A Hypothesis on Aes Sedai Culture and Numbers

[MrJade]

A Compiled Hypothesis on the Numbers and Society of Aes Sedai

 

There used to be more Aes Sedai than there are in the current time. Certainly early in the Third Age, there were more Aes Sedai than there are now, but how many? Why did their numbers decline? Why are the Aes Sedai acting as they are?

 

Number of Aes Sedai

We have two different sources for the number of Aes Sedai. NS, Ch3 says there are 423 Aes Sedai in the Tower, with twice as many out in the world, meaning ~1,200. LoC, Ch7 gives us 294 Aes Sedai loyal to the Tower, and slightly more in the Rebel Camp, and the Loyalists are nearly one-third the total Aes Sedai. Loc, Ch37 also states that there are less than 1,000 Aes Sedai in the world. While this seems like a discrepancy, or a massive die-off, it could easily be neither. Moiraine could have easily been rounding up to “twice as many” rather than “one and a half, less 70”, alternatively, she could have been wrong.

Either way, it points to a total number of Aes Sedai at ~1,000. But how many were there back earlier in the Third Age? For this, we must resort to guessing. I have used three separate methods for estimating the total number. Each of these three estimation methods use a number of assumptions to build up to the estimate, and therefore each is only a guess, even if an educated one. That being said, each method has strengths to it, elsewise it is no better than a blind guess. As such, I will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each method.

 

Method 1: Tower Rooms and Ratios

The White Tower was built to house 3,000 Aes Sedai. (NS, Ch3) Again, going back to Moiraine in the same chapter, we have a ratio of two Aes Sedai out of the Tower per every one inside it. However, as stated earlier the number was most likely around 1,000, meaning that the ratio is more likely 2:5 rather than 1:2 (as stated by Moiraine) Aes Sedai in the Tower to Aes Sedai out of it. With this ratio of 2:5, and a total number of 3,000 Aes Sedai rooms, we can say that there was about 10,500 Aes Sedai. (2:5 with 3,000 rooms mean 3,000 Aes Sedai in the Tower, and 7,500 out of it.) This method relies on what I believe to be the weakest assumptions, namely that the Tower was full of Aes Sedai at a given point in Time and that the ratio has not changed. However, we know for a fact that it was not until Artur Hawkwing that Aes Sedai were disdained, and in fact that prior to the Trolloc Wars and the War of the Hundred Years there were Aes Sedai queens, something that does not happen in the current time. It was during the Siege of Tar Valon by Artur Hawkwing when Bonwhin recalled the Aes Sedai to the White Tower. Ever since then, Aes Sedai have not been as trusted as they were before.

It seems logical then, that the number of Aes Sedai out of the Tower should have been higher before Hawkwing, when the mass populace was more trusting. This would of course, change the ratio and therefore change the number calculated.

 

Method 2: Novices, Accepted, and Aes Sedai

A more trustworthy method is to use the number of Accepted and Novices to predict the number of Aes Sedai. There are 40 Novices in the Tower (TGH, Ch14). Multiple Aes Sedai, questioning Egewene’s decision to open the Novice book to older than normal novices noted that they will certainly not lower the minimum power required to join the Aes Sedai. If this is true, and it seems like it is, if the Aes Sedai were willing to lower their standards to inflate their numbers, now seems like the time to do it, but they are not, then we can use this to make another ratio. With ~1,000 Aes Sedai and 40 Novices, we have a 25:1 Aes Sedai to Novice ratio. This is not enough however, as we must know how many of these Novices will be raised to the Shawl. Of those 40 Novices, 9 or 10 will be raised to Accepted, and unless they balk at the Test for the Shawl, they will become Aes Sedai. So let us assume the lower number of 9 for the total number, so we can add to the ratio the fact that only 22.5% will become Aes Sedai. Now all we have know is how long a Novice will spend in the Tower before becoming an Aes Sedai. (We are ignoring the Accepted step, as for our purposes it is no different than Novices, as both are trained in the Tower and not yet Sisters.) Moiraine was raised to the Shawl after only 6 years, a number that is considered short. (LoC, Glossary) Even if we expand this number out to 15 years for a full generation of Novices (the time it would take for all the current Novices/Accepted to have either been made Sisters or to have been sent out of the Tower) and ~300 years for an Aes Sedai’s life (NS, Ch17), we have 20 generations per Aes Sedai life. We also know there are nearly or more than 1,100 Novices at the end of tGS, with nearly 1,000 with the Rebels and over 100 with the Tower Loyalists. (CoT, Ch16 and KoD, Ch24) RJ was also quoted as saying that only 1% of the population could channel at time of the books, but that it was higher, to 3% earlier. If we take these numbers, that means that there was a possible pool of 3,300 Novices, and with a 25:1 ratio and the 22.5% raising rate, we have 18,562.5 Aes Sedai. (I hope we don’t have .5 of an Aes Sedai.)

