Channeler to Soldier Ratio

[Wandering Channeler]

Does anyone know the military value of an average channeler to an average soldier ratio? What I am looking for is something like 1 channeler = 100 soldiers. This will obviously vary depening on which kind of channeler we are talking about so a break down of asha'man, aes sedai, windfinder, wise one, and whatever other channeler you can think of it what I am looking for.

 

Please exclude healing/travelling in the equation, just looking for the strength of trolloc killing. Also this is average vs average so 1 Rand = 100,000 soldiers or 1 lan = 10 channelers is not something I am looking for, although that is interesting so maybe another time.

 

An estimate of the total channelers on each side would be nice too.

[Barid Bel Medar]

I don't think there can be any real accurate estimate on amount of Channelers, you could make a basic one of the White Tower and the Black Tower, but Wise Ones, Damane, Windfinders etc.. There is not enough information.

 

This may help a bit though.

 

INTERVIEW: Apr 20th, 2004

 

TOR Questions of the Week Part I (Verbatim)

 

But he also operates under a constraint that did not exist in the Age of Legends. At that time, about 3% of the population could learn to channel to some extent, though not all chose to—the training

program

took time, and being able to channel carried with it certain obligations that not everyone wanted to undertake—but that still meant there were, at a minimum, hundreds of thousands of people in the world who could channel, and more likely millions. A large pool of possible recruits. Break a tool or decide it isn't working right and throw it out, because there is an endless supply of similar tools waiting on the shelf. That might be said to have been his attitude. In the here-and-now of the books, that figure is about 1%, and of that 1%, very, very few have any idea that they could learn to channel, much less have any training at all. Here-and-now, the pool of possible recruits is tiny.

 

I suppose you could do a rough estimate of how many soldiers there are, we have had a few numbers as evidence in the text, and it could be compared to a rough estimate of the Black and White Tower, or even an estimate of overall channelers.

 

Not sure if you mean to include Shadowspawn as soldiers aswell, if so, we have no knowledge of how many Shadowspawn there actually are. In the millions, most likely, but all we know is that there are a lot more than the Blight can suficiently sustain (which is another debatable subject, just how much the Blight can sustain)

 

And for the Shadow Channelers, it would be harder still to estimate. All we know of is the remaining Chosen, the 200 odd Black Ajah in Verin's list, an unknown number in the Black Tower with Taim.

 

Non-Towers Dreadlord numbers is anyone's guess. Who knows how many Aiel, Seanchan, Sharan, Sea Folk etc.. DF channelers there are.

 

So I am aware that the post was of no real use, hopefully it does explain SOMETHING

 

I suppose I will give my own guess though.

 

There would be perhaps 1-1500 Asha'man (in all, including Dedicated/Soldiers)

Perhaps 2000 under Egwene in the White Tower.

I would say around 1000-2000 Wise Ones that can channel in all of the Clans.

500-1000 Sea Folk.

1-1500 of the Kin.

5-6000 damane (and a larger number of sul'dam, who can, after all, learn to channel) in the whole of Seanchan

I would say 500-1500 actually on this side of the Ocean at the moment.

 

Soldiers

 

200k Borderlanders we know of.

50-100k left to defend the Blight.

 

100-200k soldiers under Elayne from Andor and Cairhien

 

Average 50-70k from Illian and Tear (each, not combined)

 

20-50k Tower Guard under Bryne

 

250-500 under Seanchan dominated territories.

 

300-400k Aiel

 

then around 200k miscellaneous and people I have forgotten.

 

Not including Seanchan mainland or Shara.

[Vardar]

I don't think there is an estimate. In book 1 we see Lord Alg say Moriane would be worth any 1000 men on the field of battle. Rand goes to take on the Seanchan army with a handful of channelers. (Like less than 100 I think) and he prety much does it. It boils down to a few things:

1) Is it against an army of shadowspawn? (For AS only)

2) What type of weaves are your channelers good at? Distance matters here.

3) Using circles or not? I mean, circles have advantages but there are disadvantages too.

4) Does the other side have channelers. This may be the most important question. Along with:

5) Are they all one gender or mixed. Being able to see the weaves will help, women are at a disadvantage since they can clearly pick out the channeler in a crowd, men have an advantage that they can dress like a soldier and hide in with the crowd and channel away.

