The New Year is coming!!

[Elder_Haman]

3 hours ago, Harldin said:

Do you seriously believe that is all it will take to make WOT successful?, LOTR and GOT are hugely successful because they have drawn huge numbers of people who are not normally inclined to like or dislike Fantasy.

No, no of course not. WoT’s success will ultimately be determined by the quality of the end product. 
 

I’m saying that people who enjoy fantasy shows won’t refuse to watch WoT just because LotR is airing at the same time. (Or is coming out in another month). 
 

People who are inclined to like fantasy will at least check WoT out just because they enjoy the genre. That doesn’t mean they’ll stick with it. 

[Carebear Sedai]

19 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

Amazon's got lot's of shows to release throughout the year.  And they're going to want to be sparing with their Summer releases this year anyway.  Lockdowns are expected to be coming up, social distancing and mask orders lifted.  People aren't gonna be inside watching TV nearly as much, barring lots of extraordinary weather.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them push Carnival Row back a month or so, lead off with that release, followed by WoT and LotR every month and a half or so later, however long it takes to drop the first three episodes at once and weekly drops after that, and dub the whole block, "Prime Fantasy Fall."

 

And there's no sense in the idea that the marketing campaign for the one show would "interfere" with the marketing campaign for the other.  Marketing releases for things in the same market space are synergistic.  Hype magnifies hype.

 

The moment any real news of LotR is released, say a trailer, no media outlet will pay the slightest attention to some WoT series. It would be a recipe for failure to garner WoT any notice. While yes, big IPs can be released concurrently, a relatively unknown fantasy series will get completely overshadowed if marketed in the same cycle as a giant like LotR. 

 

As for Prime content, yes, they have other shows. However, they only have a few titles that made (or have the potential to make) any real news amongst larger media circles and become a part of pop culture. Releasing The Boys/The Expanse/WoT/LotR within a short timeframe is a surefire way to make sure WoT isn't heard of and gets completely overshadowed by IPs already in the public's consciousness. 

 

I'm not sure I buy the summer myth. Witcher is releasing in mid-August and I don't doubt they would wait a month if there was any truth to people having drastically different TV habits. The culture of media consumption has drastically changed. 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Carebear Sedai

[Thrasymachus]

That's assuming they don't intend to have WoT "ride the wave" of hype that's already going to be rising from the LotR series.  Prime doesn't care about how prominent WoT is on some geek web magazine, they care about how prominent Prime is on those kinds of sites, whatever the show.  They fully realize that they're gonna get lots more viewers clicking their app to watch LotR than they ever would for WoT.  But once they've got those viewers for LotR, it's a hell of a lot easier to keep them to watch WoT.  These series aren't competitors, they're complements.  And it's not like there's a genuinely limited amount of marketing space, either on geek sites or Twitter or commercials that LotR will suck them all up.  For one thing, I doubt their marketing budget can accommodate that.  And if I were the one in charge of marketing for the lesser known IP, and I knew that a sister-show very like it in some aspects, that already has a huge following thanks to prior adaptation successes, was going to be coming out around the same time and from the same "network," I'd be doing everything in my power to make sure that my adaptation would be mentioned in the same breath, or as close to as possible, as the more popular show.  Anybody getting excited for the LotR series needs to be made aware, minimally, of the WoT also coming out, if not be hyped for that as well.  And there's no better time to do that than as they're getting hyped for LotR in the first place. 

 

And I'd want to ride that release hype, too.  Either just before, so impatient fans of LotR who can't wait to get their high-fantasy drama fix tune in, and find themselves drawn in to the story, or just after, so viewers still high on a satisfying show looking for more of the same click on the "recommended for you" thumbnail icon for the WoT.  Honestly, just before is better, especially for the first season release, as you get more viewers in the long run.  And if it runs better than LotR, they'll move it to follow. 

 

The last thing I would want is to release opposite the calendar from them.  There's little chance for any kind of marketing synergy that way.  The show would have to be a breakout hit with audiences and critics, to have legs, and be able to survive pressure to cancel it after two seasons, because short, 3-4 season series is already becoming the norm even for breakout hits.  And I think we all know that this is a series that needs 5 seasons at a bare minimum to tell even a shadow of the story found in the books.  Pair it with a stronger sibling, put it out just before LotR so it can gobble up some of those viewers who otherwise might not ever care about it, and it can be an adequate show, and still survive, particularly if they find their legs in the second season.

