[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:
 
Kaylee (4): Pral, Pizza, Laine, Wish
Pralaya (3): Kaylee, Lenlo, Celeste
 
Not voting (3): Shad,  Nolder, Cass
 
----------
 
Kaylee is at L-2
 
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch
Day 2 deadline is Monday, January 11 @ 9 AM MST (11 AM EST)
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160111T09&p0=197&msg=End+of+Day+Two&font=cursive&csz=1

[Kaylee]

 

Vote: KayleeCsarmi might not have been feeding me fuel, he might have been trying to persuade me off of Kaylee actually.

Kaylee's position on Csarmi could be distancing and bussing.

 

 

Explain the bold for me? In the Csarmi ISO what I gathered was he was agreeing with you, how is this 'persuading you off Kaylee'?

 

I'm still not fully across that period of the game (p.50-70ish?). 

 

I think I mentioned this conclusion earlier though. My thoughts were if they're WW both of them had everything to gain from bussing at a point where it was likely Kaylee was gaining traction and there was at least my vote and some suspicion surrounding him. At the time I also felt like Kay might be scum using the bus to buddy me.

 

At one point she claimed to be removing tinfoil from her read of me, this phase she put me straight back into contention as possible deep wolf, following Pral's suggestion I was the most likely to have bussed. Feels convenient.

 

 

 

 

Pral: your points against me are stronger for D1. What I mean is that my reads strong and I was very wishy washy. Since D2 started however, I've made solid reads considering the info we gained. I've made points/arguments why I have my reads where they are. Having me as one of your top scum reads for liking posts is weak at this point in the game. I could see if I hadn't put in any work but I have.

 

Uh? That doesn't mean anything. Just because you are scum doesn't mean that you will just pocket somebody and do nothing. Of course there will be other things also - casing, nudging etc etc. It is the small things to notice.

Incidentally, most of your "I like this" posts are usually for points against an easy lynch candidate. INitially it was Lenlo, where Pizza made a case against him. When he came out as cop, your posts were focused on Celeste and me.

It is when seen as a whole that my points make sense. Again., context matters heavily. It is not a "Oh, she likes posts and hence scum" kind of thing.

Actually, the above replies have kind of convinced me she is scum. This is not going to happen but it is here for others to see after they know my flip

[v]Kaylee[/v]

 

This reads like a villager replying to someone he actually believes is scum.

 

That doesn't mean that Kaylee's scum though. And IMO it's not enough to make Pral clear.

 

Kaylee's initial reply seems weak/generic to me but I can see her posting that as Town, vaguely remember something similar from HoC. 

 

Pral's post is more aggressive/convinced in tone than anything else I've seen of his, which fits the vote but could equally be scum aiming for a mislynch he thinks might actually gain traction.

 

 

Why Kaylee over Nolder?

It's because there is a deep wolf somewhere and you've fooled me before so a bit of trouble thinking it's not you.

[wish-tree]

Would a Kaylee/Nolder team be more likely than a Pralaya/Nolder team? Just read Cass's post and had a thought

[Askthepizzaguy]

Numbered Q and A

 

 

I am asking people to please lynch Kaylee first before anything else happens.

 

If she is scum, you never lynch Pralaya.

 

I was willing to resolve Pralaya so I could blue Nolder.

 

Well, Kaylee is still in the POE, and I'm willing to resolve Kaylee so I can blue Pralaya.

 

Kaylee flips innocent, then we'll talk about Pralaya.

 

This is my executive decision and I need town heroes.

 

I don't get the bold. Last I remember reading, Nolder is insisting Pral is Town. 1. I don't see how Pral's flip clears Nolder either way.

 

I agree Kaylee-Pral not likely WW (Csarmi had them on the same tier; Called Kay outright Town (dunno where I got the idea he was bussing her/agreeing with you, wth?), said No lynch was > Pral lynch). If one of them was wolfing with Csarmi, I doubt the other was too.

 

 

Cass, don't ISO anything. We agree Kaylee can be scum and I am solid blue, and you're aware of why.

 

I'm asking you to do me this as a favor. Move your vote right now if you're so inclined.

 

Then re-read if you wish.

 

 

 

 

Give me something simple to read once I'm out of/between classes pizza. I want to know why this is the BEST way to go

 

Yeah, I won't do anything too complicated.

 

I had time to ISO Pralaya. I won't talk about stuff I think is null, I'll just point out a couple things about him.

 

And on Kaylee, she is extremely scummy in a vacuum. Her behavior since being cased by me is largely the same as before, with some minor adjustments.

