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[Advanced] Twilight Mafia Game over - Mafia win


Leelou

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Posted

 

This post makes me more willing to vote Laya.  I think it really odd that he completely ignores the other six people and no-lynch isn't remotely helpful because mafia has no incentive to kill from this group of four leaving us in the same position tomorrow minus one townie.

 

 

With less than 24 hours, I am personally not in favour of rushing a lynch just for the sake of it.

 

It is weird how you you say that we will be in the same position tomorrow. We will have a lot of information from Lenlo's questions, assuming that his claim is genuine. We could have information from Tina's ability, provided her claim is true and she uses it well. We will know what Des did with his vig or if he is at all. And, on top of that, there will be a lot more time to utilise the information on suspects rather than rushing things. 

 

 

You forgot to mention how incredibly odd it is that you still ignored the seven other lynch candidates.  We need to either clear or get rid of them and you want to sit on your hands while scum takes out a townie?  

 

 

unvote vote laya

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Posted

That is exactly what I mentioned about not being in favour of rushing the lynch.

 

Starting a new train close the deadline with no information of how it would turn out to be is not pro-town. On top of the many claims revealed today, there is a good chance that the entire PR structure will be revealed and making it easy for the scum to chose their target. With the excuse of clearing them by rushing the lynch, it is likely a move to fish out the remaining PRs, which is exactly what the scum wants.

 

I am more comfortable with 1 townie dead than 2 townies dead and more PRs revealed. 

Posted

I'm meh on a Pray lynch. Doesn't seem that scummy at all to me, and in fact he's being very open about his stance on things. Getting town vibes there.

 

And at this point I'm DEF thinking a CFD on Dice is in order. That vote looks opportunistic as hell. Vague "gut read" reasoning attached makes it worse.

 

Unfortunately, I still can't vote so w/e. :dry:

 

But yeah, yall should vote Dice or No Lynch imo. I generally agree with the points Pray is making on why a No Lynch might be best, and numerous times in this game lately I have thought that Dice could use more pressure. Getting that feeling numerous separate instances has to be meaningful.

Posted

Those that are so strongly against a No Lynch today are prob against No Lynches in general. We've had 4 claims today. No really good lynch candidate. An extra night would likely sort out multiple claims at once, helping to clarify the entire picture in front of us. All the No Lynch does is remove the risk of lynching a townie today or outing another PR, so that tomorrow we can have more info to tackle everything with. Not really any negatives here, not withstanding the likelihood of some uberpowerful role that the scum has that triggers like 7 abilities when town No Lynches.

Posted

Chinese Fire Drill, as in a quick sudden train on someone else

 

And Dice you just outed yourself. Fearmonger MOAR plz? "happy to just randomly lynch a townie" Bahahahahaha!!!!

 

:laugh:

 

ALL VOTES ON DICE! CHOO CHOO!

 

Funny-gifs-build-on-train-tracks.gif

Posted

Vote Count
 
Tina (2) - Lenlo, Tommy
Lenlo (2) - Tina, Clov

Pral (2) - Darthe, Dice
Darthe (1) - Dawn
Dice (1) - Hallia
 
not voting - Des, Verbal, Pral
 
With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

 

Deadline Monday 5 pm EST under 11 hours

Posted

##Unvote Tina

##Vote Dice

 

For wagonments. Yeah my epic read never happened. I have let you all down. I'm sorry. Let's try to converge upon a wolf before EOD but I need to do work work first, then I can do #work.

Posted

Vote Count

 

Dice (2) - Hallia, Tommy

Lenlo (2) - Tina, Clov

Pral (2) - Darthe, Dice

Darthe (1) - Dawn

Tina (1) - Lenlo

 

not voting - Des, Verbal, Pral

 

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Deadline Monday 5 pm EST around 8 hours

Posted

I'm working off of:

Lenlo (I flipped)
Tina (seems okay)

Darthe (duh)
Des (sans bias I see him being villa)

Pral (good tone)

Dawn (noob tube)

Leaving:
Dice
Hallia
Clov

Verb

Basically in that order of "I don't think they're doing anything particularly pro-villa." WTL any of those 4, but I'm always really happy to just randomly lynch a townie like Dice. So I suggest we burn Dice today. With fire. Or the sun I guess.

