The Shadow comes to Tar Valon ..... and does what?

[Toy and Minion]

lmao

 

that would be one way to take tar valon out!

[missinginstereo]

Egwene is still knocking at Tar Valons door with her army, so what happens when the trollocs come pounding in? Unless Egwene has fought her way into the Tower then her army will be destroyed first.

However, if a massive Trolloc army does come running in then Elaida may just show mercy. Or perhaps, an attack from the waygate would allow Egwenes army in and then things take their course from then on in.

 

There's too many variables. You've got Egwene pounding at the gates, an impending dark attack and the Seanchan looking for someone to smack around.

 

For me, the most likely scenario is one big cluster you know what. Trollocs, darkfriends, myrdraal, draghkar, aes sedai from elaida, her army, egwenes aes sedai, her army, rand and his lot and then the seanchan all fighting each other. Eventually the light will unite to drive the dark army back and bring about the final battle where there will only be 2 sides fighting to the bitter end.

I have a feeling that it will be Mats relationship with Tuon that will change the tide in favour of the light and with Rand in the Tower and the situation so dire Elaida will have no choice but to accept Egwene. It may be that Elaida dies in battle and allows Egwene to grasp control of the tower.

[Toy and Minion]

I agree, in that i also believe it will be Tuon that will turn the table to favor the light. But I also belive that rand will have his own battle, similar to tGH where he will fight Moridin.

[Beckon]

lmao

 

that would be one way to take tar valon out!

 

All this military strategizing is really quite beyond me. The only thing I seem able to latch onto is Elaida = radish. It makes me giggle.

[Guest Barmacral]

Egwene is still knocking at Tar Valons door with her army' date=' so what happens when the trollocs come pounding in? Unless Egwene has fought her way into the Tower then her army will be destroyed first.

However, if a massive Trolloc army does come running in then Elaida may just show mercy. Or perhaps, an attack from the waygate would allow Egwenes army in and then things take their course from then on in.

 

There's too many variables. You've got Egwene pounding at the gates, an impending dark attack and the Seanchan looking for someone to smack around.

 

For me, the most likely scenario is one big cluster you know what. Trollocs, darkfriends, myrdraal, draghkar, aes sedai from elaida, her army, egwenes aes sedai, her army, rand and his lot and then the seanchan all fighting each other. Eventually the light will unite to drive the dark army back and bring about the final battle where there will only be 2 sides fighting to the bitter end.

I have a feeling that it will be Mats relationship with Tuon that will change the tide in favour of the light and with Rand in the Tower and the situation so dire Elaida will have no choice but to accept Egwene. It may be that Elaida dies in battle and allows Egwene to grasp control of the tower.[/quote']

 

How far are you in the series? This argument would be much stronger pre-KoD, but some critical things changed there to make Luckers idea more feasable.

[missinginstereo]

It's been over a year since i finished the series and i've forgotten most of the key facts.

What am i missing?

As far as moridin goes(that's the uber myrdraal, right?) im not believing that he'll meet his end at the hands of rand.

Wait, no. Moridin's the one with the black flecks in his eyes?

[Guest Barmacral]

lol... maybe you should reread the series again...

 

Moridin is the Nae'blis... Shadar Haran is the Mydraal.

Egwene is in the tower, so it'll not come to an open assault between the two armies, and it'll not be too tough for her to bring her army into the city once she takes control.

[Wanderer]

Assuming that the Shadow will attack Tar Valon for real, the Luckers's theory is quite realistic.Being the Shadow's General I would laugh with pleasure!

 

Their numbers are overwhelming the Light's on each area:

 

footsoldiers, nearly no need even to speak... trollocs are countless, they erased what they wanted in the Trollocs wars and that was only one thousand year after the Time of Madness, now TWO thousands years have passed and the trollocs could be more than 10 millions; not to mention all the human darkfriend scattered around Randland, the forsaken are planning calmly and can gather them quite easily.

 

Channelers that's the important point, like has been said think about Dumai's wells, channelers are the key that make the difference and the Shadow has plenty of them. And Aside from numbers dark channelers can be as effective as damane as weapon, maybe they know Blossom of Fire and Arrows of fire, the Forsaken surely know those weaves as well as Lews Therin. As Rand said in KoD warfare has been completly changed by those weaves combined with Travel.

 

More important the Shadow will plan its attack and the Light will have to react: the armies of the Light won't come in aid soon, assuming that they really will come from other places, which I doubt, they will have others things on their plate to chew.

 

One of the gates could fall easily with a combined attack from a Traveling channeler force inside of the walls, Draghkar from the sky and channelers outside, the Shadow will gather as much channelers as needed but the Light won't know how many until is too late.

 

One possiblity is that the Shadow will not attack Tar Valon, and the only battle will be beetwen Seanchan and Aes Sedai...

[missinginstereo]

lol... maybe you should reread the series again...

 

Moridin is the Nae'blis... Shadar Haran is the Mydraal.

Egwene is in the tower' date=' so it'll not come to an open assault between the two armies, and it'll not be too tough for her to bring her army into the city once she takes control.[/quote']

oh yeah, she's been made novice again. Caught making the harbour chains into cuendillar? I remember now.

[Leopoled Boothe]

One possiblity is that the Shadow will not attack Tar Valon, and the only battle will be beetwen Seanchan and Aes Sedai...

 

I agree with this 100% I don't think their will be an overt assault on Tar Valon by the Shadow. First of all we already know the the Seanchan will attack the tower in AMoL and two assults on Tar Valon in one book will be quite repetitive. Secondly, it just isn't consistant with the Shadow's style. Whenever the Shadow encounters a powerfull threat it does not try to annialate it but rather attempts to subdue it and claim that power for its own. The best example can be found in the DO's desire to turn The Dragon Reborn to his side rather than killing him. Other examples can be found in the ways the forsaken have delt with powerfull nations. Rhavin, Be'lal and Sammael all usurped the power of Andor, Tear and Illian respectivly without any millitary force thus claiming all the power of these nations completely intact. Granted they each did this for personal gain rather than for the collecive good of the Shadow but this brings me to another point, wouldn't it be likely that Messana would have similar designs on Tar Valon and would want to claim it, intact, as her own base of power. She should certainly be able to obtain the DO's endorcement on this because with Tar Valon being such a fortified fortress think what an asset to the Shadow it could be during TG. Moreover, Messana has seen alot of success in her plans to bring down the tower from within considering that the Tower itself is divided and within the tower the Ajahs are all but divided against one another. So untimalty it will be the Seanchan who will inadvertantly undermine Messana's plans.