 

Now I'm rambling.

 

It's generally accepted that there are around 1000 AS in the tower (Not counting the 1000 recent novices and such). Taim said he could match that with the Black tower, and if he did, there would be about 1000 as well.

I can't find numbers on Wise ones right now, but there was a clan with 300 wise ones, meaning the amount of wise one channelers was huge.

Sea Folk Windfinders have a large group of channelers, as well as Shara (Although they most likely won't be included)

And finally the Seanchan, which has tens of thousands of Damae, reportedly, but I find that number to be really high, since they're all sparkers. But then again, given that all females are tested, and they have a large population, it would make sense.

 

Anyway, the number of channelers would be 3-5% of the current population. And of those a smaller percentage would be sparkers, meaning in this day in age it wouldn't be uncommon for a large percentage of that 3-5% to not even know they could channel (with the exception of the wise ones and to a lesser the Seanchan since there nonsparkers can't technically channel).

 

Does that answer your question? Nope, probably not, but I doubt there is a true answer to your question. Everything is too relative.

[MasterAblar]

I've tried to figure out about how many Ashaman there are at the BT and how many of them are actually darkfriends. In chapter 14 of tPoD Gedwin says there are 448 Ashaman at the BT, with recruiting parties bringing in another 3 or 4 each day. In chapter 18 of KoD Logain says there are 91 Ashaman with Taim, so we can assume they are darkfriends. There are 77 days between those chapters which means 231 to 308 new recruits bringing the total number of Ashaman up to 679 to 756. At this point the darkfriends make up about 13% of the Ashaman. Another 57 days pass to the end of tGS, bringing the numbers up to 850 to 984, which means 110 to 127 darkfriends. One month forward (28 days in WoT), there should be 934 to 1116 Ashaman, with 121 to 145 darkfriends. Rand sent half the Ashaman out of the BT in chapter 18 of KoD, none of which were Taim's men, so 340 to 380 Ashaman. That means that by the time the leaders meet at the FoM, there are between 600 and 740 Ashaman at the BT, of which at least 20% are darkfriends.

 

Obviously there are a number of other elements that have to be taken into account: deaths, burning out, insanity (up until the end of WH), possible increase in the number of recruiting parties, 13*13 turnings, and probably others I have not thought of. Furthermore the BT storyline has not yet caught up with the others. However all things considered I would guess that Taim has held his promise to equal the WT in terms of numbers, not counting the new novices brought in by Egwene.

[Sasha Grayes]

Try to find the Seanchan chapter with a banner-general's POV. He mentioned his troops are badly outnumbered, but he has X amount of damane so it evens out. That could be the rough estimate of the military value of a channeler. I think this was against Ituralde. Really can't remember the details.

[Maleshub]

Try to find the Seanchan chapter with a banner-general's POV. He mentioned his troops are badly outnumbered, but he has X amount of damane so it evens out. That could be the rough estimate of the military value of a channeler. I think this was against Ituralde. Really can't remember the details.

 

It was general Turam with 200K troops and 200 damane thinking that Ituralde has a total of 400K troops.

 

A couple of examples that could give us an indication of channeler value are Dumai Wells and Malden (both against Shaido). And the defense of Algarin's manor house in Tear is also noteworthy (but LTT's takeover of Rand's channeling threw that askew).

 

My estimate would be a 1:100 value ratio.

[Cybertrolloc]

They're as in/effective as the plot needs them to be :)

 

With just the things we've seen done with the power, non-channelers shouldn't even be a concern (even outside of things like the fall of Manatheran). They're Schrodinger's Wizards even with what little is known to the WT before the series proper, let alone intelligent use of same.

 

Granted channeling has been downgraded since Dumai's Wells (less than 50 AS held off however many 10k Shaido; ~200 Ashamen that had been channeling for a few months wrecked them). Rand et al acted really stupid at Algarin's, and it was still a massacre...but a lot of the light's heavy hitters were there too.

[Vardar]

They're as in/effective as the plot needs them to be :)

 

With just the things we've seen done with the power, non-channelers shouldn't even be a concern (even outside of things like the fall of Manatheran). They're Schrodinger's Wizards even with what little is known to the WT before the series proper, let alone intelligent use of same.

