[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

Askthepizzaguy · January 10, 2016

Coreh

Be proud of us Coreh

Askthepizzaguy · January 10, 2016

Nolder/Pralaya only possible if Pralaya is a goon, imo.

Askthepizzaguy · January 10, 2016

Uhhhh lollll I'm not a creeper I just remember things and may misattribute them

My god you do not want to know how I read this post at a 1-second glance.

Pizza gets it.

Shad_ · January 10, 2016

Two contrary thoughts on Nolder/Pral w/w potential:

1) Scum!Nolder might not expect people to actually follow his lead on D1. (What was the timing of him yelling about it a lot? Was it before or after people peeled off of Pral for Kaylee/Csarmi?)

2) He pretty randomly switched to a town read on Pral today at a point where it's possible scum quit trying/are just banking on a last ditch derpclear.

Askthepizzaguy · January 10, 2016

Two contrary thoughts on Nolder/Pral w/w potential:

1) Scum!Nolder might not expect people to actually follow his lead on D1. (What was the timing of him yelling about it a lot? Was it before or after people peeled off of Pral for Kaylee/Csarmi?)

2) He pretty randomly switched to a town read on Pral today at a point where it's possible scum quit trying/are just banking on a last ditch derpclear.

IIRC he pushed Pral pretty hard, for a lot of the round, got pissed, removed his vote at one point because it wasn't going anywhere, and then put the vote back.

Let me see, someone posted the votes for Pral already so we could analyze this. It's a couple pages back.

Askthepizzaguy · January 10, 2016

Don't get me wrong, Nolder can be scum if Pralaya is a vanilla townie or a mafia goon.

Askthepizzaguy · January 10, 2016

[v]Pral[/v]

Getting close to 50 pages Pral.

Keep up or die.

lol

I actually forgot to make the vote

[v] Pralaya [/v]

lol

I actually forgot to make the vote

[v] Pralaya [/v]

I'll double down on this since it's seeing some traction.

I like what Pral posted but he's so far behind we need more or it's not good enough.

[v]Pral[/v]

uuuuugh fine

[unvote][v]Pral[/v]

Lets do something.

Heres all the D1 Pral votes, didnt get the unvotes or VCs

Here you go, Shad.

This is your project. If you're right that Pral and Nolder are wolf/wolf, or that Nolder is a wolf at all, I'm delegating that task to you to look at.

I'm in a state of mind where I'd be more biased in favor of Nolder and would forgive or overlook stuff.

The general progression of the game leads me to believe that a Pralaya non-goon wolf flip makes Nolder look excellent, and that Nolder isn't lock clear but a town lean.

After Pralaya and Celeste both villagers, I'd lynch him.

Askthepizzaguy · January 10, 2016

A Pralaya villager flip would mean Nolder looks bad. Unfortunately he has nothing good all game if so, and I'd shoot him tonight. The Csarmi stuff isn't clearing enough if Pralaya is just a goon.

Then lynch Celeste tomorrow.

Askthepizzaguy · January 10, 2016

I just see Nolder/Celeste as more likely to be true than Nolder/Pralaya.

I also see Pralaya mafia power role flip as a good look for Nolder, so that's why I have them ordered that way.

Nolder · January 10, 2016

Gun to head I'm going to say Pral is town.

I wish there was more content to work with but sometimes gotta make tough call.

Ok who's next?

Shad how about you. Ok let's go.

Ok.

Talk to me. What are your concerns?

Let's start here and hopefully I'll have more for you tomorrow night.

#15/16 - Weird to mention all the players you do and don't have meta on right at the start. Like you're setting up excuses for mislynches on townies maybe. (-1)

#617 - Gives reads list. Weird that he has Csarmi at the top. Says he explained it but may have missed the explanation. (0)

#799 - Basing his read on Celeste off how Wish acts. This doesn't bother me later in the game when connections are being made but it seems very early to me to draw these kinds of conclusions. (-0.5)

These are your old notes iirc. Have you advanced on any of these thoughts so far?

Blue -- I named you, Lenlo, Laine, Zander as the people I think I can read well. What has my approach to these four people done to strengthen or lessen your concern?

Green -- It was definitely a bad reason, as things panned out, but I explained it again later. I don't know if I explicitly stated "this was my original reason" or if I just reiterated the reason, but did anything about my treatment of csarmi towards the end of D1 ping you?

Red -- I am still basing a lot of my Celeste read on the same principle. What are your thoughts on Wish/Celeste interaction?