While this method is heavier on the math, it is much more logical. If the Tower does not change its standards for strength in the One Power, our 22.5% rate should hold steady, and we have directly compared the number of Aes Sedai to Novices at a point in time, meaning that this method should yield considerably closer numbers. However, we know that the population of the Westlands has been decreasing, and if this is true, we could have considerably more Aes Sedai than we are stating here, simply due to the fact that our pool of possible Novices would increase with the increased population. However, since we have no idea of what the ratio of current population to earlier population is, I will refuse to speculate and leave the figure at ~18,500 Aes Sedai.

 

Method 3: Double Bedding and the Wells

At one point, Novices and Accepted were double bedded. We also know the number of novice rooms is ~400. (NS, Ch3) Again, going back to the figure of ~1,000 Aes Sedai in the world, we again arrive at the Aes Sedai to Novice ratio of 25:1. With that, we can say that there was ~800 Novices at the height, and therefore ~20,000 Aes Sedai.

This method is much lighter on the math, and also uses a known number of Novices. This is also better than the previous method simply because we do not know if 1,100 Novices is unusually large and a disproportionate amount of women. With this method, we have known quantities across the board. It has all the strength of the second method, and in fact eliminates a weakness of the second method.

 

Conclusion:

It seems that the Aes Sedai would have numbered at least 20,000, and most likely more, possibly two or three times as many. While these numbers may seem high, keep in mind that the Westlands population is most certainly in the tens of millions, and was higher in the past.

 

 

The Number of Aes Sedai and the Decline

Therefore, it seems that the number of Aes Sedai at the height of the Tower was in fact 20,000 or more. Why then did the numbers shrink? Why are there less Aes Sedai at the current time?

 

The second reason is more insidious. Following Hawkwings attack the anger and fear the general populace felt for the Aes Sedai increased massively. This disfavour amongst the people continued, spouting misinformation where it went. We see the formation of the Children of the Light in this time, and the increased belief that Aes Sedai are darkfriend who broke the world for the Dark One (and it is increased, we know the people of the past had a much greater degree of knowledge about the nature of Aes Sedai and their intentions for the world, even when these people didn't trust Aes Sedai).

 

This change in the social perception of the Aes Sedai probably has alot to do with the way Aes Sedai currently hold themselves aloof from the general populace, which in turn likely spread the misinformation. As this increasingly bad opinion spread, naturally less girls sought the Tower. Effectively, the Tower continued on under its old method of letting girls approach, and when they didn't in as great a numbers the Tower concluded that the ability must be declining, when in fact it was simply that the girls desire to approach the Tower had declined. That, combined with the general decline in the westland population resulted in the marked decline witnessed in the Tower.

This seems like the likely culprit, as these Oaths do seem to be doing the opposite of what they were intended to do. Luckers goes on to say,

 

 

This training methodology is highly effective as a form of indoctrination. By the time the women gain the shawl they are simple facsimilies of the concept of what it is to be Aes Sedai. They are so overawed by their own image that they simply cannot act—any action which is not a reflex built into them during their training would be to question the perfection of their image of being an Aes Sedai—which in turn would be questioning their very sense of identity.

 

This is why there is no innovation amongst the average Aes Sedai, and no attempts to go against the status quo no matter how pressing the need. To do so would be to question a sense of self that has been so heavily drilled into them that it permeates every part of their personality. Some few, like Verin or Cadsuane, are strong enough in themselves that when they’ve encountered a situation that requires action not trained into them have broken through their indoctrination and adapted—more often though the Aes Sedai simply breaks, like Merilille with the atha’an miere.

