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Merlin Mafia [Advanced!]- Town Wins!!!


wheeloftime13

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Posted

 

Official Vote Count

 

 

Kaylee (2/11): Player, Thorum

Basel (11/11): Razen, kraka, Think, Mish, Kaylee, Rhea, Hallia, Womby, Chuckles, Tigraine, TG

Womby (1/11): Bob

Hallia (1/11): Darthe

Chuckles (1/11): Despo

 

That's a lynch!!! scene coming up...

 

 

 

Official Vote Count 

 

Tigraine (1/10):  Chuckles

Chuckles (10/10): Despo, peace, Mish, Thorum, Tiink, Womby, Player, kraka, alannalynn, Tigraine

Womby (1/10): Bob

Razen (1/10): TG

 

That's a lynch!!! scene coming up...

 

There are four remaining players who were on both lynches.  Obviously not a guarantee of scum but IMO a good place to start.

 

 

Quoting this again for reference.

 

 

Wombat.

 

I keep getting a town read, which is frustrating because I almost never get a scum read from Wombat unless he seriously mucks it up.  I think it's because he's rarely been scum when I've played with him.

 

Despo on the other hand...

 

Scummy cliffhanger halfassed fos with no explanation or reasoning

 

Not gonna quote it, but Tigs quoted pretty much every post between me and Wombat arguing about Occam's Razor. First of all, completely unnecessary to copy every single post. I highly doubt anyone had forgotten or missed that conversation, you could have just as easily made your point without quoting a single post. And btw, I wouldn't say that the discussion about Occam's Razor was completely unrelated to this game. Wombat first brought it up, and I might have addressed that even if Darthe hadn't defined the concept poorly, because I think it is a mistake to use Occam's Razor in mafia. Between all the wifom, gambits, fake claims, railroading, buddying, and other strategies that players in mafia use, the simplest explanation can rarely be said to be correct. If so then gambits would ALWAYS work. You can't oversimplify a game like this, it's complexity is part of the beauty about it.

 

And as I mentioned, it's a personal pet peeve of mine when I see people misuse or misunderstand the concept of Occam's Razor. I also think it is appropriate to call someone out for bringing it up in a mafia game since it really doesn't belong in the world of mafia.

 

And either way, if we're continuing to also offer other thoughts related to the game, then you can't really say it ever derailed the scumhunt. When I called out others for derailing the scumhunt, it's because I saw a matter dominate the discussion for a while that wouldn't really help net town any scum, and no one else was really talking about anything besides that.

 

Who cares? Plenty of people post stuff that isn't related to the game. It didn't slow down our game argument so why are you making such a big deal out of nothing? Kinda feels like that pointless vig discussion that you and Chuckles and Krak were having earlier.

 

Hate to agree with Wombat, but yeah. What he said.

 

 

Just caught up really quick. Darthe is scum.

 

Unvote, Vote Darthe (can't remember if I had a vote.

 

He's spouting complete drivel and trying to wrap it up in fancy words to make it seem like he's actually saying something useful. Gaming the mod to try and say there could be a backup SK instead of a 5th scum? Yeah that's about as scummy as you can get. And that older player/newer player pool "theory" is complete crap. Random.org doesn't consult player's experience levels before choosing roles and alignments, and saying you'd look at newer players while "someone else" looks at older players just reeks of trying to setup a teammate later on down the road to case someone specific.

 

This is bullshat.  I am considering possibilities with the backup SK which, in my opinion, is pretty well founded and the theory isn't about what random.org selects.  Considering how intelligent you are or think you are I would think you could see that if you separate a specific group based on any variable (even one you create) and then individually and systematically examine them you will be able and more clearly find disparities/ avoid cloudy judgement caused by too much going on.  In this instance however, it simply isn't a random variable because experience has effects on gameplay.  Furthermore I find it beyond difficult to believe that you are against this and yet somewhat accepting of Wombats theory based on... conjecture?

 

No evidence of a backup SK yet. So no, the possibility of there being one isn't really that well founded at all.

