Escape From The Carnival Of Horrors! Game Thread [Mafia Win]

[Cory Caboose]

D2.1 Vote Count

 

Kaylee (1): Red2111

Hallia (2): Leelou, Sili Quirrels

 

Not Voting (8): Verbal32, Thane Vakarian, Hallia, Nolder, TinaHel, The Crusher, Kaylee, Andrej

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

 

[Andrej]

Idk man. I don't think anything of that actually makes *her* Mafia. Seems to me she's just returned to her lurking ways, which makes me sad.

 

This lynch feels kind of scapegoatey to me. We didn't gather much info from Dice and I think we'll find even less with Hallia.

[Andrej]

Better for a Vig target imo.

[Sili Quirrels]

But she's not even lurking the thread. She dropped out of it.

 

That's kind of my point.

[Andrej]

Then let someone shoot her at Night. Lynching her feels like a waste imo and I don't think any of that behavior is a sure fire sign that she got a Mafia pm.

 

I'd rather swing someone a lot more controversial with info to be gleaned from. I can't shake the feeling I got towards EOD yesterday thru this point.

 

[v]Nolder[/v]

[Sili Quirrels]

What makes you think someone can vig her?

 

This reminds me quite strongly of the marlfox game where people confused inactivity with engagement. Hallia is actually pretty good with her reads and thread interaction, especially in her last two games with me. I'm used to her demonstrating clean progression as town, while she's only been so absent mentally in that marlfox game.

Then let someone shoot her at Night. Lynching her feels like a waste imo and I don't think any of that behavior is a sure fire sign that she got a Mafia pm.

I'd rather swing someone a lot more controversial with info to be gleaned from. I can't shake the feeling I got towards EOD yesterday thru this point.

[v]Nolder[/v]

It sounds like you're saying we can't lynch Hallia unless we're sure she's scum, but there will never be a player behavior that gives us 100% accuracy. Reserving those cases that aren't for vigilantes to handle is really bad.

 

As for your suggestion we lynch someone controversial, that's equally bad. No extra-information is ever gleamed from lynching a villager. We lynch the most likely wolf EVERY time.

[Andrej]

There could or could not be a Vig. Perhaps I have a gun and that was my subtle way of telling you I'd kill her N2? Who knows. The point I'm making is that I doubt we gain very much info from her lynch. Give me an idea of what you think you'll gain from her flip as either alignment, if you would please.

 

What I'm saying is the case you're making for her being scum isn't bulletproof. Nothing you point out isn't something myself (and I'm sure others) haven't seen her do as a townie before.

 

What makes you so sure Nolder is a villager? What makes Hallia the most likely wolf iyo?

[Sili Quirrels]

Yeah, sorry, no, I'm not floating the pr hint until you prove there's a vig.

 

If she flips scum, we can use it to reassess everyone on her wagon, and nolder probably isn't a wolf either judging from her callous vote.

 

And... don't see how she does this as town. Last I remember it she was a lot more pure. Even in the Firefly game, she actually interacted a lot with the thread. (I'll have a second look though - they were some time ago).

[Andrej]

I'll take the last paragraph and paraphrase it.

 

"If she's town we learn jack $h*t"

[Andrej]

Also answer the last two questions in my previous post please.

[Sili Quirrels]

What makes you so sure Nolder is a villager? What makes Hallia the most likely wolf iyo?

They aren't mutually exclusive. They could both be villagers, but Nolder does sound sincere. He had a good op.

 

Recently the pacing of his posts irt what he responds to is consistent with character and pov, and tone is good. He also shows a good understanding of thread flow and a strong inquisitiveness that I identify with a villager pov.

 

And ya, were Hallia town we learn nothing, but the same can be said of anybody we lynch. And if instead we vig. scum, we learn less than if we had lynched them. So lynch scum. Shoot maybe townies. That's how this rocket goes.

[Andrej]

So lynch scum. Shoot maybe townies.

Case in point.

 

Although I would amend that to "Shoot ambiguous slots."

[Sili Quirrels]

Hallia, despite not being the most controversial pick, is still in my opinion the best shot we have of lynching scum. If a vig wants to shoot someone, they should be shooting someone less obvious.

[Andrej]

Well, I've said my piece.

 

I don't agree with you but I can see where you're coming from.

 

Seeing as how we seem to be the only ones playing atm I'm gonna leave the thread for a while and let some others come in to give their opinions.

[Cory Caboose]

[Andrej]

*gives Cory a belated hug*

[Sili Quirrels]

Post count doesn't mean much without context but I put together Hallia's ISOs:

 

 

Firefly Game Halia ISO - 100 posts over 5 rl days. Night posts allowed. She is among the first in the thread. Seems to be engaged.

 

Tom's Game Halia ISO - 15 posts over 5 rl days. She was at Disney land from the 11th to the 16th at the beginning of the game it seems. Night posts not allowed. Catches up to the thread before interacting twice in the ISO, but is more or less engaged once she has. Is multitabling the marlfox game for the first 9 or so days too.

 

Marlfox Game Halia ISO - 46 posts over 5 rl days. Lot of fluff/hollow posts.  Night posts allowed.

 

This Game Halia ISO - 9 posts over 5 rl days. Night posts allowed.

