Age of Legends [standard] Mafia - Game Over

[Nynaeve]

[/tinfoil]

[Thane Vakarian]

Kiv likes to talk, and for me it's a sign of fear.... he's afraid you might be wolfin' here, and that you would be our dimise. (you're not, right?)

[Nynaeve]

Kiv likes to talk, and for me it's a sign of fear.... he's afraid you might be wolfin' here, and that you would be our dimise. (you're not, right?)

 

I'm not. But I'm not as convinced it's fear necessarily. Could also be prep work. Though... in that situation Shad wouldn't really be around anyhow.... so I'd be more concerned if he was trying to appeal to Zander.

 

I guess time will tell.

[Thane Vakarian]

ftr: i doubt you or Kiv are wolf. As i've said before. We should follow through with Nolder/Laine, and then see where we end up. 

[Kivam]

Though I have to say.... Kiv, considering how low you think the probability of me being scum is... you sure seem to be talking a lot about it.

I think it's the only way we lose the game. Low probability, but high risk. And since i wouldn't go there to F3, if i want comments from other townies on it i can't wait until they're dead before bringing it up. I'm in full wisdom of crowds mode atp, in case you didn't notice :)

[Nynaeve]

[v]Nolder[/v]

 

 

Carai an Caldazar!

 

 

 

 

#Nyngeekingout

[Nynaeve]

ftr: i doubt you or Kiv are wolf. As i've said before. We should follow through with Nolder/Laine, and then see where we end up. 

 

*nods*

[Nynaeve]

 

Though I have to say.... Kiv, considering how low you think the probability of me being scum is... you sure seem to be talking a lot about it.

I think it's the only way we lose the game. Low probability, but high risk. And since i wouldn't go there to F3, if i want comments from other townies on it i can't wait until they're dead before bringing it up. I'm in full wisdom of crowds mode atp, in case you didn't notice :)

 

 

Why though? That part I'm fuzzy on. If you end up on F3 with me and Zander.... and with you saying you'd never lynch Zander (me neither, ftr).... how would Thane/Shad's opinion matter?

[Shad_]

 

I hope so to.  But if I am going to lose, it's the least embarrassing way to do it, if that makes sense.

 

It does and it doesn't.  It does, because you're sure of your read.  It doesn't because I've been pointing out all the ways she could be scum (ways I am picking up because I know I'm town and therefore know it's a possibility) and you're refusing to go back and reassess with fresh eyes to see for yourself if they fit.  (It's also why I'm asking Nolder or Laine to chime in; if it isn't only coming from me then you'll know for 100% certain it's something a townie can see and therefore worth looking at).  So if it turns out Nyn is the last scum (and again, I don't think she is, so I think this is all moot), you'll be embarrassed about not putting in that work.

 

IOW:

 

Go back, do the work, conclude Nyn is town, get it right = hooray, town wins, nothing to be ashamed of!

Go back, do the work, conclude townNyn is a potential scum, misclear someone else and town loses = damn, but still nothing to be ashamed of.

Ignore it, don't do the work, Nyn is town = yay town win, nothing to be ashamed of.

Ignore it, don't do the work, Nyn is scum and your read gets sheeped to a town loss = damn, and something to be ashamed of.

 

JMO, but only way to get embarrassed in this game, in either alignment, is to not put in the work

 

 

Problem is I'm dead in 4 hours.  I was mid-way through a Laine ISO but tbh she's dying no matter what.  I could just post what I've got on her and spend what time I can put in between now and EoD on Nyn.  Fair?

[Thane Vakarian]

fair enough Shad. I think we all (except Laine) agree about the way to follow.

[Shad_]

if i am one of the top posters in a game, something would be off, lol.

 

I try to say what i have to say in as few posts as possible *nods*

 

Is that how I got you lynched in PF? 

[Nynaeve]

Kiv are you doing anything special for Rosh Ashana?

