[Advanced] Old West Mischief Mafia - Town Wins!

[BFG]

Oh yeah @Liz the dumb thoughts about Eldricks claim were that given Kronos's claim that a 3rd party killer is extremely likely and that therefore Eldrick probably included a kernel of truth in his claim, but 1 kill in 2 nights implies the chances of a SK were slim, then I decided I needed to read :p

 

@MrsClov hope you feel better soon and catch up with projects and school and stuff :)

[MrsClov]

Oh yeah @Liz the dumb thoughts about Eldricks claim were that given Kronos's claim that a 3rd party killer is extremely likely and that therefore Eldrick probably included a kernel of truth in his claim, but 1 kill in 2 nights implies the chances of a SK were slim, then I decided I needed to read :p

 

@MrsClov hope you feel better soon and catch up with projects and school and stuff :)

Thanks. Working on it. Breathing would be super cool. 

 

Are we thinking there is 1 or 2 remaining scum? 

 

Cass's reaction to Dice's reveal seemed a bit off last night, but I have no clue how to read her. It could be because she seems to be in perpetual catchup mode. 

[BFG]

[BFG]

Cass is asking questions, but doesn't seem to get anywhere with it

 

And for all the questions I don't have a clue who she wants to lynch (as of end Day 1), she explained her vote on Darthe was serious(?) but didn't seem to ask him anywhere near as many questions as you guys?

 

Eh, need to read Day 2 (will hopefully go faster since I was in the game for some of it)

 

 

Don't know how many mafia left, would guess 2, but???

[MrsClov]

Cass is asking questions, but doesn't seem to get anywhere with it

 

And for all the questions I don't have a clue who she wants to lynch (as of end Day 1), she explained her vote on Darthe was serious(?) but didn't seem to ask him anywhere near as many questions as you guys?

 

Eh, need to read Day 2 (will hopefully go faster since I was in the game for some of it)

 

 

Don't know how many mafia left, would guess 2, but???

 

Bold is kind of where I'm at with it. At first, her questions looked good, but I've no clue what they were leading to. It was kind of hard for me to track her thoughts with the massive multi quotes. I felt her thoughts kind of got lost in them. 

 

If it's two left. I have a theory, but kind of want to see how this phase develops before I put it into the thread.

[WolfbrotherKronos]

 

Cass is asking questions, but doesn't seem to get anywhere with it

 

And for all the questions I don't have a clue who she wants to lynch (as of end Day 1), she explained her vote on Darthe was serious(?) but didn't seem to ask him anywhere near as many questions as you guys?

 

Eh, need to read Day 2 (will hopefully go faster since I was in the game for some of it)

 

 

Don't know how many mafia left, would guess 2, but???

Bold is kind of where I'm at with it. At first, her questions looked good, but I've no clue what they were leading to. It was kind of hard for me to track her thoughts with the massive multi quotes. I felt her thoughts kind of got lost in them.

 

If it's two left. I have a theory, but kind of want to see how this phase develops before I put it into the thread.

It's why I wanted to ISO cass. Life happened though lol.

[MrsClov]

 

 

Cass is asking questions, but doesn't seem to get anywhere with it

 

And for all the questions I don't have a clue who she wants to lynch (as of end Day 1), she explained her vote on Darthe was serious(?) but didn't seem to ask him anywhere near as many questions as you guys?

 

Eh, need to read Day 2 (will hopefully go faster since I was in the game for some of it)

 

 

Don't know how many mafia left, would guess 2, but???

Bold is kind of where I'm at with it. At first, her questions looked good, but I've no clue what they were leading to. It was kind of hard for me to track her thoughts with the massive multi quotes. I felt her thoughts kind of got lost in them.

 

If it's two left. I have a theory, but kind of want to see how this phase develops before I put it into the thread.

It's why I wanted to ISO cass. Life happened though lol.

