Merlin Mafia [Advanced!]- Town Wins!!!

[alannalynn]

I was supposed to get a phone upgrade in March and my parents robbed that from me. Just like they robbed me of my college money and robbed me of any chance to get financial aid. I'm bitter.

[Thorum]

Thorum has got some family he likes to visit sometimes during the weekend. Is that allowed without getting lynched for not role- and characterclaiming? Which of you have, so far?

 

Let me put all your minds to rest, and reveal: I'm Lancelot.

 

I'm a vig, which explains why I thought there were double roles (but Kaylee turned out to have lied about her role). Which is also why I did not give a good reason for why I thought there could easily be double roles before.

 

I voted wombat because he's (day 1 and 2) been WAY too certain of my innocence to be so himself, as I have been stating since quite early. His vote today only confirms me in this, since he now has to distance himself from me because I WILL turn out to be town. Also, he's been very active yesterday during my absence, taking advantage of it to get everyone to think everyone agrees on my scummyness, which it ain't.

 

Any more questions?

[Thorum]

Reading four pages made me forget one thing about the initial vote by wombat. He claims he's thinking of hosting a game himself, having invented a mafia role for that, and I fit that description perfectly? That's probably the worst reason I've ever heard to vote someone. Well, probably not, but it is at least the worst reason someone has ever voted for ME.

[Thorum]

And, Vambram, logic is WAY more important than experience in mafia. See my rant on some stupid believes during day one. Linguistic skills are even more important, which is why I always get lynched day 2-3-4.

 

I am a one-shot vig. I'm not gonna say whether I already used it and/or on who, since mafia is also listening.

 

Vambram: FoS. Voting for me "because a lynch would need two more votes"? Had two mafia beeen online, this vote would have made it very easy. Or you are mafia, and have urged your companions to vote quickly, before I claimed Lancelot (which would have been the wrong character to claim had I been lying, as with Hallia).

 

Where is Hallia, btw? Now we HAVE a confirmed innocent, she's not actually letting us use that :(

[Thorum]

For the eventual lie detector: the above three posts contain the full thruth.

[Thorum]

WARNING: I will be offline for about 8 hours now. Questions can be answered, but unvotes should be first.

 

I do not believe Hallia is lying. She claimed Arthur, a strong character that'll definitely be town & in the game. Like Merlin, Uther, Gwen or Merlin's teacher (who's name I've just now forgotten)

[Thorum]

atm, player is online.

[WWWwombat]

Why should we unvote? And if you're so convinced I'm scum, why haven't you killed me?

[WWWwombat]

You seem awfully worried about being lynched for a one-shot vig. Also, why did you roleclaim?

[WWWwombat]

Come morning, the castle was silent as if holding its breath to see what the night had brought... A maid walked to a storage room, and noticing that the door was already slightly open, she pushed gently and was met with a horrifying sight. A beautiful woman lay in two pieces on the floor with a vial near her hand. Running from the room, she brought guards and Gaius. His face betraying his shock, he asked the guard to bring the king.

 

King Uther did not liked to be summoned, but whatever had caused him to be awoken early on request of Gaius, he knew must be important... Stepping inside the storage room, he looked down at the woman and looked up at Gaius.

 

"How did she get in?" Uther demanded.

 

"I do not know, sire. Nimueh has always been a powerful priestess. She could've transformed herself into anyone."

 

Looking back down at the priestess that had let his wife die, Uther felt triumphant before another thought dawned on him. "Whoever killed her may have been working with her or did not want her to get in the way."

 

"It seems very likely."

 

Kaylee- Nimueh, Serial Killer has been Night Killed!

 

It is now Day 2, and it will end on Friday at 20:00 EST http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130614T20&p0=263&fg2=9acd79&msg=Merlin+Mafia+Day+2

 

(note, I am sorry that my timer was wrong during the Night phase... )

 

Kaylee dies, revealing her roleclaim to be a lie.

 

 

Roles can be used double/triple/... Characters cannot. Hence, a character reveal is a lot stronger, and very much preferable to town.

 

Thorum floats his duplicate role theory to justify his having asked Hallia for a character claim.  I'm pretty sure this is the first time he mentioned duplicate roles because I remember going wtf at it.  I haven't checked though.

 

 

In this game? Yes, there could be multiple doctors. Thogh probably not.

 

Continues to push duplicate roles.

 

 

Thorum has got some family he likes to visit sometimes during the weekend. Is that allowed without getting lynched for not role- and characterclaiming? Which of you have, so far?

 

Let me put all your minds to rest, and reveal: I'm Lancelot.

 

I'm a vig, which explains why I thought there were double roles (but Kaylee turned out to have lied about her role). Which is also why I did not give a good reason for why I thought there could easily be double roles before.

 

I voted wombat because he's (day 1 and 2) been WAY too certain of my innocence to be so himself, as I have been stating since quite early. His vote today only confirms me in this, since he now has to distance himself from me because I WILL turn out to be town. Also, he's been very active yesterday during my absence, taking advantage of it to get everyone to think everyone agrees on my scummyness, which it ain't.

