Dumai's Wells prevented in the books.  Keeping a female Dragon away from the Tower would minimize that risk as far as it could possibly be.

The Black Ajah aren't specifically named in the show, but Moiraine does mention "darkfriends in the Tower" who destroyed important records.  Which could have only happened by, or with the approval of, Sisters.  In other words, Black Ajah.

 

They both also knew that it was important for the Dragon to be SEEN as independent of the Tower, in order to not have built-in distrust of the Aes Sedai's motivations transferred directly to the DR.  This would have been an even harder sell for a female Dragon than for a male.

 

Moiraine could have (and would have) gotten help from Siuan in supporting and protecting a female Dragon just as much as a male.  Help that would have included getting her a female sa'angreal if it was warranted.  But that help would still have needed to be secret, and for pretty much the same reasons.

 

Remember that for the past TWENTY YEARS, only Lan knew what Moiraine and Siuan were doing.  And they kept it that way for reasons that wouldn't disappear if the Dragon were a woman.

Edited March 12, 2022 by Andra

[William Seahill]

Begin showing the dragon reborn how to channel properly?  Moraine would use this as an opportunity to convince her to go to Tar Valon and become an Aes Sedai.  (If the dragon reborn was a woman, she’d likely be a powerful channeler.)

[Andra]

On 3/15/2022 at 1:16 PM, William Seahill said:

Begin showing the dragon reborn how to channel properly?  Moraine would use this as an opportunity to convince her to go to Tar Valon and become an Aes Sedai.  (If the dragon reborn was a woman, she’d likely be a powerful channeler.)

That's what you might normally expect.

But for both of the potential female Dragons, she did nothing of the sort.

 

She briefly tested Egwene (the scene with the blue jewel that "flickered").  But did nothing with Nynaeve that we ever see.  And spent no more time on actually training Egwene - again, that we ever see - than that first testing.  

 

You'd think that if the Dragon was someone she could help before going to the Eye that she would have.

 

In the book, she provided more training than that.  And she knew neither of them could be the Dragon Reborn.

[Cauthonfan4]

On 3/19/2022 at 1:37 AM, Andra said:

You'd think that if the Dragon was someone she could help before going to the Eye that she would have.

 

In the book, she provided more training than that.  And she knew neither of them could be the Dragon Reborn.

yeah well we already know the writing for the show was pretty bad to begin with, what's one more problem  at this point?

 

Stuff like this could have just been avoided by sticking closer to the source, as it's going to create additional problems later on, on top of all the problems its already created.

Edited March 20, 2022 by Cauthonfan4

[William Seahill]

On 3/18/2022 at 10:37 PM, Andra said:

That's what you might normally expect.

But for both of the potential female Dragons, she did nothing of the sort.

 

She briefly tested Egwene (the scene with the blue jewel that "flickered").  But did nothing with Nynaeve that we ever see.  And spent no more time on actually training Egwene - again, that we ever see - than that first testing.  

 

You'd think that if the Dragon was someone she could help before going to the Eye that she would have.

 

In the book, she provided more training than that.  And she knew neither of them could be the Dragon Reborn.

Yeah, what’s up with that?  One would think that she’d have a better plan than ‘hold this blue stone’.  Aren’t Blue Ajah supposed to be really good at finding out things?  

Edited March 21, 2022 by William Seahill

[WhiteVeils]

Well, the timeline was compressed. It was, like, 2 nights maybe in the show before they separated at Shadar Logoth, and Moiraine was very injured at the time. So even if she'd planned to give more over the month going to Tar Valon, she couldn't.  And honestly, just because all we see is her with the stone didn't mean that more training didn't happen in those two nights than we saw. After all, Egwene went from not knowing she could channel to knowing how to channel a flame by the time she was alone with Perrin.

[William Seahill]

2 hours ago, WhiteVeils said:

Well, the timeline was compressed. It was, like, 2 nights maybe in the show before they separated at Shadar Logoth, and Moiraine was very injured at the time. So even if she'd planned to give more over the month going to Tar Valon, she couldn't.  And honestly, just because all we see is her with the stone didn't mean that more training didn't happen in those two nights than we saw. After all, Egwene went from not knowing she could channel to knowing how to channel a flame by the time she was alone with Perrin.

