[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[csarmi]

And that is the last time I will reference our play directly unless there is some specific question for us that helps scumhunting.

 

Hey girl, take a look at me

Let me dirty up your mind

I'll strip away your hard veneer

And see what I can find

 

The clearest of the clear

The strangest of the strange

The coldest of the cool

The lamest of the lame

The towniest of the town

[Cass]

Your logic there seems false.

 

If doing all those things would definitely get you killed, then you should be dead for having done all of those things.

 

You have done those things. You're not dead. You are very much alive.

 

So those things haven't got you killed. Your 'reasoning' is false.

[csarmi]

Is it?

 

Just because you may get lucky running through a street-crossing mid-town with a blindfold on, it doesn't mean you should do it (or you would do it).

[csarmi]

And afterwards, when you're still alive, you shouldn't believe it was a thing a sane person would do.

[Cass]

Who said anything about you  anyone being sane? 

 

I might be wrong, but as far as I can tell the goal for the SK is to stay alive. Everybody here, including the SK is still alive. Including you (despite the things you've done that you're saying would definitely get you killed. So yes, your logic IS false).

 

Playing the way you have has been either good Town or really good SK. Just because it's been good for Town does not mean it has not been good for SK. If you're SK you've done especially well to stay on the side of most Town whilst watching/helping whittle remaining players down to nobody but Town, obviously.

 

You've said it twice yourself. You would play SK as Town.

 

Nothing you have said clears you from the possibility of night actions/being the SK playing Town. I can't negate the pings I pointed out. They are the particular reasons your hydra is the most specifically sus player on my list, despite all of the things you've 'done for Town'. And there are more 'SK-specific' things there than I could find for any other player.

[Cass]

I'm open to discussion, that's what I think everyone should be doing.

 

But don't give me flimsy reasons why you're 'good'. Darthe did the same thing at his EoD. He was obviously still not Vanilla Town. The purpose of every scum in this game is to convince everyone that they're 'good'. Using that 'logic' against me will not work. 

 

The purpose of Town is to find non-Town. The only way I'm moving off you is if you/someone else gives me specific/solid reasons why the specific points I 'found' were wrong. And manages to do the same for why anyone else is a better lynch. Without AtE and side-stepping around the point to bring up other 'truths'. 

 

You haven't done that yet. And at the moment, if there's a perfect explanation and someone who looks more pointedly sus, I cannot see it, and I've been trying.

[Cass]

I'm off to bed. Will be back in the morning.

[Tommyrod]

Just a warning I'll be traveling home tonight. There's a snowstorm coming and my house has satellite internet. That means I might not have any internet service tonight.

 

Day still ends at 9:00 PM EST. Posting after that is not acceptable.

 

PM me your night actions in advance.

[hazelkrs1]

Jesus Christ Cass STOP TRYING TO LOSE THE GAME FOR TOWN! This is wasting freaking time dear Lord ANE it's making me want to start tinfoiling on you again!!!!!!!

 

 

Csarmi's logic is NOT false just because we're alive. That's preposterous. His logic is sound, it just so happens that all of our protown play and strategy HAS NOT ended us up in the coroner. All that means is scum was most likely prioritizing other kills above us, or didn't see us as much of a threat or something.

 

FOR CHRIST'S SAKE, YOUR WHOLE ARGUMENT ABOUT US BEING SCUM PRETTY MUCH BOILS DOWN TO IS BEING ALIVE STILL.

 

Do you not see how ludicrous that reasoning is????????

[csarmi]

Despo my suspension of disbelief can only take me so far on Cass. Find another lock clear for i gonna opt to shoot or lynch her.

[csarmi]

I think she is just tunneling on us cause she dont know what else to do. Sure she wont get us mislynched but she's hoping to pass by. Its enoufh for her if we dont lynch HER.

[csarmi]

She juat seems to have too much wim to be sk.

[csarmi]

Pral and Dice and Tress get your act up.

[csarmi]

Des if you are sure about Pral then we do have our three when Dice claims.