 

And separating a group based on perfunctory guidelines will do exactly what you claim to be trying to keep from doing: clouding town's judgement. The mafia team could be made up of all experienced players. It could be made up of all noobs. Discounting, even in a slight manner, any member of either group as a possible candidate for scum is dumb. I don't really think you're dumb, I just think you think you're extremely intelligent, and you wanna try and show that off a bit too much by trying to think laterally, even though the things you bring up are often just completely nonsensical ideas.

 

So the thing is, anytime you bring up one of these hare-brained little schemes, it makes me think you could be leading town away from what they really should be doing- hunting scum. Looking for odd behavior. Catching slips and contradictions. Mafia has been played for a long time, and it's a bit like chess in that no one will ever devise the "perfect" strategy, ie one that can't be countered. If you're town, spend less time trying to flex your mental muscles in ways that really won't end up helping town, and use those efforts instead to study others in the game. If you're scum, like I think you are, well, diaf.

 

 

Also, hate to have to say this yet again, but once again Darthe you're completely misusing and misexplaining Occam's Razor.

 

The ACTUAL principle states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. The whole "all things being equal, the simplest explanation tends to be the right one" is really just a cutesy memorable sounding quote which actually misses the mark. It has nothing to do with what is RIGHT, it has to do with what is practical.

 

If you're testing a hypothesis, the less assumptions you're dealing with the better, because that is less variables that are unaccounted for that could possibly taint the findings. If you're trying to validate a hypothesis that has an inordinate amount of assumptions, you are somewhat doomed from the start since so much of your theory hangs on unproven notions.

 

Thus, there is no Clintonian debate about what constitutes the "simplest" explanation, it is simply whichever one literally has less assumptions.

 

And to reiterate, it has no bearing on what hypothesis would actually end up being true. There are countless phenomena in this world that used to be explained with a "simple" explanation, when the actual process turned out to be incredibly complex.

 

Basically, if you're getting your definition of a logical principle like Occam's Razor from a Matthew McConaghey quote in the movie Contact, you're doing it wrong.

 

This essentially WIFOMed a simple definition for anyone wanting to grasp the concept..

 

No. I corrected the false definition that had been given out. Those who wanted to grasp the concept had a bad head start because you led them astray.

 

 

 

Also, totally willing to lynch Vambram today too.

 

Something we agree on in a world of ambiguity.

 

 

Note another person stating they are willing, I think I have quoted a few of these through the post to prove that it happened a lot.

 

Nulltell imo. A lot of players have stated willingness to lynch lurkers lately, and Vam's play has def been the definition of that.

 

 

Personally, I'm gonna Vote Krak

 

He was the first person to bring up a Lie Detector possibility, and yet as far as I remember, he didn't join in when (mostly) everyone stated they were town. To me, it smells of mafia knowing there's an LD, probably because they have a silver tongue. He was pushing hard on me, probably hoping to distract the LD to check me and thus give the mafia another free night. Even bringing it up again today, completly uneccessary. I see no reason why he should bring it up again today. I stated quite clearly last day that I'm town. So why keep bringing it up? Maybe he was hopnig the LD would speak up and say they'd checked me, so the mafia knew who the LD was.

 

You keep talking about an LD..

 

LOL. Didn't you recently state you were completely happy with "letting the LD hide"? I'll quote it in a sec for reference, but yeah, you did. This doesn't look like you were willing to "let the LD hide" whatsoever. You very clearly draw more attention to the fact that she was talking about LD's. If you wanted to keep it hidden, why address it at all?

 

 

What an incredibly scummy post. First of all, you overuse the whole "You create enough chaos/smoke for others to hide behind" thing. Second, did you even READ any of my other posts on Thorum, or did you merely try to take one out of context to try and namake me look scummy? Oh right, the latter.

 

I said multiple times that I have a deep town read on Thorum. Wombat said that now he was starting to make no sense, and I gave an example of how he hasn't made sense all game. Do I consider Thorum's pea-brained reasoning to be anti-town? Of course. That doesn't mean I wouldn't rather lynch scum today.

 

I wish more had responded to my points on Darthe, but for now I'd like to get an actual train going. Vam won't offer much either way methinks, hell just come in and whine about being voted for inactivity. I think we should pressure Tigraine to illustrate the new commitment to discouraging crappy lurky behavior.