 

This (combined with the point i will raise next) is the source of most of the modern Aes Sedai's childish behaviour. Comments such as 'there is truth that would burn any mind but an Aes Sedai's' and 'Thrones have fallen messing in the plans of the tower' are thrown around so often not as simple methods of persuasion, but because the Aes Sedai themselves are overawed by their own image. Their constant attempts to control every situation they are in stems not because they think themselves capable, but because they feel that as Aes Sedai they should be.

 

They are, for lack of a better phrase, victims of their own PR regiment.

As such, Aes Sedai refuse to innovate and to change, and so are stuck in a mindset that has not changed in nearly 3,000 years, even while the world does. As stated earlier, before Hawkwing, Aes Sedai were widely accepted and trusted, it was not until Bonwhin’s blunder that the Aes Sedai fell. Luckers criticizes the Aes Sedai and the Ajah by stating they do not uphold their own self-proclaimed duties, and he wonders why the Greens do not patrol the Borderlands, and why the Yellows do not have clinics in major towns.

I believe I know why. We know that before the Trolloc Wars, no king or queen ascended to the throne with Aes Sedai approval, but this changed after the Trolloc Wars. The Aes Sedai had lost face after this war. Why did they? Simply put, because they did not expect it. After the War of Power, the world settled into a time of peace and prosperity. The Compact of the Ten Nations made the Westlands safe and prosperous, and the Aes Sedai were trusted and not yet Oath bound. (TGH, Ch23) In the BWB, it was also stated that the Trolloc Wars started just as a series of stronger than usual Blightborder raids. It seems that the Aes Sedai had been lulled into a false sense of security during the 1,000 years following the Breaking, and when the Trolloc Wars reared their ugly head, the Aes Sedai were unprepared. The Green Ajah had most likely atrophied, as during the Compact the Blight was secure and the nations did not war on any large scale. After the Wars were over, the resulting nations would have become more distrustful of the Aes Sedai, openly questioning them and their lack of protection.

Despite this, the Tower was still strong and many girls still came to the Tower to train. However, after Hawkwing the Aes Sedai went from trusted to suspected Darkfriends (or even openly Darkfriends according to the Children of the Light). Now, girls no longer travelled to the Tower for training in the numbers that they used to. Couple this with the smaller amount of channelers, and you can see the problem. The Tower might have even had to turn down more people than it did previously as the number of people who could learn or who were born with the spark declined.

As the Aes Sedai were more and more distrusted, they would have turned from the world and retreated to the Tower, which would have cause more distrust, as nothing causes more fear than the lack of understanding. This could quickly turn to a positive reinforcement feedback loop leading to the Aes Sedai abandoning most of their activities in the world.

Simply put, most people had the attitude of Mat Cauthon and would refuse healing from the Yellow Ajah. Most people would not want Greens patrolling the Blight. Most people do not want the Aes Sedai involved until it is a problem they cannot handle alone. It took the Aiel to force the world to band together and draw the Aes Sedai out of Tar Valon. It took a foe that could crush the Westlands to unite it, and even then, the world promptly went back to status quo antebellum.

Why then would Aes Sedai openly proclaim themselves as such and open a clinic in a town? It would be illegal in Tear, and everywhere else no one would trust the Aes Sedai not to force them into a deal they would not want.

This could very easily explain their lack of involvement in the world at large; the arrogance of the Aes Sedai, the distrust and lack of knowledge by the common person, and the bumblings of foolish Amyrlin Seats like Bonwhin. No matter what the Aes Sedai want, now, by tradition and simple pragmaticism, they cannot openly intervene in the world and are forced to manipulate to achieve their ends, which ironically only hurts their image more. They are left with no good options, and they refuse to try to make more options due to their ultra-unchanging mindset. In the past, their sheer numbers would have made contact with Aes Sedai much more commonplace, but in the current setting, the lower number of Aes Sedai, the instinctive distrust of the them, and their own attitudes are a perfect breeding ground for the extinction of the Aes Sedai.