No. I cancelled my note taking at the start of the day. It was taking up too much of my time.

1) You're not addressing my concern you're just stating a fact and then asking me a question. Deflection?

2) Towards the end? Not that I recall. I was more focused on Nomi than you though.

3) This doesn't address my concern with you basing your read on Celeste off Wish so early in the game. I've already stated I think it's weird how Wish and Celeste link themselves every game but I guess that's their thing. Don't think it's alignment indicative.

1) How am I not addressing your concern? What is your concern, if not precisely what I addressed?

3) If I understand you correctly: you think Wish/Celeste is sort of like Zander/Laine and Wish will always white knight her? The action has no real implications?

I was dragged off to watch a late night movie sorry.

1) You didn't address anything! You stated, again, who you have meta on and moved on. All you did was restate the original post that I took issue with in the first place. The issue I took was you setting up mislynches based on not having a meta read. I now think that was an incorrect assumption but that's irrelevant because I didn't decide that until earlier tonight and you didn't know that regardless.

3) My concern in regards to you is how you're behaving towards them.

I'll dig more into this all later once I've finished ISOing you.

Nolder · January 10, 2016

Uhhhh lollll I'm not a creeper I just remember things and may misattribute them

My god you do not want to know how I read this post at a 1-second glance.

We are terrible people.

Nolder · January 10, 2016

You do realize in order for me to be w/w with Pral that would make Celeste innocent right?

Just stew on that for 10 minutes and then let me know how it tastes.

Be honest.

Shad_ · January 10, 2016

I'll probably put off looking into the Pral/Nolder (im)probability more until I see Pral's flip. Also didn't finish my Zander ISO (left off on p8 in the search). Also didn't begin my Wish ISO.

Tired/4:30am so brief:

I questioned Pral on the things that seemed off to me. He hasn't really been around enough for the discussion to go far. It's where I was planning to go today short of some fairly convincing answers.

I've said all along that I think Nolder is playing to his town meta. I still feel that way. But he's been very independent from the course of events in this game, and that makes it impossible to strengthen my read on him by other means. Hoping to continue our discussion.

I need to put the most work into Wish. I haven't yet put in sufficient time and energy to convince myself that Zander was absolutely not bussing. She's definitely playing a very solid game independently of that if she's scum.

Zander seems to spew Kaylee town in at least one post, and csarmi's actions suggest the same. Her game has looked significantly better as of D2.

I felt like Zander was spewing Celeste and Cass town as well. Cass has played amazing besides that. Celeste, not so much. Wish's firm town read on Celeste continues to color my read.

If Laine is scum she has me pretty well pocketed aorn. She's been displaying an increased level of interest and enthusiasm as more scum die, hasn't said anything that's pinged me in quite a while now, generally just reeks of town Laininess. Worthy of a closer look on my part but extremely low on my radar at the moment.

So yeah, my head is at something like

Pizza

Lenlo

Laine

Cass

Celeste

Kaylee

Wish*

Nolder

Pral

Shad_ · January 10, 2016

Gun to head I'm going to say Pral is town.

I wish there was more content to work with but sometimes gotta make tough call.

Ok who's next?

Shad how about you. Ok let's go.

Ok.

Talk to me. What are your concerns?

Let's start here and hopefully I'll have more for you tomorrow night.

#15/16 - Weird to mention all the players you do and don't have meta on right at the start. Like you're setting up excuses for mislynches on townies maybe. (-1)

#617 - Gives reads list. Weird that he has Csarmi at the top. Says he explained it but may have missed the explanation. (0)

#799 - Basing his read on Celeste off how Wish acts. This doesn't bother me later in the game when connections are being made but it seems very early to me to draw these kinds of conclusions. (-0.5)

These are your old notes iirc. Have you advanced on any of these thoughts so far?

Blue -- I named you, Lenlo, Laine, Zander as the people I think I can read well. What has my approach to these four people done to strengthen or lessen your concern?

Green -- It was definitely a bad reason, as things panned out, but I explained it again later. I don't know if I explicitly stated "this was my original reason" or if I just reiterated the reason, but did anything about my treatment of csarmi towards the end of D1 ping you?

Red -- I am still basing a lot of my Celeste read on the same principle. What are your thoughts on Wish/Celeste interaction?

No. I cancelled my note taking at the start of the day. It was taking up too much of my time.

1) You're not addressing my concern you're just stating a fact and then asking me a question. Deflection?

2) Towards the end? Not that I recall. I was more focused on Nomi than you though.

