Eqwene's Seanchan woman dream

[Luckers]

I disagree. They can maintain what they conquer as long as they have set up their forces right, and the fact that they have been planning this for months makes it very likely that they have set up their forces right.

 

Sending a land baced force through the Caralain Grass, setting up supply dumps for the to'raken force as they travel. Landing the to'raken and taking Tower, having the the Tower based force launch an internal attack as the land based force launch an external based assault to take the city in full.

 

Its not only reasonable, intelligent and do-able... its seemingly done, given the evidence we've had in prophecy and KoD.

 

And i dont see how Aes Sedai and Asha'men travelling threaten exposure. Why on earth would an Aes Sedai or Asha'men travel to the most unpopulated place on the planet.

 

Also, you misspoke. The travelling is not through enemy land, no one inhabits those lands. It's 1400 miles of uninhabited land. And is at no stage in reach of enemy forces, easy or otherwise.

[Wanderer]

 

Sending a land baced force through the Caralain Grass' date=' setting up supply dumps for the to'raken force as they travel. Landing the to'raken and taking Tower, having the the Tower based force launch an internal attack as the land based force launch an external based assault to take the city in full.

 

Its not only reasonable, intelligent and do-able... its seemingly done, given the evidence we've had in prophecy and KoD.[/quote']

 

I agree to this part, they really can accomplish this if some events go on in a certain way for them, which I'm sure they would becouse of the story needs.

 

And i dont see how Aes Sedai and Asha'men travelling threaten exposure. Why on earth would an Aes Sedai or Asha'men travel to the most unpopulated place on the planet.

 

That's exactly the point^^ It's the most unpopulated place on the planet' date=' they need to carry on food from the lands they control as long as the occupation of Tar Valon go on(and we know how difficult it is now that the Shadow spoils everything); so the safe route across Caralain Grass must be manteined: it's a looooong way and easily targeted.

Aes Sedai and Asha-man can cut this line easily with Travel-based raids and ambush. I was speaking of the situation after the Tar Valon falls; I agree that they will not be discovered before that: no one will look there.

 

 

Also, you misspoke. The travelling is not through enemy land, no one inhabits those lands. It's 1400 miles of uninhabited land. And is at no stage in reach of enemy forces, easy or otherwise.

 

Right, it isn't namely enemy territory, but neither is land under their firm grasp like the lands they usually use to attack other country. So they expose the forces they are using in this attack to all sorts of counter attacks...quite a waste I'd say.

[Luckers]

That's exactly the point^^ It's the most unpopulated place on the planet, they need to carry on food from the lands they control as long as the occupation of Tar Valon go on(and we know how difficult it is now that the Shadow spoils everything); so the safe route across Caralain Grass must be manteined: it's a looooong way and easily targeted.

Aes Sedai and Asha-man can cut this line easily with Travel-based raids and ambush. I was speaking of the situation after the Tar Valon falls; I agree that they will not be discovered before that: no one will look there.

 

Ah, i see. My mistake. Even so, i dont see it being an issue. The land around Tar Valon is all rich farmland, there is a certain degree to which that army, like the Rebels, can live off that land and the food in the city. Supply lines would only be needed to get the force to the city, if they are cut off after... well, thats an annoyance. But not one that is extreme. Certainly if matters become desperate there are to'raken to bring in supplies. And really, once the city falls what do they really have to worry about.

 

And then there is the likelyhood of the Seanchan colonizing the Caralain Grass. The amount of Seanchan colonists will require open space, the Caralain Grass seems obvious. Given that the next step in their conquest would likely be an invasion of Andor, i think in the long term controlling Tar Valon is not really an issue of being cut off from their main army--especially given the rate of conquest--but a strategic step in consolidating the land. It wont play out like that, but thats not going to have occured to the Seanchan.

 

Once opposition is nuetralized within Tar Valon the force there can sustain itself, if the supply lines remain open all the better, but they arn't nessasary. It is only during the journey that the loss of the supply lines would be an issue, and i dont see them being discovered. Even then, the to'raken are only unavailiable for the week (ten days) they are carting the assault force, after that they are availliable for emergency.

 

Right, it isn't namely enemy territory, but neither is land under their firm grasp like the lands they usually use to attack other country. So they expose the forces they are using in this attack to all sorts of counter attacks...quite a waste I'd say.

 

I disagree strongly. They are moving a force through lands that hold no enemies. No one to alert people to their coming. No one to sabotage. Even with the possibility of discovery they would do it. Even with the likely possibility of discovery.

 

They are an army. There is always the chance of counter-attack, or sabotage, or things not going to plan. In THIS plan though that chance is greatly reduced as compared to their other assaults in which they moved against actual nations. Here they move on grass... the possibility of oposition would be no reason not to act.

[Wanderer]

I agree that the Attack is well planned; what I doubt is the possibility to hold after conquering Tar Valon.