 

But I do feel that this is not her town game, and my interpretation of Csarmi's intent could be wrong. When I have her even more scum-read because of that old game he cited, he wasn't satisfied with my response and gave me a more recent game, to reflect Kaylee's change toward a more diplomatic and town-finding game.

 

This could have been because he, on his own, was not happy I was finding her even more scummy, or because kaylee knew of her own evolution since that cited game and offered a more recent game where she exhibited the defined behavior.

 

Other than that behavior by Csarmi read a certain way, Kaylee's behavior this game still reads scummy a lot, and if it's not read that way, it's really easy to see what Pralaya is saying about her.

 

I don't think they're w/w and they're both in the POE. The key is lynching a wolf today, because that moves people OUT of the POE.

 

 

That seems plausible. 2. Not sure that Csarmi-scum is motivated enough to go searching for games to spare Town-Kaylee. Was he close to being lynched at this time?

 

 

 

Why I pushed Pralaya today was largely to clear Nolder if Pralaya is scum, for much the same reason.

 

Scums have been willing to go along with this, clearly. Probably because it is wrong.

 

Pral-Nolder Questioned above. I actually feel Nolder more likely to be scummy in general.

 

3. Kaylee voted Pral first? That doesn't seem like 'going along'? Need to check timing of it, was it thread consensus? Also hasn't looked like moving her vote, wouldn't Scum be more willing to keep options open earlier in the day?

 

4. How many scum are actually left? What if there's only one? 

 

 

1. Nolder tried HARD to lynch Pralaya day one, even got kinda snippy about it (a lot snippy about it).

 

I don't see him doing that to his RB or Godfather when all other wagons were stalling.

 

2. No, not really, but a ton of people had him null.

 

He wasn't so sure to be dead that he had no remaining influence on the game, and he wasn't being voted much if at all, but, he does have a motive to try to convince people not to lynch his godfather or roleblocker.
 

3. It doesn't matter, there was residual desire to lynch Pralaya since D1. And Pralaya pushed Kaylee d1. And I don't think the folks not voting Pralaya today can be scum except for Nolder, which I felt was less likely than people on Pralaya.

 

4. Also doesn't matter. Let's just lynch one.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm still a little confused by Csarmi irt Kaylee

 

His behavior there reads as either TMI or flinchy, and I can see it either way.

 

But there's a point where you have to ask why he's still going. I'm trying hard to lynch a townie day one, if she's a townie. Eventually you should just give up. He wasn't satisfied with my original assessment, or my assessment after he gave me a link to look at, which seemed to confirm my idea.

 

And he was scum, so it was a political decision, not a townie being open minded and thoughtful.

 

He had a reason to defend Kaylee, the reason is she's scum or because he wants to white knight a villager.

 

He was a goon and Kaylee looked bad in a vacuum. I want that resolved.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Wish also defended Kaylee iirc, and found her to be town, is that not correct?

 

Yeah but I don't believe Wish is scum.

[Kaylee]

At that point, momentum on Kaylee stalls- none of the scums want to lynch her.

 

But, to make Kaylee look good, Csarmi dies that round.

 

Kaylee is your deep wolf.

No she's not. I've fought this the best I can. Problem is this is an off game for me, though I thought I did better today. Also my play has changed. Those both are against me which is why I agreed with your case. Like I said I get why I'm in POE and I'll take the lynch if it helps the team. Just find those last wolves

[wish-tree]

Kaylee/Cass unlikely. Nolder/Cass unlikely. Pralaya/Cass ??? Pralaya/Kaylee ??? Pralaya/Nolder unlikely. Kaylee/Nolder ???

[Cass]

 

 

 

Vote: Kaylee

 

Csarmi might not have been feeding me fuel, he might have been trying to persuade me off of Kaylee actually.

 

Kaylee's position on Csarmi could be distancing and bussing.

 

Explain the bold for me? In the Csarmi ISO what I gathered was he was agreeing with you, how is this 'persuading you off Kaylee'?

 

I'm still not fully across that period of the game (p.50-70ish?). 

 

I think I mentioned this conclusion earlier though. My thoughts were if they're WW both of them had everything to gain from bussing at a point where it was likely Kaylee was gaining traction and there was at least my vote and some suspicion surrounding him. At the time I also felt like Kay might be scum using the bus to buddy me.

 

At one point she claimed to be removing tinfoil from her read of me, this phase she put me straight back into contention as possible deep wolf, following Pral's suggestion I was the most likely to have bussed. Feels convenient.

