[Advanced] Old West Mischief Mafia - Town Wins!

The Crusher · February 16, 2017

Okay, so here are some thoughts that I started on last night and added to this morning.

I was trying to find that wagon analysis that Seph posted earlier - I'm almost certain that seph posted this - starting back from when he, cuth, and eldrick dropped off our train and other people started suddenly piling on.

As I was lying in bed not able to sleep because I was thinking about mafia this morning, I was pondering this. And it made me take back my town read on DPR.

Because, imagine this. Say you're the members of the scum team. You've basically been coasting all game day because most of the focus has been on one main slot (me/mrsclov of course) and you've got a handy backup lynch on the side (Eldrick) in case the first wagon goes sideways at some point.

Town is doing a good job for you of keeping your focus there. All you have to do is keep on repeating how scummy that first wagon is, because that's pretty much the consensus in the crowd. And if you keep repeating the same things and ignoring the clarifications that you're given, you can keep that wagon on it's heels all game and say "see? they're not doing anything but defending themselves. total self-serving scum" (because town would never defend itself against a mislynch, of course ::P)

But hey wait a minute. These town patsies who were leading the wagon are actually starting to explore things with the easy lynchbait. Now they're starting to have doubts and actually consider other options. That easy lynch is no longer looking so easy, and your first and backup wagon are supporting each other, even though you were hoping to set them at each other's throats....people will stop being distracted and start looking elsewhere. Not good!

So what do you do? You push the attention back onto the distraction. You keep repeating the same mantras from earlier in the thread and ignore any progression in teh discussion since then. When you get called out on that, you just keep repeating that Miss Kizzy Clov is for certain scum and all their explanations/questions are bad and just shouldn't be listened to. Keep repeating it in hopes that people will keep the focus there, Miss Kizzy Clov will keep focusing on defending themselves, and no one bothers to look elsewhere.

So who was really invested in keeping the attention on MrsClov/me after Cuth, Seph, and Eldrick unvoted us and started to shift the conversation elsewhere?

Darthe is already a given. Notbob as well. But also look at what Crusher and DPR were doing at that point in the thread onwards. Tinker is always going to be floating in this pool for me because he basically did nothign but vote us and then try to undermine Seph's attempts to explore other options that weren't us/eldrick after the wagon on NotBob started building.

here are some of my observations:

From Darthe - remember to track his read on NotBob [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756157[/size]I don’t like this post from Crusher. Especially “I’m trying to convince myself it’s because he’s not reading)”. Wagon on us is declining, wagon on notbob is building: [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756165[/size]All of a sudden DPR is cooperative: [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756174[/size]Darthe switches over to NotBob after DPR does - it’s like they’ve decided to give up in their scum QT: [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756177[/size]Kronos’s explanation feels the most natural: [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756196[/size]Seph’s post flip reads list: [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756263[/size]Why did darthe move his vote to notbob if he thought we were scum too? Why not keep it a tie between scum? [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756264[/size]Good obs by seph re: DPR’s response to crusher[/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756265[/size]Darthe tries to redirect attention from him and crusher to eldrick when talking to seph: [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756286[/size]How does darthe know crusher’s alignment?: [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756286[/size]Dice before the flip will only vote us or Eldrick[/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756121[/size]But then refuses to consider seph’s plea to switch to eldrick saying he’s going to bed[/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756129[/size]DPR encouraging seph’s case on eldrick and pushing away from notbob (ignoring previous cases already made on notbob)[/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756141[/size]Tinker also redirecting towards eldrick away from notbob[/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756147[/size]DPR wanting to lynch us for information - eldrick for information - not concerned about lynching for scum. Similar to previous statement I bolded where he basically said our alignment didn’t matter to him [/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756153[/size]Maybe he’s just being helpful...but maybe this is the point at which the scum team really starts worrying about the shift in wagons and they know they have to make a decision soon[/size]http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/100047-advanced-old-west-mischief-mafia-n1/?p=3756155[/size]

Also notice that DPR backed off telling me how terrible I am after I started reading him as town?

I've already stated other observations in the thread regarding Crusher, so take those into consideration as well.

You have a very odd way of trying to tell people what they should think. You accused me of only once trying to find your alignment out by questioning. Yet, most of this is nothing more than you trying to steer everyone away from Clovis and onto those suspecting you. How does this help find out people alignments? More like a sales pitch.

