[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[alannalynn]

When you get to my name, skip me and look at the off-wagon.

I was going to skip you anyways since you lead the lynch. There's really no point.

[alannalynn]

Csarmi (7) Cass Wish Kaylee Alanna Lenlo Zander Pizza

 

*note: I changed Kaylee to a light green to reflect doubt

Links to other analyses: Cass, Wish, Kaylee, Alanna

Lenlo on Csarmi:
First mention is in a reads list "Grey/light red, do something. Might vote you for the heck of it."

Reaction to his claim "Why... Why are we claiming."

More doubts on the claim "Full claim or dont claim at all. Character claims mean nothing."

This one is in response to Wish saying Csarmi is getting lynched: "Is he now? And when was this decided?" The reaction here is kind of weird. At this point Cass and Pizza are on the Csarmi train (I think I have that right) and Wish is going back and looking at Kaylee evidence while Pizza is switching things over to Csarmi pretty quickly.

Doesn't think Csarmi is lying about his character, and if he is "there's no way he lives through the game. I don't think he's lying"

I find it odd that Lenlo neither mentions nor jumps on the Kaylee case, nor the Csarmi case. He does mediate a little with the Pizza/Zander fight but that's all I see so far. He questions why Cass isn't around.

Then this: 

"Pizza/Zander fight is stupid. Honestly, the only people who I /want/ to lynch today are Celeste and the missing wonder brothers, Pral and Csarmi. Everyone else has been pretty good or I think will be figured out easier later.
Really ill lynch anyone that isnt Pizza, Zander, Nolder, Shad, Turin."

Throws shade at Zander for his habit of bussing teammates (that would be Pizza in this case). (Note: Zander/Pizza fight distraction?)

This: "For me its Csarmi/Zander today, leaning Csarmi." and a VOTE

He is quick to get in on the town core talk with Pizza Shad Nolder, still thinks Zander is town though.

Very much wants to lynch Celeste

But he is sticking around for the Csarmi lynch; wolves don't want to wait around for a flip of their teammate. And I don't see him trying to gain traction elsewhere. He didn't add flames to the Pizza/Zander fight.

Csarmi on Lenlo:
"Also Len/Laine are literally never w/w there."
"Think I'm at Shad and Cass as villagers, Pizza and Leno as possible villagers."
"Vanilla Town And yea Len we have been through this before. I shall humour you." (expanding on his claim)
"Dont lynch Shad, Cass and Len ever. I believe Turin."
"Cass i am totally sure of. Len/Shad very close."
"Leno I just love you man."

Anddd that's it

Conclusion: Pending.
I can see this both ways right now. And I already have a strong read so I'll explain the "Lenlo is mafia" side.

The first mention in his reads list could be he's frustrated with a teammate and has to suspect him because he's not being active enough on thread. The other posts about Csarmi claiming: frustration/confusion again.

Then the post where he said "Is he now? And when was this decided?" shows Lenlo is completely out of the loop. He hasn't paid attention to the Kaylee case, didn't get involved with Pizza's case on Csarmi, isn't involved in the thread with like under 20 hours until deadline. He doesn't know what's going on, basically.

In talks about Csarmi's character, he believes him and says that if he's lying, it'll be taken care of basically. Easy way to add support to a character claim and give it credit, even though we all know mafia are generally given fake claims. (I also know nothing about WoW so yeah.. I'm here to play mafia lol)

He still shows interest in voting Celeste, mentioning lynching her twice instead of Csarmi while his train is gaining traction, but doesn't make any move to switch the trains over (granted, this is more of a townie move, he's looking elsewhere).

On the other side of the road, Csarmi is quick to read Lenlo and call him town and tells us never to lynch him. This could be for a scum mate or for town.