[hazelkrs1]

Basically you've been good most the game, but this last phase and specifically the last few posts have had some SERIOUS logic gaps on your part Cass.

 

As Csarmi pointed out, we don't need to help the SK fake their lists by removing the Vig from the clears. If they expose themselves by listing obvious clears as suspects or something, then that will make it THAT much easier to catch them as LLL's.

 

Csarmi's method, if done together and with town working together, literally removes any possibility of town losing the game. The only way you can prevent that from happening is by NOT working with us and giving better clears for yourself.

 

One thing Darthe said yesterday was right- at this stage of the game, a case could be made for almost anyone still alive. THAT is why we should be focusing on POE- Process Of Elimination, to find last scum instead of trying to go for our best guess for scum.

 

So again, if we can just find three clears today, in the next few hours, then we lynch-shoot-lynch the others and GUARANTEE town wins this game

[hazelkrs1]

  On 11/26/2014 at 4:24 PM, csarmi said:

Des if you are sure about Pral then we do have our three when Dice claims.

One thing I think is significant is there's very little chance the SK even CAN try and CC at this point.

 

Cass already claimed VT. Thane did as well. We said we're not the Vig. I think someone else did as well tbh (Tress maybe?)

 

Anyways yes I'm ready to keep Pray LOCK CLEAR to ride off into the sunset with. His play has just oozed townie for too long now. If he's SK then hats off to him.

[csarmi]

Let's kill the girls first :p

[csarmi]

Im gonna go through Pral play today to reinforce that view Des. I have no impression of him whatsoever.

[csarmi]

  On 11/26/2014 at 4:41 AM, Songstress said:

Yeahhhh, so... if you'll excuse me for a moment, me and my tinfoil hat will be in the corner, pointing and laughing in the mirror.  >.<

 

 

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 2:02 PM, csarmi said:

Everyone please take a stance on what the vig should so.

Claim or not?

Call shot or not?

Whom to shoot?

Do it in your first post or die.

 

 

1) Since you've clarified that you're not the vig, yes, I think they should claim.  

 

2) I've not done a lot of theoretical analysis of how to play a vig - generally because i hate rolling vig and am more concerned with picking targets than anything else.  What would you say are the advantages and disadvantages of either option?

 

3) If *I* was the vig, I'd holster because I am not at all confident in picking targets.  Since I'm not, I'd say they should shoot their best guess for SK, or second best guess assuming that their first best guess is today's lynch and doesn't pan out.  Or they can shoot me, because I really don't want the responsibility of being alive in the final 3 and having to guess correctly.  I still beat myself up for the last time I fouled that up.

 

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 3:06 PM, csarmi said:

TressLove: please don't be the SK

 

 

You're in luck, I'm not.

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 5:30 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 4:22 PM, Songstress said:

K, so.  

 

Yesterday was a big black hole of fatigue and fuzzy head.  I've been doing most of my following along on mobile, and I'm positive I've missed some pages or partial pages in there because I've seen things quoted that I don't remember reading.  I won't have time until the weekend to do a full re-read, and it'll be more useful after a few flips anyway, so I'm gonna try to grab a few quotes that I remembered wanting to respond to as I read them and get a semi-explained reads list out there.   A lot of my early reads are gut feelings, but after almost 3 years of playing I've figured out that my gut feelings normally CAN be backed up by evidence when I have the time and motivation to go back and do ISOs.  My thread recall is pretty much crap since I stopped doing the Giant Spreadsheet of Doom, but the impressions the individual posts leave accumulate into a nebulous read.

 

Quotes first, reads list to follow.  BRB.

 

Tress, you are normally very annoyed when you don't have enough time on your hands to make observations and reads that grab the big picture and show insight and logic. In other words, you are a maximalist when it comes to towning.

Would you agree with that chatacterization?

Do you believe it is different this game and if so, why?