 

 

 

 

Pral: your points against me are stronger for D1. What I mean is that my reads strong and I was very wishy washy. Since D2 started however, I've made solid reads considering the info we gained. I've made points/arguments why I have my reads where they are. Having me as one of your top scum reads for liking posts is weak at this point in the game. I could see if I hadn't put in any work but I have.

Uh? That doesn't mean anything. Just because you are scum doesn't mean that you will just pocket somebody and do nothing. Of course there will be other things also - casing, nudging etc etc. It is the small things to notice.

 

Incidentally, most of your "I like this" posts are usually for points against an easy lynch candidate. INitially it was Lenlo, where Pizza made a case against him. When he came out as cop, your posts were focused on Celeste and me.

 

It is when seen as a whole that my points make sense. Again., context matters heavily. It is not a "Oh, she likes posts and hence scum" kind of thing.

 

Actually, the above replies have kind of convinced me she is scum. This is not going to happen but it is here for others to see after they know my flip

[v]Kaylee[/v]

 

 

This reads like a villager replying to someone he actually believes is scum.

 

 

That doesn't mean that Kaylee's scum though. And IMO it's not enough to make Pral clear.

 

Kaylee's initial reply seems weak/generic to me but I can see her posting that as Town, vaguely remember something similar from HoC. 

 

Pral's post is more aggressive/convinced in tone than anything else I've seen of his, which fits the vote but could equally be scum aiming for a mislynch he thinks might actually gain traction.

 

 

Why Kaylee over Nolder?

 

 

 

1st blue:

 

Ok, keeping it real simple, and I'll elaborate more, a lot more, if you want>

 

Originally, Csarmi's behavior looked to me like TMI- basically, someone who knows Kaylee is a townie, and wants the points for it. I explained his quick dismissal of Kaylee as a suspect followed by him feeding me links was an attempt to be on the right side of history, while adding fuel to the fire.

 

But, there's a problem with that idea: He already made his political position on Kaylee clear, and when he gave evidence of her recent scum and town games and I only looked at the town game, and judged that one (a very old one) to be why she was scum here, he wasn't satisfied and tried to persuade me with a much more recent game.

 

What's the motive for the last part?

 

At that point he's already on the right side of history, and wagons elsewhere are stalling badly.

 

What's his motive for preventing a mislynch on Kaylee then?

 

He should just go, okay Pizza, I see your points. Maybe I'm wrong. But I still think we should go here.

 

That's so easy. Why is he still fighting me?

 

Could it have been WIFOM

 

 

 

This is as far as I got while ISO'ing Pralaya.

 

 

 

689- Points at Cass for unusual thing

 

1348- Gives one reason why Turin is town, one reason why Nolder is town, one reason why Zander is town, no reason why Shad is town, puts me town on tone, pings at Kaylee for playing it safe, pings Celeste and Lenlo for being forced.

 

I don't like this generally, and is why Pralaya needs to be resolved this game. One reason here, one reason here, feels faked. But it could just be Pralaya's way while he's catching up. His behavior improves after this.

1349- Reads to page 30

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/96393-basicstandard-warcraft-war-of-the-ancients-mafia-day-two/page-68?do=findComment&comment=3588589

1354- says still on page 30

 

1619- explains town read on Turin after the claim was before the claim, and why town reading him.

 

I actually think his read on Turin could be independent of the claim, because if he's in the know, he probably has teammates keeping him up to date on stuff. Sure Csarmi wasn't paying super close attention but Zander was. And I think they had an active wolf outside of Pralaya.

1640- Still catching up.

1664- Was truthfully on Kaylee before me. For reasons I later pointed out and so did he.

 

If Kaylee is scum, this is huge for Pralaya.

1691- a limited interaction with Zander.

1693- Page 85, caught up to page 50. Kaylee/Lenlo as scum. Thinks Wish/Celeste is not wolf/wolf. Likes reasoning why Celeste is probably town.

 

Removes mislynches from our grasp, imo.

1768- Gives superficial reasons to suspect Lenlo. Still suspects Kaylee.

1815- Votes Kaylee, willing to lynch Wish or Lenlo. (Wish probably based on tally.)

 

If Kaylee is scum, this is huge.

1821- correctly notes his early push on Kaylee.

 

2712- Complains it is now page 136.

2714- Points out Csarmi asked to be bussed in previous games.

 

This could be TMI, but it is also null, because it's true, he would know that as either alignment, how Csarmi acts as scum.

2745- gives Nolder a really town lean for voting me. (I disagree with the reasons given, but consider the alignment possibly true anyway.)

 

Again, I don't feel like he's trying to find mislynches for us to lynch, I think he's acting to avoid mislynches.

