Eqwene's Seanchan woman dream

[Luckers]

But suppose now they have landed, been fighting for lets say 24 hours, taken a defendable portion of the tower and killed or collared 2/3 of the present Aes Sedai and novices.

What follows next?

 

One, i dont see the novices being leashed, i see them escaping.

 

Two, Egwenes counter-attack will take place before tiredness becomes an issue. It will be bloody, and it will be short, and it will result in neither side gaining advantage, after which the situation will fall to skirmashes with both sides knowing that they do not have the strength to win. The reality of mutual extinction, with the equally strong reality of no common ground will result in a continuing stalemate.

 

 

 

The damane that have been fighting for 24 hours won't really have much fighting strength left. I even doubt they can last 24 hours. So the exhausted seanchan are sitting there, surrounded by 50.000 experienced soldiers and at least some 50 AS.

What's the seanchan plan now?

An airborn evacuation? A second airborn attack wave?

The guards won't get surprised a second time.

Don't overrate the strength of the raken either.

 

Umm... those 50,000 are actually 100,000. And none of them are especially experienced, barring the few left overs from the Aiel War. Not that that is an issue, as KoD shows us, 50 channelers equals 100,000 soldiers (actually, trollocs, which by their phsyicality are far more dangerous then soldiers).

 

So. 2,000 damane to respond to whatever the 1,000 (majority untrained) Aes Sedai throw. 50 to deal with their troops. Or a hundred. Or five hundred. Even so it leaves room for rotations.

 

Secondly, again, Seanchan strength is such that long term holding of the tower is not an issue. They have the numbers, channeler-wise, to sustain a force of rested channelers round the clock, and still outnumber the Aes Sedai.

 

The point I was trying to make is that the WT assault lacks a tactical plan.

If the strategic goal is to decapitate the serpent, then how will they pull this off and come out ahead?

 

From a Seanchan standpoint the attack makes perfect tactical sense. Remembering that they didn't count on the rebels it places a much stronger force within the heart of a culturally significant enemy, with absolute surprise and no loss.

 

They leash all Aes sedai before the outcry is even raised, and if a couple escapes, so what. Certainly not enough to challange Seanchan hold of the Tower, even if all two hundred escaped. They hold the tower--easily, for they are significantly stronger. Again, as KoD shows, each 50 equals 100,000.

 

Within three weeks they have reinforcements from the air. Moreover based on tDR, within three weeks they also could have land based reinforcements from Tarabon.

 

They then have an established, powerful force holding the heart of the city, and a powerful external force outside.

 

Yes, the presence of the Rebels throws a spanner in the works, which they had no way of predicting. Hence they acted on the plan.

 

Even with the rebels though, losing isn't inevitable.

[Phiotr AlManera]

I don't know, you didn't really convince me Luckers.

 

I just don't see 5.000 to 10.000 seanchan holding the tower. I don't know wether the damane are capable defencive forces (I can't remember them ever using shields f.e.), it's a big place, they don't know it, one arrow is sufficient to kill,...

An attack would be massively disruptive, I agree, but that's hardly a long or even middle-long tactical advantage.

Remembering that they didn't count on the rebels

I don't agree with this assumption. They must have heard rumours and it's fair to assume they send in spies or scouts. They've already got enough Randlandish allies for this too. By the time of KoD they should suspect something.

Moreover based on tDR, within three weeks they also could have land based reinforcements from Tarabon.

That would make a lot of sense.

[Guest Barmacral]

They did use a shield on Elayne during the fight at the Kins farm / Andor when the Gateway collapsed into a minature Nuke.

[Pevin]

As I've said in other threads discussing the same topic, I also think attacking the White Tower doesn't make good tactical sense for the Seanchan at this point. Instead of repeating my reasons, though, I'm just going to throw out two new comments.

 

I don't think it will be as easy as some people think for the Seanchan to sneak in. Both the rebels and the tower Aes Sedai should be holding quite a vigilant guard. It seems to me that 1,000 to'raken would have a hard time sneaking past two armies that are expecting battle.

 

 

KoD shows us' date=' 50 channelers equals 100,000 soldiers [/quote']

 

I don't think comparing this situation to what happened with Rand in KoD are very good for three reasons. 1)The attacking force is not going to be charging through an open field. 2)I think Rand's weaves (that the others immediately imitated) were far more destructive than anything we've seen the Seanchan use. 3)The trollocs did not have any channelers to help defend against the One Power attacks.

 

Finally, I have a question for Luckers--why do you say with such confidence that the attack will happen? I'll admit that we have heard the desire to attack the tower and seen evidence of an assault being planned and (most likely) prepared for, but that does not meen it is or will be carried out for a certainty. Have I missed something in the books that actually shows or says it is happening?

[algspkr]

As I've said in other threads discussing the same topic' date=' I also think attacking the White Tower doesn't make good tactical sense for the Seanchan at this point. Instead of repeating my reasons, though, I'm just going to throw out two new comments.