If we're going with Lenlo being town though, this could make sense all the same. Lenlo would still be frustrated with Csarmi for not being in the game (Nolderesque?) and frustrated with the claim. You could read the "Is he now? And when was this decided?" as surprise becasue he's literally not caught up in the thread at the moment. He does NOT actively try to derail the lynch onto Celeste or Zander or Kaylee or anyone and ends up voting Csarmi. Looks good responding with a quick town core to Pizza's question and then sticking around to see the flip.

I could go either way with Lenlo right now, so I'm going to move him down to a light green.

[alannalynn]

 

The cat gif that I posted makes me really uncomfortable. I want to catch the kitty.

Declawing a cat is pretty mean. It's like cutting off someone's fingers. :\

 

this is horrible

 

I literally de-friend anyone that says declawing is a good thing.

[alannalynn]

Un-friend?

 

Is this a verb now? I don't know what's going on

[alannalynn]

OKayyyyy so I'm going to go to bed. I gave myself until 3am and I'm 100% sure Zander's ISO will take more than 10 minutes. LOL

 

If someone else wants to pick up Zander and do it that's fine, otherwise I wont be casing until tomorrow night since I have friend obligations tomorrow and wont be around much.

[Askthepizzaguy]

BTW it should be noted for accuracy, at least two of the off-wagon people were off-wagon because I asked them to not hammer.

 

That gives Celeste and Nolder a pass for not voting Csarmi, and technically everyone.

 

That part of the analysis should be null, focus only on other aspects after Csarmi got to about L-2 ish.

[alannalynn]

I'll get there eventually. I think I'll just post a reads list for now to show where I'm att...

[alannalynn]

Alanna
Turin*

Pizza
Wish
Cass
Shad

Kaylee
Lenlo

Pral
Celeste
Zander
Nolder

 

No complaints about Nolder. I need to look over his slot. He's going to sit there for now because of raisons.

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

When you get to my name, skip me and look at the off-wagon.

I was going to skip you anyways since you lead the lynch. There's really no point.

 

 

Dead and ignore-moded is my goal this game. I will achieve it.

 

That's approx 500 posts out of 2700 so far that will suddenly vanish, as a known deceased villager needs to be sussed no more.

 

A dead Zander on top of this disappears an equal amount of posts, causing the thread to be more than 1/3 gone, and far easier to read.

[alannalynn]

okay bedtime bye

[alannalynn]

 

 

When you get to my name, skip me and look at the off-wagon.

I was going to skip you anyways since you lead the lynch. There's really no point.

 

 

Dead and ignore-moded is my goal this game. I will achieve it.

 

That's approx 500 posts out of 2700 so far that will suddenly vanish, as a known deceased villager needs to be sussed no more.

 

A dead Zander on top of this disappears an equal amount of posts, causing the thread to be more than 1/3 gone, and far easier to read.

 

I never put anyone on ignore. I threaten it, but don't do it. I don't even know HOW to put someone on ignore or what it would achieve.

[Pralaya]

Good lord, guys.

 

We got the scum, yay. But, we added 50 more pages during the night? Sigh.

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

 

 

When you get to my name, skip me and look at the off-wagon.

I was going to skip you anyways since you lead the lynch. There's really no point.

 

 

Dead and ignore-moded is my goal this game. I will achieve it.

 

That's approx 500 posts out of 2700 so far that will suddenly vanish, as a known deceased villager needs to be sussed no more.

 

A dead Zander on top of this disappears an equal amount of posts, causing the thread to be more than 1/3 gone, and far easier to read.

 

I never put anyone on ignore. I threaten it, but don't do it. I don't even know HOW to put someone on ignore or what it would achieve.

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/index.php?app=core&module=usercp&tab=core&area=ignoredusers

 

When someone dies and is revealed to be a non-information villager role (in other words, not a watcher, tracker, seer, or mason) there is very little further to be gained from reading their posts for clues about who other villagers are, or who the wolves are, because they generally don't know more than you do.

 

You can speculate if they were accurate with their suspicions, or just strong player killed, or power-role hunted, but you don't need to read their posts every time you re-read the thread, unless that's specifically what you want to do.