 

Unvote, Vote Tigs

 

This post was some of the biggest BS all game.  First, calling a post scummy doesn't help anything except to attempt and bias other readers.  The expression used is reinforcing that before you get into anything, as a matter of fact the entire first paragraph is rhetoric rather than reasoning and is (hah) scummy. Past this, how can you argue both that you find Thorum's anti-town play to not be legitimate cause for a lynch but then turn around and say that Tigraines anti-town play is reason for a lynch?  That isn't even in different posts, and in the midst of doing so you stick in a jab on me, wombat, and chainsaw defend Vam.  

 

^This Post is bs.

 

Dude you are ridiculous. I didn't just state that the post was scummy and move on, I explained WHY it was scummy. And just saying something is "rhetoric" without actually addressing the point or why it's rhetoric is the exact same thing you're accusing me of here, which I didn't actually do.

 

I stated before that I had a derptown read on Thorum. Why would I want to lynch someone I think is town? Tigs admitted to being a lurker, seemed almost proud of it in fact. I didn't want to lynch her for lurking, I was already suspicious of her for other reasons. The lurking thing was just added incentive to others. Incidentally, she is correct in that she isn't really lurking anymore. Doesn't make me think she's town, but I just wanted to throw that out there. 

 

I'm not a day vig.

 

I'm confirmed innocent (or will be soon) because no one will counterclaim being Lancelot, and if they do, you'll all know who's next to lynch. Exactly the same as with Halia, because no one counterclaimed being Arthur.

 

Sigh. This is what I meant when I said derptown.

 

Thorum, there are easily three possibilities here, of which only one you're really considering.

 

1. The Lancelot claim could be a mod-given safe fake claim.

2. You're fake claiming Lancelot, for a number of diff reasons: to try and draw the real Lancelot out, if the mafia team thought he had a cool role; or because you thought he might not be in the game (far-fetched, but still a possibility). You have kind of addressed this because you say there hasn't been a CC, but one BIG thing you're glossing over is...

3. The thing Hallia brought up about Lancelot possibly being scum because he was resurrected and converted to the dark side in the show. I actually have more on this, but I'll get to that in a bit.

 

Either way, you are NOT confirmed yet man, stop acting like you are.

 

Agreed that a lot of people have mentioned a willingness to vote Vambram today though. I disagree with Des that it wouldn't bring info. Any lynch is an info lynch if you're paying attention. Also, what's the difference between Tigs lurking and Vambram lurking? I feel like we're getting a lot more from Tigs lately anyways. If you want to discourage lurking, then an actual lurker would be a better option for a lynch if all you want to do is prove a point.

 

I need to go to bed.

I wasn't saying a lynch on Vam wouldn't bring any info, I was trying to say that an extra vote on him wouldnt really accomplish much since he's been so inactive. When we still have a lot of time left in the day, I'd rather place my vote where it has the best chance to pressure someone, adding another vote to an inactive wouldn't have really done that.

 

And yes, you can get info from any lynch, but lynching an inactive doesn't usually give you as much.

 

And I said this above, but I didn't want to lynch Tigs solely for lurking. She did lurk a lot more day 2, but in general I'm getting a scummy read from her. If you want me to do an all out case on her, I can. Not today however, I doubt we could get her lynched with like 14 hours left. 

 

unvote, vote Wombat

 

Darthe is too focused on confusing mechanics and is not focused on scumhunting.  Wombat is all over the place and doing his best to derail town in every meaningful way.  Razen is doing his best to scum-lurk to endgame.

 

This post, all the way. Pretty much states my exact thoughts on each of those players in a much more succint way than I could have. Also liked his previous catchup post. My read on TG has def swung to town.

 

I am 100% town.

Don't like this. All this debate going on about how you should word statements to the LD to be checked, and you come in and say it in this manner? I'll be honest, I don't really see any wiggle room in this myself, but the fact that it's somewhat ambiguous at all considering the consternation about the statement bothers me. 

 

Hay guisde let's have everyone say "this statement is false" I thikn it'll brake da silvertongue

 

:laugh:

 

 

I am town.  I win with town.

 

Still think we lynch from the four players on both town lynches.

 

Mish:  claimed LD

Wombat:  Mish claims to have checked him for lying.  Asserts he is town.

Tigraine:  Have not seen reveal or reason not to lynch.  Anyone want to defend her?