 

Final Analysis:

There were many more Aes Sedai in the past than now, logically 20,000 or more compared to the current 1,000. The Aes Sedai must abandon their oaths, they must be valuable at the Last Battle, and they must reform their image if they have any hope of turning around.

 

Let me also say that I am NOT disregarding what anyone in here says. I debate recreationally, and as such I am simply arguing my point. I am not attempting to be a jerk, nor am I attempting to agitate anyone.

[Wool-headed lummox]

The White Tower was built to house 3,000 Aes Sedai. (NS, Ch3) Again, going back to Moiraine in the same chapter, we have a ratio of two Aes Sedai out of the Tower per every one inside it. However, as stated earlier the number was most likely around 1,000, meaning that the ratio is more likely 2:5 rather than 1:2 (as stated by Moiraine) Aes Sedai in the Tower to Aes Sedai out of it. With this ratio of 2:5, and a total number of 3,000 Aes Sedai rooms, we can say that there was about 10,500 Aes Sedai. (2:5 with 3,000 rooms mean 3,000 Aes Sedai in the Tower, and 7,500 out of it.)

I'm pretty sure an Aes Sedai gets to keep her room permanently even if she's out of the Tower for a long time. Meaning that the total number of Aes Sedai was expected to reach 3000, with two thirds of that number out of the Tower at any given time, their chambers unused and waiting their return.

[muddasssir]

it is hard to say but i agree with WHL

[Amandera]

There seems little doubt that the Aes Sedai intended their number to grow,

since the Tower and its related buildings were far larger than needed at the time,

with living and working quarters for many more Aes Sedai than there have been—

even now—at any one time since the Breaking.

Yep, there has been at most 3000 Aes Sedai at any given time in the 3rd Age.

[Morden]

Thats assuming that those from wealthy houses felt like they had to stay at the Tower, the queens and other high ranking nobles probably wouldnt feel the need to have a room held for them that they might use for a few weeks every decade.

 

I doubt there were as many as 20'000, but judging from the numbers in the kin, sea folk, aiel. I reckon 10k is probably closer to the maximum and thats still quite high.

 

The Aiel have well over 2k channelers as they round up everyone who has the spark, perhaps 2-300 of them is of the threshold of an Aes Sedai minimum. The Aiel population is a lot smaller than the wetlands however. so while there could be tens of thousands of women who could channel, not everyone would want to and not everyone would pass.

 

I agree about most of what youve said though about the changes they need to make, I was so disapointed when Egwene brought into the whole "the three oaths make an aes sedai" nonsense. If someone has to be forced to be honest, does that not mean they are inherently untrustworthy? and that leads to the whole "the words you hear an aes sedai say, may not be what you think they are."

[MrJade]

 

"There seems little doubt that the Aes Sedai intended their number to grow,

 

 

since the Tower and its related buildings were far larger than needed at the time,

with living and working quarters for many more Aes Sedai than there have been—

even now—at any one time since the Breaking.

 

 

Yep, there has been at most 3000 Aes Sedai at any given time in the 3rd Age."

 

 

The only issue with that is the fact that the BWB does in fact get things wrong (as the book is written from an in universe perspective), and while Luckers comes up with a much smaller number than what I calculated, he still states a figure of 6,000 Aes Sedai.

 

"I'm pretty sure an Aes Sedai gets to keep her room permanently even if she's out of the Tower for a long time. Meaning that the total number of Aes Sedai was expected to reach 3000, with two thirds of that number out of the Tower at any given time, their chambers unused and waiting their return."

That does seem like what occurs today, however the current time in the Third Age is not a very good representation of what the Aes Sedai were like at all times. It has been stated that the Aes Sedai knew more before the Trolloc Wars than they did before Hawkwing, and before Hawkwing they knew more than they did now. I doubt that the White Tower kept rooms for Aes Sedai who were queens, or who were governors of far-off provinces.

 

However, I do see your points, but I disagree. While I am unsure of a 20,000 strong Aes Sedai Tower, it seems likely that there were more than 3,000 Aes Sedai when 1,000 is considered such an under-strength Tower. We know they have been undergoing a loss for nearly a thousand years now, slowly losing numbers. Even if we increase the amount of channelers from 1% to 3% we have a maxed out tower, what if they get a particularly good crop for a period of twenty years? Just statistically improbable? We would have more than 3,000 Aes Sedai.