 

By putting them temporarily on ignore mode, you can reduce the size of the thread, often by hundreds of posts. For players like myself or Zander, if we survive several days that could be a thousand posts you don't need to scroll past anymore.

 

This is also useful for village seers who have located villagers. Now you can find the posts of your suspects more easily.

 

You can continue to read this player's new posts by clicking view it on the thread. There's a little bar there that indicates a hidden post.

 

This is an extremely useful tool for re-reading large threads. No one would take it personally.

 

After all the hunting I do, I can be helpful one of two ways- I can continue hunting and catch the remaining wolves, or more likely, eat a murder and disappear from the game, posts and all, making it far simpler for my teammates to read the thread without me being in their way.

 

Ignore mode. It's actually really useful.

 

Don't ignore mode dead wolves, they do tend to give off clues. Information roles should be read carefully for breadcrumbs before ignoring them, if ever.

[Pralaya]

Anyway, I have no idea who led the lynch or what happened.

 

What I do know is that Csarmi hates being scum. Out of the handful of scum games of his I have seen, he tried getting replaced in 2 of them. I wouldn't be surprised if he asked to be bused ( he did that in one game I was scum with him).

 

I would want to read through keeping that in mind.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Just ignore their posts. There's an option for that. You can un-ignore them from that panel very easily.

[Pralaya]

Skimming time. There is no way I am going to go through this game in detail.

[Kaylee]

[v]Csarmi[/v]

A bit late.

[Kaylee]

 

 

 

 

Specifically, the reasons given for not wanting to lynch Kaylee felt like someone who knows, despite my casing of Kaylee (is good case, convinced me anyway) that it's somehow still wrong.

 

He didn't even really begin to consider it. But he kept feeding me data to hammer her with, like a good little scum.

 

This overshadows my original read on him being csarming and helpful.

That's an interesting claim.

Far more interesting than your case imo.

 

Can you quote Csarmi doing this?

Nolder is a much better look now, considering he picked up the ball.

 

For reference the sequence of events which caused the cascade onto Csarmi happened before this post, some folks had named Csarmi.

 

For a full re-read, start at the point where I ISO'ed Kaylee and voted her. Observe Csarmi's reactions and the folks who named Csarmi, and the folks who did nothing to push Csarmi from that moment onward.

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/96393-basicstandard-warcraft-war-of-the-ancients-mafia-night-one/page-83?do=findComment&comment=3588938

 

Read from here onward.

 

Some folks may have had iffy feelings about Csarmi before this moment, note those please.

 

The key turning points are when the case on Kaylee stalls out and most folks don't want to lynch her, and Csarmi's name begins popping up more.

 

After that, mafia distancing should have occurred, but the folks who were pushing Csarmi the most and particularly before the above quote between myself and Nolder should be given some kudos.

 

Csarmi's fate wasnt really sealed until after this point. Someone on Csarmi's wagon was scum, imo. Find who.

Good point actually.

[Kaylee]

Csarmi (7) Cass Wish Kaylee Alanna Lenlo Zander Pizza

 

Starting With Cass. Her vote was way before Pizza's case and the shift to Csarmi. This is her post here. She explains what she sees of his meta. At this point Csarmi was receiving no heat and he was her strongest scum lean. She follows through after the Kaylee case and still keeps her vote on Csarmi stating she's okay with a lynch between the two of Pral or Csarmi, that link is here. Again supports her vote here with this after Wish's request of more explanation:

"I've only played with Town Csarmi. Strong impressions - he is interested and active in hunting scum. He challenges absolutely anybody and anything he finds remotely scummy/stupid, and he challenges them hard and he is not at all easy to please. Completely unlike here, imo."

I can still see Cass working in other areas and is worried about not having meta on Csarmi's scum game, but she cases him a little here too and here.

 

Csarmi on Cass: He town reads her quickly and doesn't budge.