 

Here is a basic synopsis of how I see the Seanchan vs White Tower battle going. During their association with Mat some of the Deathwatch Guard help themselves to some of Aludra's dragons or to their blueprints. These dragons are taken back to Seanchan territory where they are studied and mass produced. These dragons are then empolyed in the seige of Tar Valon. The Salidar AS who are camped nearby do not stand by and allow TV to be destroyed but the are quickly subdued by damane and forced to retreat. Garath Bryne bings his amry to their aid but will only set up a perimiter to defend the Salidar AS and refuses to directly aid the Tower because he is sworn to Egwene and aiding her enemies would be equal to treason.

 

Being faced with weapons the like of which the world had not see in over 3000 year, the fabeled walls of Tar Valon will take to major damage form the dragons. This will cause all kinds of disaray within the tower. Elaida will be unable to rally the Ajahs around her and through one of her typical foolhardy actions will get herself captured and collared (now won't that be a satisfying scene?). This will give Egwene the opportunity to step up. Just as the fabeled walls of TV come crashing to the ground Egwene's newfound novice admirers will arive lead by Leane (all quite unbound by the 3 oaths) flinging all sorts of Egwene's new fancy weaves at the Seanchan invaders. Meanwhile Egwene contacts Suian via TAR and relays the order for Bryne to come to the aid of the Tower. At this pivotal moment one Tower AS will declare herself for Egwene and thereby will inspire others to do so and to rally behind Egwene. Ultimatly, the Seachan find themselves in a pinch between the newly reunited White Tower and Bryne's army (this will include a few scenes with Uno fighting like a complete bada$$ and cursing up a storm, because hey I miss the guy) and be forced to retreat. Moreover, it will be revealed that just prior to the attack Pervera's group had obtained enough evidence to bust Alverian. Alvi will promptly be arrested and with a little "persuation" will begin revealing all sorts of names. Some Black Ajah will be captured and stilled while others will flee only to appear later serving the Shadow in other capasities during TG.

 

A few nights following the attack Egwene will be alone the the Amyrlin's quarters when out the the cornor of her eye she detects a stream of balefire which she barly dodges. She looks to find that the attacker is the very AS who first declared for her. This AS will turn out to be the long sought after secret identity of Messana, who initally aided Egwene because the Seanchan posed a severe threat to her base of power, but now with them out of the way Egwene must go. This will lead to one the the climatic one one battles, Messana vs. Egwene, which will ultimatly end with a rather toasty Messana. Egwene will then decide it is time to mobilize the AS on the offensive against the Shadow where they will remain for the remainder of TG.

 

I know this was a bit lax on the detail but it is a basic synopsis of what I think the one and only assault on Tar Valon will be like. Feel free to rip it apart if you wish.

[DemandredFO]

Personally I think the scenario is to rosey for the AS but I must say I hope there is a 1 on 1 Egwene vs. Mesaana grudge match

[Wanderer]

This is an interesting theory :o , the destruction of the Tar Valon walls by the action of the dragons would be quite a sight. But the fact is that I think the first and only person to use them will be Mat Cauthon, there's nothing that suggest the few deathwatch guards have been able to steal anything but some hints of what Mat has as his trump card...

 

Another problem is how the seanchan army could reach Tar Valon without being spotted so that some word could reach the White Tower...My theory is that the Seanchan will soon learn how to Travel and with that, without all the restriction of shadowspawn concerning gateways, they will be able to tear the Tower apart from inside of its walls.

But how will the Seanchan learn that? There are several possibilities and it's the more practical way to carry on a smooth conquest of the City.

[Guest Barmacral]

The seanchan are flying to Tar Valon via Raken and To'Raken. I don't think that they will find a way to travel at any point in the series. And how to get there unnoticed? There are places on the map that they can go unnoticed, such as the Caralain Grass lands... a place which is very simple to reach through the Almoth Plain.

[Wanderer]

They would need a LOT of to'raken to transport easily the numbers of soldiers, damane & sul'dam needed to carry on the siege of Tar Valon...and even more important it would be difficult for them to pass the walls without Travel, to'raken are easily spotted and targeted and one hit to them and they lose all of the people on it...

 

The Caralain Grass path means crossing the Andoran border if they proceed by foot, yes there would be no problem if they use to'raken but so far they haven't shown so many of them; when they plan to attack Illian they carry on a plan based on infantry as we learn from the reports of many carts and wagons.

Maybe they really have more to'raken than we are aware of.

[mègon]

I would just like to point out that there will not be any sort of assault on TV by shadow spawn through the ways.

 

Am I the only one that remembers in book 4 or 5 when a party is going through the ways (can't remember who is in it) and they see the shadow spawn all contorted in front of one of the bridges? Loial makes a comment saying "that's the bridge to TV. They must've put wards on it"

 

Firstly, to move enough to make an effective attack without being discovered would draw MS like a fly to honey and they would all die.

 

Secondly, the path to TV is warded against shadow spawn, and will kill any that try to get through.

 

Thirdly, any large force moving through the ways, whether shadow spawn or not will have to deal with problem #1. Unless the cleansing of saidin somehow cleaned the ways too. Which I don't believe it did.

 

I'm thinking the Seanchan. Especially because of Egwene's dream with the flame and the raven (or some bird) and interprets it as an attack upon the tower by the seanchan.

[Leopoled Boothe]

This is an interesting theory :o , the destruction of the Tar Valon walls by the action of the dragons would be quite a sight. But the fact is that I think the first and only person to use them will be Mat Cauthon, there's nothing that suggest the few deathwatch guards have been able to steal anything but some hints of what Mat has as his trump card...