 

It certainly seems like there were more than 3,000 Aes Sedai at the height of the White Tower's power. (Hey! I rhymed!)

[Wool-headed lummox]

I doubt that the White Tower kept rooms for Aes Sedai who were queens, or who were governors of far-off provinces.

These are singular exceptions, and besides, for all we know the White Tower did keep rooms for Aes Sedai who were queens. They'd have to spend some time in the WT, and I don't think that rushing to find a spare room for an Aes Sedai would do much for their dignity.

 

Even if we increase the amount of channelers from 1% to 3% we have a maxed out tower, what if they get a particularly good crop for a period of twenty years? Just statistically improbable? We would have more than 3,000 Aes Sedai.

I doubt there were ever actually 3000 Aes Sedai, maybe 2000, maybe 2500. The Tower was built with a 3000 upper cap, but it may not have been filled out at any point in time.

 

it seems likely that there were more than 3,000 Aes Sedai when 1,000 is considered such an under-strength Tower

Is it, really? I've heard complaints that there are too few novices and Accepted in the Tower, but I don't remember any of the characters complaining that there are too few Aes Sedai.

[MrJade]

Cadsuane in NS remarks on Moiraine and her apparent strength and the lack of channelers. Other Aes Sedai (Verin or Suian I feel) have stated that there are significantly less channelers than there was formerly. And a lack of Novices and Accepted directly correlates to a lack of Aes Sedai. We have certainly been told that the lack of Novices in not a new problem, but has been systematic since no later than the War of the Hundred Years.

 

Let me also say that I am NOT disregarding what anyone in here says. I debate recreationally, and as such I am simply arguing my point. I am not attempting to be a jerk, nor am I attempting to agitate anyone. That being said, I do think that there were more than 3,000 Aes Sedai.

[Delmandred]

Registered to post, I always wondered how many Aes Sedai there were in the Age of Legends, but I'm convinced after seeing this that there were a lot. But why would the White Tower build the Tower so small if they knew there could be a ton of Aes Sedai?

[Luckers]

Registered to post, I always wondered how many Aes Sedai there were in the Age of Legends, but I'm convinced after seeing this that there were a lot. But why would the White Tower build the Tower so small if they knew there could be a ton of Aes Sedai?

 

In the Age of Legends 3% of the population could channel, they conducted systematic tests for the ability at the Age of ten, and pretty much any who passed were taken and trained as Aes Sedai (people could refuse training, but it was virtually unheard of).

 

From there, even with a highly conservative population estimate there would have been hundreds of thousands, and more probably millions of Aes Sedai.

[Delmandred]

 

Registered to post, I always wondered how many Aes Sedai there were in the Age of Legends, but I'm convinced after seeing this that there were a lot. But why would the White Tower build the Tower so small if they knew there could be a ton of Aes Sedai?

 

In the Age of Legends 3% of the population could channel, they conducted systematic tests for the ability at the Age of ten, and pretty much any who passed were taken and trained as Aes Sedai (people could refuse training, but it was virtually unheard of).

 

From there, even with a highly conservative population estimate there would have been hundreds of thousands, and more probably millions of Aes Sedai.

 

 

That being said, it seems like there is no way that before the Trolloc Wars there wasn't tens of thousands of Aes Sedai. Also, remember, before the Trolloc Wars the Aes Sedai weren't bound by the three oaths. So I think that MrJade is correct, or even low. There is no way to think that there was anything less than the numbers he proposes.

[Luckers]

 

 

Registered to post, I always wondered how many Aes Sedai there were in the Age of Legends, but I'm convinced after seeing this that there were a lot. But why would the White Tower build the Tower so small if they knew there could be a ton of Aes Sedai?

 

In the Age of Legends 3% of the population could channel, they conducted systematic tests for the ability at the Age of ten, and pretty much any who passed were taken and trained as Aes Sedai (people could refuse training, but it was virtually unheard of).

 

From there, even with a highly conservative population estimate there would have been hundreds of thousands, and more probably millions of Aes Sedai.