 

Granted channeling has been downgraded since Dumai's Wells (less than 50 AS held off however many 10k Shaido; ~200 Ashamen that had been channeling for a few months wrecked them). Rand et al acted really stupid at Algarin's, and it was still a massacre...but a lot of the light's heavy hitters were there too.

 

Help off, but they would have been overran eventually, and not just because of the Wise Ones there.

 

See this is where it gets confusing, and that's a great example. WIthout the wise ones on their side, with just 30 AS, the Shaido would have potentially been wreacked. (Depending on how many fireballs one can throw before one becomes tired). Toss up the shield of air like they did, Shaido can't break thru, waves of fire over and over. Of course in an actual battle this would be a lot harder, and both sides would have channeling so it makes it even worse, because at that point you'd have what is described in most book series as a wizard battle.

 

In other words, as a magic user on your side, your primary objective is to protect your troops and seek out and destroy the magic users on the other side, otherwise sure you can wreck their troops, but they're wrecking yours too. So like Theo up there said, 1:100 makes sense, but I'd say depending on Str more like 1:500-1000. But I don't think we've evern see just how much they can do before they get tired in the books.

[Wandering Channeler]

Thanks for the information guys.

 

Assuming General Turam knew what he was talking about: hes short 200,000 troops but has 200 damane meanings 1 damane = 1,000 troops

 

I would put damane on the upper part of the channeler list for being able to burn face. In my mind it would go somethings like this with the highest being the best at destruction with the power:

 

Damane/Ashaman

Wise Ones

Aes Sedai/Windfinders

Kin

 

Not sure how accurate that is, so if anyone can correct me please do so.

 

I see your point about the usefulness of channelers in battle will depend mainly on them being support to the troops, but seems like if one side has an adavantage in channelers then it just crushes the other side. For example looking at the black tower stats above if there are 700 ashaman at the black tower and 20% are darkfriends that would be 140 DF and 560 light. The numbers cancel leaving the light in the positive 420. Going off of Turam's thoughts that gives the light a 420,000 troop advantage. IF Rand/Mat is able to get the seachan to fall in line for TG then the DO will either have to have some channeler breeding farms somewhere (possibly the infamous sharp toothed fellers) or 1,000 extra trollics for each extra channeler the light has.

 

We could go to the next level and add the dragons (canons) into the mix but that just complicates things more than necessary for now. Also this may all be irrelevent unless there is a true showdown at TG compared to sneaking in the back door to reseal the bore (where has that happened before).

 

Enough propaganda, sticking to the topic - can the DO match the light in quantity of channalers?

[Barid Bel Medar]

 

Enough propaganda, sticking to the topic - can the DO match the light in quantity of channalers?

 

No, I don't believe so.

 

That is why orders were to sow chaos. If it came to a Light v Dark all out brawl, Light would win out with sheer numbers.

 

This is, of course, taking it on a basic level of how many there are overall. In reality (of the books) the Light is fractured and has access to far less than they could, even though the numbers of channelers are probably still higher, the DO and Chosen have done enough damage to offset the advantage.

 

In the War of Power, almost half of the world were followers of the Shadow, far more than there are now. Darkfriends are quite rare.

 

The Shadow has it's own advantages though. Firstly the DO himself. He has enough power now to seriously mess up the world, never mind armies or channelers, he could tear the Pattern apart, given a little time. It wouldn't matter if there were 1000 channelers for every soldier fighting for the Shadow, unless Rand seals the DO away, they are pretty much screwed.

