does anyone keep track of their own theories and outcomes?

[joeron bigelow]

Has anyone actually kept track of all their own predictions and looney theories from Eye of the World to now - and can say...'hey guys i got 77% of my WoT theories correct. I'm da man!!!"

 

As the last book with all the answers approaches, does anyone think they are 100% correct in their own personal theory count?

 

Anyone at 0% correct?

 

I find myself running about 70%, but most my own personal theories have to wait for the final book...hopefully they are answered there.

[Terez]

It's hard to judge because some of our theories are loony and some of them are more serious. So you'd have to keep track of things like, well I think this one has a 50% chance of being true, and this one has an 85% chance, and no one does that. Someone tried it before TOM with assigning odds and whatnot but I didn't like the odds system so I didn't do it. Also, some theories turn out to be part-true.

[Suttree]

Whoa Terez...was expecting you to go dark on us!

[Terez]

I kind of am. Reading at the computer for now...

[herid]

Has anyone actually kept track of all their own predictions and looney theories from Eye of the World to now - and can say...'hey guys i got 77% of my WoT theories correct. I'm da man!!!" As the last book with all the answers approaches, does anyone think they are 100% correct in their own personal theory count? Anyone at 0% correct? I find myself running about 70%, but most my own personal theories have to wait for the final book...hopefully they are answered there.

 

why don't you post your theories in the AMOL prediction thread? If you'll have 70% accuracy rate on those you'll definitely have a right to boast.

[FarShainMael]

I certainly keep track of mine, but I would be astonished if I'm anywhere close on most of them!

 

What really worries me is that one of my entries in the 'crazy theory' thread has an echo in one of the Memories..........       

[Viperswhip]

Kind, of, I have been right about 20% of the time.

[msbee]

Have to admit to keeping notes, not so much major theories, though I have a pet two or three.

I mainly keep track of odd or interesting things I've noted along the way.

The main aid in  keeping track is my timeline, I have  a visual memory so even while some people tell me its too confusing to follow, I find it gives me near instant reference to a lot of theories.

I suppose I do have quite a few minor sub-plot theories, nothing to post about as such, and, no idea what my success rate is yet -  95% of them will only get resolved in AMOL.

 

 

[Balefire to da face!]

Much more so nowadays.

 

I remember very little about my first read through, though.

 

I am reading Leigh's WoT reread comments concurrently with my current reread, and realize that it was so long ago, that I no longer even really remember when I realized huge plot points like when i figured out Ba'alzamon was Ishy. I never even really theorized at all until I started visiting DM in about 2000.

 

Even now, any of my predictions are pretty much immortalized here on DM. I always mean to keep notes on interesting tidbits, but never seem to want to bother when I'm actually reading. I've noticed something in LoC that is an interesting connection to one of Terez's theories, but haven't bothered to post it yet. Kind of curious to see how it'll turn out.

[Terez]

What was that?

[Balefire to da face!]

What was that?

 

 

Well, I've been noticing that LoC is somewhat unique in how many foreshadowings it has of the "quirky, random quote" variety. Meaning, predicting future occurances not with viewings or dreams, but just characters saying random stuff.

 

The one about Nyn healing someone three days dead is one. Well known, but not confirmed.

 

Then there is the one about Theo drowning Nyn to break the block(or something of the like). Pretty blantantly obvious after the fact.

 

Talmanes and the boys asking Mat if he had ever thought of being a warder. Not as obvious as the first two, but still might happen with Fortuona.

 

There are a few others, like the ones in your sig. I really should have kept notes as I went through, but I think most of them are well known, if not collected and noticed as being significant in that they all happen in the same book. I know others have a prediction or two such as this, but they seem to have run wild in LoC.

 

As for the one that I think might apply to one of your theories, the Twice Dawning Day with Moi balefiring Rand. I had another thread about Moi where I agreed she would kill Rand, but not in that method. I am becoming more convinced that just might happen. From LoC, Chapter 7, a Matter of Thought, Elayne considering rumors....

 

 

Aes Sedai involvement in Tarabon was not the only rumor that had found its way to Elaida's writing table. Pedron Niall's ingathering of the Whitecloaks was rumored to have as its goal everything from seizing the throne of Amadicia— which he certainly had no need of— to crushing the wars and anarchy in Tarabon and Arad Doman, to supporting Rand. Elayne would believe that when the sun rose in the west.

 

Whitecloaks supporting Rand?! Yeah, right! Oh, wait.....

 

I am not exactly clear on the physical outcome of Rand being balefired so strongly, but if it actually caused the earth to rotate backwards, and the sun had set on that day, then the sun would actually appear to rise in the west.

 

Edit: Whoops, forgot this one.I don't like this one as much since the setup hasn't been shown to happen, but it would fit with the above, also in LoC. Chapter 9 Plans.....

 

 

of course; getting a human into an Ogier Stump was as impossible as getting an Ogier to spy. Easier to have the sun rise at night.

 

[herid]

 

 

What was that?

 

 

Well, I've been noticing that LoC is somewhat unique in how many foreshadowings it has of the "quirky, random quote" variety. Meaning, predicting future occurances not with viewings or dreams, but just characters saying random stuff.