 

I Iso'd her a bit the other day. I'll need to find my notes I gave Liz. But There were some interesting interactions with Eldrick. They didn't seem like much originally, but post Eldrick's flip makes them intriguing especially it seems like the scum team is being bus-heavy. Which is part of my theory I mentioned. 

[BFG]

 

Cass is asking questions, but doesn't seem to get anywhere with it

 

And for all the questions I don't have a clue who she wants to lynch (as of end Day 1), she explained her vote on Darthe was serious(?) but didn't seem to ask him anywhere near as many questions as you guys?

 

Eh, need to read Day 2 (will hopefully go faster since I was in the game for some of it)

 

 

Don't know how many mafia left, would guess 2, but???

 

Bold is kind of where I'm at with it. At first, her questions looked good, but I've no clue what they were leading to. It was kind of hard for me to track her thoughts with the massive multi quotes. I felt her thoughts kind of got lost in them. 

 

If it's two left. I have a theory, but kind of want to see how this phase develops before I put it into the thread.

 

Looking forward to it :)

[Lizabeth]

@BFG what makes you so confident about Cuth being cleared?

[Darthe]

 

 

Darthe can you explain your read on Crusher?

 

He's playing differently to the mafia game I have on him, but can't draw conclusions from one game.

 

I haven't disliked him this game and think he sounds good, but why is he such a strong read?

Also Darthe?

I sure can, but not atm

Crush is a good wolf, but he isnt one thats meant to last usually. From the few times ive seen him wolf he manages to fake his tone well but he never can get over the hump of having actual conviction in his posts, which is why I dont see it here. Crush here had reads, and he stuck to them, including his early notbob read and his reads of DPR and lizclov.

 

He isnt adapting particularly well, but imo the only reason he is on the table is because people are running out of compelling, loud options and he has had a few unfortunate associations with some of those who flipped. I dont begrudge that, from either side, but its not exactly a shut down case against him.

[BFG]

@BFG what makes you so confident about Cuth being cleared?

 

I wouldn't say confident, I need to reread Day 2/3 to see how his drop in enthusiasm(?) looks in context. But his Day 1 reads really, really well. Particularly his interactions with you/NB. There are half a dozen places he could have pushed a new wagon, I don't think he'd bus for fun and giggles (said with no understanding of his game at all, other than he seems pretty logical). His reactions during Night 1 read naturally, but I'm not putting much value in that cos lol! tone.

 

 

Why did you vote him earlier?

[BFG]

 

 

 

Darthe can you explain your read on Crusher?

 

He's playing differently to the mafia game I have on him, but can't draw conclusions from one game.

 

I haven't disliked him this game and think he sounds good, but why is he such a strong read?

Also Darthe?

 

I sure can, but not atm

 

Crush is a good wolf, but he isnt one thats meant to last usually. From the few times ive seen him wolf he manages to fake his tone well but he never can get over the hump of having actual conviction in his posts, which is why I dont see it here. Crush here had reads, and he stuck to them, including his early notbob read and his reads of DPR and lizclov.

 

He isnt adapting particularly well, but imo the only reason he is on the table is because people are running out of compelling, loud options and he has had a few unfortunate associations with some of those who flipped. I dont begrudge that, from either side, but its not exactly a shut down case against him.

 

Thanks :)

[Lizabeth]

 

@BFG what makes you so confident about Cuth being cleared?

 

I wouldn't say confident, I need to reread Day 2/3 to see how his drop in enthusiasm(?) looks in context. But his Day 1 reads really, really well. Particularly his interactions with you/NB. There are half a dozen places he could have pushed a new wagon, I don't think he'd bus for fun and giggles (said with no understanding of his game at all, other than he seems pretty logical). His reactions during Night 1 read naturally, but I'm not putting much value in that cos lol! tone.

 

 

Why did you vote him earlier?

 

I posted some thoughts earlier in the day (night). And when I went back and read the parts of D2 I missed I didn't feel like those issues were cleared up.