 

As for actual numbers, the estimates are the closest thing we have. A little more than 100 known Black Ajah are still alive. Somewhere between 100-400 DF ashaman (there may be a higher percentage, since Taim is gathering unsavoury characters, plus turning people) Then we have the remaining Forsaken, Ishamael, Demandred, Lanfear, Graendal and Moghieden. I assume there would be a few DF's in the Wise Ones, Windfinders, Kin, so lets say perhaps 100-500 possible DF's there. It is harder to tell with the Seanchan, I doubt any Damane are darkfriends, they don't really have any opportunity. The only possibility I could see would be if the sul'dam were DF's, so I would say maybe 100-500 again, in the whole of Seanchan. Who knows how many Ayyad Darkfriends there are, or other, unaccounted parties there are. Like our Sharp-teeth friends (a corruption of the male Aiel channelers, bred with others in the Blight, is my guess), other secretly gathered societies of DF channelers apart form the Aes Sedai or other groups, or even the Land of Madmen (although I doubt they will play any part)

 

In any case, it is a lesser number than those that the Light potentially have access to. But numbers are not necessarily anything. Aes Sedai are not really good at any fighting besides killing Shadowspawn, up against Darkfriend channelers under guidance from Forsaken, with no restrictions by Oath or morally, they could make a mess of Aes Sedai, Wise Ones and Windfinders.

 

The only two forces that would be reliable against channelers in battle, a real battle, would be the Asha'man and damane. Aes Sedai are knowledgeable, and may be able to capture Black Ajah etc.. but in the middle of a large-scale battle, with large-scale OP attacks, I would bet on the Shadow.

 

Shadowspawn are the largest threat, in pure numbers. The attack on the manor and Rand at Maradon barely dented the Shadowspawn armies, the losses were nothing to the DO, or he would have taken more care. I would say that whatever number of soldiers the Light has (those at the FoM and the Seanchan on this side of the ocean) Shadowspawn outnumber them at least 5:1

[Vardar]

Damane/Ashaman

Wise Ones

Aes Sedai/Windfinders

Kin

 

Well. It's kinda hard to measure this. I mean, once they see a weave, they can repeat it right? Plus healing would also be included in battle effectiveness. All in all, I'd think those groups would all be near equal. I mean yea Damaene and Ashaman are pure battle, but the other skills of the others near even it out.

 

Enough propaganda, sticking to the topic - can the DO match the light in quantity of channalers?

 

All in all, it looks like the Light will have the edge on channelers no doubt. Where the Dark side does have the advantage is number of troops (Even if the Seanchan join the battle) and the fact that they have spies on the inside of the Light side. So, sure if you only have 1 in 10 being on the light side (Just tossing that number out to prove a point that's it) but that 1 in 10 on the inside could prove crucial at a moment and be able to destroy quite a few light side members unexpectedly.

 

Plus, like most evil depicted in stories, the lack of teamwork is telling. This is especially true when it comes to the Dreadlords (I'll include forsaken here for ease of use). They don't trust each other. The Light side will have the advantage of working together, and having more Angreal and such, because they work together.

[Vardar]

In any case, it is a lesser number than those that the Light potentially have access to. But numbers are not necessarily anything. Aes Sedai are not really good at any fighting besides killing Shadowspawn, up against Darkfriend channelers under guidance from Forsaken, with no restrictions by Oath or morally, they could make a mess of Aes Sedai, Wise Ones and Windfinders.

 

I think you guys are underestimating the AS here. Since they are only fighting Shadowspawn and DFs, that oath doesn't apply. And whle they don't use battle weaves often, as shown in the stories, they know them and can use them, Plus they have Eggy and Ny showing them new battle weaves. Same for the Windfinders (IF they play a huge part, which I doubt) and Wise Ones, they know and will use them too. The Wise ones have been learning a lot and passing it off.

[Barid Bel Medar]

I think you guys are underestimating the AS here. Since they are only fighting Shadowspawn and DFs, that oath doesn't apply. And whle they don't use battle weaves often, as shown in the stories, they know them and can use them, Plus they have Eggy and Ny showing them new battle weaves. Same for the Windfinders (IF they play a huge part, which I doubt) and Wise Ones, they know and will use them too. The Wise ones have been learning a lot and passing it off.

 

Perhaps, but it isn't so much about knowing a weave. As you say, anyone can learn a weave, and use it.

 

I think that weaves and practice do play a role in the advantage - the Forsaken could, and would, kill thousands with brutally deadly weaves. The Shadow thrives off pain an cruelty - but not all of it. They have no restrictions whatsoever. The weaves the Forsaken could teach them (although we all know they won't - but even half of the weaves) are enough. But they would also learn and discover things for pain, war and destruction that Light-siders wouldn't even think of doing, let alone actually use.