Posted

 

 

Vote Count

 

Jack (3) - Cory, Tina, Des

Tina (1) - Jack 

Salami (1) - Hallia

Des-Des (1) - Dawn

Verbal (1) - Clov

 

Not Voting - BFG, Darthe, Dice, Salami, Verbal, Pral, Lenlo

 

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

 

 

 

 

Vote Count

 

Des-Des (3) - Dawn, Darthe, Cory

Jack (1) - Tina

Tina (1) - Jack 

Salami (1) - Hallia

Verbal (1) - Clov

Clov (1) - Des

 

Not Voting - BFG, Dice, Salami, Verbal, Pral, Lenlo

 

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

 

 

 

 

Vote Count

 

Salami (4) - Hallia, Tina, Des, Cory

Des-Des (2) - Dawn, Darthe

Tina (2) - Jack, Lenlo

Verbal (1) - Clov

 

Not Voting - BFG, Dice, Salami, Verbal, Pral

 

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

 

 

 

Here we go.  I left out the third of these because it didn't show as much transition.  These are all in the past three pages and 20 hours.

 

This is very odd and will likely be a big deal in the late game.  It also bodes ill for a mafia lynch today.  

 

Here is something I have noticed over time.  If you have three or more trains like this on D1 then one of them is mafia.  

 

Tina/Cory/Des are all voting together and all opposing one another at various points.  However we only see discrepency in the pattern when Des is the leading train.  That is what I call an oddity.

 

 

Darthe diggity dawg, do you still think this is of interest? I see my (Salami's) wagon had 4 at some point, and I believe Hallia started it as a joke but stayed there anyway. Lemme check.

Posted

Airport mafia is a go!

 

Vote Salami

 

 

 

Why, what's wrong?

Vote csarmi

 

 

 

The reason why I voted Jack was because I knew he wouldn´t keep quiet regardless if he is town or mafia. We needed something to happen. Now, the only thing that did happen was a discussion about whyfry. lol I should have known that not much else would happen during the weekend. 

 

Jack - did what I thought he would. No indication of alignment.

Des - jumped on the opportunity to get the game started. Then he manage to contradict himself, which is why Darthe voted him (I believe). If this was a few months ago I would have voted Des but I´m getting used to his weird, aggressive openings as town so I will just watch him. 

Darthe - his vote on Des is interesting. He is also used to how Des starts games but he think it´s scummy this time. 

 

Unvote.

 

Vote Csarmi

 

 

He has just posted once since my vote on Jack, when he questioned my post. I believe he has been on DM since then. Why won´t he comment on anything?

 

 

Clov's response looks good to me atm. Doesn't seem like scum trying to go for an easy target or anything.

 

Unvote, Vote Csarmi

 

He has been earily quiet this game. Plus if we can get him to ragequit Tommy is waiting in the wings :tongue:

 

Of these, Hallia's vote is a joke, Des's vote appears to be a half joke, Cory was town... but Tina's vote stands out the most because of the rather reliable "talk about XYZ and vote A" tell. I'd be willing to lynch Tina for that but I know we're doing claim resolves or whatever, which is fine, but I'll keep this in mind for later. Gonna see where Hallia landed on this.

Posted

Interesting possible slip. How come you have Lenlo as town? 

 

I´m starting to get conserns about Jack and Lenlo because of their votes on me. I thought Jack was "playing along" to help me get the game starting but he still thinks my vote on him is the scummiest thing that have happened in the game. 

 

@Jack - should I have voted you and written "This is just a vote to get the game started"? Doesn´t work very well, right? Explaining myself too early isn´t very good in cases like this, mostly because there were no reason for picking you. Not that most people didn´t get it anyway. 

 

@Csarmi - I´m sorry to hear that. If you can´t play then ask to get replaced. 

I feel like this is one of those "will be important" posts.

Posted

I see how you could both easily be town.  You're both passionate players, Des just does it with more words, and you do it with a touch more sarcasm.  I'm leaning town on town right now.

 

 

14 pages in.

 

 

For me Cory is the worst.

 

i read Tina as trying to kickstart things with her jack vote and am leaning town on her

 

Didnt like Des' sudden change to Csarmi but the rest seems like town des atm.

