[Advanced] French Revolution Mafia - Day 3

[peacesells]

 

Problem is...it had previously been stated by the mod we start the day with 3 when he posted the wiki link.

Well, to be fair, mod didn't actually say we all started with 3 loaves of bread. He just posted the link then said, "ONE OR TWO BALANCING MEASURES HAVE BEEN ADDED." Who's to say one of those "balancing measures" wasn't changing the quantity of loaves? I mean, I get your point. And once it's out in the open and being discussed? Sure, it makes sense. But don't you think it was strange that Des DIDN'T pick up on that? I mean, if it was supposed to be so obvious to everyone - scum included - why didn't Des immediately call Mish out on it as he is so apt to do? My gut? He didn't see it. And I think he didn't see it because Mafia have a different game mechanic for handling starvation.

 

 

 

 

I don't know. I didn't comment on the "town slip" when it happened either.  I just nodded my head to myself cause it basically said the same thing as my role pm. 

[Andrej]

 

Occam's Razor isn't the issue.

 

Off-topic discussion is. I will quote a few more posts from him this game where he has done essentially the same thing. His aim doesn't seem to be finding scum, but rather discussing mafia theory.

 

Just ignore the fact that Despo had been scumhunting. You are acting like he was looking for a reason to post when he's already presented many reasons to post. 

 

It would be a legit claim if he hadn't participated in the game...or wanted to belabor setup talking for 5 pages. 

 

 

Dude not at all. Despo is going to post a ton regardless of his alignment and spin things to the angle he sees fit. Just because he makes 'cases' doesn't make them legit. 

 

Look at his voting record: Basel in his OP for missing the 'hungry' thing, GE for 'preemptive guilt', Yates for 'obvscum', Mish for 'snipe post', me for 'obvscum'

[Andrej]

 

UNVOTE

 

VOTE AJ

ALL ABOARD!!!

 

Unvote. Vote AJ.

 

CHOO CHOO BITCHES!!

 

 

GFY. I hope you get Vigged or something.

[Yates]

I was going to eat but this requires a response:

For every one post devoted to off topic stuff from me, I guarantee you I can find 5-10 posts devoted to scumhunting.

Come on. How do we tell Town scumhunting Des from Scum "scumhunting" Des? Again, I've been defended as scum for "scumhunting" in the past. Always makes me giggle.

[Andrej]

 

Occam's Razor isn't the issue.

 

Off-topic discussion is. I will quote a few more posts from him this game where he has done essentially the same thing. His aim doesn't seem to be finding scum, but rather discussing mafia theory.

For every one post devoted to off topic stuff from me, I guarantee you I can find 5-10 posts devoted to scumhunting. You're completely full of shit if you're really trying to say I haven't been scumhunting this game. But w/e, iso away. I'll respond at work tonight.

 

 

Where did I say you aren't scum hunting? I am saying you are also posting a bunch of off-topic bullshit WHICH I PROVIDED AN EXAMPLE OF A GAME YOU WERE SCUM IN TO SHOW THE CORRELATION.

 

I don't even need to say that you are still going to 'case' if you are town or mafia, we have played together enough that we both know that and we have both seen each other as either alignment. Just because you are posting WoTs and 'scum hunting' doesn't mean you are town.

[Yates]

I don't know. I didn't comment on the "town slip" when it happened either.  I just nodded my head to myself cause it basically said the same thing as my role pm.

The difference here is that I *specifically* asked Des about it and he *specifically* required clarification. Give me a sec... I haven't actually put together a Des scum case as it's all in my head currently.

[John E. Kelley]

 

 

UNVOTE

 VOTE AJ

 

ALL ABOARD!!!Unvote. Vote AJ.

CHOO CHOO BITCHES!!

 

GFY. I hope you get Vigged or something.

U mad bro?

[peacesells]

 

 

Occam's Razor isn't the issue.

 

Off-topic discussion is. I will quote a few more posts from him this game where he has done essentially the same thing. His aim doesn't seem to be finding scum, but rather discussing mafia theory.

For every one post devoted to off topic stuff from me, I guarantee you I can find 5-10 posts devoted to scumhunting. You're completely full of shit if you're really trying to say I haven't been scumhunting this game. But w/e, iso away. I'll respond at work tonight.

 

 

Where did I say you aren't scum hunting? I am saying you are also posting a bunch of off-topic bullshit WHICH I PROVIDED AN EXAMPLE OF A GAME YOU WERE SCUM IN TO SHOW THE CORRELATION.