[/quote']

The big thing that seems to have instigated to Seanchan push for the Tower was Elayne's accident at the Kin's farm in PoD. The Seanchan see that as something like a nuke. They are going all out to deny its use to an enemy and gain it for themselves. They have always planned to take down the White Tower but that event made it urgent.

I don't think it will be as easy as some people think for the Seanchan to sneak in. Both the rebels and the tower Aes Sedai should be holding quite a vigilant guard. It seems to me that 1,000 to'raken would have a hard time sneaking past two armies that are expecting battle.

They are probably planning to come in at night, and at that time especially those on watch will be paying very close attention to the river, flying is something for birds to do in their opinion.

KoD shows us' date=' 50 channelers equals 100,000 soldiers [/quote']

 

I don't think comparing this situation to what happened with Rand in KoD are very good for three reasons. 1)The attacking force is not going to be charging through an open field. 2)I think Rand's weaves (that the others immediately imitated) were far more destructive than anything we've seen the Seanchan use. 3)The trollocs did not have any channelers to help defend against the One Power attacks.

I would have to agree, but how evenly the numbers will line us is unclear.

Finally, I have a question for Luckers--why do you say with such confidence that the attack will happen? I'll admit that we have heard the desire to attack the tower and seen evidence of an assault being planned and (most likely) prepared for, but that does not meen it is or will be carried out for a certainty. Have I missed something in the books that actually shows or says it is happening?

I'm not Luckers, but this is my answer to that question:

 

CoT - Chapter A Tale of a Doll - Fyruk Karde (sorry about the spelling) has a map of Tar Valon out and the seeker says something like: "You are part of that plan"

 

CoT (don't know the chapter) Egwene dreams of a Seanchan attack on the Tower. The attack will shake AS to their core; that is used as evidence for the attack being at least partly successful, but another interpratation is that they will finaly realize that they are not infalable.

 

KoD - Prologue - Suroth orders lots of raken to Tarabon and the banner general who is also high blood with her at the time (sorry don't remember his name) says he will raise no objections because she is taking no to'raken as "that plan must go forward."

 

Not much evidence, but it is prety solid.

[Luckers]

I don't know, you didn't really convince me Luckers.

 

Fair enough. I hope you dont think i am trying to bludgoon you into agreeing. I know i can unintentionally sound like i am.

 

I just don't see 5.000 to 10.000 seanchan holding the tower. I don't know wether the damane are capable defencive forces (I can't remember them ever using shields f.e.), it's a big place, they don't know it, one arrow is sufficient to kill,...

An attack would be massively disruptive, I agree, but that's hardly a long or even middle-long tactical advantage.

 

Ok, lets take a look of the nature of that defence. Assuming, for arguments sake, the Seanchan take the Tower in that first night. I'm not suggesting the Aes Sedai don't fight back--the guards this Ajah's have placed at their entrance mean some sort of upcry will be sounded. So we have Aes Sedai stumbling from their beds.

 

They are confused--even disbelieving--but they do fight back. Only the Seanchan are simply too many. With little to no loss of human life, the Seanchan shield and hold all Aes Sedai except for a couple who were pre-warned by the noise and slipped away, fleeing deeper into the Tower. Eventually Egwene leads them to the Rebels, because by then the Seanchan forces are reaching the bottom levels of the tower, and the guards simply are not enough to stop them.

 

Now, working on that assumption--that they took the entire tower in relative surprise--lets have a look at this situation.

 

1. The Tower grounds are walled, the Tower itself affords a position of height and strength. Moreover, the Tower was built to hold 6,000 sisters. That means its not as massive as your suggesting. A force of 12,000 would probably be ideal for manning a defence of it. 15,000 might be better, but 12 can manage it.

 

2. Power. I think your confusing numbers with power. For the sake of argument lets say that every 50 channelers is worth 100,000 soldiers (based on KoD). That means, in terms of power and comparative judgement, the Seanchan have 6,006,000 (between damane/sul'dam pairs, and soldiers, and not concidering the maybe 150 sisters they captured) The Aes Sedai, meanwhile, including the novices, have 2,700,000.

 

I'm not suggesting that channelers and soldiers are so directly comprable, im just trying to give a rough show of the comparative power each force can bring to bear. Where channelers lose out is numbers, they cant be everywhere, but the tower grounds remove that need. The confined space means that it becomes an issue of comparative power, not comparative numbers. The Seanchan have twice the power, hold a position of defensive strength, and can be reinforced within a week.

 

If they were smart, a force marched from Tarabon, out of Almoth, a week before the attack was launched. There is nothing to stop that force from being sent. So, they have forces holding the heart of the city, and re-inforcements within a week to two weeks. The city becomes the nut.

 

2. Even assuming that the Aes Sedai COULD weave gateways with the specific purpose of instigating an attack, and that that didn't come under the oath of creating a weapon for one man to kill another, the Seanchan have the numbers to secure the entire tower.

