[Advanced] Red Wedding Mafia - Post Game, MakersMark

[Tommyrod]

Do you think Red's process of

 

>Dawn is lock scum

>That means Dice is lock town

>Vote Tommy instead of Dawn

 

Makes sense coming from a townie? Would scum do that? It seems really sloppy.

[Xthrax]

Do you think Red's process of

 

>Dawn is lock scum

>That means Dice is lock town

>Vote Tommy instead of Dawn

 

Makes sense coming from a townie? Would scum do that? It seems really sloppy.

No, it doesn't. Townie do get confused change their reads very often but this is no. I don't see how Dawn is lock scum. Dice is npt auto-cleared. The last bit, I don't really get it. That is why she is on my scum list now.

 

Edit-Added a fullstop and changed to a capital letter.

[Tommyrod]

I just want her to be more objective if she is town because her current battle plan may end up costing us the game.

 

Anyway, back to work.

[Red2111]

Red, I'm working under the assumption you are town due to scum spew -- which you called WIFOM, lol. Means you wouldn't be clear either, ya dingus!

 

Dice has pigeonholed himself into a scum read on me that he has never sufficiently explained. He flipped his read on me when I ISO'd his posts and then he's been accusing me of twisting words; the fact that he's relying on the rolestopper argument is extremely telling because that was a complete non-versation. He misunderstood how the role worked, and somehow that makes me scum? I don't even understand what point he's trying to make, which is terrible if it's meant to be one of his main bullet points against me.

 

Keep considering more information, don't put all your vote eggs in one logic basket.

 

edited out the meta stuff.

 

no offense Tommy but your scumdar on D1 and D2 has been constantly pegging townies as scum.  also, aside from the Leelou lynch (which was driven by a finders claim) you've helped to lynch towneis this game.  your track record this game isn't something i'm willing to rely in or trust, as its proving to be way off the mark.

 

look at the lynches from D1 and D2.  on myself, Mishtress and Mynd, they all have one thing in common.  they built with blindingly fast speed.  Dices train went the same way.

 

 

re-bold - its LYLO.  thsi is called "go big or go home"  with the finder dead i only have my logic and reads to rely on.  LYLO is exactly when you put all your eggs in one basket, because you'r either right and buy yours;ef another day or you're wrong and you lost the game.  my gut is saying Dawn is scum, which means that logically Dice is town because t makes no sens efor scum to bus a team mate at LYLO.

 

so i refuse to vote someone who by this logic has a good chance of being town.

 

 

 

 

 

 

okay - heres the finale VC's for each day, and the latest one for today. 

 

green = confirm townie

 

red = confirm scum

 

 

 

Official Bloody Vote Count:

Crayjay (1/10): Dice

Mistress (9/10): NyanCat, Red, X, Jack, Desbat, Mistress, Nol, Zanube, Dawn

Red (7/10): Dawn, Tommy, Yates, Verbalina, Krak, Len, Cloud

Mynd (2/10): CrayJay, Halleeloujah

Tommy(1/10): Megaloud

 

Not Voting (1/19):

 Mynd

 

Does anyone see any corrections that need be made before the scene is posted?  You'll have about ten minutes to speak up or this is considered cannon.

 

 

ummm @Darthe - da faq is up with that vote count dude.  you have Cloud and Dawn voting twice??  i recall Dawn switch to Mishstress (had to vote multi times to do it though)  and i think Cloud came in right before deadline to move the Megaloud vote back to me.

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count:

Mynd (9/9): NyanCat, Jack, X, Tommy, Megaloud, Halleeloujah, Verbalina, Len, Andrej

Jack (2/9): Yates, Dawn

 

Not Voting (5/16):

Krak, Dice, Red, Zanube, Mynd

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count (Of Doom):

Halleeloujah (8/8): MegaLoud, NyanCat, CrayJay, Verbalina, Jack, Tommy, Krak, X

CrayJay (1/8): Dawn

Len (1/8): Halleleloujah

 

Non-voters (of doom) 3/13:

Len, Dice, Red

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count:

 

Jack (6/6): Megaloud, Dawn, Tommy, Nyancat, X, Len

MegaLoud (1/6): Jack, Dice

 

Not Voting (2/10):

Krak, Red

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count:

 

Tommy (2/5): Dice, Krak

Dawn (1/5): Red

Dice (4/5): Cloud, Dawn, X, Tommy

 

Not Voting (1/8):

 

Lenlo

 

35 hours til Night

 

 

 

alright - so based on the vote counts alone and the a-typical scum behavior of distancing from team mates vs trying to look town.  this is what i have.

