[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[Pralaya]

@ Pral - What makes you so certain Wish is town?

 

 

Again, I have explained this a couple of times already. Are we just going round and round the bush?

[Pralaya]

@Pral, initially you had Zander as one of your three top town reads. You later considered who might be scum on csarmi's wagon based on their progression into voting him, and you resolved on Cass. How did this study impact your read on Zander at the time?

 

Before his flip, nothing specifically on him. I was (and still am ) more or less sure that there were at least a couple of scum in his train. Though who they were was still to be figured out. Zander was a possibility but I didn't look at it in detail at the time.

[Askthepizzaguy]

You do realize in order for me to be w/w with Pral that would make Celeste innocent right?

Just stew on that for 10 minutes and then let me know how it tastes.

Be honest.

 

This is why my vote isn't on you, and I'm largely recommending Celeste go first as well regardless of Pralaya's flip.

 

But, if Pralaya is innocent you have been very helpful to the scums this game. For certain values of "helpful".

 

That's why I read you based on your tone and what I think is your intent and think you're probably not the lynch, but at the same time, if we're not making more wolf blood spill today, I don't know where your game was this game and I have people much bluer than you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

*listens intently to Pralaya

[alannalynn]

Here and catching upppppp peopless

[alannalynn]

 

Pralaya- Pral almost purely here by POE. I read his ISO and I got nothing. I can see the pushes at Cass as the other wolf on the Csarmi wagon, I can see his thought processes. But then I see his WTL and I'm like wuuuuttttt? I mean, I know it's a lot of pages and a lot of stuff to get though, but I guess I don't really know what he's doing here right now. tl;dr, like his input but don't like his conclusions. Like, I can't fudging read him?

Laine's Wolf list - Cass, Celeste, Kaylee, Pralaya, NOlder

Pralaya's wolf list - Cass, Kaylee, Laine, Celeste

 

Uh? So you didný like my WTL list because YOU are in my list? LOL

 

Lol a little bit. I think I've put a damn lotta work in this game and am pretty confused. As for my WTL list, today it's only you.

[Pralaya]

Looking back, I have a bad feeling that Celeste is also town. Nothing specifically to point out but just a gut feeling. She is in most of the scumlist, due to POE, like me but other than that nothing else.

 

Gun to my head, the last two scum are Cass and Kaylee.

 

Cass, I talked about.

 

Kaylee - Now, I had her in my sights D1 because of her playing the game really, really safe. I have pointed out instances where she did that. She went from "I am playing a really, really bad game" on D1 to "Liking everyone else's post on D2". I just looked back at her posts and she has so many "I like this" posts that I don't think it is natural. Almost a way of pocketing people and staying safe. She knows she is in the POE and doing things to keep her slot safe. 

[Pralaya]

Shad:

 

 

 

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

I agree with your comment on Wish, and while we all know Zander likes to bus, he does it with the goal of winning games, and he has the experience to know what that means. Consider:

 

Zander's first bus game, relied exclusively on gut, provided no case, managed to get his partner lynched when she was town telling like crazy and had a lot of us pocketed. It bought him a pass for a while. Towns kept dying. Wait a second, how did Zander really know Talya was scum when all of Shad/Verbal/AJ/BFG were oblivious to it at the time? TMI, gets lynched, town wins.

 

Zander's second bus game, relies entirely on a case because 'gut' was TMI last time, crafts a really solid one because it's a lot easier to point out scummy things when you know someone is scum lolololol. Holds off the actual lynch for two days by playing up the tunnel vision, because tunnel vision can make towns fail to take notice of the actual quality of the case. Lenlo finally gets lynched, people review Zander's case and realize it was spot on all along, lock him in as town, scum wins.

 

Diablo: Zander cases a town. Has a few good reasons and some pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked), gets lynched instead of his target.

 

This game: Zander cases someone. Has a few good reasons a lot of pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked,) gets lynched instead of his target.

 

Yeah, Wish probably town. Would be a pretty clever and yet stupidly high-risk self-sacrifice otherwise, as either 1) town follows his lead and lynches her, then lynches him after she flips scum anyway because it was super TMI and Zander has a history, or 2) he gets outed for the case D2 or D3, still can't ensure Wish doesn't get vigged by someone who believes him beforehand, still can't ensure she isn't lynched at 3-player lylo because town is telling too hard or has confirmed PRs still living.