 

Yah, but I seem to remember Kadere eying some of Aludra's weapons (not dragons but something else) before he parted ways with Mat and I thought this might be forshadowing something. Also, considering how Mat feels about AS I think it would provide a nice ironic twist if something he helped create ended up bringing down the walls of Tar Valon. Whatever the case in the name of dramatic effect I think those walls need to come crashing down and the Seanchan invasion would be as good a time as any to do it.

[Leopoled Boothe]

Personally I think the scenario is to rosey for the AS but I must say I hope there is a 1 on 1 Egwene vs. Mesaana grudge match

 

Rosey how? What do you mean?

[DemandredFO]

Leopoled I read your post again and it makes more sense to me now, sorry bout that

Megon it was in book 1 and you're right I had forgotten about that, however, Machin Shin is not at home cuz ****Spoiler Warning**** 100,000 go through at once and appear close to Algarin manor house in KoD. Moridin even comments on it so MS is no issue but the TV bridge wardings I could see. That could be when the BA are caught after they take off the wardings.

Wanderer there are several threads on the Seanchan attack, one I know is called Egwene Seanchan dream. This and other explain some people's views. My personal opinion is that Luckers has the best theory but to each his own

[Luckers]

Egwene is still knocking at Tar Valons door with her army, so what happens when the trollocs come pounding in? Unless Egwene has fought her way into the Tower then her army will be destroyed first.

However, if a massive Trolloc army does come running in then Elaida may just show mercy. Or perhaps, an attack from the waygate would allow Egwenes army in and then things take their course from then on in.

 

Um... im confused, why would any of Egwene's army be left outside the gates of Tar Valon. She would have everything inside the city walls in order to contain the Seanchan within the Tower Grounds.

 

And what does Elaida have to do with anything? By that time she would no longer be Amyrilin. Most likely she'd be leashed.

 

It's been over a year since i finished the series and i've forgotten most of the key facts.

What am i missing?

As far as moridin goes(that's the uber myrdraal, right?) im not believing that he'll meet his end at the hands of rand.

Wait, no. Moridin's the one with the black flecks in his eyes?

 

 

Your forgetting the impending Seanchan attack. launched from Tarabon via to'raken it will land 3000+ Damane, 3000+ sul'dam and 6000 soldiers on the Tower roof. Elaida will either falter, or be leashed, and Egwene will take over, unifying those Aes Sedai she can find. The Seanchan will take the tower, but Egwene will gather the rebels for a counter-attack. By the time the shadow arrives Egwene will be in the city laying siege to the Tower.

 

Channelers that's the important point, like has been said think about Dumai's wells, channelers are the key that make the difference and the Shadow has plenty of them. And Aside from numbers dark channelers can be as effective as damane as weapon, maybe they know Blossom of Fire and Arrows of fire, the Forsaken surely know those weaves as well as Lews Therin. As Rand said in KoD warfare has been completly changed by those weaves combined with Travel.

 

Actually this isn't nessasarily true. We know they have somewhere around 300 or so Black Ajah, though not all of those will be in the city. They also have around 100 Asha'men under Taim, but that is the only proven darkfriend channelers we know of. They are very few darkfriend sul'dam, no darkfriend Kin. Yes there are likely to be darkfriend Wise Ones and Windfinders we dont know about, and it seems likely that Ishamael began recruiting channelers as much as 20 years ago.

 

But best case scenario the light still outnumbers the shadow in channelers. However thats not nessasarily as bad as it sounds. Again at Dumai's Wells we saw how a much smaller group of channelers can contain the effectiveness of a much larger group, at least for a time. All we would need the dark channelers to do is limit the effectiveness of the lights channelers, and then sit back and let the Trollocs and sabotuers do the rest.

 

I agree with this 100% I don't think their will be an overt assault on Tar Valon by the Shadow. First of all we already know the the Seanchan will attack the tower in AMoL and two assults on Tar Valon in one book will be quite repetitive. Secondly, it just isn't consistant with the Shadow's style. Whenever the Shadow encounters a powerfull threat it does not try to annialate it but rather attempts to subdue it and claim that power for its own.

 

That was the case prior to Tarmon Gai'don. The Shadow had a vested interest then in fostering the division of the various political groups on the side of the light. That being said, they have talen that as far as they can get it. The Shaido have been wiped out, peace and order are being brought back to Randland. Rand and the Seanchan are talking peacibly, the Aes Sedai and the Asha'men are getting on, Egwene's getting increasing support.

 

The fact is that they've weakened the light as far as it will go, and delay now gives the light time to begin to restrengthen its bonds. There are only five political groups remaining... the Seanchan, Rand, the Rebels, the Tower and the Borderlanders. And everything needed to allow for their unification is being set up. Especially with Semirhage and Aran'gar displaced.

 

For the Shadow to wait only allows its enemies the chance to go stronger. They have achieved what they set out to achieve, and now its time to pounce on that weakness.

 

And why Tar Valon? Because it makes sense. Tar Valon is currently in the weakest position its been in in 3000 years. In one blow you have the chance to wipe out thousands of channelers, get your hands on angreal, sa'angreal and ter'angreal, and destroy the city thats held to have been the greatest stronghold of the light since the Breaking of the World. With that one blow you would weaken your enemies resolve dramatically

 

Aside from which this is the last book. Things have to start happening at a much greater pace, and this fits into the flow of that. You start the book with Lan seeing the Trollocs invade, Egwene witnessening the Seanchan invade, Mat approaching Ghenjei, and Rand approaching the borderlanders. Aviendha hears of another Trolloc army that Rhuarc is moving to stop, and maybe has some confronatation with Graendal.

 

Next step Egwene is in the city, having fought to a standstill and planning whats next, she may have brought in Elayne, Lan arrives bringing word of the Trolloc hordes at his heels. Mat having saved Moiraine is leaving the Tower of Ghenjei. Rand having dealt with whatever threat lays in the borderlanders (thirteen blacks, demandred--whatever it is thats going to hurt him and see Bashere dead), goes to his meeting with Tuon. A Trolloc assault out of the Ways strikes Amadecia.