 

I don't agree with this assumption. They must have heard rumours and it's fair to assume they send in spies or scouts. They've already got enough Randlandish allies for this too. By the time of KoD they should suspect something.

 

The Rebels travelling to the city took place a week before the Seanchan started to gather to'raken. At best the Seanchan may have heard of the disapearing army, as one rumour amongst a thousand.

 

But even if they did know, it doesn't make a difference really. The seanchan would hold the position of defensive power, and could hold out for reinforcements. The Rebels simply dont have the strength to uproot them.

 

And yeah, they know how to weave shields.

 

I don't think it will be as easy as some people think for the Seanchan to sneak in. Both the rebels and the tower Aes Sedai should be holding quite a vigilant guard. It seems to me that 1,000 to'raken would have a hard time sneaking past two armies that are expecting battle.

 

The Tower Aes sedai keep a vigilent guard on the walls, looking for land based attacks. They do not have guards looking to the sky. Moreove i question their vigilence anyway. Even those Aes Sedai that believe Egwene's predictions dont think that an attack on the Tower is really possible.

 

Besides, we are talking about dark skinned gliders flying nearly a mile up in a world were airborned attack is unknown, aside from the occaisional draghkar. At night they would be virtually undetectable. If they were clever they could have even waited for an over-cast night.

 

The final fact is, though, that even if they are seen, it would have been from either the walls, or one of the soldier camps in the rebels. They fly at twice the speed of a galloping horse. By the time the warning reached the Tower, their advance forces would already be reaching the Ajah quarters.

 

I don't think comparing this situation to what happened with Rand in KoD are very good for three reasons. 1)The attacking force is not going to be charging through an open field. 2)I think Rand's weaves (that the others immediately imitated) were far more destructive than anything we've seen the Seanchan use. 3)The trollocs did not have any channelers to help defend against the One Power attacks.

 

1. It was a rough guide to establish some sort of qualitative ideal of the type of power channeling forces can bring to bear.

 

2. I disagree. The seanchan have been using channeling for battle for a thousand years. They know what they are doing, and they are damn good at it. Yes, the flashy age of legends weaves are likely more powerful, but the Seanchan arn't ignorent.

 

3. No, they didn't, which is the only reason the Seanchan position is in any danger at all. If the rebels hadn't been there, they could have sat in the tower and easily repulsed any sort of counter-attack the city had to offer, and when their reinforcements arrived, the city would have fallen with ease.

 

But that does not mean that just because they have channeling enemies their position is untenable. The Aes Sedai have 300 trained channelers, a thousand untrained, and are bound by oaths that WILL present problems in attacking a non-shadowspawn force. And given that the Aes Sedai will be attacking, not defending, it is an issue. The Damane on the other had have 3,000 fully trained channelers.

 

It's not comprable.

 

Finally, I have a question for Luckers--why do you say with such confidence that the attack will happen? I'll admit that we have heard the desire to attack the tower and seen evidence of an assault being planned and (most likely) prepared for, but that does not meen it is or will be carried out for a certainty. Have I missed something in the books that actually shows or says it is happening?

 

We have Egwene's dream, showing the Seanchan attacking the tower. Meanwhile, we have the Seanchan gathering to'raken in KoD for the express purpose of carrying out a plan, that plan is an attack on the Tower.

 

So, since we know the Seanchan WILL attack the Tower. And that the Seanchan have recently gathered a force with the express purpose of attacking the Tower, i think that we can qualitatively state that yes, they will attack the Tower, and that yes, that attack will take the form of a to'raken insurgence.

 

Moreover, there is conciderable evidence in the writing of it.

 

1. Jordan avoided the Aes Sedai until the Seanchan were in position to launch this attack.

 

2. With one book left certain things need to happen. The Seanchan attack will force the reunification of the Aes Sedai, and later will provide the grounding for the Seanchan and the Aes Sedai getting along (the whole saving the Aes sedai from trollocs thing that i suggested).

 

3. The Tower being taken serves as an objective lesson to the Aes Sedai about their presumptions about themselves.

 

I actually have this pet theory that the Aes Sedai will foreswear the oaths. Specifically i think that Pevara and the others will be down in the basements with the oath rod when the attack begins. They will flee to the Rebels, and after the first counter-attack is greatly hampered by the oaths, the question of removing the oaths will be raised (as in fact it already has been amongst the Rebels).

 

Theres no evidence for it, but meh.

[Pevin]

Luckers, you certainly have a well thought out plan that I admit could happen, but if I were calling the Seanchan shots, I wouldn't attack the tower at this juncture--for many reasons. Of course, I'm not calling the shots (or writing the books).

 

We have Egwene's dream' date=' showing the Seanchan attacking the tower. Meanwhile, we have the Seanchan gathering to'raken in KoD for the express purpose of carrying out a plan, that plan is an attack on the Tower.

