[Game thread]Magic The Gathering

[Eldrick4221]

not a shocker but links on the front page imply game will go at least until d5 aka there are 3 scum whatever BFG is

This is gaming the mod and a horrible assumption. It's much more likely that Sooh is just being prepared.

 

If there are 3 scum and we lynch one today and one tomorrow, we win on d4.

[Eldrick4221]

 

You made all this up because I called you out D1. Your reveal is confusing at best and shady af. Your timing just makes it worse. No you're going to omgus me for voting you. LOL.

I feel like you're just stating things without presenting reasons.

Ok. Marking this as the point that you start to move against DPR

[Eldrick4221]

 

 

Concerns I have:

Why F~anything rather than a phase?

?possibly leans more to the 'sole winner' than '3p with any alignment' win con?

You say you were shot/know this? Suggesting extra powers? (contradicts bold above)

 

 

Ok let me just lay it all out on this:

 

Here's what I think, knowing that BFG as a highly logical player who isn't going to take stupid risks and knowing what's normal in a game.

I think the F6 thing is probably BS.  I'm not going to rule it out, especially because Sooh is privy to plenty of out-of-game chatter about how Survivors have an unfairly difficult wincon, but it's still highly uncommon.

I think she's a plain old Survivor. I think she's going to town-side today and if she's wrong then scum side tomorrow, if she's right then aim to eliminate the scum before F6 gets here. I think she is being honest about eating the N1 shot, thus believing that scum think she might be doc and will shoot at her again eventually.  She needed to claim to preserve herself from the night kill so she forfeited one phase in exchange for a claim that from any logical perspective ought to be allowed to live for the next two days.  A regular old Survivor wins at F6 if we lynch w/w or if we lynch v/v.  She's going to aim for v/v today and whichever of the two she needs tomorrow depending on today's flip.

 

Claiming what she claimed as SK is game-throwing and as scum in a basic game is incredibly stupid unless the set-up is uniquely suited for it.  The only scenario I can think of that has probability at least on par with the F6 element of her claim to actually exist is if she gains a 1x shot on N4.  But that only happens if town has a doc, and I don't believe it does at this point.

 

Because if town had a doc they should have claimed by now to eliminate a wolf, because the odds of them successfully blocking two shots (one will not buy us an extra lynch) are radically lower than the benefit we would gain by killing a wolf today.

 

I thought for a time that DPR was doc and that he was going all gung-ho at BFG because he knew she was scum but didn't want to out himself.  That was where my head was at last night when I said we're never lynching outside of BFG/DPR today.

 

And then I remembered the cop died, which only happens if 1) the doc was an idiot and protected someone else or 2) a scum roleblocker somehow identified the doc with enough confidence to block there over the cop or 3) scum and doc both identified the cop N1, doc can't protect the same target two nights in a row (Sooh has implemented this role mod before).

 

Still makes it less likely for there to be a doc, but I wasn't going to rule it out.  DPR's reaction to my cryptic spec last night (I did skim some of the posts I haven't properly read yet) confirms for me that he's not a doc, and his content since has been awful besides.  He's probably a wolf going for an easy non-town lynch and playing weasel when he took some backlash for it.  But if a doctor exists in this game to confirm that BFG is lying, I highly encourage you just claim it and we take this game to 6/1.

 

 

Post that got me into shad's case. Checking to see if his suspicion of dpr matches with when he stopped thinking dpr was doc.

[Cass]

 

Tinfoil on BFG still exists. The non-Town claim fits the off feeling I had about her in Hackers, no idea yet what exactly it is. I'm no further along with her than yesterday, when I shared concerns her role could be independent winner/scum rather than the way she paints it as Town aligned.

She's playing a game of appeasement.

 

No, there can be a protective role that failed their protection

 

And any roles shouldn't out

Stuff like this.

 

It reeks of "I know any mention of revealing will be perceived as scummy by some people so I'm going to just say no."

 

Town!BFG thinks it out. Maybe draws the same conclusions but doesn't just state it like that.

 

She's not town siding in the sense of approaching the game post-claim as if she might as well have randed villager.

 

She's not really being opportunistic irt anyone else either besides trying to avoid eye contact, there's just no wind in these sails.

 

I don't believe there's some super bizarre mechanic in a basic game that allows scum to win at F6 and she holds an uncountered explanation for the lack of a kill N1, above and beyond the obvious improbability that she drops a claim like this out of the blue without major suspicion as a wolf.