 

Next, the Trollocs threaten to overrun the Aes Sedai, two bridge gates have fallen, and the foothold destroyed. Tuon arrives with Rand, leads the Seanchan against the Trolloc assault, which is broken. The Aes Sedai rally and the shadowspawn are driven out.

 

We are now halfway through the book. Unification of the Light is complete, and they sit ready to pursue Tarmon Gai'don. Also, the pace is raised and the threat from the shadow is raised which are both things RJ needs to do before the Last Battle begins in earnest.

 

wouldn't it be likely that Messana would have similar designs on Tar Valon and would want to claim it, intact, as her own base of power. She should certainly be able to obtain the DO's endorcement on this because with Tar Valon being such a fortified fortress think what an asset to the Shadow it could be during TG. Moreover, Messana has seen alot of success in her plans to bring down the tower from within considering that the Tower itself is divided and within the tower the Ajahs are all but divided against one another. So untimalty it will be the Seanchan who will inadvertantly undermine Messana's plans.

 

Certainly, in fact i agree with that in full. But the Seanchan assault will undermine her plans... hell, she may even be leashed if she doesn't move quickly enough. Especially if she is in Tel'aran'rhiod at the time, and doesn't realise.

 

The point is those tactics were in large part to prepare for Tarmon Gai'don, to weaken and devide the light, and to turn what strength the light has against them. But now we are at Tarmon Gai'don. Aran'gar and semirhage have been displaced. The most powerful forces in the world are firmly in the hands of people working for the light, people who are moving to unify. Given that the attack must happen soon in any case, waiting seems foolish.

 

Here is a basic synopsis of how I see the Seanchan vs White Tower battle going. During their association with Mat some of the Deathwatch Guard help themselves to some of Aludra's dragons or to their blueprints. These dragons are taken back to Seanchan territory where they are studied and mass produced. These dragons are then empolyed in the seige of Tar Valon. The Salidar AS who are camped nearby do not stand by and allow TV to be destroyed but the are quickly subdued by damane and forced to retreat. Garath Bryne bings his amry to their aid but will only set up a perimiter to defend the Salidar AS and refuses to directly aid the Tower because he is sworn to Egwene and aiding her enemies would be equal to treason.

 

Why would they bother to destroy the walls when the attack is coming from the air? Events in KoD prove this.

 

I don't believe Tuon got her hands on dragons either. Nor the deathwatch guards.

 

This will cause all kinds of disaray within the tower. Elaida will be unable to rally the Ajahs around her and through one of her typical foolhardy actions will get herself captured and collared (now won't that be a satisfying scene?).

 

I agree. Though not in the methodology. I believe that during the dinner with Egwene, Egwene will make her look a fool, and she will snap. She will have Egwene thrown in a dungeon. And will go ranting and raving, and most probably getting drunk. When the Seanchan arrive she will falter or freeze up, and get collared as the move lower through the Tower. Possibly she will be passed out, and Tarna or Meidani will try to wake her when they hear the Seanchan landing. They will fail, or leave her when they cant get her to act or react, bringing news of her fall to the lower levels.

 

Moreover, it will be revealed that just prior to the attack Pervera's group had obtained enough evidence to bust Alverian. Alvi will promptly be arrested and with a little "persuation" will begin revealing all sorts of names. Some Black Ajah will be captured and stilled while others will flee only to appear later serving the Shadow in other capasities during TG.

 

I dont see RJ playing this part all that smoothly either. I think the reason he had Alviarin figure it out was to set up a confrontation. A battle that will leave neither victorious, and will force the Black to flee.

 

A few nights following the attack Egwene will be alone the the Amyrlin's quarters when out the the cornor of her eye she detects a stream of balefire which she barly dodges. She looks to find that the attacker is the very AS who first declared for her. This AS will turn out to be the long sought after secret identity of Messana, who initally aided Egwene because the Seanchan posed a severe threat to her base of power, but now with them out of the way Egwene must go. This will lead to one the the climatic one one battles, Messana vs. Egwene, which will ultimatly end with a rather toasty Messana. Egwene will then decide it is time to mobilize the AS on the offensive against the Shadow where they will remain for the remainder of TG.

 

This i dont see either. Killing Egwene at that stage would be a pointless risk for Mesaana. It's also too blunt.

 

Whilst the scenario you suggest would work, my biggest issue would be with how it plays in. For one thing the Aes Sedai need to have their confidence shaken. They need to lose their identification with the Tower, and they need to face total defeat, at least for a moment. It serves both the purpose of character growth for the Aes Sedai, sets up for Tarmon Gai'don, and rises the overall pace and threat of the story.

 

Another problem is how the seanchan army could reach Tar Valon without being spotted so that some word could reach the White Tower...My theory is that the Seanchan will soon learn how to Travel and with that, without all the restriction of shadowspawn concerning gateways, they will be able to tear the Tower apart from inside of its walls.

But how will the Seanchan learn that? There are several possibilities and it's the more practical way to carry on a smooth conquest of the City.

 

Again though, evidence in KoD suggests to'raken which can land a force of large enough size to conquer the Tower, on the Tower, in side of a week. Traveling isn't really nessasary.

 

The seanchan are flying to Tar Valon via Raken and To'Raken. I don't think that they will find a way to travel at any point in the series. And how to get there unnoticed? There are places on the map that they can go unnoticed, such as the Caralain Grass lands... a place which is very simple to reach through the Almoth Plain.

 

Agrred. I actually believe the Seanchan have a land based force moving on Tar Valon, which has been moving for sometime and setting up supply dumps for the to'raken force which moves much faster. My guess the plan is to have the to'raken force consolidate the Tower, and hold for the land force (which wont arrive until the routing of the Trollocs) to come in and crush the Aes Sedai, facing a powerful in the heart of their city that they cannot contain, and a siege from outside, the city would have fallen.

 

Not that it will work out like that, but you get the idea.

 

They would need a LOT of to'raken to transport easily the numbers of soldiers, damane & sul'dam needed to carry on the siege of Tar Valon...and even more important it would be difficult for them to pass the walls without Travel, to'raken are easily spotted and targeted and one hit to them and they lose all of the people on it...

