I see dead people

[Mat is the Boss]

If you actually bother to READ the books, Rand visit Tarwins Gap towards the end of the first book (the Eye of the World). The entire army of Shienar(probably 100 000), and the army of shadowspawn (which dwarfed the army of Shienar) was in the broad mountain pass known as Tarwins Gap.

[RobertAlexWillis]

And in another thread I already asked, what is the terrain at Tarwins Gap? If it is really narrow, I fail to see why the shadowspawns can't be held back.

 

Go back and check. I answered it in the other thread.

 

The whole ORLY? thing must be some new pop culture insult. I've found that those kind of things are what people like you resort to when there is nothing factual you can say, because the facts disagree with you.

[Aremeriel]

cloglord, another horse person here and I completely and totally agree with your statements, however, it seems that Thor doesn't understand that a horse is a living being and not a machine. ;)

 

Thor, you're comparing Lan's ride across the Borderlands with the Mongolians... I found a reference at http://www.melodeo.com/browse_feeds/get_episode/95037 to what you're talking about

They carried their houses with them, drank their own horse's blood to stay alive, and could travel up to 100 miles per day

This say they COULD travel UP to 100 miles (160 km) per day. It says nothing about them doing it on a regular basis, nor anything about them doing it over longer periods of time.

However, I have another comparison for you, the world famous Pony Express. (Famous for the long distances covered in short time, don't you agree?)

 

Facts about TPE from http://www.ponyexpress.org

Qualifications: Age ranged from 11 to mid 40s. Riders had to weigh less than 125 lbs.

Riders Changed: 75 to 100 miles.

Horses Changed: 10 to 15 miles.

Speed of Rider: Average 10 miles per hour.

Route: 1966 miles from St. Joseph, Missouri to Sacramento, California.

Time: 10 days.

Quickest Run: 7 days and 17 hours. The riders were carrying President Lincoln's Inaugural Address.

The distance 1966 miles can imo be compared with the width of the Borderlands at approximately 2000 miles even if TPE went through rougher terrain. And your calculation was 20 days at 100 miles (160 kms) per day. Even with resting during the night you’d have to maintain the speed (or at least close to) of TPE.

Just 2 words to sum up your “calculations”, Thor:

NOT POSSIBLE!

[RobertAlexWillis]

Lets take a real example from the books, to see how fast Lan can travel alone.

 

At the end of The Fires of Heaven, when Moiraine disappears through the ter'angreal, Lan starts moving toward Myrelle. He was Compelled to do so, by the way Moiraine had changed the bond (see The Great Hunt, chapter 22 Watchers). Myrelle was in Salidar at this time, which is a slightly shorter distance from Cairhien (Lan's starting point) than the ride from World's End to Tarwin's Gap.

 

Now we know Lan rode hard, both because he was Compelled, and because of the condition in which he arrived. And how long did it take him? 85 days. (from the 21 of Choren to the 22 of Danu, see: http://www.users.bigpond.com/steven_cooper/tl0999.htm#book5 for a timeline)

 

There are roads most of the way from Cairhien to just north of Salidar. He wouldn't have gotten lost, because he could feel where Myrelle is.

 

People simply overestimate the abilities of horses. The Pony Express could average 10 miles per hour ONLY because they switched horses every 10 to 15 miles (thats 133-200 horses on a 2000 mile trip). A single rider, on a single horse, could not come even remotely close. RJ knows this, which is why Lan took 85 days to move a distance roughly equivalent (actually a little shorter) to moving across the Borderlands.

 

This is a matter of record in the books, Thor. I don't expect you to believe it, but I'm hoping everyone else will.

[Thor]

I never made any calculations, I never said how many days it will take them. But it sure as hell isn't going to take 3 months.

 

I said, a horse can travel 100km easily per day. Which by all accounts is true. That speed is already enough. And thanks for that Mongols reference too.

 

When Lan moved from Cairhien to Salidar, he had to take lots of detours because of the turmoils in the lands around him. I doubt if he has to make any detours this time.

 

o rly is actually quite old, nothing is this world is truly new.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I never said how many days it will take them. But it sure as hell isn't going to take 3 months.