2748- Explains why Cass could be using TMI to push Csarmi with unique reasons. Unnatural points tell, basically. Explains Cass probably bussed Csarmi.

 

Whether Cass is scum or not, I like this thought process.

2750- Links people who voted Csarmi early to people pushing on Nolder D2.

 

Again, I like that process.

2789- leaves.

 

2972- doubles down on Cass read.

2973- gives example of Zander distancing but not pushing Cass.

2982- puts Wish and Shad as likely town due to Zander.

2983- defends idea about Cass.

3007- tinfoils Lenlo

3048- reinforces Lenlo's claim after the claim.

3062- WTL Cass, Celeste, Laine, Kaylee. Laine and Kaylee for POE, explained Cass already.

3125- Again points to early wagon on Csarmi.

 

3416- Again explains Cass' reasons on Csarmi were forced. Goes into greater thinking detail

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/96393-basicstandard-warcraft-war-of-the-ancients-mafia-day-two/page-171?do=findComment&comment=3591324

3421- website issues, reiterates point about how Wish is town because.

 

He's very consistent on this.

3422- explains that what Shad was saying about Zander's new bussing method applies to Cass.

 

Again, regardless of Cass' alignment this is a good look.

3423- explains that scum-lo would have claimed vig.

3424- says that Laine's WTL list is similar to his.

3425- reiterates Cass read.

3426- says he already explained this stuff, Cass.

3432- has a feeling Celeste is town despite her being in POE and her performance to date. Says Cass and Kaylee are the final 2 scums.

 

Feels like a villager's attempt to solve.

3433- In spite of my reasons why I think I could be wrong on Kaylee, Pralaya points out her game hasn't changed since Zander and Csarmi flipped, that she is simply nodding and agreeing a lot.

3434- Last will and testament- lynch Kaylee and Cass. Hardclaims vanilla.

3454- Probably the best post of Pralaya's. Votes Kaylee.

3463-

 

 

 

 

 

Based on this, I'm willing to give Pralaya the gun and have his shot on Kaylee resolved.

 

Kaylee was also hunted by me hard and the reaction from the scum team was to be very skeptical.

 

Mindmeld with you on most of the green-blue and it was why I didn't cast vote straight after ISO.

 

Can vote Kaylee now, on the proviso I get enough time to ISO her and compare.

 

FTR, Really don't like the 'Csarmi probably bussed, will keep that in mind ... oh, Cass top suspect' part - especially when it comes after suspicion of me for pushing Zander early on. Also don't like how he hasn't acknowledged my earlier suspicion of Csarmi/how and after the flip his case on me centres around how Zander interacted with me and not the other way around.

[alannalynn]

 

 

Wish also defended Kaylee iirc, and found her to be town, is that not correct?

Yeah but I don't believe Wish is scum.

oh definitely not just thinking

 

I like your last post though

[wish-tree]

Kaylee, again, who do you think the last wolves are?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Would a Kaylee/Nolder team be more likely than a Pralaya/Nolder team? Just read Cass's post and had a thought

 

I guess. I haven't ruled it out.

 

Pralaya Nolder seems unlikely but is still possible I guess. Really weird D1 though.

[wish-tree]

Just made a combos post. Lmk what you think of each combination. The ??? are the ones I'm tinfoiling over.

[Kaylee]

Who are your remaining wolves, Kaylee?

My POE is Pral and possible deep wolf in either you or Cass.

 

I'm VT BTW.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Kaylee, I feel like you're here to play ragdoll (I'm in the POE, I'm town, I'm willing to self-vote... but I'm not scum / Bluff which is lower risk than it looks due to time remaining)

 

You need to be hunting wolves D2 like you've done in every game I've seen you village in.

 

I commend you for ragdolling if you're a wolf, but it's bad villaging.

[Askthepizzaguy]

The timing of your arrival here is suspect. You see why, of course.

[Kaylee]

Yeah, I found that post by Nolder weird too.

Nol is also possible. Now so then you actually so it'd be in order:

 

Pral/Celeste then Nolder/Cass then Wish.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You have 1 hour to detail your cases against your top wolf / wolves.

 

Please use the time if you're a villager.

[wish-tree]

Okay, got it. @Kaylee.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Don't sit here talking to me / us if you're a villager

 

Lay out where we need to go after your flip with cited reasons. Or, link to cases you already made and we'll talk about them.

 

Time is of the essence, villager.

[wish-tree]

I'd like to see more about Nolder being a wolf and me being a wolf. I think I've already heard a lot about Celeste and Cass.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Kaylee/Cass unlikely. Nolder/Cass unlikely. Pralaya/Cass ??? Pralaya/Kaylee ??? Pralaya/Nolder unlikely. Kaylee/Nolder ???