 

So, since we know the Seanchan WILL attack the Tower. And that the Seanchan have recently gathered a force with the express purpose of attacking the Tower, i think that we can qualitatively state that yes, they will attack the Tower, and that yes, that attack will take the form of a to'raken insurgence.[/quote']

 

Egwene's dream is not all that decisive. Here's what Egwene thought immediatley after waking up from that dream:

 

[Egwene] knew. For the first time' date=' she knew exactly what a dream meant. But why would she dream of...the Seanchan attacking the White Tower...Of course, it was only a possibility. But the events in true dreams were more likely than other possibilities.[/quote']

[Luckers]

Egwene's dream is not all that decisive. Here's what Egwene thought immediatley after waking up from that dream:

 

CoT Chap. 20 wrote:

 

[Egwene] knew. For the first time, she knew exactly what a dream meant. But why would she dream of...the Seanchan attacking the White Tower...Of course, it was only a possibility. But the events in true dreams were more likely than other possibilities.

 

True, but combined with the fact that we see preperations for the attack underway takes it out of the realm of possibility.

 

In addition to Algspkr's evidence for the attack, btw, is that when Perrin and Tylee try to get raken, Faloun states that the raken farms have been stripped to the bone because--and cuts off, looking at Perrin. When he continues he states that six raken would be taking three quarters of the animals he has left, which means he only has 8. This at the biggest Raken farm in Seanchan held lands.

[Pevin]

True' date=' but combined with the fact that we see preperations for the attack underway takes it out of the realm of possibility.[/quote']

 

I disagree. It's the preperations that make it a possibility likely enough to make a dreamer dream of it.

 

It's my contention that Tuon will forstall the attack--which I completely agree has been planned and most likely is what the to'raken are being mobilized for. My prediction (and what I would do if I were in her shoes) is that Tuon will decide against attacking the Tower because of the most recent events.

[Luckers]

I disagree. It's the preperations that make it a possibility likely enough to make a dreamer dream of it.

 

Galgan states that that plan must go ahead. That seems fairly definate to me.

 

It's my contention that Tuon will forstall the attack--which I completely agree has been planned and most likely is what the to'raken are being mobilized for. My prediction (and what I would do if I were in her shoes) is that Tuon will decide against attacking the Tower because of the most recent events.

 

I don't see Tuon forestalling the attack personally... RJ has moved too many things around, forestalled the Aes Sedai plot for too many books, and has too much to achieve in the last book to have this be a red herring. But, that being said, it might not even really be an issue, one way or the other, because we have a timing problem.

 

Specifically, Galgan cannot spare the raken and to'raken for actions in Tarabon because they are needed for the planned attack on the Tower. Given raken and to'raken manouvrability, and the fact that the attack will most likely be launched out of Tarabon, this sets a date for the attack to begin... specifically that that attack would begin before the to'raken and raken would have been able to go and aid against Arad Domon. Otherwise Galgan would have used them, or at least allowed the use of some for a certain amount of time.

 

Instead, he has mobalized the to'raken and raken, and if Faloun's comments are any judge, their absense is being felt by Seanchan armed forces. Galgan would not simply have them sitting around, waiting for an attack for long periods of time. Not when mobalisation is easy, given their manouvrability.

 

My guess, once Galgan commanded the to'raken and raken gather, it would take no more then five days for them to gather, at which stage the assault would begin. Based on Faloun's comments, that command went out a day or two--possibly more, given that Faloun clearly expects Tylee to be aware of the restrictions on the use of raken--before he meets Perrin. Timeline-wise, thats three days before the attack begins... possibly four, we know that after the raken arrived they did some scouting, they arrived the night after the meeting with Faloun, and likely spent the next day or two scouting. Then the battle itself took a day.

 

So, four or five days after the meeting with Faloun, Tylee captured the Wise Ones. On the day that Tuon returns, Galgan and Suroth are discussing Tylee's victory. Galgan makes the comment that he raised Tylee to the lower blood, since Suroth hadn't bothered to. By his comment, and Suroth's reaction, its obvious that some time has passed since they heard of the victory. It would have taken maybe a day for word to reach Ebou Dar, and maybe another for Galgan to step in and do what Suroth should have.

 

So, altogether, it was somewhere around eight to nine days at the shortest after the command for mobalisation was issued that Tuon arrived back in Ebou Dar, and possibly as many as eleven.

 

Now, assuming for some reason that she instantly addresses the issue of the attack, and not the other issues that pressed her attention--Rand's impending attack from Illian, Rand's request for an alliance, the revelation the sul'dam brough back about Semirhage, the news from home, Suroth--even if, of all these things, she chose to deal with the attack on the Tower first, and for some reason chose to countermand it, the soonest her order could reach Tarabon would be two days after that--likely more.

 

So, by the time the no-go order arrives its been eleven to thirteen days after the mobalisation began. At the outside the mobalisation would have taken five days, perhaps six.

 

That means the attack was probably launched as much as five days prior to such an order arriving. Even if they rested for a couple of days from bringing in the soldiers and damane, its still three days. In three days the to'raken would have covered 600 miles.