 

Any more questions?

 

You're a vig, so that's why you floated the duplicate roles theory after Kaylee had died and revealed herself to be a lying SK?  That's crap.

[dapianoplay3r]

Thorum you seem very worried about being at L-2 and very eager to cover your arse with a LD

 

Anyway it's a claim, and a viable one (I believe Lancelot is on the TV show right?)

For now I'm content to look elsewhere unvote

 

Btw I'm always online, I leave my ipad logged in constantly. But love how you just expect me to appear to unvote you instantly and call me out cos I didn't

 

Now back to my QI ep then bed

 

Also I will be away tomorrow, and 50/50 not that active all week depending

Can't really say much but friend in RL got some pretty big shit right now

[dapianoplay3r]

Actually wombat that was very tidy and well pointed out

 

Thank you

 

vote thorum

 

I replace my vote

 

Doesn't add up bro

[dapianoplay3r]

Now QI

[WWWwombat]

Hallia: who are you and who did you target?

 

Just so I remember we still haven't gotten an answer to that: Hallia

 

For all clarity: I'll unvote as soon as we get her answer (well, unless she claims to be who I am).

 

 

Can someone reread Kaylee's posts. Mainly with two questions in mind:

- why did she claim vig instead of serial killer? I got the impression everyone read that claim as her having only one shot, while a serial killer obviously has a series of shots.

- who tried to strengthen her train without seeming to do so? This could have been a good tactic for mafia. 

 

OMFG is this for real?  Could Thorum actually believe the crap he's posting?

[WWWwombat]

Official Vote Count

 

Mish (2/11): Darthe, peace

Kaylee (4/11): Thorum, Womby, Player, Hallia

Basel (3/11): Razen, Kraka, Tiink

Thorum (1/11): Mish

Wombat (1/11): TG

Hallia (6/11): Kaylee, Despo, Bob, Chuckles, Basel, Rhea

 

 

Not voting (2/20): Tigraine and alannalynn.

 

Deadline!!! Monday 20:00 EST http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20130610T20&p0=263&fg2=9acd79&msg=Merlin+Mafia+Day+1

 

 

Did anyone notice that deadline is in 20 hours?  God I am f888ing sucking.  Sorry all, I may need to replace if I can't be active enough.  I've never done that before.

 

 

This is brief, but I really hate how Hally says soft things to the effect of "You'll really dislike it if you lynch me" and then goes back to being jokey.  If you need examples, read this page.  Post 312 and 316.  

In addition she is the closest to lynch and we have under a day.  Vote Hallia.

 

If you are worth derailing the day then you should reveal as soon as you get online.  

 

 

I tried to refrain from fully claiming, but that didn't work. =/ I'm cop.

 

Thorum apparently didn't find Hallia suspicious enough to vote until she claimed cop...

[WWWwombat]

Although Thorum's weird demand for a character claim does appear to be his first post since the train on Hallia started...

 

I don't get Thorum's thought process here at all if he's town.  The only reason I'm considering it even remotely plausible is because it's Thorum and he does weird stuff a lot.

[WWWwombat]

Also, judging from his actions today, I would say that Vambram is scum with a poorly executed bus vote on Thorum.  He tried to subtly discredit Hallia earlier in the day (and possibly indirectly defend Thorum) but as soon as he drew heat for it, he clammed up, yielding to experience, and voted Thorum.

[WWWwombat]

Darthe, my recent interaction here was nothing more than myself offering up some speculation which I posted to see what the old vets of the game would say about said speculation. 

 

 

Where is Thorum? Probably enjoying family time over the weekend. However, if I add my vote to his train, he is still at least two more votes away from being lynched. Also, I am finding his interactions with Wombat to be suspicious. Therefore;.....

 

VOTE Thorum

 

Vambram abandoning the Hallia != cop line and voting Thorum (also mentions Thorum's interactions with me as being suspicious).

 

 

And, Vambram, logic is WAY more important than experience in mafia. See my rant on some stupid believes during day one. Linguistic skills are even more important, which is why I always get lynched day 2-3-4.

 

I am a one-shot vig. I'm not gonna say whether I already used it and/or on who, since mafia is also listening.

 

Vambram: FoS. Voting for me "because a lynch would need two more votes"? Had two mafia beeen online, this vote would have made it very easy. Or you are mafia, and have urged your companions to vote quickly, before I claimed Lancelot (which would have been the wrong character to claim had I been lying, as with Hallia).

 

Where is Hallia, btw? Now we HAVE a confirmed innocent, she's not actually letting us use that :(

 

Vambram's vote actually put Thorum at L - 4 by my count.  Also, L - 2 isn't that dangerous.  This looks like mutual distancing to me.

 

I'm pretty sold on either Thorum or Vambram today.

[hazelkrs1]

Just caught up really quick. Darthe is scum.

 

Unvote, Vote Darthe (can't remember if I had a vote.