 

 

That being said, it seems like there is no way that before the Trolloc Wars there wasn't tens of thousands of Aes Sedai. Also, remember, before the Trolloc Wars the Aes Sedai weren't bound by the three oaths. So I think that MrJade is correct, or even low. There is no way to think that there was anything less than the numbers he proposes.

 

 

 

Actually Aes Sedai numbers make perfect sense. Remember, AoL numbers are only so high because they systematically tested their entire population for the ability. Even without the 3% to 1% decline of the number of channelers in the modern Age we would see nothing like their numbers, because the limiting factor on the number of Aes Sedai and active learners has nothing to do with the potential number of channelers in the population, but everything to do with the Aes Sedai policies toward recruitment.

 

Remember, they actively resist even casual testing. The girl must approach them--and, given Aes Sedai are relatively rare and the chances of encountering one casually during the acceptance period of 12-18 would be pretty slim except for the nobles and royalty, that means for the most part the Aes Sedai stem only from the pool of girls that travel to the Tower.

 

Consider all the things against that. From it simply not occuring to girls that they might be able to channel like Nynaeve and Egwene added to the societal fears and misperceptions about what Aes Sedai actually are. How many girls in that age bracket are going to leave their own lives and homes and comforts to risk the dangers of a 17th century era world on nothing but the blind chance they might be able to channel?

 

So, no I don't find the low numbers odd. Indeed, if you take the Kin, the Aes Sedai, and the Aes Sedai dead early due to the Taint then we have about 4,000 women who in the last six hundred years (i.e. channeler life span) approached the Tower and passed the test. This means that proportionally in that time around 400,000 girls have made the difficult trek to Tar Valon. Given the policies in place, added to the societal perception of Aes Sedai, and the difficulties of travel for a young girl in a world of that era, that doens't seem low at all. If anything it seems high (and indeed, it is likely skewed by sparkers and girls who met Aes Sedai in the world and requested training there).

 

The point is simple: Aes Sedai policies drastically slash the number of channelers by creating a series of artificial obstacles to channelers learning and becoming active. They narrow it so you can only succeed in learning to channel if it occurs to you to do so in a very small window of time, heap geographical distance by requiring girls show strength of self by seeking out Tar Valon on their own, limit the success of those to be bound by strength... no, the numbers don't seem low to me.

[wotfan4472]

All I have done in this series is ask what I would do if I was the DO?

 

1. Taint saidin and destroy the male Aes Sedai, whom were the Leaders in the WOP, as the female Aes Sedai almost never took part in the fighting itself: the MEN DID.

 

2. After the Breaking and the humanity settled, wait for Ishamael to be free and begin a Huge invasion to test the world's strength and keep tabs on my enemies, and cripple them.

 

3. Use my Chosen to convince the High King to lay seige to the Aes Sedai and destroy them.

 

I have always felt that Ishamael and the DO BOTH had too much info on these last two points.

 

Maybe the DO was touching the world the entire time????

[Luckers]

All I have done in this series is ask what I would do if I was the DO?

 

1. Taint saidin and destroy the male Aes Sedai, whom were the Leaders in the WOP, as the female Aes Sedai almost never took part in the fighting itself: the MEN DID.

 

This is wrong. The female Aes Sedai took equal part in the War of the Power. The only thing they refused to take part in was the sealing of the bore out of the fear that it would tear the bore wide open, and the hope that the Access Keys to the Choedan Kal could be regained and through them a less dangerous path taken. Even that was not all of the female Aes Sedai, only those who joined the Fateful Concord under Latra Posae.

 

And the male Aes Sedai were not the Leaders in the War of the Power. Lews Therin was First Amongst Servants, it's true, but many female Aes Sedai held roles of considerable authority. The next most influential in the Hall of Servants was Latra Posae Decume--a woman.

 

 

2. After the Breaking and the humanity settled, wait for Ishamael to be free and begin a Huge invasion to test the world's strength and keep tabs on my enemies, and cripple them.

 

Ishy went for a more subtle game--which does make some sense, after all play your hand three thousand years too early and all you do is give the Light time to recover before the Day of the Return. Instead the chosen path was to keep the Light weak and fractured. As Mesaana states that path had its dangers, but it also could win them everything. Let the Lord of Chaos Rule.