 

 

D1 - they would have spread their votes out.  this means that the Mishtress vote gives us the most info, as one or two scum are there.  which means that our two wagons today, on probabality alone, should be between X and Dawn  as this gives us the highest chance of hitting scum blindly imo.

 

given i was a PR claim at the point of this lynch, chances are high i have atleast 1 more scum on my lynch.  

 

Dices vote makes him suspect as well.

 

 

D2 - we have two confirmed on Mynds lynch.  this pretty much singles out Dawn's vote as scum, based on the fact that scum will always have more town on a lynch than scum until LYLO (or a finders claim).  tha chances are also high that one of the non-voters is scum, and its 50/50 where the last scum is (gut says on Mynds lynch though)

 

onca again, this highlights both Dice and Dawn.

 

 

D3 -  we have a scum lynched via finders claim.  this means that scum would consolodate most of their votes on the team mates lynch to use it to look townie (hence Verbs vote).  they woudln't put them all on there, for fear of a vote analyzer ability.

 

this means that atleast one more scum is on Leelou's lynch, and atleast one more scum is not.  this lynch acutlaly gives the least amount of info imo

 

Dawns vote once again sticks out.  why didn't she vote Leelou if the finder had outted leelou at this time?

 

 

D4 - 3 scummies left at this point.  again, they wouldn't consolidate all the votes on one lynch  once again, Dawn and Dices votes stick out the most.  the last is 50/50 between Jack or not voting.

 

 

D5 - this is the most helpful and informative lynch.  we are at LYLO, so scum are more likely to pull thier votes to rush a lynch and throw caution to the wind.  this helps us get a good feel for correctly pinning a persons alignement, based on interaction alone.  and by doing this, use a process of elimination on the previous vote counts to narrow down the scum list.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

basing this souly off the previous VC's and interaction today, i'm cmming up with the following logic.

 

known - i'm town.

 

98% probability of being scum - Dawn.

 

Known - Dawns vote is on Dice.  dice is at L-1.  given a highly likely scum is voting for him and he's not hammered yet, theres a high probability that all scum votes are currently on Dice.

 

this defacto clears Dice, Lenlo, & Krak.

 

 

 

New pool of high porbability scum suspects for VC analysis - Tommy, Cloud, & X

 

 

VC analysis results - non conclusive; new suspects all voted together.

 

D5 analysis of context - X is acting the same as in D1 and D2; Tommy and Cloud appear to be acting as a team to get votes off Tommy and to get Dice Lynched.

 

Results - 65% probability of Tommy and Cloud being scum.

 

 

suggested action -

 

 

Lynch Dawn, Tommy and Cloud

 

 

 

##UNVOTE

 

##VOTE TOMMY

 

 

 

i'd prefer to test myself with lynching Dawn to vet my analysis of the VC's, but Tommy is just as good at this point.

 

 

 

Firstly Day-1 VC analysis. You say that scum will be there in both wagons. Why are you just concentrating on Mishtress?

 

Day-2. If scum will have more town on a lynch than scum until lylo-how does it single out Dawn's vote.

 

Day-4. How does Dawn's & Dice's vote stick out?

 

Also known-that is just you saying it.

 

How did you come up with that probability?

 

How does it clear them? You haven't even mentioned Tommy and Cloud before. 

 

Also your analysis is non-conclusive and you still have definite result? Wow.

 

Dawn was 98%. So going according to logic, why are you voting for someone who is in the 2% pool with 4 other people?

 

 

D1 - because out of the knowns, Mishtress's wagon has the least amount og unknown variables left on it.  theres only 2 people who dont have corner reports on them on Mishtress's wagon, and none of the knowns on Mishtress's wagon are scum.

 

therefore chances are very great that one or both of the unknowns on Mishtresses wagon are scum and this gives us a pure 50/50 shot at hitting scum whcih are very good odds.

 

D2 - it singles out Dawn's vote becuase she's the only othe person on the other lynch, and theres only 2 unknown in the no-vote section.  that second lynch is a good place to park a vote for scum and keep it away from detection.

