[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[wish-tree]

Wait, what? Didn't you say Pralaya's progression on Cass made him suspect?

[wish-tree]

@Kaylee

[Kaylee]

 

 

 

 

 

Vote: KayleeCsarmi might not have been feeding me fuel, he might have been trying to persuade me off of Kaylee actually.

Kaylee's position on Csarmi could be distancing and bussing.

 

 

Explain the bold for me? In the Csarmi ISO what I gathered was he was agreeing with you, how is this 'persuading you off Kaylee'?

 

I'm still not fully across that period of the game (p.50-70ish?). 

 

I think I mentioned this conclusion earlier though. My thoughts were if they're WW both of them had everything to gain from bussing at a point where it was likely Kaylee was gaining traction and there was at least my vote and some suspicion surrounding him. At the time I also felt like Kay might be scum using the bus to buddy me.

 

At one point she claimed to be removing tinfoil from her read of me, this phase she put me straight back into contention as possible deep wolf, following Pral's suggestion I was the most likely to have bussed. Feels convenient.

 

 

 

 

Pral: your points against me are stronger for D1. What I mean is that my reads strong and I was very wishy washy. Since D2 started however, I've made solid reads considering the info we gained. I've made points/arguments why I have my reads where they are. Having me as one of your top scum reads for liking posts is weak at this point in the game. I could see if I hadn't put in any work but I have.

 

Uh? That doesn't mean anything. Just because you are scum doesn't mean that you will just pocket somebody and do nothing. Of course there will be other things also - casing, nudging etc etc. It is the small things to notice.

Incidentally, most of your "I like this" posts are usually for points against an easy lynch candidate. INitially it was Lenlo, where Pizza made a case against him. When he came out as cop, your posts were focused on Celeste and me.

It is when seen as a whole that my points make sense. Again., context matters heavily. It is not a "Oh, she likes posts and hence scum" kind of thing.

Actually, the above replies have kind of convinced me she is scum. This is not going to happen but it is here for others to see after they know my flip

[v]Kaylee[/v]

 

This reads like a villager replying to someone he actually believes is scum.

 

That doesn't mean that Kaylee's scum though. And IMO it's not enough to make Pral clear.

 

Kaylee's initial reply seems weak/generic to me but I can see her posting that as Town, vaguely remember something similar from HoC. 

 

Pral's post is more aggressive/convinced in tone than anything else I've seen of his, which fits the vote but could equally be scum aiming for a mislynch he thinks might actually gain traction.

 

 

Why Kaylee over Nolder?

 

1st blue:

 

Ok, keeping it real simple, and I'll elaborate more, a lot more, if you want>

 

Originally, Csarmi's behavior looked to me like TMI- basically, someone who knows Kaylee is a townie, and wants the points for it. I explained his quick dismissal of Kaylee as a suspect followed by him feeding me links was an attempt to be on the right side of history, while adding fuel to the fire.

 

But, there's a problem with that idea: He already made his political position on Kaylee clear, and when he gave evidence of her recent scum and town games and I only looked at the town game, and judged that one (a very old one) to be why she was scum here, he wasn't satisfied and tried to persuade me with a much more recent game.

 

What's the motive for the last part?

 

At that point he's already on the right side of history, and wagons elsewhere are stalling badly.

 

What's his motive for preventing a mislynch on Kaylee then?

 

He should just go, okay Pizza, I see your points. Maybe I'm wrong. But I still think we should go here.

 

That's so easy. Why is he still fighting me?

 

Could it have been WIFOM

 

 

 

This is as far as I got while ISO'ing Pralaya.

 

 

 

689- Points at Cass for unusual thing1348- Gives one reason why Turin is town, one reason why Nolder is town, one reason why Zander is town, no reason why Shad is town, puts me town on tone, pings at Kaylee for playing it safe, pings Celeste and Lenlo for being forced.

 

I don't like this generally, and is why Pralaya needs to be resolved this game. One reason here, one reason here, feels faked. But it could just be Pralaya's way while he's catching up. His behavior improves after this.

1349- Reads to page 30http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/96393-basicstandard-warcraft-war-of-the-ancients-mafia-day-two/page-68?do=findComment&comment=3588589

1354- says still on page 30

1619- explains town read on Turin after the claim was before the claim, and why town reading him.

 

I actually think his read on Turin could be independent of the claim, because if he's in the know, he probably has teammates keeping him up to date on stuff. Sure Csarmi wasn't paying super close attention but Zander was. And I think they had an active wolf outside of Pralaya.

1640- Still catching up.

1664- Was truthfully on Kaylee before me. For reasons I later pointed out and so did he.

 

If Kaylee is scum, this is huge for Pralaya.

1691- a limited interaction with Zander.

1693- Page 85, caught up to page 50. Kaylee/Lenlo as scum. Thinks Wish/Celeste is not wolf/wolf. Likes reasoning why Celeste is probably town.

 

Removes mislynches from our grasp, imo.