 

Isn't that saying how many days it will take them? And who is "them"? Is it just Lan? Or does he have an army with him?

 

When Lan moved from Cairhien to Salidar, he had to take lots of detours because of the turmoils in the lands around him. I doubt if he has to make any detours this time.

 

Even if he goes twice as fast, its still 42.5 days, and the trip from World's End to Tarwin's Gap is longer than his trip from Cairhien to Salidar ... actually, ten days north of Salidar, since he didn't meet Myrelle until after the Aes Sedai started marching north. Which makes the distance he travelled before even shorter, and the Borderland trip even longer by comparison.

 

You don't seem to comprehend that the most a person can travel in a day is not the same as a pace they can keep up for a long period of time.

 

But as I said, Thor, I don't expect you to believe it. Its only based on what Jordan wrote about the world and characters he created. Why should you believe it?

[Thor]

How wide is the USA?

 

Didn't that cancer survivor go across it in 90 days on foot?

 

I doubt if she is super fit and she is certainly no horse.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Would you please, please cite a source?

 

Anyone can just say "so and so did such and such". I certainly never heard of a person going three thousand miles on foot in 90 days.

 

And, even if it IS true, she wasn't carrying full battle gear, and she didn't have to set up camp evey night. So it has no bearing on Jordan's world. I gave you an example FROM THE BOOKS.

 

And if she did cross the US in 90 days, you can bet she's fit.

[Thor]

Books are based on real life.

 

And really, if you didn't know about that woman, you obviously haven't been watching the news because for those few days, it was all over the show (a little bit overhyped).

 

I made a mistake though, she was on bike, not foot, but horses are still much faster than bikes. Her name is Jane Tomlinson.

[Aremeriel]

Anyone can just say "so and so did such and such". I certainly never heard of a person going three thousand miles on foot in 90 days.

Hope Thor can start finding the sources himself soon' date=' as I feel compelled to verify/disprove them every time he claims something.

 

Actually, "The Walking Man" crossed USA in 87 days, but says it was only 2463 miles, which would make the time used on 3000 miles 105 days (according to average miles per day).

http://www.walkingman.org/index.php?module=pagemaster&PAGE_user_op=view_page&PAGE_id=27&MMN_position=16:16

I have already walked across the USA, from Florida to California, 2463 miles in 87 days

 

I haven't heard of this Jane Tomlinson before and it hasn't been all over the news here... Not seen a single shred of info about her on the news.

From http://www.janesappeal.com/bio.htm

Jane is 42, from Leeds, Great Britain. She is the only person with incurable cancer to complete a full Ironman (4km Swim, 180Km bike ride and full marathon – to be done inside 17 hours). Has completed two half Ironmans, the London Marathon 3 times (She’s the only person to do the marathon whilst on Chemotherapy), the New York Marathon and three London Triathlons.

 

I doubt if she is super fit and she is certainly no horse.

Ehhh.. She seems to be in a lot better shape than most people at least.

Also' date=' comparing a bicycle with a horse doesn't work. One reason being the bicyclist can rest when going downhill and on flats just maintaining the speed, a horse can't rest under any of these circumstances.

 

Le Tour de France

The route

Running from Saturday July 2nd to Sunday July 24th 2005, the 92nd Tour de France will be made up of 21 stages and will cover a total distance of 3607 kilometres.

 

An endurance ride for horses (one-day event)

The 100-mile rides are run by the same horse and rider in under 24 hours-- but there are usually 8 vet checks, where the horse is required to rest for 30 minutes, as well as pass a health check. That's 4 hours spent resting; also, the rider may get off and jog with their horse partway. These horses are also in top condition, and must pass many vet exams.

There are 150 mile rides too, but those usually go over 3 days...

 

Some horse examples for you from http://www.ultimatehorsesite.com/info/farandfast.html

The Akhal-Teke, a rare breed from Turkmenistan, is known for its excellent endurance. In 1935, the historic ride that this breed is famous started. Twenty-eight riders on Akhal-tekes rode 2,600 miles fro Ashkabad to Moscows, including 215 across the harsh Kara Kum desert without water (where temperatures can reach 149F). They finished in eighty-four days.