 

I was also waiting for Kronos to say more about what was bothering him about Eldrick and Cuth because when I finally read the lead up and after math to his claim, he was saying that he was concerned about Cuth. And he was tracking Eldrick's interactions in real time.

 

I don't think he would bus for fun and giggles, and my sense is that his style of play is likely a more straightforward one, but I also don't think that the scum team is playing straight forward in this game, and whatever they did was probably not spontaneous, it was likely planned. If Eldrick hadn't flipped, I would have never suspected that he and NB would have cross bussed in that situation like they did, but they did. So I can't really clear Cuth in the weirdness of that EoD based on what I have right now.

 

MrsClov and I have a couple of theories we're considering, but I think that Cuth is one of those thread that needs to be pulled.

[Lizabeth]

@BFG

These are some of my reflections on Crusher, Cuth, and SEph, keeping in mind that this is going back to D1 in reset mode, not based on anything current in the thread. Please note that these are impressions that MrsClov and I want to follow up on, not conclusions.

Crusher - As you might be able to tell, I tend to be triggered by the way that Crusher, DPR, and Darthe sometimes talk to people. It would trigger me whether it was directed towards me or someone else, but a lot of it has been directed specifically towards me and MrsClov this game. Which is why I had to try to go through and read each of them keeping my annoyance on one side and my analysis of whether I thought they were being genuine in their thoughts on the other.

As I said before, I got to the "genuine" conclusion with Darthe and DPR at some point on D1. I've never quite gotten there with Crusher, even though he's now engaged with me quite a bit. So I've basically been trying to reflect on why he still bothers me (from a game point of view, not a personal feelings point of view). Darthe, DPR, and Crusher have all used a similar style this game at different points in terms of making general commentary about things, responding to our posts making general statements (like "that's so wolfy" "that's nonsense" or "you're always twisting things"), and not answering our questions. I've pointed that out a number of times. I think the difference between them and Crusher is that I did feel like they eventually responded in ways that made me feel like I had more specifics about what they were reacting to and made me feel like they genuinely believed what they were saying, even if I didn't agree with it.

With Crusher I've never really gotten there. And it keeps bringing me back to my last game here where Sooh was scum and I felt like she approached me in a very similar way - except that I was fooled for a bit along the way because her explanations to me of why she was doing it felt genuine, and it was only because of some things that Cory said that made me look at her again from a different angle. But with Crusher, I haven't quite gotten to the place of feeling as though he's being genuine. I've repeatedly asked him to give specific examples of the things he keeps accusing me of - such as twisting people's words and making things up. If he has, I guess I'll see it when I iso him. But neither MrsClov nor I is feeling very good about Crusher at the moment. (/inb4 he claims I'm just saying this because he's been suspecting us ;) - as I've tried to explain in my previous ramble, I don't read people as scummy or townie based on whether or not they suspect me. If you will recall, Darthe was claiming we were town at the start of D2 and I still went after him with a vengeance because I thought he was just avoiding dealing with my questions about his motivations for switching to NB. It's HOW the person suspects or clears me that I'm concerned about, not whether they suspect or clear me)

******

With seph - agh, Seph! I want to believe in Seph. I think MrsClov and I mostly do believe in Seph. The only thing that I was thinking when resetting back to D1, knowing what we now know about NotBob and Eldrick and that there was bussing going on on D1, is that people kept pointing to little concerns about Seph's process in moving from suspecting us, to defending us, to voting NB but not voting for Eldrick who he had said that he would vote for. At the time I noted it and tried to look at it from that angle but concluded that Seph must have seen what we were seeing, with Eldrick being CLEARLY coming from a town motivation ( at myself) and NB being the scummier of the two. But now looking back I'm realizing that I also dismissed a lot of things that people were pinging on about Eldrick, so I feel like we have to revisit that. If this hasn't been answered already Seph, why didn't you try to join the Eldrick train at that time given that you kept saying you'd rather lynch Eldrick?