[Elder_Haman]

If I were in charge, I would want to get WoT on screens as soon as it is feasible - specifically to make certain LotR succeeds. Call it a dry run, if you will. Here's my reasoning:

 

Lord of the Rings is the crown jewel of fantasy properties. But the writers are in uncharted waters. The original trilogy (and the Hobbit) were far more well known than Tolkein's later published works. The name "Lord of the Rings" guarantees that people will tune in and watch, but if the show bombs you've killed the Golden Goose.

 

By releasing WoT as far ahead of LotR as possible, you get valuable data. What's working with audiences? What are the audiences complaining about? Much of this is show specific, but it's the kind of thing studio executives like (Hollywood is a copycat business). 

 

Additionally, if WoT is good, it builds confidence in the viewers that Amazon can handle a big fantasy product. That, in turn, will generate bigger and better buzz about LotR. 

 

Obviously, you can't push it out before its ready. That would be a huge mistake. But I see absolutely no sense in holding WoT back once it is ready. 

 

 

[Carebear Sedai]

That's a good point. Prime is still quite young and they may use WoT as a test show. However, I don't think they have so little value in the IP. To them it's very much a show that could be a huge hit so I do think they'll time it well. 

 

They will also have to think of season two, which we can hope has already been greenlit unofficially. If they have more or less finished season 1 then there's no sense in waiting around. I'm hopeful that whatever they have to finish in April isn't very much and the expensive resumption of the production is rather for filming of season two.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

That's assuming they don't intend to have WoT "ride the wave" of hype that's already going to be rising from the LotR series.  Prime doesn't care about how prominent WoT is on some geek web magazine, they care about how prominent Prime is on those kinds of sites, whatever the show.  They fully realize that they're gonna get lots more viewers clicking their app to watch LotR than they ever would for WoT.  But once they've got those viewers for LotR, it's a hell of a lot easier to keep them to watch WoT. 

 

If WoT was some cheaply made show, yes, I'd agree. But no one spends 100 million a series that's not supposed to be making waves. If WoT goes unnoticed Amazon gains absolutely nothing (and loses a ton of cash). Meanwhile, it's through shows like The Expanse and The Boys that Amazon Prime has even become a conversation point. 

Edited January 9, 2021 by Carebear Sedai

[Thrasymachus]

$100 million is not as much as it used to be.  And it's not nearly enough to signal outsized promotional efforts or internal confidence in the show.  They spent that much on The Tick, and on Woody Allen's Crisis in Six Scenes.  They've got a billion dollars budgeted for LotR's guaranteed 5 seasons, twice as much per season as WoT.

 

And if you think WoT's popularity and branding is enough to stand it up for it's debut, all on its own, I've got a bridge to sell you.  We're a niche within a niche.  @WoTonPrime has 57.2 thousand followers.  @LotRonPrime has 184.3 thousand followers, more than three times as many.  While The Boys, a show that's already gone viral, has 208.1 thousand.

 

Besides, there's an example of a high-fantasy drama based on a relatively unknown IP that was recently released in the Summer to stand on its own: Carnival Row.  And while there were some people who really liked it, overall it released to mixed reactions from fans and critics, there was for a time a live question to whether it would be renewed for a season 2.  Oh, and it's also estimated to have cost at least $100 million for its first season.  They spent an estimated 60 million Euros on shooting alone in Prague.  As far as lessons to be learned, Carnival Row was, and remains thus far, far closer to the cautionary tale of Shannara than the blockbuster inspiration of GoT. 

 

Executives tend to learn their lessons, and they tend to hedge their bets.  Release WoT as a standalone like Carnival Row, and it flops, or just flounders a bit like Carnival Row has done, and it's an expensive embarrassment that puts pressure on the studio  and the possibilities for an expensive show to continue.  Release it next to a show where they're already gonna be throwing everything and the kitchen sink at it to ensure its success, where it can piggyback an audience from, and it'll be much less likely to flop, if it does anyway it can be quietly dropped and nobody will remember or care about it in a year, and if it just flounders a bit, like Carnival Row did, there'll be a lot less pressure or questions about whether or if the show should or will continue.