 

1808: The Marquis of Huntley rode from Aberdeen, Scotland, to Inverness (105 miles) in seven hours on eight relays of horses. (Each horse averaged 15 mph for about 13 miles.)

 

1892: Prussian and Austro-Hungarian soldiers raced from Berlin to Vienna. The winner rode 350 miles in 72 hours. The horse died, as did 25 others out of 199 who started.

 

1920: The first U.S. Cavalry Mounted Service Cup race averaged 60 miles/day for five days, carrying up to 245 lb. of rider and gear.

Note the Akhal-Teke reference, would equal to Lan's ride in 66 days. And if we take away the week spent in the desert, that would still leave 59 days.. ;)

Also note the US Cavalry race(!) with averaging 60 miles (96 kms) per day, there's a reason that race isn't longer. ;)

 

Edited to add:

I made a mistake though' date=' she was on bike, not foot, but horses are still much faster than bikes.[/quote']

O rly?

http://www.recumbents.com/WISIL/records/Fastest_Ever.htm

Top 129 speeds on bike, ranging from 81 mph to 49,99 mph.

 

Fastest horses

http://www.ultimatehorsesite.com/info/worldrecords.html

Fastes Horse

Big Racked reached 43.26 mph in a 1/4 mile race in Mexico City, Mexico on Feb. 5, 1945. Onion Roll reached the same speed at Thistledown, Cleveland, OH on Sept. 27, 1993. A record for 1 1/2 miles is 37.82 mph, made by 3 yr old Hawkster (carrying 121 pounds) at Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA on Oct. 14, 1989, with 2 min. 22.8 sec.

That's just about pure speed...

Check facts next time, Thor.

[Thor]

What is this Battle Mountain? If you are going downhill, then obviously it's fast.

 

But on flat land, there is no ways that a bike can go faster than a horse.

[Aremeriel]

What is this Battle Mountain? If you are going downhill' date=' then obviously it's fast.

 

But on flat land, there is no ways that a bike can go faster than a horse.[/quote']

Drifting here now, Battle Hill is a place in Nevada.

http://www.nevadaweb.com/cnt/cc/bmtn.html

 

And on top of the reference page for the bicycle records it states:

The following lists the Best Speed Performances by a Rider and Vehicle combination. Speeds were typically measured over a distance of 200 meters on "flat" courses with little or no tail wind assistance. In some cases, speeds were recorded over 500 meters, 1000 meters, even over 80 kilometers for the One Hour Event. All vehicles utilized some form of aerodynamic body to make these speeds possible. All vehicles were entirely human-powered.

I will admit it was a bit of a trick though, as they're not ordinary bikes, but Recumbent Bikes

 

However, you can't ignore the facts about horses' speed and stamina over distances verified in my last post. Give Lan a Recumbent bike and he'll get to Tarwin's Gap a lot faster. ;)

[cloglord]

Okay, so taking out the moron posts, what does that leave us?

 

Robert, your in book reference to Lan's speed is one that I've thought of as well. However, it does not nessecarily reflect the time it will take Lan to move this similar distance this time.

 

Factors that need to be considered.

1.Lan traveled overland, not by roads. Myrelle thinks to herself that she felt him coming to her straight as an arrow, not even deviating to avoid a fight.

 

2. Lan traveled a good portion of the way through Carhien, which at the time was full of brigands, itching for fights.

 

3. Lan was wounded from some of those fights.

 

85 days under those condiditons, maybe 2/3rds that time or even half of it, on good roads, in friendly territory. Who knows?

 

I am fond of Arameriel's posts citing historic horse races.

 

Note the Akhal-Teke reference, would equal to Lan's ride in 66 days. And if we take away the week spent in the desert, that would still leave 59 days..

 

Lets call it two months then. Two months for the ghost phenomenon to turn backwards another 1500-2000 years. Sounds reasonable to me.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I can buy two months as a time frame for his trip.

 

 

The problem is, I don't think Tarmon Gai'don is two months away.