 

Would any Aes Sedai or Windfinder use even half of the weaves Semirhage could use, even if they knew them?

 

Would they destroy cities of men, women and children? Would they use balefire, at all? Would the sacrifice hundreds of soldiers to kill their enemies?

 

That is the kind of thing I was meaning. The Asha'man and Damane are the only real force capable of holding their own in such a situation, even then, I would say the Shadow would have the advantage over them for the same reasons.

[Vardar]

I think you guys are underestimating the AS here. Since they are only fighting Shadowspawn and DFs, that oath doesn't apply. And whle they don't use battle weaves often, as shown in the stories, they know them and can use them, Plus they have Eggy and Ny showing them new battle weaves. Same for the Windfinders (IF they play a huge part, which I doubt) and Wise Ones, they know and will use them too. The Wise ones have been learning a lot and passing it off.

 

Perhaps, but it isn't so much about knowing a weave. As you say, anyone can learn a weave, and use it.

 

I think that weaves and practice do play a role in the advantage - the Forsaken could, and would, kill thousands with brutally deadly weaves. The Shadow thrives off pain an cruelty - but not all of it. They have no restrictions whatsoever. The weaves the Forsaken could teach them (although we all know they won't - but even half of the weaves) are enough. But they would also learn and discover things for pain, war and destruction that Light-siders wouldn't even think of doing, let alone actually use.

 

Would any Aes Sedai or Windfinder use even half of the weaves Semirhage could use, even if they knew them?

 

Would they destroy cities of men, women and children? Would they use balefire, at all? Would the sacrifice hundreds of soldiers to kill their enemies?

 

That is the kind of thing I was meaning. The Asha'man and Damane are the only real force capable of holding their own in such a situation, even then, I would say the Shadow would have the advantage over them for the same reasons.

 

Good question, but remember this is against Shadowspawn. A lot of inhibitations are thrown out of the window. We have seen that people who have something against war have no issue with blasting shadowspawn to death. So I think willingness to use deadly weaves would be a moot point in TG. Pure evil vs Light with survival at stake, all bets are off. All weaves, with the exception of balefire (And the Shadow may hesitate to use it too) will be used with impunity.

[Barid Bel Medar]

I agree with you there. But I was talking about Channeller v Channeller in this instance. The question being about can the Shadow match Channellers of the Light. Now it may be that this isn't a problem, but how many are willing to kill even Black Ajah without hesitating? Executing tried Black Ajah is all very good, but killing in cold blood is something else entirely.

 

But yeah, most of what you said I agree.

 

The other thing I wanted to explore in the last post was the potential for dirty tricks. Like taking hostages, threatening innocents etc...

 

The Light is on the back foot inherently, they are fighting to protect, the Shadow only fights to destroy.

 

They would sacrifice millions of Shadowspawn and darkfriends to achieve their goals, but the Light won't be so unrestricted.

 

That sorta stuff is what I am talking about. They have to defend children and non-combatants, cities etc...

[Luckers]

I suppose I will give my own guess though.

 

There would be perhaps 1-1500 Asha'man (in all, including Dedicated/Soldiers)

Perhaps 2000 under Egwene in the White Tower.

I would say around 1000-2000 Wise Ones that can channel in all of the Clans.

500-1000 Sea Folk.

1-1500 of the Kin.

5-6000 damane (and a larger number of sul'dam, who can, after all, learn to channel) in the whole of Seanchan

I would say 500-1500 actually on this side of the Ocean at the moment.

 

 

Just a quick note, but the Shaido have between 400 and 500 channeling Wise Ones, and the discussion of this makes it clear that this is the norm for each Clan. As such there will be somewhere between 4,800 and 6,000 Wise Ones who can channel.

[Sasha Grayes]

Aiel Wise Ones numbers are not really a good indication of battle potential. Aiel don't put too much emphasis on power strength. Maybe a couple of thousand of those are Morgase level channeling ability.

[Luckers]

Anyway, the number of channelers would be 3-5% of the current population. And of those a smaller percentage would be sparkers, meaning in this day in age it wouldn't be uncommon for a large percentage of that 3-5% to not even know they could channel (with the exception of the wise ones and to a lesser the Seanchan since there nonsparkers can't technically channel).