 

The to'raken can't be used to supply food for a city like Tar Valon, becouse in that case we will see a stream of them all around the city and even a little number of Asha-man could wipe them out of the sky easily. Aes Sedai would be probably blocked by the oaths. The land around the city is usefull, the rebels are using it but that means to extend the Seanchan control out of the city and that whoever escape don't manage to put in action the most common strategy used in this case, that is to burn everything and let the enemy starve. We have seen the like whenever someone tried to conquer Russia like Napoleon or Hitler, in a way the situation is similar: a long path from mainland and the target of the strike, great difficulty in keeping a big army,not to mention Tar Valon population, feed.

[Kyourai]

I think alot of whats to happend has been discussed in here by now. The attack will most likly happend just around the timeline of Egwene atending Elaida. Based on how the Seanchan will strike. I would say its most likly shortly after. In some way in that meeting Egwene will have a victory that makes many of those around her really open their eyes. And as She is on her way to the Mistress of Novices the Seanchan strike or while she is there has also been suggested. I find those two options to be the most probable.

 

However i think that people are overestimating the amount of Damene and Suldam available to the Seanchan. If we think a bit on when Rand attacked the Seanchan forces that was near Illidan we know he took capties and at very minimal losses. This supports that there where tops 200 Damene available there for the Seanchan. Since we know Rand dident bring to many Ashaman but this strike did put a huge fear in the Seanchan for Ashaman. They fear 1 Ashaman most likly more then 50 Damene by their standards, reason being they cant detect a Ashaman the same way and a Ashaman isent afraid to strike.

 

They know Rand can place Ashaman about at a drastic rate wherever their needed. This has placed a huge problem for them advancing east. They most likly know Rand will respond to any strike to Tar Valon, or could be there in a matter of houers tops after the strike begins. We mustent forget that there IS a Ashaman waiting just outside Tar Valon at this very moment loial to rand thru his Aes Sedai. He could warn rand most probable at a rapid speed, same goes for the Black Tower.

 

And suggesting that the Seanchan supply 6000 with the ability to channel to Tar Valon isent realistic. 1000 Tops can be justified. If they had so many Damene as claimed here they wouldent be strugling anywhere. And if they removed so many to focus on Tar Valon in itself all their outerflaks should colapse atlest their side vs Illidan, which means with Travel knowlage they could take Ebon Dar within a day. The Seanchan wouldent risk that, the number of suggested Damene and Suldam is to high. Even if we count most newly captured Damene the number suggested is far to high stil.

[Luckers]

I think alot of whats to happend has been discussed in here by now. The attack will most likly happend just around the timeline of Egwene atending Elaida. Based on how the Seanchan will strike. I would say its most likly shortly after. In some way in that meeting Egwene will have a victory that makes many of those around her really open their eyes. And as She is on her way to the Mistress of Novices the Seanchan strike or while she is there has also been suggested. I find those two options to be the most probable.

 

I was thinking that it might be likely that Elaida sends Egwene to the cells. Amongst other things this would put her in a perfect position to liase with the Black Ajah Hunters--but more, if theres going to be an attack on the Tower, why not escalate the situation between Egwene and Elaida. I think Egwene will show Elaida up so much that she'll snap.

 

However i think that people are overestimating the amount of Damene and Suldam available to the Seanchan. If we think a bit on when Rand attacked the Seanchan forces that was near Illidan we know he took capties and at very minimal losses. This supports that there where tops 200 Damene available there for the Seanchan. Since we know Rand dident bring to many Ashaman but this strike did put a huge fear in the Seanchan for Ashaman. They fear 1 Ashaman most likly more then 50 Damene by their standards, reason being they cant detect a Ashaman the same way and a Ashaman isent afraid to strike.

 

Seanchan is much larger and much more populated then Randland. Since landing they've conquered roughly one third of Randland, taking almost four hundred Aiel Wise Ones, as well as holding onto whatever number of Windfinders that didn't escape in the Escape.

 

Roughly one percent of the population can channel--and RJ has said that that rate is slightly higher in Seanchan given that the sul'dam stayed in the breeding pool. Now, given their relative social stability, the size of the seanchan continent (1,152,000,000 square miles based on a VERY rough estimate established by the length of the distance between World's End and Tarwin Gap, with a littl ruler work thrown in), their overpopulation, I would say that in the real world there would be around 200 million people in Seanchan.

 

1% of 200 million is 2 million - the male channelers = 1 million, of which around 80% are learners.

 

Now, since that seems unlikely, i agree. But certainly given the size of the land and the constant reinforcement of their overpopulation, i'd say there are at least 20,000 sul'dam and 6,000 damane, and i concider that low.

 

If they had so many Damene as claimed here they wouldent be strugling anywhere.

 

Well, they arn't actually struggling anywhere. They are paused, consolidating the land they have, before enacting their next move. They've conquered every land they've attacked with eas in a matter of hourse EXCEPT Illian, and even then it was only because of the use of Callandor. Yes, Rand's tactics were confusing them--the general was responding to a force of as much as 50,000 and 500 Asha'men. Despite that the Seanchan were only delayed--they were still driving forward. It was only Callandor that broke their advance.