 

But Pral, couldn't the difference in tone be a simple consequence of Zander not (in what, the first 20 pages?) making Cass his committed lynch push? I can understand if you don't agree with my theory that Zander spewed Cass town, but what does his case on Wish have to do with it?

 

Really like the way this is laid out. Also good question.

 

Pizza (this one was borderline nudging):

 

 

And going through my explanation of this post- (With oooooh pretty colors)

And now what should be done is me multiquoting Zander talking to Lenlo, and Lenlo talking to Zander.

 

But, why wait for me to do it?

 

You guys can look yourselves while I'm trying to assemble it. I have dinner coming up soon and I've already done tons of work today.

 

But look for yourselves, tell me what you see.

Very interesting. Doesn't look good for Leno

 

Nolder:

 

 

 

3-4 mafia for 13 players? Agreed or Disagreed

I'm going to go with 4.

We've seen 2 goons so far which makes me think the team isn't heavily roled and one just died at night indicating a vig or SK.

 

So 2 more.

 

I agreed and likely one deep wolf.

 

You get the gist. Just look at her list of posts and see how easily she is agreeing with everyone.

[Pralaya]

A vanilla town hard claim is also always a lynch, so tough luck if that's what you randed.

It so happens that i am indeed vanilla. So, go ahead.

However, go against cass and kaylee after i flip. Don't screw it up !

[alannalynn]

Okay, nothing I want to respond to. But I'll be around today/tonight to case like I want to since I'm skipping work.

 

I'm going to take a lazy morning for once

[alannalynn]

Still good with a Pral lynch, fwiw. I'm almost hitting that wall where I need a flip to see things a little more clearly. Bleh, horrible feeling.

[Kaylee]

Lenlo, that's the same exact argument that Zander used regarding me.

 

I'm pretty sure you can read what I wrote in response to his case on me, which was built off what he saw as contradictions in my early game meta. We've gone over this.

 

I said that I hate using gut reads, but they work, especially for people I know. You're taking my posts and seriously not trying to take in consideration what I was thinking at the time.

 

Early day 1 was really bad for me, as I didn't know the game had even started, and then had to catch up to lots of pages I'd missed.

 

Irt Celeste/me appearing at the same time, we're often on Skype on a regular basis, and finish talking/gaming before doing forum Mafia stuff. It's normal.

Yeah I thought so too... Not good

[Kaylee]

That bottom sentence should probably be highlighted.

 

The wolves did not want to lynch Pralaya day one at all, if Wish, Nolder, and Lenlo are all resolved.

 

That explains why Zander was kind of stuck on Wish for so long.

 

Zander wolf has more options than to be nailed down to one suspect.

 

And if there are two wolves left and the other is Celeste, it would explain why he didn't push that one harder when people gave Celeste more time.

 

So, bottom two would be Celeste/Pralaya, with Pralaya given priority due to the larger possibility he's the Godfather/roleblocker role that the wolves didn't want dead.

 

Yes? No?

Makes sense to me.

[Kaylee]

No, seriously. Who should we view here?

 

I can't think of a view that comes to mind outside of the bottom two in my poe, and we're lynching one of those two today, and likely vigging the other or lynching the other tomorrow.

 

And a view could be useless unless it's exactly a guilty result.

 

An innocent view on our villagers doesn't tell us that much. Only a red view of our villagers would be helpful.

Maybe Nolder? He's one that a lot of us have as questionable.

[Kaylee]

 

No, seriously. Who should we view here?

 

I can't think of a view that comes to mind outside of the bottom two in my poe, and we're lynching one of those two today, and likely vigging the other or lynching the other tomorrow.

 

And a view could be useless unless it's exactly a guilty result.

 

An innocent view on our villagers doesn't tell us that much. Only a red view of our villagers would be helpful.

 

Everything is molding together atm. Where is your PoE list again?

Why not give him a name from yours? Doesn't make sense to ask him for his POE when he's asking for help on who would be a good candidate? Looks like your trying to look good here.