 

 

Side note the second, Vardamus, on 1% of the modern population can channel (though this is slightly higher in both Shara and Seanchan). In the Age of Legends 3% could channel.

[Barid Bel Medar]

Just a quick note, but the Shaido have between 400 and 500 channeling Wise Ones, and the discussion of this makes it clear that this is the norm for each Clan. As such there will be somewhere between 4,800 and 6,000 Wise Ones who can channel.

 

Ah, you are correct, my bad.

 

Edit: Poor mathematical skills. It makes more sense now hahaha.

[Vardar]

Anyway, the number of channelers would be 3-5% of the current population. And of those a smaller percentage would be sparkers, meaning in this day in age it wouldn't be uncommon for a large percentage of that 3-5% to not even know they could channel (with the exception of the wise ones and to a lesser the Seanchan since there nonsparkers can't technically channel).

 

 

Side note the second, Vardamus, on 1% of the modern population can channel (though this is slightly higher in both Shara and Seanchan). In the Age of Legends 3% could channel.

 

Damn really? When did it drop so low? See that's where I'm confused, if channeling isn't heriditary, how can you cull it out? (I recall the debate about it not definetly being heriditary, and the Trollocs and Myrdall support that since no Myr breed yet the trollocs keep the gene active).

 

Aiel Wise Ones numbers are not really a good indication of battle potential. Aiel don't put too much emphasis on power strength. Maybe a couple of thousand of those are Morgase level channeling ability.

 

I think we have to assume the amount of Channelers that are that weak would be in the same proportion to the ones who are Rand strong. Thus, the vast majority of them would be of middling strength. Applying a very general 5% rule (5% top 5% bottom)

[Vardar]

I agree with you there. But I was talking about Channeller v Channeller in this instance. The question being about can the Shadow match Channellers of the Light. Now it may be that this isn't a problem, but how many are willing to kill even Black Ajah without hesitating? Executing tried Black Ajah is all very good, but killing in cold blood is something else entirely.

 

But yeah, most of what you said I agree.

 

The other thing I wanted to explore in the last post was the potential for dirty tricks. Like taking hostages, threatening innocents etc...

 

The Light is on the back foot inherently, they are fighting to protect, the Shadow only fights to destroy.

 

They would sacrifice millions of Shadowspawn and darkfriends to achieve their goals, but the Light won't be so unrestricted.

 

That sorta stuff is what I am talking about. They have to defend children and non-combatants, cities etc...

 

While I agree, I think in an all out battle for the world, even the light side would understand things and people will be sacrificed. And it'll be harder to move into position to attacks cities and reach the noncombatants without Gateways, since the vast majority of their army can't travel that way. and with gateways the Light can counterattack quickly.

 

And even Channeler vs Channeler the AS already know they're DF's therefore no oath should hold them. (The oath was Shadowspawn and DF right? Or am I confusing it)

[Barid Bel Medar]

 

 

And even Channeler vs Channeler the AS already know they're DF's therefore no oath should hold them. (The oath was Shadowspawn and DF right? Or am I confusing it)

 

Yeah, they are allowed to use violence on Darkfriends.

 

I still think that they would have more trouble, they would only sacrifice as a last resort and such, but yeah, I do agree with what you say. They learn quickly, once something has gotten through their stubborn reluctance to change, they can adapt well.

 

It isn't like they will end up losing in any case, I just think that the Shadow Channelers are more suited for the Last Battle and killing.

[Vardar]

And even Channeler vs Channeler the AS already know they're DF's therefore no oath should hold them. (The oath was Shadowspawn and DF right? Or am I confusing it)

 

Yeah, they are allowed to use violence on Darkfriends.

 

I still think that they would have more trouble, they would only sacrifice as a last resort and such, but yeah, I do agree with what you say. They learn quickly, once something has gotten through their stubborn reluctance to change, they can adapt well.

 

It isn't like they will end up losing in any case, I just think that the Shadow Channelers are more suited for the Last Battle and killing.

 

I kinda wish they would. I mean that would be one hell of an ending. They are more suited for killing, but thats why they are at a disadvantage, Killing isn't everything. Still gonna be one hell of a battle.