[Thane Vakarian]

 

if i am one of the top posters in a game, something would be off, lol.

 

I try to say what i have to say in as few posts as possible *nods*

 

Is that how I got you lynched in PF? 

 

perhaps it is, lol. 

 

Vengeance will be mine on that, though... you just wait. 

[Shad_]

Though I have to say.... Kiv, considering how low you think the probability of me being scum is... you sure seem to be talking a lot about it. 

 

1) Scum have to kill you.  The best thing they could possibly do is start the doubt now while still putting you off for F3.

 

2) Town want to win and might be legitimately concerned about landing in F3 with you and Zander. 

 

Not every scum is going to do 1.  Not every town is going to do 2.  Kiv would do either imo.

[Nynaeve]

 

Though I have to say.... Kiv, considering how low you think the probability of me being scum is... you sure seem to be talking a lot about it. 

 

1) Scum have to kill you.  The best thing they could possibly do is start the doubt now while still putting you off for F3.

 

2) Town want to win and might be legitimately concerned about landing in F3 with you and Zander. 

 

Not every scum is going to do 1.  Not every town is going to do 2.  Kiv would do either imo.

 

 

Yes, I understand. But I have the advantage of knowing my own alignment. Which is why I'm more concerned about option 1.

[Nynaeve]

Nvm. I'm gonna cut the tinfoil because I'm working myself up, quite possibly, for nothing. 

[Nynaeve]

Deep breaths  lol

[Shad_]

 

 

Though I have to say.... Kiv, considering how low you think the probability of me being scum is... you sure seem to be talking a lot about it. 

 

1) Scum have to kill you.  The best thing they could possibly do is start the doubt now while still putting you off for F3.

 

2) Town want to win and might be legitimately concerned about landing in F3 with you and Zander. 

 

Not every scum is going to do 1.  Not every town is going to do 2.  Kiv would do either imo.

 

 

Yes, I understand. But I have the advantage of knowing my own alignment. Which is why I'm more concerned about option 1.

 

 

Oh I'm definitely more concerned about option 1. 

[Shad_]

Beginning of my ISO on Laine:

#103 -- Skimmed through, feeling town on Clov, no other real thoughts yet.  My first fight with Calder was well under way at this point.

#113 -- The AJ FOS.  Here was my take on the whole thing from before:

 

 

 

-snip-

1) I'm not actually playing, that's probably what's sketching you out. I'm gonna pull a Crusher and float until endgame on jokes

-snip-

2) re: 132 on Clov's reaction to me FOSing Andrej.. idk I didn't really expect him to jump in and call out my FOS on Andrej's meta with such a post.


3)

 

On the note of me being preachy and helpful, I talked early game strat in Belicheat where Laine was a wolf so she definitely knows at the least I would do it as town.

Sort of bugged how she threw mud then backed off immediately when the accusation wasn't even an accurate one.

You realize I wasn't serious, right?

I'm personally a tad bit... idk curious(?) about this post being 30 minutes after your initial post saying I'm "sketching you out". I'm not sure if it's the wording, or the time frame (ie you bringing it back up to keep me in the spotlight) or what. I can't say it's anything I'm overly bothered about and maybe the feeling will pass in the morning.

1) I wouldn't count on it, chica

2) Except your meta on me wasn't even correct. You've seen me do it as both alignments so characterizing it only as part of a scum game isn't accurate. Weren't you joking anyway?

3) No, otherwise I wouldn't have brought it up again. What does the timing have to do with anything? I was mulling over what I thought about you and realized I had done so recently in a game as town and thought that you should be aware of that. It's sort of my job to bring stuff to the spotlight that I find inaccurate or false - so I don't see the point there either. Do you expect me to let you falsely represent me and NOT say anything about it?