Kraka:  my #1 choice for scum at this point.  Highly recommend we lynch him now.

 

I'm still at this point.  Could also lynch Wombat to verify Mish's LD claim.

 

 

That wouldn't verify Mish's claim in any way... this and the fact that you thought killing Wombat would verify Thorum's claim worries me somewhat. Still have a slight town read on you however.

 

Seriously, regardless of what alignment he is, he's bringing down the game by acting like a douchebag.

 

I don't think I was the first to act like a douchebag in this game. Don't think I'll be the last either. But either way, I'll try to be less of a douche.

 

Popular tonight aren't you despo?

 

This reads to me like an instigating type post to me. Like an annoying kid yelling "FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!"

 

You also recommended I ask for replacement. You really wanna see me out of this game, don't you? Afraid I'll out your whole team?

 

Despo, if you care so little about whether you are lynched and have lost interest then maybe you should ask to be replaced.

 

Guys, trust me, when it gets to where you aren't having fun anymore...get the hell out!

 

I feel like I'm back in 3rd grade...some of you guys are acting very childish and it's sucking the fun out of it. I thought we were all here to have a good time...so get your damn acts together and let's play this game.

Nah, I think I'll try a bit harder to revitalize my interest in the game. Your turn is coming.

 

:biggrin:

 

I'm about done playing with people like this.  If you want to toss insults at me then you can come to me about it, but since it is in thread I have to take it as gameplay and it is not something that I will do back on a place like DM where that is not allowed.  Csarmi, Notbob, Despo, and others have now all said things to this nature to me for being who I am and generally refinding excitement in a mafia game when I tried to step back up on activity.

 

Being an ass to make waves and play the game is something you can shrug off des, but treating other people poorly is something you shouldn't.

 

I'll be back when I can be nicer.

 

First of all, this seems a little bit like mock indignation to me. This isn't the first time I've described my distaste for your penchant for elaborate nonsensical maneuvers. Why act all affronted now?

 

Second, if I really did hurt your feelings, sorry. I don't actually have anything personal against you as a whole, I just really don't like your playstyle in games now. When you first started on DM, I was impressed by your mind and craftiness. I think somewehere along the line it went to your head however, because you really do play with way too much ego, and it doesn't come off like braggadocio and chicanery, like how mine often is. There are those who don't realize that I act like I act sometimes just to be funny. I really don't have nearly as big of an ego as a lot of you seem to think I do. In fact in real life I find humility and modesty to be some of the most venerable traits. I know, I know, some are probably snickering at those words, but it's true. But hey, in an online forum, why not try on a different skin? I am usually very self-deprecating on a day to day basis, it's fun to act completely the opposite at times. And those who really know me well enough on these forums know it IS an act. I don't feel like your style is much of an act in mafia, I think you really think you are the shiznet.

 

 

And to elaborate on why I think Darthe has been a tool lately, I just think his ego has been way out of control ever since he remembered he was in this game. And then with his whole fluff posts using fancy words to try and hide he fact that he was spouting nonsense, along with general ridiculous schemes that truly offer no actual help in finding scum, and to me it looks like a bit of EP has rubbed off on him. He's probably scum, but also seems like a general jackass this game. Some of y'all prob think that about me, but Meh what cha gonna do. My play style has rankled people since the moment I started playing mafia here. When I get pissed off, I show it, and it pisses me off when I see so many people exhibiting anti-town behavior and generally focusing on the wrong aspects of the game.

I think I have a similar fight with Darthe most games

The only thing worse is his number theories

 

Ok now I'll go back though that all again and quote a lot more

 

 

 THANK YOU! So glad you brought up the number thing, that absolutely grated my nerves when I saw him focus on that. :darkone:

 

Here you go Darthe, complete and final proof that your numbers theory is complete bs:

 

For those that don't know, Darthe occasionally uses probabilities to try and figure out his feelings on someone, by looking at the player list. If there are one or more scum bunched up on the player list together, he will argue that the probability of other players close to those same players being scum is low. This is not the case at all.

 

3! = 6

 

You probably already know what factorials are, but just in case I'll summarize. Factorials represent the total number of permutations that can exist in a system. I'm using 3! because it will be easiest to show, even tho you'd never see a mafia game with only three players. To be as simple as possible, I'm only having three roles: mafia (M), town cop ©, and vanilla town (V). Here we go!