 

We mustent forget that there IS a Ashaman waiting just outside Tar Valon at this very moment loial to rand thru his Aes Sedai. He could warn rand most probable at a rapid speed, same goes for the Black Tower

 

We didn't. I too believe Egwene will send for aid elsewhere, but at that time Rand will be caught up with the Borderlanders, and out of reach, his force in the north will be involved in the Wise One uprising, or perhaps in dealing with Turan and Interulde, or perhaps with Graendal. The force in Illian will have orders reguarding the Seanchan--will possibly be even involved in fighting an incursion themselves.

 

I do think Elayne will come though.

 

The Seanchan wouldent risk that, the number of suggested Damene and Suldam is to high. Even if we count most newly captured Damene the number suggested is far to high stil.

 

I still dont see the risk. The Seanchan would still have 800,000 soldiers and 3000 to 4000 damane.

[Dunedain Fal]

No way that Seachan army can survive 1400 miles of grassland without food. If there are no people, then there are no farms or livestock, just wildlife. When you have an army, feeding on wildlife is asking for disaster.

 

No, it is mostly simple. Take a look at Randland map. Seachan are very good with intelligence. Theyn know that Andor is in the midst of a civil war and the Andoran forces are mostly concentrated around Caemlyn and nearby Murandy, leaving the river Manethredrelle up in Central Andor widely unpatrolled and undefended. Therefore they will have forces situated nearby the river in Altara and they will assemble enough ships move up the river to the Caralain Grass with sufficient supplies. Then they will sail to River Haevlin since its end lies close to White Tower. They will come up the river under the guise of trading ships. That would solve the problem of equipping the soldiers without exacting a huge price on to'raken and raken.

 

 

So instead of marching 1400 miles living on wildlife, they can march about 400 miles living on their own rations. Thus the toraken will not be tired by all the constant ferrying. Once they are close to Tar Valon such as 25 miles, the Seachan will slip two raiding parties filled with damanes/suldams and fists of heavens. The raiding party's sole task is to breach the walls and have a breakout. The other raiding party will bottle up the Aes Sedai in the White Tower. Then the main force will smash into Tar Valon and we will see a nasty fight.

 

But the Seachan doesn't know about the opposing rebel army. So it would be interesting on how they plan to get around that problem.

 

The Seachan has got to know that Aes Sedai will use the Power if threatened. So they will make every attempt not to threaten them until the damanes are in range and cut them off from the Source.

 

One thing against the Seachan is that Aes Sedai can form circles and thus create strong shields against damane attackes but of course that means that Aes Sedai have less avenues of attack to take up.

 

Through Suroth who gets her information from Semirihage who gets her info from Messana would relay the message to the rest of Seachan forces that Aes Sedai are fractured and divided and that could be exploited.

[Luckers]

No way that Seachan army can survive 1400 miles of grassland without food. If there are no people, then there are no farms or livestock, just wildlife. When you have an army, feeding on wildlife is asking for disaster.

 

I'm sorry, did someone suggest they would?

 

 

One thing against the Seachan is that Aes Sedai can form circles and thus create strong shields against damane attackes but of course that means that Aes Sedai have less avenues of attack to take up.

 

Damane know how to link. I dont see how this is an advantage.

[Wanderer]

Whatever they can conquer, they can't hold, so it's a foolish plan.

 

It isn't a foolish plan only if they mean it as a raid : struck and run away, as I said before.

 

They can't mantain a safe supply path, this is a given.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Wanderer, I agree with your earlier statement that the only way this invasion could happen is that this is fantasy. Realistically, this plan would never work, and the risk is far too great for any educated military officer to take. Jordan has to make a Seanchan attack on the White Tower, so in Randland this attack is perfectly reasonable and more importantly will probably work without a hitch. Granted this could be Rand's, Mat's, and Perrin's Ta'veren-ness making everything happen, and it's not the Seanchan's fault for choosing this course of action.

 

Luckers, I mostly agree with your assessment of the Seanchan homeland, though I disagree with the number of “natural” channelers associated with the Seanchan. If this has been discussed before and you were just providing a “high” number in your above quote, I’m sorry for reiterating. Jordan’s exact quote on channelers was:

 

“While I have spoken of souls being born with the ability to channel in response to questions, I think of it as being genetic also. In the Age of Legends, between 2 and 3% of people had some ability, following a bell curve distribution in strength. For over 3000 years, though, Aes Sedai have been removing men who actually learned to channel from the gene pool. They have been very efficient at this. As a result, the “present day” sees about 1% of the population who can learn to channel, with a much, much smaller percentage of that being born with the spark.”