"Cass is looking town. Sounds genuine and not even the least bit stressed"

"Manic Cass is townic Cass. Agree with her self-assessment, Pizza's approach, and just about ready to clear Cass there. Think I'm at Shad and Cass as villagers.... (snip) "

"Oh righ5 reads stuff. Dont lynch Shad, Cass and Len ever. I believe Turin. Second tier is Pray and Kaylee. "

"Cass i am totally sure of. Len/Shad very close."

 

Other than that he seems to be encouraging her to play and apologizes that he couldn't' talk to her in real time.

Conclusion: Cass probably town.

Agreed, nicely done. Ok tinfoil over for Cass.

[Kaylee]

Laine doing what she's doing right now might be enough for me to lock her into that untouchable category fwiw.

Was thinking the same thing. Why, as wolf, would she di this much work and at night? She wouldn't imho.

[Kaylee]

 

 

I want to be thorough, so I'll sit and think on the Csarmi-Kaylee thing.

 

My initial strong feeling about the matter was that Csarmi was unwilling to be responsible for being on the wrong side of history on Kaylee, so town-read her, but added fuel to my fire deliberately just in case I was a runaway train on Kaylee.

 

The opposing theory is that he wanted to try to persuade me that Kaylee was a villager when she was not.

 

I don't really believe the opposing theory and heavily favor the first option, but I still want to look at it closely first. When I've gotten rest.

I know.. I almost put her light green precisely for this reason. But then if you think of their interactions it wouldn't really make any sense unless they planned it that way in the QT.

 

Kaylee: I"m going to be completely unsure about you and keep you in my null POE all game

Csarmi: I"m going to strongly townread you for no fudging reason

 

Makes no sense to me.

Not my style. Would've made me uncomfortable to be his scummate and him read me so strongly. Would've made me put something more on my read of him.

 

I didn't have a better read before on him because I tend to read him wrong...a lot.

[Kaylee]

I get nulling Csarmi. His game wasn't worthy of a strong villager read, so best bet would be to null him if you're not pushing him. Otherwise it causes questions.

 

The reciprocation... Csarmi strongly town-reading her, well, suppose Csarmi doesn't have a lot of time this game, and Kaylee is otherwise very pleasant and on a lot of people's good side. Probably want to at least try to keep her alive.

 

And defending your wolf partner can lead to town reads of them if you die, these days.

 

Doesn't need to be planned. This can happen on its own spontaneously.

 

Where that theory breaks down is that I really sense the motive for Csarmi shooting me all those links was to give me more ammo in going after a villager.

 

Because if his objective was to defend a scum Kaylee, he would find those links himself and cite a defense of Kaylee himself, which was strong, rather than relying on me to come to that conclusion myself.

 

If his objective is to defend a town Kaylee, but to "look helpful", he can give me those links. And I think it plays out more that way. That way he looks good if I lynch Kaylee and she's town.

 

Does he ever give me those links to look helpful, and simply state he thinks Kaylee is town, while Kaylee is his scum partner? I'm struggling to see that scenario.

 

It could benefit him either way. If Kaylee gets lynched, he contributed to it with the links. If Kaylee doesn't get lynched, because the links help me decide she's behaving normally, then Kaylee-partner stays alive.

 

But it's a stretch to think that's actually the planned outcome. It's also hard to view the entire sequence of events as an unplanned outcome between Kaylee-Csarmi w/w.

 

If it's really this easy then this day one is one of the better day one's I've seen on this site, despite all the struggling.

Bold: except I was on a lot of lists for POE/WTL before your case of I remember correctly. At that point I, as scum, typically tell my team to buss me, esp if it'll make them look better.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'mma back!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pralaya did you get caught up?

[Askthepizzaguy]

It was at that exact moment that Zander realized... holy poop, pizza will outpost me and half the game thinks I'm scum.

 

Packing it in and packing it up
And sneaking away and buggering up

And chickening out and pissing about

Yes, bravely he is throwing in the sponge