 

 

 

If I'm reading this correctly, your points are

 

She's not Town/Playing like Town-aligned 3P.

 

She's not Scum.

 

 

Ok? Same same as my initial bold? 

[Eldrick4221]

Hi Cass :D

[Eldrick4221]

We're not lynching outside of BFG/DPR today.

Here is the post he mentions. The post he justifies by thinking dpr was doc and calling bfg out.

no that doesn't add up cause the cop died

  

I guess it technically could

  <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote' data-author="Shad_" data-cid="3806097" data-time="1497248453">Shad_, on 11 Jun 2017 - 11:20 PM, said:<p>.....I'm just going to revisit this whole thought process when I can process thought. He seems to reconsider a few mins later, then he drops a vote on dpr, planning to process it when he's sober.I don't get why he felt the need to explain it the way he did. I don't get why he brought up doc claiming to out bfg, because it wouldn't.But his push on dpr really gets going after his remembering that the cop is dead and therefore doc is unlikely. So this matches up with what he said.

[Eldrick4221]

>.>

[Eldrick4221]

Stupid broken tags

[Eldrick4221]

So he wasn't trying to lynch who he thought was the doc. That's fine.

 

He spent a lot of time talking about getting the doc to reveal to out bfg as a wolf. This is an unreasonable scenario and reads to me as just trying to get the doc to reveal.

 

He also didn't get involved with the city lynch, as I mentioned before.

 

My vote stays.

[Eldrick4221]

So he wasn't trying to lynch who he thought was the doc. That's fine.

He spent a lot of time talking about getting the doc to reveal to out bfg as a wolf. This is an unreasonable scenario and reads to me as just trying to get the doc to reveal.

He also didn't get involved with the cuth lynch, as I mentioned before.

My vote stays.

.....

*teaches my tablet "cuth"*

[Cass]

Ok I mostly skimmed through posts from today and plan to go back. Before that I wanted to say real quick that during night phase me and Kronos were discussing taking a real close look at the non voters for last night phase. Eldrick took the alf spot and Shad saved that spot, in a way and right at the last second. I think that is worth another look. I will not be around as much until late tonight. I will be a little until around 2pm but after that I have to get ready and drive my boys to my sister's. I am going to go see Metalica has an early birthday gift. So Kronos will probably be around more than me.

 

 

Where did you guys get with this?

 

Thoughts on Shad-Alf/Eldrick now?

 

 

What did you both make of each of the other non-voters?

[Eldrick4221]

 

Vote count:

 

Dice (2): Killanos, Adella

 

BFG (2): DPR, Dice

 

DPR (2): BFG, Shad,

 

Shad (2): Shanti, Eldrick

 

Not voting (1): Cass

 

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

 

No pressure, eh cass?

[Eldrick4221]

I think its probably safe to assume that the scum aren't both on the same train right now.

 

It's possible, but very unlikely.

[Eldrick4221]

Also, because 4/9 players have a train, it's likely at least one of them is scum.

[WolfbrotherKronos]

 

@Killa/Kronos, can you explain the bold below/what theory you were working on?

 

Cuth I feel like your read of me and Kronos is not genuine and only comes because of our vote. Which is fine. We had good reasons for voting you. We had a theory about who was the cop and did not want to out anyone if we where right or wrong. Talking to much about why you bordered that. Its not as if I or Kronos ever had your slot as quasi questionable.

 

I am hoping this shakes down the way we assume it will.

@Killa, what do you mean by 'not as if ... ever had your slot as quasi questionable?'

 

 

This was the reads list you gave previously

Tig I will give you a quick run down until I can sit at my laptop and run through quotes and shiz.

 

Shad has dropped from town to null. He could have just made a bad call on the vote but the lack of activity when he was so full steam before is meh. Not enough to make him scum to me but also not great. The keyboard thing could be legit though.

 

Still nothing from DPR so I got nothing there other than trepidation. Lol

 

I would like to see Cass and BFG thought s but they still sit in my townie pile from yesterday.

 

Shanti you put yourself as top town haha but I would not put you as high on mine. Still town but not at the tip top.

 

Cuthnyn is the same as yesterday. Cuth reads null/possible town and nyn reads ... Well nyn. She is a wild card at best.

 

I am still hopeful about town tig.

 

Dice is pretty middle of the road null with a side of tinfoil.

 

Alf is somewhat suspect at this point. Low activity and it feels more like slanking than busy because I did not see (but maybe missed) an explanation.