 

There are 1000 to'raken with the return, each capable of carrying 12 men. That means they can land a force of 12,000 on the Tower Roof completely undetected.Put 3000 damane in that force, which i suspect they will, though it could be more, as well as 6000 thousand soldiers, and they have the strength to hold the Tower. To'raken can also cross 100 miles in a day flying at twice the speed of a galloping horse. They can land that force inside of a week after they left, and based on what we see in KoD, they left maybe 3 or 4 prior to Perrin's attack on the Shaido, which would put them on the Tower roof roughly two and a half weeks after the Cleansing. Which would be around the day Egwene meets with Elaida for dinner.

 

The Caralain Grass path means crossing the Andoran border if they proceed by foot, yes there would be no problem if they use to'raken but so far they haven't shown so many of them; when they plan to attack Illian they carry on a plan based on infantry as we learn from the reports of many carts and wagons.

Maybe they really have more to'raken than we are aware of.

 

They have a little over a thousand, and perhaps twice as many raken.

 

And no, they wouldn't need to pass through Andor, if they loop up through Almoth they can pass far to the north of New Braem, essentially bypassing any inhabited land.

 

Am I the only one that remembers in book 4 or 5 when a party is going through the ways (can't remember who is in it) and they see the shadow spawn all contorted in front of one of the bridges? Loial makes a comment saying "that's the bridge to TV. They must've put wards on it"

 

Thats one of the bridges. Liandrin shows the Shadow is aware of another.

 

Firstly, to move enough to make an effective attack without being discovered would draw MS like a fly to honey and they would all die.

 

Which i did address. In KoD we witness 100,000 Trollocs making it through the Ways intact. This is the latest development in a successive change that Machin Shin has undergone in the past year, since encountering Fain. We have seen it take commands, show fear, allow someone to live, wait at waygates for specific people. Not to mention the fact that we just saw the source of its creation destroyed.

 

For the Forsaken to be willing to risk the attempt is not something i see as being especially unrealistic.

 

Secondly, the path to TV is warded against shadow spawn, and will kill any that try to get through

 

The one path we saw was. Beside the dak has channelers with it, and Sammael proves that any ward can be unspun. Besides, that warding killed maybe 20 Trollocs, and wasted itself in the doing. Easy lost easy gained.

[RobertAlexWillis]

A couple of points.

 

First, Luckers is entirely right about the Ways, Machin Shin has undergone some kind of change. We don't know the details, but the old rules no longer seem to apply in the same way. My problem with the Ways is the exit strategy (which I'm sure he understands).

 

However, Luckers, I do think that you are underestimating the defensibility of Tar Valon, and overestimating the capabilities of the Black Ajah. It is unlikely, in my view, that Demandred makes the same underestimation of the physical city, but he may ... may ... agree with your overestimation of the Black Ajah.

 

You did make an interesting comment that I'd like to address though ...

 

Certainly the Dark One seems to need the light destroyed. If not why would the shadow bother? With the War of the Shadow, or Tarmon Gai'don, or indeed any of the events between? Their is an immediacy to their actions that suggests the need for victory... or war.

 

We don't know what the Shadow's specific objectives were, in any of those actions. At the beginning of the War of the Power, according to the BWB (which is, admittedly, fallible by design) the start of the War was precipitated by some kind of attemp to free the Dark One completely. But what did they try to do? What exactly is the mechanism that allows the Dark One to fully enter (or destroy) the Pattern? How does military action support that ultimate objective?

 

I have speculated elsewhere that the total number of living, sentient beings has to be reduced to a certain level, since those lives are the "threads" of the Pattern. Another name for Shai'tan is "Lord of the Grave" ... he has demonstrated considerable control over dead persons (Kari al'Thor, multiple transmigrations). There is also the strange phenomenon of population decline in Randland, attributed to the Dark One's influence.

 

If that is the case, then the Shadow's overall military goals change. Successfully acquiring territory becomes secondary to inflicting lots of carnage. There is some support for this in the way the War of the Power was fought and the Dark One's choice of counterstroke.

 

During the War of the Power, the Forsaken's atrocities were overboard, to say the least. They resulted not in the acquisition of useable, productive political entities, but in the virtual depopulation of entire swathes of land. They didn't conquer, so much as simply destroy. The Dark One's counterstroke resulted in the same sort of effect, on a much larger scale. Rather than making saidin unusable, or immediately deadly, his counterstroke created chaos and destruction that continued and even increased in his absence. We don't know, of course, if he chose what kind of effect his counterstroke would have, but if he could, then generalized destruction, rather than conquering, is his goal.

 

Moridin, as the Dark One's closest and most trusted servant, is openly ... nihilistic doesn't quite cover it, but its close. For that reason, I don't think that Shai'tan or Moridin are concerned with actually taking Tar Valon, so much as they are concerned with:

 

1) Killing alot of people.

 

2) Keeping the Aes Sedai from being available to help Rand.

 

Not necessarily in that order.

 

The person whose assessment I wouldn't understand here is Demandred. Tactically, the best way to deal with the Aes Sedai is to somehow draw them OUT of Tar Valon. The physical city gives them too many advantages, and there are plenty of other targets he can attack that would either draw them out or isolate them. I can only conclude that if he is in charge of an attack on Tar Valon, it is becuase:

 

1) He was ordered to do it, and is making the best of a bad situation (since the big dogs care more about casualties than conquering).

 

or

 

2) He is getting exaggerated information from Mesaana, which makes Tar Valon look alot weaker than it actually is, and the Black Ajah more capable than it is.

[Leopoled Boothe]

Why would they bother to destroy the walls when the attack is coming from the air? Events in KoD prove this.

 

That's a good point but still at some point for the sake of dramatic effect those walls need to come crashing down. I admit that the Seanchan use of dragons is a bit of a stretch, but since the walls are probably specially fortified against anything that already exists in the world dragons, which are new, seem like a prime candidate for the job.

 

Quote:

Moreover, it will be revealed that just prior to the attack Pervera's group had obtained enough evidence to bust Alverian. Alvi will promptly be arrested and with a little "persuation" will begin revealing all sorts of names. Some Black Ajah will be captured and stilled while others will flee only to appear later serving the Shadow in other capasities during TG.