Other little pings about Seph were that he kept saying he was going to iso people but then came back with just general statements and no actual posts or nothing at all. I'm a lazy isoer myself, so I get the not wanting to do a full iso post, but I usually throw in at least a few examples to illustrate what I'm saying. I'm not sure if it's typical for Seph to just give general statements, so maybe someone who has played with him before can clear that up.

But Seph's elation at NB flipping scum seemed genuine to me. Not sure if he can fake that because I've never seen him play as scum. But tone wise, it seemed genuine. I have to go back and find where Kronos first made his claim and busted Eldrick to see what I think of his reaction (and other people's reactions) to that reveal.

*****

Cuth - again we felt like we have to go back to the beginning and consider things in light of what we know now about Eldrick and the bussing and buddying. So we've been tossing back and forth the possibility that Cuth saw and opportunity to score town cred by moving off our wagon and then defending us and securing a lynch on NB. Because why would anybody suspect him after that? If Eldrick hadn't flipped red, I would never even question this. But Eldrick flipping red makes me question everything. And I thought it odd at the time (I had misremembered it on d1 until someone pointed it out to me), that Cuth asked Seph to get off of our train once he decided to unvote us. But he didn't ask Eldrick. Eldrick left our train on his own.

And then his response after NB's flip was "we got lucky". Which struck me as odd at the time, because I would assume that he would have picked the person he thought was scummiest to start a train on, not just roll the dice. So why would he put it down to luck rather than skill? (In contrast,Sephs' response to him struck me as very elated townie.)

And then after having such a successful d1, he wasn't really present for N1 or much of D2 (although there is a big chunk of the thread that I haven't read from D2, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong).

I think MrsClov has posted some other things that we're also exploring. But that's where I'm at right now and she's currently sleeping (I think).

[BFG]

Haha, just pulled it from your ISO

 

In general if he's scum he had one of the best start to game that I've seen, which obviously isn't to say that couldn't happen.

 

But, I'm not sure what NB was thinking, but Eldrick was going with the flow as far as I could tell (regards you at least) but seemed to resist (albeit for only a few posts) the NB train. Eldrick was slow to join that wagon (comparatively) I don't want to assume bussing just 'because'

 

My opinion may well change reading the rest of Night 1 etc though

[BFG]

Going to have to read the Kronos stuff as a priority

[BFG]

Or not lol

[Cuth]

one note with the "we got lucky" 

 

i pulled up like 5 posts and two or three weren't multiquoted the night before lynch

 

my vote had been sitting on him all day and i kept promising a case

 

when i finally did quote him at like midnight before eod i realized there wasn't much of anything solid, but it seemed off tonally

 

and not very many people were on him

 

so when i wake up the following morning, a bunch of other people voted him, and he flipped i was relieved and a little surprised

 

given that it was a weak mostly tonal case i made on d1, where lynching scum is the exception

[Cuth]

also of note watcher is not as likely now, still possibility though

 

would be able to clear out the PRs pretty quickly if used properly and not investigated in time

[Cuth]

two wolves seems likely

[Cuth]

especially given the apparent lack of any other 3p damaging roles

 

dpr has some killing power, but moderately nerfed

[BFG]

@Liz, Seph was voting Eldrick before switching to NB. Said there was no traction on Eldrick and he thought NB was scummier and wanted to save you

[BFG]

Thought I'd posted about WiFi last night, but tablet kept crashing so must have been lost :(

 

Day 1 alone, I'm actually distinctly uneasy about her, her reads/thought process seem to be distinctly linear, she wasn't particularly chatty (although that may just be from starting late). Read on Crusher seemed odd 'engaged liz/mrs Clov in conversation' but I'd say that seph and Cuth did far more of that. And paranoid me notes that the only read of Soohs that was different was a sus of WiFi.

 

Her first posts day 2 read a lot better to me and in general her engagement level increases which is tough to do when your team is dying. Would strongly suspect she's town now, but the delay in the read irks me :/

[BFG]

Cuth, why did you ask about the wolf on NBs wagon?

[BFG]

Waits patiently for Cass :)