Would you care to profile our serial killer? This type of analysis is kind of your thing. Possible approaches:

Alive players (why them)

Night kills (why them and why then)

Thread presence (activity level)

 

Csarmi darlin', I play how I play.  What it looks like in any given game depends on many factors.  I post when I have time and something to say, and what I post depends mostly on what I notice that I think needs to be said.  The last couple of games, it's been heavily influenced by how sick I'm feeling, I don't always have the energy to think things through very hard or very thoroughly, and to explain coherently.  Last game, I got a little extra emo, this game I've tried very hard not to be (I have to admit that was in large part because of DPR and Kivam playing, and not wanting to play like a jerk in front of them - instead I get to play like a paranoid idiot).

 

As for profiling the SK, I really don't see why you think it's up my alley unless you're thinking of Avengers.  In the Avengers game, we had tons of claimed roles and claimed night actions that I tried to sort out the best I could, but nobody's been claiming their kills here, so it's all kinda guesswork.  The only kill that we know 100% was the SK's responsibility was Hallia (although Yates was kind of a safe bet for SK-targeted) and for the life of me I don't understand why they would have picked Hally over you. 

 

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 5:42 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/18/2014 at 5:14 PM, Songstress said:

Just for grins, let's do this first... 

 

 

  On 11/13/2014 at 5:09 PM, Songstress said:

Fairly comfortable town reads:

 

DesLami Kivam - Wolf N1 Vig - Lynched D2WWWwombat - Seer - Killed N2

Nyn

 

 Townish vibe:

 Yates. - Wolf Godfather - Killed N1

Rags

Thane

 Null/mixed/no clue:

 

Dice

AJLeelou - Vanillager - Killed N1Verbal32 / Barmacral Hydra - Vanillager - Killed N2

Cass Stelio Kontos - Jailkeeper - Killed N1

Hallia

 Mildly uncomfortable:

 

Arsis/PralKrakalakachkn - Wolf N2 Vig - Killed N2

Darthe

 

No specifics for these guys, just a gut level discomfort that I can probably go back and make less nebulous this weekend.

 Top scum leans:

 Sili Quirrels - Vanillager - Lynched D1DreadPirateRoberts - Vanillager - Killed N2

 

 

Good God, I'm on a roll.  At least one of my top town picks was town.

 

Revised version to come later.

Revise this. How do you feel now?

 

 

How I feel now is it could be any of you, although I think Cass is the least likely.

 

DesLami - the fact that Hallia was killed instead of you guys makes me completely and unutterably paranoid.  If it wasn't for that I wouldn't even question you, for what it's worth.

 

Pral - looks pretty townie to me.  He is also known to have excellent instincts as a vig, so if the town vig wasn't responsible for hitting the two mafia that were night killed, I could see him being a very savvy SK. 

 

Dice - as previously stated, he seems to be pretty concerned with defending and explaining his activity level, which he knows is a huge scum tell for him.  

 

Thane - Des made a pretty good point about Thane, IMO, and Thane and Dice are the two lowest on my list right now.

 

The vig claiming would narrow down my suspect list (unless it's Cass, of course).

  

  On 11/26/2014 at 4:51 AM, Cass said:

I am not the Vig.

Also, ha! I may be unsure on you Tress, but if you're feeling paranoid you're not alone ><.

*Points to own previous tinfoiling on the SK matter, joins Tress in the corner with her own tinfoil hat*

  

  On 11/26/2014 at 7:11 AM, csarmi said:

We never claimed Vig.

I claimed i wasn't even night vig specifically for tactical reasons (gives the odd night vig a safe shot if needed and soft hints).

The Nyn post was deliberate. I didn't intend it as a reaction test per se, rather a hint. You can call it a soft vig cover. It couldn't hurt town cause the odd vig would never counter on an even day and cannot mis-shoot us on an even night.

It can't be a breadcrumb for a later claim as we would never claim vig here, in fact, no one would get to fake claim it without surrendering the game. You're a logical thinker and you'll see how it was always going to be the day for claiming up (the last possible mislynch is the time to do it).

There was a chance that the sk/scum buys it and goes after us (profit) and that the reactions would be helpful (as Des explained).

  

  On 11/26/2014 at 8:06 AM, Thane Vakarian said:

SK is dice or Tress then, if i get Des and csarmi right.