 

In math, applied science, and engineering, the phrase “much less” or “much greater” implies a very strong inequality. Depending on the discipline it could be as much as 4 (10,000) orders of magnitude difference, but most agree that it is a difference of at least two orders of magnitude (100). It certainly is a factor larger than 10. I personally believe Seanchan is pushing 300,000,000 people, but let us go with your example of 200,000,000. I’m assuming half the population is female and as a result there should be 1,000,000 Sul’dam, with a much, much smaller (factor of 100) 10,000 Damane.

 

I think you misplaced a comma in your calculation for Seanchan. Using the World Map and scale from the Big White Book, even if you just placed a rectangle over the Seanchan continents (Seanchan major and minor) the box dimensions would be ~4,500 miles across and ~8,000 miles tall for a land area of 36,000,000 Sq Miles. My incomplete detailed analysis of Seanchan (to subtract out water) was about:

Seanchan Major: ~14,500,000 SQ Miles

Seanchan Minor: ~2,930,000 SQ Miles

Island next to Seanchan Minor in Morenal Ocean: ~260,000 SQ Miles

Island next to Seanchan Major in Aryth Ocean: ~290,000 SQ Miles

 

I have only plotted out about 95% of the Seanchan land area, and of course I have no idea what the terrain is like. And there is always error of rulers and stuff, but I think ~15,000,000 SQ miles for Seanchan Major would be a nice estimate, and 3,000,000 for Seanchan Minor.

 

Considering the fact that the Earth has a land area of 57,506,055 SQ Miles (CIA Factbook) and RJ has implied that Randland is a variant of our reality, then it has to be assumed that the total land area for that world is about our real world land area. So 1 Billion is right out. Unless RJ’s miles are really different than British miles.

 

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****

 

Side note: The thing I disliked about KoD is that it's focus was not on the Last Battle. The single greatest (potential) ally to Rand is the Seanchan, since their empire has realistically 200 - 300 million people, which means they should have had at least 10-15 thousand damane (probably more). The Roman Empire at its height had about 300,000 troops (legions plus garrisons and auxilaries) to reign over a population of about 65 million people. If the Seanchan were as organized as the Romans, I wouldn't be surprised if the Seanchan regular army is 1-1.5 million soldiers. And yet the complete loss of this force barely made it into the prologue. This changed the entire fighting force for the Light and it barely took up a paragraph, and zero text was dedicated to its importance. Before that Prologue, I used to think "Who cares about the Aes Sedai and their pathetic army of about 100,000 troops, 800 Aes Sedai, 1400 other channelers? The Seanchan will provide at least 10X that number of each." Now the Aes Sedai are important again.

 

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****

[Dunedain Fal]

I'm sorry' date=' did someone suggest they would? [/quote']

 

I was just referring to the whole conversation.

 

Damane know how to link. I dont see how this is an advantage.

 

No they cannot link while being damanes. Their collars that force the linking prevents that. While they are wearing the collars, they are only linked to the suldam wearing it. Remember in order to link with others, it must be voluntary. The collars force you to link.

[Dunedain Fal]

And yet the complete loss of this force barely made it into the prologue. This changed the entire fighting force for the Light and it barely took up a paragraph' date=' and zero text was dedicated to its importance. Before that Prologue, I used to think "Who cares about the Aes Sedai and their pathetic army of about 100,000 troops, 800 Aes Sedai, 1400 other channelers? The Seanchan will provide at least 10X that number of each." Now the Aes Sedai are important again.

 

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****[/quote']

 

It was not a complete loss. The raids centered on depots and supply lines not barracks or garrisons. Remember that Ituralde wanted only to stir a hornet's nest and have the hornets chasing after him as to draw out the army out in the open. So the Seachan may have suffered casaulties but by no stretch of imagination did the Seachan force get obliterated.

 

Are you referring to the loss of the army by Rand? If so, most of the army were made of Altarans, Tarabons, and Amadicians, not Seachans. Ditto with Mat's campaign.

[Luckers]

No they cannot link while being damanes. Their collars that force the linking prevents that. While they are wearing the collars, they are only linked to the suldam wearing it. Remember in order to link with others, it must be voluntary. The collars force you to link.

 

I'm sorry, but thats not true. In the Great Hunt a circle was placed around Ryma. Based on what we witness there, it seems likely that they can't have more then six damane in a circle, but they can link. The voluntary requirement isn't really an argument against it, the sul'dam need merely command them to join the link. And besides, the voluntary requirement isn't always true, we know the Black Ajah know of a method of forcing a woman into a link.

 

You are thinking of Elayne taking off the bracelet before joining a circle, with the thought that she did not know what would have happened had she been wearing the bracelet when she entered the circle. She did not know.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Dunedain Fal: I'm not referring to the Seanchan on this side of the Ocean.

 

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****

 

I was referring to Semirhage and the fact that the Seanchan Empire was embroiled in a 50-sided civil war when she left Seanchan weeks ago. I can only imagine how much worse it has gotten in the last few weeks. Considering the fact that the War of the Roses last 30+ years and that was only between 2 major factions and over such a small nation (compared to Seanchan), the Seanchan will not approach its pre-TEotW power for centuries, if ever.