 

D4 - that should have been Krak and Dice's votes.  D3 left me with Dawn on the brain given her voting the finder when he outted scum.   Dice and kraks vote stick out the most becuase they're pread out.

 

 

re-knowns - its my anylisis, i know my alignment, my alignment is town.  so from a personal stand point of analyzing the evidence i am treating my aligment as a known

 

re-probability - gut read for points i've posted on why she's scummy. i posted the list recently

 

* posting trend of only comming in when mentioned or gettign pressured, reads like being poked on a QT

* everyone finding her scummy, yet no lynch on her gaining traction

* lack of vote on leelou when finder claimed her as scum

 

add in also

 

* vote on D1 on me (the bus vote with the "grammer joke reasoning") then the swtich to Mishtress because "well its better than voting Red over a joke"

 

 

re-clearing -

 

* Dawn is scum (see above list) 

* Scum have no reason to bus a teammate at LYLO.

* Dawn votes Dice - therefore Dice is likely town

* Dice is L-1

* given Dawn is scum, if Len, or Krak were scum they woudl have hammered Dice and won the game; they haven't.  this clears them

 

 

re non-conclusive - this is only in referance to looking at the voting habits of X, Tommy and Amegaloud.  because you three voted the same in each count.  theres no variables to account for and no way to analyze it.  so the only thing to determine your scumminess off of is your interaction and context in thread.

 

 

re-dawn - i started with todya by voting her and have said multiple times that she is my #1 vote for today.  if others are willign to move their vote to her, i'd gladly change my vote to a perosn i feel is Lck Scum rather than a person that has a 33% chance of flipping town. 

 

but NO ONE wants to vote dawn other than me right now.  and given its a hybrid game i'd rather take my chances with Tommy by tieing him with Dice, rather than locking Dice in for the scum win.

[Tommyrod]

Nice timing lol. Talk to me about Dawn, then. WHY is she your LOCK SCUM suspect? Why can she NEVER be town here?

[Red2111]

like i aid, if you guys are willing to vote Dawn, i'm happiest with my vote there

 

 

##UNVOTE

 

##VOTE: DAWN

[Tommyrod]

And you know, I don't think your track record is that good yourself! Krak said the same thing about me... it's a bit of a red herring and it's odd that you're both using the same "dismiss everything he says" talking point.

[Red2111]

Nice timing lol. Talk to me about Dawn, then. WHY is she your LOCK SCUM suspect? Why can she NEVER be town here?

 

not timing, i dont type fast and it takes time to respond to people 

 

here i will re-quote my points on why i find Dawn scummy for you, from the above post.

 

 re-probability - gut read for points i've posted on why she's scummy. i posted the list recently

 

* posting trend of only comming in when mentioned or gettign pressured, reads like being poked on a QT

* everyone finding her scummy, yet no lynch on her gaining traction

* lack of vote on leelou when finder claimed her as scum

 

 

[Tommyrod]

like i aid, if you guys are willing to vote Dawn, i'm happiest with my vote there

 

 

##UNVOTE

 

##VOTE: DAWN

Please walk me through your thought process on why you think she's the most likely scum in the game. Just off the cuff and casually is fine. I wanna see the journey and not just the destination.

[Tommyrod]

Okay, so:

 

* posting trend of only comming in when mentioned or gettign pressured, reads like being poked on a QT

 

-She did this as town in the twilight game.

 

* everyone finding her scummy, yet no lynch on her gaining traction

 

-I'll concede this may be a point, but isn't that a point in my favor for being town then? :P

 

* lack of vote on leelou when finder claimed her as scum

 

-This isn't much, no need to join in the lynch since it was gonna happen anyway.

 

Is there more?

[Red2111]

And you know, I don't think your track record is that good yourself! Krak said the same thing about me... it's a bit of a red herring and it's odd that you're both using the same "dismiss everything he says" talking point.

 

i'm not trying to get itno a pissing contest with you over track records.  my point was that you've given me no reason why i shoudl trust you and your cases over what my gut is tellign me.

 

right or wrong, i atleast know that my gut isn't tryign to purposefully lead me to lislynching to give the scum the win.  with you, idk. 

[Tommyrod]

 

 

And you know, I don't think your track record is that good yourself! Krak said the same thing about me... it's a bit of a red herring and it's odd that you're both using the same "dismiss everything he says" talking point.

i'm not trying to get itno a pissing contest with you over track records. my point was that you've given me no reason why i shoudl trust you and your cases over what my gut is tellign me.