 

I don't even need to say that you are still going to 'case' if you are town or mafia, we have played together enough that we both know that and we have both seen each other as either alignment. Just because you are posting WoTs and 'scum hunting' doesn't mean you are town.

 

 

I didn't say that.  I'm saying that if off topic discussion or derailment is his only contribution..then it's a pretty solid scum tell.  But, since it isn't he only content...it's not a big scum tell. 

[peacesells]

 

 

UNVOTE

 

VOTE AJ

ALL ABOARD!!!

 

Unvote. Vote AJ.

 

CHOO CHOO BITCHES!!

 

 

GFY. I hope you get Vigged or something.

 

 

Are you giving a scum read on Ishy here?

[Yates]

So Des had been posting for a while when I came in and started getting caught up.

 

Then I made my "Mish Town slip" post at 18:33.

 

AJ saw it at 18:35.

 

As of 18:44 Des still didn't see it as evidenced by his accusation that AJ was "Pulling a 180[/url"

 

I specifically address Des and straight up ask him if he sees the slip at 18:46

 

At 18:48 he admits "I didn't catch it."

 

At 18:49 AJ makes a post that clearly illustrates he isn't bluffing knowing the slip I saw.

 

At 18:51 AJ notes that Des "obviously doesn't" see the slip.

 

At 18:52 I am STILL giving Des the benefit of the doubt thinking he'll see AJ's post and figure it out.

 

At 18:56 Goldeneyes says I'm wrong and that mod even pointed it out indicating HE knew what I was talking about.

 

Only THEN - at 18:57 - does Des finally figure out it's related to bread.

 

Yet he still needs further clarification until he FINALLY puts it together at 19:12.

 

How long did it take you to see it again, Peace? It took Des several posts - including posts that almost spelled it out for him - and 45 minutes to get the Town slip.

 

Of course, once GE pointed out the mod post it wasn't really much of a secret anymore. That said, people were taking it seriously enough to start drawing their own conclusions. Ishy, for example, wanted to know who was still voting for Mish at that point after calling her Town. I point out Ishy because he just jumped on the AJ train even though AJ clearly saw the same thing that led Ishy to determine Mish was Town.

[Yates]

NOOOO! My links! My beautiful links!!!

[Andrej]

 

 

 

Occam's Razor isn't the issue.

 

Off-topic discussion is. I will quote a few more posts from him this game where he has done essentially the same thing. His aim doesn't seem to be finding scum, but rather discussing mafia theory.

For every one post devoted to off topic stuff from me, I guarantee you I can find 5-10 posts devoted to scumhunting. You're completely full of shit if you're really trying to say I haven't been scumhunting this game. But w/e, iso away. I'll respond at work tonight.

 

 

Where did I say you aren't scum hunting? I am saying you are also posting a bunch of off-topic bullshit WHICH I PROVIDED AN EXAMPLE OF A GAME YOU WERE SCUM IN TO SHOW THE CORRELATION.

 

I don't even need to say that you are still going to 'case' if you are town or mafia, we have played together enough that we both know that and we have both seen each other as either alignment. Just because you are posting WoTs and 'scum hunting' doesn't mean you are town.

 

 

I didn't say that.  I'm saying that if off topic discussion or derailment is his only contribution..then it's a pretty solid scum tell.  But, since it isn't he only content...it's not a big scum tell. 

 

 

That's fine. I'm saying the Despo is going to post regardless, you should know this. It's not the amount of posts he's making, but the content inside them. He is going to 'case' as scum or town, I am pointing out that several instances he has gone into rambling on off-topic subjects and set-up spec.

[Andrej]

 

 

 

UNVOTE

 

VOTE AJ

ALL ABOARD!!!

 

Unvote. Vote AJ.

 

CHOO CHOO BITCHES!!

 

 

GFY. I hope you get Vigged or something.

 

 

Are you giving a scum read on Ishy here?

 

 

Might as well be, I'm certainly not blown away with his strong town play. Are you town reading him?

[peacesells]

I didn't see the "town slip" till well after Despo did...cause I never considered it a town slip.

[peacesells]

 

 

 

 

UNVOTE

 

VOTE AJ

ALL ABOARD!!!

 

Unvote. Vote AJ.

 

CHOO CHOO BITCHES!!

 

 

GFY. I hope you get Vigged or something.

 

 

Are you giving a scum read on Ishy here?

 

 

Might as well be, I'm certainly not blown away with his strong town play. Are you town reading him?

 

Yes

[Andrej]

Why?

[Yates]

WHY I THINK DES IS SCUM - WITH LINKS

So Des had been posting for a while when I came in and started getting caught up.

Then I made my "Mish Town slip" post at 18:33.