The show’s compressed timeline doesn’t explain why her plan for Egwene was ‘hold this blue stone.’  Also, if the stone is simply a focus aid, then why wouldn’t’ve just any old rock worked? 

[WhiteVeils]

In the books, Moiraine first learned to channel by using that same blue stone in her own jewelry to focus her own ability in the One Power. She continues to use it as a focus to listen in on conversations. In the books she begins teaching Egwene to channel in exactly the same way, word for word, as she does in the show.  She uses that particular blue stone because that's how she learned.  The timeline in the show and things happening off screen explains why she didn't have more advanced lessons, but in terms of how she taught Egwene, it's just like in the books.

Edited March 21, 2022 by WhiteVeils

[Andra]

10 hours ago, William Seahill said:

Yeah, what’s up with that?  One would think that she’d have a better plan than ‘hold this blue stone’.  Aren’t Blue Ajah supposed to be really good at finding out things?  

That part is actually straight from the book.

There are different ways to test if someone can channel, but they all involve watching the candidate as they concentrate on someone else channeling.  The blue stone is Moiraine's personal method.

 

The idea that all Blues are all spies or detectives is one of the problems with the way the show deals with the meaning of the Ajahs.

[Andra]

9 hours ago, WhiteVeils said:

And honestly, just because all we see is her with the stone didn't mean that more training didn't happen in those two nights than we saw. After all, Egwene went from not knowing she could channel to knowing how to channel a flame by the time she was alone with Perrin.

It also doesn't mean that any more did happen.

In the book, we are explicitly shown both Moiraine and Lan teaching the Emond's Fielders - her teaching Egwene about channeling, him teaching the boys how to use their weapons.  We also see Moiraine explaining history and prophecy to all of them.

Literally none of that is seen in the show.

 

And in the show, supposedly any one of them (or all of them) could be the Dragon Reborn.  Yet we don't see Moiraine making any attempt to give any information to any of them at all.  Including information about what would make any of them qualify as the DR.

 

The show has Nynaeve healing multiple people en masse, with no training whatsoever.  And both could enter a Link without apparently having even heard of one before.  The fact that Egwene could light a small campfire without being trained to do so becomes essentially meaningless.

 

---

Incidentally, if we accept the companion materials on Amazon as canon for the show, there were actually eleven days between fleeing the Two Rivers and taking shelter in Shadar Logoth.  Plenty of time for some of that explanation/training to have occurred.  But apparently not enough time to have shown any of it.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Andra

[WhiteVeils]

 Yes, the decision to show or not show something is based on audience interest and storytelling, minutes of screentime available, sets, locations, training, and special effects costs, many other things.  It didn't show them going to the bathroom either, but we can assume they did so.
In the books we only have one scene in book one of Moiraine training Egwene...the same one in the show.  The only seen of Lan training the boys is in a scene not in the show, and no more until the Great Hunt, and that scene is pretty general.  We have Rand thinking that training occurred,  but not actual page count.

 

I know that won't matter to you, though.

[Andra]

4 hours ago, WhiteVeils said:

 Yes, the decision to show or not show something is based on audience interest and storytelling, minutes of screentime available, sets, locations, training, and special effects costs, many other things.  It didn't show them going to the bathroom either, but we can assume they did so.
In the books we only have one scene in book one of Moiraine training Egwene...the same one in the show.  The only seen of Lan training the boys is in a scene not in the show, and no more until the Great Hunt, and that scene is pretty general.  We have Rand thinking that training occurred,  but not actual page count.

 

I know that won't matter to you, though.

 

Yes, this conversation has happened over and over and over. 

 

What is shown on screen is what the writers thought was important for the viewers to see.  And specifically what the showrunner wanted them to.  Which is based on what he thought the viewers needed to know.  And he didn't think the viewers needed to know the protagonists learned anything.  Either because they already knew everything (as appears to be the case with Nynaeve) or because it wouldn't ever matter if they know anything (as appears to be the case with the boys).

 

The fact that something unimportant - like bodily functions - doesn't appear onscreen is meaningless.  The fact that something important - like a few minutes of a training montage - DOESN'T appear is pretty much the opposite of meaningless.  Pretending the two are equivalent to the storytelling is disingenuous.