 

1. M, C, V 2. M, V, C 3. C, M, V 4. C, V, M 5. V, M, C 6. V, C, M

 

As you can see, with only three roles, there are 6 possible combinations and placements of those roles. So when random.org assigns the roles, it considers all the possible combinations, then select a certain combination randomly (1-6). Factorials get incredibly immense with the more possible roles you have, and I won't go through them all. 4! = 24 btw. Suffice it to say however, that when you plug in the player list into the random.org list generator, it doesn't assign the roles one at a time, it assigns them all at the same exact time after randomly picking one of the possible combinations.

 

I hope now you will finally give up that awful argument.

Posted

People are still scumhunting by the non-existent "law of averages?" That's the most discouraging thing I've heard in a mafia game in years.

Posted

Symps are not town. They are mafia who cannot communicate with the other mafia. That is the classic definition of the role. Anyone who says a symp is town is either dissembling or mistaken.

 

And it's not hypocritical to call Des out for his bandwagon vote as it was dressed up to look like a reasoned-out vote. When I bandwagon, I don't hide it. When scum bandwagon, they sometimes try to make their votes look more legit than they are.

 

And Peace's rolefishing was purely anti-town. There was nothing pro-town about it.

 

If you think all I was doing was bandwagoning onto Krak, then you haven't been paying attention to my posts this game. I FOS'd Krak looong before a train developed on him.

 

And I def wouldn't say that Peace's rolefishing, as you describe it, was pro-town. In retrospect it obviously wasn't a move that helped town, anyone can see that. I was saying that his intentions looked like they were genuine to me, that he was trying to catch scum. Basically I didn't see it as rolefishing, and instead saw it as scumhunting. If someone is trying to pressure someone that they think is scum, and end up drawing a cop out, you usually don't blame them if that cop was acting kinda scummy, like earlier in this game with Hallia.

Posted

And mish was a victim of herself

 

I don't think peace is an angel but most other people wouldn't of claimed

I lay the blame with mish. Peace is just the enabler

The dirty enabler lol

Posted

Okay and real quick I wanted to make this a separate post, because Dap's research into the characters made me think of something-

 

So we know characters from season 4 are being used, so then it stands to reason that events that happened in that season might have had bearing on how the mod chose to design and setup certain roles. So it's def possible that Lancelot could be an antitown character in this game. However, it kinda looks like that storyline with Lancelot was somewhat shortlived, so it also seems a little unlikely that the mod would ignore Lancelot's "alignment" in the first 3 seasons and instead focus solely on the last season.

 

So, I was wondering if Thorum could possibly have that role, I'm not sure what the name is, where you start out as one alignment, but then after being lynched or NK'ed you come back as the opposite alignment. The role was featured in the Star Wars Mandalorian game on Myndjack a while back. I don't know how else the mechanics would usually run, but in that game it diverted to alt characters for a bit to disguise the switch. I obv don't think that would happen here, but I do think it's possible Thorum could have a role like that. Just thought I'd throw that out there, seems like it would fit well with canon, and I also thought 1-shot vig was just a little weak for Lancelot.

 

What yall think?

Posted

Hallia wasn't that scummy.  She was the victim of mob mentality.

 

Not that scummy, but she herself admitted she was trying to look a little scummy to try and avoid the NK.

 

And mish was a victim of herself

 

I don't think peace is an angel but most other people wouldn't of claimed

I lay the blame with mish. Peace is just the enabler

The dirty enabler lol

 

I agree with this

 

Also, combinations are more relevant than permutations to the way you guys have described Darthe's theory.

 

Yeah, that's why I said combinations the second time. But the two are somewhat synonymous in terms of the way I was summarizing it.

Posted

Okay and real quick I wanted to make this a separate post, because Dap's research into the characters made me think of something-

 

So we know characters from season 4 are being used, so then it stands to reason that events that happened in that season might have had bearing on how the mod chose to design and setup certain roles. So it's def possible that Lancelot could be an antitown character in this game. However, it kinda looks like that storyline with Lancelot was somewhat shortlived, so it also seems a little unlikely that the mod would ignore Lancelot's "alignment" in the first 3 seasons and instead focus solely on the last season.