AJ saw it at 18:35.

As of 18:44 Des still didn't see it as evidenced by his accusation that AJ was "Pulling a 180"

I specifically address Des and straight up ask him if he sees the slip at 18:46

At 18:48 he admits "I didn't catch it."

At 18:49 AJ makes a post that clearly illustrates he isn't bluffing knowing the slip I saw.

At 18:51 AJ notes that Des "obviously doesn't" see the slip.

At 18:52 I am STILL giving Des the benefit of the doubt thinking he'll see AJ's post and figure it out.

At 18:56 Goldeneyes says I'm wrong and that mod even pointed it out indicating HE knew what I was talking about.

Only THEN - at 18:57 - does Des finally figure out it's related to bread.

Yet he still needs further clarification until he FINALLY puts it together at 19:12.

How long did it take you to see it again, Peace? It took Des several posts - including posts that almost spelled it out for him - and 45 minutes to get the Town slip.

Of course, once GE pointed out the mod post it wasn't really much of a secret anymore. That said, people were taking it seriously enough to start drawing their own conclusions. Ishy, for example, wanted to know who was still voting for Mish at that point after calling her Town. I point out Ishy because he just jumped on the AJ train even though AJ clearly saw the same thing that led Ishy to determine Mish was Town.

[peacesells]

 

 

 

 

Occam's Razor isn't the issue.

 

Off-topic discussion is. I will quote a few more posts from him this game where he has done essentially the same thing. His aim doesn't seem to be finding scum, but rather discussing mafia theory.

For every one post devoted to off topic stuff from me, I guarantee you I can find 5-10 posts devoted to scumhunting. You're completely full of shit if you're really trying to say I haven't been scumhunting this game. But w/e, iso away. I'll respond at work tonight.

 

 

Where did I say you aren't scum hunting? I am saying you are also posting a bunch of off-topic bullshit WHICH I PROVIDED AN EXAMPLE OF A GAME YOU WERE SCUM IN TO SHOW THE CORRELATION.

 

I don't even need to say that you are still going to 'case' if you are town or mafia, we have played together enough that we both know that and we have both seen each other as either alignment. Just because you are posting WoTs and 'scum hunting' doesn't mean you are town.

 

 

I didn't say that.  I'm saying that if off topic discussion or derailment is his only contribution..then it's a pretty solid scum tell.  But, since it isn't he only content...it's not a big scum tell. 

 

 

That's fine. I'm saying the Despo is going to post regardless, you should know this. It's not the amount of posts he's making, but the content inside them. He is going to 'case' as scum or town, I am pointing out that several instances he has gone into rambling on off-topic subjects and set-up spec.

 

 

Ok..please show the several.  I only remember the OR discussion.

[Yates]

It's not the amount of posts he's making, but the content inside them.

Does Des post off topic more as scum than as town and can you prove it? That should settle this debate. If you can't prove he posts off topic more as scum than as Town, the point is moot.

[peacesells]

WHY I THINK DES IS SCUM - WITH LINKS

 

So Des had been posting for a while when I came in and started getting caught up.

 

Then I made my "Mish Town slip" post at 18:33.

 

AJ saw it at 18:35.

 

As of 18:44 Des still didn't see it as evidenced by his accusation that AJ was "Pulling a 180"

 

I specifically address Des and straight up ask him if he sees the slip at 18:46

 

At 18:48 he admits "I didn't catch it."

 

At 18:49 AJ makes a post that clearly illustrates he isn't bluffing knowing the slip I saw.

 

At 18:51 AJ notes that Des "obviously doesn't" see the slip.

 

At 18:52 I am STILL giving Des the benefit of the doubt thinking he'll see AJ's post and figure it out.

 

At 18:56 Goldeneyes says I'm wrong and that mod even pointed it out indicating HE knew what I was talking about.

 

Only THEN - at 18:57 - does Des finally figure out it's related to bread.

 

Yet he still needs further clarification until he FINALLY puts it together at 19:12.

 

How long did it take you to see it again, Peace? It took Des several posts - including posts that almost spelled it out for him - and 45 minutes to get the Town slip.

 

Of course, once GE pointed out the mod post it wasn't really much of a secret anymore. That said, people were taking it seriously enough to start drawing their own conclusions. Ishy, for example, wanted to know who was still voting for Mish at that point after calling her Town. I point out Ishy because he just jumped on the AJ train even though AJ clearly saw the same thing that led Ishy to determine Mish was Town.

 

Again..never saw it til well after Despo did.  In fact, I don't think I saw it until it was pointed out specifically.   When I read her post initially, didn't come across as a town slip due to all that stuff had been previously resolved.