1768- Gives superficial reasons to suspect Lenlo. Still suspects Kaylee.

1815- Votes Kaylee, willing to lynch Wish or Lenlo. (Wish probably based on tally.)

 

If Kaylee is scum, this is huge.

1821- correctly notes his early push on Kaylee.

2712- Complains it is now page 136.

2714- Points out Csarmi asked to be bussed in previous games.

 

This could be TMI, but it is also null, because it's true, he would know that as either alignment, how Csarmi acts as scum.

2745- gives Nolder a really town lean for voting me. (I disagree with the reasons given, but consider the alignment possibly true anyway.)

 

Again, I don't feel like he's trying to find mislynches for us to lynch, I think he's acting to avoid mislynches.

2748- Explains why Cass could be using TMI to push Csarmi with unique reasons. Unnatural points tell, basically. Explains Cass probably bussed Csarmi.

 

Whether Cass is scum or not, I like this thought process.

2750- Links people who voted Csarmi early to people pushing on Nolder D2.

 

Again, I like that process.

2789- leaves.

2972- doubles down on Cass read.

2973- gives example of Zander distancing but not pushing Cass.

2982- puts Wish and Shad as likely town due to Zander.

2983- defends idea about Cass.

3007- tinfoils Lenlo

3048- reinforces Lenlo's claim after the claim.

3062- WTL Cass, Celeste, Laine, Kaylee. Laine and Kaylee for POE, explained Cass already.

3125- Again points to early wagon on Csarmi.

3416- Again explains Cass' reasons on Csarmi were forced. Goes into greater thinking detailhttp://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/96393-basicstandard-warcraft-war-of-the-ancients-mafia-day-two/page-171?do=findComment&comment=3591324

3421- website issues, reiterates point about how Wish is town because.

 

He's very consistent on this.

3422- explains that what Shad was saying about Zander's new bussing method applies to Cass.

 

Again, regardless of Cass' alignment this is a good look.

3423- explains that scum-lo would have claimed vig.

3424- says that Laine's WTL list is similar to his.

3425- reiterates Cass read.

3426- says he already explained this stuff, Cass.

3432- has a feeling Celeste is town despite her being in POE and her performance to date. Says Cass and Kaylee are the final 2 scums.

 

Feels like a villager's attempt to solve.

3433- In spite of my reasons why I think I could be wrong on Kaylee, Pralaya points out her game hasn't changed since Zander and Csarmi flipped, that she is simply nodding and agreeing a lot.

3434- Last will and testament- lynch Kaylee and Cass. Hardclaims vanilla.3454- Probably the best post of Pralaya's. Votes Kaylee.

3463-

 

 

 

 

 

Based on this, I'm willing to give Pralaya the gun and have his shot on Kaylee resolved.

 

Kaylee was also hunted by me hard and the reaction from the scum team was to be very skeptical.

 

 

Mindmeld with you on most of the green-blue and it was why I didn't cast vote straight after ISO.

 

Can vote Kaylee now, on the proviso I get enough time to ISO her and compare.

 

FTR, Really don't like the 'Csarmi probably bussed, will keep that in mind ... oh, Cass top suspect' part - especially when it comes after suspicion of me for pushing Zander early on. Also don't like how he hasn't acknowledged my earlier suspicion of Csarmi/how and after the flip his case on me centres around how Zander interacted with me and not the other way around.

Why are you stalling? You've said I sound scummy and I don't think I've been in your town pile. So why not consolidate and vote me? This only furthers my suspicion that you're a deep wolf.

[Shad_]

Just woke up, apparently I have a lot to read and little time to read it in.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Huh... I just think that Kaylee thinking that Cass = deep wolf would be more dangerous if they were w/w together

 

Not if they're trying to avoid Kaylee lynch today but want survival probability for the other if one dies today.

[Kaylee]

Kaylee, again, who do you think the last wolves are?

Answered this already. Geez give a gal s chance to catch up. I comment as I catch up. Been doing it that way all game

[Askthepizzaguy]

Hi Shad.

 

I might need you to hammer, just float your vote until before deadline.

 

We also might reverse it, so let's just be active and think before pulling the trigger.

 

Kaylee's remaining chance to villager tell is this hour.

[wish-tree]

Ah. Okay.

[Kaylee]

Kaylee, I feel like you're here to play ragdoll (I'm in the POE, I'm town, I'm willing to self-vote... but I'm not scum / Bluff which is lower risk than it looks due to time remaining)

 

You need to be hunting wolves D2 like you've done in every game I've seen you village in.

 

I commend you for ragdolling if you're a wolf, but it's bad villaging.

Wtf do you want? I've been here and tried. I have my reads and stick to them. I'm not ragdolling. I'm being real about it. I've fought the best I can.

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

Kaylee, again, who do you think the last wolves are?

Answered this already. Geez give a gal s chance to catch up. I comment as I catch up. Been doing it that way all game

 

 

I know full well answering in real time stops you from doing any work. I've been there as a villager.