 

 

Rand is going to start Tarmon Gai'don by breaking the last of the seals (Clearing the rubble before he can build, as Herid Fel put it) He's going to have to do that before the Pattern loosening phenomenon gets back another 1500 years, because when time loosens to the last point where the Dark One was free, who knows what will happen to the Pattern. Rand has to force a confrontation before that. So as soon as he's got the Seanchan behind him, he's going to strike. Nynaeve is with Rand, so she'll know this is happening. I'm sure Rand will give her a few minutes to go help Lan out. In fact, that may be how he gets rid of her so she doesn't interfere with Alivia when he asks her to help him die.

 

She'll probably take Lan (and whoever is with him)straight from wherever he is, to wherever the rest of his force is gathered. Travelling, she would be able to do that in fairly short order.

[cloglord]

For once Robert I agree with you 100%. I do believe that the correct interpretation of Herid Fel's note is that Rand needs to break the seals. This seems to be backed up by Ltt's mad ravings about breaking the seals.

 

I don't agree that there is any arbitrary timeline that must be maintained before TG. We do not know if the appearance of these ghosts is a manifestation of the DO's power as lord of the grave, if it is because the pattern is weakening, if it is the seal weakening. We simply do not know. The element of prophecy in these books leads me to believe, that at this point, even insignifigant things are going to have some sort of signifigant bearing on wrapping things up. I envision the point we are in the books as something akin to Verin's cobbled together compulsion weave. It looks like a tangled mess of plot threads, with tangents going in every different direction, put I believe that RJ is going to pull some of those threads, and the whole thing will wrap up into a neat package. I'm not saying that everything will be completely resolved, but I think that RJ is trying to write a story that shows us the interconnectedness of seemingly random events, ans thereby revealing the complexity of the pattern. The reason I am so sure that Mattin Stepanos will end up bringing the horn to Illian is because it would be one such demonstration. If you had told me back in book 7 that Mattin Stepaneos was going to turn up again, I would have told you you were crazy . Now that he's back, I have to think that he will serve a purpose.

 

It is things like the length of time it would take Lan to get from point A to point Z that I think will give us the most valuable clues as to how RJ intends to wrap this up in one lst book. Other things might include the amount of time it would take Mat to travel to the tower of ghenji and back. TEotW tells us it is a 10 day journey down river from the tower to Whitebridge. A map tells us that Mat looks to be at least another 10 days downriver from that. Even if we assume that an upriver trip takes no longer than a downriver trip, (which I do not think is the case,) It still means that he wouldn't be able to get to the tower and back to any point in civilization in less than a month. Who knows how long it will take him to rescue Moraine? What role does he have yet to play with the Seanchan? How will he be reunited with the horn? All of these things will take time, my guess, around 2 months.

 

How about Galad? We know that he intends to march 7000 men to Tar Valon. How long will that take? Even if we assume that he doesn't make it all the way to Tar Valon, how far will the whitecloaks have to travel to be somewhere that they can play a part in TG? How long to get to Perrin and Morgase? How long to Camelyn?

 

How long will it take for Arad Doman to be stabilized for Rand? How long to fix the white tower, how long to destroy the black? How long for the other third of the aes sedai to gather? How long does it take for the seafolk to sail supplies for millions from Tear to Arad Doman? How long for the Ogier to decide to fight instead of run?

 

I think it's going to take time. No amount of traveling will be able to accomplishe all these things, only time will.

[RobertAlexWillis]

OK. We disagree, and I admit, my timeline is based a great deal on how I think things will go down.

 

I think the right amount of Travelling can accomplish bringing all those people together, and that's why so many people had to learn it. I'll address a couple ...

 

How about Galad? We know that he intends to march 7000 men to Tar Valon. How long will that take? Even if we assume that he doesn't make it all the way to Tar Valon, how far will the whitecloaks have to travel to be somewhere that they can play a part in TG? How long to get to Perrin and Morgase? How long to Camelyn?

 

He and Perrin are both in northern Altara. Not much problem there, as Perrin has people who can Travel with him.

 

Actually, alot of this hinges on Perrin being where he is, with the people he has there. That's why the Pattern indulged him in his otherwise ridiculous quest throwing everything away to save Faile. It moves him into position to facilitate alot of things very quickly (including helping Mat get to the Tower of Ghenjei).