 

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****

****KoD Spoilers****

[Phiotr AlManera]

I'm sorry, but thats not true. In the Great Hunt a circle was placed around Ryma. Based on what we witness there, it seems likely that they can't have more then six damane in a circle, but they can link.

That's not conclusive Luckers. In tGH Bayle Domon is telling this story, he said they were standing in a circle around her, not that they were in a saidar circle.

[Luckers]

The fact that Ryma fell down when Sherraine called to her implies to me at least some participation.

 

More specifically though we have seen two damane linked to one sul'dam. If need be that presents the methodological manner in which links equalling that the Aes Sedai achieve can be arranged.

 

And yes, the Seanchan do know how to link, even if you think they didn't before. They have had Aes Sedai for some time, and clearly would have pressed them on weaves that could give Aes Sedai a tactical advantage. And Pura and Meilyn at least would have been forthcoming. These people are not stupid. They will have planned for this when planning the assault.

[cloglord]

I had an alternate take on this.

 

First, we know that the plan was hatched before news of the death of the empress and the imperial court were known. Second, we know that an attack on the tower will take place, as per Egwene's dream. Third, we know that a large number of Aes Sedai will be collared and forced to fight against other sisters.

 

She had dreamed of Seanchan, too, of women in dresses with lightning bolts woven on their breasts, collaring a long line of women who wore Great Serpent rings, forcing them to call lightning against the White Tower.

TDR CH.25

 

Fourth, we know that the attack will be quick, not sustained as Lucker's theory suggests.

 

A small white plinth stood centered in that circle, supporting an oil-lamp made of clear glass. The flame on that lamp burned bright and steady, without flickering. It was white too. Suddenly a pair of birds flashed out of the mist, two ravens black as night. Streaking across the spire-top, they struck the lamp and flew on without so much as a pause. The lamp spun and wobbled, dancing around atop the plinth, flinging off droplets of oil. Some of those drops caught fire in midair and vanished. Others fell around the short column, each supporting a tiny, flickering white flame. And the lamp continued to wobble on the edge of falling.

(emphasis mine) COT Ch.30

 

Lastly, it appears that the mysterious seanchan swordwoman will be in a less precarious position than Egwene, but still needs something from Egwene.

She was struggling up a narrow, rocky path along the face of a towering cliff. Clouds surrounded her, hiding the ground below and the crest above, yet she knew that both were very far away. [...] Abruptly, the ledge dropped away from under her with the crack of crumbling stone, and she caught frantically at the cliff, fingers scrabbling to find a hold. [...] Suddenly a woman appeared, clambering down the sheer side of the cliff out of the clouds, making her way as deftly as if she were walking down stairs. There was a sword strapped to her back. Her face wavered, never settling clearly, but the sword seemed as solid as the stone. The woman reached Egwene's level and held out one hand. "We can reach the top together," she said in a familiar drawling accent.

(again the emphasis is mine)

 

So, here's my alternate theory. The shifting seanchan woman IS Tuon. The reason that she doesn't appear as herself is that she has not put off mourning, and has yet to chose a new name for herself, in fact she doesn't even think what her new name would be as it would be bad luck. The reason that she has a sword on her back is because she is set on a path to war, a war to reclaim her empire on the other side of the ocean. She would be in a position to release all of the collared aes sedai and to help Egwene reach the amrylin seat, all that she must do in exchange,.....is for Egwene to teach the Seanchan the weave for traveling.

 

What is Tuon's motivation? I think she's most interested in getting back to Seanchan and settling thigs down. The only way that she can reach Seanchan in time would be to travel there.

 

So here goes, The seanchan launch a lightning attack at the tower with the sole goal of capturing sisters and beheading the tower. Tuon, hopes to force the tower aes sedai to teach them the weave for traveling, but it turns out that the tower aes sedai don't know the weave. The fact that the tower has fallen to the seanchan places Egwene in a precarious position, she is forced to make a deal to save the sisters, Tuon makes the deal to get back home as quick as posible, and the attack is resolved "without so much as a pause."

[/b]

[Luckers]

One thing, we do not KNOW that it will be a raid. You have reason to suggest it as a theory, certainly, but we do not know it. Sorry.

[cloglord]

Spin it how you want Luckers, the dream's pretty clear. It says that they flew on without so much as a pause. Sorry, but if they don't stop they don't stop. Not for a day, a week, a month.

 

On the second page of this thread you said,

I think leashing the Aes Sedai is the ultimate goal.

 

Why does the tower need to be held by the seanchan in order for this to happen? The answer, because it fits your other theories, or as you put it, "mainly for thematic reasons." Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

 

On page 3 you say,

 

Thats not really an issue as i dont see the Seanchan having ever planned to try and hold the city. Their forces are too small. My guess is that they always planned to only hold the Tower at first, and discourage any sort of action against tower grounds with damane, which against a civillian population, or indeed the army of tar valon, would have been easily done.