 

You have my explicit permission to completely ignore the real-time here, and just link to your already existing work, or to reiterate where you stand.

 

Much better and more productive. There's only so much you can reasonably do in real time.

 

Hear me on this if you're a villager, Kay.

[wish-tree]

@Kaylee: Sorryyy What about Pralaya's progression on you makes you think he's town

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

Kaylee, I feel like you're here to play ragdoll (I'm in the POE, I'm town, I'm willing to self-vote... but I'm not scum / Bluff which is lower risk than it looks due to time remaining)

 

You need to be hunting wolves D2 like you've done in every game I've seen you village in.

 

I commend you for ragdolling if you're a wolf, but it's bad villaging.

Wtf do you want? I've been here and tried. I have my reads and stick to them. I'm not ragdolling. I'm being real about it. I've fought the best I can.

 

Ok.

 

Link me to the work you've already done on your top suspects, so that we can talk about it now, or at least, after your flip.

That's the most help you can be presently.

[Cass]

Pizza, I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but I'll be slightly grumpy at you for pushing me if it's wrong. I'm not stalling, I haven't got anywhere on a read of Kaylee since my gut feels D1 (which, coincidentally, I copped a lot of slack for). We have time. I'm making up my own mind. 

[Kaylee]

The timing of your arrival here is suspect. You see why, of course.

The @#$%& I do. I started posting when I woke up, showered and for the baby up. Look at the all the RL mornings and you'll see every f#$%&&+ day it's been the same time

[Askthepizzaguy]

Just woke up, apparently I have a lot to read and little time to read it in.

 

You'll be okay, Shad. You're a good reader.

 

Just over 1 hour.

[Shad_]

I have to feed my kid breakfast and everything.

 

So I dunno.

 

I'll make sure a hammer drops.  Can't promise I'll be caught up by then.

[Kaylee]

You have 1 hour to detail your cases against your top wolf / wolves.

 

Please use the time if you're a villager.

I have already. It's an hour till deadline. We don't have a lynch secured and that bothers me. I've even recently given my POE. Last night I laid out points against Celeste. The rest of my POE is finding the deep wolf. I've said it could be Nol, Cass or Wish. I feel Wish is the least likely. If you have questions ask them

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza, I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but I'll be slightly grumpy at you for pushing me if it's wrong. I'm not stalling, I haven't got anywhere on a read of Kaylee since my gut feels D1 (which, coincidentally, I copped a lot of slack for). We have time. I'm making up my own mind. 

 

Both can be villagers too, Cass. Trying to see how.

 

If Pralaya is a scumbag he will die very soon, by my hand or yours. His only saving grace is a Kaylee scum flip imo.

 

There's no need to be grumpy. We get more information doing this than we would if we had simply fell asleep and lynched Pralaya with no pressure on Kaylee today.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I have to feed my kid breakfast and everything.

 

So I dunno.

 

I'll make sure a hammer drops.  Can't promise I'll be caught up by then.

I'll make sure you have a current vote tally and my recommendation as to which wagon to go onto.

 

I will lynch either person today to ensure a lynch happens. No Lynch is not advisable.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You can freely ignore my recommendation, I will absolutely follow you wherever you go, Shad.

[wish-tree]

Cute

[Kaylee]

Don't sit here talking to me / us if you're a villager

 

Lay out where we need to go after your flip with cited reasons. Or, link to cases you already made and we'll talk about them.

 

Time is of the essence, villager.

I don't have that kind of time. Said as much in sign ups. I start work soon. I spend every morning playing catch up.

 

Pral: Train stalled but that's not telling since likely one wolf on and one off. His case on me sounds like he could be town though.

 

Celeste: read what I said last night. Nobody said anything about it. Could she be anything townie? Yes it's possible. Would like her to not ignore it.

 

Nol, Cass, Wish: Apollo potential deep wolves. Cass mostly for past experience. Nol because tinfoil same as Wish. I feel it's more likely for Nol than Wish though.

 

I don't have examples or strong conviction. Just don't. That's where I'm at though.

[Kaylee]

I'd like to see more about Nolder being a wolf and me being a wolf. I think I've already heard a lot about Celeste and Cass.

For me it's only because of tinfoil. Like I said I'm not sold on it being you. I just don't see it being Laine, Piazza, or Shad... Ever

[Kaylee]

Wait, what? Didn't you say Pralaya's progression on Cass made him suspect?

Yes partly. His wording on it. But as I've said his case on me makes me think he might be town. I don't see them being ww

[Askthepizzaguy]

It's all right, Kay.

 

It's clear that you've reached the limits of what time in RL and the format you're using to play this game (your phone) allow for you to do in the time remaining.

 

I accept this explanation and will blame myself, not you, if I make a bad call here.

 

If you already laid out the work I'll do the legwork and look for it. Just feel like we need to resolve you or Pralaya first before touching Nolder or Celeste.

 

Wish is not an option for me, Cass is only if you're scum, probably.