 

How long to fix the white tower, how long to destroy the black?

 

Well, it doesn't say the Black Tower will be destroyed, it says it will be rent. The split between Logain and Taim is already doing that, and I think that will be fought out as a PART of the Last Battle.

 

As for the White Tower, it is ripe for Egwene right now. Her internal campaign has assured her that once Elaida is gone, she will have control in short order.

 

How long does it take for the seafolk to sail supplies for millions from Tear to Arad Doman?

 

Those supplies may not arrive until after Tarmon Gai'don. Rebuilding will be key, at that point, and the supplies are for the populace, as much as the armies.

 

How long for the Ogier to decide to fight instead of run?

 

One good speech from Loial.

 

How long will it take for Arad Doman to be stabilized for Rand?

 

Rhuarc is already on it. He's a fairly abrupt fellow when he needs to be.

 

The reason I am so sure that Mattin Stepanos will end up bringing the horn to Illian is because it would be one such demonstration. If you had told me back in book 7 that Mattin Stepaneos was going to turn up again, I would have told you you were crazy . Now that he's back, I have to think that he will serve a purpose.

 

But it makes as much sense for that to be a post Tarmon Gai'don purpose as a pre-Tarmon Gai'don purpose.

 

Not everything will be wrapped up neatly before Tarmon Gai'don. I think it will catch a few people by surprise and out of position, and there will be a bit of scrambling to get in place.

[cloglord]

I'm not saying that everything will be wrapped up neatly, but I am saying, that there will be enough things wrapped up neatly that we will hopefully, finish reading the book, and think to ourselves, "wow, RJ really knew how to make that happen way back in the beggining?" When we first read about Maesma in TGH did anyone think that he would be an intregal part of how Ghealdean, and Amadicia would be brought to the Dragon Reborn? When we first read about the DotNM's did we assume that Matt would bind the Seanchan to Rand? When Min first told Suian that something bad was going to happen, did you immeadiately assume that the tower would be broken for the rest of the series?

 

The pattern, IE RJ needed Elayne to be Queen of Andor, so he had Morgase run from Rahvin into the arms of the whitecloaks. RJ needed for the whitecloaks to be led by someone who would/could lead them to TG under Rand, so what did it/he do? He sent Galad to the tower to train, and then to the whitecloaks. Why does Galad end up as LCC? Because Morgase ran to Amadicia instead of Murandy, or Illian, or any other place.The pattern/RJ needed to make gwene the amrylin, so what does it/he do? He splits the WT, making the impossible possible.

 

It is not coincidence, its good writing. If RJ left Stepaneos in the books, I am sure it was for a good reason. If he waited until this point in the books to send Lan into the borderlands, I'm sure there is a good reason. RJ hasn't had to resort to contrivances to make plots end up right so far, so why assume that the pattern/RJ wouldn't give the good guys just enough time to do things before TG? WHy would they be caught flatfooted this time, when things have always occured in their proper time thus far?

 

As for the topic of things being resolved after TG, I only have this to say. How much book do you think RJ will write after the conclusion of TG? It's going to take a lot of pages just to get it through to that point, what's the point of resolving too much after the fact? It seems to me that RJ's going to have to tell us about the white tower/black tower face off, the seanchan/randlanders face off, and explain to what becomes of Rand and his ladies. That's a tall order, without throwing smallfries like stepaneos into the mix. Why keep him around, if all he's going to be is a half a paragraph about how Illian is back to normal after TDR died at TG? I figure that RJ's got 2 maybe 3 chapters and an epilouqe, after the cimax of TG. What would make the kindgom of Illian important enough to warrant space in those chapters? I think more will be wrapped up pre-TG than less.

[Mat is the Boss]

cloglord

Why does Mattin Stepaneos need to have a bigger role then pulling down Elaida with Egwene? That is a task important enough for RJ to have kept him alive.

 

All the things that need to be wrapped up neatly before Tarmon Gaidon, can be so in a week or two. I doubt that Rand will wait much more then a week before he begins Tarmon Gaidon. What`s not wrapped up by then, will be dealt with during the Last Battle, or after.