As i said, the Rebels changed things.

 

So, you think that the Seanchan goal was simply to collar aes sedai, and you don't think that they planned to stay. Somehow the presence of the rebels will cause them to suddenly try to defend a place they never intended nor planned to defend, against a massive force that knows they are there. A force that they know can travel above them, below them and among them at any time? A force fighting to regain their home. A force that knows the lay of the land? A force that is no longer constrained against a fight within the tower, since it would be a fight to save sisters instead of a fight to kill sisters? Yeah, that's a much better plan than attempting to load their captives back up and fly away with them. Of course there are probably thematic reasons.....

 

The Seanchan have twice the power, hold a position of defensive strength, and can be reinforced within a week.

 

If they were smart, a force marched from Tarabon, out of Almoth, a week before the attack was launched. There is nothing to stop that force from being sent. So, they have forces holding the heart of the city, and re-inforcements within a week to two weeks. The city becomes the nut.

 

Wait a second, I'm confused. On page 3 you say that "i dont see the Seanchan having ever planned to try and hold the city. Their forces are too small." Yet here you seem to be saying that if they were smart they would have planned to hold the city. Lacking a plan in advance, how to you propose that the seanchan are going to safetly get their to'raken away, rest them, scramble a new force of reinforcements, supply them, and safely fly them past the now forewarned rebels? Or how about this little nugget?

 

If the rebels hadn't been there, they could have sat in the tower and easily repulsed any sort of counter-attack the city had to offer, and when their reinforcements arrived, the city would have fallen with ease.

 

Which is it, will their forces be too small, or will they be able to easily repulse any counter attack?

 

Even if no land based force was sent, which i think is silly, Tarabon was as safe as Seandar when the decision would have been made, and even if it weren't, the Seanchan have other resources to deal with that, and the attack on the tower would have gone forward anyway--but even if no land force was sent, air based reinforcements are only two weeks away.

 

So by page 5 you are saying that it would have been silly for the Seanchan not to have sent a landbased force against Tar Valon. Yet you said this when you started the "Will Lan reach Tarwin's Gap in time thread.

 

Lan begins at World's End somewhere between five and seven days after the Cleansing. Based on Interuldes comments he has somewhere around 1,600 miles to cross, and he has followers to gather. Now even if they he just rides through, finds them on their horses, and joins him, its going to delay him. Best case scenario considering the horses involved, he would be able to manage 30 miles a day. It should be much less (for those interested in the logistics of horse travel i posted it in the 'The Shadow Comes to Tar Valon' thread) but lets say 30. Thats 10 days per 300 miles. So altogether he would be arriving at Fal Moran at around midday on the 54th day.

 

Assuming that the Seanchan would be no faster than the speed you cite, why would it be silly for the seanchan not to have sent a landbased army to Tar Valon? Should they have sent an army 54 days ago across Murandy, Andor, or both, just in case they decided to try and hold Tar Valon? Should they have done this, even if they never planned to hold the city and their ultimate goal was just to collar Aes Sedai?

 

Of how about this?

 

That force can hold Tar Valon... it can be self sustaining.

Now it can hold without reinforcements? It just gets better and better.

 

 

Okay, now on to page 6. You say,

They can maintain what they conquer as long as they have set up their forces right, and the fact that they have been planning this for months makes it very likely that they have set up their forces right.

 

Sending a land baced force through the Caralain Grass, setting up supply dumps for the to'raken force as they travel. Landing the to'raken and taking Tower, having the the Tower based force launch an internal attack as the land based force launch an external based assault to take the city in full.

 

Now, not only do they plan to conquer and maintain, but they have already planned their reinforcements, and set them up throughout the Carlain Grass. Apparently, Seanchan intelligence and planning is great enough to see the need for reinforcements and an external attack to support the internal attack. If Seanchan planning is this good, why don't they seem to know that the rebels are there? Don't you think they would have sent at least one raken to fly over and check things out, before the To-Raken started landing? Wouldn't they have noticed the giant besieging army?

 

So, which is it? Is it a raid, or is it a giant sidestepping, backpeddling, justification for a personal theory? Sorry, you asked for it.

[Luckers]

*sigh* this discussion was done with. You know my position. What is with this gesticulating cloglord? Your just making an as$ of yourself.

 

Quote:

I think leashing the Aes Sedai is the ultimate goal.

 

 

Why does the tower need to be held by the seanchan in order for this to happen? The answer, because it fits your other theories, or as you put it, "mainly for thematic reasons." Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

 

Yes. Exactly. Though the hostility with which you said that makes me think you've made a point.

 

Quote:

Thats not really an issue as i dont see the Seanchan having ever planned to try and hold the city. Their forces are too small. My guess is that they always planned to only hold the Tower at first, and discourage any sort of action against tower grounds with damane, which against a civillian population, or indeed the army of tar valon, would have been easily done.

As i said, the Rebels changed things.