3) This doesn't address my concern with you basing your read on Celeste off Wish so early in the game. I've already stated I think it's weird how Wish and Celeste link themselves every game but I guess that's their thing. Don't think it's alignment indicative.

1) How am I not addressing your concern? What is your concern, if not precisely what I addressed?

3) If I understand you correctly: you think Wish/Celeste is sort of like Zander/Laine and Wish will always white knight her? The action has no real implications?

I was dragged off to watch a late night movie sorry.

1) You didn't address anything! You stated, again, who you have meta on and moved on. All you did was restate the original post that I took issue with in the first place. The issue I took was you setting up mislynches based on not having a meta read. I now think that was an incorrect assumption but that's irrelevant because I didn't decide that until earlier tonight and you didn't know that regardless.

3) My concern in regards to you is how you're behaving towards them.

I'll dig more into this all later once I've finished ISOing you.

1) I thought you meant mislynches on the 4 people I named. (I think Turin presented it that way, or maybe I just assumed that was what he was suggesting.) But if you don't feel that way anymore I'm not sure what else to ask you here.

3) You'll have to elaborate for me.

I'm too tired to ask you anything fancy right now. At least give me a better idea what you're thinking with 3).

Shad_ · January 10, 2016

Goodnight!

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

Blue, it's a manner of speaking. Let me paraphrase: "Salami, you are correctly reading me town, but for reasons that you have always treated as null in the past."

Whether Cass is town or scum, I'm like 99% sure that's what she meant by the "I am town" statement. She could have worded it more directly. Something like "That's funny Salami, you have always treated this as null in the past", and avoided emphasizing that she is town. That's the better way to state it, as either alignment, because it draws less suspicion, but I can easily see what was said come out of a less filtered town mouth.

So I personally see it as null, but that's not what I was really asking you about. I asked "what leads you to say that Cass is not correcting and questioning Csarmi in this instance?", because you also said "An annoyed townie would be correcting him, questioning him," as if to imply that Cass was not doing this.

The whole case by Cass starts with "I am bothered with Csarmi blah blah". This is not a case of Cass questioning him. More on the lines of her nudging him with forced reasons. The whole tone of the post is not enquiring but of suspect.

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

I agree with your comment on Wish, and while we all know Zander likes to bus, he does it with the goal of winning games, and he has the experience to know what that means. Consider:

Zander's first bus game, relied exclusively on gut, provided no case, managed to get his partner lynched when she was town telling like crazy and had a lot of us pocketed. It bought him a pass for a while. Towns kept dying. Wait a second, how did Zander really know Talya was scum when all of Shad/Verbal/AJ/BFG were oblivious to it at the time? TMI, gets lynched, town wins.

Zander's second bus game, relies entirely on a case because 'gut' was TMI last time, crafts a really solid one because it's a lot easier to point out scummy things when you know someone is scum lolololol. Holds off the actual lynch for two days by playing up the tunnel vision, because tunnel vision can make towns fail to take notice of the actual quality of the case. Lenlo finally gets lynched, people review Zander's case and realize it was spot on all along, lock him in as town, scum wins.

Diablo: Zander cases a town. Has a few good reasons and some pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked), gets lynched instead of his target.

This game: Zander cases someone. Has a few good reasons a lot of pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked,) gets lynched instead of his target.

Yeah, Wish probably town. Would be a pretty clever and yet stupidly high-risk self-sacrifice otherwise, as either 1) town follows his lead and lynches her, then lynches him after she flips scum anyway because it was super TMI and Zander has a history, or 2) he gets outed for the case D2 or D3, still can't ensure Wish doesn't get vigged by someone who believes him beforehand, still can't ensure she isn't lynched at 3-player lylo because town is telling too hard or has confirmed PRs still living.

But Pral, couldn't the difference in tone be a simple consequence of Zander not (in what, the first 20 pages?) making Cass his committed lynch push? I can understand if you don't agree with my theory that Zander spewed Cass town, but what does his case on Wish have to do with it?

Sure, there is no standard way that Zander plays. That is what i get from your post. But, in this case, the context is the key. The scum already had a likely bus candidate in Csarmi, who was goon. Zander himself was a goon. In what world would a goon try to bus a godfather/roleblocker or whatever the PR the other two wolf might be having?

Remember, at that point there were no train happening. No pushes happening. The scum could have been desperate to push a townie lynch or bus a weaker scum. Would zander bus wish at that point? No. That is what makes wish town.