 

Best case scenario, they are in the Black Hills, waiting for a cloudy night. Worst, they are already in the Tower.

[Phiotr AlManera]

If they were smart, a force marched from Tarabon, out of Almoth, a week before the attack was launched. There is nothing to stop that force from being sent.

Euhm, Rodel Ituralde and his forces and about 1.000.000 soldiers Rand send to that region.

 

As for the AS using the power as a weapon. Once the Seanchan start collaring, the thirth oath

Never to use the One Power as a weapon except against Darkfriends or Shadowspawn, or in the last extreme of defending your own life, that of your Warder, or that of another sister.

will enable the AS to fight at full strength.

I also think they will form circles of 13 pretty fast and I don't see Seanchan getting past that.

But even if they did know, it doesn't make a difference really. The seanchan would hold the position of defensive power, and could hold out for reinforcements.

It does make a difference.

1) they wouldn't decapitate the serpent, as half of them are outside

2) they would need a serious force to break through the forces besieging Tar Valon (the rebels)and the forces besieging the WT (the tower guards)

That means its not as massive as your suggesting.

I'm actually not quite sure how big the tower really is.

The seanchan have been using channeling for battle for a thousand years. They know what they are doing, and they are damn good at it. Yes, the flashy age of legends weaves are likely more powerful, but the Seanchan arn't ignorent.

Agreed but the Seanchan treat their channelers as dogs wich smuthers all creative energy. They just aren't versatile in the use of saidar, even not in using saidar as a weapon.

My prediction (and what I would do if I were in her shoes) is that Tuon will decide against attacking the Tower because of the most recent events.

I don't agree. Actually, the pact with Rand enable the Seanchan to put their full efforts against the tower in stead of dividing them to deal with numerous situations.

Has anybody ever considered that Pevara and her friends (who know how to travel) will bring in Asha'man?

Best case scenario, they are in the Black Hills, waiting for a cloudy night. Worst, they are already in the Tower.

That would be a brilliant opening scene for MoL.

[Guest Anonymous!]

A cloudy night?! Correct that statement ... you meant a clear night with a full moon.

[Luckers]

Euhm, Rodel Ituralde and his forces and about 1.000.000 soldiers Rand send to that region.

 

I don't see the significance. The Seanchan already sent an army after Inturalde under the command of Leuitenant-General Turan... why would that have anything to do with a land-force moving toward Tar Valon out of Almoth?

 

I mean the big point of this attack is surprise, it's why the route the Caralain works better the striking north drom Altara--no people. Why would the armies in Arad Domon influence that?

 

As for the AS using the power as a weapon. Once the Seanchan start collaring, the thirth oath

Never to use the One Power as a weapon except against Darkfriends or Shadowspawn, or in the last extreme of defending your own life, that of your Warder, or that of another sister.

will enable the AS to fight at full strength.

 

Why, exactly? Of during the initial attack it can be claimed that the sisters and warders lives are in danger, but if the Seanchan consolidate their position the collared Aes Sedai are no longer in physical danger, and therefore the Third Oath comes back into play.

 

Being held hostage is not being in danger of losing your life.

 

I also think they will form circles of 13 pretty fast and I don't see Seanchan getting past that.

 

From Domon's account of the leashing of Ryma, we know that it is likely that the Seanchan know how to link damane, so i dont see this being any real issue.

 

It does make a difference.

1) they wouldn't decapitate the serpent, as half of them are outside

2) they would need a serious force to break through the forces besieging Tar Valon (the rebels)and the forces besieging the WT (the tower guards)

 

1) Even if they knew of the Rebels, which im not sure they did, but even if they did then the reinforcements i suggest would catch them between a hammer anvil situation. Once the initial attack is consolidated, all they need to do is hold the Tower, not defeat the Rebels. That would come later.

 

2) They would not. With an armed force of the magnitude of the one in the Tower, and an army approaching from outside the city, on foot, the Rebel forces would not stand a chance. The tactical situation favours the Seanchan.

 

I'm actually not quite sure how big the tower really is.

 

It was built to hold 6,000 sisters, which probably means between living quarters and functional rooms there are about 12,000 rooms within it. The size of Tower grounds is perfect for the number of Seanchan there are.

 

Agreed but the Seanchan treat their channelers as dogs wich smuthers all creative energy. They just aren't versatile in the use of saidar, even not in using saidar as a weapon.

 

It has been stated several times that this is not the case. Even Cadsuane comments that she thinks the damane know every way of destroying something with the power--something thats likely not true, but nonetheless relates the fact that they are considerably more knowledgeable then the Aes Sedai.

 

The Forsaken learnt knowledge will come into play, and will be part of the reason the Aes Sedai arnt over run as a whole. Travelling and inversion are both powerful tools, as is inverted light, should anyone bother to think of it.

 

But the Aes Sedai have their limitations, and their forces are simply not enough to force out an entrenched Seanchan force of the magnitude we are discussing.

 

That would be a brilliant opening scene for MoL.