 

He's spouting complete drivel and trying to wrap it up in fancy words to make it seem like he's actually saying something useful. Gaming the mod to try and say there could be a backup SK instead of a 5th scum? Yeah that's about as scummy as you can get. And that older player/newer player pool "theory" is complete crap. Random.org doesn't consult player's experience levels before choosing roles and alignments, and saying you'd look at newer players while "someone else" looks at older players just reeks of trying to setup a teammate later on down the road to case someone specific.

 

As for other stuff, Wombat's theory was def a bit far-fetched, but possible I suppose (Thorum's character claimfishing was bizarre and unnecessary). However. Why in the WORLD would everyone let him get away with then asking for Thorum's character? Its like he set himself up to look scummy because of his own crazy theory. If Thorum was mafia, he'd be more worried about giving you his character name because it would obv be scum than he would worry about someone using it to hurt him. Logic fail there, chief.

 

One of Razen's last posts actually makes me feel better bout him. I also didn't like all the backup SK talk, was stupid and distracting.

 

Could also lynch Tigs today, she looks scummy to me and has laid low today, and her admitted lurking playstyle is a hindrance to town.

[WWWwombat]

And in no way should my casing of Thorum be considered a soft-counter.  I just find him extremely suspicious.

[WWWwombat]

Just caught up really quick. Darthe is scum.

 

Unvote, Vote Darthe (can't remember if I had a vote.

 

He's spouting complete drivel and trying to wrap it up in fancy words to make it seem like he's actually saying something useful. Gaming the mod to try and say there could be a backup SK instead of a 5th scum? Yeah that's about as scummy as you can get. And that older player/newer player pool "theory" is complete crap. Random.org doesn't consult player's experience levels before choosing roles and alignments, and saying you'd look at newer players while "someone else" looks at older players just reeks of trying to setup a teammate later on down the road to case someone specific.

 

As for other stuff, Wombat's theory was def a bit far-fetched, but possible I suppose (Thorum's character claimfishing was bizarre and unnecessary). However. Why in the WORLD would everyone let him get away with then asking for Thorum's character? Its like he set himself up to look scummy because of his own crazy theory. If Thorum was mafia, he'd be more worried about giving you his character name because it would obv be scum than he would worry about someone using it to hurt him. Logic fail there, chief.

 

One of Razen's last posts actually makes me feel better bout him. I also didn't like all the backup SK talk, was stupid and distracting.

 

Could also lynch Tigs today, she looks scummy to me and has laid low today, and her admitted lurking playstyle is a hindrance to town.

 

ROFL

[WWWwombat]

I'd forgotten how fun scum turkey shoots were.

 

Anyone who pushes my original case as plausible without voting Thorum (like Des just did) needs a lynch or a CT scan. I think someone else may have done it earlier too, but Des' post is a masterpiece in scummitude.

[hazelkrs1]

Also, hate to have to say this yet again, but once again Darthe you're completely misusing and misexplaining Occam's Razor.

 

The ACTUAL principle states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. The whole "all things being equal, the simplest explanation tends to be the right one" is really just a cutesy memorable sounding quote which actually misses the mark. It has nothing to do with what is RIGHT, it has to do with what is practical.

 

If you're testing a hypothesis, the less assumptions you're dealing with the better, because that is less variables that are unaccounted for that could possibly taint the findings. If you're trying to validate a hypothesis that has an inordinate amount of assumptions, you are somewhat doomed from the start since so much of your theory hangs on unproven notions.

 

Thus, there is no Clintonian debate about what constitutes the "simplest" explanation, it is simply whichever one literally has less assumptions.

 

And to reiterate, it has no bearing on what hypothesis would actually end up being true. There are countless phenomena in this world that used to be explained with a "simple" explanation, when the actual process turned out to be incredibly complex.

 

Basically, if you're getting your definition of a logical principle like Occam's Razor from a Matthew McConaghey quote in the movie Contact, you're doing it wrong.

[WWWwombat]

There's your "strong guiding hand" Darthe.

[WWWwombat]

Also, hate to have to say this yet again, but once again Darthe you're completely misusing and misexplaining Occam's Razor.

 

The ACTUAL principle states that among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. The whole "all things being equal, the simplest explanation tends to be the right one" is really just a cutesy memorable sounding quote which actually misses the mark. It has nothing to do with what is RIGHT, it has to do with what is practical.

 

If you're testing a hypothesis, the less assumptions you're dealing with the better, because that is less variables that are unaccounted for that could possibly taint the findings. If you're trying to validate a hypothesis that has an inordinate amount of assumptions, you are somewhat doomed from the start since so much of your theory hangs on unproven notions.

 

Thus, there is no Clintonian debate about what constitutes the "simplest" explanation, it is simply whichever one literally has less assumptions.

 

And to reiterate, it has no bearing on what hypothesis would actually end up being true. There are countless phenomena in this world that used to be explained with a "simple" explanation, when the actual process turned out to be incredibly complex.

 

Basically, if you're getting your definition of a logical principle like Occam's Razor from a Matthew McConaghey quote in the movie Contact, you're doing it wrong.

That quote isn't bad imo. Technically, your definition of parsimony is accurate, but also incomplete. The magnitude of an assumption is also important. It's better to have five reasonable assumptions than one obviously false one.