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

Blue, it's a manner of speaking. Let me paraphrase: "Salami, you are correctly reading me town, but for reasons that you have always treated as null in the past."

Whether Cass is town or scum, I'm like 99% sure that's what she meant by the "I am town" statement. She could have worded it more directly. Something like "That's funny Salami, you have always treated this as null in the past", and avoided emphasizing that she is town. That's the better way to state it, as either alignment, because it draws less suspicion, but I can easily see what was said come out of a less filtered town mouth.

So I personally see it as null, but that's not what I was really asking you about. I asked "what leads you to say that Cass is not correcting and questioning Csarmi in this instance?", because you also said "An annoyed townie would be correcting him, questioning him," as if to imply that Cass was not doing this.

The whole case by Cass starts with "I am bothered with Csarmi blah blah". This is not a case of Cass questioning him. More on the lines of her nudging him with forced reasons. The whole tone of the post is not enquiring but of suspect.

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

I agree with your comment on Wish, and while we all know Zander likes to bus, he does it with the goal of winning games, and he has the experience to know what that means. Consider:

Zander's first bus game, relied exclusively on gut, provided no case, managed to get his partner lynched when she was town telling like crazy and had a lot of us pocketed. It bought him a pass for a while. Towns kept dying. Wait a second, how did Zander really know Talya was scum when all of Shad/Verbal/AJ/BFG were oblivious to it at the time? TMI, gets lynched, town wins.

Zander's second bus game, relies entirely on a case because 'gut' was TMI last time, crafts a really solid one because it's a lot easier to point out scummy things when you know someone is scum lolololol. Holds off the actual lynch for two days by playing up the tunnel vision, because tunnel vision can make towns fail to take notice of the actual quality of the case. Lenlo finally gets lynched, people review Zander's case and realize it was spot on all along, lock him in as town, scum wins.

Diablo: Zander cases a town. Has a few good reasons and some pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked), gets lynched instead of his target.

This game: Zander cases someone. Has a few good reasons a lot of pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked,) gets lynched instead of his target.

Yeah, Wish probably town. Would be a pretty clever and yet stupidly high-risk self-sacrifice otherwise, as either 1) town follows his lead and lynches her, then lynches him after she flips scum anyway because it was super TMI and Zander has a history, or 2) he gets outed for the case D2 or D3, still can't ensure Wish doesn't get vigged by someone who believes him beforehand, still can't ensure she isn't lynched at 3-player lylo because town is telling too hard or has confirmed PRs still living.

But Pral, couldn't the difference in tone be a simple consequence of Zander not (in what, the first 20 pages?) making Cass his committed lynch push? I can understand if you don't agree with my theory that Zander spewed Cass town, but what does his case on Wish have to do with it?

Sure, there is no standard way that Zander plays. That is what i get from your post. But, in this case, the context is the key. The scum already had a likely bus candidate in Csarmi, who was goon. Zander himself was a goon. In what world would a goon try to bus a godfather/roleblocker or whatever the PR the other two wolf might be having?

Remember, at that point there were no train happening. No pushes happening. The scum could have been desperate to push a townie lynch or bus a weaker scum. Would zander bus wish at that point? No. That is what makes wish town.

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

Bah, I killed the page !!

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

Blue, it's a manner of speaking. Let me paraphrase: "Salami, you are correctly reading me town, but for reasons that you have always treated as null in the past."

Whether Cass is town or scum, I'm like 99% sure that's what she meant by the "I am town" statement. She could have worded it more directly. Something like "That's funny Salami, you have always treated this as null in the past", and avoided emphasizing that she is town. That's the better way to state it, as either alignment, because it draws less suspicion, but I can easily see what was said come out of a less filtered town mouth.

So I personally see it as null, but that's not what I was really asking you about. I asked "what leads you to say that Cass is not correcting and questioning Csarmi in this instance?", because you also said "An annoyed townie would be correcting him, questioning him," as if to imply that Cass was not doing this.

The whole case by Cass starts with "I am bothered with Csarmi blah blah". This is not a case of Cass questioning him. More on the lines of her nudging him with forced reasons. The whole tone of the post is not enquiring but of suspect.

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

I agree with your comment on Wish, and while we all know Zander likes to bus, he does it with the goal of winning games, and he has the experience to know what that means. Consider:

Zander's first bus game, relied exclusively on gut, provided no case, managed to get his partner lynched when she was town telling like crazy and had a lot of us pocketed. It bought him a pass for a while. Towns kept dying. Wait a second, how did Zander really know Talya was scum when all of Shad/Verbal/AJ/BFG were oblivious to it at the time? TMI, gets lynched, town wins.