 

 

So, you think that the Seanchan goal was simply to collar aes sedai, and you don't think that they planned to stay. Somehow the presence of the rebels will cause them to suddenly try to defend a place they never intended nor planned to defend, against a massive force that knows they are there.

 

I'm sorry, what? I said that they plan to hold the Tower, and that i doubt that it was ever their intention to take the city, and you somehow read that as me saying i dont think they planned to stay. The Rebel presense changes their hopes for success at holding the Tower, though not as completely as you imply. 3000 damane is no shrug off matter, even for a travelling army.

 

Hey cloglord, you know whats helpful... reading. Especially in this context.

 

Quote:

The Seanchan have twice the power, hold a position of defensive strength, and can be reinforced within a week.

 

If they were smart, a force marched from Tarabon, out of Almoth, a week before the attack was launched. There is nothing to stop that force from being sent. So, they have forces holding the heart of the city, and re-inforcements within a week to two weeks. The city becomes the nut.

 

 

Wait a second, I'm confused. On page 3 you say that "i dont see the Seanchan having ever planned to try and hold the city. Their forces are too small." Yet here you seem to be saying that if they were smart they would have planned to hold the city. Lacking a plan in advance, how to you propose that the seanchan are going to safetly get their to'raken away, rest them, scramble a new force of reinforcements, supply them, and safely fly them past the now forewarned rebels? Or how about this little nugget?

 

 

Wait, this wouldn't be one of those things were reading is helpful, would it? Let me simplify it for you.

 

No hold city. Force too small. Hold Tower. Force large enough.

 

 

 

Quote:

If the rebels hadn't been there, they could have sat in the tower and easily repulsed any sort of counter-attack the city had to offer, and when their reinforcements arrived, the city would have fallen with ease.

 

 

Which is it, will their forces be too small, or will they be able to easily repulse any counter attack?

 

Reading good. Reading help not make as$ of self.

 

They have a force which is numerical too small to hold or take a city as large as Tar Valon, but they do have the firepower in those numerically limited numbers to hold an area like the Tower, even against an army with all those advantages you have... at least for a time.

 

Quote:

Even if no land based force was sent, which i think is silly, Tarabon was as safe as Seandar when the decision would have been made, and even if it weren't, the Seanchan have other resources to deal with that, and the attack on the tower would have gone forward anyway--but even if no land force was sent, air based reinforcements are only two weeks away.

 

 

So by page 5 you are saying that it would have been silly for the Seanchan not to have sent a landbased force against Tar Valon. Yet you said this when you started the "Will Lan reach Tarwin's Gap in time thread.

 

Quote:

Lan begins at World's End somewhere between five and seven days after the Cleansing. Based on Interuldes comments he has somewhere around 1,600 miles to cross, and he has followers to gather. Now even if they he just rides through, finds them on their horses, and joins him, its going to delay him. Best case scenario considering the horses involved, he would be able to manage 30 miles a day. It should be much less (for those interested in the logistics of horse travel i posted it in the 'The Shadow Comes to Tar Valon' thread) but lets say 30. Thats 10 days per 300 miles. So altogether he would be arriving at Fal Moran at around midday on the 54th day.

 

 

Assuming that the Seanchan would be no faster than the speed you cite, why would it be silly for the seanchan not to have sent a landbased army to Tar Valon? Should they have sent an army 54 days ago across Murandy, Andor, or both, just in case they decided to try and hold Tar Valon? Should they have done this, even if they never planned to hold the city and their ultimate goal was just to collar Aes Sedai?

 

Yes, brilliant work cloglord. I concede everything and surrender. I mean, lets forget that that post was actually phrased as a question reguarding peoples opinions on how realistic we could trust RJ to be with travel time. Lets ignore the presense of other people travelling equal distances in the turn of a page, or in the background.

 

Come on puppy, that whole thread dealt with the varience between realistic travel times and travel times listed in the books. In point of fact, i started that thread because of your very astute comment in the Tar Valon thread reguarding just that. My conclusion, as long as we are picking comments out of context is this, we cannot say. Simple as that.

 

Now, i think it would have been silly for the Seanchan not to have sent a supporting landforce accross the Caralain Grass to supplement the air invasion. I suspect that force was dispatched as much as a month before the air force was, meaning around 50 days (rough estimate) will have passed since the time it was dispatched and the time the assault begins.

 

Now you tell me that you think RJ hasn't moved forces as far as that in that time. Hell, the Aiel made it from Rhuidean to Cairhein in less then a month, and thats a comprable distance. Perrins force reached Dumai's Wells in four days. Tuon travelled between Malveine Gap and Ebou Dar in the turn of a page.

 

Most telling, the Borderlanders travelled from the borderlands to Andor in the space of one book. A comprable distance through the EXACT same land with a roughly similar starting point.

 

So no, i do not have issues with the suggestion that RJ could have a Seanchan land force arriving soon after the air force. In fact, for the purposes of setting up supply dumps for that air force to use in its trip i would almost suggest that it is nessasary.