 

I dont know where to put Adella. She started off good but I get a funny feeling about her at times. I am waiting and watching to see what she says and does next.

I thought that shanti was cop based on her 100% comment

[Cass]

*Kicks DM*

 

 

Hi Cass :D

 

 

 

Vote count:

Dice (2): Killanos, Adella

BFG (2): DPR, Dice

DPR (2): BFG, Shad,

Shad (2): Shanti, Eldrick

Not voting (1): Cass

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

No pressure, eh cass?

 

 

 

Bite me/Hey Eld :wub:/Are you scum?

 

 

 

Are you though?

 

 

 

Can you chuck out a full list of reads? / Where are you at on Dice now/why vote Shad over him if you think both are wolfy?

 

Where are you at with DPR? I see you questioning him/noting him ?deliberately not answering questions from others, but saying his stance on BFG is Town aligned?

[Eldrick4221]

Shad. On the off chance you are town, I want to understand your pov.

 

Sell me on dpr. Why is he scum?

[WolfbrotherKronos]

 

Ok I mostly skimmed through posts from today and plan to go back. Before that I wanted to say real quick that during night phase me and Kronos were discussing taking a real close look at the non voters for last night phase. Eldrick took the alf spot and Shad saved that spot, in a way and right at the last second. I think that is worth another look. I will not be around as much until late tonight. I will be a little until around 2pm but after that I have to get ready and drive my boys to my sister's. I am going to go see Metalica has an early birthday gift. So Kronos will probably be around more than me.

 

Where did you guys get with this?

 

Thoughts on Shad-Alf/Eldrick now?

 

 

What did you both make of each of the other non-voters?

We didn't really get to talk about it much. Killa was at a concert and busy most of yesterday. Between work and rehearsals it's been hard for me to keep up.

[DPR]

 

 

@Adella are you still leaning DPR as your biggest scum atm? If not then who is?

 

@BFG same question to you.

 

@DPR same question

 

Sorry everything is all jumbled for me trying to read back through.

 

Cass where are you standing?

 

I'm not really leaning toward myself as my biggest scum. I mean, I'm good - but I'm not that good.

 

You settled after throwing your fit?

I love how you answered the first question, but not the more important second one.

 

 

 

You're joking here, right? 

 

Nobody is unclear on my views. Shanti had just yelled at me for not changing them...

 

Also, "the more important second" question is somewhat confusing in and of itself - how exactly is Adella supposed to know who is still leaning toward me? 

[Eldrick4221]

Shad over dice. I have them as scum equally, but not as a team. I like the idea of keeping the trains tied.

 

I have dpr as town. Do believe I've already said that. While we don't agree on some points, I get where he's coming from and he seems to be trying to solve.

 

Dice I have as scum because of his treatment of nyn vs his treatment of Shad with the knowledge of nyn being scum.

 

Shad I have as scum because of his attempt to get the doc to reveal, and because of his treatment of cuth's train. He acknowledged that that's where the day was going, but didn't really seem like he wanted it to.

 

I agree on Shanti being town because of the spat between her and nyn. Her mentioning that she's town all over the place and her overly aggressive approach to the game are annoying, but not scummy.

 

I haven't looked too much into Adella. I have her as town because nyn said she was getting tigs and adella mixed up, and that's a weird thing to say about a teammate.

 

Bfg is a non-issue. She's either Survivor like she says or she's scum we'll eventually catch. Like I said, if we mislynch today, she's the lynch tomorrow. Can't risk losing because she pops out at f5 and we are 2/2

 

You i am horrible at reading so I havent tried yet.

 

Killanos I don't have a read on. I'll worry about them if need be later.

[Eldrick4221]

 

 

 

@Adella are you still leaning DPR as your biggest scum atm? If not then who is?

 

@BFG same question to you.

 

@DPR same question

 

Sorry everything is all jumbled for me trying to read back through.

 

Cass where are you standing?

I'm not really leaning toward myself as my biggest scum. I mean, I'm good - but I'm not that good.

 

You settled after throwing your fit?

I love how you answered the first question, but not the more important second one.

 

You're joking here, right?

 

Nobody is unclear on my views. Shanti had just yelled at me for not changing them...

 

Also, "the more important second" question is somewhat confusing in and of itself - how exactly is Adella supposed to know who is still leaning toward me?

More important in the sense that the first question was about you, ergo not important for you to answer.

[DPR]

 

 

 

 

@Adella are you still leaning DPR as your biggest scum atm? If not then who is?