 
I guess because I didn't take Laine's FOS post seriously I thought it a bit sketchy that AJ did and eventually reached a wtl on her.  Rereading I can't really hate AJ here.  Red crossed my mind too.  And for me it's not a feeling that Laine tried to push AJ and backed away when it failed.  I do believe it was a joke.  It's how Laine dealt with being questioned about it that comes off kind of weird.

 

 

 

The fact he's being helpful means ~nothing towards his alignment. AJ is a very good player so I don't think he's incapable of making that post as mafia at all. I think Mafia!AJ would probably WANT a bunch of early fakepeeks, since they (theoretically) would have a lower likeliness of being accurate and that helps narrow the NK poe, but I don't think he's going to come in and recommend it - especially when a handful of us recently played with him in the same setup when he waited to post a peek for accuracy reasons. He was town, and I'm positive he's smart enough to know the sudden change of heart would stand out.

That being said, I don't see how it would ever warrant a FoS. I'm giving him 0 towncred for trying to be helpful, but I don't see a reasonable argument why anybody would suspect him for being mafia for it.

This. I'm assuming that was a joke post from Laine, because otherwise the thoughtprocess of "only scum AJ tries to be helpful" would make no sense at all.

ding ding ding! Though I have told Andrej he comes off very helpful townie as mafia before. He's also an overall nice guy.. so not really alignment indicative *shrug* His wolf doesn't show this early anyways lol and I'd be the biggest fool to think I could read, well, pretty much anyone ever.

 
AJ left this part of the post out, but red feels awkward to me.
 

 

Andrej being helpful townie and preaching. Fos

I take this back reading in context. Andrej looking good ITT

And then this, I don't know what there is to "take back". Laine had been characterizing it as a joke.

I'll grant that she made a joke. It didn't come off well. The problem about the whole thing is that once she took some heat for it she started waffling in whether she should continue to treat it as a joke or roll with 'it was a serious suss but I changed my mind'.
 
I don't know if it all should really bother me or if this is just nitpicking.  At any rate I don't feel bad about AJ sussing her at this point.  Laine, thoughts?

~~Overall it doesn't bother me.  Felt maaaaybe a little too nervous about being sussed early, but at the same time I can understand going wtf when you make a joke and all of a sudden people are pointing fingers at you.  "His wolf doesn't show this early anyways lol and I'd be the biggest fool to think I could read, well, pretty much anyone ever." is super awkward.

~~It ends with the "I'm going to be a little bothered that it was so easy for mafia to sit back in this exchange and let it happen" statement, condition being if Shad flips town.  I think this really is a bit of a problem.  I don't see how Laine's mind gets there when she's sussing Calder.

#174 -- Doesn't want to be a mislynch candidate.  (1)

#176 -- Not planning to get mislynched any time soon.  (2)

#435 -- Annoyed by Nolder's placeholder vote.  ~~Understandable.  Nolder clarified 'placeholder' for me correctly so it's not a point against either of them.

#479 -- Notices she's at the bottom of some POEs.  Needs to fix that.  (3?)

#483 -- Worried about Zander's lack of activity ~~understandable

#501 -- Not sure if Nolder ever explained his scum read of Kiv.  (He did.)

#510 -- big catch-up here:

To "Too easy probably, but it crossed my mind." she says "This post really pinged me when I read it and the followup is "meh"...."  ~~Should I be concerned she didn't say anything like "nervous about Shad" in #103?

Thinks Calder doesn't make much sense but at the same time she's a little uncomfortable that I would miss something obvious.  Agrees that me "dodging posts" was bad but might not be scummy.

Thinks I'm being defensive.

Worried that Clov is town reading Calder already, agrees that Shad doesn't look great.

Asks me and Calder productive questions.

"interesting from Zander: this would destroy the credibility that Shad just missed the Calder-talk" and "from Shad... I think I would like this post better if you straight up answered the accusation instead of brushing it off again. You're a little sloppy this game" irt Zander noting I'd made 7 posts in the sign-up thread so I should have known about Calder.  ~~I'm a little bugged by this one.  I said I hadn't caught up before I started posting in sign-up (Calder's posts came well before mine if anyone bothered to check) and went on to give Zander a town lean for his actions.  Laine's sort of ignoring that and sussing me for dodging posts again.