[Barid Bel Medar]

Heh, depending on how it was done it could be the greatest ending, or the worst.

 

I agree with you about the killing part. That has been a huge theme throughout the series, about strength and power not being the only way. We see it in the Forsaken, Rand's plot and most recently -and the biggest- with Androl. The weakest of the asha'man, ignored by the Shadow likely ending up saving the day.

 

Of course, my assumptions are based on generalizations. They SHOULD have the upper hand, like the Forsaken SHOULD wipe the floor with 3rd Agers. However, that is rarely the case.

 

Re: Channeling ability:

 

I recall RJ saying it was both a genetic and a soul thing.

 

Here it is:

INTERVIEW: Oct 27th, 2005

KOD Signing Report - Chris (Paraphrased)

 

CHRIS

There were a few questions about his series, one that I asked was: if channeling was genetic, did the Forsaken need bodies that were genetically compatible for them to be able to use the Power?

 

ROBERT JORDAN

His answer was that channeling is not just a recessive or dominant gene, rather both genetic and in the soul

.

 

He explains it some more here:

 

INTERVIEW: Oct 2nd, 2005

Robert Jordan's Blog: ONE MORE TIME

 

 

ROBERT JORDAN

For Papazen, while I have spoken of souls being born with the ability to channel in response to questions, I think of it as being genetic also. In the Age of Legends, between 2 and 3% of people had some ability, following a bell curve distribution in strength. For over 3000 years, though, Aes Sedai have been removing men who actually learned to channel from the gene pool. They have been very efficient at this. As a result, the "present day" sees about 1% of the population who can learn to channel, with a much, much smaller percentage of that being born with the spark.

 

The way I see it working is that certain souls have the ability to channel. For the example, lets say 1 in 10 souls can channel.

 

Genetics helps increase the chance that "channeling souls" are born into a body.

 

IF two parents have the ability to channel, the chances of a channeling soul being born might be, instead of 1 in 10, the average, 1 in 5.

 

Conversely, two non-channeling parents might reduce the chance of a channeling soul being born to 1 in 20.

 

Thus, with male channelers basically hunted and killed for 3000 years, the chances of channelers being born are less. More of the non-channeling souls being taken out of the "soul pool" at birth.

 

It makes sense in a way aswell.It could mean that with the lack of channelers over 3000 years, for the Last Battle, a heap more channelers could be born at one time.

 

 

Edit: May or may not make sense, but this is how i see it.

 

Lets say that there are 100,000 souls in our soul pool. I am aware it is not a real figure, just using it as an example.

 

We have 100,000 souls to be born.

 

At any time, let's say that half of those souls are alive at one point, and that they are recycled evenly. ( I know it isn't the case, but for the purposes of making the point, bear with me)

 

Again, I will use the example of 1 in 10 souls are channelers.

 

SO we have 50,000 souls alive, 50,000 souls ready to be revived at any point.

 

Out of the 100,000, 10,000 would be channelers.

 

 

In the AoL, if there was about 3% channeler rate, that means 1,500 would be born channelers and 35,000 non channelers. Leaving 8500 channeling souls availible and 65,000 non-channeling souls. Channeling souls live longer than normal, so the non-channeling souls would build up, and the chances of having a channeling child, despite the genetic factor would go down.

 

In the third age, however, it would be different.

 

Only 500 channelers would be availible after the culling, around 1% now. 500 channelers and 45,000 non-channelers.

 

That means that 9,500 channeling souls would be available compared with 55,000 non-channeling souls.

 

Thus, the birth rate of channelers would eventually have to increase due to the bigger numbers. Obviously it would make a much, much bigger difference in reality, since there are probably billions of souls.

 

In any case, if anyone actually got this far with even a slight clue as to what I am talking about, this is why I believe that more channelers, and more old Talents are appearing just in time for the Last Battle.

[Wandering Channeler]

Aiel Wise Ones numbers are not really a good indication of battle potential. Aiel don't put too much emphasis on power strength. Maybe a couple of thousand of those are Morgase level channeling ability.

 

I was under the impression that the wise ones were more useful at dumai's wells than the aes sedai even once the "must be in danger" clause was met. Did I take this incorrectly?

 

Nice breakdown Barid.