 

REALLY didnt like Cory calling des town one second then voting him then unvoting to follow him onto csarmi.

 

vote cory

 

With the surprise flip on Cory (scum wouldn't have known he was going to die I reckon, due to him being a lover)  I was looking for anything that might've pertained to him in a negative light.  Considering I think Des is currently town, Dice here was going after both of him, ping on him.

 

 

 

 

 
 

I explained my csarmi vote before Tina's: csarmi's second post of this game is a "Why, what's wrong" to Tina's response to Jack (? IIRC) - I see that sort of prodding to be rare for town (who are looking more into interactions than being sympathetic mediators), Last game I played with town Salami he was very #YOLO and spammy and this game he's been absent and his few posts have been very reserved; I was maf with him once of VS and remember him being very reserved about it.
Des making an exaggerated case early day 1 is town Des MO; he tries to get the ball rolling instead of being a gutless instigator like you are being
I doubt Tina calls that much attention to herself as town; I've read one game where she was Maf on VS and she was happy to slank to victory as a half-absentee
Give me something concrete, because this "well look at these train formations" wishy-washy commit to nothing one-of-these-three-is-Mafia-but-maybe-not hogwash does not look good on you.
 
Cory, who also had sudden and unexplained "reaction testing" posts as Des, does bring out a better read in this post. I agree about Tina but not the read regarding Des. However, the post is to the point and makes me lean town on Cory. 
 

 

For similar reasons I have a good read on Pral at the moment.

 

 

 

Wait, what you just said contradicted.  You agree that they're both town, but when you say you doubt that one is mafia and not the other, that would indicate that you think one is mafia and one is town.  Which one did ya mean? :happy:

 

 

No worries Dawn!  I was there as a new player myself, I believe help is better to give than criticism. :laugh:

 

Much better :happy:  Which do you think is more likely for the two of them?  I'm leaning town, what about you?

 

 

That's very true. 

 

Vote Dawn

 

 

Why would you say so?  And to me it makes sense right now, as I see both you and Des as town 

 

Here's some Hallia ISO -- she was gone for literally 5 days after her first post, so being AFK for the entirety of D1 makes getting a beat on her difficult. I didn't follow the thought process on the Dawn vote, it looked like she had more reason to sus Dice but ended up voting Dawn. In her defense, she did move back to Dice today. I'm not a fan of her playing the mediator role wrt Des and Darthe. 

 

Posted
 

above i quoted Dawn but mangled the quote boxes

 

Love that tommy didnt catch that darth was paying out on him lol

 

 

@Hallia. Let me get this straight. You voted me for voting Cory because he switched drastically on Des and then followed along like a puppy? Is that right??

 

 

 

Except I didn't vote for you at all? 

 

 

Tommy.

 

Hey.

 

 

Look at me in the eyes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You mafia? o.o

 

 

 

I think Darthe refusing to answer questions is scummy; the one thing that I've been having drilled into my skull is that as town we have no reason to lie and not be forthcoming with well...anything.  Not so sure on both Darthe/Des being town anymore.

 

 

*nodnod* Like the wish spell in D&D, you gotta be careful exactly what you ask.

 

 

I would agree with you there, she would be the most likely candidate.

 

 

Yup, I believe that claim, do I'm dubious of those pushing her. I'll telook when I get off

 

 

Hrm.  For my earlier ping on Dice as well as his position on Tina.

 

Unvote.  Vote Dice

 

 

^ what he said


The remainder of her posts. I feel like her response to Dice was defensive rather than offensive; I've seen her be confident and forthright when she's town and believes in what she's saying. I'm not seeing that here. I didn't even see that post she made to me, I feel like she would have followed up on it by now, but when I voted for her earlier she didn't acknowledge it. But her last ~5 posts or so are very bare bones. I'd say she has reasonable scum equity here. I doubt both she and Dice are scum given she is now voting for him. I suggest we narrow the lynch to one of these two today.

Posted

 

Good news: I'm town. Bad news: it's clutch time in another game I'm in, lemme settle those affairs and then you'll have my attention. 

 

Also hi!