 

Indeed, i actually think the attack will take place the same night as Elaida's dinner with Egwene, during the prologue. I think that Egwene will be locked up following it, but that Elaida will come off looking incredibly bad. Silviana will come to speak to Egwene, who will bring up Elaida, and Silviana will not silence her, and as they are speaking the hear sounds of battle and Egwene takes charge.

 

Near as i can tell, using the Cleansing and the timeline i stated above, it fits. The attack would have been launched around a day or so before our last scene with Egwene.

[Luckers]

A cloudy night?! Correct that statement ... you meant a clear night with a full moon.

 

Oh, and this. No, i meant a cloudy night. Visibility is not really a problem once damane are placed on the roof of the Tower and set up guiding lights. Something that a talented morat'raken should be able to pull off.

[Phiotr AlManera]

I don't see the significance. The Seanchan already sent an army after Inturalde under the command of Leuitenant-General Turan... why would that have anything to do with a land-force moving toward Tar Valon out of Almoth?

I mean the big point of this attack is surprise, it's why the route the Caralain works better the striking north drom Altara--no people. Why would the armies in Arad Domon influence that?

Well, Tarabon and Arad Domon are in chaos after Ituralde's actions and that's only part of his plan. He intends to trap and destroy the Seanchan army group west(General Turan). He has 300.000 soldiers in place for this action. Even if the Seanchan come out ahead they

(1) would need time to reorganise (they can only win paying a high price)

(2) would have to bring order back to the west

(3) would have to take up defensive positions against 1000000 hostile and equally strong troops (Rand's forces), in the same way General Chisen does in Altara, in case of

I must say I don't know exactly where all these troops are situated...

However, to suggest here that the Seanchan will sent another army (unmentionned and unseen so far) through this area, leaving their supplie lines wide open, all the way over the Caralain plaines to Tar Valon...

That's what I mean.

 

I'm also doubting your figure of 3000 damane-sul'dam carrying out the air raid.

(1) it's about 50% of their best weapon put into one risky operation

(2) a gathering of those 6000 women is nowhere mentionned

They talk a lot of the raken-shortage but don't mention this once. You could assume that Tylee Khirgan would've had some problems gathering enough sul'dam then in her cooperation with Perrin. Melitene, Tuon's der'sul'dam, doesn't mention anything like this,...

I don't think Seanchan carry out kamikaze attacks so that's not an option. Even if the Seanchan manage to reach a stalemate in the tower, wich you suggest, that doesn't make for a valid startegical option as I don't see them being releived soon.

[DemandredFO]

I have a question, in relation to Egwene's dinner with the Amarlyn when do Pevara and her crew go to the Black Tower? Cuz I was thinking if the events are parallel they could come back in the middle of the attack and the asha'man be the only thing that saves them. Again, could someone help me with the timeline. Thanks

[Luckers]

The timeline of that cant be quantified. It's after Beonin returns to the Tower, which is the day after Egwene gets captured. Following that, though, we have no way of knowing how long they waited.

 

I believe, and this is with no real support, that it was prior to the attack. I have this feeling that Pevara will be engaged in Black Ajah Hunter buisness when the attack happens.

 

I do see the Asha'man being involved in the counter-attack.

 

I wonder if any of the Aes Sedai will think about the angreal and sa'angreal, or if they'll end up in Seanchan hands. That could be interesting.

 

Well, Tarabon and Arad Domon are in chaos after Ituralde's actions and that's only part of his plan. He intends to trap and destroy the Seanchan army group west(General Turan). He has 300.000 soldiers in place for this action. Even if the Seanchan come out ahead they

(1) would need time to reorganise (they can only win paying a high price)

(2) would have to bring order back to the west

(3) would have to take up defensive positions against 1000000 hostile and equally strong troops (Rand's forces), in the same way General Chisen does in Altara, in case of

I must say I don't know exactly where all these troops are situated...

However, to suggest here that the Seanchan will sent another army (unmentionned and unseen so far) through this area, leaving their supplie lines wide open, all the way over the Caralain plaines to Tar Valon...

That's what I mean.

 

Now that the Hailene has been subsumed into the Corenne, the Seanchan have roughly 800,000 troops. We have seen an army of 30,000 in Altara, and another of 8,000. Banner-General Tylee has a force of 15,000 and Turan has one of 100,000. Then there are around 6,000 with the Seanchan attack on Tar Valon. That means that somewhere around 641,000 troops as yet unmentioned and unseen so far. Now a large part of those forces are in eastern Altara--Rand's scouts reveal them setting up forts and supply lines. Perhaps 100,000 to 200,000

 

That still leaves 441,000 troops unaccounted for, and even if ive grossly overestimated Seanchan resources, which is always possible, its still not an issue.

 

I'm still not entirely sure what point you are making though. Yes, Interulde has sprung a trap on Turan, but the Tar Valon force would have already left, and i dont see why they would be recalled in the face of that--to do so would put the air force in jeoprady.