 

But hey, you keep pulling comments out of context, addressing them in a contemptuos manner, and think you are making a point.

 

Assuming that the Seanchan would be no faster than the speed you cite, why would it be silly for the seanchan not to have sent a landbased army to Tar Valon? Should they have sent an army 54 days ago across Murandy, Andor, or both, just in case they decided to try and hold Tar Valon? Should they have done this, even if they never planned to hold the city and their ultimate goal was just to collar Aes Sedai?

 

Murandy... Andor...? I'm sorry, i may have missed my geography lessons, but did someone move them since last i looked? The Dark One, i suspect.

 

Caralain Grass. Black Hills. Most unpopulated place on the planet.

 

Also, I said the airial force never planned to hold the city. Say it with me cloglord. Air Force not strong enough to take city.

 

The ultimate goal is to leash Aes Sedai. Conquering Tar Valon, holding the heart of Aes Sedai power, thats all nifty bonuses, but if you hadn't been pulling things out of context you know that i was speaking to their need. Their driving social need, indeed social obligation, is to leash the Aes Sedai. It is something their culture is steeped in, the memories of the Armies of Night. It is the basis and the main point of this assault, not the only one.

 

Quote:

That force can hold Tar Valon... it can be self sustaining.

 

Now it can hold without reinforcements? It just gets better and better.

 

Air Force not hold city. Air Force hold Tower. Use Air Force to aid land force in conquering of city. Combined air landforce sufficient to hold city.

 

Also, for those who care about context, cloglord joined one comment about the air forces ability to hold the city against the rebels, and a comment about the sustainability of the Seanchan air and land forces once they had defeated the Rebels so far away from the rest of seanchan held lands.

 

You know, your right, im positively loving this. Does that make me a bad person?

 

Okay, now on to page 6. You say,

Quote:

They can maintain what they conquer as long as they have set up their forces right, and the fact that they have been planning this for months makes it very likely that they have set up their forces right.

 

Sending a land baced force through the Caralain Grass, setting up supply dumps for the to'raken force as they travel. Landing the to'raken and taking Tower, having the the Tower based force launch an internal attack as the land based force launch an external based assault to take the city in full.

 

 

Now, not only do they plan to conquer and maintain, but they have already planned their reinforcements, and set them up throughout the Carlain Grass. Apparently, Seanchan intelligence and planning is great enough to see the need for reinforcements and an external attack to support the internal attack. If Seanchan planning is this good, why don't they seem to know that the rebels are there? Don't you think they would have sent at least one raken to fly over and check things out, before the To-Raken started landing? Wouldn't they have noticed the giant besieging army?

 

So, which is it? Is it a raid, or is it a giant sidestepping, backpeddling, justification for a personal theory? Sorry, you asked for it.

 

Or perhaps a personal attack because you cant understand that i dont fall at your feet worshiping your undoubtably superior wisdom... oh wait, thats your post.

 

I think ive been clear enough. You no longer have any right to expect me to take you seriously.

 

To those who had to read this, i apologise, and give you my promise that i wont be responding to his posts again. I just want it on the record that my silence is not the lack of a position.

[Phiotr AlManera]

Chill guys

[Luckers]

As i said, i apologise. I know that was an unpleasent exchange.

[Phiotr AlManera]

The fact that Ryma fell down when Sherraine called to her implies to me at least some participation.

 

More specifically though we have seen two damane linked to one sul'dam. If need be that presents the methodological manner in which links equalling that the Aes Sedai achieve can be arranged.

 

And yes' date=' the Seanchan do know how to link, even if you think they didn't before. They have had Aes Sedai for some time, and clearly would have pressed them on weaves that could give Aes Sedai a tactical advantage. And Pura and Meilyn at least would have been forthcoming. These people are not stupid. They will have planned for this when planning the assault.[/quote']

I'm not quite sure I understand what you're saying here. Can't 13 pairs (or 6) go like, hey, let's form a circle?

[Luckers]

I'm not sure i understand your question. The Seanchan know of linking, through history or through Aes Sedai--if not initially then certainly following events in PoD. They can link women through having a singular sul'dam, for all that that womans arms would get crowded. We have evidence suggesting they can link damane anyway.

[RobertAlexWillis]

They can link women through having a singular sul'dam, for all that that womans arms would get crowded. We have evidence suggesting they can link damane anyway.

 

I don't want to get in the middle of this ... but I do have a purely logistical question.

 

Do we KNOW that one sul'dam can wear more than one bracelet at a time? Escpecially a conventional a'dam?

 

The a'dam seems awfully specialized. It is not just a normal link, because the leash holder doesn't add any strength. Expecting it to act like a normal link, or be as flexible as one, may turn out to be inaccurate.

 

I guess I'm asking: do we have an example of this happening? Or a sul'dam saying it can be done? I can't think of one. I can't remember damane ever being linked.