 

 

3. Use my Chosen to convince the High King to lay seige to the Aes Sedai and destroy them.

 

 

Ishamael did that, though of course the Aes Sedai didn't precisely help the situation.

 

 

I have always felt that Ishamael and the DO BOTH had too much info on these last two points.

 

Maybe the DO was touching the world the entire time????

 

Demandred states the Dark One's knowledge and ignorence of the world can each be surprising in their own way.

[Barid Bel Medar]

 

2. After the Breaking and the humanity settled, wait for Ishamael to be free and begin a Huge invasion to test the world's strength and keep tabs on my enemies, and cripple them.

 

Ishy went for a more subtle game--which does make some sense, after all play your hand three thousand years too early and all you do is give the Light time to recover before the Day of the Return. Instead the chosen path was to keep the Light weak and fractured. As Mesaana states that path had its dangers, but it also could win them everything. Let the Lord of Chaos Rule.

 

 

 

 

 

Ishamael did do that also - to a lesser degree - with the Trolloc Wars. But I also agree with Lord of Chaos plan, risky but very effective. 

[Luckers]

The Trolloc Wars was to break the growing strength of the Ten Nations, the same as the failed assault on Hawkwing's Empire. The success or failure of that invasion was immaterial--in fact I doubt Ishamael would have allowed the Trollocs final victory at all.

 

From the very beginning of the Third Age Ishamael and the Dark One were playing Tarmon Gai'don--which is now, not during the Trolloc Wars.

[michellem]

re: How many Aes Sedai can the Tower hold

 

LoC, Chapter 3 A Woman's Eyes:

 

 

 

The White Tower ha been buildt to house three thousand Aes Sedai all the time, and far more if their numbers had to be called in, with room for hundreds of girls in training[...]

 

This is from a Rand POV, but I guess we must assume it's Moiraine who's told him these things.

[Barid Bel Medar]

The Trolloc Wars was to break the growing strength of the Ten Nations, the same as the failed assault on Hawkwing's Empire. The success or failure of that invasion was immaterial--in fact I doubt Ishamael would have allowed the Trollocs final victory at all.

 

From the very beginning of the Third Age Ishamael and the Dark One were playing Tarmon Gai'don--which is now, not during the Trolloc Wars.

 

Yeah, I agree, I thought that was what the poster was saying. Create a massive invasion to keep society weak.

 

 

2. After the Breaking and the humanity settled, wait for Ishamael to be free and begin a Huge invasion to test the world's strength and keep tabs on my enemies, and cripple them.

 

That is exactly what Ishamael did with the Trolloc Wars and Hawkwing's manipulation. 

 

If they meant destroy them while they were weak, then I disagree and agree with your statement. 

[Delmandred]

 

The point is simple: Aes Sedai policies drastically slash the number of channelers by creating a series of artificial obstacles to channelers learning and becoming active. They narrow it so you can only succeed in learning to channel if it occurs to you to do so in a very small window of time, heap geographical distance by requiring girls show strength of self by seeking out Tar Valon on their own, limit the success of those to be bound by strength... no, the numbers don't seem low to me.

 

 

Oh, sorry, not at the current time, but I meant that the numbers suggested as the total before the Trolloc Wars other than Jade's.

[Luckers]

 

 

The point is simple: Aes Sedai policies drastically slash the number of channelers by creating a series of artificial obstacles to channelers learning and becoming active. They narrow it so you can only succeed in learning to channel if it occurs to you to do so in a very small window of time, heap geographical distance by requiring girls show strength of self by seeking out Tar Valon on their own, limit the success of those to be bound by strength... no, the numbers don't seem low to me.

 

 

Oh, sorry, not at the current time, but I meant that the numbers suggested as the total before the Trolloc Wars other than Jade's.

 

 

 

Yes, but the same points apply. Certain factors result in a higher number of girls approaching the Tower in that time--we know the population was larger, and the decline in the percentage of channelers had probably not fallen to 1% at that point in time, and too society at the time appeared more knowledgeable and thus less superstitious and fightened of the Aes Sedai at large (it is perhaps telling that the Children of the Light appear in the same period that the Aes Sedai decline)....