Zander's second bus game, relies entirely on a case because 'gut' was TMI last time, crafts a really solid one because it's a lot easier to point out scummy things when you know someone is scum lolololol. Holds off the actual lynch for two days by playing up the tunnel vision, because tunnel vision can make towns fail to take notice of the actual quality of the case. Lenlo finally gets lynched, people review Zander's case and realize it was spot on all along, lock him in as town, scum wins.

Diablo: Zander cases a town. Has a few good reasons and some pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked), gets lynched instead of his target.

This game: Zander cases someone. Has a few good reasons a lot of pretty bad ones. The push backfires (and he gets peeked,) gets lynched instead of his target.

Yeah, Wish probably town. Would be a pretty clever and yet stupidly high-risk self-sacrifice otherwise, as either 1) town follows his lead and lynches her, then lynches him after she flips scum anyway because it was super TMI and Zander has a history, or 2) he gets outed for the case D2 or D3, still can't ensure Wish doesn't get vigged by someone who believes him beforehand, still can't ensure she isn't lynched at 3-player lylo because town is telling too hard or has confirmed PRs still living.

But Pral, couldn't the difference in tone be a simple consequence of Zander not (in what, the first 20 pages?) making Cass his committed lynch push? I can understand if you don't agree with my theory that Zander spewed Cass town, but what does his case on Wish have to do with it?

Sure, there is no standard way that Zander plays. That is what i get from your post. But, in this case, the context is the key. The scum already had a likely bus candidate in Csarmi, who was goon. Zander himself was a goon. In what world would a goon try to bus a godfather/roleblocker or whatever the PR the other two wolf might be having?

Remember, at that point there were no train happening. No pushes happening. The scum could have been desperate to push a townie lynch or bus a weaker scum. Would zander bus wish at that point? No. That is what makes wish town.

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

OK, I have no idea why the formatting is working properly

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

But, this is what I wanted to reply to Shad on why his argument about Zander busing doesn't apply here

Sure, there is no standard way that Zander plays. That is what i get from your post. But, in this case, the context is the key. The scum already had a likely bus candidate in Csarmi, who was goon. Zander himself was a goon. In what world would a goon try to bus a godfather/roleblocker or whatever the PR the other two wolf might be having?

Remember, at that point there were no train happening. No pushes happening. The scum could have been desperate to push a townie lynch or bus a weaker scum. Would zander bus wish at that point? No. That is what makes wish town.

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

One thing caught my eye though.

Zander's second bus game, relies entirely on a case because 'gut' was TMI last time, crafts a really solid one because it's a lot easier to point out scummy things when you know someone is scum lolololol. Holds off the actual lynch for two days by playing up the tunnel vision, because tunnel vision can make towns fail to take notice of the actual quality of the case. Lenlo finally gets lynched, people review Zander's case and realize it was spot on all along, lock him in as town, scum wins.

That is exactly the gist of my case on Cass. Her whole case against Csarmi was exactly this. Which is why I am saying it looked forced and intended to nudge rather than genuine questioning.

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

@Pral, what would scum!Lenlo have gained by claiming vig?

More than what he would have got claiming cop. I said why claiming cop is illogical (if there is a Godfather present). Claiming vig would have at least got the vig out of the woodwork

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

Pralaya- Pral almost purely here by POE. I read his ISO and I got nothing. I can see the pushes at Cass as the other wolf on the Csarmi wagon, I can see his thought processes. But then I see his WTL and I'm like wuuuuttttt? I mean, I know it's a lot of pages and a lot of stuff to get though, but I guess I don't really know what he's doing here right now. tl;dr, like his input but don't like his conclusions. Like, I can't fudging read him?

Laine's Wolf list - Cass, Celeste, Kaylee, Pralaya, NOlder

Pralaya's wolf list - Cass, Kaylee, Laine, Celeste

Uh? So you didný like my WTL list because YOU are in my list? LOL

Pralaya · January 10, 2016

But more likely I found 2 and then I also found 2 others. 50% is a bad score.

I need a dead scum today or I won't be that happy.

If you want to do it, let's start looking at the wagon. What do you think happened? Csarmi was a completely town led lynch which zander decide to join due to no other choice? If not, who in that csarmi wagon is scum?

I like this post from Pralaya, especially the underlined bit. Instead of asking Pizza about his thoughts, I would like to hear what you have to say too.

Uh? I already said multiple times that I think it is cass

[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

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