 

right or wrong, i atleast know that my gut isn't tryign to purposefully lead me to lislynching to give the scum the win. with you, idk.

Welcome to how I feel about what you're selling right now XD

[Red2111]

Okay, so:

 

* posting trend of only comming in when mentioned or gettign pressured, reads like being poked on a QT

 

p1 -She did this as town in the twilight game.

 

* everyone finding her scummy, yet no lynch on her gaining traction

 

p2 -I'll concede this may be a point, but isn't that a point in my favor for being town then? :P

 

* lack of vote on leelou when finder claimed her as scum

 

p3 -This isn't much, no need to join in the lynch since it was gonna happen anyway.

 

Is there more?

 

 the quote left off

 

* vote on D1 on me (the bus vote with the "grammer joke reasoning") then the swtich to Mishtress because "well its better than voting Red over a joke"

 

 

p1 - meta is not a factor for me. i go game by game for casing only.  i dont care how she behaved in a different game, i'm only concerned about this game.

 

p2 - how does this clear you?

 

p3 - it says a lot.  this is a hybrid game and look at D1.  we were like 10 hours from the lynch and crayjay lead a speed lynch on Mynd, who went from zero to tied with Mish in the space of a few hours. 

 

a finder outs someone, you vote who they out.  to prove the claim.   using the excuse "meh she's got enough votes neways" is not enough reason not to vote; becuase you dont know who will jump off the wagon at the last minute.

[Tommyrod]

Can you quote the grammar vote thing for me? I'm on my phone.

 

You DO recall that you voted me for 80% of D1 because I said I was the GOAT (greatest of all time), right? So how can you even use that? >_>

[Tommyrod]

Ignoring meta entirely is a bit foolhardy, I think. I think it sometimes gets over used, but it's a supplement -- especially with a BRAND NEW player like Dawn.

 

Basically, I do think Dawn could be town here because of her meta. I *just* had a game where I won by lynching her for this same behavior. So you're asking me to believe that she's savvy enough to exploit that existing meta so I don't notice. This is like her 4th or5th game. Do you think she could pull one over on me like that? It's possible but it doesn't seem most likely.

 

So if you drop that read of yours, Dice can be scum in your eyes -- which you agreed with me on in your summary post. You frustrating person!

[Red2111]

i can quote it later if someone doesn't get around to it before me, i'm about to leave work right now.

 

 

the difference between my vote on you Tommy and Dawn's votes on Mishtress and Me on D1 is that heres were bus votes on two wagons that put the players near the half way mark. 

 

my vote was a single vote on you with no wagon.

 

re-meta - meta is useful for getting a baseline on a person but not in casign them or directly clearing them.  i use meta, to get a first feel of a perosn.  but how they play in the current game >>>> meta for me.   we can agree to disagree on this, i've had this opinion for 4 years of playing Mafia here at DM and i see no reason to change it.

 

 

 

re-Dice.  yes, take Dawn out of the equation then the only thing pointing to Dice as town woudl be the speed of his wagon today.   but Dawn is not removable for me, shes the scummiest person in the game and i'm not ignoring my gut  (last time i did that, it cost me 24 poitns on a Calculus test <_< )

[Tommyrod]

lol. I dunno what else to say.

[Tommyrod]

Cory pls come back :(

[dawnflower8]

Seriously, I cannot believe how Red thinks I'm the most likely scum when Dice obviously scumslipped and by the way the dead scum interacted with him. 

 

I'm not so sure Red is town anymore.

[Tommyrod]

Seriously, I cannot believe how Red thinks I'm the most likely scum when Dice obviously scumslipped and by the way the dead scum interacted with him.

 

I'm not so sure Red is town anymore.

I think we'll just have to bribe Lenlo.

 

Hey Len, I got cookies!

[Lenlo]

 

Seriously, I cannot believe how Red thinks I'm the most likely scum when Dice obviously scumslipped and by the way the dead scum interacted with him.

 

I'm not so sure Red is town anymore.

I think we'll just have to bribe Lenlo.

 

Hey Len, I got cookies!

 

Hmm... what kind?

[Tommyrod]

Oatmeal chocolate chip. The mix is organic and I added more chips and I bake them to be soft and gooey!

[Darthe]

[Tommyrod]

Look most like the bottom left cookie.

[Tommyrod]

Guess they're all for me!