 

The book shows training happening explicitly in one scene each for channeling and weapons, then specifically says that the lessons continued every night.  A training montage wouldn't have needed more than a couple minutes of screen time, nor would it have to be detailed.  But it should have happened.  If for no other reason than that it's part of character development.  Hell, even just having Lan say one time in camp that they're getting better with their weapons would accomplish that.  Unfortunately, Rafe doesn't seem to think character development matters.

 

As we keep hearing from people who defend the writing, this is a visual medium.  "Show, don't tell."  But it never shows.  And the time and other resources it would have taken to show training is miniscule in comparison to the time and other resources wasted on stuff Rafe decided on his own to add.

 

In the book, we see more of what would qualify as Moiraine preparing a potential female Dragon (where it isn't even a possibility) than we do in the show (where it supposedly is).  Which is the entire point of the discussion.

 

I know that won't matter to you, though.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Andra

[VooDooNut]

As far as weapon training scenes go, the best one, in my opinion, is

Spoiler

the sequence at the beginning of The Great Hunt with Lan and Rand.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see them training early in season 2. I don't mind that we haven't seen Rand train with the sword yet, as it was never relevant in season 1 anyway and its absence leaves room for him to grow in later seasons.

 

I think there was enough training of Egwene by Moiraine shown in season 1 to imply she could have learned the very basic ability to launch a measly flame from her hand under pressure, after presumably having some brief practice on her own post-Shadar Logoth. The power levels displayed during the battle in episode 8 were definitely a step up, but the lack of control in a circle seemed to really scare Egwene and Nynaeve as they were not prepared for this kind of channeling, so I think it served as a good example of them stretching beyond their capabilities.

 

In my head canon, I'm going with the idea that Moiraine "lied" (bent the truth) about there being multiple possible Dragons just to throw everyone off. I'm re-watching season 1 to check, but I think this would be a simple way to resolve the main prompt of this thread.

[Andra]

37 minutes ago, VooDooNut said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we see them training early in season 2. I don't mind that we haven't seen Rand train with the sword yet, as it was never relevant in season 1 anyway and its absence leaves room for him to grow in later seasons.

I really liked the very first weapons training scene.  Where all three of the boys showed how good they were with Mat's (not Rand's) bow.  It surprised Lan, introduced Rand's prior knowledge of the Flame and the Void, and set the stage for later in the series where Two Rivers folk prove remarkably competent at battle.  Because they hold contests with bow, sling and quarterstaff (as well as "darts" - which could be the pub game or the actual weapons) as part of their holiday celebrations.  And I think someone mentions wrestling once, as well.

 

Something else the show declines to even mention.

 

My only real concern at this point with Rand and his sword is that as episode 8 ends, he heads off on his own.  So where will he ever get the training that he will eventually need?  And remember that he had received enough training by the time they got to Caemlyn that Bryne recognized that he and the sword belonged together.

Whereas in the show, it looked like Darkfriend Dana knew how to use his sword better than he did.

Edited March 22, 2022 by Andra

[WhiteVeils]

I don't know if Rand will get weapons training early in S2, but I am currently guessing between S2 and S3 or in early S3, there will be a significant time skip in the Stone of Tear where a lot of training etc can have occured.  Perrin may get some training in the axe during S2, and it would not surprise me if it is Perrin that faces High Lord Turok while Rand battles Ishy.

[Chivalry]

I think the training will be brief, and after an obvious time jump (Seaon 1 - 2), with some comment like "you've improved much over the past month. I remember when you couldn't blah blah blah..." That's fine, just don't let newbies be masters.

 

[Andra]

2 hours ago, WhiteVeils said:

I don't know if Rand will get weapons training early in S2, but I am currently guessing between S2 and S3 or in early S3, there will be a significant time skip in the Stone of Tear where a lot of training etc can have occured.  Perrin may get some training in the axe during S2, and it would not surprise me if it is Perrin that faces High Lord Turok while Rand battles Ishy.

We have been told that tGH and tDR are being combined into season 2.  There are a number of very important battles Rand has to fight before the end of all that.  Battles he has to fight with his sword.  Two of which leave him with marks the prophecies require.

How can any of that happen if he doesn't know one end of the sword from the other until after the battles are already over?  How could he fight Ishy?

 

He wouldn't live long enough to take the Stone if he doesn't get trained until afterward.