 

@BFG same question to you.

 

@DPR same question

 

Sorry everything is all jumbled for me trying to read back through.

 

Cass where are you standing?

I'm not really leaning toward myself as my biggest scum. I mean, I'm good - but I'm not that good.

 

You settled after throwing your fit?

I love how you answered the first question, but not the more important second one.

 

You're joking here, right?

 

Nobody is unclear on my views. Shanti had just yelled at me for not changing them...

 

Also, "the more important second" question is somewhat confusing in and of itself - how exactly is Adella supposed to know who is still leaning toward me?

More important in the sense that the first question was about you, ergo not important for you to answer.

 

 

 

But a golden opportunity for snarkery, and that you cannot deny. 

[Eldrick4221]

Shad over dice. I have them as scum equally, but not as a team. I like the idea of keeping the trains tied.

 

I have dpr as town. Do believe I've already said that. While we don't agree on some points, I get where he's coming from and he seems to be trying to solve.

 

Dice I have as scum because of his treatment of nyn vs his treatment of Shad with the knowledge of nyn being scum.

 

Shad I have as scum because of his attempt to get the doc to reveal, and because of his treatment of cuth's train. He acknowledged that that's where the day was going, but didn't really seem like he wanted it to.

 

I agree on Shanti being town because of the spat between her and nyn. Her mentioning that she's town all over the place and her overly aggressive approach to the game are annoying, but not scummy.

 

I haven't looked too much into Adella. I have her as town because nyn said she was getting tigs and adella mixed up, and that's a weird thing to say about a teammate.

 

Bfg is a non-issue. She's either Survivor like she says or she's scum we'll eventually catch. Like I said, if we mislynch today, she's the lynch tomorrow. Can't risk losing because she pops out at f5 and we are 2/2

 

Cass i am horrible at reading so I havent tried yet.

 

Killanos I don't have a read on. I'll worry about them if need be later.

Changed "you" to "cass" for the sake of anyone else that wants to use my reads list.

[Eldrick4221]

But a golden opportunity for snarkery, and that you cannot deny.

Not even trying to. I liked your answer.

[DPR]

Skimmed to 1700 here from where I was yesterday.

 

 

 

Feeling like the BFG/setup debate has been pushed ad nauseum and to the distraction of further scum-hunting. 

I feel like the TLDR version is:

 

BFG has made a claim to be not-Town.

Town never makes that claim, it's possible she's Scum/3P but ?more likely she's 3p.

That is not likely to be an imminent threat to Town.

 

 

There's an argument for lynching BFG

- She's claimed not Town - Town never makes that claim. She either wins with Town/independently or she is scum. 

- I don't trust that she wins with Town

 

There's an argument for not lynching BFG 

- If her claim is true, mafia most need to lynch BFG here.

 

 

 

 

DPR's primary focus is lynching BFG.

Shad's primary focus is lynching DPR.

 

Shad and DPR are going hammer and tongs over mechanics/BFG related chat. Possibly passion, possibly wolfy on either/both parts, distracting and circular either way.

 

 

Cass (or anybody really), why the bold? Seems like the exact opposite to me - As scum, I leave BFG on the board FTW. Please explain.

 

I'd also like to add a bit of perspective re the rest of the game. 

 

* I don't feel like anything has been pushed "ad nauseum". To me, things have progressed at a fairly normal and unexcited pace and the people pushing for emo overload are just trying to paint a narrative.

 

* Shad's emo is unnecessary and is exactly what I describe above. He's not worried about people agreeing with him - he's a statistician ffs. He's trying to push a lynch and frustrated because he can't pull it off.

 

* I mentioned Shanti throwing a fit. It was in regard to her post toward me chastising me for not moving my vote to Shad right away. For clarity, my comment to her that she should relax speaks to the fact that I've seen good players fuzz up their own radar with too much emo, and I saw her stepping into this territory. It should be avoided. Common sense dictates that I'll move my vote out of self preservation, but we still have plenty of time for discussion and that is what will benefit Town the most.

 

* Given that we have 4 trains all tied at 2 votes, I think it's fair to say that there is a bit of uncertainty lingering... Uncertainty leads to mislynches. I see postings asking players to imagine their leans are town instead of scum, but consider this instead: don't imagine anything. Go with what you know. Lynch the admitted non-town player and increase town's odds of hitting scum tomorrow - it's just that simple. 

 

I'm here for a bit to answer q's.