 

The Caralain plains are uninhabited. The army would have no interference whatsoever as it travelled. Based on Mat's predicitions an army can move about 30 miles in a day. Its roughly a month trip out of almoth, which means they would have been sent around two weeks prior to the Interulde's actions, or Rand arriving. By now they would be so far out of dodge its humerous.

 

I'm also doubting your figure of 3000 damane-sul'dam carrying out the air raid.

(1) it's about 50% of their best weapon put into one risky operation

(2) a gathering of those 6000 women is nowhere mentionned

They talk a lot of the raken-shortage but don't mention this once. You could assume that Tylee Khirgan would've had some problems gathering enough sul'dam then in her cooperation with Perrin. Melitene, Tuon's der'sul'dam, doesn't mention anything like this,...

I don't think Seanchan carry out kamikaze attacks so that's not an option. Even if the Seanchan manage to reach a stalemate in the tower, wich you suggest, that doesn't make for a valid startegical option as I don't see them being releived soon.

 

1) True. But to destroy public enemy number one--the people that heald the Seanchan continent in chaos for a thousand years and made the breaking before it, the ones that just recently revealed the true depth of their dangerousness in PoD, the people who, in the eyes of the Seanchan, are worse then the Shadow--they would use 50% of their most powerful weapon.

 

Aside from which, why wouldn't they. Thats what weapons are for, to be used, and it's not like they dont have other resources.

 

2) Well, it needn't be. They get up, go to the raken fields and fly off the whatever marshalling grounds have been set up for the raken. We have only been to a raken farm, and only been present at a discussion for the need of rakens. We have never been at a damane house.

 

Why would it have been mentioned?

 

They talk a lot of the raken-shortage but don't mention this once. You could assume that Tylee Khirgan would've had some problems gathering enough sul'dam then in her cooperation with Perrin. Melitene, Tuon's der'sul'dam, doesn't mention anything like this,...

 

ALL to'raken are being used, and what few raken were left have been sent to Turan. But only half the damane are used. There are still 3,000 damane around--more, now, with the capture of the Shaido. And sul'dam? There are somewhere between 12,000 and 18,000 sul'dam. Even with 3,000 gone there is no shortage.

 

I don't think Seanchan carry out kamikaze attacks so that's not an option. Even if the Seanchan manage to reach a stalemate in the tower, wich you suggest, that doesn't make for a valid startegical option as I don't see them being releived soon.

 

Well a) from the point of view of their planning, there was no stalemate, just victory. I agree that the Rebels will throw a spanner in the works. Not enough of one for the Seanchan to be defeated, but enough to stop immediate victory. Which the Seanchan would be fine with. They simply settle down and hold the tower until reinforcements arrive. It wouldn't even be like they were facing heavy attack from the Aes Sedai.

 

And why wouldn't they? You say you dont see them being relieved soon--why? Even if no land based force was sent, which i think is silly, Tarabon was as safe as Seandar when the decision would have been made, and even if it weren't, the Seanchan have other resources to deal with that, and the attack on the tower would have gone forward anyway--but even if no land force was sent, air based reinforcements are only two weeks away.

[Tenshin_Xo]

Also since TGH Seanchan have been constantly commenting on how many Damane they have been scooping up. They have aggressive searched nearly all of the western coastal areas collaring anyone they find. Even Domon marveled several times at how many damane they had, heck even his wife owned at least one. We've seen the one house when Mat leads the rescue and the descriptions made the place sound like it was part kennel and part barracks. They didn't even have the same amount of time there as they had in Falme to set up shop so to speak. I'd say that Luckers Estimates might be conservative, considering the size of the Correnne and how successful Taim has been using tactics similar in penetration to the Seanchan.

 

From an assault point of view, thier aim is to destroy the Tower and all AS. Whats to prevent them from detonating the land from the river banks in. Previously they have wanted to capture towns and cities leaving infrastructure intact. Several different seanchan have mentioned salting the ground the Tower stands on. I don't think they much care about collateral damage either, let alone property damage in this case. Luckers has a great point with the inverted light, if sisters link and make the tower invisible using sa'angreal, and invert the weaves Damane won't be able to channel effectively inside that barrier until they cut those weaves. If the AS use a series of links to reinforce/protect the weave they may have a method of stalling the damane without violating the Three Oaths.

[Guest Barmacral]

Tar Valon being destroyed does seem to be a goal of the Seanchan, you must remember the time when Rand uses the portal stones and goes through all those lives, in one of them the Seanchan did tear down the white tower and salt the lands of Tar Valon.

[Phiotr AlManera]

Yes, Interulde has sprung a trap on Turan, but the Tar Valon force would have already left

Yeah, didn't think of that.

and i dont see why they would be recalled in the face of that

Well, if Turan fails, this land-bound seanchan Tar Valon invasion force would be cut of from the rest of the Seanchan territories. This army heading for TV would probably not have stayed unnoticed too.