 

 

Analysis: posts a lot of content when town, with clearly defined purpose, and persistent scum hunting. Posts about half as much as scum.

 

Town Hallia sample:

 

 

 

 

Oh my gosh really?  You're whining because I wasn't here on a Friday, when I was at work, and overnight because well, I'm on the West Coast and you're q.q'ing at me at before 6am my time?

 

Two reasons why Darthe just spiked up my list:

 

I haven't forgotten when he tried to undercut my suspicion of Krak.  I would also not underestimate him to be the type to hard-bus.

 

Darthe is a good enough player to not target me at night, and leave me alive to do EXACTLY what he's doing right now, as either SK OR Mafia.

 

##Vote: Darthe

 

 

 

Scum Hallia sample:

 

 

 

 

I'm liking Dices play this game. I would say he's town, personally. This confidence is good, and I've seen him get flustered as scum. He isn't really having any trouble here.

 

I think none of you are in the right.

 

##Vote: Arsis

 

I feel like he's done nothing but be opportunistic in this situation, and misrep my slot.

 

 

 

I noted while going through the Marlfox game, the predominant difference in content is Hallia is a lot more about driving agendas than investigating and pressing suspects. And on a superficial level she also says a lot of things that don't have anything to do with being a villager at the outset of the marlfox iso.

 

 

I'm going to compare her progression on me in the Marlfox Game, and her progression on Nolder since we both misrepresent her and she reacts to it.

 

Progression on me:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hallia's done a bit of emotional manipulation this game. It's something that would be extremely repugnant, the way cory described it. And I agree, because I almost feel the same.

But conversely, it's a hydra which means meta should be applied loosely.

What??! I've played this game openly. I WANT you to show me where I did that.

It's 120 pages lol. I remember you expressing yourself in an emotional way, in a manner that would be straightforward if you were town, or emotional manipulation if you were a wolf.

"Hallia manipulating people!"

"Where?"

"I don't know, but you did it!"

 

She leaves me alone once I town read her, and until Tom starts a cfd on me.

 

 

See,

##Sili

 

 

 

Progression on Nolder:

 

 

 

Up through page 8:

 

Sili came off as grumpy with his mini-tirade on page 6, but it seems like he's calmed.

 

Ok I'm caught up. 

There's nothing to comment on really imo.

Everyone is still just going on about Sili's idea and what they think others would think and blah blah blah.

 

Moving past that, Tina kind of had a cold opening was hoping for a bit more from her.

Verbal is on top of his game today imo gonna keep eyes on him.

Andrej is moving back into my null pile. Sorry dude you just look like you're piggybacking off what other people are saying.

I'm worried about Hallia this is the type of behavior she has when scum imo. A hit and run.

Crusher and Red both had typical posts but glad to see they aren't MIA.

 

Hmm after thinking about it only two people I'm worried about right now are Thane and Dice.

Thane I just haven't seen anything notable from whatsoever and Dice got kind of defensive over the "strong/weak" thing.

Which to be fair could have been just a natural reaction to being called weak.

 

I'm going to vote Thane for now and see where that goes.

 

[v]Thane[/v]

This strikes me as odd, because as I recall you've repeatedly come after me because I do this as both alignments, and now you're picking that it's only my scum alignment?

 

Vote: Nol

 

 

[Sili Quirrels]

Going over her iso this game one more time...

[Sili Quirrels]

This game is too similar to her other games in respect to quality of content.

 

[unvote] [v]Leelou[/v]

[Sili Quirrels]

Current POE (Hallia and Nolder moved up, Thane and Red moved down)

 

Red

Kaylee

Leelou

Thane

 

I'm going to trust you guys on crusher until I finish a thorough reread.

[Kaylee]

Haven't had the chance to read back through yet. Caught up and was lost in the Nol/Sili back and forth. I'll do a quick reads list but it might change by the time i go through things again tomorrow night.

[Sili Quirrels]

Hey, kay, you had a problem with my saying >75% town for low content posters?

 

75% refers to their rand chance. That section is my null section.

[Kaylee]

 

1. Verbal32 - Town

 

2. Sili Quirrels - not sure honestly keep going back and forth, will look at him more tomorrow night.

 

3. Thane Vakarian - an

other i need to look back on.

 

4. Hallia - Null to scum. Leaning scum from the EOD and lack of content. I know she's done that as town too though so hoping she comes back soon...

 

5. Nolder- another one I keep going back and forth on. Leaning town atm.

 

6. TinaHel- town lean

 

7. The Crusher- first game together so Unsure need to go back through.

 

9. Leelou- Leaning scum. Mostly has to do with my strong town read of Verb and his feelings on her tbh.

 

10. Kaylee

 

11. Andrej- feeling town but the exchange with Verbal has me questioning that...

 

13. Red2111- IDK. Really need to read back through. I liked her bulldog reaction on me. Made it fell like her town game but will read through again.

[Kaylee]

Hey, kay, you had a problem with my saying >75% town for low content posters?

 

75% refers to their rand chance. That section is my null section.

Bold: ok that makes more sense thanks for clarifying.

[Kaylee]

Ok going to bed. Will be traveling home tomorrow so won't likely be on until tomorrow night.