 

Cory, CLIFFS pls

 

Jack D. is my own personal uslydevilu

 

Darthe is being a stonewalling chimneysweep UncleDynamite-level shotgunner

 

You probably would have leapt at the throat of your predecessor when you reread his three posts but he was apparently legitimately busy so #YOLO #LOCKCLEAR

 

Lenlo was really tense and then I told him how tense he was and he instantly got loose

 

Me, Des, Tina are the most obvious scumgroup of all time

 

You're lock clear because three people voted you and then voted somewhere else and that other vote turned out to be town via Darthelogic

 

Clov is being Clov

 

Scum is probably in Clov-Lenlo-Dice-Pral-Darthe-Dawn

 

Hallia should start posting soon so we should know what she is  :cool:

 

Quoting this because I know Cory was town and his reads are usually pretty good.

Posted

My one hesitation with Hallia/Dice wagons is that both are rather scummy looking townies and thus easily mislynchable players. Lynching them is really easy. Doesn't mean they don't deserve scrutiny though.

 

I'm reading Dice ISO now and he looks bad, really bad, worse than Hallia. Digging up posts in a sec.

Posted

you consider len and des vetted darthe? why?  after all the arguing you think des is mafia and the talk about how basic lens questions were, you arent leaning, or reading them town  you think they are vetted? unless there have been a number of cop views ive missed i dont see how. 

 

dont like that post. 

 

vote darthe

 

 

unvote vote Pralaya

 

gut read. do not like that last post

 

 

what is CFD??

 

and do you actually have a reason why i should be lynched des or are you happy to just randomly lynch a townie?  

 

 

For me Cory is the worst.

 

i read Tina as trying to kickstart things with her jack vote and am leaning town on her

 

Didnt like Des' sudden change to Csarmi but the rest seems like town des atm.

 

REALLY didnt like Cory calling des town one second then voting him then unvoting to follow him onto csarmi.

 

vote cory

 

 

I dont caqre if you were the first vote on csarmi cory. You got off him, said des was town then voted him then unvoted and followed him to Csarmi. Its not like you went back to csarmi on your own...you waited til Des went. Hence my vote

 

 

unvote vote jack

 

i dont really like the des train. I think jack is the best choice atm.

 

I wont be here for DL as its like 2am my time

 

 

 

Jack - Emmett Cullen - Town BPV - lynched D1

BFG - Edward Cullen - Town Lover - NK N1

Cory - Bella Swan - Town Lover - Committed suicide D2

 

 

Des

Tina

Verbal

Tommy

Dice

Pral

Hallia

Lenlo

Dawn

Clovdyx

Darthe

 

Thinking Tommy is LOCK CLEAR because of Darthe townspewing him (acted like he was confirmed about Salami being town). Verb looks good to me so far. Think I remember seeing Dice as town from some of his post a while ago. Think it was a tone read. Kinda sad that a couple of my LOCK CLEARS are gone :sad:

 

Thinking Tina could have been right about Lenlo. His last post after the lynch was awful, and then he disappeared.

 

86% confident of finding teh scum in my reds, with only a couple of other tinfoiling candidates. Game is close to #solved.

 

Blue   You think darthe is scum. Yet you think tommy is town because Darthe said so? That does not make sense to me. If Darthe is mafia he could be trying to clear a teammate. Csarmi barely posted so there is no way to really get a read on him one way or another. Please explain

 

I am concerned this is more of your hero worship/auto buddying of Tommy.

 

Regarding Darthe, if he is scum, I am not able to understand why he would FoS both BFG (in one post) and Cory (in a lot of posts) and then kill one of them? Doesn't seem logical. 

THIS! tho if darthe is mafia he could be counting on this reaction.

 

 

 

tommy the biggest running battle is between Darthe and Des. Tina hasn't ereally said a lot.

 

I suspected and voted Cory but obviously i was wrong....tho Bella is definetly evil....

 

 

Actually im leaning Town on you darthe but am still wary of you just in case. Im trying to get an answer to Des' thought process in that.

 

plus the bit about counting on this reaction....if I can think of it and maybe do it I assume better players then me can too. I dont want to discount it is all.