Also you would 100% be an informative lynch. I do not like linking players early but if Clovis and Seph are not of the same alignment I would be shocked, Pushing very similar agenda. Does anyone know these players better than I do? Not at all basically.

Ummm....we're town. We should be steering people to suspect us? (that was to the bold).

I wasn't trying to tell people what to think. I'm telling people what I noticed and what I think they should pay attention to. The same way you were telling people what ot think of me/MrsClov yesterday.

But let's not get bogged down into "no, you're the poopy head kind of games"

It's weird to me that you choose to phrase it that way, but yes: I'm pretty confident that Seph is the same alignment as us. We're both town.

What are you?

And not to tell you what to think *cough* but I find it best practice when one is town to lynch for scum. That's the best information. We already have information from two flips and we're not even halfway through d2. What are your thoughts based on the information we already have? What are you going to do to dig up more? You seem to spend most of your time commenting on what other people should or shouldn't do and not a lot of time doing stuff yourself...

No. You're the poopy head.

:crying:

I'm sorry. I'm the poopy head.

DPR · February 16, 2017

Re: DPR - I know he gave examples. His examples just aren't very good. I pointed out why it makes no sense if Seph/Mrsclovandme/NB are scum together, where one partner runs up a wagon on us, then drops it and then the other one revives the wagon and keeps attention on us. Especially if, as DPR claims, NB self sacrificed in the end to save our slot because we were a power role.

If we were such an important power role, NB would have found other people to focus on during the day instead of focusing on us and only us, and he wouldn't have put us in danger of being lynched in the first place AFTER interest in lynching us was declining the first time. That's the grand canyon sized hole in DPR's theory.

And sorry, I missed your explanation of how you were colouring your reads. I was just paying attention to the pretty colours :P

And as for the Iso, I was talking about eldrick doing an iso on Darthe. Then I corrected it because I remembered it was Seph who said he was doing the iso on Darthe.

But he hasn't reported on it so I guess I'm going to have to do it myself. :(

Except, of course, for post #309.

Because everyone noticed that one, which is why the train built, which is why even your scummies would have had to go along with it.

But that's just, you know, like boring facts and stuff.

The Crusher · February 16, 2017

dammit, different codes here....:cry:???

Anyway, what are your current thoughts Crusher?

I need to read everything from DPRs twilight post about Seph. Very busy today so I only glanced it in between patients today. I will read tonight after all three of my dinners and give my thoughts.

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

Re: DPR - I know he gave examples. His examples just aren't very good. I pointed out why it makes no sense if Seph/Mrsclovandme/NB are scum together, where one partner runs up a wagon on us, then drops it and then the other one revives the wagon and keeps attention on us. Especially if, as DPR claims, NB self sacrificed in the end to save our slot because we were a power role.

If we were such an important power role, NB would have found other people to focus on during the day instead of focusing on us and only us, and he wouldn't have put us in danger of being lynched in the first place AFTER interest in lynching us was declining the first time. That's the grand canyon sized hole in DPR's theory.

And sorry, I missed your explanation of how you were colouring your reads. I was just paying attention to the pretty colours :P

And as for the Iso, I was talking about eldrick doing an iso on Darthe. Then I corrected it because I remembered it was Seph who said he was doing the iso on Darthe.

But he hasn't reported on it so I guess I'm going to have to do it myself. :(

Except, of course, for post #309.

Because everyone noticed that one, which is why the train built, which is why even your scummies would have had to go along with it.

But that's just, you know, like boring facts and stuff.

DPR. Sugarpuff. When I said "try again" i meant "Try better."

The boring stuff and facts was that our train was declining when NB joined. Cuth, Seph, and Eldrick were actually engaging us about the issue and trying to figure out where we were coming from. Cuth moved off our train, encouraged Seph to get off, and then Eldrick left too.

So it makes sense for NB to then start helping to rebuild our train? And if he's the better bus on our team, why wouldn't our team try to bus him BEFORE our train rebuilt again rather than waiting to near end of day to move the bus onto him?

Try again :wink:

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

dammit, different codes here....:cry:???

Anyway, what are your current thoughts Crusher?

I need to read everything from DPRs twilight post about Seph. Very busy today so I only glanced it in between patients today. I will read tonight after all three of my dinners and give my thoughts.

Okay. I know I sound like I'm beating a dead horse (sorry Silver!) but please give your thoughts on Darthe's eod/start of night as well.