 

This is why we see only 1,000 Aes Sedai now, where there may well have been as much as 7 or 8,000 circa the Trolloc Wars [the Oaths play there own part in this number, but depending on your source that began prior to the Trolloc Wars].

 

Irrespective, the reason for the low numbers has nothing to do with the potential for channeling in society either now nor during the Trolloc Wars. Everything I stated applied then as it does now--Aes Sedai attitudes and policies toward recruitment (which they force upon the Westlands as a whole) savagely stunt the manifestation of channelers as a whole. The only difference between now and the Trolloc Wars is that the general population has decreased and the attitude toward the Aes Sedai has shifted toward the misinformed superstitious end of the spectrum.

[MrJade]

Yes, but the same points apply. Certain factors result in a higher number of girls approaching the Tower in that time--we know the population was larger, and the decline in the percentage of channelers had probably not fallen to 1% at that point in time, and too society at the time appeared more knowledgeable and thus less superstitious and fightened of the Aes Sedai at large (it is perhaps telling that the Children of the Light appear in the same period that the Aes Sedai decline)....

 

This is why we see only 1,000 Aes Sedai now, where there may well have been as much as 7 or 8,000 circa the Trolloc Wars [the Oaths play there own part in this number, but depending on your source that began prior to the Trolloc Wars].

 

Irrespective, the reason for the low numbers has nothing to do with the potential for channeling in society either now nor during the Trolloc Wars. Everything I stated applied then as it does now--Aes Sedai attitudes and policies toward recruitment (which they force upon the Westlands as a whole) savagely stunt the manifestation of channelers as a whole. The only difference between now and the Trolloc Wars is that the general population has decreased and the attitude toward the Aes Sedai has shifted toward the misinformed superstitious end of the spectrum.

 

Correct, the current attitudes towards the White Tower would be nonconducive towards a large number of Aes Sedai, before the Trolloc Wars this would have been entirely different. I agree that there would be certainly no less than 7 or 8,000, but my sole question at this point is the source that states that the Oaths were started at sometime before the Trolloc Wars. The only source I could find (which admittedly, I do not have a concordance for WoT) is the TGH which states after the Trolloc Wars.

This also makes sense when taken with my cultural hypothesis on the change in Aes Sedai. It seems likely that during the Compact of the Ten Nations the Aes Sedai were not expected, nor did they intervene militarily as they do in the modern times. (Marching to Malkier, admittedly unsuccessful, and the interventions in the Borderlands.) They were probably not expecting the Trolloc Wars and lost most of their prestige and had to take the oaths after the amount of distrust the Trolloc Wars bred.

The Oaths could have originally been meant to dissuade fears that the Aes Sedai would continue to militarily intervene as they must have during the Trolloc Wars. (We know the Aes Sedai fought battles and lead campaings.) After the Trolloc Wars were over, the surviving nations could very well have been terrified that the Aes Sedai could have tried to assume direct control. With the Oaths, they could have sated these fears and continued their own power. However, after and during Hawkwing, the people started to realize that the Oaths could be circumvented in certain ways, and thus distrust began to grow.

Now the Aes Sedai have two issues: distrust and the shortening of their lives. Couple this with the smaller percent of channelers and the rampant mistrust of the White Tower, we can clearly see why their numbers would be shrunk.

[wotfan4472]

Apologies Luckers. Did not realise I had made such a big mistake like that. I went by what Rand and the other male channelers said and just asumed that they did all the fighting...... I also forgot about Latra Posae Decume. Still good to hear someone comment on what I post, lol.

[Luckers]

The first Oath to be sworn (which is now the Second Oath, against using the power to make weapons for one man to kill another) was reputedly sworn some time after the Breaking in memory of what had been wrought during the War of the Shadow. The Oath against lying was sworn during the negative shift in the perception of Aes Sedai, which was during the War of the Hundred Years.

 

There is little information about the Third Oath, other than that it was probably sworn after the Second and before the First.

[Barid Bel Medar]

So really the Second is the first, the Third is the Second, and the First is the Third. 

 

Typical Aes Sedai.  

[Luckers]

I suspect the Oath against lying was made the First Oath bumping the other two because it, unlike the others, was sworn to placate the masses, and thus the Aes Sedai wanted to make a big display of its importance.