 

Here's some Dice: I tried to ISO posts that he's taken stances in. He appears to be somewhat lost and defensive, like when he snips at Darthe and Des for suspecting him. His voting history up until this point is likely poor, at least 2 confirmed townies and 2 probable townies. His post about Des hero worshiping me just sounds like scum that's annoyed I'm getting cleared correctly, if capriciously. 

 

The problem I'm having with Dice as I read him in ISO is that I can't predict who he is going to suspect next. If you read Cory from start to finish, he's got a fluid and organic thought process. You can see his suspects developing and his posts are consistent. I'm seeing the opposite from Dice, I have no idea where his vote is going to land as I read him, and that's a problem. 

Posted

above i quoted Dawn but mangled the quote boxes

 

Love that tommy didnt catch that darth was paying out on him lol

 

 

@Hallia. Let me get this straight. You voted me for voting Cory because he switched drastically on Des and then followed along like a puppy? Is that right??

 

 

Except I didn't vote for you at all? 

 

 

sorry hallia i shoulda said ping not voted. my bad

 

I partially quoted this convo before but it really really irks me. If one of Dice or Hallia is scum I don't think we should rule out them being scum-scum even with Hallia's vote on Dice right now; if I had to guess, I'd say Hallia is an endgame power role for scum and this is a distancing attempt. It's got the right blend of "aggressive-quip-that-doesn't-go-anywhere" and "oh-okay-we're-cool" for it to set off alarms in my head. 

Posted

Dice's progression on Tina is barely traceable. Here are all four Dice posts where he mentions Tina:

 

For me Cory is the worst.

 

i read Tina as trying to kickstart things with her jack vote and am leaning town on her

 

Didnt like Des' sudden change to Csarmi but the rest seems like town des atm.

 

REALLY didnt like Cory calling des town one second then voting him then unvoting to follow him onto csarmi.

 

vote cory

#1: Leaning town on Tina for "trying to kickstart things."

 

tommy the biggest running battle is between Darthe and Des. Tina hasn't ereally said a lot.

 

I suspected and voted Cory but obviously i was wrong....tho Bella is definetly evil....

#2: Tina "hasn't said a lot."

 

 

 

Dice: I didn´t like his Cory vote yesterday. His reason for voting Jack was because it´s "the best choice" and that he didn´t like the Des train. It´s not really a reason. Can´t remember how close to DL it was. Today he thinks Darthe is town and Des is town after his claim. But who is scum? I don´t get a good feeling from Dice. Add to that when he questioned Hallia why she voted for him even though she didn´t. Actually that exchange was strange:

H: Dice voted Cory d1. Ping!

D: Did you vote me because I voted Cory who voted Des even though he said Des was town and then jumped to another vote?

H: I didn´t vote you.

D: No, I was wrong.

Ehm... Hallia didn´t answer and Dice let it go as well.

 

Hallia jumped at me on the cory vote. I pointed out why i voted cory and asked if that was why she voted me. I used the wrong word . shrug   thats all there is to it.

 

 

I agree that there is probably a mafia member among the three of you.  I thought it was cory. Now with Des' claim im not sure if it is you or him. I thought your change of vote to jack was good but you have not done much since to back it up. Then there is the des/darthe thing and des claims vig. my least fav claim atm.

 

I am watching and thinking. I think that your posts have been very safe. you have only really offered opinions on those that have had something to say regarding one of you, des or cory. everyone else just got one line or so.

 

Know what? the more i think about it the more i think you are trying to use that group that gathered around you for protection.

 

vote tina

 

#3: A vote for Tina.

 

There's very little reasoning here. I'll break it down:

1. Tina's posts have been "safe"

2. Only talked about Des or Cory

3. Believes she is buddying town to be safe?

4. Ignores the claim he just said is pro-town

5. ???

6. Profit

 

 

 

 

Unvote Despot, Vote Lenlo

 

I slept on his claim, and I don't buy his story. 

 

1) Three questions, per night?  If it was three questions for the game, maybe, but the breakability of the role is through the roof.  If Leelou put that in, she should be ashamed.

2) Safe questions.  Nobody is going to come in and say, "Oh he's lying.  I'm the serial killer."

3) Honestly, if his questions are real, they make more sense for scum.  Town doesn't really need to know if there are vanilla roles.  A mafia oracle would give his team a safe fake claim if it came up yes, and if it came back no, they don't have to be AS choosy with figuring out a nightkill target.