And...three dinners? Are you a hobbit? :shocked:

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

damn codes :sad:

Wildfire Sedai · February 16, 2017

RANDOM THOUGHTS: these are all things that I randomly put together as I was catching up over the last couple of days. There should be more but I got side tracked a lot. Gives you a look into my mind. o.O

I think cuth can be scum cause of this:

Cuth, on 12 Feb 2017 - 11:19 AM, said:

eldrick and seph are town

i ~guarantee you this

Leads me to believe it was TMI. Because of this I believe 1 of/or both eldrick/seph can be scum. There is one other possibility which I will not discuss but is keeping him out of my WTL for now. same with eldrick/seph atp.

********************************************************

I THINK SEPH AND CUTH COULD BE MAFIA TOGETHER BECAUSE OF THE UNVOTE OF LIZA/MC. MAYBE ~ this was d1 thinking cause I had liz/mc as partial scum in my head but left it out of thread because I thought there could be a better option, now I am wondering as dpr has made a good couple of points about them and seph.

********************************************************

So far i have a small voice saying this tone is like that perc game but i have a bigger one saying scum power role --- DICE TALKING ABOUT LIZ/MC

then there is this. I know it was d1 but it's still relevant.

*********************************************************

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

Okay for reference - so we're all referring to the same facts and stuff - I'm reposting the voting spreadsheet prepared by my amazing hydra partner. I noticed she updated it for today already too.

snip

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

RANDOM THOUGHTS: these are all things that I randomly put together as I was catching up over the last couple of days. There should be more but I got side tracked a lot. Gives you a look into my mind. o.O

I think cuth can be scum cause of this:

Cuth, on 12 Feb 2017 - 11:19 AM, said:

eldrick and seph are town

i ~guarantee you this

Leads me to believe it was TMI. Because of this I believe 1 of/or both eldrick/seph can be scum. There is one other possibility which I will not discuss but is keeping him out of my WTL for now. same with eldrick/seph atp.

********************************************************

I THINK SEPH AND CUTH COULD BE MAFIA TOGETHER BECAUSE OF THE UNVOTE OF LIZA/MC. MAYBE ~ this was d1 thinking cause I had liz/mc as partial scum in my head but left it out of thread because I thought there could be a better option, now I am wondering as dpr has made a good couple of points about them and seph.

********************************************************

So far i have a small voice saying this tone is like that perc game but i have a bigger one saying scum power role --- DICE TALKING ABOUT LIZ/MC

then there is this. I know it was d1 but it's still relevant.

*********************************************************

But what do you think of the fact that cuth and seph were basically responsible for NB getting lynched? If in your scenario Darthe is town, why not flip the lynch onto him isntead of a teammate who was basically flying under the radar up until then?

And you've been at perc? What's your username there?

MrsClov · February 16, 2017

Okay for reference - so we're all referring to the same facts and stuff - I'm reposting the voting spreadsheet prepared by my amazing hydra partner. I noticed she updated it for today already too.

*edited with Mod's Permission*

Try this instead. An attached image below and if you click on it it'll bring up the image.

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

Okay for reference - so we're all referring to the same facts and stuff - I'm reposting the voting spreadsheet prepared by my amazing hydra partner. I noticed she updated it for today already too.

snip

Did this wrong. MrsClov can you redo it?

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

I do think WiFi is town though...

MrsClov · February 16, 2017

Dang it. I was trying to actually post the image and hit the wrong button. Sorry, here it is. Click on it and the image will pop up. Everyone can see what post someone unvoted or voted.

DPR · February 16, 2017

DPR. Sugarpuff. When I said "try again" i meant "Try better."

The boring stuff and facts was that our train was declining when NB joined. Cuth, Seph, and Eldrick were actually engaging us about the issue and trying to figure out where we were coming from. Cuth moved off our train, encouraged Seph to get off, and then Eldrick left too.

So it makes sense for NB to then start helping to rebuild our train? And if he's the better bus on our team, why wouldn't our team try to bus him BEFORE our train rebuilt again rather than waiting to near end of day to move the bus onto him?

Try again

[/url]">http://http://s159.photobucket.com/user/wbvaughn/media/yo-dawg-i-heard-you-like-making-no-sense-so-i-put-some-sense-in-your-sense-so-you-could-make-sense-while-making-sense-that-f_zpsbdycdbel.jpg.html'>

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

DPR. Sugarpuff. When I said "try again" i meant "Try better."