 

 

 

I dont see RJ playing this part all that smoothly either. I think the reason he had Alviarin figure it out was to set up a confrontation. A battle that will leave neither victorious, and will force the Black to flee.

 

Right, point taken. Please understand that I was offerning a very skeletal synopsis of these events as I haven't figured out all the details (nor would I wish to do that much typing). I think the term "promptly arrested" wasn't the best I could have used. Certainly, I do think that Alvi's arrest will be preceeded by a heavy conflict betwee Pevara's group and Alvi along with some other BA. Moreover, I certainly do not think that Alvi's part in the story will be finished at this point. Given her sort of Junior Chosen status I think she will escape and have a bigger part to play in TG.

 

This i dont see either. Killing Egwene at that stage would be a pointless risk for Mesaana. It's also too blunt.

 

Risky and blunt yes, but I see this as a last ditch act of desperation on Mesaana's part. If she were to flee the tower it would make her failure complete. She has already been punished once by Shadar Haran and she knows that if she abandons her mission in complete failure she will get more of the same and worse (Given the choice I think she would probably perfer being toasted by Egwene). I would think her plan would be too bump off Egwene and use the cloak of shadows to replace her and take control of the tower that way. (Of couse this would beg the question of why she didn't just do that to Elaida or even Suian. I'm not sure exactly how long she's been in the tower.) Given that Mesaana has played a relativly small role in the story and all of that has concerned her attempt to subdue the White Tower this will effectivly bring her storyline to a close and will be the approprate point at which to kill her off.

[Wanderer]

Well, about the channeler number matter; I was thinking of the Trollocs Wars, when the Shadow had many channelers at least enough to engage a fair battle againt the forces of the Light and in that time the White Tower population was greater then today. Aes Sedai were raising accepted as fast as they could and still had trouble facing trollocs and that war was only a diversion to disrupt the ten nation rather then to conquer them; that was Ishamael's plan, now there is much more at stake, so I don't see Moridin not gathering more dreadlords than that time.

 

Now they have at least the same number of the Trollocs Wars if not more.

[Luckers]

First, Luckers is entirely right about the Ways, Machin Shin has undergone some kind of change. We don't know the details, but the old rules no longer seem to apply in the same way. My problem with the Ways is the exit strategy (which I'm sure he understands).

 

Lol. Indeed i do. But for total containment to occur, there must be defense set up prior to their attempt to exit the Ways. Now, i concede this is likely, but i feel that Alviarin, the Black or Joe Random Darkfriend will intervene. Distracted in this manner, they will manage to contain the Trolloc incursion, but not manage to hold the Waygate completely.

 

However, Luckers, I do think that you are underestimating the defensibility of Tar Valon, and overestimating the capabilities of the Black Ajah. It is unlikely, in my view, that Demandred makes the same underestimation of the physical city, but he may ... may ... agree with your overestimation of the Black Ajah.

 

Lets be clear in that i dont reguard the Black Ajah as super-beings, or even all that effective. But sabotuers without the ability to channel have been massive assets to besiegers... those with the ability...?

 

And the fact is, too, that we have seen a lesser number of channelers contain the assault of a greater number of channelers for a time. A time is all that is needed. If left to pure military, the Shadowspawn outnumber the Light here, and have insurgents within the city.

 

You did make an interesting comment that I'd like to address though ...

 

Quote:

Certainly the Dark One seems to need the light destroyed. If not why would the shadow bother? With the War of the Shadow, or Tarmon Gai'don, or indeed any of the events between? Their is an immediacy to their actions that suggests the need for victory... or war.

 

 

 

We don't know what the Shadow's specific objectives were, in any of those actions. At the beginning of the War of the Power, according to the BWB (which is, admittedly, fallible by design) the start of the War was precipitated by some kind of attemp to free the Dark One completely. But what did they try to do? What exactly is the mechanism that allows the Dark One to fully enter (or destroy) the Pattern? How does military action support that ultimate objective?

 

Well, amongst other things we do know that that attempt failed, seemingly by the efforts of the Light to stop it. After which the Shadows attention was directed singularily at destroying the light. The could have merely directed an effort at stopping the light from interfering, they did not. By the efforts of over three thousand years, we can conclude that the destruction of the light is nessasary for the Shadow.

 

I have speculated elsewhere that the total number of living, sentient beings has to be reduced to a certain level, since those lives are the "threads" of the Pattern. Another name for Shai'tan is "Lord of the Grave" ... he has demonstrated considerable control over dead persons (Kari al'Thor, multiple transmigrations). There is also the strange phenomenon of population decline in Randland, attributed to the Dark One's influence.

 

And i have commented that my issue with this is that population decrease has been noted in Randland only. In the Waste we have evidence of new holds being formed recently, to accomidate population growth. In Seanchan overpopulation was such an issue that hundreds of thousands sought the Return as a method of gaining land. You cannot suggest that such a migration would have occured if overpopulation was not an issue, for all the historical and cultural reasons they may have of contacting the mainland.

 

And if depletion of Randlan population is what is needed to weaken a specific part of the pattern, why did Ishamael facilitate the Return, bringing over a million people back to the mainland.

 

If that is the case, then the Shadow's overall military goals change. Successfully acquiring territory becomes secondary to inflicting lots of carnage. There is some support for this in the way the War of the Power was fought and the Dark One's choice of counterstroke.

 

Yet we have seen the Forsaken actively avoid active fighting between different groups in favour of ongoing political strife. And the counter-stroke was an act of opportunity. And the War of Shadow? The Shadow was on the verge of winning... i see that as only support that they saught victory.

 

During the War of the Power, the Forsaken's atrocities were overboard, to say the least. They resulted not in the acquisition of useable, productive political entities, but in the virtual depopulation of entire swathes of land. They didn't conquer, so much as simply destroy. The Dark One's counterstroke resulted in the same sort of effect, on a much larger scale. Rather than making saidin unusable, or immediately deadly, his counterstroke created chaos and destruction that continued and even increased in his absence. We don't know, of course, if he chose what kind of effect his counterstroke would have, but if he could, then generalized destruction, rather than conquering, is his goal.