 

i'm vanilla town, not the vig, not the SK. Which, after reading, means that Cass and Dess are also VT. Leaves Pral/tress/dice as a mix vig/vt/sk (in no particular order)

 

or, Des is still SK andtoying with us, stating he's the most obvious townplayer on nearly every page (that's the impression i get, at least)

 

  

  On 11/25/2014 at 6:22 PM, Pralaya said:

 

  On 11/25/2014 at 2:02 PM, csarmi said:

Everyone please take a stance on what the vig should so.

Claim or not?

Call shot or not?

Whom to shoot?

Do it in your first post or die.

 

 

Of course the vig should claim. We are 1-5 today and if we mislynch and the vig also mislynches (worst case scenario), we will be 1-2 tomorrow and that would be the end of the game. Most likely the game is not going beyond the next day, so tonight is the only night the vig power will be used. So, claiming would not be a disadvantage because he can still get the shot out before being killed. 

 

Also, it is better to claim today because if the SK counterclaims, we can afford a mislynch. If the vig claims the next day, the mislynch might as well lead to a loss.

 

I don't see any disadvantage in the vig claiming but only multiple advantages.

Four direct non vig claims.

 

Pray implies he isn't the vig either but its earlier so not conclusive.

[csarmi]

Okay. I tried pulling Cass'a case apart but its such a pile of bunny droppings i won't even do that.

 

You take a bunch of our quotes out of context entirely AND you make sure to focus only on ones that talk about SK for aome reason.

 

Both are a lolarious stuff to do at best. Its as if you took our posta, searched for SK mention and no matter whwre they were said or in what context you try to use them to paint us look bad or contradictory. I am also fairly confident you left those out that dont support your "theory".

 

You sound more intelligent than that to me. If you seriously dont understand why this is thw wrong way to look at threadplay from every angle i really cannot help you.

 

But i doubt that.

[csarmi]

Hints.

 

There is nothing wrong with someone's posts being contradictory.

There is nothing wrong with two person holding different views.

There is nothing wrong with someone changing their ways or adjusting their opinion or play based on facts and xurrenr events.

There is nothing wrong with fleixibility.

There is this game called mafia where play and reads should be dynamics.

[Songstress]

Look, I can't give you people any more than I already have.  

 

Csarmi, I can't give you 3 clears.  I can't even give you 2.  I've given you my thoughts already, and with how hard you guys are pushing on Cass, I'm starting to question her at this point.  Whoever is the vig and myself, and I don't know who the vig is.  I'm getting more confused as the game goes on, and I don't LIKE that feeling.

 

Cass, I've already said if you're looking for games to compare for meta, I can't give you a town game that will help at all.  I haven't been well and I haven't been playing like myself for going on two months now, and the only full game I've played since I started feeling terrible is one that's in the Thakandar board, no longer accessible since SG decided non-members are no longer allowed to play mafia there.

 

Actually, the only thing I can give you is more AtE, and you fellas should all know I'm capable of much, much more than I've allowed to leak into the thread so far.   

 

Look, NOBODY is going to have me on their clear list.  I get that, it's why I'm still alive.  Mafia and the SK knew they could spare me for a mislynch late in the game, or just leave me to be terrible and make the wrong decision in the final 3.   All I can do is apologize, I shouldn't have signed up for a game without knowing for sure that I was feeling better than I have been.

[csarmi]

Tress. I dont like your woe me posts.

 

Gimme reads. Impressions. Whatever. Surely you do have them.

 

Just read Cass last day's play and tell me if you think she believes what she says.

[Songstress]

  On 11/26/2014 at 5:41 PM, csarmi said:

Tress. I dont like your woe me posts.

 

Gimme reads. Impressions. Whatever. Surely you do have them.

 

Just read Cass last day's play and tell me if you think she believes what she says.

I don't know.

 

Please just kill me and get it over with.

[Pralaya]

I have already claimed on D1. I am VT. Dice is likely the vig here, bah.

 

[unvote]

 

My three clears would be then the vig, des and maybe thane (I was thinking him to be scum, not sk ... Don't think he would have played like this ad sk)