 

Why is Kaylee/Cass unlikely?

 

Cass is stalling.

[Kaylee]

 

I am asking people to please lynch Kaylee first before anything else happens.

 

If she is scum, you never lynch Pralaya.

 

I was willing to resolve Pralaya so I could blue Nolder.

 

Well, Kaylee is still in the POE, and I'm willing to resolve Kaylee so I can blue Pralaya.

 

Kaylee flips innocent, then we'll talk about Pralaya.

 

This is my executive decision and I need town heroes.

 

 

I don't get the bold. Last I remember reading, Nolder is insisting Pral is Town. I don't see how Pral's flip clears Nolder either way.

 

I agree Kaylee-Pral not likely WW (Csarmi had them on the same tier; Called Kay outright Town (dunno where I got the idea he was bussing her/agreeing with you, wth?), said No lynch was > Pral lynch). If one of them was wolfing with Csarmi, I doubt the other was too.

 

 

Cass, don't ISO anything. We agree Kaylee can be scum and I am solid blue, and you're aware of why.

 

I'm asking you to do me this as a favor. Move your vote right now if you're so inclined.

 

Then re-read if you wish.

 

 

 

 

 

Give me something simple to read once I'm out of/between classes pizza. I want to know why this is the BEST way to go

 

 

Yeah, I won't do anything too complicated.

 

I had time to ISO Pralaya. I won't talk about stuff I think is null, I'll just point out a couple things about him.

 

And on Kaylee, she is extremely scummy in a vacuum. Her behavior since being cased by me is largely the same as before, with some minor adjustments.

 

But I do feel that this is not her town game, and my interpretation of Csarmi's intent could be wrong. When I have her even more scum-read because of that old game he cited, he wasn't satisfied with my response and gave me a more recent game, to reflect Kaylee's change toward a more diplomatic and town-finding game.

 

This could have been because he, on his own, was not happy I was finding her even more scummy, or because kaylee knew of her own evolution since that cited game and offered a more recent game where she exhibited the defined behavior.

 

Other than that behavior by Csarmi read a certain way, Kaylee's behavior this game still reads scummy a lot, and if it's not read that way, it's really easy to see what Pralaya is saying about her.

 

I don't think they're w/w and they're both in the POE. The key is lynching a wolf today, because that moves people OUT of the POE.

 

That seems plausible. Not sure that Csarmi-scum is motivated enough to go searching for games to spare Town-Kaylee. Was he close to being lynched at this time?

 

 

 

Why I pushed Pralaya today was largely to clear Nolder if Pralaya is scum, for much the same reason.

 

Scums have been willing to go along with this, clearly. Probably because it is wrong.

 

 

Pral-Nolder Questioned above. I actually feel Nolder more likely to be scummy in general.

 

Kaylee voted Pral first? That doesn't seem like 'going along'? Need to check timing of it, was it thread consensus? Also hasn't looked like moving her vote, wouldn't Scum be more willing to keep options open earlier in the day?

 

How many scum are actually left? What if there's only one?

I think Pals progression on me says he could be town.

[wish-tree]

Huh... I just think that Kaylee thinking that Cass = deep wolf would be more dangerous if they were w/w together

[Kaylee]

 

 

 

 

Pral: your points against me are stronger for D1. What I mean is that my reads strong and I was very wishy washy. Since D2 started however, I've made solid reads considering the info we gained. I've made points/arguments why I have my reads where they are. Having me as one of your top scum reads for liking posts is weak at this point in the game. I could see if I hadn't put in any work but I have.

 

Uh? That doesn't mean anything. Just because you are scum doesn't mean that you will just pocket somebody and do nothing. Of course there will be other things also - casing, nudging etc etc. It is the small things to notice.

Incidentally, most of your "I like this" posts are usually for points against an easy lynch candidate. INitially it was Lenlo, where Pizza made a case against him. When he came out as cop, your posts were focused on Celeste and me.

It is when seen as a whole that my points make sense. Again., context matters heavily. It is not a "Oh, she likes posts and hence scum" kind of thing.

Actually, the above replies have kind of convinced me she is scum. This is not going to happen but it is here for others to see after they know my flip

[v]Kaylee[/v]

 

This reads like a villager replying to someone he actually believes is scum.

I've said the same thing. I understand I'm in the POE though. I'll even self vote of we need to it secure the lynch. Just hope it helps you find the last two schmoes

 

No, if you're a villager you will keep your vote on Pralaya and talk to me.

I am. What do you want to know. It's almost deadline and I don't want us to waste the day