[Yates]

When I read her post initially, didn't come across as a town slip due to all that stuff had been previously resolved.

So you are asserting that everyone should have known that we ALL KNEW we all started with 3 loaves of bread? Even though the mod said there were adjustments for balance?

[peacesells]

 

When I read her post initially, didn't come across as a town slip due to all that stuff had been previously resolved.

So you are asserting that everyone should have known that we ALL KNEW we all started with 3 loaves of bread? Even though the mod said there were adjustments for balance?

 

 

I'm asserting that given my role pm confirms the 3 loaves, in addition to the MOD wiki post that yes...it is the most likely scenario.  And until there is evidence to prove otherwise, I don't see any reason to think otherwise.

 

But all that being said.  I don't have to be right in this regard...I can can only give my frame of mind at the time.  It wasn't a town slip because it's my understanding that everyone starts with 3. 

[Andrej]

 

 

 

 

 

UNVOTE

 

VOTE AJ

ALL ABOARD!!!

 

Unvote. Vote AJ.

 

CHOO CHOO BITCHES!!

 

 

GFY. I hope you get Vigged or something.

 

 

Are you giving a scum read on Ishy here?

 

 

Might as well be, I'm certainly not blown away with his strong town play. Are you town reading him?

 

Yes

 

 

Why?

[peacesells]

Cause all his statements of pointed out your fallacies.

[Andrej]

Pretty sure that's a typo or something.

 

Again, how would a game like that be balanced? If the Baker is killed before he can give out bread, mafia would instawin once town starved out.

 

The whole point of the Baker role is to make an event which affects everyone. Having it affect only one team would pretty much make it a bastard role.

 

...

 

Ah I see what's going on. On some sites, "town" is interchangeable with the gamethread. Something that happens on thread can be said to have happened "to town", even tho scum are participating as well. Any kind of global event like that affects the town, even if it affects everyone in the game.

 

Think about it rationally for a second tho, from the balance perspective. How would you balance a game where an event can end up killing EVERY townie at once, without affecting scum? Famine is a global event.

 

 

As an aside, you're also not responding to my point about that sort of thing being outside the spirit of the game. Hinting at your role pm to see who doesn't pick up on it is trying to catch scum based on their role pm, not how they play the game. It's a sneaky underhanded method to try to win imo. Didn't Nolder address this in the dead thread of that game?

 

My role pm DOES indicate that a Baker exists, yes. But I didn't drop the ":hungry: @ Baker" line as a role pm hint or test. In games with Bakers, you'll often see obligatory requests for bread. Even in games without one, the role is referenced with lines like that. It's pretty much like stating yourself to be town in a game where a Lie Detector seems to be present. Because the way the Baker role works, both town and scum want bread. Scum would arguably want it moar, considering in general they're more concerned with self-preservation, but no one likes starving to death.

 

It's not really an assumption tho. If you had never heard about let's say.... a Sensor. Upon hearing about the role, would you think that the Sensor might know exactly which people on the train were scum, instead of just how many? I'd hope not, cause that would be an incredibly overpowered role that would be nigh impossible to balance.

 

I still agree that Basel could be scum, but I think there are better candidates right now. Speaking of which, what do you think about Yates right now?

 

Honestly, my views on mafia and its decorum have changed a LOT over the past year or so. There's a lot of things that I used to find acceptable that now seem underhanded to me, and in general I think focusing on the things you SHOULD focus on in mafia has elevated my play somewhat. Worrying too much about theme, mechanics, or little tricks like hinting at your pm or stuff like that keeps you from being able to focus on the REAL meat and potatoes of this game: trying to read people and use logic and intuition to "solve" the puzzle that is each and every game. Case in point- I used to be cool with mass claims, even promoted them in some instances. Now I find that to be a fairly cheap maneuver, and am only open to resorting to that if town has been steamrolled so far and needs any bit of help to have a chance of coming back.

 

Are you talking about a generic towntell Yates, or a reference to something in the role pm? I think I already made it clear I don't like using tricks like that to try and catch scum.

 

@ Despo - your preaching of using role PMs as a cheap tactic is starting to come across more as concern that you won't understand the signs that other players are.

 

Just know that there are two definitions you'll generally see for Occam's Razor- one wrong and one right.

 

The one often quoted and referenced is "All things being equal, the simplest answer tends to be the correct one", which is actually a misrepresentation of the theorem. I've been yelled at with cries of "semantics!" time and time again, but I care not for I genuinely believe the theorem is used incorrectly far too often.