Now I think of it, the Seanchan haven't noticed Rand's last troop movements into Arad Domon yet (by the end of KoD) so that leaves Ituralde as the only treath, in the Seanchan eyes.

I can pretty much agree with your calculations of the Seanchan troop numbers. I remember RJ answering a simular question with RAFO.

If there's a seanchan army headed for Tar Valon, they are cut off now.

But to destroy public enemy number one--the people that heald the Seanchan continent in chaos for a thousand years and made the breaking before it, the ones that just recently revealed the true depth of their dangerousness in PoD, the people who, in the eyes of the Seanchan, are worse then the Shadow--they would use 50% of their most powerful weapon.

Aside from which, why wouldn't they. Thats what weapons are for, to be used, and it's not like they dont have other resources.

Not if they won't survive. An airborn trop into Tar Valon, the physical destruction of the tower itself and an airborn trip out, could be a possiblity.

(2) a gathering of those 6000 women is nowhere mentionned

Well, it needn't be.

1) I'd say they would at least do/need some training

2) it does remain strange that nobody (we get PoV of a lot of high ranking Seanchan) mentions this

As for the shortage. They would need a lot of (experienced) damane for their Illian-invasion too

 

Oh, another thing I just thought off. Didn't anybody find it strange in KoD how Logain says to the Seafolk that their supply mission for the Arad Domon troops will be their preparation for TG. Is their another purpose for Rand's Arad Domon troops besides preparing for an eventual Seanchan attack? Something more TG related?

[Luckers]

Also since TGH Seanchan have been constantly commenting on how many Damane they have been scooping up. They have aggressive searched nearly all of the western coastal areas collaring anyone they find. Even Domon marveled several times at how many damane they had, heck even his wife owned at least one. We've seen the one house when Mat leads the rescue and the descriptions made the place sound like it was part kennel and part barracks. They didn't even have the same amount of time there as they had in Falme to set up shop so to speak. I'd say that Luckers Estimates might be conservative, considering the size of the Correnne and how successful Taim has been using tactics similar in penetration to the Seanchan.

 

I've always felt so. But meh, its better to go for the conservative coz less people argue.

 

On this issue though, a rough estimate based on the rough understanding of basic population distribution and RJ's statement on percentage of channelers suggests that somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 women in Randland can channel.

 

Additionally the Kin are mostly centered in the lands the Seanchan have conquered.

[Luckers]

Well, if Turan fails, this land-bound seanchan Tar Valon invasion force would be cut of from the rest of the Seanchan territories. This army heading for TV would probably not have stayed unnoticed too.

 

Why? Turans force represents one eighth of the seanchan militay presence. Aside from which, they have air based defences. How exactly would this force be cut off? And even if it was, why would it matter? That force can hold Tar Valon... it can be self sustaining.

 

Also, none of this would have been an issue when this force was sent, so what is the relevance.

 

As for them being noticed... dude, the Caralain Grass is the most uninhabitated area on the planet. Why on earth would they have been noticed?

[Phiotr AlManera]

If Turan fails, what's left of his forces will be scattered.

The TV assault force would be cut off, in one of the most uninhabited regions of Randland, thus not being able to self sustain.

As for them being noticed..., I meant while travelling cross the Almoth plaines.

Also, none of this would have been an issue when this force was sent, so what is the relevance.

True, enough about this then.

[Luckers]

Seanchan troop movements were commented on in Almoth. And this force will more then probably be utterly self-sustaining. Even Interulde comments on Seanchan intelligence and efficiency when it comes to supplying their soldiers, and certainly they would be aware that baggage trains would be noticed.

[Wanderer]

So that would be a maximum soldiers army is 4' date='000. Or a force of 3,500 Damane/Sul'dam pairs for the Channeler only force for 1000 To'Raken.

 

So your maximum load carried by the To'Raken will be 1000 lb's * 1000 To'Raken for a total of 1,000,000 lb effective load. Each To'Raken will carry 342 lbs of food for a total of 342,000 lbs of food, leaving 658,000 lbs for soldiers (227 lbs) and damane/sul'dam (286 lbs) pairs. So a good mixed force of 2,000 troops and 700 damane/sul'dam pairs is more realistic. Quite frankly that seems like suicide to me.

[/quote']

 

I've read all this topic and what I believe is that all logistic problem can be solved only with the fact that we are in a fantasy book.

Any army needs supply, the to'raken need supply and rest, water and food. The Seanchan will have to create a safe route in the Caralain Grass so that all the flying beasts, best to not forget the normal raken, will be able to use a certain number of safe landing spots.

These safe landing spots will be scattered around 1400 miles of enemy territory, in easy reach of any enemy force...it's a mad hope to think of being able to sustain such a supply line and the Seanchan are aware that Aes Sedai and Asha-man can even Travel.

Their only hope is a raid action, based on a rapid retreat after a hard blow to the enemy, but after that blow the surprise element will be no longer avaible for future attacks, so why launching an attack now that they can't mantain what they could conquer.