 

 

 

that's not really special to LoC. there are similar foreshadowings in other books.

 

 

The one about Nyn healing someone three days dead is one. Well known, but not confirmed.

 

Then there is the one about Theo drowning Nyn to break the block(or something of the like). Pretty blantantly obvious after the fact.

 

Talmanes and the boys asking Mat if he had ever thought of being a warder. Not as obvious as the first two, but still might happen with Fortuona.

 

These are good ones. I noticed them before too. The one about Ny's block also mentions her flying btw. Don't know if we'll see that. kind of doubt it.

 

 

There are a few others, like the ones in your sig. I really should have kept notes as I went through, but I think most of them are well known, if not collected and noticed as being significant in that they all happen in the same book. I know others have a prediction or two such as this, but they seem to have run wild in LoC.

 

As for the one that I think might apply to one of your theories, the Twice Dawning Day with Moi balefiring Rand. I had another thread about Moi where I agreed she would kill Rand, but not in that method. I am becoming more convinced that just might happen. From LoC, Chapter 7, a Matter of Thought, Elayne considering rumors....

 

 

 

Aes Sedai involvement in Tarabon was not the only rumor that had found its way to Elaida's writing table. Pedron Niall's ingathering of the Whitecloaks was rumored to have as its goal everything from seizing the throne of Amadicia— which he certainly had no need of— to crushing the wars and anarchy in Tarabon and Arad Doman, to supporting Rand. Elayne would believe that when the sun rose in the west.

 

Whitecloaks supporting Rand?! Yeah, right! Oh, wait.....

 

I am not exactly clear on the physical outcome of Rand being balefired so strongly, but if it actually caused the earth to rotate backwards, and the sun had set on that day, then the sun would actually appear to rise in the west.

 

 

 

 

You are right. This does follow the same foreshadowing pattern. I really hope it isn't one though. Reversing the direction of Earth's rotation is such a physically impossible thing that I don't believe RJ would ever emply it. He used to be a physicist after all. But balefiring Rand would not lead to it. It does not reverse time direction or anything like that.

 

 

Edit: Whoops, forgot this one.I don't like this one as much since the setup hasn't been shown to happen, but it would fit with the above, also in LoC. Chapter 9 Plans.....

 

 

 

of course; getting a human into an Ogier Stump was as impossible as getting an Ogier to spy. Easier to have the sun rise at night.

 

 

 

 

This does look like a possible foreshadowing too. We'll see.

[Terez]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again one last time (because I haven't gotten that far in the book yet). The earth's rotation ≠ time. It is a way to measure time, but only because it's normally dependable.

[Balefire to da face!]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again one last time (because I haven't gotten that far in the book yet). The earth's rotation ≠ time. It is a way to measure time, but only because it's normally dependable.

 

 

Yeah, I agree with that completely.

 

My problem with the quotes is mainly that effects from balefire have always appeared to be instantaneous. Like, we don't see anything rewinding onscreen from balefire.

 

I figure if I am right about those quotes being foreshadowing, it could either be that the earth's rotation is such a huge mechanism it would be like seeing something in macro as opposed to micro(like how a comet impact would appear to go in relative slow motion from a distance just because of the area it has to cover, when the shock wave is actually incredibly fast).

 

Or it could be that Rand and the earth are connected in such a way that balefiring him would effect the earth like an extended body part that would react to the body being burned from existence.

 

Just some possibilities.

 

Edit: Sorry to the opening post, I realize I have completely taken the thread off topic.

[herid]

 

 

I've said it before, and I'll say it again one last time (because I haven't gotten that far in the book yet). The earth's rotation ≠ time. It is a way to measure time, but only because it's normally dependable.

 

 

Yeah, I agree with that completely.

 

My problem with the quotes is mainly that effects from balefire have always appeared to be instantaneous. Like, we don't see anything rewinding onscreen from balefire.

 

 

 

exactly. and there is no rewinding. the change is instantaneous and nobody relieves anything in reverse. They only live it once. that's why balefiring Rand would not lead to anybody perceiving the earth rotating in the opposite direction.

I don't think Rand will be balefired anyway. There is the following quote by BS

 

 

 

Interview: Nov 16th, 2009

TGS Signing Report - kcf (Paraphrased)

 

 

  Brandon Sanderson

 

It was also mentioned that balefire does not mean that someone can't be reborn into the Pattern.

I was very surprised by this and hadn't heard it before, but apparently Brandon has said it in previous Q&As.

Brandon said he was also surprised but that Maria was very insistent about this—so if the Dragon Reborn was balefired, he could still be reborn.

 

 

 

If Rand was going to be balefired this would be in the notes and BS would have no misconceptions about the issue.

[bigdoug1971]

I do keep track of mine.  I have a little notebook where I write down what I think will happen.  It's hard to find something to do with all the waiting.  I also write down theories that I think are really good.  I dismiss the crazy ones.  I also keep track of the ones I disagree with or if I really hope it never happens if it sounds plausible.  (Body swap anyone)?