 

All of which Rand himself links to individual Forsaken inclinations. And after all these men and women joined the shadow for just that purpose--to gain power to enact their inclinations. Mesaana created the schools, Asmodean destroyed those that slighted him, Aginor played the mad scientist... all displayed egomaniacle traits that stemmed from their very human bases.

 

And the counterstroke... it signifies enmity, little more. We do not know that he chose madness... we do not know if he could have made it worse. We do not know how a being caught like that could react. By description--even of those in the Shadow, the event was opportune... the action opened Saidin to the Dark One touching it, and he touched it, leaving the taint of his being. It wasn't a weapon... it was exposure.

 

Moridin, as the Dark One's closest and most trusted servant, is openly ... nihilistic doesn't quite cover it, but its close. For that reason, I don't think that Shai'tan or Moridin are concerned with actually taking Tar Valon, so much as they are concerned with:

 

1) Killing alot of people.

 

2) Keeping the Aes Sedai from being available to help Rand.

 

This i dont entirely disagree with. I don't entirely agree with it either. The Aes Sedai are in a position of great weakness, their city invaded, insurgents amongst them, a waygate leading into them... a good way of keeping the Aes Sedai from aiding Rand is to kill them all. It also fits with your point 1. Moreover, it does more. News that the White Tower was destroyed by the Shadow would shatter the resolve of all born in Randland. It might very well decide battles.

 

Then there is the fact that tactically it would have removed one of the three great enemies (the other being Rand and the Seanchan) before they can ally themselves.

 

Additionally there is the fact that Moridin's nihilism is not shared by the other Forsaken, something he has done a great deal to hide from them. Do you think they would not question him if he did not act against Tar Valon given the extreme tactical advantage they face. As targets go it makes massive sense as the opening for Tarmon Gai'don. Remember Moridin has much to worry about if the Forsaken learn that they are not going to gain imortality and power. The War of the Power proves this.

 

So even if your position is correct the assault and victory at Tar Valon is favourable.

 

The person whose assessment I wouldn't understand here is Demandred. Tactically, the best way to deal with the Aes Sedai is to somehow draw them OUT of Tar Valon. The physical city gives them too many advantages, and there are plenty of other targets he can attack that would either draw them out or isolate them. I can only conclude that if he is in charge of an attack on Tar Valon, it is becuase:

 

 

I disagree. I think that within the confines of the city the channelers can be seperated, and contained. I think that it provides for a chance to destroy the Aes Sedai completely. Within a city the effect of sabotuers is increased dramatically because it can be concealed, they can disapear and appear because they have shadows to hide in. I think the Waygate presents an option that would be missing in an open confrontation. Additionally its situational. For the Shadow to lure the Aes Sedai out of the city would presume stupidity. The Aes Sedai would not attack an army elsewhere unless the conditions were favourable.

 

Seriously, it would grant them time to approach others, time to remove the Seanchan threat, time to plan....

 

Tell me, how would the Shadow lure the Aes Sedai into an attack, stopping them from liasing with Rand? What scenario would allow for Bryne and Egwene to attack a numerically superior force outside the city? Or even be in a position to be attacked? Its like saying the Shadow would be smarter to wait for the Aes Sedai to come out of the city, take sleeping pills, and lie down undefended. Its simply unfeasible.Seriously... what are these other targets? Say he attacks... what... Andor? Anywhere? Do you really see Egwene rushing off thoughtlessly to attack a superior force... or Bryne letting her?

 

Any action out of the city would require the situation within the city to have been solved, or at the very least that the action be well planned and prepared for by the Aes Sedai. Both cases do not serve Shadow interests.

 

2) He is getting exaggerated information from Mesaana, which makes Tar Valon look alot weaker than it actually is, and the Black Ajah more capable than it is.

 

Tar Valon is absolutely weak. And i say that as someone who acknowledges the inneffectiveness of the Black Ajah. Again. Demandred has superior numbers by at best 3 to 1, and by at worst 10 to 1. He has channelers to counter channelers, and we know that can be effective. He has the Waygate presenting a way into the city without a wall. He has thousands of darkfriends within the city to work as sabotuers. Including channelers.

 

Seriously, it is a besieging generals wet dream. Can you concoct a situation wherein the attacking general is in a better position? Do you really contend that just because the gates do not lie open and the the enemy is armed that Demandred would give it up as hopeless? He is a general, which means war. War involves battle. Battle implies enemy resistance. But seriously, the situation could not be better stacked for Demandred... i mean, can you think of a way it could be?

 

That's a good point but still at some point for the sake of dramatic effect those walls need to come crashing down. I admit that the Seanchan use of dragons is a bit of a stretch, but since the walls are probably specially fortified against anything that already exists in the world dragons, which are new, seem like a prime candidate for the job.

 

I get that, sorry i wasn't trying to be dismisive. I actually just posted a post on the plot of a memory of light, in which i covered the use of dragons for the first large scale time. Specifically i think Mat will use them against the Trollocs that attack through the Waygate. But thats another topic.

 

Right, point taken. Please understand that I was offerning a very skeletal synopsis of these events as I haven't figured out all the details (nor would I wish to do that much typing). I think the term "promptly arrested" wasn't the best I could have used. Certainly, I do think that Alvi's arrest will be preceeded by a heavy conflict betwee Pevara's group and Alvi along with some other BA. Moreover, I certainly do not think that Alvi's part in the story will be finished at this point. Given her sort of Junior Chosen status I think she will escape and have a bigger part to play in TG.

 

Yeah, no, i completely get that. And i agree.

 

Risky and blunt yes, but I see this as a last ditch act of desperation on Mesaana's part. If she were to flee the tower it would make her failure complete. She has already been punished once by Shadar Haran and she knows that if she abandons her mission in complete failure she will get more of the same and worse (Given the choice I think she would probably perfer being toasted by Egwene). I would think her plan would be too bump off Egwene and use the cloak of shadows to replace her and take control of the tower that way. (Of couse this would beg the question of why she didn't just do that to Elaida or even Suian. I'm not sure exactly how long she's been in the tower.) Given that Mesaana has played a relativly small role in the story and all of that has concerned her attempt to subdue the White Tower this will effectivly bring her storyline to a close and will be the approprate point at which to kill her off.