[Kaylee]

Thinking more on cop views-

 

Shad's a terrible view unless he's somehow a red peek, and I never think Shad is a red peek this game. His play makes him a murder always, think on him at final 3 only, if ever. Even then I doubt you'd get my vote there in some alternate universe where I survived that long, not gonna happen.

 

Alanna's only a good view if she is the scum roleblocker, and I think that's unlikely, but fine. I also think Godfather is less likely, but Alanna is good, I suppose there's a distant possibility of this.

 

Nolder is solid blue if Pralaya is a scum, in my opinion, regardless of what kind of scum Pralaya is. Minus another goon I suppose, but really? I don't think even then. A red flip by Pralaya puts Nolder above Alanna on the list.

 

Wish? But then Zander wouldn't have pushed her that hard and also been town-read by his teammates, because the only people not town-reading him were Wish, myself, and Shad... unless I'm missing someone. Wish should be above Alanna as well. Basically Alanna is my final three lynch target if all the remainders were people who are currently blue, which is approximately impossible.

 

Cass.

 

That's your view. I remove the likelihood of Cass as the scum Godfather based on her extremely quirky opener and then giant shift in behavior.

 

As Godfather, you generally won't be bussed by your team or even suspected very much, you want to be town-read by people and scanned, but probably not on night one. That said, some scums might play for a n1 peek of the godfather even though imo that's bad play. You also want to avoid exhibiting behavior that could get you lynched without being viewed, or forced to make a claim that could draw a murder by getting too many votes on you. Almost any player and almost every scum team I've ever seen with a godfather had these common fundamentals when dealing with that role's inclusion to the game.

 

Cass' behavior is very un-Godfatherly, and as such, to remove all doubt of deep wolfing, should be locked blue by scan.

 

It's faintly that she randed scum roleblocker, got coached by Cory to give a hella villagery opener, and then skate for a while, give an excuse here or there, whatever. That's the only way I could see her play as being remotely viable. Would explain why she didn't gain a lot of votes this game.

 

But cold read of her still looks very solid. And all I'm really looking for now is a red peek, and it's vaguely possible Cass could be a red peek.

 

Kaylee has some slight chance of being Godfather this game, so don't peek there. Treat her like you would if this game had no cop at all. That's how you deal with Kaylee-slot.

 

Leaves Celeste, who has a better chance of being Godfather, and is already POE'd out, so scanning her red is fine but she's dying tomorrow anyway.

 

You want a red peek on someone who isn't immediately POE'd here. That's the only correct move.

 

Celeste wins if everyone decides to arbitrarily remove her from POE tomorrow, which is only possible with a blue peek, so it's a terrible peek.

 

That's the long and the short of it.

 

Nolder as the peek is an idea I don't like just in case Pralaya flips innocent and Nolder is the godfather. I'd prefer Cass peek.

OK. I like the way you laid it all out. I can follow that logic

[wish-tree]

Leaving for church, but first:

RE: peeks- Cass/me would definitely be best to eliminate tinfoil for deep wolfing.

 

RE: Celeste- I still maintain that this is her normal play. She has been sick/busy and her play has gone down significantly compared to as if she had the energy and time to invest here.

 

RE: other things- later, gotta jet.

[Kaylee]

Looking back, I have a bad feeling that Celeste is also town. Nothing specifically to point out but just a gut feeling. She is in most of the scumlist, due to POE, like me but other than that nothing else.

 

Gun to my head, the last two scum are Cass and Kaylee.

 

Cass, I talked about.

 

Kaylee - Now, I had her in my sights D1 because of her playing the game really, really safe. I have pointed out instances where she did that. She went from "I am playing a really, really bad game" on D1 to "Liking everyone else's post on D2". I just looked back at her posts and she has so many "I like this" posts that I don't think it is natural. Almost a way of pocketing people and staying safe. She knows she is in the POE and doing things to keep her slot safe.

 

A lot of the posting had happened while I'm asleep. Liking posts isn't all I've done. I've asked questions and punted things out against Celeste. Yes I'm going to say if someone makes a posts I like.