 

Tina wouldn't be in my bottom four at this point.

 

Good reasons, but I'm thinking of the flavor of what character this fits.....and if I'm right, that character is 100% town.

 

 

been totally thinking this since the claim

 

Darthe I wish you hadn't added possible characters to that list. 

 

Those possible characters are why im believing des

 

im not sure i believe tina but

 

unvote

 

James would have to be either mafia or third party. len says there is no third party. Doesnt mean james is in the game tho.

 

#4: Unvoting Tina. Again, not much reasoning. Actually, no reasoning.

 

So... what do we do with this?

 

Dice, can you explain your thought process on Tina? You didn't leave much in the thread.

Posted

Okay, I have read the thread and taken notes. 

 

Darthe: I understand what Tommy is saying about his "tone". He is consistent and his outbursts could be from a frustrated townie. But... how hard can it be to be consistent when he just decided that I/Cory/Des are scum on d1 and then not talking about anything other than that? He is in a tunnel where he doesn´t talk about anything than that. Except for the last page when he vote/unvotes Lenlo. Now, he did hint early that he was the one that stole Des´s vote. Not sure if that would indicate being town? Actually, I think all claims have come very quick today.Darthe, you said that your role was Vindictive vote thief. What does vindictive stand for? 

 

Des: There are things that I wonder about him but I still think he is town. Things that I want to ask him is: Why did you list Verbal and Tommy as town in #510? Since you have a town read on Dawn and Clov now - who do you think is mafia instead? 

 

Dawn: Makes no sense whatsoever. Again, I must ask those of you who played with her in her first games - did she play like this as mafia? I do get a newbie town feeling but her reasons for her votes are so bad and she just dropped the ones from yesterday today. 

 

Dice: I didn´t like his Cory vote yesterday. His reason for voting Jack was because it´s "the best choice" and that he didn´t like the Des train. It´s not really a reason. Can´t remember how close to DL it was. Today he thinks Darthe is town and Des is town after his claim. But who is scum? I don´t get a good feeling from Dice. Add to that when he questioned Hallia why she voted for him even though she didn´t. Actually that exchange was strange:

H: Dice voted Cory d1. Ping!

D: Did you vote me because I voted Cory who voted Des even though he said Des was town and then jumped to another vote?

H: I didn´t vote you.

D: No, I was wrong.

Ehm... Hallia didn´t answer and Dice let it go as well. 

 

Tommy: Haven´t done much. Votes Lenlo and says Darthe, Dawn and Pral are town. Have you read the whole thread now?

 

Hallia: Haven´t said much either.  I liked the posts about Dice and Pral but I´m not sure I understand her vote on Dawn. 

 

Verbal: Doesn´t play on weekends but haven´t said much after the weekend either. Have he voted at all? 

 

Pral: I like most of his posts even though I don´t agree with his reason why Darthe wouldn´t want to kill BFG. That is just a big WIFOM. 

 

Lenlo: He voted me in #137 and after that he has not done much but saying over and over again that I´m scum. But then he unvotes me on day 2 because Des says he should??? At the same time he says that Des looks scummier. How does this match? When Des asks him he says that Darthe is horrendous but that he rather vote me, although he is not allowed. Ehm... When Des points out that he hasn´t gone after Darthe at all he suddenly votes Darthe but continue to say that he rather vote me. And then he claims without many votes on him. What in this is town? 

 

Clov: I don´t understand what he was doing on D1. Des says that he scum slipped. Clov tried to explain that if one of the votes on Des was a scum vote then it would have been Cory´s. But he never goes after Cory. Instead he votes Des himself. He also seems to stand on the side line - a comment here, a question there. At the same time I think he have made some logical posts. I have played with him before but don´t know how he played then or if he was town/mafia. I do get bad vibes here. 

 

Did I remember everyone?

As an aside, when I was looking for Dice/Hallia posts I saw this by Tina, she mentions the exact same series of posts from Hallia and Dice. Stronger town read on her for that.

Posted

So I think Dice should be public enemy #1 and Hallia should be #2. I will ISO more players later and see if anyone else is floundering.

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