[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[Andrej]

Kevin is probably my favorite character fwiw

[Darthe]

Missing a kill.  50% chance that it's a mafia kill.  2 blocks in the game and less than 10% that it's kills overlapping makes it more likely that either mafia blocked someone or Stelio did a good deed.  I don't think Thane had a bad reaction though.  Flawed, yes, but logic hasn't been shown to be his strong suit.  IMO scum Thane would have been better off not speaking in that scenario and he (or at least Yates) would know that well enough to keep him from talking.  

 

Cass is also doing well today.  I find her suspicions and critical thinking to be really methodical and easy to follow even if I still get that overdone feeling from her, which isn't enough to warrant more scrutiny ATM.  

 

This could be some #Darthe paranoia but I am bugging out that I only get mentioned in relatively negative contexts and my contributions are mainly glossed over.  

 

I really would have expected a louder player to die last night.   I have no clue why.

[Darthe]

I've been assimilated. I figure Kevin is the most emo one on the show.

I started watching this show because Kevin straight up has the personality of my uncle Walt.  Prob my fav character.

[Darthe]

Kevin is probably my favorite character fwiw

).) I call buddying right here.  Don't care that you said it first.

[Andrej]

I switched to using a character from The League first though, so really I'm just buddying you Darthe.

 

My take on the 3/4 shots with 2 active blockers and a potentially BP Serial Killer is that

 

1) Someone holstered, which I kind of doubt.

 

2) Either wolves blocked the right player or Stelio saved/blocked the right player.

 

3) Wolves/Vig shot the Serial Killer, presuming they are BP.

 

4) Overlapping kill targets.

 

That's about as clear as it's going to get right now and where I think we should probably leave it until more information is gained.

[TheRagnarok]

 

1. Yates said that the Darthe 52% thing was classic town Darthe.

 

2. The Tress thing struck me as a comment scum would make to follow up on later to get a mislynch.  Hence my reasoning. 

 

3. I never said that Yates spewed Womby, but that Womby went after Yates.  Didn't strike me as scum/scum interaction as much. 

 

4. And yeah, I just didn't quote the Leelou/Stelio stuff cause they're dead and I had a crapton of quotes already.

 

They are at the least evidence that Yates spewed some townies as town.

 

 

1. No I know the post or thing you're talking about, I just wanted you to expand on it a little more because I disagreed with the conclusions. Darthe had been voting Yates for what I remember was kind of a fluffed up reason most the day, then backtracked on it kind of oddly, then Yates later said the thing that looked towny for him, something that he very easily could have set Darthe up for in the QT. Imo all that doesn't discount the possibility of Darthe and Yates being scumbros here

 

2. Again kind of oversimplistic answer here, I get why you thought what you thought, was just kind of looking for more discussion here since Tress looks kinda scummy for other reasons to me

 

3. Wombat hedged on his thing on Yates immediately (he said something along the lines of "if yall are going to go after Yates for anything, go after him having little to no meaningful content. Then again, the same could be said for the majority of the game..."), and never followed up on that either

 

4. Oh I didn't realize you were using them as examples of how Yates' acted towards townies. I thought you just missed or forgot that they HAD flipped town already (derp on my part)

 

But yeah, I agree that Yates was trying to pocket a LOT of townies throughout his time ITG.

 

1-3.  It may be a bit oversimplistic(y'all know I prefer the simplest answer, especially early in games) and I did state that I am likely misclearing someone at this point, but it is only D2 so I am going off how I see the interactions as of right now.  I am not saying that I won't update any reads, that's how I view those things as they stand. 

 

4.  Yeah, they show how he acted towards some townies.  Now, I doubt he was consistent across the board, but it evidence of a certain behavior that I think can be compared to other interactions.

[Darthe]

I switched to using a character from The League first though, so really I'm just buddying you Darthe.

 

My take on the 3/4 shots with 2 active blockers and a potentially BP Serial Killer is that

 

1) Someone holstered, which I kind of doubt.

 

2) Either wolves blocked the right player or Stelio saved/blocked the right player.

 

3) Wolves/Vig shot the Serial Killer, presuming they are BP.

 

4) Overlapping kill targets.

 

That's about as clear as it's going to get right now and where I think we should probably leave it until more information is gained.

Honestly skipped ideas 1 and 3, 1 because just no and 3 because I didn't think about it.  Agreed though that it is a dead end atm.  

[Darthe]

I agree that Yates prob didn't hard-clear a wolf which means Dice is likely town here despite being pretty solidly on his scum meta.  To be fair to him, I've been using the same tell for two years so it could be a bit outdated.  

 

Des, what changed your mind about DPR?  

[Andrej]

I agree that Yates prob didn't hard-clear a wolf which means Dice is likely town here despite being pretty solidly on his scum meta.  To be fair to him, I've been using the same tell for two years so it could be a bit outdated.  

 

Des, what changed your mind about DPR?  

Yeah I agree with you here. I think it was more likely that Yates was trying to pocket Dice from the get-go considering their more recent history.

 

Same with me.

[Darthe]

Care to expound on that?  Not quite sure I understand you.

[Andrej]

It goes back to Yates's opening spiel about how he and I and him and Dice couldn't use our new-found 'tells' with one another because they had become acknowledged truths between us and therefore were no longer 'fair' to use.

 

Yates claiming a inno view on Dice from N0 reads to me like he was trying to win Dice over early.

[Andrej]

Starting from pg 70 on my re-re so I'll just quote/post stuff as I chug along.

 

God damnit, Des!