 

The accurate definition of the theorem is "Among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis that makes the fewest assumptions should be the one selected". The reason this makes sense is that when you are trying to create a proof of something, you want to use whichever methods have the least bit of variable to them. It's much easier to "vet" a theory if there are less "what ifs" that can make the results of the study or experiment go askew.

 

Here's another part of the problem- it is probably most often referenced nowadays in situations like philosophical discussions, or debates, or detective novels and such. But that's not what the theorem was created for- it was created for use by mathematicians and statisticians. It honestly isn't really that effective when dealing with trying to solve some kind of puzzle, as some of the biggest and most groundbreaking ideas used in the modern world came from making giant leaps of faith (for instance Einstein's Relativity).

 

As far as in mafia, I think it's even less applicable. A game that at it's roots revolves around deception uses theorems like Occam's Razor and completely flips them on their heads. Finding the hidden scum often requires going through several different assumption about possible connections and ploys and miriads of potential scenarios. Trying to always go for the simplest explanation would be trying to reduce the game to something simple itself, which it is not.

 

Granted, it's still important not to make too many assumptions, as you can build your whole theory of who the scum might be on a house of cards that can all fall down with the wrong flip, so it's important to be open-minded. But at the end of the day, most lynches aren't determined by a very exact science, it has more to do with a number of complex interactions between a number of players. So looking for any and all connections between players is still important, and thinking ahead to how someone's flip might change things is an important part of the info-gathering stage in mafia games.

 

Uh, well I hate to burst you and Hallia's bubble, since I'm sure you are high-fiving eachother on your QT('s), but yeah here was my reaction to Hallia's post-

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrZWPcEAz1M

 

It essentially just summarized a bunch of what's happened in the 14 ( ) pages of gameplay so far, and gives out one town read on a player (Peace). Right after she parrots something AJ said about Thorum, who I have a town read on right now.

 

So at this point in the game, she has sniped a couple of people (Mish, Thorum), given one town read, and one summary post. Yep, looks like same ol Hallia to me. Sorry if that makes me sound like an asshole. But it's not too difficult to come up with a summary type post and one town read. I'm more concerned with who she actually thinks could be scum, without just coattailing on something someone else says on someone.

 

 

Whoa whoa now who's disparaging her play.

 

I've never tried to insinuate that Hallia is a bad player, or someone who "needs progress". On the contrary, I've seen several games where her intuition was amazingly accurate as town, and she's generally good at staying under the radar as scum. The problem I have with Hallia is that her playstyle makes her nigh impossible to read, by sniping every so often and fluffing and coasting her way through the rest. Granted, this probably benefits her, as being difficult to read means she's less likely to get caught as scum. But when she's town it makes it incredibly inconvenient for other townies in her game who would want to clear her off their suspects list. And because of this, and because she often doesn't vocalize her support for a lynch on one of her reads very strongly, her words often don't carry much weight with the rest of town so her great intuition ends up not being that effective.

 

I have seen Hallia post better scumhunting type posts than that tho. It's not a matter of if she is capable, I already knew that she was. I just try pushing her to see if she'll eventually start getting more active in the scumhunt, so that she can broadcast her towniness and also get others to follow her reads more often. And, as scum, I think being more active would make it more difficult for her, but that would make the times she won as scum that much more impressive. Sorry, but I don't much care for it when a scum team wins by pretty much laying low and coasting the whole game. It might be a somewhat effective strategy, but it's more a victory of attrition and not some stunning power play by brilliant minds working together.

 

...

 

You cut out the part of the quote that came right after however. When looking for good lynch targets, of course you have to try and prepare for the future, after however they flip. This requires making the kinds of links and connections that you both condemn and use yourself, which are basically assumptions in and of themselves. Alternatively for mafia, when they are trying to plan their NK, it is almost never wise to go for the most obvious, or simplest solution. Making the least amount of assumptions would mean not assuming that someone's PR hint was actually designed to draw a NK from someone else, when really that would most likely be the best move.

 

And again, the solution to a puzzle as complex as many mafia games will rarely be one you arrive to quickly without having to make many assumptions. Trying to oversimplify things is like trying to take shortcuts, and that can turn out to be disastrous. Which is why I don't like discounting the possibility of anything in mafia, no matter how far fetched it might be.

 

...

 

Actually in the longer post I did on OR I did start to talk about what you pointed out, how really OR is the first step in someone trying to prove a theorem or perform analysis or something, but I edited it out cause I thought I was already starting to get long winded in that post.

 

My point is it's just not very effective in a situation that is kind of meant to be complex, as mafia is.