The boring stuff and facts was that our train was declining when NB joined. Cuth, Seph, and Eldrick were actually engaging us about the issue and trying to figure out where we were coming from. Cuth moved off our train, encouraged Seph to get off, and then Eldrick left too.

So it makes sense for NB to then start helping to rebuild our train? And if he's the better bus on our team, why wouldn't our team try to bus him BEFORE our train rebuilt again rather than waiting to near end of day to move the bus onto him?

Try again

[/url]">http://

Okay, that wasn't better - but it was funnier :D

IDK if I should actually let your failure at logic convince me you're town or not....

But doesn't matter. You're not the priority for today in my eyes.

DPR · February 16, 2017

Western Mafia spread sheet Google Sheets.png Dang it. I was trying to actually post the image and hit the wrong button. Sorry, here it is. Click on it and the image will pop up. Everyone can see what post someone unvoted or voted.

I'm beginning to understand why you look so angry in your picture.

You spent time on that, didn't you.

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

Western Mafia spread sheet Google Sheets.png Dang it. I was trying to actually post the image and hit the wrong button. Sorry, here it is. Click on it and the image will pop up. Everyone can see what post someone unvoted or voted.

I'm beginning to understand why you look so angry in your picture.

You spent time on that, didn't you.

That's the facts and stuff you were calling out for, Sugarflakes.

If you want to actually solve the game rather than stick to a crackpot theory that's easily dismantled, you might want to peruse it.

Take your time. We'll all be here tomorrow. :)

MrsClov · February 16, 2017

Western Mafia spread sheet Google Sheets.png Dang it. I was trying to actually post the image and hit the wrong button. Sorry, here it is. Click on it and the image will pop up. Everyone can see what post someone unvoted or voted.

I'm beginning to understand why you look so angry in your picture.

You spent time on that, didn't you.

I'm not even remotely angry in that picture.

Yes, I did spend a great deal of time on it. Thank you for noticing.

Wildfire Sedai · February 16, 2017

But what do you think of the fact that cuth and seph were basically responsible for NB getting lynched? If in your scenario Darthe is town, why not flip the lynch onto him isntead of a teammate who was basically flying under the radar up until then?

And you've been at perc? What's your username there?

1. I think that was already mentioned: He was low on the totem pole and they were looking for deep wolf equity. Darthe likes to bus don't know about the rest of you.

2. no I haven't been at perc....don't even know what perc is??

Lizabeth · February 16, 2017

Western Mafia spread sheet Google Sheets.png Dang it. I was trying to actually post the image and hit the wrong button. Sorry, here it is. Click on it and the image will pop up. Everyone can see what post someone unvoted or voted.

I'm beginning to understand why you look so angry in your picture.

You spent time on that, didn't you.

And take note...this is what people do when they don't have a valid argument.

He could actually look at it and try to understand it. But instead he wants to dismiss it and be rude to another player to boot.

Anyway. Bored now. Hope some more people join the thread and actually contribute to a real analysis.

DPR · February 16, 2017

Western Mafia spread sheet Google Sheets.png Dang it. I was trying to actually post the image and hit the wrong button. Sorry, here it is. Click on it and the image will pop up. Everyone can see what post someone unvoted or voted.

I'm beginning to understand why you look so angry in your picture.

You spent time on that, didn't you.

I'm not even remotely angry in that picture.

Yes, I did spend a great deal of time on it. Thank you for noticing.

Maybe try a little smile next time? Look at my picture - big 'ol positive smile. It says "Hi! I'm here and ready to party!"

Okay, back to your graph. Time has been spent. What does it do?

Wildfire Sedai · February 16, 2017

I am doing my best

Wildfire Sedai · February 16, 2017

oh and mrsclov.....you don't have my vote on dricky/eldrick it was on there at eod

DPR · February 16, 2017

Western Mafia spread sheet Google Sheets.png Dang it. I was trying to actually post the image and hit the wrong button. Sorry, here it is. Click on it and the image will pop up. Everyone can see what post someone unvoted or voted.

I'm beginning to understand why you look so angry in your picture.

You spent time on that, didn't you.

And take note...this is what people do when they don't have a valid argument.

He could actually look at it and try to understand it. But instead he wants to dismiss it and be rude to another player to boot.

Anyway. Bored now. Hope some more people join the thread and actually contribute to a real analysis.

Blah, blah, blah...

Enlighten us. What does this wondrous analysis tell us?

Wildfire Sedai · February 16, 2017

actually I put it on him the night before

[Advanced] Old West Mischief Mafia - Town Wins!

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