 

So, I was wondering if Thorum could possibly have that role, I'm not sure what the name is, where you start out as one alignment, but then after being lynched or NK'ed you come back as the opposite alignment. The role was featured in the Star Wars Mandalorian game on Myndjack a while back. I don't know how else the mechanics would usually run, but in that game it diverted to alt characters for a bit to disguise the switch. I obv don't think that would happen here, but I do think it's possible Thorum could have a role like that. Just thought I'd throw that out there, seems like it would fit well with canon, and I also thought 1-shot vig was just a little weak for Lancelot.

 

What yall think?

 

The role is Saulus.  I think it is unlikely to be the case but I suppose we would know if we lynched Thorum and he didn't die.

 

Also, I hate thinking about that game because I let everyone down :(

Posted

And erm, I wasn't advocating lynching Thorum to test that theory per se. But I am considering it as a possibility now.

 

BTW, did John Snow ever resurface?

Posted

WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH!

 

Dap, did you say you went through KRak's old games? And there was never an LD? But he said he was the LD in the last game he was in!

 

 

 

 

And no, no sign of Snow :/

Posted

I don't like the way this is going...

 

 

 

 

 

God damn it Peace! I AM the lie detector. Happy now? I've breadcrumbed it enough, but that wasn't good enough for you is it? You just had to make me say it?

 

 

I was on the look-out for people hinting to an LD because I know there is a big chance the mafia has a silver tongue and so knew about me. That's why Krak stuck out to me so, with him pushing on me. Now I can also tell you that Thorum said D1 he was not mafia, and that is true, and Wombat said D2 that he's town, and that was also true. One of them might be the silvertounge of course; there's always that chance.

Peace I was agreeing with your post up until you fishy fished for the LD to come out. It's actually more benefit for the town if um... the LD is not known? Comprends? And Mish Mish Mish... you had no pressure except from Peace... and Krak(?). Why would you reveal unless you found scum anyways? Nobody was really looking at you. Just.. *sigh* These are rhetorical questions.

 

Some experienced players seem baffled about the roles of LD and ST. This is odd to me. It's not like the roles have never been used before. I'm namely FOSing Krak here. You were pushing the LD side earlier, without knowing what you were doing?

 

Baffled is a strong word if you were directing it at me.  I asked for specifics of the ST's role - I've never come across one.  And yeah I pushed the LD, it seemed like Mish was intentionally misphrasing.  I was a LD in the last game I played, so it was on my mind that there might be a reason she was wording her phrase so weird.  I didn't think she would turn out to be an LD.

 

 

Rather: I don't know if he's the ST; I don't have proof either way. He could be, or another of the mafias could be.

 

Speaking of wich... I'm also adding Despo to my pile of suspects. He was the one who started on me with Kaylee with this post:

 

 

 

Sorry for the double post. Stupid DM.

 

Also, since I brought it up, we might as well get it set in stone so there's no wiggle room later:

 

Kaylee and Mish, are you two masons?

 

That's what's Krak been following up on afterwards, what started him pushing on me.

 

 

So are you saying that your phrasing in answer to Despothera's question was a hint that you were LD, or was it just how you decided to say it?

 

So are YOU saying you picked up on this hint or are you saying that you are a scummy mcscumster? The latter seems more of the case.

 

What I'm asking is if she started breadcrumbing her role all the way back when I first asked her that question on day 1.  I obviously didn't pick up the hint, and it would seem no one else did either as Mish continued to be on suspect lists and people kept pressing her about the LD.  As for myself, looking back, I should not have mentioned anything at the beginning of Day 3.  That was my mistake.

 

 

 

Out of these four, I'm most comfortable with the Krak lynch, his 'knowledge' of the LD is a little suspicious, and if he's ST he may confirm Mish (him being ST seeming likely at this point).

 

 

 

 

This is a messy quote since Krak was quoting Alanna saying a bunch of things, it's his responses in blue, and I've bolded and enlarged where he said he was an LD.

Posted

Oh and if someone reacts; I removed a quote from peace at the top, to make it easier to read now. But just press the little arrow button on the way right where the quote from Krak starts, and you'll see the original post with that quote.

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