 

You see i suspect she will be leashed. But in your situation i see her using her long time at the Tower to work her way into the newly forming circle of power. If she wasn't uncovered, and had a well established persona, why give it up on the chance of killing Egwene, something that would likely be largely ignorable?

[RobertAlexWillis]

Well, amongst other things we do know that that attempt failed, seemingly by the efforts of the Light to stop it. After which the Shadows attention was directed singularily at destroying the light. The could have merely directed an effort at stopping the light from interfering, they did not. By the efforts of over three thousand years, we can conclude that the destruction of the light is nessasary for the Shadow.

 

I guess to understand the context of my speculation here, I think that the initial attempt to free the Dark One was something to do with the "standing flows" which were threaded through the entire culture. I think they were attempting some kind of weave that would have been akin to a simultaneous nuclear meltdown in every population center. Having been foiled in their attempt, they had to fall back on attrition. I know, its very speculative, I just don't see the Dark One's interest in any kind of military objective otherwise. Tar Valon can't be the key as a physical location: it didn't even exist in the War of the Power.

 

And i have commented that my issue with this is that population decrease has been noted in Randland only. In the Waste we have evidence of new holds being formed recently, to accomidate population growth. In Seanchan overpopulation was such an issue that hundreds of thousands sought the Return as a method of gaining land. You cannot suggest that such a migration would have occured if overpopulation was not an issue, for all the historical and cultural reasons they may have of contacting the mainland.

 

I think the phenomenon's limitation to Randland has to do with the proximity to Shayol Ghul. The Dark One was influencing where he could, even though its the total number that matters. So, the Return wouldn't affect the total number, except to lower it through war and make it easier to destabilize Seanchan proper. Alot of people are dying in Seanchan right now.

 

 

The Shadow was on the verge of winning... i see that as only support that they saught victory.

 

Sammael and Demandred and Be'lal and the others were obviously thinking in terms of a military victory. But what was the Dark One's objective? If he planned to destroy the world, why would he care if it was conquered before he destroyed it? All his instructions have been to spread chaos. Successful conquest imposes a new form of order.

 

And the counterstroke... it signifies enmity, little more.

 

Thats an assumption with no more basis than mine ... :D We don't know what the Dark One was thinking.

 

Do you think they would not question him if he did not act against Tar Valon given the extreme tactical advantage they face.

 

I don't personally think Moridin is trying to stay popular ... he can just say "Shai'tan commands".

 

So even if your position is correct the assault and victory at Tar Valon is favourable.

 

Oh I'm not disputing that a victory for the Shadow at Tar Valon would be a big victory for the Shadow.

 

Seriously, it is a besieging generals wet dream.

 

True. But what you're proposing isn't a siege, its an assault. Big, big difference.

 

If the Shadow lays siege to Tar Valon, that would make sense. Ring them in, isolate them, and devastate the countries around them. Eventually, they'll have to come out and face you on your terms. As to being outnumbered, even 10 to 1, well, Tar Valon as a fortified city is more than strong enough to hold out against those odds, with purely non-channeling defenders. Taking a fortified city by storm is costly. Without a lengthy siege (which was Bryne's plan) that cuts off supplies, fortified positions like that can withstand 15 or 20 to 1 odds. Even granting that Trollocs may be more effective en mass than humans at storming a place, Tar Valon can handle 10 to 1.

[cloglord]

Time to weigh in, I just waded through all 4 preceding pages, and was gratified to find that my major point had not yet been mentioned.

 

 

The tower guard is likely rife with darkfriends. Likely on the same scale that the royal guards in Andor were under Ravhin. You only need to recall Messanna's repeated attempts, through Alviarin, to induce Elaida to increase recruiting. I believe that Captain Chubain to be a DF and that he is currently recruiting darkfriends for the tower guard. It makes sense. We have precedent, we have a clear indication that Messanna has taken an interest in the Guards. We just have to put it together. Once the shadow arrives at Tar Valon the plan was to have the guards defect enmass, and the city would fall. Luckers you're right, it is Demandred's nocturnal emmission of shadowspawn. However, Egwene's presence with an army that could gain entrance to Tar Valon well in advance of any shadowspawn army kind of spoils that plan.

 

Further Luckers, I find your arguments to be entirely sound and logical, assuming that I subscribe to your theories about how the seanchan attack will unfold. I have read your theory here, and in the MoL part Deux thread, and find one major flaw in it. You claim that RJ needs to ramp up the action in the last book, yet the delaying tactics that you predict for Lan would simply take entirely too long. By my estimate, from the maps in the books, it is nearly an equal distance from the tarwins gap Tar Valon as it is from Tarwin's gap to the capital of Kandor. As Robert and I have discussed, we do not feel that such a journey could be accomplished in less than weeks. Further, you predict that Lan will do whatever he can to slow this advance. If we assume that it will take Lan a month to get from world's end to Tarwin's Gap, and another month for him to fight his delaying manuevers all the way back to Tar Valon, you are taking the unpopular view that it will take nearly 2 months to resolve the series to the point that you mark as the midpoint of aMoL. 2 Months more than has been covered in the last few books, yet you plan for RJ to have accomplished 2 months in half a book.

 

Here's an alternate, if not so nearly well atriculated theory. Elaida and co. are captured and leashed. Egwene escapes, (since she's the only one who knows what's going on,) and rallies the aes sedai to the rescue. She arrives on the scene just in time to rescue Elaida as she is being loaded on a raken to be brought before Tuon. Egwene is forced to choose between allowing some anonymous seanchan military commander reach the top for capturing the Amrylin Seat and thereby achieveng her own goal of reunification of the tower, or to attempt to rescue an aes sedai from slavery by the hated seanchan. She choses to let them take Elaida. Once Elaida is out of the picture, Egwene is named Amrylin and sets down to the buisness of reunification. The anonymous seanchan woman recieves a new name, and is raised to the blood. They have reached the top together. Of course this confontation sets the tower directly against the seanchan, and would cause any number of problems between egwene and rand if say he were to make an alliance between himself and the seanchan......