Anyone else find it ironic that DPR twice called me out for "shaming" other players, yet here he is, in an extremely condascending way, implying that Cass is being used as a puppet and isn't even writing her own posts or something?

*I* wanted to be the one to bring this up! He is both shaming AND discrediting here. PLUS - and you missed this part - he is also using the "coached" tell, a la Darthe. I had noted that you would probably flip your lid when you saw that response.

 

This post looks like Yates spewing DPR as a villager. He's essentially piggy backing Despot's arguments and adding his own flavor to them to further the momentum.

 

 

Like I said, posting recaps is a null tell for me, because I do it regardless of alignment given their utility to me in either alignment.  Use them but don't trust them, and if you are ever playing a game as town when I've flipped scum, ignore them completely rather than trying to mine them for clues - because when I'm scum, I poison both the glasses

 

Anyone else think this is Kivam kinda freudian slipping here? And discouraging people from rereading him afterwards if he does flip scum as well?

 

Yeah - I get that vibe. It's rather blatant to be described as Freudian though, he's basically outright acknowledging that in the event he flips scum that his posts can't be looked back upon for links. Double blind imo

[Darthe]

Thought that was what you meant, but wasn't sure if you were just being redundant.  

 

TBH that's a point against you for trying to tie yourself to Dice's town cred.  

[Darthe]

Kiv and maybe Barm look a bit uptight at the start of D2.  

[Andrej]

Meh.

 

Yates telling me that we couldn't be Amigos this round is effectively the same thing. He made it a point to make that known from the beginning, and as I stated earlier, Arsis was the first to call him on it iirc which makes Pral look substantially better.

[Darthe]

I think Laya deserves benefit of the doubt because Yates pushed him but not because of that from Arsis (if accurate).  It was a flimsy argument on thread that likely was intentionally flimsy, knowing Yates.

[Andrej]

There's that too, sure.

[WWWwombat]

Maybe I should start watching that show.  Fantasy Baseball > Fantasy Football though.  Also, Trout/Kershaw MVPs are sexy.

 

Not sure why you guys are discounting the holster possibility.

[Darthe]

Fantasy Baseball would be infinitely more enjoyable if televised baseball games were watchable.  

 

Holstering would only happen from the vig which gives a 25% chance (impartially) and odd night vig knows they won't get to shoot the next day so I think that increases the likelihood that they take what shots they can.  

[Andrej]

Not really discounting it tbh, I just think it's probably the least likely of potential explanations.

 

*IF* anyone holstered, my guess would be the SK.

 

A Vig that can shoot only every other Night probably doesn't want to miss that opportunity imo and a 1x-Vig wolf DEFINITELY isn't going to waste their shot.

[Andrej]

What's the general opinion on Tress atm btw?

 

I'm a little put off by how she is defending Despot vs DPR on pg 75.

 

"Re: the bolded/purpled/underlined DPR quote above...

 

See, despite the patented Des Tunneling, this is one of the points he's made against you that really does continue to make complete sense.  You keep characterizing his "seer cover" explanation as DES bringing it up to explain Yates' behavior as a town move, but the actual context doesn't support that.  Despo didn't just "bring it up" - he was specifically asked what he thought about Yates' claim and clearing of Dice, and he kinda had to bring up "seer cover" to explain why he was disregarding the claim entirely.   Blame it on Dice, if anyone, and unless you think Yates, Dice and Despo are mafia together and planned that little exchange behind the scenes, I do not think it means what you think it means."

 

The bolded/colored bit is what bugs me the most. Could just be hindsight bias on my part for seeing this now with knowledge of Yates's alignment but it strikes me in a bad manner.

[Andrej]

Tommy openly howling ITT

 

 

One big reason I'm avoiding voting DPR atm is because every time I convince myself he's scum, he says something good.  Also, he's one of the only people so far who's had the guts to scum read me, so that's a paradoxical plus in my eyes =S

 

The famed reverse pocketing trick.

[WWWwombat]

@Darthe: MLB is allegedly going to work on it.  Regardless, someone interested in statistics would find much more meat in baseball than football:  http://www.fangraphs.com/

 

I think there's a good chance the town N1 vig holstered.  Town has good numbers this game, but the SK, extra wolf shots and JK instead of doc mitigate that.  Personally, I would have holstered or shot Pral, the latter being a decision I'm starting to think I would have regretted.

 

Also, idk what Tommy or POG standards are, but when I mod, I generally don't allow my SK's to holster (the standard definition of the role is compulsive iirc) and even if I were an SK with that option, I wouldn't consider using it until late game.

[WWWwombat]

 

Tommy openly howling ITT

 

 

One big reason I'm avoiding voting DPR atm is because every time I convince myself he's scum, he says something good.  Also, he's one of the only people so far who's had the guts to scum read me, so that's a paradoxical plus in my eyes =S

 

The famed reverse pocketing trick.

 

 

That's so level 1.  I play on level 8.  Get on my level.  Or one of the same parity.

[Andrej]

I'm maxing at like level 3 this round bromigo.

 

 

I really don't see what's the big deal about DPR proposing the option that a newbie might be being coached. It's a valid possibility. And it's not an insult at all. It's a viable strategy.

 

I would agree with you if he was accusing her of being coached. He didn't accuse her of simply being coached. He said her scum team was writing her posts for her. He literally called her a "puppet" at one point. I'm keenly aware of this because he accused ME of authoring her posts.

 

More spew imo. I also think the nested quote from Nyn (in it's entirety) that Yates is responding to here is another good example of how town!Nyn's mind works.