Concludes Zander, Clov, AJ town, Calder and Shad questionable, notes that in PF her gut on me said scum but my content indicated town, here it's the opposite.

~~Overall I think this is a pretty solid catch-up.  Laine missed some things, but I know from PF that when she's really tired/pressed for time that can happen.  I know from Belichick that Laine can ask some pretty intelligent questions as scum.

#600 -- Thinks my push on Calder is defensive.  Wants to know who I'm sussing besides Calder.  ~~I don't get it at all but AJ thought the same thing.  Bit bewildering but if one town who knows my meta thought that then I suppose two could.  

#615 -- Mentions how obv town Thane was in PF

#624 -- Tries to engage Calder

#637 -- "I don't know how to play this stupid game anyways" ~~another one of these goofy tack-ons at the end of her post, similar to "I'd be the biggest fool to think I could read, well, pretty much anyone ever."  I don't know, they strike me as forced.

#640 -- "Calder... there's only like 13 players. And you only really have to keep up with 12 apart from yourself. Who did you think I was, some random posting on the thread? I feel so unloved. Thanks."  ~~A little forced maybe?

#826 -- Working on her read of me, seems to be drawing town conclusions, disagrees with AJ's argument that I know Crusher is town.  ~~Can't hate this.  I thought before she made a hard switch from scum to town on me, but this looks like she's developing it more carefully.

#833 -- Reads list, has Hallia and Crusher near the bottom with Calder, Nolder, and Thane.  She doesn't explain everything but what she says makes sense.  ~~Both scum in her D1 scum pile?  Looking like town!Laine here.

#840 -- Responds to my TMI callout saying there are three scum in the game, so at least some of them were sitting back and letting the Shad/Calder fight do its thing.  ~~umm... ok, don't know if that leaves me feeling any better.

#845 -- Talks about Calder.  She's consistant with previous statements here.

 

 

 

Looking good where I left off.  Things of note are possible TMI, defensiveness (I was going to count all the I'm not getting lynched style posts.  A few of them came as overreactions), and lack of activity today.  Because let's face it, if Laine or Nolder are scum they have zero motivation to keep trying (more town points for Nolder, that).  I was also really bothered by EoD1 when she was acting like she couldn't make up her mind between me and Crusher.  It felt like she was digging for an excuse to vote me and only jumped on Crush when she couldn't find one.  Because based on her reads and statements pre-Clov test, Crush was very, very obviously the correct person for her to vote between us.  I hated her sussing Thane D2 for not voting when Thane accomplished two consecutive no lynch days in PF as town.  HATED IT.  And it really irritated me that she was AtEing at me during the D1 showdown.  The whole "AND I WAS TOWN IN THAT GAME, WASN'T I SHAD" as if anyone was sussing her.  It was overreactive.

 

Unfortunately I didn't get to any of that yet in my ISO.

 

[v]Laine[/v]

 

Kivam second.  Nolder third.  He's town.

[Shad_]

Erm, I guess she wasn't arguing that she was TOWN in that game, she was arguing that she was RIGHT in that game.  So nix that point.  This is why I wanted to do a full ISO first.  <_<

[Shad_]

Fwiw I think Nolder last would be the safest way to secure no Nyn lynch in so far as scum!Kivam is going to fight like a rabid wolf at F3 and Zander might be pretty hesitant to vote Laine.

[Nynaeve]

Good ISO

[Thane Vakarian]

Zander would need to put some faith in pops for once

[Nynaeve]

It bothers me that Laine isn't around right now. I hope she shows. 

[Nynaeve]

ftr, I wasn't a huge fan of her talk about her never getting mislynched. And her dissing herself for being bad at mafia.