[Kaylee]

Shad: 

 

 

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

I agree with your comment on Wish, and while we all know Zander likes to bus, he does it with the goal of winning games, and he has the experience to know what that means. Consider:Zander's first bus game, relied exclusively on gut, provided no case, managed to get his partner lynched when she was town telling like crazy and had a lot of us pocketed. It bought him a pass for a while. Towns kept dying. Wait a second, how did Zander really know Talya was scum when all of Shad/Verbal/AJ/BFG were oblivious to it at the time? TMI, gets lynched, town wins.Zander's second bus game, relies entirely on a case because 'gut' was TMI last time, crafts a really solid one because it's a lot easier to point out scummy things when you know someone is scum lolololol. Holds off the actual lynch for two days by playing up the tunnel vision, because tunnel vision can make towns fail to take notice of the actual quality of the case. Lenlo finally gets lynched, people review Zander's case and realize it was spot on all along, lock him in as town, scum wins.Diablo: Zander cases a town. Has a few good reasons and some pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked), gets lynched instead of his target.This game: Zander cases someone. Has a few good reasons a lot of pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked,) gets lynched instead of his target.Yeah, Wish probably town. Would be a pretty clever and yet stupidly high-risk self-sacrifice otherwise, as either 1) town follows his lead and lynches her, then lynches him after she flips scum anyway because it was super TMI and Zander has a history, or 2) he gets outed for the case D2 or D3, still can't ensure Wish doesn't get vigged by someone who believes him beforehand, still can't ensure she isn't lynched at 3-player lylo because town is telling too hard or has confirmed PRs still living.But Pral, couldn't the difference in tone be a simple consequence of Zander not (in what, the first 20 pages?) making Cass his committed lynch push? I can understand if you don't agree with my theory that Zander spewed Cass town, but what does his case on Wish have to do with it?

Really like the way this is laid out. Also good question.

Pizza (this one was borderline nudging):

 

And going through my explanation of this post- (With oooooh pretty colors)And now what should be done is me multiquoting Zander talking to Lenlo, and Lenlo talking to Zander.But, why wait for me to do it?You guys can look yourselves while I'm trying to assemble it. I have dinner coming up soon and I've already done tons of work today.But look for yourselves, tell me what you see.

Very interesting. Doesn't look good for Leno

Nolder:

 

 

3-4 mafia for 13 players? Agreed or Disagreed

I'm going to go with 4.We've seen 2 goons so far which makes me think the team isn't heavily roled and one just died at night indicating a vig or SK. So 2 more.

I agreed and likely one deep wolf.

You get the gist. Just look at her list of posts and see how easily she is agreeing with everyone.

Not agreeing with everyone. I have Shad and Piazza, and laine as high town. I've even said as town I agree/follow my top town reads. Gave an example. Anyway if you're saying that's all I've done, nice try. Yes it's happened a lot but that's null at best.

[Kaylee]

 

A vanilla town hard claim is also always a lynch, so tough luck if that's what you randed.

It so happens that i am indeed vanilla. So, go ahead.However, go against cass and kaylee after i flip. Don't screw it up !

Let me ask you this Pral. Say for some reason I got lynched before you and flipped town, which I will. Who then? You only have it as Cass and I. I can't argue against Cass as she's towards the bottom of my town and I've been tinfoiling there.

[Kaylee]

I like that Pral is putting in more effort. It's not enough for me to invite, but at least he's trying now.

 

OMG Kay liked something else, she's clearly scum! Lol

[Lenlo]

So Pizza you have multiple vig shots? Explain away the possibility of SK then. Yes we are lynching Pral today, regardless of the answer and you may think this tinfoil only hurts town, but SK is a serious threat that wants scum dead just as much as town does.

[Lenlo]

Suppose we can revisit that D3 after we see who the wolves NK. No need to tinfoil hard today.

[Kaylee]

So Pizza you have multiple vig shots? Explain away the possibility of SK then. Yes we are lynching Pral today, regardless of the answer and you may think this tinfoil only hurts town, but SK is a serious threat that wants scum dead just as much as town does.

This can be a legit concern. Considering part of the argument against SK is they would've taken out Piazza. But it's not a worry for today.

[Kaylee]

Esp since he's helped town so much this far.