 

What needs to be wrapped up before the Last Battle is the question. From Rand`s POV we can see that he is going to deal with the Seanchan before he starts Tarmon Gaidon. I can`t remember if he thinks that more need to be done. I know that most of us would want the Tower to be united, the ta`veren united, the Black Tower "rent in blood" and the Borderlanders back in the Borderlands, before Tarmon Gaidon. But there`s one man who is going to decide when Tarmon Gaidon begins, and that is Rand. And Rand is not going to wait much longer. And absolutely not 2 months, or whatever Lan needs to reach Tarwins Gap

[Thor]

Where does it say that he doesn't want to wait longer?

 

Where does it say that he can't wait longer?

[RobertAlexWillis]

Where does it say that he doesn't want to wait longer?

 

Where does it say that he can't wait longer?

 

It doesn't Thor. This is conjecture. We're using our minds to think of what might happen.

 

But, in the same vein, here are some questions for you:

 

Where does it say he has lots of time left?

 

Where does it say he doesn't need to hurry up?

[RobertAlexWillis]

Oh, and for cloglord:

 

How much book do you think RJ will write after the conclusion of TG?

 

I anticipate about between a quarter and a third of the book will be post Tarmon Gai'don proper. Even not wrapping everything up, there will be alot that he just has to. But we'll see when its published.

[cloglord]

I certainly hope its not 1/3 to 1/4th of the book. I would liken that to the last hour of Peter Jackson's movie adaptation of RotK. I mean come on, how many times do hobbits need to cry before the end really is the end?

[Albert]

Why compare WoT, a book, to a movie, which differed from the book that it was based on? :)

[Guest cwestervelt]

Semhirage seemes to have indicated that this is the type of thing that Rand can expect' date=' and that even Graendal usually failed to seperate the combined personalities of someone thus afflicted.[/quote']

 

Um, no. What Semirhage said was that even Graendal usually failed to achieve reintegration. According to Semirhage, what Rand can expect is an abrupt descent into terminal madness. (Knife of Dreams, chapter 27, A Plain Wooden Box)

 

Assuming that you can believe anything Semirhage told them. Which is extremely doubtful. She's just mixing enough truth into what she says to make the lies more believable. It would also be in character for her to attempt to use her position as a captive to destabilize and undermine the confidence of those around Rand.

 

Wish I could find the quote of RJ's. To paraphrase, who would trust the word of a forsaken?

[Guest cwestervelt]

Why does Mattin Stepaneos need to have a bigger role then pulling down Elaida with Egwene? That is a task important enough for RJ to have kept him alive.

 

Mattin Stepaneos could easily turn out to be key in how the Borderlander army chooses to deal with Rand. Etheniel's thoughts in the prologue to The Path of Daggers indicate suspicion that Rand was responsible for Stepaneos' disappearance.

 

Ethenielle sighed faintly when Serailla nodded approval at the command. Allies of long standing' date=' yet the times bred suspicion like flies on a midden. What they were about stirred the heap and set the flies to swirling. Too many rulers to the south had died or vanished in the last year for her to feel any comfort in wearing a crown. Too many lands had been smashed as thoroughly as an army of Trollocs could have achieved. Whoever he was, this al'Thor fellow had much to answer for. Much.[/quote']

 

I certainly hope its not 1/3 to 1/4th of the book. I would liken that to the last hour of Peter Jackson's movie adaptation of RotK. I mean come on' date=' how many times do hobbits need to cry before the end really is the end?[/quote']

 

Peter Jackson's adaptation of the Lord of the Rings, especially the Two Towers and Return of the King were action movies, not story telling movies. Once the action was over, he had no story left. As such, it didn't lend well to the use of an epilogue. He hadn't left any of the plots unresolved. In the books themselves, there were plots that still unresolved when the Ring was destroyed. Tolkien used about the last 1/4 of The Return of the King to resolve those plots. And that in a series less than 1/4 of the scale of The Wheel of Time.

 

The size and scope of the Wheel of Time needs a significant post climax epilogue. A full third of the book occurring post Tarmon Gai'don is not at all unreasonable.